Interfaces of Malignant and Immunologic Clonal Dynamics in Ovarian Cancer.

High-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSC) exhibits extensive malignant clonal diversity with widespread but non-random patterns of disease dissemination. We investigated whether local immune microenvironment factors shape tumor progression properties at the interface of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) and cancer cells. Through multi-region study of 212 samples from 38 patients with whole-genome sequencing, immunohistochemistry, histologic image analysis, gene expression profiling, and T and B cell receptor sequencing, we identified three immunologic subtypes across samples and extensive within-patient diversity. Epithelial CD8+ TILs negatively associated with malignant diversity, reflecting immunological pruning of tumor clones inferred by neoantigen depletion, HLA I loss of heterozygosity, and spatial tracking between T cell and tumor clones. In addition, combinatorial prognostic effects of mutational processes and immune properties were observed, illuminating how specific genomic aberration types associate with immune response and impact survival. We conclude that within-patient spatial immune microenvironment variation shapes intraperitoneal malignant spread, provoking new evolutionary perspectives on HGSC clonal dispersion.

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.

The Dynamic Spatial Structure of Flocks.

Studies of collective motion have heretofore been dominated by a thermodynamic perspective in which the emergent "flocked" phases are analyzed in terms of their time-averaged orientational and spatial properties. Studies that attempt to scrutinize the dynamical processes that spontaneously drive the formation of these flocks from initially random configurations are far more rare, perhaps owing to the fact that said processes occur far from the eventual long-time steady state of the system and thus lie outside the scope of traditional statistical mechanics. For systems whose dynamics are simulated numerically, the nonstationary distribution of system configurations can be sampled at different time points, and the time evolution of the average structural properties of the system can be quantified. In this paper, we employ this strategy to characterize the spatial dynamics of the standard Vicsek flocking model using two correlation functions common to condensed matter physics. We demonstrate, for modest system sizes with 800 to 2000 agents, that the self-assembly dynamics can be characterized by three distinct and disparate time scales that we associate with the corresponding physical processes of clustering (compaction), relaxing (expansion), and mixing (rearrangement). We further show that the behavior of these correlation functions can be used to reliably distinguish between phenomenologically similar models with different underlying interactions and, in some cases, even provide a direct measurement of key model parameters.

Predicting ophthalmic clinic non-attendance using machine learning: Development and validation of models using nationwide data.

BACKGROUND: Ophthalmic clinic non-attendance in New Zealand is associated with poorer health outcomes, marked inequities and costs NZD$30 million per annum. Initiatives to improve attendance typically involve expensive and ineffective brute-force strategies. The aim was to develop machine learning models to accurately predict ophthalmic clinic non-attendance. METHODS: This multicentre, retrospective observational study developed and validated predictive models of clinic non-attendance. Attendance data for 3.1 million appointments from all New Zealand government-funded ophthalmology clinics from 2009 to 2018 were aggregated for analysis. Repeated ten-fold cross validation was used to train and optimise XGBoost and logistic regression models on several demographic and clinic-related variables. Models developed using the entire training set were compared with those restricted to regional subsets of the data. RESULTS: In the testing data set from 2019, there were 407 574 appointments (median [range] age, 66 [0-105] years; 210 365 [51.6%] female) with a non-attendance rate of 5.7% (n = 23 309 missed appointments), XGBoost models trained on each region's data achieved the highest mean AUROC of 0.764 (SD 0.058) and mean AUPRC of 0.157 (SD 0.072). XGBoost performed better than logistic regression (mean AUROC = 0.756, p = 0.002). Training individual XGBoost models for each region led to better performance than training a single model on the complete nationwide dataset (mean AUROC = 0.754, p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: Machine learning algorithms can predict ophthalmic clinic non-attendance with relatively basic demographic and clinic data. These findings suggest further research examining implementation of such algorithms in scheduling systems or public health interventions may be useful.

Toxicokinetic Modeling of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substance Concentrations within Developing Zebrafish (Danio rerio) Populations.

