Managing resistance evolution to transgenic Bt maize in corn borers in Spain.

Since 1998, genetically engineered Bt maize varieties expressing the insecticidal Cry1Ab protein (i.e. event MON 810) have been grown in the European Union (EU), mainly in Spain. These varieties confer resistance against the European and Mediterranean corn borer (ECB and MCB), which are the major lepidopteran maize pests in the EU, particularly in Mediterranean areas. However, widespread, repeated and exclusive use of Bt maize is anticipated to increase the risk of Cry1Ab resistance to evolve in corn borer populations. To delay resistance evolution, typically, refuges of non-Bt maize are planted near or adjacent to, or within Bt maize fields. Moreover, changes in Cry1Ab susceptibility in field populations of corn borers and unexpected damage to maize MON 810, due to corn borers, are monitored on an annual basis. After two decades of Bt maize cultivation in Spain, neither resistant corn borer populations nor farmer complaints on unexpected field damage have been reported. However, whether the resistance monitoring strategy followed in Spain, currently based on discriminating concentration bioassays, is sufficiently sensitive to timely detect early warning signs of resistance in the field remains a point of contention. Moreover, the Cry1Ab resistance allele frequency to Bt maize, which has recently been estimated in MCB populations from north-eastern Spain, might exceed that recommended for successful resistance management. To ensure Bt maize durability in Spain, it is key that adequate resistance management approaches, including monitoring of resistance and farmer compliance with refuge requirements, continue to be implemented and are incorporated in integrated pest management schemes.

When the average hides the risk of Bt-corn pollen on non-target Lepidoptera: Application to Aglais io in Catalonia.

Field cultivation of Genetically Modified (GM) Bt-plants has a potential environmental risk toward non-target Lepidoptera (NTLs) larvae through the consumption of Bt-maize pollen. The Bt-maize Cry protein targeting Lepidoptera species detrimental to the crop is also expressed in pollen which is dispersed by wind and can thus reach habitats of NTLs. To better assess the current ecological risk of Bt-maize at landscape scales, we developed a spatially-explicit exposure-hazard model considering (i) the dynamics of pollen dispersal obtained by convolving GM plants emission with a dispersal kernel and (ii) a toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) model accounting for the impact of toxin ingestion on individual lethal effects. We simulated the model using real landscape observations in Catalonia (Spain): GM-maize locations, flowering dates, rainfall time series and larvae emergence date of the European peacock butterfly Aglais io. While in average, the additional mortality appears to be negligible, we show significant additional mortality at sub-population level, with for instance a mortality higher than 40% within the 10m for the 10% most Bt-sensitive individuals. Also, using Pareto optimality we capture the best trade-off between isolation distance and additional mortality: up to 50 m are required to significantly buffer Bt-pollen impact on NTLs survival at the individual level. Our study clears up the narrow line between diverging conclusions: those claiming no risk by only looking at the average regional effect of Bt on NTLs survival and those pointing out a significant threaten when considering the variability of individuals mortality.

A Spatio-Temporal Exposure-Hazard Model for Assessing Biological Risk and Impact.

We developed a simulation model for quantifying the spatio-temporal distribution of contaminants (e.g., xenobiotics) and assessing the risk of exposed populations at the landscape level. The model is a spatio-temporal exposure-hazard model based on (i) tools of stochastic geometry (marked polygon and point processes) for structuring the landscape and describing the exposed individuals, (ii) a dispersal kernel describing the dissemination of contaminants from polygon sources, and (iii) an (eco)toxicological equation describing the toxicokinetics and dynamics of contaminants in affected individuals. The model was implemented in the briskaR package (biological risk assessment with R) of the R software. This article presents the model background, the use of the package in an illustrative example, namely, the effect of genetically modified maize pollen on nontarget Lepidoptera, and typical comparisons of landscape configurations that can be carried out with our model (different configurations lead to different mortality rates in the treated example). In real case studies, parameters and parametric functions encountered in the model will have to be precisely specified to obtain realistic measures of risk and impact and accurate comparisons of landscape configurations. Our modeling framework could be applied to study other risks related to agriculture, for instance, pathogen spread in crops or livestock, and could be adapted to cope with other hazards such as toxic emissions from industrial areas having health effects on surrounding populations. Moreover, the R package has the potential to help risk managers in running quantitative risk assessments and testing management strategies.

