Effectiveness of a Multifaceted Implementation Strategy to Increase Equitable Hospital at Home Utilization: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The number of Hospital-at-Home (HaH) programs rapidly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic and after issuance of Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services' (CMS) Acute Hospital Care at Home (AHCaH) waiver. However, there remains little evidence on effective strategies to equitably expand HaH utilization. OBJECTIVE: Evaluate the effects of a multifaceted implementation strategy on HaH utilization over time. DESIGN: Before and after implementation evaluation using electronic health record (EHR) data and interrupted time series analysis, complemented by qualitative interviews with key stakeholders. PARTICIPANTS: Between December 2021 and December 2022, we identified adults hospitalized at six hospitals in North Carolina approved by CMS to participate in the AHCaH waiver program. Eligible adults met criteria for HaH transfer (HaH-eligible clinical condition, qualifying home environment). We conducted semi-structured interviews with 12 HaH patients and 10 referring clinicians. INTERVENTIONS: Two strategies were studied. The discrete implementation strategy (weeks 1-12) included clinician-directed educational outreach. The multifaceted implementation strategy (weeks 13-54) included ongoing clinician-directed educational outreach, local HaH assistance via nurse navigators, involvement of clinical service line executives, and individualized audit and feedback. MEASURES: We assessed weekly averaged HaH capacity utilization, weekly counts of unique referring providers, and patient characteristics. We analyzed themes from qualitative data to determine barriers and facilitators to HaH use. RESULTS: Our evaluation showed week-to-week increases in HaH capacity utilization during the multifaceted implementation strategy period, compared to discrete-period trends (slope-change odds ratio-1.02, 1.01-1.04). Counts of referring providers also increased week to week, compared to discrete-period trends (slope-change means ratio-1.05, 1.03-1.07). The increase in HaH utilization was largest among rural residents (11 to 34%). Barriers included HaH-related information gaps and referral challenges; facilitators included patient-centeredness of HaH care. CONCLUSIONS: A multifaceted implementation strategy was associated with increased HaH capacity utilization, provider adoption, and patient diversity. Health systems may consider similar, contextually relevant multicomponent approaches to equitably expand HaH.

The spectrum of functional tic-like behaviours: Data from an international registry.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Between 2019 and 2022, there was a marked rise in adolescents/young adults seeking urgent help for functional tic-like behaviours (FTLBs). Given the global scale of this phenomenon, we aimed to pool cases from different institutions in an international registry to better characterize this spectrum and facilitate future longitudinal observation. METHODS: An international collaborative group from 10 tertiary referral centres for tic disorders collected retrospective data on FTLB patients who sought specialists' attention between the last quarter of 2019 and June 2022. An audit procedure was used for collection of data, which comprised demographics, course of presentation and duration, precipitating and predisposing factors, phenomenology, comorbidities, and pharmacological treatment outcome. RESULTS: During the study period, we collected data on 294 patients with FTLBs, 97% of whom were adolescents and young adults and 87% of whom were female. FTLBs were found to have a peak of severity within 1 month in 70% of patients, with spontaneous remissions in 20%, and a very high frequency of complex movements (85%) and vocalizations (81%). Less than one-fifth of patients had pre-existing primary tic disorder, 66% had comorbid anxiety disorders, 28% comorbid depressive disorders, 24% autism spectrum disorder and 23% attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder. Almost 60% explicitly reported exposure to tic-related social media content. The vast majority of pharmacologically treated patients did not report benefit with tic-suppressing medications. CONCLUSIONS: Our data from the largest multicentre registry of FTLBs to date confirm substantial clinical differences from primary tic disorders. Social modelling was the most relevant contributing factor during the pandemic. Future longitudinal analyses from this database may help understand treatment approaches and responsiveness.

