Livebirth rate after one frozen embryo transfer in ovulatory women starting with natural, modified natural, or artificial endometrial preparation in Viet Nam: an open-label randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Use of frozen embryo transfer (FET) in in-vitro fertilisation (IVF) has increased. However, the best endometrial preparation protocol for FET cycles is unclear. We compared natural and modified natural cycle strategies with an artificial cycle strategy for endometrial preparation before FET. METHODS: In this randomised, open-label study, we recruited ovulatory women aged 18-45 years at a hospital in Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam, who were randomly allocated (1:1:1) to natural, modified natural, or artificial cycle endometrial preparation using a computer-generated random list and block randomisation. The trial was not masked due to the nature of the study interventions. In natural cycles, no oestrogen, progesterone, or human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) was used. In modified natural cycles, hCG was used to trigger ovulation. In artificial cycles, oral oestradiol valerate (8 mg/day from day 2-4 of menstruation) and vaginal progesterone (800 mg/day starting when endometrial thickness was ≥7 mm) were used. Embryos were vitrified, and then one or two day-3 embryos or one day-5 embryo were warmed and transferred under ultrasound guidance. If the first FET cycle was cancelled, subsequent cycles were performed with artificial endometrial preparation. The primary endpoint was livebirth after one FET. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04804020. FINDINGS: Between March 22, 2021, and March 14, 2023, 4779 women were screened and 1428 were randomly assigned (476 to each group). 99 first FET cycles were cancelled in each of the natural and modified cycle groups, versus none in the artificial cycle group. The livebirth rate after one FET was 174 (37%) of 476 in the natural cycle strategy group, 159 (33%) of 476 in the modified natural cycle strategy group, and 162 (34%) of 476 in the artificial cycle strategy group (relative risk 1·07 [95% CI 0·87-1·33] for natural vs artificial cycle strategy, and 0·98 [0·79-1·22] for modified natural vs artificial cycle strategy). Maternal and neonatal outcomes did not differ significantly between groups, as the power to detect small differences was low. INTERPRETATION: Although the livebirth rate was similar after natural, modified natural, and artificial cycle endometrial preparation strategies in ovulatory women undergoing FET IVF, no definitive conclusions can be made regarding the comparative safety of the three approaches. FUNDING: None.

Intracytoplasmic sperm injection versus conventional in-vitro fertilisation for couples with infertility with non-severe male factor: a multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Introduced in 1992, intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) was initially indicated for severe male infertility; however, its use has since been expanded to non-severe male infertility. We aimed to compare the efficacy and safety of ICSI versus conventional in-vitro fertilisation (IVF) in couples with infertility with non-severe male factor. METHODS: We conducted an investigator-initiated, multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial in ten reproductive medicine centres across China. Couples with infertility with non-severe male factor without a history of poor fertilisation were randomly assigned (1:1) to undergo either ICSI or conventional IVF. The primary outcome was live birth after first embryo transfer. We performed the primary analysis in the intention-to-treat population using log-binomial regression models for categorical outcomes or linear regression models for continuous outcomes, adjusting for centre. This trial is registered with Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT03298633, and is completed. FINDINGS: Between April 4, 2018, and Nov 15, 2021, 3879 couples were screened, of whom 2387 (61·5%) couples were randomly assigned (1184 [49·6%] to the ICSI group and 1203 [50·4%] to the conventional IVF group). After excluding couples who were ineligible, randomised twice, or withdrew consent, 1154 (97·5%) in the ICSI group and 1175 (97·7%) in the conventional IVF group were included in the primary analysis. Live birth after first embryo transfer occurred in 390 (33·8%) couples in the ICSI group and in 430 (36·6%) couples in the conventional IVF group (adjusted risk ratio [RR] 0·92 [95% CI 0·83-1·03]; p=0·16). Two (0·2%) neonatal deaths were reported in the ICSI group and one (0·1%) in the conventional IVF group. INTERPRETATION: In couples with infertility with non-severe male factor, ICSI did not improve live birth rate compared with conventional IVF. Given that ICSI is an invasive procedure associated with additional costs and potential increased risks to offspring health, routine use is not recommended in this population. FUNDING: National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key Research and Development Program, Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission, and Peking University Third Hospital.

Combination of gefitinib and methotrexate to treat tubal ectopic pregnancy (GEM3): a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Tubal ectopic pregnancies can cause substantial morbidity or even death. Current treatment is with methotrexate or surgery. Methotrexate treatment fails in approximately 30% of women who subsequently require rescue surgery. Gefitinib, an epidermal growth factor receptor inhibitor, might improve the effects of methotrexate. We assessed the efficacy of oral gefitinib with methotrexate, versus methotrexate alone, to treat tubal ectopic pregnancy. METHODS: We performed a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial across 50 UK hospitals. Participants diagnosed with tubal ectopic pregnancy were administered a single dose of intramuscular methotrexate (50 mg/m2) and randomised (1:1 ratio) to 7 days of additional oral gefitinib (250 mg daily) or placebo. The primary outcome, analysed by intention to treat, was surgical intervention to resolve the ectopic pregnancy. Secondary outcomes included time to resolution of ectopic pregnancy and serious adverse events. This trial is registered at the ISRCTN registry, ISCRTN 67795930. FINDINGS: Between Nov 2, 2016, and Oct 6, 2021, 328 participants were allocated to methotrexate and gefitinib (n=165) or methotrexate and placebo (n=163). Three participants in the placebo group withdrew. Surgical intervention occurred in 50 (30%) of 165 participants in the gefitinib group and in 47 (29%) of 160 participants in the placebo group (adjusted risk ratio 1·15, 95% CI 0·85 to 1·58; adjusted risk difference -0·01, 95% CI -0·10 to 0·09; p=0·37). Without surgical intervention, median time to resolution was 28·0 days in the gefitinib group and 28·0 days in the placebo group (subdistribution hazard ratio 1·03, 95% CI 0·75 to 1·40). Serious adverse events occurred in five (3%) of 165 participants in the gefitinib group and in six (4%) of 162 participants in the placebo group. Diarrhoea and rash were more common in the gefitinib group. INTERPRETATION: In women with a tubal ectopic pregnancy, adding oral gefitinib to parenteral methotrexate does not offer clinical benefit over methotrexate and increases minor adverse reactions. FUNDING: National Institute of Health Research.

