The Coronavirus Disease 2019 Rebound Study: A Prospective Cohort Study to Evaluate Viral and Symptom Rebound Differences in Participants Treated With Nirmatrelvir Plus Ritonavir Versus Untreated Controls.

BACKGROUND: The uptake of nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir (NPR) in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been limited by concerns around the rebound phenomenon despite the scarcity of evidence around its epidemiology. The purpose of this study was to prospectively compare the epidemiology of rebound in NPR-treated and untreated participants with acute COVID-19 infection. METHODS: We designed a prospective, observational study in which participants who tested positive for COVID-19 and were clinically eligible for NPR were recruited to be evaluated for either viral or symptom clearance and rebound. Participants were assigned to the treatment or control group based on their decision to take NPR. Following initial diagnosis, both groups were provided 12 rapid antigen tests and asked to test on a regular schedule for 16 days and answer symptom surveys. Viral rebound based on test results and COVID-19 symptom rebound based on patient-reported symptoms were evaluated. RESULTS: Viral rebound incidence was 14.2% in the NPR treatment group (n = 127) and 9.3% in the control group (n = 43). Symptom rebound incidence was higher in the treatment group (18.9%) compared to controls (7.0%). There were no notable differences in viral rebound by age, gender, preexisting conditions, or major symptom groups during the acute phase or at the 1-month interval. CONCLUSIONS: This preliminary report suggests that rebound after clearance of test positivity or symptom resolution is higher than previously reported. However, notably we observed a similar rate of rebound in both the NPR treatment and control groups. Large studies with diverse participants and extended follow-up are needed to better understand the rebound phenomena.

Assessing the Effects of Measles Virus Infections on Childhood Infectious Disease Mortality in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Measles virus infection induces acute immunosuppression for weeks following infection, and also impairs preexisting immunological memory, resulting in "immune amnesia" that can last for years. Both mechanisms predispose the host to severe outcomes of subsequent infections. Therefore, measles dynamics could potentially affect the epidemiology of other infectious diseases. METHODS: To examine this hypothesis, we analyzed the annual mortality rates of children aged 1-9 years in Brazil from 1980 to 1995. We calculated the correlation between nonmeasles infectious disease mortality rates and measles mortality rates using linear and negative-binomial models, with 3 methods to control the confounding effects of time. We also estimated the duration of measles-induced immunomodulation. RESULTS: The mortality rates of nonmeasles infectious diseases and measles virus infection were highly correlated. This positive correlation remained significant after removing the time trends. We found no evidence of long-term measles immunomodulation beyond 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: These results support that measles virus infection could increase the mortality of other infectious diseases. The short lag identified for measles effects (<1 year) implies that acute immunosuppression was potentially driving this effect in Brazil. Overall, our study indicates disproportionate contributions of measles to childhood infectious disease mortality, highlighting the importance of measles vaccination.

Mathematical Modeling to Inform Vaccination Strategies and Testing Approaches for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Nursing Homes.

BACKGROUND: Nursing home residents and staff were included in the first phase of coronavirus disease 2019 vaccination in the United States. Because the primary trial endpoint was vaccine efficacy (VE) against symptomatic disease, there are limited data on the extent to which vaccines protect against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and the ability to infect others (infectiousness). Assumptions about VE against infection and infectiousness have implications for changes to infection prevention guidance for vaccinated populations, including testing strategies. METHODS: We use a stochastic agent-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious (Asymptomatic/Symptomatic)-Recovered model of a nursing home to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We model 3 scenarios, varying VE against infection, infectiousness, and symptoms, to understand the expected impact of vaccination in nursing homes, increasing staff vaccination coverage, and different screening testing strategies under each scenario. RESULTS: Increasing vaccination coverage in staff decreases total symptomatic cases in the nursing home (among staff and residents combined) in each VE scenario. In scenarios with 50% and 90% VE against infection and infectiousness, increasing staff coverage reduces symptomatic cases among residents. If vaccination only protects against symptoms, and asymptomatic cases remain infectious, increased staff coverage increases symptomatic cases among residents. However, this is outweighed by the reduction in symptomatic cases among staff. Higher frequency testing-more than once weekly-is needed to reduce total symptomatic cases if the vaccine has lower efficacy against infection and infectiousness, or only protects against symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Encouraging staff vaccination is not only important for protecting staff, but might also reduce symptomatic cases in residents if a vaccine confers at least some protection against infection or infectiousness.