Effect of a Multicomponent Sepsis Transition and Recovery Program on Mortality and Readmissions After Sepsis: The Improving Morbidity During Post-Acute Care Transitions for Sepsis Randomized Clinical Trial.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate whether a nurse navigator-led, multicomponent Sepsis Transition And Recovery program improves 30-day mortality and readmission outcomes after sepsis hospitalization. DESIG: n: Multisite pragmatic randomized clinical trial. SETTING: Three hospitals in North Carolina from January 2019 to March 2020. PATIENTS: Eligible patients hospitalized for suspected sepsis and deemed high-risk for mortality or readmission by validated internal risk models. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomized to receive usual care alone (i.e., routine transition support, outpatient care; n = 342) or additional Sepsis Transition And Recovery support (n = 349). The 30-day intervention involved a multicomponent transition service led by a nurse navigator through telephone and electronic health record communication to facilitate best practice postsepsis care strategies during and after hospitalization including: postdischarge medication review, evaluation for new impairments or symptoms, monitoring comorbidities, and palliative care approach when appropriate. Clinical oversight was provided by a Hospital Medicine Transition Services team. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The primary outcome was a composite of mortality or hospital readmission at 30 days. Logistic regression models were constructed to evaluate marginal and conditional odds ratios (adjusted for prognostic covariates: age, comorbidity, and organ dysfunction at enrollment). Among 691 randomized patients (mean age = 63.7 ± 15.1 yr; 52% female), a lower percentage of patients in the Sepsis Transition And Recovery group experienced the primary outcome compared with the usual care group (28.7% vs 33.3%; risk difference, 4.7%; odds ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.58-1.11; adjusted odds ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.64-0.98). There were 74 deaths (Sepsis Transition And Recovery: 33 [9.5%] vs usual care: 41 [12.0%]) and 155 rehospitalizations (Sepsis Transition And Recovery: 71 [20.3%] vs usual care: 84 [24.6%]). CONCLUSIONS: In a multisite randomized clinical trial of patients hospitalized with sepsis, patients provided with a 30-day program using a nurse navigator to provide best practices for postsepsis care experienced a lower proportion of either mortality or rehospitalization within 30 days after discharge. Further research is needed to understand the contextual factors associated with successful implementation.

Insights From Rapid Deployment of a "Virtual Hospital" as Standard Care During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Pandemics disrupt traditional health care operations by overwhelming system resource capacity but also create opportunities for care innovation. OBJECTIVE: To describe the development and rapid deployment of a virtual hospital program, Atrium Health hospital at home (AH-HaH), within a large health care system. DESIGN: Prospective case series. SETTING: Atrium Health, a large integrated health care organization in the southeastern United States. PATIENTS: 1477 patients diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from 23 March to 7 May 2020 who received care via AH-HaH. INTERVENTION: A virtual hospital model providing proactive home monitoring and hospital-level care through a virtual observation unit (VOU) and a virtual acute care unit (VACU) in the home setting for eligible patients with COVID-19. MEASUREMENTS: Patient demographic characteristics, comorbid conditions, treatments administered (intravenous fluids, antibiotics, supplemental oxygen, and respiratory medications), transfer to inpatient care, and hospital outcomes (length of stay, intensive care unit [ICU] admission, mechanical ventilation, and death) were collected from electronic health record data. RESULTS: 1477 patients received care in either the AH-HaH VOU or VACU or both settings, with a median length of stay of 11 days. Of these, 1293 (88%) patients received care in the VOU only, with 40 (3%) requiring inpatient hospitalization. Of these 40 patients, 16 (40%) spent time in the ICU, 7 (18%) required ventilator support, and 2 (5%) died during their hospital admission. In total, 184 (12%) patients were ever admitted to the VACU, during which 21 patients (11%) required intravenous fluids, 16 (9%) received antibiotics, 40 (22%) required respiratory inhaler or nebulizer treatments, 41 (22%) used supplemental oxygen, and 24 (13%) were admitted as an inpatient to a conventional hospital. Of these 24 patients, 10 (42%) required ICU admission, 1 (3%) required a ventilator, and none died during their hospital admission. LIMITATION: Generalizability is limited to patients with a working telephone and the ability to comply with the monitoring protocols. CONCLUSION: Virtual hospital programs have the potential to provide health systems with additional inpatient capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Atrium Health.

Protocol for a two-arm pragmatic stepped-wedge hybrid effectiveness-implementation trial evaluating Engagement and Collaborative Management to Proactively Advance Sepsis Survivorship (ENCOMPASS).