Applying a simplified economic evaluation approach to evaluate infertility treatments in clinical practice.

IVF is the backbone of infertility treatment, but due to its costs, it is not affordable for everyone. The cost of IVF is further escalated by interventions added to the routine treatment, which are claimed to boost pregnancy rates, so-called add-ons. Consequently, it is critical to offset the increased costs of an intervention against a potentially higher benefit. Here, we propose using a simplified framework considering the cost of a standard IVF procedure to create one live-born baby as a benchmark for the cost-effectiveness of other fertility treatments, add-ons inclusive. This framework is a simplified approach to a formal economic evaluation, enabling a rapid assessment of cost effectiveness in clinical settings. For a 30-year-old woman, assuming a 44.6% cumulative live birth rate and a cost of $12 000 per complete cycle, the cost to create one live-born baby would be ∼$27 000 (i.e. willingness to pay). Under this concept, the decision whether to accept or reject a new treatment depends from an economic perspective on the incremental cost per additional live birth from the new treatment/add-on, with the $27 000 per live-born baby as a reference threshold. This threshold can vary with women's age, and other factors such as the economic perspective and risk of side effects can play a role. If a new add-on or treatment costs >$27 000 per live birth, it might be more rational to invest in a new IVF cycle rather than spending on the add-on. With the increasing number of novel technologies in IVF and the lack of a rapid approach to evaluate their cost-effectiveness, this simplified framework will help with a more objective assessment of the cost-effectiveness of infertility treatments, including add-ons.

Effect of small follicles on clinical pregnancy and multiple pregnancy rates in intrauterine insemination: a cohort study.

STUDY QUESTION: What is the effect of small follicles on clinical pregnancy and multiple pregnancy rates in women undergoing IUI with ovarian stimulation (IUI-OS)? SUMMARY ANSWER: The presence of ≥2 small follicles with a diameter of 10-12 or 12-14 mm was associated with an increased chance of clinical pregnancy and the presence of any 12-14 mm or larger follicles, but not smaller follicles, was statistically significantly associated with an increased risk for multiple pregnancy. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: IUI-OS is widely used as the first-line treatment for unexplained or mild male factor infertility. However, IUI is associated with the risk of multiple pregnancy. While the positive association between the number of follicles ≥14 mm and the chance of pregnancy and the risk of multiple pregnancy is known, the impact of smaller follicles is uncertain. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This was a retrospective cohort study that included women undergoing IUI cycles from January 2007 to May 2021 in one assisted reproduction center. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: We studied the impact of the number and size of follicles on trigger day on clinical pregnancy and multiple pregnancy rates. Generalized estimation equation regression models were used to compute unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios and 95% CI in all women and only women who achieved clinical pregnancy separately. The chance of clinical pregnancy and multiple pregnancy for different numbers of small follicles in cycles with one >18-mm follicle was calculated using marginal effects estimate. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: This cohort included 12 933 IUI cycles in 7504 women. The overall clinical pregnancy rate was 16.1% (2081/12 933), with a multiple pregnancy rate of 10.5% (218/2081). In the adjusted analysis, the chance of clinical pregnancy increased significantly with the increase in the number of follicles with the diameter of 14-16, 16-18, and 18-20 mm. As for 10-12 mm [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.22, 95% CI 1.02-1.46] and 12-14 mm (aOR 1.29, 95% CI 1.07-1.56) follicles, only groups with ≥2 follicles of those sizes showed significantly increased chance of clinical pregnancy. In cycles that led to pregnancy, follicles with the diameter of 12-14 mm were associated with an increased risk of multiple pregnancy (aOR 1.73, 95% CI 1.19-2.53 for one such follicle; aOR 2.27, 95% CI 1.44-3.56 for ≥2 such follicles), while 10- to 12-mm follicles were not significantly associated with multiple pregnancy (aOR 1.18, 95% CI 0.72-1.95 for ≥2 such follicles). The associations of multiple pregnancy were similar when including all cycles. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: This was a retrospective observational study from a single center. The records of follicle diameter in our center were of a 2-mm interval which limited our ability to analyze the size of follicle as a continuous variable. Also, the number of cycles with a high number of small follicles was still limited which impeded more detailed analysis on the ≥2 follicles subgroup. Similarly, the value of some parts of the marginal probability estimation for multiple pregnancy versus pregnancy according to size and number of follicles was also limited by the low sample size of certain combinations. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Follicles larger than 10 mm, especially those ≥12 mm, may need to be clearly recorded during transvaginal ultrasound surveillance and their potential effects on both pregnancy and multiple pregnancy can be discussed with couples undergoing IUI. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant numbers 82201912, 82371651, and 82071615) and Shanghai Sailing Program (21YF1423200). B.W.M. is supported by an NHMRC Investigator grant (GNT1176437). B.W.M. reports consultancy for ObsEva and Merck and travel support from Merck. B.W.M. has received research funding from Ferring and Merck. The authors declare no other competing interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Does growth hormone supplementation of in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection improve cumulative live birth rates in women with poor embryonic development in the previous cycle?