Integrated weed management systems with herbicide-tolerant crops in the European Union: lessons learnt from home and abroad.

Conventionally bred (CHT) and genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops have changed weed management practices and made an important contribution to the global production of some commodity crops. However, a concern is that farm management practices associated with the cultivation of herbicide-tolerant (HT) crops further deplete farmland biodiversity and accelerate the evolution of herbicide-resistant (HR) weeds. Diversification in crop systems and weed management practices can enhance farmland biodiversity, and reduce the risk of weeds evolving herbicide resistance. Therefore, HT crops are most effective and sustainable as a component of an integrated weed management (IWM) system. IWM advocates the use of multiple effective strategies or tactics to manage weed populations in a manner that is economically and environmentally sound. In practice, however, the potential benefits of IWM with HT crops are seldom realized because a wide range of technical and socio-economic factors hamper the transition to IWM. Here, we discuss the major factors that limit the integration of HT crops and their associated farm management practices in IWM systems. Based on the experience gained in countries where CHT or GMHT crops are widely grown and the increased familiarity with their management, we propose five actions to facilitate the integration of HT crops in IWM systems within the European Union.

Sampling Strategies for Evaluating the Rate of Adventitious Transgene Presence in Non-Genetically Modified Crop Fields.

According to E.U. regulations, the maximum allowable rate of adventitious transgene presence in non-genetically modified (GM) crops is 0.9%. We compared four sampling methods for the detection of transgenic material in agricultural non-GM maize fields: random sampling, stratified sampling, random sampling + ratio reweighting, random sampling + regression reweighting. Random sampling involves simply sampling maize grains from different locations selected at random from the field concerned. The stratified and reweighting sampling methods make use of an auxiliary variable corresponding to the output of a gene-flow model (a zero-inflated Poisson model) simulating cross-pollination as a function of wind speed, wind direction, and distance to the closest GM maize field. With the stratified sampling method, an auxiliary variable is used to define several strata with contrasting transgene presence rates, and grains are then sampled at random from each stratum. With the two methods involving reweighting, grains are first sampled at random from various locations within the field, and the observations are then reweighted according to the auxiliary variable. Data collected from three maize fields were used to compare the four sampling methods, and the results were used to determine the extent to which transgene presence rate estimation was improved by the use of stratified and reweighting sampling methods. We found that transgene rate estimates were more accurate and that substantially smaller samples could be used with sampling strategies based on an auxiliary variable derived from a gene-flow model.

Toward a Reduced Reliance on Conventional Pesticides in European Agriculture.

Whether modern agriculture without conventional pesticides will be possible or not is a matter of debate. The debate is meaningful within the context of rising health and environmental awareness on one hand, and the global challenge of feeding a steadily growing human population on the other. Conventional pesticide use has come under pressure in many countries, and some European Union (EU) Member States have adopted policies for risk reduction following Directive 2009/128/EC, the sustainable use of pesticides. Highly diverse crop production systems across Europe, having varied geographic and climatic conditions, increase the complexity of European crop protection. The economic competitiveness of European agriculture is challenged by the current legislation, which banned the use of many previously authorized pesticides that are still available and applied in other parts of the world. This challenge could place EU agricultural production at a disadvantage, so EU farmers are seeking help from the research community to foster and support integrated pest management (IPM). Ensuring stable crop yields and quality while reducing the reliance on pesticides is a challenge facing the farming community is today. Considering this, we focus on several diverse situations in European agriculture in general and in European crop protection in particular. We emphasize that the marked biophysical and socio-economic differences across Europe have led to a situation where a meaningful reduction in pesticide use can hardly be achieved. Nevertheless, improvements and/or adoption of the knowledge and technologies of IPM can still achieve large gains in pesticide reduction. In this overview, the current pest problems and their integrated management are discussed in the context of specific geographic regions of Europe, with a particular emphasis on reduced pesticide use. We conclude that there are opportunities for reduction in many parts of Europe without significant losses in crop yields.

