The natural history of periodontal disease-Part 2: In populations with access to dental care: The Studies of Health in Pomerania (SHIP).

In this descriptive analysis of the 21-year follow-up data from the SHIP-START cohort and the 7-year follow-up data from the SHIP-TREND cohort, we report the progression of clinical attachment levels (CAL), age effects on CAL change, and a detailed description of CAL progression and remission. At baseline, 4307 and 4420 persons participated in SHIP-START and SHIP-TREND, respectively. At the final follow-up, 1181 and 2507 subjects were available for evaluation, respectively. In SHIP-START and SHIP-TREND participants, the mean CAL progressed by 0.04 and 0.02 mm/year, respectively. The older the participants were, the lower the average annual change in mean CAL (from 0.043 to 0.031 mm/year); annual tooth loss was 0.11-0.14 teeth/year. When participants were ranked according to their annual change in mean CAL, remission was more frequently observed in older subjects. To correctly understand the data, it is important to realize that selection bias due to dropouts during follow-up favored younger and more health-conscious persons. In addition, extraction of severely periodontally compromised teeth during follow-up biased the progression towards zero. Another explanation for these low CAL progression rates is that most sites had little or no change in CAL; this means that CAL progression was partly offset by CAL remission. Therefore, changes in mean CAL do not adequately describe the temporal course of periodontitis. Older age was not a risk factor for CAL progression in either cohort.

Masticaticatory muscles characteristics in relation to adiposity and general muscular fitness: a population-based study.

There is still considerable controversy surrounding the impact of mastication on obesity. The aim of this study was to identify the interplay between the masticatory muscles, teeth, and general muscular fitness and how they contribute to body adiposity in a general German population. This cross-sectional study included 616 participants (300 male, 316 female, age 31-93 years) from the population-based Study of Health in Pomerania. The cross-sectional areas of the masseter, medial and lateral pterygoid muscles were measured using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), muscular fitness assessed by hand grip strength (HGS) and body fat distribution was measured by bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) and MRI. The overall prevalence of obesity was high in our cohort. The cross-sectional area of the masseter muscles was positively associated with the number of teeth, body mass index (BMI) and HGS, and negatively associated with the BIA-assessed body fat when adjusted for age, sex, teeth, and BMI. Especially the correlation was strong (p < 0.001). Analogous relationships were observed between the masseter, HGS and MRI-assessed subcutaneous fat. These associations were most pronounced with masseter, but also significant with both pterygoid muscles. Though the masticatory muscles were affected by the number of teeth, teeth had no impact on the relations between masseter muscle and adiposity. Physical fitness and masticatory performance are associated with body shape, controlled and directed by the relevant muscles.

Tooth loss and adiposity: possible role of carnitine transporter (OCTN1/2) polymorphisms in women but not in men.

OBJECTIVE: SLC22A4/5 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been reported to affect inflammatory diseases. We report the relationship of these polymorphisms with adiposity and tooth loss as elucidated in a 10-year follow-up study. METHODS: Participants of the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP, N = 4105) were genotyped for the polymorphisms c.1507C > T in SLC22A4 (rs1050152) and -207C > G in SLC22A5 (rs2631367) using allele-specific real-time PCR assays. A total of 1817 subjects, 934 female and 883 male aged 30-80 years, underwent follow-up 10 years later (SHIP-2) and were assessed for adiposity and tooth loss. RESULTS: The frequencies of the rarer SLC22A4 TT and SLC22A5 CC alleles were 16.7% and 20.3%, respectively. In women, tooth loss was associated with genotype TT vs. CC with incidence rate ratio IRR = 0.74 (95%C.I. 0.60-0.92) and CC vs. GG IRR = 0.79 (0.65-0.96) for SLC22A4 and SLC22A5 SNPs, respectively. In men, no such associations were observed. In the follow-up examination, the relationship between tooth loss and these SNPs was in parallel with measures of body shape such as BMI, body weight, waist circumference, or body fat accumulation. The association between muscle strength and body fat mass was modified by the genotypes studied. CONCLUSIONS: SLC22A4 c.150C > T and SLC22A5 -207C > G polymorphisms are associated with tooth loss and markers of body shape in women but not in men. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Tooth loss may be related to obesity beyond inflammatory mechanisms, conceivably with a genetic background.

