Explaining the climate sensitivity of junction geometry in global river networks.

Rivers form characteristic branching patterns as they drain landscapes. Past work has shown that the angles formed between confluent channels at river junctions vary with climate aridity-but why this occurs is contested. We show how this climate sensitivity can be explained by the principle that river networks self-organize toward "optimal" configurations that minimize the hydraulic expenditure of energy. Starting from this energy minimization principle, optimal junction configurations can be calculated given three variables: the drainage area ratio of confluent channels, the scaling exponent relating channel gradient to drainage area (often called the concavity index), and the scaling exponent relating discharge to drainage area. Given that concavity and discharge-drainage area scaling vary with climate aridity, optimal junction angle theory can explain junction angle climate sensitivity. We extracted a global dataset of approximately 26 million junctions and show that the predictions of the optimal junction model are consistent with the sensitivity of junction angles to climate aridity. Our dataset includes not only the junction angle between confluent tributaries but also the "bending angles" between each tributary and the downstream channel, enabling us to quantify junction symmetry. As in the model, the geometric symmetry of real junctions is strongly controlled by the discharge ratio of the confluent channels. However, junctions with strongly asymmetric tributary drainage areas do not exhibit optimal geometries: minor tributaries show a tendency to join large rivers at the outside apex of large-scale bends.

Response of salt-marsh carbon accumulation to climate change.

About half of annual marine carbon burial takes place in shallow water ecosystems where geomorphic and ecological stability is driven by interactions between the flow of water, vegetation growth and sediment transport. Although the sensitivity of terrestrial and deep marine carbon pools to climate change has been studied for decades, there is little understanding of how coastal carbon accumulation rates will change and potentially feed back on climate. Here we develop a numerical model of salt marsh evolution, informed by recent measurements of productivity and decomposition, and demonstrate that competition between mineral sediment deposition and organic-matter accumulation determines the net impact of climate change on carbon accumulation in intertidal wetlands. We find that the direct impact of warming on soil carbon accumulation rates is more subtle than the impact of warming-driven sea level rise, although the impact of warming increases with increasing rates of sea level rise. Our simulations suggest that the net impact of climate change will be to increase carbon burial rates in the first half of the twenty-first century, but that carbon-climate feedbacks are likely to diminish over time.

Erosion rates as a potential bottom-up control of forest structural characteristics in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

The physical characteristics of landscapes place fundamental constraints on vegetation growth and ecosystem function. In actively eroding landscapes, many of these characteristics are controlled by long-term erosion rates: increased erosion rates generate steeper topography and reduce the depth and extent of weathering, limiting moisture storage capacity and impacting nutrient availability. Despite the potentially important bottom-up control that erosion rates place on substrate characteristics, the relationship between the two is largely unexplored. We investigate spatial variations in aboveground biomass (AGB) across a structurally diverse mixed coniferous/deciduous forest with an order of magnitude erosion-rate gradient in the Northern Californian Sierra Nevada, USA, using high resolution LiDAR data and field plots. Mean basin slope, a proxy for erosion rate, accounts for 32% of variance in AGB within our field area (P < 0.001), considerably outweighing the effects of mean annual precipitation, temperature, and bedrock lithology. This highlights erosion rate as a potentially important, but hitherto unappreciated, control on AGB and forest structure.

The Gamburtsev mountains and the origin and early evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Ice-sheet development in Antarctica was a result of significant and rapid global climate change about 34 million years ago. Ice-sheet and climate modelling suggest reductions in atmospheric carbon dioxide (less than three times the pre-industrial level of 280 parts per million by volume) that, in conjunction with the development of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, led to cooling and glaciation paced by changes in Earth's orbit. Based on the present subglacial topography, numerical models point to ice-sheet genesis on mountain massifs of Antarctica, including the Gamburtsev mountains at Dome A, the centre of the present ice sheet. Our lack of knowledge of the present-day topography of the Gamburtsev mountains means, however, that the nature of early glaciation and subsequent development of a continental-sized ice sheet are uncertain. Here we present radar information about the base of the ice at Dome A, revealing classic Alpine topography with pre-existing river valleys overdeepened by valley glaciers formed when the mean summer surface temperature was around 3 degrees C. This landscape is likely to have developed during the initial phases of Antarctic glaciation. According to Antarctic climate history (estimated from offshore sediment records) the Gamburtsev mountains are probably older than 34 million years and were the main centre for ice-sheet growth. Moreover, the landscape has most probably been preserved beneath the present ice sheet for around 14 million years.

Colluvium supply in humid regions limits the frequency of storm-triggered landslides.

Shallow landslides, triggered by extreme rainfall, are a significant hazard in mountainous landscapes. The hazard posed by shallow landslides depends on the availability and strength of colluvial material in landslide source areas and the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events. Here we investigate how the time taken to accumulate colluvium affects landslide triggering rate in the Southern Appalachian Mountains, USA and how this may affect future landslide hazards. We calculated the failure potential of 283 hollows by comparing colluvium depths to the minimum (critical) soil depth required for landslide initiation in each hollow. Our data show that most hollow soil depths are close to their critical depth, with 62% of hollows having soils that are too thin to fail. Our results, supported by numerical modeling, reveal that landslide frequency in many humid landscapes may be insensitive to projected changes in the frequency of intense rainfall events.

Hillslopes record the growth and decay of landscapes.

Earth's surface archives the combined history of tectonics and erosion, which tend to roughen landscapes, and sediment transport and deposition, which smooth them. We analyzed hillslope morphology in the tectonically active Dragon's Back Pressure Ridge in California, United States, to assess whether tectonic uplift history can be reconstructed using measurable attributes of hillslope features within landscapes. Hilltop curvature and hillslope relief mirror measured rates of vertical displacement caused by tectonic forcing, and their relationships are consistent with those expected when idealizing hillslope transport as a nonlinear diffusion process. Hilltop curvature lags behind relief in its response to changing erosion rates, allowing growing landscapes to be distinguished from decaying landscapes. Numerical modeling demonstrates that hillslope morphology may be used to infer changes in tectonic rates.