Effects of growth rate, size, and light availability on tree survival across life stages: a demographic analysis accounting for missing values and small sample sizes.

BACKGROUND: Plant survival is a key factor in forest dynamics and survival probabilities often vary across life stages. Studies specifically aimed at assessing tree survival are unusual and so data initially designed for other purposes often need to be used; such data are more likely to contain errors than data collected for this specific purpose. RESULTS: We investigate the survival rates of ten tree species in a dataset designed to monitor growth rates. As some individuals were not included in the census at some time points we use capture-mark-recapture methods both to allow us to account for missing individuals, and to estimate relocation probabilities. Growth rates, size, and light availability were included as covariates in the model predicting survival rates. The study demonstrates that tree mortality is best described as constant between years and size-dependent at early life stages and size independent at later life stages for most species of UK hardwood. We have demonstrated that even with a twenty-year dataset it is possible to discern variability both between individuals and between species. CONCLUSIONS: Our work illustrates the potential utility of the method applied here for calculating plant population dynamics parameters in time replicated datasets with small sample sizes and missing individuals without any loss of sample size, and including explanatory covariates.

Predictive systems ecology.

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

Wind turbine power and land cover effects on cumulative bat deaths.

Wind turbines (WT) cause bird and bat mortalities which depend on the WT and landscape features. The effects of WT features and environmental variables at different spatial scales associated to bat deaths in a mountainous and forested area in Thrace, NE Greece were investigated. Initially, we sought to quantify the most lethal WT characteristic between tower height, rotor diameter and power. The scale of interaction distance between bat deaths and the land cover characteristics surrounding the WTs was quantified. A statistical model was trained and validated against bat deaths and WT, land cover, and topography features. Variance partitioning between bat deaths and the explanatory covariates was conducted. The trained model was used to predict bat deaths attributed to existing and future wind farm development in the region. Results indicated that the optimal interaction distance between WT and surrounding land cover was 5 km, the larger distance than the ones examined. WT power, natural land cover type and distance from water explained 40 %, 15 % and 11 % respectively of the total variance in bat deaths by WTs. The model predicted that operating but not surveyed WTs comprise of 377.8 % and licensed but not operating yet will contribute to 210.2 % additional deaths than the ones recorded. Results indicate that among all WT features and land cover characteristics, wind turbine power is the most significant factor associated to bat deaths. In addition, WTs located within 5 km buffer comprised of natural land cover types have substantial higher deaths. More WT power will result in more deaths. Wind turbines should not be licensed in areas where natural land cover at a radius of 5 km exceeds 50 %. These results are discussed in the climate-land use-biodiversity-energy nexus.

Dialysis Patients Respond Adequately to Influenza Vaccination Irrespective of Dialysis Modality and Chronic Inflammation.

(1) Background: Chronic inflammation and suboptimal immune responses to vaccinations are considered to be aspects of immune dysregulation in patients that are undergoing dialysis. The present study aimed to evaluate immune responses in hemodialysis (HD) and online hemodiafiltration (OL-HDF) patients to a seasonal inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine (IQIV). (2) Methods: We enrolled 172 chronic dialysis patients (87 on HD and 85 on OL-HDF) and 18 control subjects without chronic kidney disease in a prospective, cross-sectional cohort study. Participants were vaccinated with a seasonal IQIV, and antibody titers using the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay were determined before vaccination (month 0) and 1, 3, and 6 months thereafter. Demographics and inflammatory markers (CRP, IL-6, IL-1ß) were recorded at month 0. The primary endpoints were the rates of seroresponse (SR), defined as a four-fold increase in the HI titer, and seroprotection (SP), defined as HI titer ≥ 1/40 throughout the study period. Statistical analyses were conducted in R (version 3.6.3) statistical software. The differences between groups were analyzed using chi-square and t-test analyses for dichotomous and continuous variables, respectively. To identify independent determinants of SR and SP, generalized linear models were built with response or protection per virus strain as the dependent variable and group, age, sex, time (month 0, 1, 3, 6), diabetes, IL-6, dialysis vintage, HD access, and HDF volume as independent explanatory variables. (3) Results: SR and SP rates were similar between control subjects, and dialysis patients were not affected by dialysis modality. SP rates were high (> 70%) at the beginning of the study and practically reached 100% after vaccination in all study groups. These results applied to all four virus strains that were included in the IQIV. IL-6 levels significantly differed between study groups, with HD patients displaying the highest values, but this did not affect SP rates. (4) Conclusions: Dialysis patients respond to influenza immunization adequately and similarly to the general population. Thus, annual vaccination policies should be encouraged in dialysis units. OL-HDF reduces chronic inflammation; however, this has no impact on SR rates.