Cross-Sectional Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load by Symptom Status in Massachusetts Congregate Living Facilities.

Transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from people without symptoms confounds societal mitigation strategies. From April to June 2020, we tested nasopharyngeal swabs by reverse transcriptase quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) from 15 514 staff and 16 966 residents of nursing homes and assisted living facilities in Massachusetts. Cycle threshold (Ct) distributions were very similar between populations with (n = 739) and without (n = 2179) symptoms at the time of sampling (mean Ct, 25.7 vs 26.4; ranges 12-38). However, as local cases waned, those without symptoms shifted towards higher Ct. With such similar viral load distributions, existing testing modalities should perform comparably regardless of symptoms, contingent upon time since infection.

Comprehensive Profiling of Zika Virus Risk with Natural and Artificial Mitigating Strategies, United States.

Zika virus is transitioning to become a long-term public health challenge, and countries should remain informed of the risk for emergence. We developed a stochastic epidemiologic model to profile risk for Zika virus emergence, including trimester-specific fetal risk across time, in all 3,208 counties in the United States, including Puerto Rico. Validation against known transmission in North America demonstrated accuracy to predict epidemic dynamics and absolute case counts across scales (R2 = 0.98). We found that, although sporadic single transmission events could occur in most US counties, outbreaks will likely be restricted to the Gulf Coast region and to late spring through autumn. Seasonal fluctuations in birth rates will confer natural population-level protection against early-trimester infections. Overall, outbreak control will be more effective and efficient than prevention, and vaccination will be most effective at >70% coverage. Our county-level risk profiles should serve as a critical resource for resource allocation.

Modeling the measles paradox reveals the importance of cellular immunity in regulating viral clearance.

Measles virus (MV) is a highly contagious member of the Morbillivirus genus that remains a major cause of childhood mortality worldwide. Although infection induces a strong MV-specific immune response that clears viral load and confers lifelong immunity, transient immunosuppression can also occur, leaving the host vulnerable to colonization from secondary pathogens. This apparent contradiction of viral clearance in the face of immunosuppression underlies what is often referred to as the 'measles paradox', and remains poorly understood. To explore the mechanistic basis underlying the measles paradox, and identify key factors driving viral clearance, we return to a previously published dataset of MV infection in rhesus macaques. These data include virological and immunological information that enable us to fit a mathematical model describing how the virus interacts with the host immune system. In particular, our model incorporates target cell depletion through infection of host immune cells-a hallmark of MV pathology that has been neglected from previous models. We find the model captures the data well, and that both target cell depletion and immune activation are required to explain the overall dynamics. Furthermore, by simulating conditions of increased target cell availability and suppressed cellular immunity, we show that the latter causes greater increases in viral load and delays to MV clearance. Overall, this signals a more dominant role for cellular immunity in resolving acute MV infection. Interestingly, we find contrasting dynamics dominated by target cell depletion when viral fitness is increased. This may have wider implications for animal morbilliviruses, such as canine distemper virus (CDV), that cause fatal target cell depletion in their natural hosts. To our knowledge this work represents the first fully calibrated within-host model of MV dynamics and, more broadly, provides a new platform from which to explore the complex mechanisms underlying Morbillivirus infection.

Live attenuated influenza virus increases pneumococcal translocation and persistence within the middle ear.