BACKGROUND: Growth hormone (GH) has been proposed as an adjunct in in vitro fertilization (IVF)/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) cycles, especially in women with poor ovarian response. However, it is unclear whether GH supplementation is effective in women with poor embryonic development in the previous IVF cycle. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of GH supplementation in IVF/ICSI cycles in women with poor embryonic development in the previous cycle. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study from a public fertility center in China, in which we performed propensity score-matching (PSM) for female age and AFC in a ratio of 1:1. We compared the cumulative live birth rate per started cycle, as well as a series of secondary outcomes. We included 3,043 women with poor embryonic development in the previous IVF/ICSI cycle, of which 1,326 had GH as adjuvant therapy and 1,717 had not. After PSM, there were 694 women in each group. RESULTS: After PSM, multivariate analyses showed the cumulative live birth rate to be significantly higher in the GH group than the control group [N = 694, 34.7% vs. N = 694, 27.5%, risk ratio (RR): 1.4 (95%CI: 1.1-1.8)]. Endometrial thickness, number of oocytes retrieved, number of embryos available, and number of good-quality embryos were significantly higher in the GH group compared to controls. Pregnancy outcomes in terms of birth weight, gestational age, fetal sex, preterm birth rate, and type of delivery were comparable. When we evaluated the impact of GH on different categories of female age, the observed benefit in the GH group did not appear to be significant. When we assessed the effect of GH in different AFC categories, the effect of GH was strongest in women with an AFC5-6 (32.2% versus 19.5%; RR 2.0; 95% CI 1.2-3.3). CONCLUSIONS: Women with poor embryonic quality in the previous IVF/ICSI cycles have higher rates of cumulative live birth with GH supplementation.

Placental, maternal, fetal, and technical origins of false-positive cell-free DNA screening results.

The introduction of noninvasive prenatal testing has resulted in substantial reductions to previously accepted false-positive rates of prenatal screening. Despite this, the possibility of false-positive results remains a challenging consideration in clinical practice, particularly considering the increasing uptake of genome-wide noninvasive prenatal testing, and the subsequent increased proportion of high-risk results attributable to various biological events besides fetal aneuploidy. Confined placental mosaicism, whereby chromosome anomalies exclusively affect the placenta, is perhaps the most widely accepted cause of false-positive noninvasive prenatal testing. There remains, however, a substantial degree of ambiguity in the literature pertaining to the clinical ramifications of confined placental mosaicism and its potential association with placental insufficiency, and consequentially adverse pregnancy outcomes including fetal growth restriction. Other causes of false-positive noninvasive prenatal testing include vanishing twin syndrome, in which the cell-free DNA from a demised aneuploidy-affected twin triggers a high-risk result, technical failures, and maternal origins of abnormal cell-free DNA such as uterine fibroids or unrecognized mosaicisms. Most concerningly, maternal malignancies are also a documented cause of false-positive screening results. In this review, we compile what is currently known about the various causes of false-positive noninvasive prenatal testing.

Vaginal micronised progesterone for the prevention of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Treatment with vaginal progesterone reduces the risk of miscarriage and preterm birth in selected high-risk women. The hypothesis that vaginal progesterone can reduce the risk of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) is unexplored. OBJECTIVES: To summarise the evidence on the effectiveness of vaginal progesterone to reduce the risk of HDP. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched Embase (OVID), MEDLINE (OVID), PubMed, CENTRAL and clinicaltrials.gov from inception until 20 June 2023. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included placebo-controlled randomised trials (RCTs) of vaginal progesterone for the prevention or treatment of any pregnancy complications. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We extracted absolute event numbers for HDP and pre-eclampsia in women receiving vaginal progesterone or placebo, and meta-analysed the data with a random effects model. We appraised the certainty of the evidence using GRADE methodology. MAIN RESULTS: The quantitative synthesis included 11 RCTs, of which three initiated vaginal progesterone in the first trimester, and eight in the second or third trimesters. Vaginal progesterone started in the first trimester of pregnancy lowered the risk of any HDP (risk ratio [RR] 0.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.53-0.93, 2 RCTs, n = 4431 women, I2 = 0%; moderate-certainty evidence) and pre-eclampsia (RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.41-0.92, 3 RCTs, n = 5267 women, I2 = 0%; moderate-certainty evidence) when compared with placebo. Vaginal progesterone started in the second or third trimesters was not associated with a reduction in HDP (RR 1.19, 95% CI 0.67-2.12, 3 RCTs, n = 1602 women, I2 = 9%; low-certainty evidence) or pre-eclampsia (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.71-1.31, 5 RCTs, n = 4274 women, I2 = 0%; low-certainty evidence). CONCLUSIONS: Our systematic review found first-trimester initiated vaginal micronised progesterone may reduce the risk of HDP and pre-eclampsia.