BACKGROUND: Sepsis survivors experience high morbidity and mortality, and healthcare systems lack effective strategies to address patient needs after hospital discharge. The Sepsis Transition and Recovery (STAR) program is a navigator-led, telehealth-based multicomponent strategy to provide proactive care coordination and monitoring of high-risk patients using evidence-driven, post-sepsis care tasks. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of STAR to improve outcomes for sepsis patients and to examine contextual factors that influence STAR implementation. METHODS: This study uses a hybrid type I effectiveness-implementation design to concurrently test clinical effectiveness and gather implementation data. The effectiveness evaluation is a two-arm, pragmatic, stepped-wedge cluster randomized controlled trial at eight hospitals in North Carolina comparing clinical outcomes between sepsis survivors who receive Usual Care versus care delivered through STAR. Each hospital begins in a Usual Care control phase and transitions to STAR in a randomly assigned sequence (one every 4 months). During months that a hospital is allocated to Usual Care, all eligible patients will receive usual care. Once a hospital transitions to STAR, all eligible patients will receive STAR during their hospitalization and extending through 90 days from discharge. STAR includes centrally located nurse navigators using telephonic counseling and electronic health record-based support to facilitate best-practice post-sepsis care strategies including post-discharge review of medications, evaluation for new impairments or symptoms, monitoring existing comorbidities, and palliative care referral when appropriate. Adults admitted with suspected sepsis, defined by clinical criteria for infection and organ failure, are included. Planned enrollment is 4032 patients during a 36-month period. The primary effectiveness outcome is the composite of all-cause hospital readmission or mortality within 90 days of discharge. A mixed-methods implementation evaluation will be conducted before, during, and after STAR implementation. DISCUSSION: This pragmatic evaluation will test the effectiveness of STAR to reduce combined hospital readmissions and mortality, while identifying key implementation factors. Results will provide practical information to advance understanding of how to integrate post-sepsis management across care settings and facilitate implementation, dissemination, and sustained utilization of best-practice post-sepsis management strategies in other heterogeneous healthcare delivery systems. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04495946 . Submitted July 7, 2020; Posted August 3, 2020.

Predictive Accuracy of Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment for Hospital Mortality Decreases With Increasing Comorbidity Burden Among Patients Admitted for Suspected Infection.

OBJECTIVES: Evaluate the accuracy of the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment tool to predict mortality across increasing levels of comorbidity burden. DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort study. SETTING: Twelve acute care hospitals in the Southeastern United States. PATIENTS: A total of 52,187 patients with suspected infection presenting to the Emergency Department between January 2014 and September 2017. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The primary outcome was hospital mortality. We used electronic health record data to calculate quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment risk scores from vital signs and laboratory values documented during the first 24 hours. We calculated Charlson Comorbidity Index scores to quantify comorbidity burden. We constructed logistic regression models to evaluate differences in the performance of quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment greater than or equal to 2 to predict hospital mortality in patients with no documented (Charlson Comorbidity Index = 0), low (Charlson Comorbidity Index = 1-2), moderate (Charlson Comorbidity Index = 3-4), or high (Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥ 5) comorbidity burden. Among the cohort, 2,030 patients died in the hospital (4%). No comorbidities were documented for 5,038 patients (10%), 9,235 patients (18%) had low comorbidity burden, 12,649 patients (24%) had moderate comorbidity burden, and 25,265 patients (48%) had high comorbidity burden. Overall model discrimination for quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment greater than or equal to 2 was the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.72). A model including both quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and Charlson Comorbidity Index had improved discrimination compared with Charlson Comorbidity Index alone (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.76-0.78 vs area under the curve, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.59-0.62). Discrimination was highest among patients with no documented comorbidities (quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.84; 95% CI; 0.79-0.89) and lowest among high comorbidity patients (quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.65-0.68). The strength of association between quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and mortality ranged from 30.5-fold increased likelihood in patients with no comorbidities to 4.7-fold increased likelihood in patients with high comorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: The accuracy of quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment to predict hospital mortality diminishes with increasing comorbidity burden. Patients with comorbidities may have baseline abnormalities in quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment variables that reduce predictive accuracy. Additional research is needed to better understand quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment performance across different comorbid conditions with modification that incorporates the context of changes to baseline variables.