BACKGROUND: Infection with influenza A virus (IAV) increases susceptibility to respiratory bacterial infections, resulting in increased bacterial carriage and complications such acute otitis media, pneumonia, bacteremia, and meningitis. Recently, vaccination with live attenuated influenza virus (LAIV) was reported to enhance subclinical bacterial colonization within the nasopharynx, similar to IAV. Although LAIV does not predispose to bacterial pneumonia, whether it may alter bacterial transmigration toward the middle ear, where it could have clinically relevant implications, has not been investigated. METHODS: BALB/c mice received LAIV or phosphate-buffered saline 1 or 7 days before or during pneumococcal colonization with either of 2 clinical isolates, 19F or 7F. Middle ear bacterial titers were monitored daily via in vivo imaging. RESULTS: LAIV increased bacterial transmigration to and persistence within the middle ear. When colonization followed LAIV inoculation, a minimum LAIV incubation period of 4 days was required before bacterial transmigration commenced. CONCLUSIONS: While LAIV vaccination is safe and effective at reducing IAV and coinfection with influenza virus and bacteria, LAIV may increase bacterial transmigration to the middle ear and could thus increase the risk of clinically relevant acute otitis media. These data warrant further investigations into interactions between live attenuated viruses and naturally colonizing bacterial pathogens.

Live attenuated influenza vaccine, but not pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, protects against increased density and duration of pneumococcal carriage after influenza infection in pneumococcal colonized mice.

Secondary bacterial infections due to Streptococcus pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus, responsible for excess morbidity and mortality during influenza epidemics, are often preceded by excess bacterial density within the upper respiratory tract. Influenza and pneumococcal vaccines reduce secondary infections within the lungs; however, their effects on upper respiratory tract carriage remain unknown. We demonstrate that a live attenuated influenza vaccine significantly reduces pneumococcal growth and duration of carriage during subsequent influenza to levels seen in influenza-naive controls. No benefit was seen after pneumococcal conjugate vaccine. Our results suggest that live attenuated influenza vaccines may significantly reduce bacterial disease during influenza epidemics.

Serologic Response to the Epstein-Barr Virus Peptidome and the Risk for Multiple Sclerosis.

Importance: It remains unclear why only a small proportion of individuals infected with the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) develop multiple sclerosis (MS) and what the underlying mechanisms are. Objective: To assess the serologic response to all EBV peptides before the first symptoms of MS occur, determine whether the disease is associated with a distinct immune response to EBV, and evaluate whether specific EBV epitopes drive this response. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this prospective, nested case-control study, individuals were selected among US military personnel with serum samples stored in the US Department of Defense Serum Repository. Individuals with MS had serum collected at a median 1 year before onset (reported to the military in 2000-2011) and were matched to controls for age, sex, race and ethnicity, blood collection, and military branch. No individuals were excluded. The data were analyzed between September 1, 2022, and August 31, 2023. Exposure: Antibodies (enrichment z scores) to the human virome measured using VirScan (phage-displayed immunoprecipitation and sequencing). Main Outcome and Measure: Rate ratios (RRs) for MS for antibodies to 2263 EBV peptides (the EBV peptidome) were estimated using conditional logistic regression, adjusting for total anti-EBV nuclear antigen 1 (EBNA-1) antibodies, which have consistently been associated with a higher MS risk. The role of antibodies against other viral peptides was also explored. Results: A total of 30 individuals with MS were matched with 30 controls. Mean (SD) age at sample collection was 27.8 (6.5) years; 46 of 60 participants (76.7%) were male. The antibody response to the EBV peptidome was stronger in individuals with MS, but without a discernible pattern. The antibody responses to 66 EBV peptides, the majority mapping to EBNA antigens, were significantly higher in preonset sera from individuals with MS (RR of highest vs lowest tertile of antibody enrichment, 33.4; 95% CI, 2.5-448.4; P for trend = .008). Higher total anti-EBNA-1 antibodies were also associated with an elevated MS risk (top vs bottom tertile: RR, 27.6; 95% CI, 2.3-327.6; P for trend = .008). After adjusting for total anti-EBNA-1 antibodies, risk estimates from most EBV peptides analyses were attenuated, with 4 remaining significantly associated with MS, the strongest within EBNA-6/EBNA-3C, while the association between total anti-EBNA-1 antibodies and MS persisted. Conclusion and Relevance: These findings suggest that antibody response to EBNA-1 may be the strongest serologic risk factor for MS. No single EBV peptide stood out as being selectively targeted in individuals with MS but not controls. Larger investigations are needed to explore possible heterogeneity of anti-EBV humoral immunity in MS.