Attitudes, knowledge and practice regarding the anti-müllerian hormone test among general practitioners and reproductive specialists: A cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe clinicians' attitudes, knowledge and practice relating to the anti-müllerian hormone (AMH) test. DESIGN: Cross-sectional nationwide survey. SETTING: Australia. POPULATION OR SAMPLE: A total of 362 general practitioners (GPs), gynaecologists and reproductive specialists. METHODS: Clinicians were recruited through relevant professional organisations, with data collected from May 2021 to April 2022. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Clinicians' attitudes, knowledge and practice relating to the AMH test, measured using multiple choice, Likert scales and open-ended items. RESULTS: Fifteen percent of GPs (n = 27) and 40% of gynaecologists and other specialists (n = 73) order at least one AMH test per month. Specialists reported raising the idea of testing most of the time, whereas GPs reported that patient request was more common. Half of clinicians lacked confidence interpreting (n = 182, 51%) and explaining (n = 173, 48%) an AMH result to their patients. Five percent (n = 19) believed the test was moderately/very useful in predicting natural conception/birth and 22% (n = 82) believed the same for predicting premature menopause, despite evidence that the test cannot reliably predict either. Forty percent (n = 144) had previously ordered the test to help with reproductive planning and 21% (n = 75) to provide reassurance about fertility. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians reported use of AMH testing in clinical circumstances not supported by the evidence. With the proliferation of direct-to-consumer testing, efforts to support clinicians in the judicious use of testing and effectively navigating patient requests are needed.

Vaginal misoprostol versus vaginal dinoprostone for cervical ripening and induction of labour: An individual participant data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Induction of labour (IOL) is common practice and different methods carry different effectiveness and safety profiles. OBJECTIVES: To compare the effectiveness, and maternal and perinatal safety outcomes of IOL with vaginal misoprostol versus vaginal dinoprostone using individual participant data from randomised clinical trials. SEARCH STRATEGY: The following databases were searched from inception to March 2023: CINAHL Plus, ClinicalTrials.gov, Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group Trial Register, Ovid Embase, Ovid Emcare, Ovid MEDLINE, Scopus and the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP). SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), with viable singleton gestation, no language restrictions, and all published and unpublished data. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: An individual participant data meta-analysis was carried out. MAIN RESULTS: Ten of 52 eligible trials provided individual participant data, of which two were excluded after checking data integrity. The remaining eight trials compared low-dose vaginal misoprostol versus dinoprostone, including 4180 women undergoing IOL, which represents 32.8% of all participants in the published RCTs. Of these, 2077 were assigned to low-dose vaginal misoprostol and 2103 were assigned to vaginal dinoprostone. Compared with vaginal dinoprostone, low-dose vaginal misoprostol had a comparable rate of vaginal birth. Composite adverse perinatal outcomes did not differ between the groups. Compared with vaginal dinoprostone, composite adverse maternal outcomes were significantly lower with low-dose vaginal misoprostol (aOR 0.80, 95% CI 0.65-0.98, P = 0.03, I2 = 0%). CONCLUSIONS: Low-dose vaginal misoprostol and vaginal dinoprostone for IOL are comparable in terms of effectiveness and perinatal safety. However, low-dose vaginal misoprostol is likely to lead to a lower rate of composite adverse maternal outcomes than vaginal dinoprostone.

"Hypertension in Pregnancy Intervention Trial At Term" and "Disproportionate Intrauterine Growth Intervention Trial At Term" Studies.

In 2003, in the context of a national research funding program in which obstetric research was prioritized, several perinatal centers took the initiative to jointly submit a number of applications to the subsidy programs of Effectiveness Research and Prevention of ZonMw. This has led to the funding of the Obstetric Consortium with several projects, including the "Hypertension in Pregnancy Intervention Trial At Term" and the "Disproportionate Intrauterine Growth Intervention Trial At Term" studies. The studies showed that induction of labor for hypertension and growth restriction at term was the appropriate management. Subsequent implementation improved maternal and perinatal outcomes.

Modelling and comparing the use of IVF and ICSI in Australia.

PURPOSE: This study estimates the need of IVF/ICSI in Australia as compared to its actual uptake. METHODS: We created a model estimating for the annual demand for IVF/ICSI in a hypothetical infertile population, using demographic data from medical literature and Australian government databases. For each category of infertility (tubal, severe male, endometriosis, anovulation and unexplained), our estimated need for IVF/ICSI was compared to the actual IVF/ICSI uptake (ANZARD 2019). The model consisted of three categories depending on couples' cause of infertility, i.e. couples with absolute indications for IVF/ICSI (couples with severe male factor infertility and tubal obstruction); couples with anovulatory infertility (couples with ovulation disorders) and couples with ovulatory infertility (couples suffering from unexplained infertility and endometriosis). The model was applied to each of these categories to determine the number of couples that would require IVF/ICSI treatment after failing to conceive naturally or after following alternative treatment plans. The main outcomes of this study were the estimate of IVF/ICSI cycles and the difference between the estimate and the reported number of IVF/ICSI cycles (2019 ANZARD report). RESULTS: We estimated that approximately 35,300 couples required IVF/ICSI treatment in Australia in 2019, while in 2019 according to ANZARD, 46,000 couples underwent IVF/ICSI. A higher uptake of IVF/ICSI cycles than expected was specifically reported in couples with unexplained infertility, ovulation disorders and endometriosis, while for tubal and severe male infertility uptake seemed adequate. CONCLUSION: In Australia, there seems to be overservicing of IVF/ICSI, specifically for unexplained, ovulatory and endometriosis-related infertility.

