Migration, externalities, and the diffusion of COVID-19 in South Asia☆.

The initial spread of COVID-19 halted economic activity as countries around the world restricted the mobility of their citizens. As a result, many migrant workers returned home, spreading the virus across borders. We investigate the relationship between migrant movements and the spread of COVID-19 using district-day-level data from Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan (the 1st, 6th, and 7th largest sources of international migrant workers). We find that during the initial stage of the pandemic, a 1 SD increase in prior international out-migration relative to the district-wise average in India and Pakistan predicts a 48% increase in the number of cases per capita. In Bangladesh, however, the estimates are not statistically distinguishable from zero. Domestic out-migration predicts COVID-19 diffusion in India, but not in Bangladesh and Pakistan. In all three countries, the association of COVID-19 cases per capita and measures of international out-migration increases over time. The results show how migration data can be used to predict coronavirus hotspots. More broadly, the results are consistent with large cross-border negative externalities created by policies aimed at containing the spread of COVID-19 in migrant-receiving countries.

Living on low-incomes with multiple long-term health conditions: A new method to explore the complex interaction between finance and health.

People on low-incomes in the UK develop multiple long-term health conditions over 10 years earlier than affluent individuals. Financial diaries -new to public health- are used to explore the lived experiences of financially-vulnerable individuals, diagnosed with at least one long-term condition, living in two inner-city London Boroughs. Findings show that the health status of these individuals is a key barrier to work opportunities, undermining their income. Their precarious and uncertain financial situation, sometimes combined with housing issues, increased stress and anxiety which, in turn, contributed to further deteriorate participants' health. Long-term health conditions limited the strategies to overcome moments of financial crisis and diarists frequently used credit to cope. Restrictions to access reliable services and timely support were connected to the progression of multiple long-term conditions. Models that integrate healthcare, public health, welfare and financial support are needed to slow down the progression from one to many long-term health conditions.