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are pervasive environmental contaminants, and their relative stability and high bioaccumulation potential create a challenging risk assessment problem. Zebrafish (Danio rerio) data, in principle, can be synthesized within a quantitative adverse outcome pathway (qAOP) framework to link molecular activity with individual or population level hazards. However, even as qAOP models are still in their infancy, there is a need to link internal dose and toxicity endpoints in a more rigorous way to further not only qAOP models but adverse outcome pathway frameworks in general. We address this problem by suggesting refinements to the current state of toxicokinetic modeling for the early development zebrafish exposed to PFAS up to 120 h post-fertilization. Our approach describes two key physiological transformation phenomena of the developing zebrafish: dynamic volume of an individual and dynamic hatching of a population. We then explore two different modeling strategies to describe the mass transfer, with one strategy relying on classical kinetic rates and the other incorporating mechanisms of membrane transport and adsorption/binding potential. Moving forward, we discuss the challenges of extending this model in both timeframe and chemical class, in conjunction with providing a conceptual framework for its integration with ongoing qAOP modeling efforts.

Mitigating Moral Distress in Leaders of Healthcare Organizations: A Scoping Review.

GOAL: Moral distress literature is firmly rooted in the nursing and clinician experience, with a paucity of literature that considers the extent to which moral distress affects clinical and administrative healthcare leaders. Moreover, the little evidence that has been collected on this phenomenon has not been systematically mapped to identify key areas for both theoretical and practical elaboration. We conducted a scoping review to frame our understanding of this largely unexplored dynamic of moral distress and better situate our existing knowledge of moral distress and leadership. METHODS: Using moral distress theory as our conceptual framework, we evaluated recent literature on moral distress and leadership to understand how prior studies have conceptualized the effects of moral distress. Our search yielded 1,640 total abstracts. Further screening with the PRISMA process resulted in 72 included articles. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Our scoping review found that leaders-not just their employees- personally experience moral distress. In addition, we identified an important role for leaders and organizations in addressing the theoretical conceptualization and practical effects of moral distress. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: Although moral distress is unlikely to ever be eliminated, the literature in this review points to a singular need for organizational responses that are intended to intervene at the level of the organization itself, not just at the individual level. Best practices require creating stronger organizational cultures that are designed to mitigate moral distress. This can be achieved through transparency and alignment of personal, professional, and organizational values.

Crosstalk and the Dynamical Modularity of Feed-Forward Loops in Transcriptional Regulatory Networks.

Network motifs, such as the feed-forward loop (FFL), introduce a range of complex behaviors to transcriptional regulatory networks, yet such properties are typically determined from their isolated study. We characterize the effects of crosstalk on FFL dynamics by modeling the cross regulation between two different FFLs and evaluate the extent to which these patterns occur in vivo. Analytical modeling suggests that crosstalk should overwhelmingly affect individual protein-expression dynamics. Counter to this expectation we find that entire FFLs are more likely than expected to resist the effects of crosstalk (≈20% for one crosstalk interaction) and remain dynamically modular. The likelihood that cross-linked FFLs are dynamically correlated increases monotonically with additional crosstalk, but is independent of the specific regulation type or connectivity of the interactions. Just one additional regulatory interaction is sufficient to drive the FFL dynamics to a statistically different state. Despite the potential for modularity between sparsely connected network motifs, Escherichia coli (E. coli) appears to favor crosstalk wherein at least one of the cross-linked FFLs remains modular. A gene ontology analysis reveals that stress response processes are significantly overrepresented in the cross-linked motifs found within E. coli. Although the daunting complexity of biological networks affects the dynamical properties of individual network motifs, some resist and remain modular, seemingly insulated from extrinsic perturbations-an intriguing possibility for nature to consistently and reliably provide certain network functionalities wherever the need arise.

Quantitative Adverse Outcome Pathways and Their Application to Predictive Toxicology.

A quantitative adverse outcome pathway (qAOP) consists of one or more biologically based, computational models describing key event relationships linking a molecular initiating event (MIE) to an adverse outcome. A qAOP provides quantitative, dose-response, and time-course predictions that can support regulatory decision-making. Herein we describe several facets of qAOPs, including (a) motivation for development, (b) technical considerations, (c) evaluation of confidence, and (d) potential applications. The qAOP used as an illustrative example for these points describes the linkage between inhibition of cytochrome P450 19A aromatase (the MIE) and population-level decreases in the fathead minnow (FHM; Pimephales promelas). The qAOP consists of three linked computational models for the following: (a) the hypothalamic-pitutitary-gonadal axis in female FHMs, where aromatase inhibition decreases the conversion of testosterone to 17ß-estradiol (E2), thereby reducing E2-dependent vitellogenin (VTG; egg yolk protein precursor) synthesis, (b) VTG-dependent egg development and spawning (fecundity), and (c) fecundity-dependent population trajectory. While development of the example qAOP was based on experiments with FHMs exposed to the aromatase inhibitor fadrozole, we also show how a toxic equivalence (TEQ) calculation allows use of the qAOP to predict effects of another, untested aromatase inhibitor, iprodione. While qAOP development can be resource-intensive, the quantitative predictions obtained, and TEQ-based application to multiple chemicals, may be sufficient to justify the cost for some applications in regulatory decision-making.

