Impact of the early COVID-19 pandemic on adult mental health-related dispensed medications, hospitalizations and specialist outpatient visits in Norway and Sweden: Interrupted time series analysis.

AIMS: Norway and Sweden had different early pandemic responses that may have impacted mental health management. The aim was to assess the impact of the early COVID-19 pandemic on mental health-related care. METHODS: We used national registries in Norway and Sweden (1 January 2018-31 December 2020) to define 2 cohorts: (i) general adult population; and (ii) mental health adult population. Interrupted times series regression analyses evaluated step and slope changes compared to prepandemic levels for monthly rates of medications (antidepressants, antipsychotics, anxiolytics, hypnotics/sedatives, lithium, opioid analgesics, psychostimulants), hospitalizations (for anxiety, bipolar, depressive/mood, eating and schizophrenia/delusional disorders) and specialist outpatient visits. RESULTS: In Norway, immediate reductions occurred in the general population for medications (-12% antidepressants to -7% hypnotics/sedatives) except for antipsychotics; and hospitalizations (-33% anxiety disorders to -17% bipolar disorders). Increasing slope change occurred for all medications except psychostimulants (+1.1%/month hypnotics/sedatives to +1.7%/month antidepressants); and hospitalization for anxiety disorders (+5.5%/month), depressive/mood disorders (+1.7%/month) and schizophrenia/delusional disorders (+2%/month). In Sweden, immediate reductions occurred for antidepressants (-7%) and opioids (-10%) and depressive/mood disorder hospitalizations (-11%) only with increasing slope change in psychostimulant prescribing of (0.9%/month). In contrast to Norway, increasing slope changes occurred in specialist outpatient visits for depressive/mood disorders, eating disorders and schizophrenia/delusional disorders (+1.5, +1.9 and +2.3%/month, respectively). Similar changes occurred in the pre-existing mental health cohorts. CONCLUSION: Differences in early COVID-19 policy response may have contributed to differences in adult mental healthcare provision in Norway and Sweden.

The impact of varying the number and selection of conditions on estimated multimorbidity prevalence: A cross-sectional study using a large, primary care population dataset.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity prevalence rates vary considerably depending on the conditions considered in the morbidity count, but there is no standardised approach to the number or selection of conditions to include. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a cross-sectional study using English primary care data for 1,168,260 participants who were all people alive and permanently registered with 149 included general practices. Outcome measures of the study were prevalence estimates of multimorbidity (defined as ≥2 conditions) when varying the number and selection of conditions considered for 80 conditions. Included conditions featured in ≥1 of the 9 published lists of conditions examined in the study and/or phenotyping algorithms in the Health Data Research UK (HDR-UK) Phenotype Library. First, multimorbidity prevalence was calculated when considering the individually most common 2 conditions, 3 conditions, etc., up to 80 conditions. Second, prevalence was calculated using 9 condition-lists from published studies. Analyses were stratified by dependent variables age, socioeconomic position, and sex. Prevalence when only the 2 commonest conditions were considered was 4.6% (95% CI [4.6, 4.6] p < 0.001), rising to 29.5% (95% CI [29.5, 29.6] p < 0.001) considering the 10 commonest, 35.2% (95% CI [35.1, 35.3] p < 0.001) considering the 20 commonest, and 40.5% (95% CI [40.4, 40.6] p < 0.001) when considering all 80 conditions. The threshold number of conditions at which multimorbidity prevalence was >99% of that measured when considering all 80 conditions was 52 for the whole population but was lower in older people (29 in >80 years) and higher in younger people (71 in 0- to 9-year-olds). Nine published condition-lists were examined; these were either recommended for measuring multimorbidity, used in previous highly cited studies of multimorbidity prevalence, or widely applied measures of "comorbidity." Multimorbidity prevalence using these lists varied from 11.1% to 36.4%. A limitation of the study is that conditions were not always replicated using the same ascertainment rules as previous studies to improve comparability across condition-lists, but this highlights further variability in prevalence estimates across studies. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that varying the number and selection of conditions results in very large differences in multimorbidity prevalence, and different numbers of conditions are needed to reach ceiling rates of multimorbidity prevalence in certain groups of people. These findings imply that there is a need for a standardised approach to defining multimorbidity, and to facilitate this, researchers can use existing condition-lists associated with highest multimorbidity prevalence.