Competing interplay between systemic and periodontal inflammation: obesity overrides the impact of oral periphery.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed at investigating whether the interaction between the local inflammation, periodontitis, and obesity is independently associated with systemic inflammation. METHODS: From the population-based Study of Health in Pomerania, 3366 participants, without (2366) and with (1000) obesity, were studied for the association of periodontitis, measured as probing depth (PD) and plaque together with body mass index (BMI) on C-reactive protein (CRP). Quantile regression was used to evaluate the association between periodontal, anthropometric, and inflammatory variables (outcomes). RESULTS: The overall prevalence of obesity in this adult population was 31.4% in men and 28.1% in women. Both PD and plaque were positively associated with CRP, revealing an increasing impact across the CRP concentration distribution. Adjusting the regression of CRP or fibrinogen on PD for waist circumference attenuated but did not abolish the PD coefficients. Dental plaque was similarly associated with these interrelations. Association between PD and a dental plaque was different among participants with low-, medium-, or high-risk CRP concentrations. CONCLUSION: Local and systemic sources of inflammation contribute to blood levels of inflammatory markers. The respective contributions depend on the relative rate in each of the inflammation-inducing risks and are dominated by adiposity. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Keeping systemic inflammation low in order to prevent age-related disease sequelae.

Correction to: Tooth loss and adiposity: possible role of carnitine transporter (OCTN1/2) polymorphisms in women but not in men.

The online version of the original article can be found at https://doi.org/10.1007/s00784-020-03594-w.

Sports Performance and Injury Research: Methodologic Limitations and Recommendations for Future Improvements.

Evidence-based research has resulted in incredible advances in sports medicine and is an important component of minimizing injury risk. Such research is similarly important when applied to care delivery to athletes after injury. For research into injury reduction and treatment outcomes to be most impactful, however, the methods must be of sufficient rigor to generate high-quality evidence. Two recent trends in sports injury research have led to specific concerns about evidence quality: 1) use of athletic performance metrics as an injury or treatment outcome and 2) use of publicly available data for injury or treatment research.

Periodontal complications of hyperglycemia/diabetes mellitus: Epidemiologic complexity and clinical challenge.

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the adverse effects of hyperglycemia on the periodontium. It combines data from literature reviews of original data from two large, population-based epidemiologic studies with comprehensive periodontal health assessment. Emphasis is placed on the exploration of hitherto sparsely reported effects of prediabetes and poorly controlled (uncontrolled) diabetes, in contrast to the umbrella term "diabetes." This stems from the realization that it is not simply having a diagnosis of diabetes that may adversely affect periodontal health. Rather, it is the level (severity) of hyperglycemia that is the determining factor, not the case definition of the diagnosis of diabetes or the type of diabetes in question. Importantly, based on existing evidence this paper also attempts to estimate the improvements in periodontal probing depth and clinical attachment level that can be expected upon successful nonsurgical periodontal treatment in people with chronic periodontitis, with and without diabetes, respectively. This exploration includes the implentation of new systematic reviews and meta-analyses that allow comparison of such intervention outcomes between hyperglycemic and normoglycemic subjects. Based on both existing literature and original analyses of population-based studies, we try to answer questions such as: Is there a glycated hemoglobin concentration threshold for periodontitis risk? Does short-term periodontal probing depth reduction and clinical attachment level gain after scaling and root planing depend on glycemic control in type 2 diabetes? Are short-term scaling and root planing outcomes in people with hyperglycemia/diabetes inferior to those in people without diabetes? Do periodontitis patients with diabetes benefit more from the use of adjuvant antibiotics with nonsurgical periodontal treatment than people without diabetes? Does hyperglycemia lead to greater tooth loss in patients in long-term post-periodontal treatment maintenance programs? Throughout this review, we compare our new findings with previous data and report whether the results of these new analyses corroborate, or are in discord with, similar scientific reports in the literature. We also explore the potential role of dental health-care professionals in helping patients control the risk factors that are identical for periodontitis and diabetes. Finally, we suggest various topics that still need exploration in future research.