Development of a fluorescent enzyme-linked DNA aptamer-magnetic bead sandwich assay and portable fluorometer for sensitive and rapid listeria detection.

A fluorescent DNA aptamer-magnetic bead sandwich assay was developed to detect listeriolysin O (LLO) protein from pathogenic Listeria bacteria using a peroxidase-linked system, Amplex Ultra Red (AUR; derivatized resazurin) substrate, and a custom-designed handheld fluorometer. The assay is highly sensitive with demonstrated limits of detection (LODs) in the range of 4 to 61 L. monocytogenes cells or the equivalent LLO produced by 4 to 61 cells on average in separate titration trials. Total assay processing and analysis time was approximately 30 mins. The assay has demonstrated the ability to detect 6 species of Listeria as desired by the USDA's Food Safety Inspection Service (FSIS). The portable system was designed to be used primarily with surface swab samples from fomites, but it can also be used to assess enrichment cultures. The minimal time to detect a positive enrichment culture in our hands from an initial 10 cell inoculum in 200 ml of broth has been 8 h post-incubation at 37 °C in shaker flask cultures. An optional automated magnetic bead assay processing and wash device capable of simultaneously processing 6 samples with low and consistent fluorescence background for higher volume central laboratories is also described.

Clonal evolution of high-grade serous ovarian carcinoma from primary to recurrent disease.

High-grade serous carcinoma (HGSC) is the most common and fatal form of ovarian cancer. While most tumours are highly sensitive to cytoreductive surgery and platinum- and taxane-based chemotherapy, the majority of patients experience recurrence of treatment-resistant tumours. The clonal origin and mutational adaptations associated with recurrent disease are poorly understood. We performed whole exome sequencing on tumour cells harvested from ascites at three time points (primary, first recurrence, and second recurrence) for three HGSC patients receiving standard treatment. Somatic point mutations and small insertions and deletions were identified by comparison to constitutional DNA. The clonal structure and evolution of tumours were inferred from patterns of mutant allele frequencies. TP53 mutations were predominant in all patients at all time points, consistent with the known founder role of this gene. Tumours from all three patients also harboured mutations associated with cell cycle checkpoint function and Golgi vesicle trafficking. There was convergence of germline and somatic variants within the DNA repair, ECM, cell cycle control, and Golgi vesicle pathways. The vast majority of somatic variants found in recurrent tumours were present in primary tumours. Our findings highlight both known and novel pathways that are commonly mutated in HGSC. Moreover, they provide the first evidence at single nucleotide resolution that recurrent HGSC arises from multiple clones present in the primary tumour with negligible accumulation of new mutations during standard treatment.

Development of a fluorescent enzyme-linked DNA aptamer-magnetic bead sandwich assay and portable fluorometer for sensitive and rapid leishmania detection in sandflies.

A fluorescent peroxidase-linked DNA aptamer-magnetic bead sandwich assay is described which detects as little as 100 ng of soluble protein extracted from Leishmania major promastigotes with a high molarity chaotropic salt. Lessons learned during development of the assay are described and elucidate the pros and cons of using fluorescent dyes or nanoparticles and quantum dots versus a more consistent peroxidase-linked Amplex Ultra Red (AUR; similar to resazurin) fluorescence version of the assay. While all versions of the assays were highly sensitive, the AUR-based version exhibited lower variability between tests. We hypothesize that the AUR version of this assay is more consistent, especially at low analyte levels, because the fluorescent product of AUR is liberated into bulk solution and readily detectable while fluorophores attached to the reporter aptamer might occasionally be hidden behind magnetic beads near the detection limit. Conversely, fluorophores could be quenched by nearby beads or other proximal fluorophores on the high end of analyte concentration, if packed into a small area after magnetic collection when an enzyme-linked system is not used. A highly portable and rechargeable battery-operated fluorometer with on board computer and color touchscreen is also described which can be used for rapid (<1 h) and sensitive detection of Leishmania promastigote protein extracts (∼ 100 ng per sample) in buffer or sandfly homogenates for mapping of L. major parasite geographic distributions in wild sandfly populations.

