Sensitivity of air quality to vehicle ammonia emissions in the United States.

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates on-road vehicles emissions using the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES). We developed updated ammonia emission rates for MOVES based on road-side exhaust emission measurements of light-duty gasoline and heavy-duty diesel vehicles. The resulting nationwide on-road vehicle ammonia emissions are 1.8, 2.1, 1.8, and 1.6 times higher than the MOVES3 estimates for calendar years 2010, 2017, 2024, and 2035, respectively, primarily due to an increase in light-duty gasoline vehicle NH3 emission rates. We conducted an air quality simulation using the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQv5.3.2) model to evaluate the sensitivity of modeled ammonia and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations in calendar year 2017 using the updated on-road vehicle ammonia emissions. The average monthly urban ammonia ambient concentrations increased by up to 2.3 ppbv in January and 3.0 ppbv in July. The updated on-road NH3 emission rates resulted in better agreement of modeled ammonia concentrations with 2017 annual average ambient ammonia measurements, reducing model bias by 5.8 % in the Northeast region. Modeled average winter PM2.5 concentrations increased in urban areas, including enhancements of up to 0.5 µg/m3 in the northeast United States. The updated ammonia emission rates have been incorporated in MOVES4 and will be used in future versions of the NEI and EPA's modeling platforms.

Atypical femur fractures associated with bisphosphonate therapy: post-operative outcomes.

PURPOSE: Bisphosphonates are commonly used medication for the treatment of osteoporosis, and a well-established complication of this medication is bisphosphonate-associated atypical femur fractures (BAAFFs). The aim of this study was to assess the post-operative functional and radiographic outcomes of surgically treated BAAFFs. METHODS: An analysis of patients treated at a university-affiliated institution was performed. Patients who had undergone surgical fixation for a subtrochanteric or shaft of femur fracture which had been classified as atypical and treated with bisphosphonate therapy at the time of fracture were included. The outcome measures assessed included post-operative complications, length of stay, discharge destination, post-operative function, independence in activities of daily living (ADLs) and fracture union. RESULTS: Twenty patients were included in this study with a mean age of 75.2 years. The cohort was predominantly female. The average duration of bisphosphonate therapy was 7.35 years. Nine patients had contralateral bisphosphonate-related stress reactions at the time of their initial fracture and underwent prophylactic surgical intervention. The majority of patients received cephalomedullary nail fixation (95%) with more than half (65.0%) of the cohort experiencing one or more post-operative complications. The median length of stay was 6.5 days and 50% of the cohort required inpatient rehabilitation. At final review, independent mobilisation was recorded in only 10.0% of patients, and 70% of patients were dependent with their ADLs at their latest follow-up. Average follow-up was 8 months, and only six cases demonstrated union at the six-month review, with delayed union between 9 and 12 months being common. CONCLUSION: Patients with BAAFFs experience high rates of complications, record poor post-operative functional outcomes, and demonstrate a delayed time to union. Nearly half of our cohort had radiographic evidence of bilateral pathology.

Radiolucent line assessment in cemented stemmed total knee (RISK) arthroplasty: validation of a modernized classification system.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to implement and assess the inter- and intra-reliability of a modernized radiolucency assessment system; the Radiolucency In cemented Stemmed Knee (RISK) arthroplasty classification. Furthermore, we assessed the distribution of regions affected by radiolucency in patients undergoing stemmed cemented total knee arthroplasty. METHODS: Stemmed total knee arthroplasty cases over 7-year period at a single institution were retrospectively identified and reviewed. The RISK classification system identifies five zones in the femur and five zones in the tibia in both the anteroposterior (AP) and lateral planes. Post-operative and follow-up radiographs were scored for radiolucency by four blinded reviewers at two distinct time points four weeks apart. Reliability was assessed using the kappa statistic. A heat map was generated to demonstrate the reported regions of radiolucency. RESULTS: 29 cases (63 radiographs) of stemmed total knee arthroplasty were examined radiographically using the RISK classification system. Intra-reliability (0.83) and Inter-reliability (0.80) scores were both consistent with a strong level of agreement using the kappa scoring system. Radiolucency was more commonly associated with the tibial component (76.6%) compared to the femoral component (23.3%), and the tibial anterior-posterior (AP) region 1 (medial plateau) was the most affected (14.9%). CONCLUSION: The RISK classification system is a reliable assessment tool for evaluating radiolucency around stemmed total knee arthroplasty using defined zones on both AP and lateral radiographs. Zones of radiolucency identified in this study may be relevant to implant survival and corresponded well with zones of fixation, which may help inform future research.

