Better Accuracy for Better Science . . . Through Random Conclusions.

Conducting research with human subjects can be difficult because of limited sample sizes and small empirical effects. We demonstrate that this problem can yield patterns of results that are practically indistinguishable from flipping a coin to determine the direction of treatment effects. We use this idea of random conclusions to establish a baseline for interpreting effect-size estimates, in turn producing more stringent thresholds for hypothesis testing and for statistical-power calculations. An examination of recent meta-analyses in psychology, neuroscience, and medicine confirms that, even if all considered effects are real, results involving small effects are indeed indistinguishable from random conclusions.

Using mobile technology to influence alcohol-impaired driving risk perceptions and decisions.

OBJECTIVE: Despite significant individual and societal risk, alcohol-impaired driving (AID) remains prevalent in the United States. Our aim was to determine whether breathalyzer-cued warning messages administered via mobile devices in the natural drinking environment could influence real-world AID cognitions and behaviors. METHOD: One hundred twenty young adults (53% women; mean age = 24.7) completed 6 weeks of ecological momentary assessment (EMA) and provided breathalyzer samples using a BACtrack Mobile Pro linked to their mobile device. On mornings after drinking episodes, participants reported their driving activities from the previous evening (787 episodes). Participants were randomly assigned to receive warning messages if they reached a breath alcohol concentration (BrAC) ≥ .05, or no messages. Participants in the warnings condition reported their willingness to drive and perceived danger of driving at EMA prompts (1,541 reports). RESULTS: We observed a significant effect of condition, such that the association between cumulative AID engagement and driving after reaching a BrAC of .05 was dampened among individuals in the warnings condition, compared to those in the no warnings condition. Receiving a warning message was associated with increased momentary perceived danger of driving and decreased willingness to drive. CONCLUSIONS: We found that BrAC-cued warning messages reduced the probability of AID and willingness to drive while impaired, and increased the perceived danger of driving after drinking. These results serve as proof-of-concept for the use of mobile technology to deliver an adaptive just-in-time intervention to reduce the probability of AID. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Decision strategies while intoxicated relate to alcohol-impaired driving attitudes and intentions.

OBJECTIVE: Approximately 28 million individuals engage in alcohol-impaired driving (AID) every year. This study investigated individuals' AID decision making strategies under intoxication, their variability across the breath alcohol concentration (BrAC) curve, and the association between strategy and AID attitudes, intentions, and behavior. METHOD: Seventy-nine adults (mean 23.9 years, 57% female) who drank alcohol ≥2 days per week and lived >2 miles away from their typical drinking locations completed an alcohol administration protocol and AID decision making task. AID attitudes, intentions, and behaviors were assessed repeatedly across the BrAC curve. Bayesian cognitive modeling identified decision strategies used by individuals on the AID decision making task, revealing whether alcohol consumption level and/or ride service cost factored into individuals' decisions to drive while impaired or obtain a ride. Additional analyses tested whether AID attitudes and intentions were related to individuals' decision strategies. RESULTS: Two decision strategies were examined on the ascending and descending limbs of the BrAC curve: compensatory (both consumption level and ride service cost factored into AID decisions) and non-compensatory (only consumption level factored into AID decisions). Switching to a compensatory strategy on the descending limb was associated with lower perceived intoxication, perceiving AID as less dangerous, and being willing to drive above the legal BrAC limit. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that risk for engaging in AID is higher for those using a cost-sensitive, compensatory strategy when making AID decisions under intoxication. Future research is needed to test whether AID countermeasures (e.g., subsidized ride services) are differentially effective according to decision strategy type. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Cumulative lifetime stress exposure predicts greater impulsivity and addictive behaviors.

The study investigated whether lifetime stress exposure is associated with greater impulsivity and addictive behavior. We also examined whether stress and impulsivity interactively predicted food addiction and alcohol-related behavior. Greater lifetime stress exposure was related to more impulsivity and food addictive behaviors, but not alcohol-related consequences. There were no interactions between lifetime stress exposure and impulsivity in predicting addictive behaviors. Exploratory analyses revealed that early and adulthood stress exposure predicted food addiction, whereas only adulthood stress predicted alcohol-related consequences. Therefore, lifetime stress exposure is related to impulsivity and addiction, but these effects differ by addiction outcome and specific timing of stress exposure.

Diurnal cortisol and decision making under risk in problem gambling.

The aim of this study was to assess the influence of diurnal cortisol profile on decision making under risk in individuals with problem gambling and a healthy control group. We examined the relationship between diurnal cortisol, assessed over the course of 2 days, and a battery of tasks that assessed decision making under risk, including the Columbia Card Task and the Cups Task. Thirty individuals with problem gambling and 29 healthy individuals took part in the study. Those with problem gambling showed blunted diurnal cortisol and more risk taking behavior compared with those in the healthy control group. Blunted cortisol profile was associated with more risky behavior and less sensitivity to losing money in problem gambling. These findings suggest that blunted stress physiology plays a role in specific parameters of risky decision making in problem gambling. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).