Assessment of the 2022 post-market environmental monitoring report on the cultivation of genetically modified maize MON 810 in the EU.

Following a request from the European Commission, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) assessed the 2022 post-market environmental monitoring (PMEM) report on the cultivation of Cry1Ab-expressing maize event MON 810. Overall, the 2022 PMEM report provides no evidence of adverse effects of maize MON 810 cultivation. It shows a high level of compliance with refuge requirements by Spanish and Portuguese farmers growing maize MON 810, but uncertainty remains on compliance in areas where the clustered surface of maize MON 810 farms exceeds 5 ha. There are no signs of practical resistance to Cry1Ab in the field in corn borer populations collected in north-eastern Spain in 2022, although a decrease in Cry1Ab susceptibility in Mediterranean corn borer populations from this area cannot be excluded. Information retrieved through farmer questionnaires in Spain and from the scientific literature reveals no unanticipated adverse effects on human and animal health or the environment arising from the cultivation of maize MON 810. Uncertainties remain on whether 'very highly' and 'extremely' sensitive non-target lepidoptera are potentially exposed to harmful amounts of MON 810 pollen. EFSA notes that several recommendations made in the frame of the assessment of previous PMEM reports remain unaddressed and identified additional shortcomings in the 2022 PMEM report that require further consideration by the consent holder in future annual PMEM reports. Particularly, EFSA emphasises the urgent need to increase the sensitivity of the insect resistance monitoring strategy and implement mitigation measures to ensure that the exposure of non-target lepidoptera to maize MON 810 pollen is reduced to levels of no concern.

Assessment of the 2021 post-market environmental monitoring report on the cultivation of genetically modified maize MON 810 in the EU.

Following a request from the European Commission, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) assessed the 2021 post-market environmental monitoring (PMEM) report on the cultivation of Cry1Ab-expressing maize event MON 810. Evidence provided in the PMEM report shows that farmers growing maize MON 810 in Spain complied partially with refuge requirements, while full compliance was achieved in Portugal. Cry1Ab susceptibility tests performed on European and Mediterranean corn borer populations collected from north-eastern Spain in 2021 indicated no symptoms of resistance evolution to maize MON 810. However, unexpected damage to maize MON 810 plants was observed in a field trial in the province of Girona (north-eastern Spain), which may point to the presence of resistance alleles in this region. Information retrieved through farmer questionnaires and the scientific literature reveals no unanticipated adverse effects on human and animal health or the environment arising from the cultivation of maize MON 810. Overall, EFSA concludes that the evidence reported in the 2021 PMEM report does not invalidate its previous conclusions on the safety of maize MON 810. The possible presence of Cry1Ab resistance alleles at frequencies leading to damage to maize MON 810 plants in Girona requires twofold actions: (1) increase monitoring efforts in this area; and (2) implement remedial measures to limit the suspected evolution and spread of resistance. As in previous years, EFSA identified shortcomings on resistance monitoring that need revision. In particular, full refuge compliance must be achieved in Spain. Moreover, the sensitivity of the monitoring plan must be increased, which can be achieved by replacing the current susceptibility assays by periodic F2 screens. EFSA also recommends the consent holder to revise the farmer questionnaires to account for the emergence of teosinte as a noxious agricultural weed in maize MON 810-growing areas in Spain.

Impact of gene stacking on gene flow: the case of maize.