Can serum progesterone concentration direct a fresh or freeze-all transfer strategy in the first in vitro fertilisation cycle?

PURPOSE: To examine the interaction between serum progesterone concentration on the trigger day and choice of freeze-all and fresh transfer strategies on live birth in an unselected population as well as in patients over 35 years old. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 26,661 patients commencing their first IVF cycle in a large fertility centre between 2015 and 2019, including 4687 patients over 35 years old. We performed a multivariable fractional polynomial interaction analysis within a logistic regression model to investigate the interaction between serum progesterone concentration and the choice of freeze-all or fresh transfer strategy following the first transfer. RESULTS: 15,539 patients underwent a fresh embryo transfer and 11,122 underwent a freeze-all strategy in their first IVF cycle. The freeze-all group had a higher live birth rate compared to the fresh group (43.9% vs 40.3%). After adjusting for confounding factors, there was a positive interaction between serum progesterone concentrations and the choice of a freeze-all versus fresh embryo transfer on live birth (p for interaction 0.0001), with a larger magnitude of effect when progesterone concentration was higher. Such an interaction was also observed in patients over 35 years old (p for interaction 0.01), but the treatment effect curve over progesterone concentrations was almost flat. CONCLUSIONS: In an unselected population, frozen transfer is associated with greater chances of live birth, especially in patients with higher serum progesterone concentration. In patients over 35 years old, the benefit of a freeze-all policy appears small across all serum progesterone concentrations.

Characteristics of preterm births during COVID-19 mitigation measures.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, mitigation measures were associated with a reduction in preterm birth rates; while not clearly proven, this observation has sparked significant interest. AIM: To understand the cause of this reduction by exploring the characteristics of preterm birth cohorts. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study where we compared women who delivered preterm in three Melbourne maternity hospitals and conceived between November 2019 and February 2020 (mitigation measures-exposed cohort) to women who delivered preterm and conceived between November 2018 and February 2019 (non-exposed cohort). We compared maternal characteristics, pregnancy complications, antenatal interventions, intrapartum care, and indications for delivery. RESULTS: In the exposed cohort, 252/3129 women delivered preterm (8.1%), vs 298/3154 (9.4%) in the non-exposed cohort (odds ratio (OR) 0.84, 95% CI 0.70-1.00, P = 0.051). The baseline characteristic of two cohorts were comparable. Rates of spontaneous preterm labour (sPTL) without preterm pre-labour rupture of membranes (PPROM) were lower in the exposed cohort (13.1% vs 24.2%, OR 0.47, P = 0.001) while PPROM occurred more often (48.0% vs 35.6%, OR 1.67, P = 0.003). With a non-statistically significant prolongation of pregnancy in the cohort exposed to mitigation measures for both sPTL without PPROM (35.4 vs 34.9 weeks, P = 0.703) and PPROM (35.6 vs 34.9 weeks, P = 0.184). The rate of spontaneous labour after PPROM was higher in the exposed cohort compared to the non-exposed cohort (40.1% vs 24.1%, OR 2.09, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The reduction in preterm delivery during mitigation measures may have been driven by a reduction in spontaneous labour without PPROM, which seemed to result in more PPROM later in pregnancy.

Balloon catheters versus vaginal prostaglandins for labour induction (CPI Collaborative): an individual participant data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Induction of labour is one of the most common obstetric interventions globally. Balloon catheters and vaginal prostaglandins are widely used to ripen the cervix in labour induction. We aimed to compare the effectiveness and safety profiles of these two induction methods. METHODS: We did an individual participant data meta-analysis comparing balloon catheters and vaginal prostaglandins for cervical ripening before labour induction. We systematically identified published and unpublished randomised controlled trials that completed data collection between March 19, 2019, and May 1, 2021, by searching the Cochrane Library, ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and PubMed. Further trials done before March 19, 2019, were identified through a recent Cochrane review. Data relating to the combined use of the two methods were not included, only data from women with a viable, singleton pregnancy were analysed, and no exclusion was made based on parity or membrane status. We contacted authors of individuals trials and participant-level data were harmonised and recoded according to predefined definitions of variables. Risk of bias was assessed with the ROB2 tool. The primary outcomes were caesarean delivery, indication for caesarean delivery, a composite adverse perinatal outcome, and a composite adverse maternal outcome. We followed the intention-to-treat principle for the main analysis. The primary meta-analysis used two-stage random-effects models and the sensitivity analysis used one-stage mixed models. All models were adjusted for maternal age and parity. This meta-analysis is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020179924). FINDINGS: Individual participant data were available from 12 studies with a total of 5460 participants. Balloon catheters, compared with vaginal prostaglandins, did not lead to a significantly different rate of caesarean delivery (12 trials, 5414 women; crude incidence 27·0%; adjusted OR [aOR] 1·09, 95% CI 0·95-1·24; I2=0%), caesarean delivery for failure to progress (11 trials, 4601 women; aOR 1·20, 95% CI 0·91-1·58; I2=39%), or caesarean delivery for fetal distress (10 trials, 4441 women; aOR 0·86, 95% CI 0·71-1·04; I2=0%). The composite adverse perinatal outcome was lower in women who were allocated to balloon catheters than in those allocated to vaginal prostaglandins (ten trials, 4452 neonates, crude incidence 13·6%; aOR 0·80, 95% CI 0·70-0·92; I2=0%). There was no significant difference in the composite adverse maternal outcome (ten trials, 4326 women, crude incidence 22·7%; aOR 1·02, 95% CI 0·89-1·18; I2=0%). INTERPRETATION: In induction of labour, balloon catheters and vaginal prostaglandins have comparable caesarean delivery rates and maternal safety profiles, but balloon catheters lead to fewer adverse perinatal events. FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council and Monash Health Emerging Researcher Fellowship.