Self-reported oral health predicts tooth loss after five and ten years in a population-based study.

AIM: To assess the suitability of self-reported oral health status to predict 5- and 10-year tooth loss without involvement of any clinical measures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Within the population Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP), 2,776 subjects with 5-year follow-up data and 2,016 subjects with 10-year follow-up examination data were studied. Self-rated oral health was assessed at baseline and related to 5- and 10-year tooth loss. Odds ratios and probability of loss were estimated. RESULTS: Five- and 10-year tooth loss was significantly associated with baseline self-rated oral health. The predictive value of oral health ratings for tooth loss was comparable to that of the CDC/AAP case definition or caries and periodontitis diagnostics. In regression analyses including age, sex, smoking, education, income, and further items collected from questionnaires, odds ratios for dichotomous tooth loss associated with rating of oral health as poor were 3.04 (95% CI: 2.43-3.82) and 2.80 (2.11-3.71) after 5 and 10 years, respectively. Prediction with cut-off probability at 0.25 resulted in sensitivity 85.8% and specificity 44.2% for 5 years, and that with cut-off probability at 0.40 resulted in sensitivity 83.5% and specificity 46.5% for 10 years. CONCLUSION: Self-reported oral health provides reliable predictions of tooth loss comparable to those assessed by clinical diagnostics.

Effect of body shape and inflammation on tooth loss in men and women.

OBJECTIVES: Android and gynoid adiposity is differently involved on inflammatory responses in men or women in periodontitis and tooth loss. We tested the hypothesis whether identical waist-to-hip ratios (WHR) in men and women could abolish this disparity. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data of 2746 participants from the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) were analysed. Men and women were 1:1 matched, N = 344:344, in three age strata for waist-to-hip ratio. We determined anthropometric measures, attachment loss, tooth loss and markers of systemic inflammation. RESULTS: Women matched with men by WHR had increased periodontal measures as compared to women of the general population. Nevertheless, in the matched pairs incidence risk (IRR) ratios for any tooth loss associated with elevated C-reactive protein were IRR = 2.15 (CI 1.33-3.40) and 1.04 (0.66-1.66) in men and women, respectively. Regression with tooth loss due to any cause as dependent variable showed dose dependency on C-reactive protein levels in men but not in women. The adjusted IRR associated with high C-reactive protein in men was 1.37 (CI 1.05-1.78) and 2.63 (1.58-4.38) in general and in matched subjects, respectively. CONCLUSION: Systemic inflammation was associated with tooth loss in men but not in women even in women with wide girth. Despite worsened periodontal measures and inflammation in women matched for body shape with men, these women do not lose more teeth even when they are exposed to increased markers of systemic inflammation. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: This is an attempt to disentangle the unclear relationship between obesity and periodontitis, both of them having public health relevance.

Cross-sectional association between physical strength, obesity, periodontitis and number of teeth in a general population.

AIM: Muscle strength declines and gums recede with increasing age across the life course. Possible associations exist between handgrip strength as an indicator of physical fitness and periodontitis and number of teeth. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Handgrip strength (GS), anthropometric measures, clinical attachment loss, number of teeth, C-reactive protein and glycated haemoglobin were assessed in 2089 participants of the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-2). Linear regression including interaction with age was used to estimate the association between clinical attachment level, number of teeth and GS. RESULTS: In multiple regression adjusted for age, body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) each mm of diminished periodontal attachment was associated with reduction in GS by 1.47 kg (95% CI -2.29 to -0.65) and 0.38 kg (-0.89 to 0.14) in men and women respectively. Correspondingly, each additional remaining tooth was significantly associated with higher GS. Using handgrip strength relative to BMI as outcome, these relationships become even more apparent. Indicators of obesity such as BMI and WHR associated with both GS and periodontitis modulate the relationship between GS and periodontitis with a different impact between the sexes. CONCLUSION: Periodontitis is associated with GS modified mainly by anthropometric measures related to adiposity and inflammation. Putative mechanisms encompass interactions of factors declining with increasing age.