Aiming to Improve Readmissions Through InteGrated Hospital Transitions (AIRTIGHT): a Pragmatic Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Despite years of intense focus, inpatient and observation readmission rates remain high and largely unchanged. Hospitals have little, robust evidence to guide the selection of interventions effective at reducing 30-day readmissions in real-world settings. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate if implementation of recent recommendations for hospital transition programs is effective at reducing 30-day readmissions in a population discharged to home and at high-risk for readmission. DESIGN: A non-blinded, pragmatic randomized controlled trial ( Clinicaltrials.gov : NCT02763202) conducted at two hospitals in Charlotte, North Carolina. PATIENTS: A total of 1876 adult patients, under the care of a hospitalist, and at high risk for readmissions. INTERVENTION: Random allocation to a Transition Services (TS) program (n = 935) that bridges inpatient, outpatient, and home settings, providing patients virtual and in-person access to a dedicated multidisciplinary team for 30-days, or usual care (n = 941). MAIN MEASURE: Thirty-day, unplanned, inpatient, or observation readmission rate. KEY RESULTS: The 30-day readmission rate was 15.2% in the TS group and 16.3% in the usual care group (RR 0.93; 95% [CI, 0.76 to 1.15]; P = 0.52). There were no significant differences in readmissions at 60 and 90 days or in 30-day Emergency Department visit rates. Patients, who were referred to TS and readmitted, had less Intensive Care Unit admissions 15.5% vs. 26.8% (RR 0.74; 95% [CI, 0.59 to 0.93]; P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: An intervention inclusive of contemporary recommendations does not reduce a high-risk population's 30-day readmission rate. The high crossover to usual care (74.8%) reflects the challenge of non-participation that is ubiquitous in the real-world implementation of population health interventions. TRIAL REGISTRY: ClinicalTrials.gov ; registration ID number: NCT02763202, URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02763202.

Asthma dissemination around patient-centered treatments in North Carolina (ADAPT-NC): a cluster randomized control trial evaluating dissemination of an evidence-based shared decision-making intervention for asthma management.

Objective: To compare three dissemination approaches for implementing an asthma shared decision-making (SDM) intervention into primary care practices. Methods: We randomized thirty practices into three study arms: (1) a facilitator-led approach to implementing SDM; (2) a one-hour lunch-and-learn training on SDM; and (3) a control group with no active intervention. Patient perceptions of SDM were assessed in the active intervention arms using a one-question anonymous survey. Logistic regression models compared the frequency of asthma exacerbations (emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and oral steroid prescriptions) between the three arms. Results: We collected 705 surveys from facilitator-led sites and 523 from lunch-and-learn sites. Patients were more likely to report that they participated equally with the provider in making the treatment decision in the facilitator-led sites (75% vs. 66%, p = 0.001). Comparisons of outcomes for patients in the facilitator-led (n = 1,658) and lunch-and-learn (n = 2,613) arms respectively vs. control (n = 2,273) showed no significant differences for ED visits (Odds Ratio [OR] [95%CI] = 0.77[0.57-1.04]; 0.83[0.66-1.07]), hospitalizations (OR [95%CI] = 1.30[0.59-2.89]; 1.40 [0.68-3.06]), or oral steroids (OR [95%CI] =0.95[0.79-1.15]; 1.03[0.81-1.06]). Conclusion: Facilitator-led dissemination was associated with a significantly higher proportion of patients sharing equally in decision-making with the provider compared to a traditional lunch-and-learn approach. While there was no significant difference in health outcomes between the three arms, the results were most likely confounded by a concurrent statewide asthma initiative and the pragmatic implementation of the intervention. These results offer support for the use of structured approaches such as facilitator-led dissemination of complex interventions into primary care practices.

Metacognition in functional cognitive disorder- a potential mechanism and treatment target.