Real World Performance of SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid Diagnostic Tests in Various Clinical Settings.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the validity of Antigen rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDT) for SARS-CoV-2 as decision support tool in various hospital-based clinical settings. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study among symptomatic and asymptomatic patients and Healthcare workers (HCW). SETTING: A large tertiary teaching medical center serving as a major COVID-19 hospitalizing facility. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: Ag-RDTs' performance was assessed in three clinical settings: 1. Symptomatic patients and HCW presenting at the Emergency Departments 2. Asymptomatic patients screened upon hospitalization 3. HCW of all sectors tested at the HCW clinic following exposure. RESULTS: We obtained 5172 samples from 4595 individuals, who had both Ag-RDT and quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) results available. Of these, 485 samples were positive by qRT-PCR. The positive percent agreement (PPA) of Ag-RDT was greater for lower cycle threshold (Ct) values, reaching 93% in cases where Ct-value was <25 and 85% where Ct-value was <30. PPA was similar between symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. We observed a significant correlation between Ct-value and time from infection onset (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Ag-RDT are highly sensitive to the infectious stage of COVID-19 manifested by either high viral load (lower Ct) or proximity to infection, whether patient is symptomatic or asymptomatic. Thus, this simple-to-use and inexpensive detection method can be used as a decision support tool in various in-hospital clinical settings, assisting patient flow and maintaining sufficient hospital staffing.

Longitudinal analysis reveals high prevalence of Epstein-Barr virus associated with multiple sclerosis.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory demyelinating disease of the central nervous system of unknown etiology. We tested the hypothesis that MS is caused by Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) in a cohort comprising more than 10 million young adults on active duty in the US military, 955 of whom were diagnosed with MS during their period of service. Risk of MS increased 32-fold after infection with EBV but was not increased after infection with other viruses, including the similarly transmitted cytomegalovirus. Serum levels of neurofilament light chain, a biomarker of neuroaxonal degeneration, increased only after EBV seroconversion. These findings cannot be explained by any known risk factor for MS and suggest EBV as the leading cause of MS.

Recalibrating SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid Lateral Flow Test Relative Sensitivity from Validation Studies to Absolute Sensitivity for Indicating Individuals Shedding Transmissible Virus.

Testing for SARS-CoV-2 internationally has focused on COVID-19 diagnosis among symptomatic individuals using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests. Recently, however, SARS-CoV-2 antigen rapid lateral flow tests (LFT) have been rolled out in several countries for testing asymptomatic individuals in public health programmes. Validation studies for LFT have been largely cross-sectional, reporting sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of LFT relative to PCR. However, because PCR detects genetic material left behind for a long period when the individual is no longer infectious, these statistics can under-represent the sensitivity of LFT for detecting infectious individuals, especially when sampling asymptomatic populations. LFTs (intended to detect individuals shedding SARS-CoV-2 antigens) validated against PCR (intended to diagnose infection) are not reporting against a gold standard of equivalent measurements. Instead, these validation studies have reported relative performance statistics that need recalibrating to the purpose for which LFT is being used. We present an approach to this recalibration. We derive a formula for recalibrating relative performance statistics from LFT vs PCR validation studies to give likely absolute sensitivity of LFT for detecting individuals who are shedding shedding SARS-CoV-2 antigens. We contrast widely reported apparent sensitivities of LFT with recalibrated absolute sensitivity for detecting individuals shedding SARS-CoV-2 antigens. After accounting for within-individual viral kinetics and epidemic dynamics within asymptomatic populations we show that a highly performant test for SARS-CoV-2 antigen should show LFT-to-PCR relative sensitivity of less than 50% in conventional validation studies, which after re-calibration would be an absolute sensitivity of more than 80%. Further studies are needed to ascertain the absolute sensitivity of LFT as a test of infectiousness in COVID-19 responses. These studies should include longitudinal series of LFT and PCR, ideally in cohorts sampled from both contacts of cases and the general population.

Mathematical modeling to inform vaccination strategies and testing approaches for COVID-19 in nursing homes.

