Re-assessing thermal response of schistosomiasis transmission risk: evidence for a higher thermal optimum than previously predicted.

The geographical range of schistosomiasis is affected by the ecology of schistosome parasites and their obligate host snails, including their response to temperature. Previous models predicted schistosomiasis' thermal optimum at 21.7 °C, which is not compatible with the temperature in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) regions where schistosomiasis is hyperendemic. We performed an extensive literature search for empirical data on the effect of temperature on physiological and epidemiological parameters regulating the free-living stages of S. mansoni and S. haematobium and their obligate host snails, i.e., Biomphalaria spp. and Bulinus spp., respectively. We derived nonlinear thermal responses fitted on these data to parameterize a mechanistic, process-based model of schistosomiasis. We then re-cast the basic reproduction number and the prevalence of schistosome infection as functions of temperature. We found that the thermal optima for transmission of S. mansoni and S. haematobium range between 23.1-27.3 °C and 23.6-27.9 °C (95 % CI) respectively. We also found that the thermal optimum shifts toward higher temperatures as the human water contact rate increases with temperature. Our findings align with an extensive dataset of schistosomiasis prevalence in SSA. The refined nonlinear thermal-response model developed here suggests a more suitable current climate and a greater risk of increased transmission with future warming for more than half of the schistosomiasis suitable regions with mean annual temperature below the thermal optimum.

Re-assessing thermal response of schistosomiasis transmission risk: Evidence for a higher thermal optimum than previously predicted.

The geographical range of schistosomiasis is affected by the ecology of schistosome parasites and their obligate host snails, including their response to temperature. Previous models predicted schistosomiasis' thermal optimum at 21.7°C, which is not compatible with the temperature in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) regions where schistosomiasis is hyperendemic. We performed an extensive literature search for empirical data on the effect of temperature on physiological and epidemiological parameters regulating the free-living stages of S. mansoni and S. haematobium and their obligate host snails, i.e., Biomphalaria spp. and Bulinus spp., respectively. We derived nonlinear thermal responses fitted on these data to parameterize a mechanistic, process-based model of schistosomiasis. We then re-cast the basic reproduction number and the prevalence of schistosome infection as functions of temperature. We found that the thermal optima for transmission of S. mansoni and S. haematobium range between 23.1-27.3°C and 23.6-27.9°C (95% CI) respectively. We also found that the thermal optimum shifts toward higher temperatures as the human water contact rate increases with temperature. Our findings align with an extensive dataset of schistosomiasis prevalence in SSA. The refined nonlinear thermal-response model developed here suggests a more suitable current climate and a greater risk of increased transmission with future warming for more than half of the schistosomiasis suitable regions with mean annual temperature below the thermal optimum.

Trajetorias: a dataset of environmental, epidemiological, and economic indicators for the Brazilian Amazon.

The Trajetorias dataset is a harmonized set of environmental, epidemiological, and poverty indicators for all municipalities of the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA). This dataset is the result of a scientific synthesis research initiative conducted by scientists from several natural and social sciences fields, consolidating multidisciplinary indicators into a coherent dataset for integrated and interdisciplinary studies of the Brazilian Amazon. The dataset allows the investigation of the association between the Amazonian agrarian systems and their impacts on environmental and epidemiological changes, furthermore enhancing the possibilities for understanding, in a more integrated and consistent way, the scenarios that affect the Amazonian biome and its inhabitants.

A spatial approach for the epidemiology of antibiotic use and resistance in community-based studies: the emergence of urban clusters of Escherichia coli quinolone resistance in Sao Paulo, Brasil.

BACKGROUND: Population antimicrobial use may influence resistance emergence. Resistance is an ecological phenomenon due to potential transmissibility. We investigated spatial and temporal patterns of ciprofloxacin (CIP) population consumption related to E. coli resistance emergence and dissemination in a major Brazilian city. A total of 4,372 urinary tract infection E. coli cases, with 723 CIP resistant, were identified in 2002 from two outpatient centres. Cases were address geocoded in a digital map. Raw CIP consumption data was transformed into usage density in DDDs by CIP selling points influence zones determination. A stochastic model coupled with a Geographical Information System was applied for relating resistance and usage density and for detecting city areas of high/low resistance risk. RESULTS: E. coli CIP resistant cluster emergence was detected and significantly related to usage density at a level of 5 to 9 CIP DDDs. There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. CONCLUSIONS: There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. The usage density of 5-9 CIP DDDs per 1,000 inhabitants within the same influence zone was the resistance triggering level. This level led to E. coli resistance clustering, proving that individual resistance emergence and dissemination was affected by antimicrobial population consumption.