Changing co-morbidity and increasing deprivation among people living with HIV: UK population-based cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The great success of HIV treatments means that, increasingly, people living with HIV (PLHIV) are growing old enough to develop age-associated comorbid conditions. We investigated the evolution of comorbid conditions and demographics among PLHIV in England. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study linking Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) primary care, hospitalization, death registry and Index of Multiple Deprivation data, we measured the prevalence of 304 individual health conditions, categorized into 47 condition groups (36 non-communicable, 11 communicable). Using logistic regression, we calculated odds ratios (ORs) for the likelihood of each condition and condition group in 2015 versus 2008, adjusting for age, sex and deprivation. RESULTS: In 2015, there were 964 CPRD-registered PLHIV compared with 1987 in 2008; 62% were male and 38% female in both cohorts. The 2015 cohort was older, with 51.1% aged 45-64 years and 7.2% aged 65-84 years compared with 31.8% and 3.2%, respectively, in 2008. Deprivation was higher in 2015, at 23.9% (quintile 4) and 28.7% (quintile 5) compared with 5.8% and 6.6%, respectively, in 2008. Of 36 non-communicable condition groups, 14 (39%) occurred in ≥ 10% of PLHIV in 2015, of which seven were more likely in 2015 than in 2008: renal-chronic-kidney-disease [odds ratio (OR) = 1.96 (95% CI: 1.33-2.90); endocrine-obesity [OR = 1.76 (1.12-2.77)]; rheumatology [OR = 1.64 (1.30-2.07)]; dermatology [OR = 1.55(1.29-1.85)]; genito-urinary-gynaecological [OR = 1.44(1.18-1.76)]; eyes-ears/nose/throat [OR = 1.31(1.08-1.59)]; and gastro-intestinal conditions [OR = 1.28 (1.04-1.58)]. Two condition groups, respiratory-chronic-obstructive-pulmonary-disease [OR = 0.36 (0.19-0.69)] and endocrine-diabetes [OR = 0.49 (0.34-0.70)], were less likely in 2015. Ten out of 11 communicable infectious condition groups were less likely in 2015. CONCLUSIONS: Although infections in PLHIV have fallen, chronic non-communicable comorbidity is increasingly prevalent. Alongside the marked increases in deprivation and ageing, this study suggests that socio-economic measures in addition to healthcare provision are needed to achieve holistic health for PLHIV.

External validation of the QLifetime cardiovascular risk prediction tool: population cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prediction of lifetime cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is recommended in many clinical guidelines, but lifetime risk models are rarely externally validated. The aim of this study was to externally validate the QRiskLifetime incident CVD risk prediction tool. METHODS: Independent external validation of QRiskLifetime using Clinical Practice Research Datalink data, examining discrimination and calibration in the whole population and stratified by age, and reclassification compared to QRISK3. Since lifetime CVD risk is unobservable, performance was evaluated at 10-years' follow-up, and lifetime performance inferred in terms of performance for in the different age-groups from which lifetime predictions are derived. RESULTS: One million, two hundreds sixty thousand and three hundreds twenty nine women and 1,223,265 men were included in the analysis. Discrimination was excellent in the whole population (Harrell's-C = 0.844 in women, 0.808 in men), but moderate to poor stratified by age-group (Harrell's C in people aged 30-44 0.714 for both men and women, in people aged 75-84 0.578 in women and 0.556 in men). Ten-year CVD risk was under-predicted in the whole population, and in all age-groups except women aged 45-64, with worse under-prediction in older age-groups. Compared to those at highest QRISK3 estimated 10-year risk, those with highest lifetime risk were younger (mean age: women 50.5 vs. 71.3 years; men 46.3 vs. 63.8 years) and had lower systolic blood pressure and prevalence of treated hypertension, but had more family history of premature CVD, and were more commonly minority ethnic. Over 10-years, the estimated number needed to treat (NNT) with a statin to prevent one CVD event in people with QRISK3 ≥ 10% was 34 in women and 37 in men, compared to 99 and 100 for those at highest lifetime risk. CONCLUSIONS: QRiskLifetime underpredicts 10-year CVD risk in nearly all age-groups, so is likely to also underpredict lifetime risk. Treatment based on lifetime risk has considerably lower medium-term benefit than treatment based on 10-year risk.

Characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients with and without asthma from the United States, South Korea, and Europe.

