Focused deterrence: A protocol for a realist multisite randomised controlled trial for evaluating a violence prevention intervention in the UK.

INTRODUCTION: Focused deterrence (FD) is a frequently cited intervention for preventing violence, particularly against violent urban gangs. The Youth Endowment Fund (YEF) believes it could be effective in the UK, based primarily on research conducted in the US. However, we contend that these studies have inadequate methodological designs, lack of rigorous testing, and small sample sizes. Therefore, the evidence supporting focused deterrence as an effective method, particularly outside the US, is inconclusive. The aim of the protocol is to better understand the potential effects of FD in the context of the UK, using a multisite evaluation experimental design to more closely investigate the evidence of its likely impact. METHODS: We planned a realist randomised controlled trial. The design is focused on a multisite trial consisting of two-arm randomised experiments in five locations. Each trial location will test their implementation of a core programme specified by the funder. The multisite nature will allow us to understand differential impacts between locations, improving the external validity of the results. Participants will be randomly selected from a wider pool of eligible individuals for the intervention. We estimate a sample size of approximately N = 1,700 individuals is required. Based on this pooled sample size, a relative reduction of 26% would be detectable in 80% of trials. The trial is coupled with a formative process evaluation of delivery and fidelity. The formative evaluation will use a mixed methods design. The qualitative aspect will include semi-structured cross-sectional and longitudinal interviews with programme leads, programme delivery team, and programme participants, as well as observations of the meetings between the programme delivery team (i.e., community navigators/mentors) and programme participants. The quantitative data for the formative evaluation will be gathered by the sites themselves and consist of routine outcome performance monitoring using administrative data. Sampling for interviews and observations will vary, with the researchers aiming for a higher number of individuals included in the first round of cross-sectional interviews and retaining as many as possible for repeat interviews and observations. DISCUSSION: This protocol outlines the process and impact evaluation methodology for the most extensive multisite evaluation of focused deterrence to date in the UK. Spanning five distinct sites with seven trials, the evaluation includes a cohort of 2,000 individuals, marking it as the only multisite trial of focused deterrence. Employing an integrated realist evaluation framework, the study uses qualitative and quantitative research methods. The anticipated findings will offer pivotal insights for formulating future violence prevention policies in the UK. They are also expected to contribute significantly to the corpus of literature on violence prevention and intervention evaluation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Protocol registration: ISRCTN: 11650008 4th June 2023.

Inward- versus outward-focused bioeconomy strategies for British Columbia's forest products industry: a harvested wood products carbon storage and emission perspective.

BACKGROUND: British Columbia's (BC) extensive forest resources provide climate change mitigation opportunities that are available to few other jurisdictions. However, as a consequence of the Mountain Pine Beetle outbreak and large-scale wildfires, BC is anticipating reduced roundwood harvest for the next decades. Progress towards more climatically efficient utilization of forest resources is needed. This research quantitatively compared the greenhouse gas emission consequences of nine harvested wood products trade and consumption strategies. Inward-focused strategies use wood products within Canada to achieve emission reduction objectives, while outward-focused strategies encourage exports of wood products. RESULTS: In the business-as-usual baseline scenario, average emissions arising from BC-originated harvested wood products between 2016 and 2050 were 40 MtCO2e yr-1. The estimated theoretical boundaries were 11 MtCO2e yr-1 and 54 MtCO2e yr-1, under the scenarios of using all harvests for either construction purposes or biofuel production, respectively. Due to the constrained domestic market size, inward-focused scenarios that were based on population and market capacity achieved 0.3-10% emission reductions compared to the baseline. The international markets were larger, however the emissions varied substantially between 68% reduction and 25% increase depending on wood products' end uses. CONCLUSIONS: Future bioeconomy strategies can have a substantial impact on emissions. This analysis revealed that from a carbon storage and emission perspective, it was better to consume BC's harvests within Canada and only export those products that would be used for long-lived construction applications, provided that construction market access beyond the US was available. However, restricting export of wood products destined for short-lived uses such as pulp and wood pellets would have significant economic and social impacts. On the other hand, inward-focused strategies had a small but politically and environmentally meaningful contribution to BC's climate action plan. This study also revealed the conflicts between a demand-driven bioeconomy and targeted environmental outcomes. A hierarchical incentive system that could co-exist with other market drivers may help achieve emission reduction goals, but this would require a better quantitative understanding of wood products' substitution effects. While the analyses were conducted for BC, other regions that are net exporters of wood products may face similar issues.

Canadian biomass reserves for biorefining.

A lignocellulosic-based biorefining strategy may be supported by biomass reserves, created initially with residues from wood product processing or agriculture. Biomass reserves might be expanded using innovative management techniques that reduce vulnerability of feedstock in the forest products or agricultural supply chain. Forest-harvest residue removal, disturbance isolation, and precommercial thinnings might produce 20-33 x 10(6) mt/yr of feedstock for Canadian biorefineries. Energy plantations on marginal Canadian farmland might produce another 9-20 mt. Biomass reserves should be used to support first-generation biorefining installations for bioethanol production, development of which will lead to the creation of future high-value coproducts. Suggestions for Canadian policy reform to support biomass reserves are provided.

Effect of surfactants on separate hydrolysis fermentation and simultaneous saccharification fermentation of pretreated lodgepole pine.

The effects of surfactants addition on enzymatic hydrolysis and subsequent fermentation of steam exploded lodgepole pine (SELP) and ethanol pretreated lodgepole pine (EPLP) were investigated in this study. Supplementing Tween 80 during cellulase hydrolysis of SELP resulted in a 32% increase in the cellulose-to-glucose yield. However, little improvement was obtained from hydrolyzing EPLP in the presence of the same amount of surfactant. The positive effect of surfactants on SELP hydrolysis led to an increase in final ethanol yield after the fermentation. It was found that the addition of surfactant led to a substantial increase in the amount of free enzymes in the 48 h hydrolysates derived from both substrates. The effect of surfactant addition on final ethanol yield of simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) was also investigated by using SELP in the presence of additional furfural and hydroxymethylfurfural (HMF). The results showed that the surfactants slightly increased the conversion rates of furfural and HMF during SSF process by Saccharomyces cerevisiae. The presence of furfural and HMF at the experimental concentrations did not affect the final ethanol concentration either. The strategy of applying surfactants in cellulase recycling to reduce enzyme cost is presented.