Volatile Chemical Product Enhancements to Criteria Pollutants in the United States.

Volatile chemical products (VCPs) are a significant source of reactive organic carbon emissions in the United States with a substantial fraction (>20% by mass) serving as secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors. Here, we incorporate a new nationwide VCP inventory into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with VCP-specific updates to better model air quality impacts. Model results indicate that VCPs mostly enhance anthropogenic SOA in densely populated areas with population-weighted annual average SOA increasing 15-30% in Southern California and New York City due to VCP emissions (contribution of 0.2-0.5 µg m-3). Annually, VCP emissions enhance total population-weighted PM2.5 by ∼5% in California, ∼3% in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, and 1-2% in most other states. While the maximum daily 8 h ozone enhancements from VCP emissions are more modest, their influence can cause a several ppb increase on select days in major cities. Printing Inks, Cleaning Products, and Paints and Coatings product use categories contribute ∼75% to the modeled VCP-derived SOA and Cleaning Products, Paints and Coatings, and Personal Care Products contribute ∼81% to the modeled VCP-derived ozone. Overall, VCPs enhance multiple criteria pollutants throughout the United States with the largest impacts in urban cores.

National Exposure Models for Source-Specific Primary Particulate Matter Concentrations Using Aerosol Mass Spectrometry Data.

This paper investigates the feasibility of developing national empirical models to predict ambient concentrations of sparsely monitored air pollutants at high spatial resolution. We used a data set of cooking organic aerosol (COA) and hydrocarbon-like organic aerosol (HOA; traffic primary organic PM) measured using aerosol mass spectrometry across the continental United States. The monitoring locations were selected to span the national distribution of land-use and source-activity variables commonly used for land-use regression modeling (e.g., road length, restaurant count, etc.). The models explain about 60% of the spatial variability of the measured data (R2 0.63 for the COA model and 0.62 for the HOA model). Extensive cross-validation suggests that the models are robust with reasonable transferability. The models predict large urban-rural and intra-urban variability with hotspots in urban areas and along the road corridors. The predicted national concentration surfaces show reasonable spatial correlation with source-specific national chemical transport model (CTM) simulations (R2: 0.45 for COA, 0.4 for HOA). Our measured data, empirical models, and CTM predictions all show that COA concentrations are about two times higher than HOA. Since COA and HOA are important contributors to the intra-urban spatial variability of the total PM2.5, our results highlight the potential importance of controlling commercial cooking emissions for air quality management in the United States.

Characterizing the Air Emissions, Transport, and Deposition of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances from a Fluoropolymer Manufacturing Facility.

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) have been released into the environment for decades, yet contributions of air emissions to total human exposure, from inhalation and drinking water contamination via deposition, are poorly constrained. The atmospheric transport and fate of a PFAS mixture from a fluoropolymer manufacturing facility in North Carolina were investigated with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model applied at high resolution (1 km) and extending ∼150 km from the facility. Twenty-six explicit PFAS compounds, including GenX, were added to CMAQ using current best estimates of air emissions and relevant physicochemical properties. The new model, CMAQ-PFAS, predicts that 5% by mass of total emitted PFAS and 2.5% of total GenX are deposited within ∼150 km of the facility, with the remainder transported out. Modeled air concentrations of total GenX and total PFAS around the facility can reach 24.6 and 8500 ng m-3 but decrease to ∼0.1 and ∼10 ng m-3 at 35 km downwind, respectively. We find that compounds with acid functionality have higher deposition due to enhanced water solubility and pH-driven partitioning to aqueous media. To our knowledge, this is the first modeling study of the fate of a comprehensive, chemically resolved suite of PFAS air emissions from a major manufacturing source.

Assessing PM2.5 Model Performance for the Conterminous U.S. with Comparison to Model Performance Statistics from 2007-2015.