Objective: Large international comparisons describing the clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 are limited. The aim of the study was to perform a large-scale descriptive characterization of COVID-19 patients with asthma.Methods: We included nine databases contributing data from January to June 2020 from the US, South Korea (KR), Spain, UK and the Netherlands. We defined two cohorts of COVID-19 patients ('diagnosed' and 'hospitalized') based on COVID-19 disease codes. We followed patients from COVID-19 index date to 30 days or death. We performed descriptive analysis and reported the frequency of characteristics and outcomes in people with asthma defined by codes and prescriptions.Results: The diagnosed and hospitalized cohorts contained 666,933 and 159,552 COVID-19 patients respectively. Exacerbation in people with asthma was recorded in 1.6-8.6% of patients at presentation. Asthma prevalence ranged from 6.2% (95% CI 5.7-6.8) to 18.5% (95% CI 18.2-18.8) in the diagnosed cohort and 5.2% (95% CI 4.0-6.8) to 20.5% (95% CI 18.6-22.6) in the hospitalized cohort. Asthma patients with COVID-19 had high prevalence of comorbidity including hypertension, heart disease, diabetes and obesity. Mortality ranged from 2.1% (95% CI 1.8-2.4) to 16.9% (95% CI 13.8-20.5) and similar or lower compared to COVID-19 patients without asthma. Acute respiratory distress syndrome occurred in 15-30% of hospitalized COVID-19 asthma patients.Conclusion: The prevalence of asthma among COVID-19 patients varies internationally. Asthma patients with COVID-19 have high comorbidity. The prevalence of asthma exacerbation at presentation was low. Whilst mortality was similar among COVID-19 patients with and without asthma, this could be confounded by differences in clinical characteristics. Further research could help identify high-risk asthma patients.[Box: see text]Supplemental data for this article is available online at https://doi.org/10.1080/02770903.2021.2025392 .

Predictive performance of a competing risk cardiovascular prediction tool CRISK compared to QRISK3 in older people and those with comorbidity: population cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Recommended cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction tools do not account for competing mortality risk and over-predict incident CVD in older and multimorbid people. The aim of this study was to derive and validate a competing risk model (CRISK) to predict incident CVD and compare its performance to that of QRISK3 in UK primary care. METHODS: We used UK linked primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD to identify people aged 25-84 years with no previous CVD or statin treatment split into derivation and validation cohorts. In the derivation cohort, we derived models using the same covariates as QRISK3 with Fine-Gray competing risk modelling alone (CRISK) and with Charlson Comorbidity score (CRISK-CCI) as an additional predictor of non-CVD death. In a separate validation cohort, we examined discrimination and calibration compared to QRISK3. Reclassification analysis examined the number of patients recommended for treatment and the estimated number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent a new CVD event. RESULTS: The derivation and validation cohorts included 989,732 and 494,865 women and 946,784 and 473,392 men respectively. Overall discrimination of CRISK and CRISK-CCI were excellent and similar to QRISK3 (for women, C-statistic = 0.863/0.864/0.863 respectively; for men 0.833/0.819/0.832 respectively). CRISK and CRISK-CCI calibration overall and in younger people was excellent. CRISK over-predicted in older and multimorbid people although performed better than QRISK3, whilst CRISK-CCI performed the best. The proportion of people reclassified by CRISK-CCI varied by QRISK3 risk score category, with 0.7-9.7% of women and 2.8-25.2% of men reclassified as higher risk and 21.0-69.1% of women and 27.1-57.4% of men reclassified as lower risk. Overall, CRISK-CCI recommended fewer people for treatment and had a lower estimated NNT at 10% risk threshold. Patients reclassified as higher risk were younger, had lower SBP and higher BMI, and were more likely to smoke. CONCLUSIONS: CRISK and CRISK-CCI performed better than QRISK3. CRISK-CCI recommends fewer people for treatment and has a lower NNT to prevent a new CVD event compared to QRISK3. Competing risk models should be recommended for CVD primary prevention treatment recommendations.