Comprehensive Factors for Predicting the Complications of Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: This article focuses on extracting a standard feature set for predicting the complications of diabetes mellitus by systematically reviewing the literature. It is conducted and reported by following the guidelines of PRISMA, a well-known systematic review and meta-analysis method. The research articles included in this study are extracted using the search engine "Web of Science" over eight years. The most common complications of diabetes, diabetic neuropathy, retinopathy, nephropathy, and cardiovascular diseases are considered in the study. METHOD: The features used to predict the complications are identified and categorised by scrutinising the standards of electronic health records. RESULT: Overall, 102 research articles have been reviewed, resulting in 59 frequent features being identified. Nineteen attributes are recognised as a standard in all four considered complications, which are age, gender, ethnicity, weight, height, BMI, smoking history, HbA1c, SBP, eGFR, DBP, HDL, LDL, total cholesterol, triglyceride, use of insulin, duration of diabetes, family history of CVD, and diabetes. The existence of a well-accepted and updated feature set for health analytics models to predict the complications of diabetes mellitus is a vital and contemporary requirement. A widely accepted feature set is beneficial for benchmarking the risk factors of complications of diabetes. CONCLUSION: This study is a thorough literature review to provide a clear state of the art for academicians, clinicians, and other stakeholders regarding the risk factors and their importance.

Predicting glucose level with an adapted branch predictor.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Diabetes mellitus manifests as prolonged elevated blood glucose levels resulting from impaired insulin production. Such high glucose levels over a long period of time damage multiple internal organs. To mitigate this condition, researchers and engineers have developed the closed loop artificial pancreas consisting of a continuous glucose monitor and an insulin pump connected via a microcontroller or smartphone. A problem, however, is how to accurately predict short term future glucose levels in order to exert efficient glucose-level control. Much work in the literature focuses on least prediction error as a key metric and therefore pursues complex prediction methods such a deep learning. Such an approach neglects other important and significant design issues such as method complexity (impacting interpretability and safety), hardware requirements for low-power devices such as the insulin pump, the required amount of input data for training (potentially rendering the method infeasible for new patients), and the fact that very small improvements in accuracy may not have significant clinical benefit. METHODS: We propose a novel low-complexity, explainable blood glucose prediction method derived from the Intel P6 branch predictor algorithm. We use Meta-Differential Evolution to determine predictor parameters on training data splits of the benchmark datasets we use. A comparison is made between our new algorithm and a state-of-the-art deep-learning method for blood glucose level prediction. RESULTS: To evaluate the new method, the Blood Glucose Level Prediction Challenge benchmark dataset is utilised. On the official test data split after training, the state-of-the-art deep learning method predicted glucose levels 30 min ahead of current time with 96.3% of predicted glucose levels having relative error less than 30% (which is equivalent to the safe zone of the Surveillance Error Grid). Our simpler, interpretable approach prolonged the prediction horizon by another 5 min with 95.8% of predicted glucose levels of all patients having relative error less than 30%. CONCLUSIONS: When considering predictive performance as assessed using the Blood Glucose Level Prediction Challenge benchmark dataset and Surveillance Error Grid metrics, we found that the new algorithm delivered comparable predictive accuracy performance, while operating only on the glucose-level signal with considerably less computational complexity.

First-passage time analysis of a one-dimensional diffusion-reaction model: application to protein transport along DNA.

BACKGROUND: Proteins search along the DNA for targets, such as transcription initiation sequences, according to one-dimensional diffusion, which is interrupted by micro- and macro-hopping events and intersegmental transfers that occur under close packing conditions. RESULTS: A one-dimensional diffusion-reaction model in the form of difference-differential equations is proposed to analyze the nonequilibrium protein sliding kinetics along a segment of bacterial DNA. A renormalization approach is used to derive an expression for the mean first-passage time to arrive at sites downstream of the origin from the occupation probabilities given by the individual transport equations. Monte Carlo simulations are employed to assess the validity of the proposed approach, and all results are interpreted within the context of bacterial transcription. CONCLUSIONS: Mean first-passage times decrease with increasing reaction rates, indicating that, on average, surviving proteins more rapidly locate downstream targets than their reaction-free counterparts, but at the price of increasing rarity. Two qualitatively different screening regimes are identified according to whether the search process operates under "small" or "large" values for the dissociation rate of the protein-DNA complex. Lower bounds are placed on the overall search time for varying reactive conditions. Good agreement with experimental estimates requires the reaction rate reside near the transition between both screening regimes, suggesting that biology balances a need for rapid searches against maximum exploration during each round of the sliding phase.