To respect the European labelling threshold for the adventitious presence of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in food and feed, stakeholders mainly rely on real-time PCR analysis, which provides a measurement expressed as a percentage of GM-DNA. However, this measurement veils the complexity of gene flow, especially in the case of gene stacking. We have investigated the impact of gene stacking on adventitious GM presence due to pollen flow and seed admixture as well as its translation in terms of the percentage of GM-DNA in a non-GM maize harvest. In the case of varieties bearing one to four stacked events, we established a set of relationships between the percentage of GM kernels and the percentage of GM-DNA in a non-GM harvest as well as a set of relationships between the rate of seed admixture and the percentages of GM material in a non-GM harvest. Thanks to these relationships, and based on simulations with a gene flow model, we have been able to demonstrate that the number of events and the stacking structure of the emitting fields impact the ability of a non-GM maize producer to comply with given GM kernel or GM-DNA thresholds. We also show that a great variability in the rates of GM kernels, embryos and DNA results from seed admixture. Finally, the choice of a unit of measurement for a GM threshold in seed lots can have opposite effects on the ability of farmers to comply with a given threshold depending on whether they are crop or seed producers.

Feral genetically modified herbicide tolerant oilseed rape from seed import spills: are concerns scientifically justified?

One of the concerns surrounding the import (for food and feed uses or processing) of genetically modified herbicide tolerant (GMHT) oilseed rape is that, through seed spillage, the herbicide tolerance (HT) trait will escape into agricultural or semi-natural habitats, causing environmental or economic problems. Based on these concerns, three EU countries have invoked national safeguard clauses to ban the marketing of specific GMHT oilseed rape events on their territory. However, the scientific basis for the environmental and economic concerns posed by feral GMHT oilseed rape resulting from seed import spills is debatable. While oilseed rape has characteristics such as secondary dormancy and small seed size that enable it to persist and be redistributed in the landscape, the presence of ferals is not in itself an environmental or economic problem. Crucially, feral oilseed rape has not become invasive outside cultivated and ruderal habitats, and HT traits are not likely to result in increased invasiveness. Feral GMHT oilseed rape has the potential to introduce HT traits to volunteer weeds in agricultural fields, but would only be amplified if the herbicides to which HT volunteers are tolerant were used routinely in the field. However, this worst-case scenario is most unlikely, as seed import spills are mostly confined to port areas. Economic concerns revolve around the potential for feral GMHT oilseed rape to contribute to GM admixtures in non-GM crops. Since feral plants derived from cultivation (as distinct from import) occur at too low a frequency to affect the coexistence threshold of 0.9% in the EU, it can be concluded that feral GMHT plants resulting from seed import spills will have little relevance as a potential source of pollen or seed for GM admixture. This paper concludes that feral oilseed rape in Europe should not be routinely managed, and certainly not in semi-natural habitats, as the benefits of such action would not outweigh the negative effects of management.

Update of environmental risk assessment conclusions and risk management recommendations of EFSA (2016) on EU teosinte.

Teosinte, wild maize relatives originating from Mexico and Central America, emerged as a noxious agricultural weed in France and Spain. In 2016, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) issued a technical report that assessed the available scientific information on teosinte for its relevance for the environmental risk assessment (ERA) and risk management (RM) of genetically modified (GM) maize MON810, Bt11, 1507 and GA21 for cultivation. It was concluded that the impact of insect resistance and/or herbicide tolerance in GM teosinte hybrid progeny (potentially acquired through hybridisation between GM maize and teosinte) on target and non-target organisms, the abiotic environment and biogeochemical cycles would be very low under EU conditions. Following a request of the European Commission, EFSA evaluated whether the ERA conclusions and RM recommendations of EFSA (2016) remain applicable, or require revision in light of new scientific evidence on teosinte that has become available since the publication of EFSA (2016). A protocol was developed to clarify the interpretation of the terms of reference of the mandate and make them operational. The assessment relied on evidence retrieved via an extensive literature search and from reports of the Competent Authorities of France and Spain, and on hearing expert testimonies. A limited collection of 18 publications of varying relevance and quality was retrieved and assessed. Based on this evidence, it is concluded that the ERA conclusions and RM recommendations of EFSA (2016) remain applicable, except those pertaining to the use of glyphosate-based herbicides on maize GA21 which should be considered under Regulation (EC) No 1107/2009. In infested agricultural areas (especially in regions where maize MON810 is widely grown), weed management measures implemented to monitor, control and/or eradicate teosinte must remain in place, as they will contribute to further reduce the low vertical gene flow potential between GM maize and EU teosinte.