Previous studies have proposed that model performance statistics from earlier photochemical grid model (PGM) applications can be used to benchmark performance in new PGM applications. A challenge in implementing this approach is that limited information is available on consistently calculated model performance statistics that vary spatially and temporally over the U.S. Here, a consistent set of model performance statistics are calculated by year, season, region, and monitoring network for PM2.5 and its major components using simulations from versions 4.7.1-5.2.1 of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for years 2007-2015. The multi-year set of statistics is then used to provide quantitative context for model performance results from the 2015 simulation. Model performance for PM2.5 organic carbon in the 2015 simulation ranked high (i.e., favorable performance) in the multi-year dataset, due to factors including recent improvements in biogenic secondary organic aerosol and atmospheric mixing parameterizations in CMAQ. Model performance statistics for the Northwest region in 2015 ranked low (i.e., unfavorable performance) for many species in comparison to the 2007-2015 dataset. This finding motivated additional investigation that suggests a need for improved speciation of wildfire PM2.5emissions and modeling of boundary layer dynamics near water bodies. Several limitations were identified in the approach of benchmarking new model performance results with previous results. Since performance statistics vary widely by region and season, a simple set of national performance benchmarks (e.g., one or two targets per species and statistic) as proposed previously are inadequate to assess model performance throughout the U.S. Also, trends in model performance statistics for sulfate over the 2007 to 2015 period suggest that model performance for earlier years may not be a useful reference for assessing model performance for recent years in some cases. Comparisons of results from the 2015 base case with results from five sensitivity simulations demonstrated the importance of parameterizations of NH3 surface exchange, organic aerosol volatility and production, and emissions of crustal cations for predicting PM2.5 species concentrations.

Denver ED Trauma Organ Failure Score predicts healthcare resource utilization in adult trauma patients.

BACKGROUND: Early identification of trauma patients who need specialized healthcare resources may facilitate goal-directed resuscitation and effective secondary triage. OBJECTIVE: To estimate associations between Denver Emergency Department (ED) Trauma Organ Failure (TOF) Score and healthcare resource utilization. METHODS: Retrospective study of adult trauma patients at Denver Health Medical Center. The outcome was resource utilization including: intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay (LOS), hospital LOS, procedures, and costs. Multivariable regression analyses were used to estimate associations between moderate- or high-risk patients, as determined by the Denver ED TOF Score, and healthcare resource utilization. RESULTS: We included 3000 patients with a median age of 42 (IQR 27-56) years, 71% male, median injury severity score 9 (IQR 5-16), and 83% blunt mechanism. Among the cohort, 1379 patients (46%) were admitted to the ICU and 122 (4%) died. The adjusted relative risk for high- and moderate-risk as compared to low risk for number of procedures performed was 2.31 (95% CI 2.07-2.57) and 1.80 (95% CI 1.59-2.03) respectively; ICU LOS was 2.87 (95% CI 2.70-3.05) and 1.71 (95% CI 1.60-1.83) respectively; hospital LOS was 3.33 (95% CI 3.21-3.45) and 1.97 (95% CI 1.90-2.05) respectively. The adjusted geometric mean for high-, moderate-, and low-risk for costs was $48,881 (95% CI $43,799-$54,552), $27,890 (95% CI $25,460-$30,551), and $12,983 (95% CI $12,493-$13,492), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The Denver ED TOF Score predicts healthcare resource utilization, and is a useful bedside tool to identify patients early after injury that are likely to require significant healthcare resources and specialized trauma care.

Impacts of Future European Emission Reductions on Aerosol Particle Number Concentrations Accounting for Effects of Ammonia, Amines, and Organic Species.

Although they are currently unregulated, atmospheric ultrafine particles (<100 nm) pose health risks because of, e.g., their capability to penetrate deep into the respiratory system. Ultrafine particles, often minor contributors to atmospheric particulate mass, typically dominate aerosol particle number concentrations. We simulated the response of particle number concentrations over Europe to recent estimates of future emission reductions of aerosol particles and their precursors. We used the chemical transport model PMCAMx-UF, with novel updates including state-of-the-art descriptions of ammonia and dimethylamine new particle formation (NPF) pathways and the condensation of organic compounds onto particles. These processes had notable impacts on atmospheric particle number concentrations. All three emission scenarios (current legislation, optimized emissions, and maximum technically feasible reductions) resulted in substantial (10-50%) decreases in median particle number concentrations over Europe. Consistent reductions were predicted in Central Europe, while Northern Europe exhibited smaller reductions or even increased concentrations. Motivated by the improved NPF descriptions for ammonia and methylamines, we placed special focus on the potential to improve air quality by reducing agricultural emissions, which are a major source of these species. Agricultural emission controls showed promise in reducing ultrafine particle number concentrations, although the change is nonlinear with particle size.