Introduction: Functional Cognitive Disorder (FCD) is common. Despite this, there is no evidence-based consensus on how to treat FCD. Poor metacognitive ability has been suggested as a key mechanism underlying the disorder. This paper evaluates the proposal that strategies which improve metacognition could provide a mechanistically plausible translational therapy. Methods: We reviewed the existing literature relating to metacognition in FCD, previous strategies to improve metacognitive ability in FCD and whether metacognitive performance can be modulated. Results: Though limited, there is evidence to suggest that metacognition is impaired in FCD. Converging evidence from neuroimaging studies suggests that metacognitive performance can be modulated. The effectiveness of existing strategies to improve metacognition including cognitive training, psychoeducation and lifestyle interventions have been equivocal. Recently, a potential treatment option has emerged in the form of a computer-based metacognitive training paradigm. Conclusions: There is an urgent need for effective treatments in FCD. Impaired metacognition may be a plausible therapeutic target but, in the first instance, further research is required to demonstrate deficits in "local" metacognitive ability in FCD patients when measured objectively. If so, clinical trials of interventions, such as computerised metacognitive training, are required to evaluate their effectiveness in improving FCD symptoms.

Nonepileptic seizures in the pediatric population: A qualitative study of patient and family experiences.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to characterize the experience of nonepileptic seizures (NES) in young people (0-19years) and their families, referred to a UK specialist (tertiary) pediatric hospital. The topics investigated include: accessing healthcare, how the diagnosis was first explained, impact on home life and school, coping strategies, and ideas about naming and causes. METHODS: Ten young people with NES and 29 family members took part in focus groups and telephone interviews. The data generated were analyzed qualitatively with thematic analysis. RESULTS: Six themes were identified from participant experiences: upset and afraid, missing out, feeling misunderstood, confusion and uncertainty, less than epilepsy, and making sense and moving on. Participants described severe disruption to multiple domains of functioning at home, educationally, and in social activities. Young people felt guilty but also overprotected, while family members felt that they were failing as parents. The journey to diagnosis and treatment was seen as unnecessarily tortuous, with access to care and treatment pathways poorly defined. Participants described feeling that a wide variety of professionals did not believe their experiences, showed pejorative attitudes, and left them feeling isolated and marginalized. The young people and family members found NES a difficult disorder to understand and sometimes could not differentiate it from epilepsy. Epilepsy was used as a benchmark for several comparisons, including highlighting the lack of support for and information about NES. Families disliked being told that it was "good news" that their child did not have epilepsy and questioned if their child should be present during initial diagnostic discussions. Participants described stressful situations as a common trigger for NES. Young people showed ambivalence towards the need to understand the condition or the choice of name used for it, whereas family members considered this crucial for achieving recovery. CONCLUSIONS: Young people and families who live with NES experience considerable distress and impairment. Pathways to diagnosis need to be streamlined, and better integration of pediatric, mental health, and educational services is required. The use of the "good news" story to discuss the diagnosis with families should be reconsidered, as families seem to interpret this as indicating that there is no effective treatment. Educational resources and support groups for young people and families are needed. Greater understanding of experiences may allow investigation of the pathogenic mechanism and inform possible management approaches. Training of health professionals in communicating with young people and families with NES must be improved.

Patient engagement and informed decision making regarding medical imaging.

Misuse and overuse of medical imaging have gained widespread attention due to rising costs, radiation exposure risks, and limited comparative effectiveness evidence. Involving patients in shared decision making offers an opportunity to more clearly define risks and benefits, thus allowing patients to consider both personal values and the best available evidence.

Mental capacity assessment in the multi-professional real world: a qualitative study of six areas of uncertainty.