The biodiversity-wind energy-land use nexus in a global biodiversity hotspot.

Wind energy is the leading renewable technology towards achieving climate goals, yet biodiversity trade-offs via land take are emerging. Thus, we are facing the paradox of impacting on biodiversity to combat climate change. We suggest a novel method of spatial planning that enhances windfarm sustainability: investments are prioritized in the most fragmented zones that lie outside the Natura 2000 network of protected areas. We showcase it in Greece, a biodiversity hotspot with a strong climate policy and land conflict between conservation and wind energy schemes. The analysis indicates that the suggested investment zone supports wind harnessing 1.5 times higher than the 2030 national goal, having only marginally lower (4%) wind speed. It performs well for the conservation of the annexed habitats and species of the two Nature Directives and it greatly overlaps with the Important Bird Areas (93%) and the roadless areas (80%) of Greece. It also greatly overlaps (82%-91%) with the exclusion zones suggested according to three sensitivity maps for bird conservation. Since land use change triggers biodiversity decline, we underline the necessity of such approaches for meeting both climate and biodiversity goals and call for a greater environmental policy convergence towards biodiversity conservation and no net land take.

Data-driven competitive facilitative tree interactions and their implications on nature-based solutions.

Spatio-temporal data are more ubiquitous and richer than even before and the availability of such data poses great challenges in data analytics. Ecological facilitation, the positive effect of density of individuals on the individual's survival across a stress gradient, is a complex phenomenon. A large number of tree individuals coupled with soil moisture, temperature, and water stress data across a long temporal period were followed. Data-driven analysis in the absence of hypothesis was performed. Information theoretic analysis of multiple statistical models was employed in order to quantify the best data-driven index of vegetation density and spatial scale of interactions. Sequentially, tree survival was quantified as a function of the size of the individual, vegetation density, and time at the optimal spatial interaction scale. Land surface temperature and soil moisture were also statistically explained by tree size, density, and time. Results indicated that in space both facilitation and competition co-exist in the same ecosystem and the sign and magnitude of this depend on the spatial scale. Overall, within the optimal data-driven spatial scale, tree survival was best explained by the interaction between density and year, sifting overall from facilitation to competition through time. However, small sized trees were always facilitated by increased densities, while large sized trees had either negative or no density effects. Tree size was more important predictor than density in survival and this has implications for nature-based solutions: maintaining large tree individuals or planting species that can become large-sized can safeguard against tree-less areas by promoting survival at long time periods through harsh environmental conditions. Large trees had also a significant effect in moderating land surface temperature and this effect was higher than the one of vegetation density on temperature.

Sampling alien species inside and outside protected areas: Does it matter?

Data of alien species presences are generally more readily available in protected than non-protected areas due to higher sampling efforts inside protected areas. Are the results and conclusions based on analyses of data collected in protected areas representative of wider non-protected regions? We address this question by analysing some recently published data of alien plants in Greece. Mixed effects models were used with alien species presences in 8.25×8.25km cells as dependent variable and the percentage of protected area, as well as the agricultural and artificial land cover types richness (as indicators of human presence) as independent variables. In addition, the spatial cross-correlation between the percentage of protected area and alien species richness was examined across scales. Results indicated that the percentage of protected area per cell is a poor predictor of alien species richness. Spatial analysis indicated that cells with higher percentage of protected areas have slightly less alien species than cells with lower percentage of protected areas. This result is likely to be driven by the overall negative correlation between habitat protection and anthropogenic activities. Thus, the conclusions deduced by data deriving from protected areas are likely to hold true for patterns of alien species in non-protected areas when the human pressures are accounted for.

Abrupt events and population synchrony in the dynamics of Bovine Tuberculosis.

Disease control strategies can have both intended and unintended effects on the dynamics of infectious diseases. Routine testing for the harmful pathogen Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) was suspended briefly during the foot and mouth disease epidemic of 2001 in Great Britain. Here we utilize bTB incidence data and mathematical models to demonstrate how a lapse in management can alter epidemiological parameters, including the rate of new infections and duration of infection cycles. Testing interruption shifted the dynamics from annual to 4-year cycles, and created long-lasting shifts in the spatial synchrony of new infections among regions of Great Britain. After annual testing was introduced in some GB regions, new infections have become more de-synchronised, a result also confirmed by a stochastic model. These results demonstrate that abrupt events can synchronise disease dynamics and that changes in the epidemiological parameters can lead to chaotic patterns, which are hard to be quantified, predicted, and controlled.