Assessment of the 2020 post-market environmental monitoring report on the cultivation of genetically modified maize MON 810 in the EU.

Following a request from the European Commission; the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) assessed the 2020 post-market environmental monitoring (PMEM) report on the cultivation of Cry1Ab-expressing maize event MON 810. Like previous years, there was full compliance with refuge requirement in Portugal and partial compliance with refuge requirements by Spanish farmers growing MON 810 varieties. European and Mediterranean corn borer populations collected from north-eastern Spain during the 2020 maize growing season and tested for Cry1Ab susceptibility show no symptoms of resistance to maize MON 810. The assessment of farmer questionnaires and relevant scientific publications does not indicate any unanticipated adverse effects on human and animal health or the environment arising from the cultivation of maize MON 810. Overall, EFSA concludes that the evidence reported in the 2020 PMEM report does not invalidate previous EFSA evaluations on the safety of maize MON 810. However, as in previous years, EFSA identifies shortcomings on resistance monitoring that need revision in future reports. In particular, the monitoring plan, as implemented in 2020, is not sufficiently sensitive to detect the recommended 3% resistance allele frequency. Consequently, EFSA strongly recommends the consent holder to achieve full compliance with refuge obligations in areas where adoption of maize MON 810 is high and increase the sensitivity of the monitoring plan by performing periodic F2-screens on corn borer populations from north-eastern Spain. EFSA recommends revising the farmer questionnaires when new characteristics of the receiving environment emerge which are relevant for the environmental risk assessment of MON 810 such as the emergence of teosinte. EFSA encourages the Competent authorities of concerned EU Member States, the consent holder and environmental networks to engage in a dialogue to develop a framework on how to best identify and report unexpected adverse effects from the cultivation of Bt maize varieties.

Assessment of the 2019 post-market environmental monitoring report on the cultivation of genetically modified maize MON 810 in the EU.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA assessed the 2019 post-market environmental monitoring (PMEM) report on the cultivation of Cry1Ab-expressing maize event MON 810. Like previous years, there was full compliance with refuge requirement in Portugal and partial compliance with refuge requirements by Spanish farmers growing MON 810 varieties. European and Mediterranean corn borer populations collected from north-eastern Spain during the 2019 maize growing season and tested for Cry1Ab susceptibility show no symptoms of resistance to maize MON 810. The assessment of farmer questionnaires and relevant scientific publications does not indicate any unanticipated adverse effects on human and animal health or the environment arising from the cultivation of maize MON 810. Overall, EFSA concludes that the evidence reported in the 2019 PMEM report does not invalidate previous EFSA evaluations on the safety of maize MON 810. However, as in previous years, EFSA identifies shortcomings on resistance monitoring that need revision in future reports. In particular, the monitoring plan, as implemented in 2019, is not sufficiently sensitive to detect the recommended 3% resistance allele frequency. Consequently, EFSA strongly recommends the consent holder to achieve full compliance with refuge obligations in areas where adoption of maize MON 810 is high and increase the sensitivity of the monitoring plan by performing periodic F2 screens on corn borer populations from north-eastern Spain. EFSA recommends revising the farmer questionnaires when new characteristics of the receiving environment emerge which are relevant for the environmental risk assessment of MON 810 such as the emergence of teosinte. EFSA encourages the Competent authorities of concerned EU Member States, the consent holder and environmental networks to engage in a dialogue to develop a framework on how to best identify and report unexpected adverse effects from the cultivation of Bt maize varieties.

EFSA is working to advance the environmental risk assessment of genetically modified crops to better protect butterflies and moths.

This publication is linked to the following EFSA Supporting Publications article: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2903/sp.efsa.2021.EN-6443/full.

A spatiotemporal dataset for integrated assessment and modelling of crop-livestock integration with the MAELIA simulation platform.