Longitudinal effects of systemic inflammation markers on periodontitis.

AIM: Systemic low-grade inflammation represents a central hallmark of chronic diseases and has been proposed as the underlying mechanism linking factors like obesity or diabetes with periodontitis. However, the impact of inflammatory markers on periodontitis has not yet been investigated. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study population comprised 1784 subjects from the Study of Health in Pomerania with complete 11-year follow-up. Fibrinogen and white blood cell (WBC) counts were measured as markers of inflammation. Periodontitis was assessed by probing depth (PD), clinical attachment loss (CAL) and the CDC/AAP case definition. RESULTS: Multilevel regression analyses revealed significant coefficients for the impact of both inflammation markers on the percentage of sites with PD/CAL ≥ 3 mm. Increases in fibrinogen about 1 g/l were associated with 3.0% and 2.7% more sites with PD/CAL ≥ 3 mm respectively. Consistent associations were found using mean values of PD/CAL but not using missing teeth or caries. Regarding the CDC/AAP case definition, 11-year changes in fibrinogen and WBC counts were significantly associated with ≥1 category progression (OR: 1.36 and 1.11). CONCLUSIONS: Fibrinogen levels and WBC counts showed consistent long-term associations with PD, CAL and the CDC/AAP case definition. Results indicate that systemic low-grade inflammation might indeed represent one possible pathway for effects of obesity, diabetes or other chronic inflammatory conditions on periodontitis.

Prediction of periodontal disease: modelling and validation in different general German populations.

AIM: To develop models for periodontitis using self-reported questions and to validate them externally. METHODS: The Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-0) was used for model development. Periodontitis was defined according to the definitions of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention-American Academy of Periodontology, the 5th European Workshop in Periodontology, and Dietrich et al. (≥2 teeth with inter-proximal clinical attachment loss of ≥4 mm and 6 mm as moderate and severe periodontitis) respectively. These models were validated in SHIP-Trend and the Fourth German Oral Health Study (DMS IV). RESULTS: Final models included age, gender, education, smoking, bleeding on brushing and self-reported presence of mobile teeth. Concordance-statistics (C-statistics) of the final models from SHIP-0 were 0.84, 0.82 and 0.85 for the three definitions respectively. Validation in SHIP-Trend revealed C-statistics of 0.82, 0.81 and 0.82 respectively. As bleeding on brushing and presence of mobile teeth were unavailable in DMS IV, reduced models were developed. C-statistics of reduced models were 0.82, 0.81 and 0.83 respectively. Validation in DMS IV revealed C-statistics of 0.72, 0.78 and 0.72 for the three definitions respectively. All p values of the goodness-of-fit tests were >0.05. CONCLUSIONS: The models yielded a moderate usefulness for prediction of periodontitis.

Epidemiology of Injuries Among National Basketball Association Players: 2013-2014 Through 2018-2019.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the epidemiology of injuries to athletes is essential to informing injury prevention efforts. HYPOTHESIS: The incidence and impact of basketball-related injuries among National Basketball Association (NBA) players from 2013-2014 through 2018-2019 is relatively stable over time. STUDY DESIGN: Descriptive epidemiology study. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level 3. METHODS: Injuries from 2013-2014 through 2018-2019 were analyzed using the NBA Injury and Illness Database from an electronic medical record system. Descriptive statistics were calculated for injuries by season, game-loss, and onset. Incidence rates were estimated using Poisson models and linear trend tests. RESULTS: Between 552 and 606 players participated in ≥1 game per season during the study. Annual injury incidence ranged from 1550 to 1892, with 33.6% to 38.5% resulting in a missed NBA game. Game-loss injury rates ranged from 5.6 to 7.0 injuries per 10,000 player-minutes from 2014-2015 through 2018-2019 (P = 0.19); the rate was lower in 2013-2014 (5.0 injuries per 10,000 player-minutes), partly due to increased preseason injury rates and transition of reporting processes. The 6-year game-loss injury rate in preseason and regular season games was 6.9 (95% CI 6.0, 8.0) and 6.2 (95% CI 6.0, 6.5) injuries per 10,000 player-minutes; the rate in playoff games was lower (P < 0.01) at 2.8 (95% CI 2.2, 3.6). Most (73%) game-loss injuries had acute onset; 44.4% to 52.5% of these involved contact with another player. CONCLUSION: From 2013-2014 through 2018-2019, over one-third of injuries resulted in missed NBA games, with highest rates of game-loss injuries in preseason games and lowest rates in playoff games. Most game-loss injuries had acute onset, and half of those involved contact with another player. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: These findings - through reliable data reporting by team medical staff in an audited system - can guide evidence-based injury reduction strategies and inform player health priorities.