BACKGROUND: Nursing home residents and staff were included in the first phase of COVID-19 vaccination in the United States. Because the primary trial endpoint was vaccine efficacy (VE) against symptomatic disease, there are limited data on the extent to which vaccines protect against SARS-CoV-2 infection and the ability to infect others (infectiousness). Assumptions about VE against infection and infectiousness have implications for possible changes to infection prevention guidance for vaccinated populations, including testing strategies. METHODS: We use a stochastic agent-based SEIR model of a nursing home to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We model three scenarios, varying VE against infection, infectiousness, and symptoms, to understand the expected impact of vaccination in nursing homes, increasing staff vaccination coverage, and different screening testing strategies under each scenario. RESULTS: Increasing vaccination coverage in staff decreases total symptomatic cases in each scenario. When there is low VE against infection and infectiousness, increasing staff coverage reduces symptomatic cases among residents. If vaccination only protects against symptoms, but asymptomatic cases remain infectious, increased staff coverage increases symptomatic cases among residents through exposure to asymptomatic but infected staff. High frequency testing is needed to reduce total symptomatic cases if the vaccine has low efficacy against infection and infectiousness, or only protects against symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Encouraging staff vaccination is not only important for protecting staff, but might also reduce symptomatic cases in residents if a vaccine confers at least some protection against infection or infectiousness. SUMMARY: The extent of efficacy of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines against infection, infectiousness, or disease, impacts strategies for vaccination and testing in nursing homes. If vaccines confer some protection against infection or infectiousness, encouraging vaccination in staff may reduce symptomatic cases in residents.

Estimation of Transmission of COVID-19 in Simulated Nursing Homes With Frequent Testing and Immunity-Based Staffing.

Importance: Nursing homes and other long-term care facilities have been disproportionately impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Strategies are urgently needed to reduce transmission in these high-risk populations. Objective: To evaluate COVID-19 transmission in nursing homes associated with contact-targeted interventions and testing. Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytical modeling study developed an agent-based susceptible-exposed-infectious (asymptomatic/symptomatic)-recovered model between July and September 2020 to examine SARS-CoV-2 transmission in nursing homes. Residents and staff of a simulated nursing home with 100 residents and 100 staff split among 3 shifts were modeled individually; residents were split into 2 cohorts based on COVID-19 diagnosis. Data were analyzed from September to October 2020. Exposures: In the resident cohorting intervention, residents who had recovered from COVID-19 were moved back from the COVID-19 (ie, infected with SARS-CoV-2) cohort to the non-COVID-19 (ie, susceptible and uninfected with SARS-CoV-2) cohort. In the immunity-based staffing intervention, staff who had recovered from COVID-19 were assumed to have protective immunity and were assigned to work in the non-COVID-19 cohort, while susceptible staff worked in the COVID-19 cohort and were assumed to have high levels of protection from personal protective equipment. These interventions aimed to reduce the fraction of people's contacts that were presumed susceptible (and therefore potentially infected) and replaced them with recovered (immune) contacts. A secondary aim of was to evaluate cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections associated with 2 types of screening tests (ie, rapid antigen testing and polymerase chain reaction [PCR] testing) conducted with varying frequency. Main Outcomes and Measures: Estimated cumulative incidence proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection after 3 months. Results: Among the simulated cohort of 100 residents and 100 staff members, frequency and type of testing were associated with smaller outbreaks than the cohorting and staffing interventions. The testing strategy associated with the greatest estimated reduction in infections was daily antigen testing, which reduced the mean cumulative incidence proportion by 49% in absence of contact-targeted interventions. Under all screening testing strategies, the resident cohorting intervention and the immunity-based staffing intervention were associated with reducing the final estimated size of the outbreak among residents, with the immunity-based staffing intervention reducing it more (eg, by 19% in the absence of testing) than the resident cohorting intervention (eg, by 8% in the absence of testing). The estimated reduction in transmission associated with these interventions among staff varied by testing strategy and community prevalence. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that increasing the frequency of screening testing of all residents and staff, or even staff alone, in nursing homes may reduce outbreaks in this high-risk setting. Immunity-based staffing may further reduce spread at little or no additional cost and becomes particularly important when daily testing is not feasible.