RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Soil N mineralisation is the process by which organic N is converted into plant-available forms, while soil N immobilisation is the transformation of inorganic soil N into organic matter and microbial biomass, thereafter becoming bio-unavailable to plants. Mechanistic models can be used to explore the contribution of mineralised or immobilised N to pasture growth through simulation of plant, soil and environment interactions driven by management. PURPOSE: Our objectives were (1) to compare the performance of three agro-ecosystems models (APSIM, DayCent and DairyMod) in simulating soil N, pasture biomass and soil water using the same experimental data in three diverse environments (2), to determine if tactical application of N fertiliser in different seasons could be used to leverage seasonal trends in N mineralisation to influence pasture growth and (3), to explore the sensitivity of N mineralisation to changes in N fertilisation, cutting frequency and irrigation rate. KEY RESULTS: Despite considerable variation in model sophistication, no model consistently outperformed the other models with respect to simulation of soil N, shoot biomass or soil water. Differences in the accuracy of simulated soil NH4 and NO3 were greater between sites than between models and overall, all models simulated cumulative N2O well. While tactical N application had immediate effects on NO3, NH4, N mineralisation and pasture growth, no long-term relationship between mineralisation and pasture growth could be discerned. It was also shown that N mineralisation of DayCent was more sensitive to N fertiliser and cutting frequency compared with the other models. MAJOR CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that while superfluous N fertilisation generally stimulates immobilisation and a pulse of N2O emissions, subsequent effects through N mineralisation/immobilisation effects on pasture growth are variable. We suggest that further controlled environment soil incubation research may help separate successive and overlapping cycles of mineralisation and immobilisation that make it difficult to diagnose long-term implications for (and associations with) pasture growth.
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Nitrous oxide (N2 O) is a potent greenhouse gas that is primarily emitted from agriculture. Sampling limitations have generally resulted in discontinuous N2 O observations over the course of any given year. The status quo for interpolating between sampling points has been to use a simple linear interpolation. This can be problematic with N2 O emissions, since they are highly variable and sampling bias around these peak emission periods can have dramatic impacts on cumulative emissions. Here, we outline five gap-filling practices: linear interpolation, generalized additive models (GAMs), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), random forest (RF), and neural networks (NNs) that have been used for gap-filling soil N2 O emissions. To facilitate the use of improved gap-filling methods, we describe the five methods and then provide strengths and challenges or weaknesses of each method so that model selection can be improved. We then outline a protocol that details data organization and selection, splitting of data into training and testing datasets, building and testing models, and reporting results. Use of advanced gap-filling methods within a standardized protocol is likely to increase transparency, improve emission estimates, reduce uncertainty, and increase capacity to quantify the impact of mitigation practices.
Assuntos
Gases de Efeito Estufa , Óxido Nitroso/análise , Agricultura , Solo , IncertezaRESUMO
Future climatic changes may have profound impacts on cropping systems and affect the agronomic and environmental sustainability of current N management practices. The objectives of this work were to i) evaluate the ability of the SALUS crop model to reproduce experimental crop yield and soil nitrate dynamics results under different N fertilizer treatments in a farmer's field, ii) use the SALUS model to estimate the impacts of different N fertilizer treatments on NO3- leaching under future climate scenarios generated by twenty nine different global circulation models, and iii) identify the management system that best minimizes NO3- leaching and maximizes yield under projected future climate conditions. A field experiment (maize-triticale rotation) was conducted in a nitrate vulnerable zone on the west coast of Sardinia, Italy to evaluate N management strategies that include urea fertilization (NMIN), conventional fertilization with dairy slurry and urea (CONV), and no fertilization (N0). An ensemble of 29 global circulation models (GCM) was used to simulate different climate scenarios for two Representative Circulation Pathways (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) and evaluate potential nitrate leaching and biomass production in this region over the next 50 years. Data collected from two growing seasons showed that the SALUS model adequately simulated both nitrate leaching and crop yield, with a relative error that ranged between 0.4% and 13%. Nitrate losses under RCP8.5 were lower than under RCP6.0 only for NMIN. Accordingly, levels of plant N uptake, N use efficiency and biomass production were higher under RCP8.5 than RCP6.0. Simulations under both RCP scenarios indicated that the NMIN treatment demonstrated both the highest biomass production and NO3- losses. The newly proposed best management practice (BMP), developed from crop N uptake data, was identified as the optimal N fertilizer management practice since it minimized NO3- leaching and maximized biomass production over the long term.