Periodontitis is related to lung volumes and airflow limitation: a cross-sectional study.

This study aimed to assess the potential association of periodontal diseases with lung volumes and airflow limitation in a general adult population. Based on a representative population sample of the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP), 1463 subjects aged 25-86 years were included. Periodontal status was assessed by clinical attachment loss (CAL), probing depth and number of missing teeth. Lung function was measured using spirometry, body plethysmography and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide. Linear regression models using fractional polynomials were used to assess associations between periodontal disease and lung function. Fibrinogen and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) were evaluated as potential intermediate factors. After full adjustment for potential confounders mean CAL was significantly associated with variables of mobile dynamic and static lung volumes, airflow limitation and hyperinflation (p<0.05). Including fibrinogen and hs-CRP did not change coefficients of mean CAL; associations remained statistically significant. Mean CAL was not associated with total lung capacity and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide. Associations were confirmed for mean probing depth, extent measures of CAL/probing depth and number of missing teeth. Periodontal disease was significantly associated with reduced lung volumes and airflow limitation in this general adult population sample. Systemic inflammation did not provide a mechanism linking both diseases.

Tooth loss and periodontitis by socio-economic status and inflammation in a longitudinal population-based study.

AIM: To examine the associations between factors of socio-economic status (SES), systemic inflammation and the progression of periodontitis and incidence of tooth loss. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data of 2566 participants from the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) with a 5-year follow-up were analysed. We evaluated attachment loss and tooth loss with regard to social variables including education, income, marital status and related risks such as smoking and obesity. RESULTS: Socio-economic factors were associated with the progression of attachment level and tooth loss during the follow-up period. Low education and low income were associated with tooth loss (incidence risk ratio IRR 1.63, p < 0.001 and 1.25, p < 0.001 respectively) and also progression of mean clinical attachment level (p < 0.010 and p = 0.046 respectively). SES as well as smoking and obesity were also associated with increased levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) with effect modifications between SES factors and CRP, also between gender and marital status. Tooth loss was associated with disadvantageous SES, particularly under conditions of high CRP levels (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The progression of periodontal disease is influenced by socio-economic factors. Effect modifications of socio-behavioural factors by CRP indicate that under conditions of systemic inflammation adverse SES effects may be aggravated.

Genome-wide association study of chronic periodontitis in a general German population.

AIM: To identify loci associated with chronic periodontitis through a genome-wide association study (GWAS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A GWAS was performed in 4032 individuals of two independent cross-sectional studies of West Pomerania (SHIP n = 3365 and SHIP-TREND n = 667) with different periodontal case definitions. Samples were genotyped with the Affymetrix Genome-Wide Human SNP Array 6.0 or the Illumina Human Omni 2.5 array. Imputation of the HapMap as well as the 1000 Genome-based autosomal and X-chromosomal genotypes and short insertions and deletions (INDELs) was performed in both cohorts. Finally, more than 17 million SNPs and short INDELs were analysed. RESULTS: No genome-wide significant associations were found for any periodontitis case definition, regardless of whether individuals aged >60 years where excluded or not. Despite no single SNP association reached genome-wide significance, the proportion of variance explained by additive effects of all common SNPs was around 23% for mean proximal attachment loss. Excluding subjects aged >60 years increased the explained variance to 34%. CONCLUSIONS: No single SNPs were found to be genome-wide significantly associated with chronic periodontitis in this study.