Background: The Mental Capacity Act 2005 of England and Wales is a ground-breaking piece of legislation with reach into healthcare, social care and legal settings. Professionals have needed to develop skills to assess mental capacity and handle malign influence, but it is unclear how assessments are implemented in real world settings. Our previously reported survey found professionals juggling competing resources in complex systems, often struggling to stay up to date with law.The current follow-up study uses one-to-one interviews of professionals to characterise in detail six areas of uncertainty faced when assessing mental capacity, whilst suggesting ways to make improvements. Methods: Forty-four healthcare, social care and legal professionals were interviewed, using a semi-structured topic guide. Transcripts were analysed using framework analysis: a qualitative technique built to investigate healthcare policy. Results: Our topic guide generated 21 themes. In relation to the six areas of uncertainty: 1) Many participants stressed the importance of capturing a holistic view, adding that their own profession was best-placed for this - although a medical diagnosis was often needed. 2) The presumption of capacity was a laudable aim, though not always easy to operationalise and occasionally being open to abuse. 3) There was cautious interest in psychometric testing, providing a cognitive context for decisions. 4) Undue influence was infrequent, but remained under-emphasised in training. 5) Multi-professional assessments were common, despite doubts about fitting these within local resources and the law. 6) Remote assessment was generally acceptable, if inadequate for identifying coercion. Conclusions: Practical constraints and competing demands were reported by professionals working within real world systems. Assessment processes must be versatile, equally applicable in routine and emergency settings, across diverse decisional types, for both generalist and specialist assessors, and able to handle coercion. Recognising these challenges will guide development of best practices in assessment and associated policy.

The Mental Capacity Act 2005 of England and Wales is an important piece of law for professionals working in health and social care or as lawyers. It explains how to assess whether a person is able to take a particular decision for themselves ­ and therefore has "mental capacity" in the eyes of society. Professionals have needed to develop skills to assess mental capacity, and to recognise situations where family or friends are trying to influence decisions for their own interests. We previously reported a large scale survey of professionals who assess mental capacity. The current study uses one-to-one interviews, exploring in detail six areas of uncertainty around capacity assessment which were described in that survey. We interviewed 44 health and social care professionals and lawyers, then analysed their responses. We found 21 themes relating to the six areas of uncertainty: 1) The importance of capturing a holistic view of the person's life; 2) Challenges for assessors when trying to presume initially that a person does have mental capacity, as the law asks assessors to do; 3) Detailed testing by psychologists could be useful; 4) Other people were rarely thought to try to influence decisions, but awareness of this possibility should be emphasised in training; 5) Multi-professional assessments were common, despite doubts about whether these were possible in all settings or fit with the law; 6) Remote assessment was generally acceptable, but was poor at identifying if people were being influenced. Practical constraints and competing demands were reported by professionals working within real world systems. Our analysis suggests that mental capacity assessment processes need to be versatile, so they can work well in routine and emergency settings and for a range of types of decisions. Recognising these challenges will guide development of best practices in assessment and associated policy.

Predictive Models for Sustained, Uncontrolled Hypertension and Hypertensive Crisis Based on Electronic Health Record Data: Algorithm Development and Validation.

Background: Assessing disease progression among patients with uncontrolled hypertension is important for identifying opportunities for intervention. Objective: We aim to develop and validate 2 models, one to predict sustained, uncontrolled hypertension (≥2 blood pressure [BP] readings ≥140/90 mm Hg or ≥1 BP reading ≥180/120 mm Hg) and one to predict hypertensive crisis (≥1 BP reading ≥180/120 mm Hg) within 1 year of an index visit (outpatient or ambulatory encounter in which an uncontrolled BP reading was recorded). Methods: Data from 142,897 patients with uncontrolled hypertension within Atrium Health Greater Charlotte in 2018 were used. Electronic health record-based predictors were based on the 1-year period before a patient's index visit. The dataset was randomly split (80:20) into a training set and a validation set. In total, 4 machine learning frameworks were considered: L2-regularized logistic regression, multilayer perceptron, gradient boosting machines, and random forest. Model selection was performed with 10-fold cross-validation. The final models were assessed on discrimination (C-statistic), calibration (eg, integrated calibration index), and net benefit (with decision curve analysis). Additionally, internal-external cross-validation was performed at the county level to assess performance with new populations and summarized using random-effect meta-analyses. Results: In internal validation, the C-statistic and integrated calibration index were 0.72 (95% CI 0.71-0.72) and 0.015 (95% CI 0.012-0.020) for the sustained, uncontrolled hypertension model, and 0.81 (95% CI 0.79-0.82) and 0.009 (95% CI 0.007-0.011) for the hypertensive crisis model. The models had higher net benefit than the default policies (ie, treat-all and treat-none) across different decision thresholds. In internal-external cross-validation, the pooled performance was consistent with internal validation results; in particular, the pooled C-statistics were 0.70 (95% CI 0.69-0.71) and 0.79 (95% CI 0.78-0.81) for the sustained, uncontrolled hypertension model and hypertensive crisis model, respectively. Conclusions: An electronic health record-based model predicted hypertensive crisis reasonably well in internal and internal-external validations. The model can potentially be used to support population health surveillance and hypertension management. Further studies are needed to improve the ability to predict sustained, uncontrolled hypertension.