Patient outcomes following AKI and AKD: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common and associated with adverse outcomes as well as important healthcare costs. However, evidence examining the epidemiology of acute kidney disease (AKD)-recently defined as AKI persisting between 7 and 90 days-remains limited. The aims of this study were to establish the rates of early AKI recovery, progression to AKD and non-recovery; examine risk factors associated with non-recovery and investigate the association between recovery timing and adverse outcomes, in a population-based cohort. METHODS: All adult residents of Tayside & Fife, Scotland, UK, with at least one episode of community or hospital-managed AKI using KDIGO creatinine-based definition during the period 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2018 were identified. Logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with non-recovery, and Cox modelling was used to establish associations between AKI recovery timing and risks of mortality and development of de novo CKD. RESULTS: Over 9 years, 56,906 patients with at least one AKI episode were identified with 18,773 (33%) of these progressing to AKD. Of those progressing to AKD, 5059 (27%) had still not recovered at day 90 post AKI diagnosis. Risk factors for AKD included: increasing AKI severity, pre-existing cancer or chronic heart failure and recent use of loop diuretics. Compared with early AKI recovery, progression to AKD was associated with increased hazard of 1-year mortality and de novo CKD (HR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.26 and HR = 2.21, 95% CI 1.91 to 2.57 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the importance of early AKI recognition and management to avoid progression to AKD and long-term adverse outcomes.

Characteristics and outcomes of 627 044 COVID-19 patients living with and without obesity in the United States, Spain, and the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: A detailed characterization of patients with COVID-19 living with obesity has not yet been undertaken. We aimed to describe and compare the demographics, medical conditions, and outcomes of COVID-19 patients living with obesity (PLWO) to those of patients living without obesity. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study based on outpatient/inpatient care and claims data from January to June 2020 from Spain, the UK, and the US. We used six databases standardized to the OMOP common data model. We defined two non-mutually exclusive cohorts of patients diagnosed and/or hospitalized with COVID-19; patients were followed from index date to 30 days or death. We report the frequency of demographics, prior medical conditions, and 30-days outcomes (hospitalization, events, and death) by obesity status. RESULTS: We included 627 044 (Spain: 122 058, UK: 2336, and US: 502 650) diagnosed and 160 013 (Spain: 18 197, US: 141 816) hospitalized patients with COVID-19. The prevalence of obesity was higher among patients hospitalized (39.9%, 95%CI: 39.8-40.0) than among those diagnosed with COVID-19 (33.1%; 95%CI: 33.0-33.2). In both cohorts, PLWO were more often female. Hospitalized PLWO were younger than patients without obesity. Overall, COVID-19 PLWO were more likely to have prior medical conditions, present with cardiovascular and respiratory events during hospitalization, or require intensive services compared to COVID-19 patients without obesity. CONCLUSION: We show that PLWO differ from patients without obesity in a wide range of medical conditions and present with more severe forms of COVID-19, with higher hospitalization rates and intensive services requirements. These findings can help guiding preventive strategies of COVID-19 infection and complications and generating hypotheses for causal inference studies.

Risk of depression, suicide and psychosis with hydroxychloroquine treatment for rheumatoid arthritis: a multinational network cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Concern has been raised in the rheumatology community regarding recent regulatory warnings that HCQ used in the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic could cause acute psychiatric events. We aimed to study whether there is risk of incident depression, suicidal ideation or psychosis associated with HCQ as used for RA. METHODS: We performed a new-user cohort study using claims and electronic medical records from 10 sources and 3 countries (Germany, UK and USA). RA patients ≥18 years of age and initiating HCQ were compared with those initiating SSZ (active comparator) and followed up in the short (30 days) and long term (on treatment). Study outcomes included depression, suicide/suicidal ideation and hospitalization for psychosis. Propensity score stratification and calibration using negative control outcomes were used to address confounding. Cox models were fitted to estimate database-specific calibrated hazard ratios (HRs), with estimates pooled where I2 <40%. RESULTS: A total of 918 144 and 290 383 users of HCQ and SSZ, respectively, were included. No consistent risk of psychiatric events was observed with short-term HCQ (compared with SSZ) use, with meta-analytic HRs of 0.96 (95% CI 0.79, 1.16) for depression, 0.94 (95% CI 0.49, 1.77) for suicide/suicidal ideation and 1.03 (95% CI 0.66, 1.60) for psychosis. No consistent long-term risk was seen, with meta-analytic HRs of 0.94 (95% CI 0.71, 1.26) for depression, 0.77 (95% CI 0.56, 1.07) for suicide/suicidal ideation and 0.99 (95% CI 0.72, 1.35) for psychosis. CONCLUSION: HCQ as used to treat RA does not appear to increase the risk of depression, suicide/suicidal ideation or psychosis compared with SSZ. No effects were seen in the short or long term. Use at a higher dose or for different indications needs further investigation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered with EU PAS (reference no. EUPAS34497; http://www.encepp.eu/encepp/viewResource.htm? id=34498). The full study protocol and analysis source code can be found at https://github.com/ohdsi-studies/Covid19EstimationHydroxychloroquine2.