Statistical significance and publication reporting bias in abstracts of reproductive medicine studies.

STUDY QUESTION: What were the frequency and temporal trends of reporting P-values and effect measures in the abstracts of reproductive medicine studies in 1990-2022, how were reported P-values distributed, and what proportion of articles that present with statistical inference reported statistically significant results, i.e. 'positive' results? SUMMARY ANSWER: Around one in six abstracts reported P-values alone without effect measures, while the prevalence of effect measures, whether reported alone or accompanied by P-values, has been increasing, especially in meta-analyses and randomized controlled trials (RCTs); the reported P-values were frequently observed around certain cut-off values, notably at 0.001, 0.01, or 0.05, and among abstracts present with statistical inference (i.e. P-value, CIs, or significant terms), a large majority (77%) reported at least one statistically significant finding. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Publishing or reporting only results that show a 'positive' finding causes bias in evaluating interventions and risk factors and may incur adverse health outcomes for patients.Despite efforts to minimize publication reporting bias in medical research, it remains unclear whether the magnitude and patterns of the bias have changed over time. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We studied abstracts of reproductive medicine studies from 1990 to 2022. The reproductive medicine studies were published in 23 first-quartile journals under the category of Obstetrics and Gynaecology and Reproductive Biology in Journal Citation Reports and 5 high-impact general medical journals (The Journal of the American Medical Association, The Lancet, The BMJ, The New England Journal of Medicine, and PLoS Medicine). Articles without abstracts, animal studies, and non-research articles, such as case reports or guidelines, were excluded. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Automated text-mining was used to extract three types of statistical significance reporting, including P-values, CIs, and text description. Meanwhile, abstracts were text-mined for the presence of effect size metrics and Bayes factors. Five hundred abstracts were randomly selected and manually checked for the accuracy of automatic text extraction. The extracted statistical significance information was then analysed for temporal trends and distribution in general as well as in subgroups of study designs and journals. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: A total of 24 907 eligible reproductive medicine articles were identified from 170 739 screened articles published in 28 journals. The proportion of abstracts not reporting any statistical significance inference halved from 81% (95% CI, 76-84%) in 1990 to 40% (95% CI, 38-44%) in 2021, while reporting P-values alone remained relatively stable, at 15% (95% CI, 12-18%) in 1990 and 19% (95% CI, 16-22%) in 2021. By contrast, the proportion of abstracts reporting effect measures alone increased considerably from 4.1% (95% CI, 2.6-6.3%) in 1990 to 26% (95% CI, 23-29%) in 2021. Similarly, the proportion of abstracts reporting effect measures together with P-values showed substantial growth from 0.8% (95% CI, 0.3-2.2%) to 14% (95% CI, 12-17%) during the same timeframe. Of 30 182 statistical significance inferences, 56% (n = 17 077) conveyed statistical inferences via P-values alone, 30% (n = 8945) via text description alone such as significant or non-significant, 9.3% (n = 2820) via CIs alone, and 4.7% (n = 1340) via both CI and P-values. The reported P-values (n = 18 417), including both a continuum of P-values and dichotomized P-values, were frequently observed around common cut-off values such as 0.001 (20%), 0.05 (16%), and 0.01 (10%). Of the 13 200 reproductive medicine abstracts containing at least one statistical inference, 77% of abstracts made at least one statistically significant statement. Among articles that reported statistical inference, a decline in the proportion of making at least one statistically significant inference was only seen in RCTs, dropping from 71% (95% CI, 48-88%) in 1990 to 59% (95% CI, 42-73%) in 2021, whereas the proportion in the rest of study types remained almost constant over the years. Of abstracts that reported P-value, 87% (95% CI, 86-88%) reported at least one statistically significant P-value; it was 92% (95% CI, 82-97%) in 1990 and reached its peak at 97% (95% CI, 93-99%) in 2001 before declining to 81% (95% CI, 76-85%) in 2021. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: First, our analysis focused solely on reporting patterns in abstracts but not full-text papers; however, in principle, abstracts should include condensed impartial information and avoid selective reporting. Second, while we attempted to identify all types of statistical significance reporting, our text mining was not flawless. However, the manual assessment showed that inaccuracies were not frequent. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: There is a welcome trend that effect measures are increasingly reported in the abstracts of reproductive medicine studies, specifically in RCTs and meta-analyses. Publication reporting bias remains a major concern. Inflated estimates of interventions and risk factors could harm decisions built upon biased evidence, including clinical recommendations and planning of future research. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): No funding was received for this study. B.W.M. is supported by an NHMRC Investigator grant (GNT1176437); B.W.M. reports research grants and travel support from Merck and consultancy from Merch and ObsEva. W.L. is supported by an NHMRC Investigator Grant (GNT2016729). Q.F. reports receiving a PhD scholarship from Merck. The other author has no conflict of interest to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Have we overlooked the role of mifepristone for the medical management of tubal ectopic pregnancy?