Incorporating patient, caregiver, and provider perspectives in the co-design of an app to guide Hospital at Home admission decisions: a qualitative analysis.

Objective: Hospital at Home (HaH) programs currently lack decision support tools to help efficiently navigate the complex decision-making process surrounding HaH as a care option. We assessed user needs and perspectives to guide early prototyping and co-creation of 4PACS (Partnering Patients and Providers for Personalized Acute Care Selection), a decision support app to help patients make an informed decision when presented with discrete hospitalization options. Methods: From December 2021 to January 2022, we conducted semi-structured interviews via telephone with patients and caregivers recruited from Atrium Health's HaH program and physicians and a nurse with experience referring patients to HaH. Interviews were evaluated using thematic analysis. The findings were synthesized to create illustrative user descriptions to aid 4PACS development. Results: In total, 12 stakeholders participated (3 patients, 2 caregivers, 7 providers [physicians/nurse]). We identified 4 primary themes: attitudes about HaH; 4PACS app content and information needs; barriers to 4PACS implementation; and facilitators to 4PACS implementation. We characterized 3 user descriptions (one per stakeholder group) to support 4PACS design decisions. User needs included patient selection criteria, clear program details, and descriptions of HaH components to inform care expectations. Implementation barriers included conflict between app recommendations and clinical judgement, inability to adequately represent patient-risk profile, and provider burden. Implementation facilitators included ease of use, auto-populating features, and appropriate health literacy. Conclusions: The findings indicate important information gaps and user needs to help inform 4PACS design and barriers and facilitators to implementing 4PACS in the decision-making process of choosing between hospital-level care options.

Patient and care team perspectives on an app to support Hospital at Home admission decision making.

BACKGROUND: Hospital at Home (HaH) programs are used throughout the United States and are beneficial in both providing patients care in environments most comfortable to them and freeing up inpatient beds. Better informing patients about HaH programs, while promoting shared decision-making (SDM), should be prioritized by health systems. SDM apps may promote increased patient agency and understanding of complex HaH care decisions. We previously developed, usability tested, and refined a HaH SDM app. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the utility of SDM apps in assisting pneumonia patients with HaH admission. METHODS: Usability surveys (N = 16) and semistructured interviews with patients (N = 9) and nurse navigators (N = 3) were utilized to evaluate our app in assisting pneumonia patients as they contemplated HaH admission. Recruitment occurred at three hospitals in the southeastern United States. Surveys were analyzed consistent with their validated measures, while interviews were analyzed using inductive coding methodologies. RESULTS: Patients supported receiving HaH information via an app, with many noting that presenting content via multiple modalities (e.g., videos, pictures, text) was helpful and that the app assisted their care decision. App-guided inquiries into patients' care preferences helped patients visualize their priorities and promoted feelings of agency, while providing important information to care teams. Participants found visuals effective at conveying program details, for example, HaH's in-home setup, which may assist with health literacy challenges. Potential barriers included the need to expand app accessibility for vision impaired and non-English speaking patients. CONCLUSIONS: SDM apps may better inform patients' HaH care decisions, allowing patients self-directed access to information and engagement with visual content, which may address challenges related to health literacy and navigating complex, time-sensitive decisions.