COVID-19 in patients with autoimmune diseases: characteristics and outcomes in a multinational network of cohorts across three countries.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with autoimmune diseases were advised to shield to avoid coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but information on their prognosis is lacking. We characterized 30-day outcomes and mortality after hospitalization with COVID-19 among patients with prevalent autoimmune diseases, and compared outcomes after hospital admissions among similar patients with seasonal influenza. METHODS: A multinational network cohort study was conducted using electronic health records data from Columbia University Irving Medical Center [USA, Optum (USA), Department of Veterans Affairs (USA), Information System for Research in Primary Care-Hospitalization Linked Data (Spain) and claims data from IQVIA Open Claims (USA) and Health Insurance and Review Assessment (South Korea). All patients with prevalent autoimmune diseases, diagnosed and/or hospitalized between January and June 2020 with COVID-19, and similar patients hospitalized with influenza in 2017-18 were included. Outcomes were death and complications within 30 days of hospitalization. RESULTS: We studied 133 589 patients diagnosed and 48 418 hospitalized with COVID-19 with prevalent autoimmune diseases. Most patients were female, aged ≥50 years with previous comorbidities. The prevalence of hypertension (45.5-93.2%), chronic kidney disease (14.0-52.7%) and heart disease (29.0-83.8%) was higher in hospitalized vs diagnosed patients with COVID-19. Compared with 70 660 hospitalized with influenza, those admitted with COVID-19 had more respiratory complications including pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome, and higher 30-day mortality (2.2-4.3% vs 6.32-24.6%). CONCLUSION: Compared with influenza, COVID-19 is a more severe disease, leading to more complications and higher mortality.

Antithyroid drug use during pregnancy and the risk of birth defects in offspring: systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies with methodological considerations.

AIMS: Maternal antithyroid drug (ATD) use during pregnancy has been associated with an increased risk of birth defects in offspring. Uncertainty remains on the size of this risk and how it compares to untreated hyperthyroidism due to methodological limitations of previous studies. METHODS: Systematic review of MEDLINE and EMBASE identifying observational studies examining ATD use during pregnancy and risk of birth defects by 28 August 2020. Data were extracted on study characteristics, effect estimates and comparator groups. Adjusted effect estimates were pooled using a random-effects generic inverse variance method and absolute risk calculated. RESULTS: Seven cohort studies and 1 case-control study involving 6 212 322 pregnancies and 388 976 birth defects were identified reporting regression effect estimates. Compared to an unexposed population comparison, the association between ATD use during pregnancy and birth defects in offspring was: adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 1.16 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.25 for propylthiouracil (PTU); aRR 1.28 95%CI 1.06-1.54 for methimazole/carbimazole (MMI/CMZ); aRR 1.51, 95%CI 1.16-1.97 for both MMI/CMZ and PTU; and aRR 1.15 95%CI 1.02-1.29 for untreated hyperthyroidism. The excess risk of any and major birth defects per 1000, respectively, was: 10.2 and 1.3 for PTU; 17.8 and 2.3 for MMI/CMZ; 32.5 and 4.1 for both MMI/CMZ and PTU; and 9.6 and 1.2 for untreated hyperthyroidism. CONCLUSIONS: When appropriately analysed the risk of birth defects associated with ATD use in pregnancy is attenuated. Although still elevated, the risk of birth defects is smallest with PTU compared to MMI/CMZ and may be similar to that of untreated hyperthyroidism.