Gene discovery in EST sequences from the wheat leaf rust fungus Puccinia triticina sexual spores, asexual spores and haustoria, compared to other rust and corn smut fungi.

BACKGROUND: Rust fungi are biotrophic basidiomycete plant pathogens that cause major diseases on plants and trees world-wide, affecting agriculture and forestry. Their biotrophic nature precludes many established molecular genetic manipulations and lines of research. The generation of genomic resources for these microbes is leading to novel insights into biology such as interactions with the hosts and guiding directions for breakthrough research in plant pathology. RESULTS: To support gene discovery and gene model verification in the genome of the wheat leaf rust fungus, Puccinia triticina (Pt), we have generated Expressed Sequence Tags (ESTs) by sampling several life cycle stages. We focused on several spore stages and isolated haustorial structures from infected wheat, generating 17,684 ESTs. We produced sequences from both the sexual (pycniospores, aeciospores and teliospores) and asexual (germinated urediniospores) stages of the life cycle. From pycniospores and aeciospores, produced by infecting the alternate host, meadow rue (Thalictrum speciosissimum), 4,869 and 1,292 reads were generated, respectively. We generated 3,703 ESTs from teliospores produced on the senescent primary wheat host. Finally, we generated 6,817 reads from haustoria isolated from infected wheat as well as 1,003 sequences from germinated urediniospores. Along with 25,558 previously generated ESTs, we compiled a database of 13,328 non-redundant sequences (4,506 singlets and 8,822 contigs). Fungal genes were predicted using the EST version of the self-training GeneMarkS algorithm. To refine the EST database, we compared EST sequences by BLASTN to a set of 454 pyrosequencing-generated contigs and Sanger BAC-end sequences derived both from the Pt genome, and to ESTs and genome reads from wheat. A collection of 6,308 fungal genes was identified and compared to sequences of the cereal rusts, Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici (Pgt) and stripe rust, P. striiformis f. sp. tritici (Pst), and poplar leaf rust Melampsora species, and the corn smut fungus, Ustilago maydis (Um). While extensive homologies were found, many genes appeared novel and species-specific; over 40% of genes did not match any known sequence in existing databases. Focusing on spore stages, direct comparison to Um identified potential functional homologs, possibly allowing heterologous functional analysis in that model fungus. Many potentially secreted protein genes were identified by similarity searches against genes and proteins of Pgt and Melampsora spp., revealing apparent orthologs. CONCLUSIONS: The current set of Pt unigenes contributes to gene discovery in this major cereal pathogen and will be invaluable for gene model verification in the genome sequence.

Magnetic induction inspires a schematic theory for crosstalk-driven relaxation dynamics in cells.

Establishing formal mathematical analogies between disparate physical systems can be a powerful tool, allowing for the well studied behavior of one system to be directly translated into predictions about the behavior of another that may be harder to probe. In this paper we lay the foundation for such an analogy between the macroscale electrodynamics of simple magnetic circuits and the microscale chemical kinetics of transcriptional regulation in cells. By artificially allowing the inductor coils of the former to elastically expand under the action of their Lorentz pressure, we introduce nonlinearities into the system that we interpret through the lens of our analogy as a schematic model for the impact of crosstalk on the rates of gene expression near steady state. Synthetic plasmids introduced into a cell must compete for a finite pool of metabolic and enzymatic resources against a maelstrom of crisscrossing biological processes, and our theory makes sensible predictions about how this noisy background might impact the expression profiles of synthetic constructs without explicitly modeling the kinetics of numerous interconnected regulatory interactions. We conclude the paper with a discussion of how our theory might be expanded to a broader class of plasmid circuits and how our predictions might be tested experimentally.

Devil in the details: Mechanistic variations impact information transfer across models of transcriptional cascades.