Epidemiology, Biodiversity, and Technological Trajectories in the Brazilian Amazon: From Malaria to COVID-19.

The Amazon biome is under severe threat due to increasing deforestation rates and loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services while sustaining a high burden of neglected tropical diseases. Approximately two thirds of this biome are located within Brazilian territory. There, socio-economic and environmental landscape transformations are linked to the regional agrarian economy dynamics, which has developed into six techno-productive trajectories (TTs). These TTs are the product of the historical interaction between Peasant and Farmer and Rancher practices, technologies and rationalities. This article investigates the distribution of the dominant Brazilian Amazon TTs and their association with environmental degradation and vulnerability to neglected tropical diseases. The goal is to provide a framework for the joint debate of the local economic, environmental and health dimensions. We calculated the dominant TT for each municipality in 2017. Peasant trajectories (TT1, TT2, and TT3) are dominant in ca. fifty percent of the Amazon territory, mostly concentrated in areas covered by continuous forest where malaria is an important morbidity and mortality cause. Cattle raising trajectories are associated with higher deforestation rates. Meanwhile, Farmer and Rancher economies are becoming dominant trajectories, comprising large scale cattle and grain production. These trajectories are associated with rapid biodiversity loss and a high prevalence of neglected tropical diseases, such as leishmaniasis, Aedes-borne diseases and Chagas disease. Overall, these results defy simplistic views that the dominant development trajectory for the Amazon will optimize economic, health and environmental indicators. This approach lays the groundwork for a more integrated narrative consistent with the economic history of the Brazilian Amazon.

An entomological surveillance system based on open spatial information for participative dengue control.

Aedes aegypti is a very efficient disseminator of human pathogens. This condition is the result of evolutionary adaptations to frequent haematophagy, as well as to the colonization of countless types of habitats associated with environmental and cultural factors that favor the proliferation of this mosquito in urban ecosystems. Studies using sensitive methods of monitoring demonstrate that the methods of surveillance used in the Brazilian program do not show the high degrees of the infestation of cities by this vector. To increase the capacity of the health sector, new tools are needed to the practice of surveillance, which incorporate aspects of the vector, place and human population. We describe here the SMCP-Aedes - Monitoring System and Population Control of Aedes aegypti, aiming to provide an entomological surveillance framework as a basis for epidemiological surveillance of dengue. The SMCP-Aedes is uphold in the space technology information, supported by the intensive use of the web and free software to collect, store, analyze and disseminate information on the spatial-temporal distribution of the estimated density for the population of Aedes, based on data systematically collected with the use of ovitraps. Planned control interventions, intensified where and when indicated by the entomological surveillance, are agreed with the communities, relying on the permanent social mobilization.

Spatial exploration of Streptococcus pneumoniae clonal clustering in São Paulo, Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the spatial distribution of Streptococcus pneumoniae and its clonal patterns collected between 2002 and 2006 in São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: As part of an observational study in São Paulo city, Brazil, S. pneumoniae isolates routinely cultured from blood, respiratory specimens, or cerebrospinal and other profound fluids were selected. Additionally, only isolates with either penicillin (PEN) intermediate (I) or resistant (R) status on routine antibiogram were included, in order to obtain a higher probability of clonal isolates. A single I/R S. pneumoniae isolate per patient was included and submitted to genotypic determination by pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) were determined for the isolates by Etest® to PEN and other antimicrobials. Each isolate was geocoded in a digital map. The Kernel function and ratio methods between total isolates vs. clones were used in order to explore possible cluster formations. RESULTS: Seventy-eight (78) S. pneumoniae community isolates from two major outpatient centers in São Paulo, Brazil, were selected from the databank according to their penicillin susceptibility profile, i.e. R or I to penicillin assessed by oxacillin disc diffusion. Of these, 69 were submitted to PFGE, 65 to MIC determination, and 48 to spatial analytical procedures. Preliminary spatial analysis method showed two possible cluster formation located in southwest and southeast regions of the city. CONCLUSION: Further analyses are required for precisely determining the existence of S. pneumoniae clusters and their related risk factors. Apparently there is a specific transmission pattern of S. pneumoniae clones within certain regions and populations. GIS and spatial methods can be applied to better understand epidemiological patterns and to identify target areas for public health interventions.

