Consistent scaling of inbreeding depression in space and time in a house sparrow metapopulation.

Inbreeding may increase the extinction risk of small populations. Yet, studies using modern genomic tools to investigate inbreeding depression in nature have been limited to single populations, and little is known about the dynamics of inbreeding depression in subdivided populations over time. Natural populations often experience different environmental conditions and differ in demographic history and genetic composition, characteristics that can affect the severity of inbreeding depression. We utilized extensive long-term data on more than 3,100 individuals from eight islands in an insular house sparrow metapopulation to examine the generality of inbreeding effects. Using genomic estimates of realized inbreeding, we discovered that inbred individuals had lower survival probabilities and produced fewer recruiting offspring than noninbred individuals. Inbreeding depression, measured as the decline in fitness-related traits per unit inbreeding, did not vary appreciably among populations or with time. As a consequence, populations with more resident inbreeding (due to their demographic history) paid a higher total fitness cost, evidenced by a larger variance in fitness explained by inbreeding within these populations. Our results are in contrast to the idea that effects of inbreeding generally depend on ecological factors and genetic differences among populations, and expand the understanding of inbreeding depression in natural subdivided populations.

Decomposing demographic contributions to the effective population size with moose as a case study.

Levels of random genetic drift are influenced by demographic factors, such as mating system, sex ratio and age structure. The effective population size (Ne ) is a useful measure for quantifying genetic drift. Evaluating relative contributions of different demographic factors to Ne is therefore important to identify what makes a population vulnerable to loss of genetic variation. Until recently, models for estimating Ne have required many simplifying assumptions, making them unsuitable for this task. Here, using data from a small, harvested moose population, we demonstrate the use of a stochastic demographic framework allowing for fluctuations in both population size and age distribution to estimate and decompose the total demographic variance and hence the ratio of effective to total population size (Ne /N) into components originating from sex, age, survival and reproduction. We not only show which components contribute most to Ne /N currently, but also which components have the greatest potential for changing Ne /N. In this relatively long-lived polygynous system we show that Ne /N is most sensitive to the demographic variance of older males, and that both reproductive autocorrelations (i.e., a tendency for the same individuals to be successful several years in a row) and covariance between survival and reproduction contribute to decreasing Ne /N (increasing genetic drift). These conditions are common in nature and can be caused by common hunting strategies. Thus, the framework presented here has great potential to increase our understanding of the demographic processes that contribute to genetic drift and viability of populations, and to inform management decisions.

Sensitivity analysis of effective population size to demographic parameters in house sparrow populations.

The ratio between the effective and the census population size, Ne/N, is an important measure of the long-term viability and sustainability of a population. Understanding which demographic processes that affect Ne/N most will improve our understanding of how genetic drift and the probability of fixation of alleles is affected by demography. This knowledge may also be of vital importance in management of endangered populations and species. Here, we use data from 13 natural populations of house sparrow (Passer domesticus) in Norway to calculate the demographic parameters that determine Ne/N. Using the global variance-based Sobol' method for the sensitivity analyses, we found that Ne/N was most sensitive to demographic variance, especially among older individuals. Furthermore, the individual reproductive values (that determine the demographic variance) were most sensitive to variation in fecundity. Our results draw attention to the applicability of sensitivity analyses in population management and conservation. For population management aiming to reduce the loss of genetic variation, a sensitivity analysis may indicate the demographic parameters towards which resources should be focused. The result of such an analysis may depend on the life history and mating system of the population or species under consideration, because the vital rates and sex-age classes that Ne/N is most sensitive to may change accordingly.

Effects of population characteristics and structure on estimates of effective population size in a house sparrow metapopulation.

Effective population size (N(e)) is a key parameter to understand evolutionary processes and the viability of endangered populations as it determines the rate of genetic drift and inbreeding. Low Ne can lead to inbreeding depression and reduced population adaptability. In this study, we estimated contemporary N(e) using genetic estimators (LDNE, ONeSAMP, MLNE and CoNe) as well as a demographic estimator in a natural insular house sparrow metapopulation. We investigated whether population characteristics (population size, sex ratio, immigration rate, variance in population size and population growth rate) explained variation within and among populations in the ratio of effective to census population size (N(e)/N(c)). In general, N(e)/N(c) ratios increased with immigration rates. Genetic N(e) was much larger than demographic N(e), probably due to a greater effect of immigration on genetic than demographic processes in local populations. Moreover, although estimates of genetic N(e) seemed to track N(c) quite well, the genetic N(e) -estimates were often larger than Nc within populations. Estimates of genetic N(e) for the metapopulation were however within the expected range (

Characterizing morphological (co)variation using structural equation models: Body size, allometric relationships and evolvability in a house sparrow metapopulation.

Body size plays a key role in the ecology and evolution of all organisms. Therefore, quantifying the sources of morphological (co)variation, dependent and independent of body size, is of key importance when trying to understand and predict responses to selection. We combine structural equation modeling with quantitative genetics analyses to study morphological (co)variation in a meta-population of house sparrows (Passer domesticus). As expected, we found evidence of a latent variable "body size," causing genetic and environmental covariation between morphological traits. Estimates of conditional evolvability show that allometric relationships constrain the independent evolution of house sparrow morphology. We also found spatial differences in general body size and its allometric relationships. On islands where birds are more dispersive and mobile, individuals were smaller and had proportionally longer wings for their body size. Although on islands where sparrows are more sedentary and nest in dense colonies, individuals were larger and had proportionally longer tarsi for their body size. We corroborated these results using simulations and show that our analyses produce unbiased allometric slope estimates. This study highlights that in the short term allometric relationships may constrain phenotypic evolution, but that in the long term selection pressures can also shape allometric relationships.

Effective size of density-dependent populations in fluctuating environments.

Reliable estimates of effective population size Ne are of central importance in population genetics and evolutionary biology. For populations that fluctuate in size, harmonic mean population size is commonly used as a proxy for (multi-) generational effective size. This assumes no effects of density dependence on the ratio between effective and actual population size, which limits its potential application. Here, we introduce density dependence on vital rates in a demographic model of variance effective size. We derive an expression for the ratio Ne/N in a density-regulated population in a fluctuating environment. We show by simulations that yearly genetic drift is accurately predicted by our model, and not proportional to 1/(2N) as assumed by the harmonic mean model, where N is the total population size of mature individuals. We find a negative relationship between Ne/N and N. For a given N, the ratio depends on variance in reproductive success and the degree of resource limitation acting on the population growth rate. Finally, our model indicate that environmental stochasticity may affect Ne/N not only through fluctuations in N, but also for a given N at a given time. Our results show that estimates of effective population size must include effects of density dependence and environmental stochasticity.