A regionally tailored epidemiological forecast and monitoring program to guide a healthcare system in the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, analytics and predictive models built on regional data provided timely, accurate monitoring of epidemiological behavior, informing critical planning and decision-making for health system leaders. At Atrium Health, a large, integrated healthcare system in the southeastern United States, a team of statisticians and physicians created a comprehensive forecast and monitoring program that leveraged an array of statistical methods. METHODS: The program utilized the following methodological approaches: (i) exploratory graphics, including time plots of epidemiological metrics with smoothers; (ii) infection prevalence forecasting using a Bayesian epidemiological model with time-varying infection rate; (iii) doubling and halving times computed using changepoints in local linear trend; (iv) death monitoring using combination forecasting with an ensemble of models; (v) effective reproduction number estimation with a Bayesian approach; (vi) COVID-19 patients hospital census monitored via time series models; and (vii) quantified forecast performance. RESULTS: A consolidated forecast and monitoring report was produced weekly and proved to be an effective, vital source of information and guidance as the healthcare system navigated the inherent uncertainty of the pandemic. Forecasts provided accurate and precise information that informed critical decisions on resource planning, bed capacity and staffing management, and infection prevention strategies. CONCLUSIONS: In this paper, we have presented the framework used in our epidemiological forecast and monitoring program at Atrium Health, as well as provided recommendations for implementation by other healthcare systems and institutions to facilitate use in future pandemics.

Age-related decreases in global metacognition are independent of local metacognition and task performance.

Metacognition refers to a capacity to reflect on and control other cognitive processes, commonly quantified as the extent to which confidence tracks objective performance. There is conflicting evidence about how "local" metacognition (monitoring of individual judgments) and "global" metacognition (estimates of self-performance) change across the lifespan. Additionally, the degree to which metacognition generalises across cognitive domains may itself change with age due to increased experience with one's own abilities. Using a gamified suite of performance-controlled memory and visual perception tasks, we measured local and global metacognition in an age-stratified sample of 304 healthy volunteers (18-83 years; N = 50 in each of 6 age groups). We calculated both local and global metrics of metacognition and quantified how and whether domain-generality changes with age. First-order task performance was stable across the age range. People's global self-performance estimates and local metacognitive bias decreased with age, indicating overall lower confidence in performance. In contrast, local metacognitive efficiency was spared in older age and remained correlated across the two cognitive domains. A stability of local metacognition indicates distinct mechanisms contributing to local and global metacognition. Our study reveals how local and global metacognition change across the lifespan and provide a benchmark against which disease-related changes in metacognition can be compared.

Blood Pressure Control in a Diverse Population of Hypertensive Patients With Heart Failure.

Hypertensive patients with heart failure (HF), with reduced or preserved ejection fraction, belong to a vulnerable subset with high mortality risks. In HF patients, the current clinical guideline recommends attaining a systolic blood pressure (BP) <130 mm Hg. However, levels of BP control and their correlates in this subgroup are not well understood. Our study aimed at establishing levels of BP control and its associated factors in a geographically, racially diverse population of hypertensive patients with HF. Our study involved 10,802 patients within a large health system in the Charlotte metropolitan area in 2019. We documented a high prevalence of systolic BP ≥130 mm Hg, 48.1% (95% confidence interval 47.4% to 48.8%), and of BP ≥130/80 mm Hg, 57.6% (57.0% to 58.3%). From a multivariate logistic regression model, systolic BP ≥130 mm Hg was associated with race-ethnicity (p <0.0001), gender (p = 0.0001), insurance (p <0.0001), attribution with a primary care physician (p = 0.0001). Non-Hispanic Blacks (vs non-Hispanic Whites odds ratio [OR] 1.38, 1.28 to 1.48), women (OR 1.12, 1.06 to 1.19), and uninsured patients (vs privately insured OR 1.43, 1.20 to 1.72) had a higher risk of systolic BP ≥130 mm Hg; patients with primary care physician attribution had a lower risk of systolic BP ≥130 mm Hg (OR 0.87, 0.81 to 0.94). Similar results were found with the outcome BP ≥130/80 mm Hg. Overall, further efforts are needed to optimize treatment in hypertensive patients with HF and improve health equity across patient communities.