Impact of EU regulatory label changes for diclofenac in people with cardiovascular disease in four countries: Interrupted time series regression analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Due to cardiovascular safety concerns, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) recommended new contraindications and changes to product information for diclofenac across Europe in 2013. This study aims to measure their impact among targeted populations. METHOD: Quarterly interrupted time series regression (ITS) analyses of diclofenac initiation among cohorts with contraindications (congestive cardiac failure [CHF], ischaemic heart disease [IHD], peripheral arterial disease [PAD], cerebrovascular disease [CVD]) and cautions (hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, diabetes) from Denmark, the Netherlands, England and Scotland. RESULTS: The regulatory action was associated with significant immediate absolute reductions in diclofenac initiation in all countries for IHD (Denmark -0.08%, 95%CI -0.13, -0.03; England -0.09%, 95%CI -0.13 to -0.06%; the Netherlands -1.84%, 95%CI -2.51 to -1.17%; Scotland -0.34%, 95%CI -0.38 to -0.30%), PAD and hyperlipidaemia, the Netherlands, England and Scotland for hypertension and diabetes, and England and Scotland for CHF and CVD. Post-intervention there was a significant negative trend in diclofenac initiation in the Netherlands for IHD (-0.12%, 95%CI -0.19 to -0.04), PAD (-0.13%, 95%CI -0.22 to -0.05), hypertension, hyperlipidaemia and diabetes, and in Scotland for CHF (-0.01%, 95%CI -0.02 to -0.007%), IHD (-0.017, 95%CI -0.02, -0.01%), PAD and hypertension. In England, diclofenac initiation rates fell less steeply. In Denmark changes were more strongly associated with the earlier EMA 2012 regulatory action. CONCLUSION: Although significant reductions in diclofenac initiation occurred, patients with contraindications continued to be prescribed diclofenac, the extent of which varied by country and target condition. Understanding reasons for such variation may help to guide the design or dissemination of future safety warnings.

Does additional monitoring status increase the reporting of adverse drug reactions? An interrupted time series analysis of EudraVigilance data.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the impact of including a medicine in the list of medicinal products subject to additional monitoring (AM) on the reporting of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) in the european economic area (EEA). METHODS: Interrupted time series using the monthly number of EEA ADR reports in EudraVigilance during 12 months before and after the addition to AM list. The main outcome was the change (%) in reporting of ADRs with step change as the a priori impact model. Further time series analysis was performed using Joinpoint Regression. RESULTS: The analysis included 11 active substances. No significant immediate (step change) increase of reporting was identified for any product at time of addition to AM list. We identified a significant gradual increase of ADR reporting after addition to AM list (slope change) for two out of five new products-boceprevir (10% per month, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3%-18%) and denosumab-Xgeva (13% per month, 95% CI 4%-22%). No change was identified for Prolia, another denosumab-containing product not subject to AM. No significant increase was identified for any product included in the AM list due to the requirement to conduct a PASS. Conversely, a gradual decrease in reporting was identified for natalizumab (-5% per month; 95% CI -10% to -1%), rivaroxaban (-5%; -8 to -3%), and varenicline (-16%; -21 to -10%). The results were corroborated by the Joinpoint analyses, which yielded similar results. CONCLUSIONS: We identified limited evidence that reporting of ADRs increased modestly and gradually for some new products and not for products with PASS requirement.

Impact of EMA regulatory label changes on hydroxyzine initiation, discontinuation and switching to other medicines in Denmark, Scotland, England and the Netherlands: An interrupted time series regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: Hydroxyzine is indicated for the management of anxiety, skin and sleep disorders. In 2015, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) concluded that hydroxyzine was pro-arrhythmogenic and changes to the product information were implemented in Europe. This study aimed to evaluate their impact in Denmark, Scotland, England and the Netherlands. METHOD: Quarterly time series analyses measuring hydroxyzine initiation, discontinuation, and switching to other antihistamines, benzodiazepines and antidepressants in Denmark, England, Scotland and the Netherlands from 2009 to 2018. Data were analysed using interrupted time series regression. RESULTS: Hydroxyzine initiation in quarter one 2010 in Denmark, Scotland, England and the Netherlands per 100 000 was: 23.5, 91.5, 35.9 and 34.4 respectively. Regulatory action was associated with a significant: immediate fall in hydroxyzine initiation per 100 000 in England (-12.05, 95%CI -18.47 to -5.63) and Scotland (-19.01, 95%CI -26.99 to -11.02); change to a negative trend in hydroxyzine initiation per 100 000/quarter in England (-1.72, 95%CI -2.69 to -0.75) and Scotland (-2.38, 95%CI -3.32 to -1.44). Regulatory action was associated with a significant: immediate rise in hydroxyzine discontinuation per 100 000 in England (3850, 95%CI 440-7240). No consistent changes were observed in the Netherlands or Denmark. Regulatory action was associated with no switching to other antihistamines, benzodiazepines or antidepressants following hydroxyzine discontinuation in any country. CONCLUSION: The 2015 EMA regulatory action was associated with heterogeneous impact with reductions in hydroxyzine initiation varying by country. There was limited impact on discontinuation with no strong evidence suggesting unintended consequences of major switching to other antihistamines, benzodiazepines or antidepressants.