Ectopic pregnancy is a risk of both spontaneous and assisted reproduction pregnancies. The majority of ectopic pregnancies abnormally implant within a fallopian tube (extrauterine pregnancies). In haemodynamically stable women, medical or expectant treatment can be offered. Currently accepted medical treatment is using a drug called methotrexate. However, methotrexate has potential adverse effects, and a significant proportion of women will still require emergency surgery (up to 30%) to remove the ectopic pregnancy. Mifepristone (RU-486) has anti-progesterone effects and has a role in managing intrauterine pregnancy loss and termination of pregnancy. On reviewing the literature and given progesterone's pivotal role in sustaining pregnancy, we propose that we may have overlooked the role of mifepristone in the medical management of tubal ectopic pregnancy in haemodynamically stable women.

Association between ambient temperature exposure and pregnancy outcomes in patients undergoing in vitro fertilization in Shanghai, China: a retrospective cohort study.

STUDY QUESTION: Does ambient temperature exposure affect outcomes including clinical pregnancy and live birth in women undergoing IVF? SUMMARY ANSWER: Both extreme cold and hot ambient temperatures were significantly associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes of IVF cycles. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Heat exposure has been linked to adverse pregnancy outcomes worldwide. However, the effect of ambient temperature on infertile women undergoing IVF treatment is unclear. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A retrospective cohort study was conducted from a database of 3452 infertile women who underwent their first fresh or frozen embryo transfer in the Shanghai First Maternity and Infant Hospital from April 2016 to December 2020. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Daily mean ambient temperature exposure for each patient was obtained based on their residential address. Temperature-stratified multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate associations between temperature exposure and pregnancy outcomes after controlling for confounders. Vulnerable sub-groups were identified using forest plots. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: The clinical pregnancy rate and live birth rate were 45.7% and 37.1%, respectively. Regarding clinical pregnancy, a higher temperature during cold weather was significantly associated with a higher pregnancy rate in the period about 11 weeks before ovarian stimulation (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.102, 95% CI: 1.012-1.201). Regarding live birth, an increased temperature during cold weather was significantly related to a higher live birth rate in the period after confirmation of clinical pregnancy or biochemical pregnancy, with the aORs of 6.299 (95% CI: 3.949-10.047) or 10.486 (95% CI: 5.609-19.620), respectively. However, a higher temperature during hot weather was negatively associated with the live birth rate in the periods after confirmation of clinical pregnancy or biochemical pregnancy, with the aORs at 0.186 (95% CI: 0.121-0.285) or 0.302 (95% CI: 0.224-0.406), respectively. Moreover, the decline in live birth rates during cold and hot weather was accompanied by increased rates of early miscarriage (P < 0.05). Stratified analyses identified susceptibility characteristics among the participants. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Climate monitoring data were used to represent individual temperature exposure levels according to the patient's residential address in the study. We were not able to obtain information of personal outdoor activity and use of indoor air conditioners in this retrospective study, which may affect actual temperature exposure. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This study highlights that the ambient temperature exposure should be taken into account during IVF treatment and afterwards. There is a need to be alert to extremes in cold and hot ambient temperatures, especially during the period of follicle development and pregnancy. With this knowledge, clinicians can scientifically determine the timing of IVF treatment and reinforce patients' awareness of self-protection to minimize adverse pregnancy outcomes associated with extreme temperatures. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This work was supported by a grant from the Clinical Research Plan of Shanghai Hospital Development Center [SHDC2020CR4080], a grant from the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality [19411960500], and two grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China [81871213, 81671468]. B.W.M. is supported by a NHMRC Investigator grant (GNT1176437). B.W.M. reports consultancy for ObsEva, and research grants from Merck KGaA, Ferring and Guerbet. The other authors have no conflict of interest to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Community awareness and use of anti-Müllerian hormone testing in Australia: a population survey of women.