What Is the Impact of Advancing Age on the Outcomes of Total Hip Arthroplasty?

BACKGROUND: The global demand for total hip arthroplasty (THA) is increasing, underscoring its moniker as the "operation of the century." However, debate still exists as to whether the elderly who undergo the operation achieve the same outcomes as those younger. In this study, we sought to investigate the association between older age and the risks and benefits of THA. METHODS: In this study, we aimed to compare the risks and benefits of THA of those aged ≥80 years vs those <80 years. We analyzed the physical status component of the Short-Form 12 Health Survey, complications within 12 months, all-cause mortality, length of hospital stay (LOS), and discharge to rehabilitation in 2457 cases of primary THA using multivariate modeling. RESULTS: There was no difference in improvement of those older vs the younger group in physical functioning. However, the older group had 2.87 times greater odds of experiencing a post-operative medical complication and 3.49 times the rate of all-cause mortality (P < .001). Additionally, the older group encountered an additional median 0.21-day increase in LOS and had 3.93 times greater odds of being discharged to rehabilitation rather than home (P < .001). We were unable to demonstrate any difference between groups in terms of post-operative surgical or wound-related complications. CONCLUSION: The elderly stand to gain equivalent benefits from THA as those younger in terms of physical functioning. However, this benefit needs to be balanced against the increased risk of post-operative medical complications, increased LOS, increased requirement for rehabilitation, and ultimately the increased risk of mortality.

Predictions of PFAS regional-scale atmospheric deposition and ambient air exposure.

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a large class of human-made compounds that have contaminated the global environment. One environmental entry point for PFAS is via atmospheric emission. Air releases can impact human health through multiple routes, including direct inhalation and contamination of drinking water following air deposition. In this work, we convert the reference dose (RfD) underlying the United States Environmental Protection Agency's GenX drinking water Health Advisory to an inhalation screening level and compare to predicted PFAS and GenX air concentrations from a fluorochemical manufacturing facility in Eastern North Carolina. We find that the area around the facility experiences ~15 days per year of GenX concentrations above the inhalation screening level we derive. We investigate the sensitivity of model predictions to assumptions regarding model spatial resolution, emissions temporal profiles, and knowledge of air emission chemical composition. Decreasing the chemical specificity of PFAS emissions has the largest impact on deposition predictions with domain-wide total deposition varying by as much as 250 % for total PFAS. However, predicted domain-wide mean and median air concentrations varied by <18 % over all scenarios tested for total PFAS. Other model features like emission temporal variability and model spatial resolution had weaker impacts on predicted PFAS deposition.

Reactive organic carbon air emissions from mobile sources in the United States.

Mobile sources are responsible for a substantial controllable portion of the reactive organic carbon (ROC) emitted to the atmosphere, especially in urban environments of the United States. We update existing methods for calculating mobile source organic particle and vapor emissions in the United States with over a decade of laboratory data that parameterize the volatility and organic aerosol (OA) potential of emissions from on-road vehicles, nonroad engines, aircraft, marine vessels, and locomotives. We find that existing emission factor information from Teflon filters combined with quartz filters collapses into simple relationships and can be used to reconstruct the complete volatility distribution of ROC emissions. This new approach consists of source-specific filter artifact corrections and state-of-the-science speciation including explicit intermediate-volatility organic compounds (IVOCs), yielding the first bottom-up volatility-resolved inventory of US mobile source emissions. Using the Community Multiscale Air Quality model, we estimate mobile sources account for 20 %-25 % of the IVOC concentrations and 4.4 %-21.4 % of ambient OA. The updated emissions and air quality model reduce biases in predicting fine-particle organic carbon in winter, spring, and autumn throughout the United States (4.3 %-11.3 % reduction in normalized bias). We identify key uncertain parameters that align with current state-of-the-art research measurement challenges.

Simulations of smog-chamber experiments using the two-dimensional volatility basis set: linear oxygenated precursors.

We use a two-dimensional volatility basis set (2D-VBS) box model to simulate secondary organic aerosol (SOA) mass yields of linear oxygenated molecules: n-tridecanal, 2- and 7-tridecanone, 2- and 7-tridecanol, and n-pentadecane. A hybrid model with explicit, a priori treatment of the first-generation products for each precursor molecule, followed by a generic 2D-VBS mechanism for later-generation chemistry, results in excellent model-measurement agreement. This strongly confirms that the 2D-VBS mechanism is a predictive tool for SOA modeling but also suggests that certain important first-generation products for major primary SOA precursors should be treated explicitly for optimal SOA predictions.