Spatial exploration of Streptococcus pneumoniae clonal clustering in São Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVES: To examine the spatial distribution of Streptococcus pneumoniae and its clonal patterns collected between 2002 and 2006 in São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: As part of an observational study in São Paulo city, Brazil, S. pneumoniae isolates routinely cultured from blood, respiratory specimens, or cerebrospinal and other profound fluids were selected. Additionally, only isolates with either penicillin (PEN) intermediate (I) or resistant (R) status on routine antibiogram were included, in order to obtain a higher probability of clonal isolates. A single I/R S. pneumoniae isolate per patient was included and submitted to genotypic determination by pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) were determined for the isolates by Etest® to PEN and other antimicrobials. Each isolate was geocoded in a digital map. The Kernel function and ratio methods between total isolates vs. clones were used in order to explore possible cluster formations. RESULTS: Seventy-eight (78) S. pneumoniae community isolates from two major outpatient centers in São Paulo, Brazil, were selected from the databank according to their penicillin susceptibility profile, i.e. R or I to penicillin assessed by oxacillin disc diffusion. Of these, 69 were submitted to PFGE, 65 to MIC determination, and 48 to spatial analytical procedures. Preliminary spatial analysis method showed two possible cluster formation located in southwest and southeast regions of the city. CONCLUSION: Further analyses are required for precisely determining the existence of S. pneumoniae clusters and their related risk factors. Apparently there is a specific transmission pattern of S. pneumoniae clones within certain regions and populations. GIS and spatial methods can be applied to better understand epidemiological patterns and to identify target areas for public health interventions.

An entomological surveillance system based on open spatial information for participative dengue control

Aedes aegypti is a very efficient disseminator of human pathogens. This condition is the result of evolutionary adaptations to frequent haematophagy, as well as to the colonization of countless types of habitats associated with environmental and cultural factors that favor the proliferation of this mosquito in urban ecosystems. Studies using sensitive methods of monitoring demonstrate that the methods of surveillance used in the Brazilian program do not show the high degrees of the infestation of cities by this vector. To increase the capacity of the health sector, new tools are needed to the practice of surveillance, which incorporate aspects of the vector, place and human population. We describe here the SMCP-Aedes - Monitoring System and Population Control of Aedes aegypti, aiming to provide an entomological surveillance framework as a basis for epidemiological surveillance of dengue. The SMCP-Aedes is uphold in the space technology information, supported by the intensive use of the web and free software to collect, store, analyze and disseminate information on the spatial-temporal distribution of the estimated density for the population of Aedes, based on data systematically collected with the use of ovitraps. Planned control interventions, intensified where and when indicated by the entomological surveillance, are agreed with the communities, relying on the permanent social mobilization.

Associadas a fatores bióticos, climáticos e culturais que favorecem a proliferação do Aedes aegypti em ecossistemas urbanos, adaptações evolutivas à hematofagia freqüente e quase exclusiva em humanos e à colonização de tipos infinitos de habitats, fazem deste mosquito um disseminador extremamente eficiente de patógenos ao homem. Estudos utilizando métodos sensíveis de monitoramento demonstram que os métodos de vigilância usados no programa brasileiro não revelam as elevadas intensidades da infestação das cidades por este vetor. Para ampliar a capacidade do setor de saúde novos instrumentos são necessários à prática da vigilância, incorporando aspectos do vetor, do lugar e das pessoas do lugar. Apresentamos aqui o SMCP-Aedes - Sistema de Monitoramento e Controle Populacional do Ae. aegypti, cuja meta é a instrumentalização da vigilância entomológica como base para a vigilância epidemiológica da dengue. Para isso ele se apóia em tecnologias da informação espacial baseadas no uso intensivo da web e de software livre para coletar, armazenar, analisar e disseminar informações relativas à distribuição espaço-temporal da densidade estimada para a população do Aedes, com base em amostras obtidas continuamente com ovitrampas. Intervenções de controle planejadas e intensificadas onde e quando indicado pela vigilância entomológica, são pactuadas com os habitantes, apoiando-se na mobilização social permanente.