The "Bubble": What Can Be Learned from the National Basketball Association (NBA)'s 2019-20 Season Restart in Orlando during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The National Basketball Association (NBA) suspended operations in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. To safely complete the 2019-20 season, the NBA created a closed campus in Orlando, Florida, known as the NBA "Bubble." More than 5000 individuals lived, worked, and played basketball at a time of high local prevalence of SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: Stringent protocols governed campus life to protect NBA and support personnel from contracting COVID-19. Participants quarantined before departure and upon arrival. Medical and social protocols required that participants remain on campus, test regularly, physically distance, mask, use hand hygiene, and more. Cleaning, disinfection, and air filtration was enhanced. Campus residents were screened daily and confirmed cases of COVID-19 were investigated. RESULTS: In the Bubble population, 148 043 COVID-19 reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) tests were performed across approximately 5000 individuals; Orlando had a 4% to 15% test positivity rate in this timeframe. There were 44 COVID-19 cases diagnosed either among persons during arrival quarantine or in non-team personnel while working on campus after testing but before receipt of a positive result. No cases of COVID-19 were identified among NBA players or NBA team staff living in the Bubble once cleared from quarantine. CONCLUSIONS: Drivers of success included the requirement for players and team staff to reside and remain on campus, well-trained compliance monitors, unified communication, layers of protection between teams and the outside, activation of high-quality laboratory diagnostics, and available mental health services. An emphasis on data management, evidence-based decision-making, and the willingness to evolve protocols were instrumental to successful operations. These lessons hold broad applicability for future pandemic preparedness efforts.

Association between the insulin-like growth factor axis in serum and periodontitis in the Study of Health in Pomerania: an exploratory study.

AIM: To evaluate the association of Insulin-like Growth Factor (IGF) I-related variables with periodontitis in the population-based Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP). MATERIAL AND METHODS: From the cross-sectional SHIP, 2293 subjects with clinical attachment loss (CAL) data and 2398 subjects with tooth count data aged 20-59 years were analysed. Serum IGF-I and IGF-binding protein (BP)-3 levels were determined by chemiluminescence immunoassays. Linear and logistic regressions with fractional polynomials were used to study associations between IGF-related variables and mean CAL or high tooth loss. For non-linear relations between IGFBP-3 and mean CAL, graphical presentations of fractional polynomials were used to deduce knots for linear splines. RESULTS: In fully adjusted models, for serum IGFBP-3 values ≤1200 ng/ml, mean CAL increased significantly for decreasing serum IGFBP-3 levels [B = -0.027 (95% CI, -0.049; -0.005), p = 0.02]. The odds for high tooth loss decreased significantly for high serum IGFBP-3 values [OR = 0.97 (0.95; 0.99), p = 0.02]. Serum IGF-I levels and the IGF-I/IGFBP-3 ratio were not related to mean CAL or tooth loss after full adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Low serum IGFBP-3 levels might be associated with higher levels of periodontal disease. Neither serum IGF-I nor IGF-I/IGFBP-3 ratios were associated with periodontitis.

Refining definitions of periodontal disease and caries for prediction models of incident tooth loss.

AIM: To assess the suitability of different definitions of caries and periodontitis for inclusion in tooth loss prediction models. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) is a population-based cohort study conducted in 1997-2001 (SHIP-0) and 2002-2006 (SHIP-1). This sample comprised 2,780 subjects aged 20-81 years with complete information on dental and periodontal status [DMFS status, clinical attachment loss (CAL) and probing depth (PD)]. Analyses on five-year tooth loss were limited to half-mouth data. RESULTS: The predictive value of tested definitions was markedly age- and gender-dependent: in 20-39-aged men, the number of decayed or filled surfaces best predicted the number of lost teeth, whereas in young women CAL≥4 mm performed best. In older subjects, periodontal definitions were superior to caries definitions: mean CAL performed best in 40-59-year olds, whereas AL- or PD-related definitions predicted best in 60-81-year olds. On tooth level, mean CAL was the superior definition to assess 5-year incident tooth loss in all strata except for young men. CONCLUSIONS: Caries parameters best predicted incident tooth loss in men aged 20-39 years; in the intermediate and oldest age group and in young women, mean AL was most informative. Therefore, prediction models need to be developed for different age and gender groups.