Pre-pyrolysis metal and base addition catalyzes pore development and improves organic micropollutant adsorption to pine biochar.

Biochars were produced from pine feedstock pretreated with aqueous base, NaOH, at pH 9 and 11, and alkali and alkaline earth metals (AAEMs) Na, K, Ca, and Mg at 10-3 and 1 M. The effects of base and AAEM feedstock pretreatment on biochar surface area, pore size distribution, and adsorption capacity of two organic micropollutants (OMPs), 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid and sulfamethoxazole, from surface water with background dissolved organic matter (DOM) were evaluated. Base pretreatment significantly increased surface area within micropores (<2 nm diameter). AAEM pretreatment caused pore widening, increasing surface area within pores >2 nm in diameter. The catalytic activity of AAEMs, assessed by generation of non-micropore surface area, decreased in the following order: Ca > K > Na > Mg. All pretreated biochars outperformed untreated biochar for OMP adsorption. Biochar pretreated by aqueous base at pH 11 showed over an order of magnitude increase in OMP adsorption, nearly matching the performance of commercial activated carbon. OMP adsorption from surface water was positively correlated with biochar micropore surface area and negatively correlated with non-micropore surface area, which was linked to higher levels of DOM competition. Base and AAEM pretreatment of biochar feedstocks can increase OMP adsorption for water treatment applications by tuning pore structure and surface area.

Emissions of Carbonaceous Particulate Matter and Ultrafine Particles from Vehicles-A Scientific Review in a Cross-Cutting Context of Air Pollution and Climate Change.

Airborne particulate matter (PM) is a pollutant of concern not only because of its adverse effects on human health but also on visibility and the radiative budget of the atmosphere. PM can be considered as a sum of solid/liquid species covering a wide range of particle sizes with diverse chemical composition. Organic aerosols may be emitted (primary organic aerosols, POA), or formed in the atmosphere following reaction of volatile organic compounds (secondary organic aerosols, SOA), but some of these compounds may partition between the gas and aerosol phases depending upon ambient conditions. This review focuses on carbonaceous PM and gaseous precursors emitted by road traffic, including ultrafine particles (UFP) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) that are clearly linked to the evolution and formation of carbonaceous species. Clearly, the solid fraction of PM has been reduced during the last two decades, with the implementation of after-treatment systems abating approximately 99% of primary solid particle mass concentrations. However, the role of brown carbon and its radiative effect on climate and the generation of ultrafine particles by nucleation of organic vapour during the dilution of the exhaust remain unclear phenomena and will need further investigation. The increasing role of gasoline vehicles on carbonaceous particle emissions and formation is also highlighted, particularly through the chemical and thermodynamic evolution of organic gases and their propensity to produce particles. The remaining carbon-containing particles from brakes, tyres and road wear will still be a problem even in a future of full electrification of the vehicle fleet. Some key conclusions and recommendations are also proposed to support the decision makers in view of the next regulations on vehicle emissions worldwide.

Human-health impacts of controlling secondary air pollution precursors.

Exposure to ozone and fine particle (PM2.5) air pollution results in premature death. These pollutants are predominantly secondary in nature and can form from nitrogen oxides (NOX), sulfur oxides (SOX), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Predicted health benefits for emission reduction scenarios often incompletely account for VOCs as precursors as well as the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) component of PM2.5. Here, we show that anthropogenic VOC emission reductions are more than twice as effective as equivalent fractional reductions of SOX or NOX at reducing air pollution-associated cardiorespiratory mortality in the United States. A 25% reduction in anthropogenic VOC emissions from 2016 levels is predicted to avoid 13,000 premature deaths per year, and most (85%) of the VOC-reduction benefits result from reduced SOA with the remainder from ozone. While NOX (-5.7 ± 0.2 % yr-1) and SOX (-12 ± 1 % yr-1) emissions have declined precipitously across the U.S. since 2002, anthropogenic VOC emissions (-1.8 ± 0.3 % yr-1) and concentrations of non-methane organic carbon (-2.4 ± 1.0 % yr-1) have changed less. This work indicates preferentially controlling VOCs could yield significant benefits to human health.