Association between hydrochlorothiazide exposure and different incident skin, lip and oral cavity cancers: A series of population-based nested case-control studies.

AIMS: Hydrochlorothiazide-induced photosensitivity may increase squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and lip cancer risk. The aim was to quantify these risks. METHODS: Nested case-control studies using data from the UK THIN database from 01 January 1999 to 01 May 2016. Adults with incident SCC, BCC, melanoma, lip cancer and oral cancer were matched (on age, sex and calendar year of cohort entry) to controls using incidence density sampling. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) for each outcome were calculated for ever and cumulative hydrochlorothiazide exposure, measuring the impact of additionally adjusting for smoking and body mass index (BMI). Adjusted rate differences were estimated, including the number needed to harm. RESULTS: Cumulative hydrochlorothiazide doses ≥50 000 mg were associated with a significantly increased risk of SCC IRR = 3.05 (1.93-4.81) and BCC IRR = 1.34 (1.06-1.69). Using a 5-year lag-period, hydrochlorothiazide exposure was also associated with a significantly increased risk of lip cancer (IRR 2.85, 95% confidence interval 1.32-6.15). No significantly increased risk of melanoma or oral cavity cancer was observed. Following adjustment for smoking and BMI, which had inverse associations with several skin cancer types, associations for hydrochlorothiazide remained significant. The overall number needed to harm with high-dose cumulative hydrochlorothiazide exposure was: 804 for SCC; 2463 for BCC, and 200 000 for lip cancer but varied by age and sex. CONCLUSION: Hydrochlorothiazide exposure was associated with an increased risk of SCC, BCC and lip cancer that is not explained following adjustment for smoking and BMI. These findings may support clinical and regulatory decision making.

Impact of medicines regulatory risk communications in the UK on prescribing and clinical outcomes: Systematic review, time series analysis and meta-analysis.

AIMS: Regulatory risk communications are important to ensure medication safety, but their impact is poorly understood. The aim was to quantify the impact of UK risk communications on medication use and other outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of studies reporting prescribing/health outcome data relevant to UK regulatory risk communication. Data were reanalysed using interrupted time series regression 12 months after each regulatory intervention. Mean changes were pooled using random-effects generic inverse variance examining the following subgroups: drug withdrawals; restrictions/changes in indications; be aware messages without specific recommendations for action; communication via direct healthcare practitioner communications; communication via drug bulletins. RESULTS: Of 11 466 articles screened, 40 studies examining 25 UK regulatory risk communications were included. Product withdrawals, restriction in indications and be aware communications were associated with relative mean changes of -78% (95% confidence interval [CI] -60 to -96%), -34% (95% confidence interval [CI] -12 to -55%) and -11% (95%CI -8 to -15%) in targeted drug prescribing respectively. Direct healthcare professional communications were associated with relative mean changes of -47% (95%CI -27 to -68%) compared to -13% (95%CI -6 to -20%) for drug bulletins. Of 7 studies examining unique health outcomes related to the safety concern, risk communications were associated with a mean -10% (95%CI -3 to -16%) decrease in intended and a 7% (95%CI 4 to 10%) increase in unintended health outcomes. DISCUSSION: UK regulatory risk communications were associated with significant changes in targeted prescribing and potential changes in clinical outcomes. Further research is needed to systematically study the impact of regulatory interventions.

Impact of EMA regulatory label changes on systemic diclofenac initiation, discontinuation, and switching to other pain medicines in Scotland, England, Denmark, and The Netherlands.

PURPOSE: In June 2013 a European Medicines Agency referral procedure concluded that diclofenac was associated with an elevated risk of acute cardiovascular events and contraindications, warnings, and changes to the product information were implemented across the European Union. This study measured the impact of the regulatory action on the prescribing of systemic diclofenac in Denmark, The Netherlands, England, and Scotland. METHODS: Quarterly time series analyses measuring diclofenac prescription initiation, discontinuation and switching to other systemic nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory (NSAIDs), topical NSAIDs, paracetamol, opioids, and other chronic pain medication in those who discontinued diclofenac. Absolute effects were estimated using interrupted time series regression. RESULTS: Overall, diclofenac prescription initiations fell during the observation periods of all countries. Compared with Denmark where there appeared to be a more limited effect, the regulatory action was associated with significant immediate reductions in diclofenac initiation in The Netherlands (-0.42%, 95% CI, -0.66% to -0.18%), England (-0.09%, 95% CI, -0.11% to -0.08%), and Scotland (-0.67%, 95% CI, -0.79% to -0.55%); and falling trends in diclofenac initiation in the Netherlands (-0.03%, 95% CI, -0.06% to -0.01% per quarter) and Scotland (-0.04%, 95% CI, -0.05% to -0.02% per quarter). There was no significant impact on diclofenac discontinuation in any country. The regulatory action was associated with modest differences in switching to other pain medicines following diclofenac discontinuation. CONCLUSIONS: The regulatory action was associated with significant reductions in overall diclofenac initiation which varied by country and type of exposure. There was no impact on discontinuation and variable impact on switching.