STUDY QUESTION: What is the anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) test usage, awareness, and perceived reasons for testing in a representative community sample of women in Australia? SUMMARY ANSWER: : Among women aged 18-55 years, 13% had heard about AMH testing and 7% had had an AMH test, with the top three reasons for testing including due to infertility investigations (51%), considering pregnancy and wanting to understand their chances (19%) or to find out if a medical condition had affected fertility (11%). WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The growing availability of direct-to-consumer AMH testing has raised concerns about overuse, however as most AMH tests are paid for privately by consumers, data on test usage is not publicly available. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: National cross-sectional survey of 1773 women, conducted in January 2022. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Females aged 18-55 years were recruited from the representative 'Life in Australia' probability-based population panel and completed the survey online or by telephone. Main outcome measures included if and how participants had heard about AMH testing, whether they had ever had an AMH test, main reason for testing and test access. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Of the 2423 women who were invited 1773 responded (73% response rate). Of these, 229 (13%) had heard about AMH testing and 124 (7%) had had an AMH test. Testing rates were highest among those currently aged 35-39 years (14%) and associated with educational attainment. Almost all accessed the test through their general practitioner or fertility specialist. Reasons for testing were: part of an infertility investigation (51%), considering pregnancy and wanting to understand chances of conceiving (19%), finding out if a medical condition had affected fertility (11%), curiosity (9%), considering egg freezing (5%), and considering delaying pregnancy (2%). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Although the sample was large and mostly representative, it was over-represented by people holding a university degree and under-represented by people aged 18-24, however, we used weighted data where possible to account for this. All data were self-reported so there is a risk of recall bias. The number of survey items was also restricted, so the type of counselling women received prior to testing, reasons for declining an AMH test or test timing were not measured. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Whilst most women reported having an AMH test for appropriate reasons, about one third had it for reasons not supported by evidence. Public and clinician education about the lack of utility of AMH testing for women not undergoing infertility treatment is needed. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This project was supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Centre for Research Excellence grant (1104136) and Program grant (1113532). T.C. is supported by an NHMRC Emerging Leader Research Fellowship (2009419). B.W.M. reports research funding, consultancy and travel support from Merck. D.L. is the Medical Director of City Fertility NSW and reports consultancy for Organon, Ferring, Besins and Merck. The authors have no other competing interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Early (Days 1-4) post-treatment serum hCG level changes predict single-dose methotrexate treatment success in tubal ectopic pregnancy.

STUDY QUESTION: What is the capacity of the change between Day 1 and Day 4 post-treatment serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) levels for predicting single-dose methotrexate treatment success in tubal ectopic pregnancy? SUMMARY ANSWER: Any fall in Days 1-4 serum hCG signified an 85% (95% CI 76.8-90.6) likelihood of treatment success for women with tubal ectopic pregnancy (initial hCG of ≥1000 and ≤5000 IU/l) managed with single-dose methotrexate. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: For those with tubal ectopic pregnancy managed by single-dose methotrexate, current guidelines advocate intervention if Days 4-7 hCG fails to fall by >15%. The trajectory of hCG over Days 1-4 has been proposed as an early indicator that predicts treatment success, allowing early reassurance for women. However, almost all prior studies of Days 1-4 hCG changes have been retrospective. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This was a prospective cohort study of women with tubal ectopic pregnancy (pre-treatment hCG of ≥1000 and ≤5000 IU/l) managed with single-dose methotrexate. The data were derived from a UK multicentre randomized controlled trial of methotrexate and gefitinib versus methotrexate and placebo for treatment of tubal ectopic pregnancy (GEM3). For this analysis, we include data from both treatment arms. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Participants were categorized according to single-dose methotrexate treatment success or failure. Treatment success for this analysis was defined as complete and uneventful resolution of tubal ectopic pregnancy to serum hCG <30 IU/l following single-dose methotrexate treatment without additional treatment. Patient characteristics of the treatment success and failure groups were compared. Changes in Days 1-4, 1-7, and 4-7 serum hCG were evaluated as predictors of treatment success through receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Test performance characteristics were calculated for percentage change ranges and thresholds including optimal classification thresholds. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: A total of 322 women with tubal ectopic pregnancy were treated with single-dose methotrexate. The overall single-dose methotrexate treatment success rate was 59% (n = 189/322). For any fall in serum hCG on Days 1-4, likelihood ratios were >3, while for any fall of serum hCG >20% on Days 1-7, likelihood ratios reached 5. Any rise of serum hCG on Days 1-7 and 4-7 strongly reduced the chance of success. Any fall in Days 1-4 hCG predicted single-dose methotrexate treatment success with a sensitivity of 58% and specificity 84%, resulting in positive and negative predictive values of 85% and 57%, respectively. Any rise in Days 1-4 serum hCG <18% was identified as an optimal test threshold that predicted treatment success with 79% sensitivity and 74% specificity, resulting in 82% positive predictive value and 69% negative predictive value. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Our findings may be limited by intervention bias resulting from existing guidelines which influences evaluation of hCG changes reliant on Day 7 serum hCG levels. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Examining a large prospective cohort, we show the value of Days 1-4 serum hCG changes in predicting single-dose methotrexate treatment success in tubal ectopic pregnancy. We recommend that clinicians provide early reassurance to women who have a fall or only a modest (<18%) rise in Days 1-4 serum hCG levels, that their treatment will likely be effective. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This project was supported by funding from the Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation programme, a Medical Research Council and National Institute for Health Research partnership (grant reference number 14/150/03). A.W.H. has received honoraria for consultancy for Ferring, Roche, Nordic Pharma and AbbVie. W.C.D. has received honoraria from Merck and Guerbet and research funding from Galvani Biosciences. L.H.R.W. has received research funding from Roche Diagnostics. B.W.M. is supported by a NHMRC Investigator grant (GNT1176437). B.W.M. also reports consultancy for ObsEva and Merck and travel support from Merck. The other authors declare no competing interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: This study is a secondary analysis of the GEM3 trial (ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN67795930).