Improving surface PM2.5 forecasts in the United States using an ensemble of chemical transport model outputs: 2. bias correction with satellite data for rural areas.

This work serves as the second of a two-part study to improve surface PM2.5 forecasts in the continental U.S. through the integrated use of multi-satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) products (MODIS Terra/Aqua and VIIRS DT/DB), multi chemical transport model (CTM) (GEOS-Chem, WRF-Chem and CMAQ) outputs and ground observations. In part I of the study, a multi-model ensemble Kalman filter (KF) technique using three CTM outputs and ground observations was developed to correct forecast bias and generate a single best forecast of PM2.5 for next day over non-rural areas that have surface PM2.5 measurements in the proximity of 125 km. Here, with AOD data, we extended the bias correction into rural areas where the closest air quality monitoring station is at least 125 - 300 km away. First, we ensembled all of satellite AOD products to yield the single best AOD. Second, we corrected daily PM2.5 in rural areas from multiple models through the AOD spatial pattern between these areas and non-rural areas, referred to as "extended ground truth" or EGT, for today. Lastly, we applied the KF technique to update the bias in the forecast for next day using the EGT. Our results find that the ensemble of bias-corrected daily PM2.5 from three models for both today and next day show the best performance. Together, the two-part study develops a multi-model and multi-AOD bias correction technique that has the potential to improve PM2.5 forecasts in both rural and non-rural areas in near real time, and be readily implemented at state levels.

Case Report: Reconstruction After Anterior Pubic Hemipelvectomy.

We report on a case of a large atypical cartilaginous tumor of the pelvis and its novel surgical resection with an anterior hemipelvectomy and reconstruction with an iliac crest graft. Surgical intervention is the mainstay treatment of pelvic chondrosarcomas. However, there have been reports of concern regarding preventing pelvic visceral herniation and adequately reconstructing the pelvis. This report is unique within the literature and has yielded good functional outcomes whilst achieving satisfactory surgical margins and minimizing morbidity.

An Energy Efficient Thermally Regulated Optical Spectroscopy Cell for Lab-on-Chip Devices: Applied to Nitrate Detection.

Reagent-based colorimetric analyzers often heat the fluid under analysis for improved reaction kinetics, whilst also aiming to minimize energy use per measurement. Here, a novel method of conserving heat energy on such microfluidic systems is presented. Our design reduces heat transfer to the environment by surrounding the heated optical cell on four sides with integral air pockets, thereby realizing an insulated and suspended bridge structure. Our design was simulated in COMSOL Multiphysics and verified in a polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) device. We evaluate the effectiveness of the insulated design by comparing it to a non-insulated cell. For temperatures up to 55 °C, the average power consumption was reduced by 49.3% in the simulation and 40.2% in the experiment. The designs were then characterized with the vanadium and Griess reagent assay for nitrate at 35 °C. Nitrate concentrations from 0.25 µM to 50 µM were tested and yielded the expected linear relationship with a limit of detection of 20 nM. We show a reduction in energy consumption from 195 J to 119 J per 10 min measurement using only 4 µL of fluid. Efficient heating on-chip will have broad applicability to numerous colorimetric assays.

Predicting the Nonlinear Response of PM2.5 and Ozone to Precursor Emission Changes with a Response Surface Model.

Reducing PM2.5 and ozone concentrations is important to protect human health and the environment. Chemical transport models, such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, are valuable tools for exploring policy options for improving air quality but are computationally expensive. Here, we statistically fit an efficient polynomial function in a response surface model (pf-RSM) to CMAQ simulations over the eastern U.S. for January and July 2016. The pf-RSM predictions were evaluated using out-of-sample CMAQ simulations and used to examine the nonlinear response of air quality to emission changes. Predictions of the pf-RSM are in good agreement with the out-of-sample CMAQ simulations, with some exceptions for cases with anthropogenic emission reductions approaching 100%. NOX emission reductions were more effective for reducing PM2.5 and ozone concentrations than SO2, NH3, or traditional VOC emission reductions. NH3 emission reductions effectively reduced nitrate concentrations in January but increased secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations in July. More work is needed on SOA formation under conditions of low NH3 emissions to verify the responses of SOA to NH3 emission changes predicted here. Overall, the pf-RSM performs well in the eastern U.S., but next-generation RSMs based on deep learning may be needed to meet the computational requirements of typical regulatory applications.