Antidepressant use during pregnancy and risk of autism spectrum disorder and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder: systematic review of observational studies and methodological considerations.

BACKGROUND: Antidepressant exposure during pregnancy has been associated with an increased risk of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in several observational studies. We performed a systematic review of these studies to highlight the effect that important methodological limitations have on such analyses and to consider approaches to the conduct, reporting and interpretation of future studies. METHODS: A review of MEDLINE and EMBASE identified case-control, cohort and sibling studies assessing the risk of ASD and ADHD with antidepressant use during pregnancy. Approaches to confounding adjustment were described. Crude and adjusted effect estimates for comparisons between antidepressant exposure during pregnancy vs. all unexposed women were first meta-analysed using a generic inverse variance method of analysis, followed by effect estimates for alternative pre-selected comparison groups. RESULTS: A total of 15 studies measuring ASD as an outcome (involving 3,585,686 children and 40,585 cases) and seven studies measuring ADHD as an outcome (involving 2,765,723 patients and 52,313 cases) were identified. Variation in confounding adjustment existed between studies. Updated effect estimates for the association between maternal antidepressant exposure during pregnancy vs. all unexposed women remained statistically significant for ASD (adjusted random-effects risk ratio [RaRR] 1.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.31-1.78). Similar significant associations were observed using pre-pregnancy maternal antidepressant exposure (RaRR 1.48, 95% CI 1.29-1.71) and paternal antidepressant exposure during pregnancy (1.29, 95% CI 1.08-1.53), but analyses restricted to using women with a history of affective disorder (1.18, 95% CI 0.91-1.52) and sibling studies (0.96, 95% CI 0.65-1.42) were not statistically significant. Corresponding associations for risk of ADHD with exposure were: RaRR 1.38, 95% CI 1.13-1.69 (during pregnancy), RaRR 1.38, 95% CI 1.14-1.69 (during pre-pregnancy), RaRR 1.71, 95% CI 1.31-2.23 (paternal exposure), RaRR 0.98, 95% CI 0.77-1.24 (women with a history of affective disorder) and RaRR 0.88, 95% CI 0.70-1.11 (sibling studies). CONCLUSIONS: Existing observational studies measuring the risk of ASD and ADHD with antidepressant exposure are heterogeneous in their design. Classical comparisons between exposed and unexposed women during pregnancy are at high risk of residual confounding. Alternative comparisons and sibling designs may aid the interpretation of causality and their utility requires further evaluation, including understanding potential limitations of undertaking meta-analyses with such data.

Low uptake of palliative care for COPD patients within primary care in the UK.

Mortality and symptom burden from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer are similar but there is thought to be an inequality in palliative care support (PCS) between diseases. This nationally representative study assessed PCS for COPD patients within primary care in the UK.This was a cohort study using electronic healthcare records (2004-2015). Factors associated with receiving PCS were assessed using logistic regression for the whole cohort and deceased patients.There were 92 365 eligible COPD patients, of which 26 135 died. Only 7.8% of the whole cohort and 21.4% of deceased patients received PCS. Lung cancer had a strong association with PCS compared with other patient characteristics, including Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stage and Medical Research Council Dyspnoea score (whole cohort, lung cancer: OR 14.1, 95% CI 13.1-15; deceased patients, lung cancer: OR 6.5, 95% CI 6-7). Only 16.7% of deceased COPD patients without lung cancer received PCS compared with 56.5% of deceased patients with lung cancer. In patients that received PCS, lung cancer co-diagnosis significantly increased the chances of receiving PCS before the last month of life (1-6 versus ≤1 month pre-death: risk ratio 1.4, 95% CI 1.3-1.7).Provision of PCS for COPD patients in the UK is inadequate. Lung cancer, not COPD, was the dominant driver for COPD patients to receive PCS.