The general purpose of the primary and secondary data available in this article is to support an integrated assessment of scenarios of crop-livestock integration at the territorial level i.e. of exchanges between arable and livestock farms. The data is a result of a research collaboration between the scientist from INRAE, agricultural advisers from Chamber of Agriculture of Pays de la Loire (CRAPL) and a collective of five arable and two livestock farmers located in the district of Pays de Pouzauges (Vendée department, western France). All participants formed part of the DiverIMPACTS project (https://www.diverimpacts.net/) that aims to achieve the full potential of diversification of cropping systems for improved productivity, delivery of ecosystem services and resource-efficient and sustainable value chains in Europe. The first dataset corresponds to the inputs of MAELIA (http://maelia-platform.inra.fr/), a spatial agent-based simulation platform that was used to support an iterative design and assessment of scenarios to redesign cropping systems. The second dataset corresponds to the outputs of MAELIA simulations and the associated indicators at the farm, group and territory level. The data comprise multiple shape and csv files characterizing the edaphic-climatic heterogeneity of the territory and cropping systems, farmers' crop management rules (IF-THEN rules) and general information about the farms (e.g. crops, agricultural equipment, average crop yields). Data is reported for the baseline situation and three exchange scenarios containing different innovative cropping systems co-designed by scientists, agricultural advisers and the farmers. The data presented here can be found in the Portail Data INRA repository (https://doi.org/10.15454/3ZTCF5) and were used in the research article "Fostering local crop-livestock integration via legume exchanges using an innovative integrated assessment and modelling approach: MAELIA" [1].

Evaluation of existing guidelines for their adequacy for the molecular characterisation and environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants obtained through synthetic biology.

Synthetic Biology (SynBio) is an interdisciplinary field at the interface of engineering and biology aiming to develop new biological systems and impart new functions to living cells. EFSA has been asked by the European Commission to evaluate SynBio developments in agri-food with the aim of identifying the adequacy of existing guidelines for risk assessment and determine if updated guidance is needed. The scope of this opinion covers the molecular characterisation and environmental risk assessment of such genetically modified plants obtained through SynBio, meant to be for cultivation or food and feed purposes. The previous work on SynBio by the non-food scientific Committees (2014, 2015) was used and complemented with the output of a horizon scanning exercise, which was commissioned by the EFSA to identify the most realistic and forthcoming SynBio cases of relevance to this remit. The horizon scan did not identify other sectors/advances in addition to the six SynBio categories previously identified by the non-food scientific committees of the European Commission. The exercise did show that plant SynBio products reaching the market in the near future (next decade) are likely to apply SynBio approaches to their development using existing genetic modification and genome editing technologies. In addition, three hypothetical SynBio case studies were selected by the working group of the Panel on Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO), to further support the scoping exercise of this Scientific Opinion. Using the selected cases, the GMO Panel concludes that the requirements of the EU regulatory framework and existing EFSA guidelines are adequate for the risk assessment of SynBio products to be developed in the next 10 years, although specific requirements may not apply to all products. The GMO Panel acknowledges that as SynBio developments evolve, a need may exist to adjust the guidelines to ensure they are adequate and sufficient.