A comparison between data requirements and availability for calibrating predictive ecological models for lowland UK woodlands: learning new tricks from old trees.

Woodlands provide valuable ecosystem services, and it is important to understand their dynamics. To predict the way in which these might change, we need process-based predictive ecological models, but these are necessarily very data intensive. We tested the ability of existing datasets to provide the parameters necessary to instantiate a well-used forest model (SORTIE) for a well-studied woodland (Wytham Woods). Only five of SORTIE's 16 equations describing different aspects of the life history and behavior of individual trees could be parameterized without additional data collection. One age class - seedlings - was completely missed as they are shorter than the height at which Diameter at Breast Height (DBH) is measured. The mensuration of trees has changed little in the last 400 years (focussing almost exclusively on DBH) despite major changes in the nature of the source of value obtained from trees over this time. This results in there being insufficient data to parameterize process-based models in order to meet the societal demand for ecological prediction. We do not advocate ceasing the measurement of DBH, but we do recommend that those concerned with tree mensuration consider whether additional measures of trees could be added to their data collection protocols. We also see advantages in integrating techniques such as ground-based LIDAR or remote sensing techniques with long-term datasets to both preserve continuity with what has been performed in the past and to expand the range of measurements made.

Allometry and growth of eight tree taxa in United Kingdom woodlands.

As part of a project to develop predictive ecosystem models of United Kingdom woodlands we have collated data from two United Kingdom woodlands - Wytham Woods and Alice Holt. Here we present data from 582 individual trees of eight taxa in the form of summary variables relating to the allometric relationships between trunk diameter, height, crown height, crown radius and trunk radial growth rate to the tree's light environment and diameter at breast height. In addition the raw data files containing the variables from which the summary data were obtained. Large sample sizes with longitudinal data spanning 22 years make these datasets useful for future studies concerned with the way trees change in size and shape over their life-span.

Integrating evolution into ecological modelling: accommodating phenotypic changes in agent based models.

Evolutionary change is a characteristic of living organisms and forms one of the ways in which species adapt to changed conditions. However, most ecological models do not incorporate this ubiquitous phenomenon. We have developed a model that takes a 'phenotypic gambit' approach and focuses on changes in the frequency of phenotypes (which differ in timing of breeding and fecundity) within a population, using, as an example, seasonal breeding. Fitness per phenotype calculated as the individual's contribution to population growth on an annual basis coincide with the population dynamics per phenotype. Simplified model variants were explored to examine whether the complexity included in the model is justified. Outputs from the spatially implicit model underestimated the number of individuals across all phenotypes. When no phenotype transitions are included (i.e. offspring always inherit their parent's phenotype) numbers of all individuals are always underestimated. We conclude that by using a phenotypic gambit approach evolutionary dynamics can be incorporated into individual based models, and that all that is required is an understanding of the probability of offspring inheriting the parental phenotype.

Facilitation or competition? Tree effects on grass biomass across a precipitation gradient.

Savanna ecosystems are dominated by two distinct plant life forms, grasses and trees, but the interactions between them are poorly understood. Here, we quantified the effects of isolated savanna trees on grass biomass as a function of distance from the base of the tree and tree height, across a precipitation gradient in the Kruger National Park, South Africa. Our results suggest that mean annual precipitation (MAP) mediates the nature of tree-grass interactions in these ecosystems, with the impact of trees on grass biomass shifting qualitatively between 550 and 737 mm MAP. Tree effects on grass biomass were facilitative in drier sites (MAP≤550 mm), with higher grass biomass observed beneath tree canopies than outside. In contrast, at the wettest site (MAP = 737 mm), grass biomass did not differ significantly beneath and outside tree canopies. Within this overall precipitation-driven pattern, tree height had positive effect on sub-canopy grass biomass at some sites, but these effects were weak and not consistent across the rainfall gradient. For a more synthetic understanding of tree-grass interactions in savannas, future studies should focus on isolating the different mechanisms by which trees influence grass biomass, both positively and negatively, and elucidate how their relative strengths change over broad environmental gradients.