The transcriptional network determines a cell's internal state by regulating protein expression in response to changes in the local environment. Due to the interconnected nature of this network, information encoded in the abundance of various proteins will often propagate across chains of noisy intermediate signaling events. The data-processing inequality (DPI) leads us to expect that this intracellular game of "telephone" should degrade this type of signal, with longer chains losing successively more information to noise. However, a previous modeling effort predicted that because the steps of these signaling cascades do not truly represent independent stages of data processing, the limits of the DPI could seemingly be surpassed, and the amount of transmitted information could actually increase with chain length. What that work did not examine was whether this regime of growing information transmission was attainable by a signaling system constrained by the mechanistic details of more complex protein-binding kinetics. Here we address this knowledge gap through the lens of information theory by examining a model that explicitly accounts for the binding of each transcription factor to DNA. We analyze this model by comparing stochastic simulations of the fully nonlinear kinetics to simulations constrained by the linear response approximations that displayed a regime of growing information. Our simulations show that even when molecular binding is considered, there remains a regime wherein the transmitted information can grow with cascade length, but ends after a critical number of links determined by the kinetic parameter values. This inflection point marks where correlations decay in response to an oversaturation of binding sites, screening informative transcription factor fluctuations from further propagation down the chain where they eventually become indistinguishable from the surrounding levels of noise.

COVID-19 infection data encode a dynamic reproduction number in response to policy decisions with secondary wave implications.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus is responsible for the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which has spread to populations throughout the continental United States. Most state and local governments have adopted some level of "social distancing" policy, but infections have continued to spread despite these efforts. Absent a vaccine, authorities have few other tools by which to mitigate further spread of the virus. This begs the question of how effective social policy really is at reducing new infections that, left alone, could potentially overwhelm the existing hospitalization capacity of many states. We developed a mathematical model that captures correlations between some state-level "social distancing" policies and infection kinetics for all U.S. states, and use it to illustrate the link between social policy decisions, disease dynamics, and an effective reproduction number that changes over time, for case studies of Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Washington states. In general, our findings indicate that the potential for second waves of infection, which result after reopening states without an increase to immunity, can be mitigated by a return of social distancing policies as soon as possible after the waves are detected.

Modeling the impacts of a simple meiotic gene drive on small, homeostatic populations.

Gene drives offer unprecedented control over the fate of natural ecosystems by leveraging non-Mendelian inheritance mechanisms to proliferate synthetic genes across wild populations. However, these benefits are offset by a need to avoid the potentially disastrous consequences of unintended ecological interactions. The efficacy of many gene-editing drives has been brought into question due to predictions that they will inevitably be thwarted by the emergence of drive-resistant mutations, but these predictions derive largely from models of large or infinite populations that cannot be driven to extinction faster than mutations can fixate. To address this issue, we characterize the impact of a simple, meiotic gene drive on a small, homeostatic population whose genotypic composition may vary due to the stochasticity inherent in natural mating events (e.g., partner choice, number of offspring) or the genetic inheritance process (e.g., mutation rate, gene drive fitness). To determine whether the ultimate genotypic fate of such a population is sensitive to such stochastic fluctuations, we compare the results of two dynamical models: a deterministic model that attempts to predict how the genetics of an average population evolve over successive generations, and an agent-based model that examines how stable these predictions are to fluctuations. We find that, even on average, our stochastic model makes qualitatively distinct predictions from those of the deterministic model, and we identify the source of these discrepancies as a dynamic instability that arises at short times, when genetic diversity is maximized as a consequence of the gene drive's rapid proliferation. While we ultimately conclude that extinction can only beat out the fixation of drive-resistant mutations over a limited region of parameter space, the reason for this is more complex than previously understood, which could open new avenues for engineered gene drives to circumvent this weakness.

Modeling a synthetic aptamer-based riboswitch biosensor sensitive to low hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) concentrations.

RNA aptamers are relatively short nucleic acid sequences that bind targets with high affinity, and when combined with a riboswitch that initiates translation of a fluorescent reporter protein, can be used as a biosensor for chemical detection in various types of media. These processes span target binding at the molecular scale to fluorescence detection at the macroscale, which involves a number of intermediate rate-limiting physical (e.g., molecular conformation change) and biochemical changes (e.g., reaction velocity), which together complicate assay design. Here we describe a mathematical model developed to aid environmental detection of hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) using the DsRed fluorescent reporter protein, but is general enough to potentially predict fluorescence from a broad range of water-soluble chemicals given the values of just a few kinetic rate constants as input. If we expose a riboswitch test population of Escherichia coli bacteria to a chemical dissolved in media, then the model predicts an empirically distinct, power-law relationship between the exposure concentration and the elapsed time of exposure. This relationship can be used to deduce an exposure time that meets or exceeds the optical threshold of a fluorescence detection device and inform new biosensor designs.