Assessment of the 2018 post-market environmental monitoring report on the cultivation of genetically modified maize MON 810 in the EU.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA assessed the 2018 post-market environmental monitoring (PMEM) report on the cultivation of Cry1Ab-expressing maize event MON 810. Like previous years, there was partial compliance with refuge requirements by Spanish farmers growing MON 810 varieties. European and Mediterranean corn borer populations collected from north-eastern Spain during the 2018 maize growing season and tested for Cry1Ab susceptibility show no symptoms of resistance to maize MON 810. The assessment of farmer questionnaires and relevant scientific publications does not indicate any unanticipated adverse effects on human and animal health or the environment arising from the cultivation of maize MON 810. The report does not provide information about the use of existing networks involved in environmental monitoring. Overall, EFSA concludes that the evidence reported in the 2018 PMEM report does not invalidate previous EFSA evaluations on the safety of maize MON 810. However, as in previous years, EFSA identifies shortcomings on resistance monitoring that need revision in future reports. In particular, the monitoring plan, as implemented in 2018, is not sufficiently sensitive to detect the recommended 3% resistance allele frequency. Consequently, EFSA strongly recommends the consent holder to: (1) achieve full compliance with refuge obligations in areas where adoption of maize MON 810 is high; (2) increase the sensitivity of the monitoring plan and address previously mentioned limitations for resistance monitoring; and (3) perform an F2 screen on corn borer populations from north-eastern Spain. A fit-for-purpose farmer alert system may help to detect unexpected adverse effects associated with the cultivation of MON 810 varieties and be an alternative to the current farmer survey system. Moreover, relevant stakeholders should implement a methodological framework to enable making the best use of existing networks involved in environmental monitoring for the general surveillance of genetically modified plants.

Spatial exposure-hazard and landscape models for assessing the impact of GM crops on non-target organisms.

The cultivation of Genetically Modified (GM) crops may have substantial impacts on populations of non-target organisms (NTOs) in agroecosystems. These impacts should be assessed at larger spatial scales than the cultivated field, and, as landscape-scale experiments are difficult, if not impossible, modelling approaches are needed to address landscape risk management. We present an original stochastic and spatially explicit modelling framework for assessing the risk at the landscape level. We use techniques from spatial statistics for simulating simplified landscapes made up of (aggregated or non-aggregated) GM fields, neutral fields and NTO's habitat areas. The dispersal of toxic pollen grains is obtained by convolving the emission of GM plants and validated dispersal kernel functions while the locations of exposed individuals are drawn from a point process. By taking into account the adherence of the ambient pollen on plants, the loss of pollen due to climatic events, and, an experimentally-validated mortality-dose function we predict risk maps and provide a distribution giving how the risk varies within exposed individuals in the landscape. Then, we consider the impact of the Bt maize on Inachis io in worst-case scenarii where exposed individuals are located in the vicinity of GM fields and pollen shedding overlaps with larval emergence. We perform a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to explore numerically how our input parameters influence the risk. Our results confirm the important effects of pollen emission and loss. Most interestingly they highlight that the optimal spatial distribution of GM fields that mitigates the risk depends on our knowledge of the habitats of NTOs, and finally, moderate the influence of the dispersal kernel function.

Annual post-market environmental monitoring report on the cultivation of genetically modified maize MON 810 in 2016.

Following a request from the European Commission, EFSA assessed the annual post-market environmental monitoring (PMEM) report for the 2016 growing season of the Cry1Ab-expressing maize event MON 810 provided by Monsanto Europe S.A. Partial compliance with refuge requirements was reported in Spain, as observed in previous years. EFSA reiterates the need to achieve full compliance in areas of high maize MON 810 adoption to delay resistance evolution, and therefore advocates increasing the level of compliance in such areas. Resistance monitoring data do not indicate a decrease in susceptibility to the Cry1Ab protein in the field corn borer populations tested in the 2016 season. However, EFSA identified some methodological and reporting limitations pertaining to resistance monitoring that need improvement in future PMEM reports. No complaints related to corn borer infestation of maize MON 810 were received via the farmer alert system during the 2016 cultivation season. EFSA encourages the consent holder to provide more information on this complementary resistance monitoring tool. The data on general surveillance do not indicate any unanticipated adverse effects on human and animal health or the environment arising from the cultivation of maize MON 810. EFSA reiterates its recommendations on the methodology and analysis of farmer questionnaires, and considers that future literature searches on maize MON 810 performed in the context of annual PMEM reports should follow the guidelines given in the 2017 EFSA explanatory note on literature searching. Moreover, EFSA encourages relevant stakeholders to implement a methodological framework that enables the use of existing networks in the broader context of environmental monitoring. EFSA concludes that no new evidence has been reported in the 2016 PMEM report that would invalidate previous EFSA evaluations on the safety of maize MON 810.