An entomological surveillance system based on open spatial information for participative dengue control

Associadas a fatores bióticos, climáticos e culturais que favorecem a proliferação do Aedes aegypti em ecossistemas urbanos, adaptações evolutivas à hematofagia freqüente e quase exclusiva em humanos e à colonização de tipos infinitos de habitats, fazem deste mosquito um disseminador extremamente eficiente de patógenos ao homem. Estudos utilizando métodos sensíveis de monitoramento demonstram que os métodos de vigilância usados no programa brasileiro não revelam as elevadas intensidades da infestação das cidades por este vetor. Para ampliar a capacidade do setor de saúde novos instrumentos são necessários à prática da vigilância, incorporando aspectos do vetor, do lugar e das pessoas do lugar. Apresentamos aqui o SMCP-Aedes - Sistema de Monitoramento e Controle Populacional do Ae. aegypti, cuja meta é a instrumentalização da vigilância entomológica como base para a vigilância epidemiológica da dengue. Para isso ele se apóia em tecnologias da informação espacial baseadas no uso intensivo da web e de software livre para coletar, armazenar, analisar e disseminar informações relativas à distribuição espaço-temporal da densidade estimada para a população do Aedes, com base em amostras obtidas continuamente com ovitrampas. Intervenções de controle planejadas e intensificadas onde e quando indicado pela vigilância entomológica, são pactuadas com os habitantes, apoiando-se na mobilização social permanente.

Áreas propícias para o ataque de morcegos hematófagos Desmodus rotundus em bovinos na região de São João da Boa Vista, Estado de São Paulo / Areas prone for vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus) attack on cattle in the São João da Boa Vista region, State of São Paulo

Baseada em estudos anteriores, a Coordenadoria de Defesa Agropecuária da Secretaria da Agricultura e Abastecimento do Estado de São Paulo (CDA) vinha realizando nas regiões administrativas onde é feita a vigilância da raiva em herbívoros o controle de populações de Desmodus rotundus em áreas próximas aos principais rios. A descoberta de abrigos e de animais mordidos pelos morcegos vampiros em outras áreas, além das áreas estabelecidas de risco levaram a questionamentos dos métodos em vigência. Isso estimulou a elaboração de um modelo descritivo para analisar áreas de risco para o ataque espoliativo de morcegos hematófagos em bovinos na região de São João da Boa Vista, estado de São Paulo. Para tanto, foram utilizadas imagens de satélite, parâmetros de estudos anteriores sobre o comportamento dos morcegos vampiros, dados da CDA e da Fundação Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Todas as informações foram agrupadas em um banco de dados e integradas em um Sistema de Informação Geográfica. Contraditoriamente ao que se pensava, observou-se que áreas próximas aos principais rios da região das cidades de Aguaí, Casa Branca, Santa Cruz das Palmeiras e Tambaú não deveriam ser consideradas de risco para o ataque dos morcegos hematófagos em bovinos. Isso sugere que é necessária uma reavaliação dos métodos adotados para o controle das populações da espécie e enfermidade em questão.

Supported by previous studies that selected areas prone for the development of Desmodus rotundus roosts and bovine rabies transmitted by vampire bats in São Paulo state, the Department of Agriculture of the State of São Paulo (CDA) has conducted interventions for bovine rabies control in areas mostly close to the main rivers of surveillance regions. Inquiries of the actual concepts led to the development of a descriptive model to analyze the vampire bat Desmodus rotundus attacks on cattle far beyond main rivers and water streams in the São João da Boa Vista region, São Paulo state. The model was elaborated using satellite images classification, parameters from previous studies about vampire bats behaviour, data from the CDA and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). All this information was used to build a geographical database and integrate in a Geographical Information System then analyzed through spatial statistical and analytical methods. The results showed that areas close to the main rivers of the towns Aguaí, Casa Branca, Santa Cruz das Palmeiras and Tambaú were found not to be under risk of bat attacks, suggesting that the hypothesis behind the CDA control areas definition does not hold when contracted with the obtained spatial data. The results indicate that the technicians from CDA need to reformulate their strategy for defining the surveillance of vampire bat populations and rabies control.