Effectiveness of a symptom-clinic intervention delivered by general practitioners with an extended role for people with multiple and persistent physical symptoms in England: the Multiple Symptoms Study 3 pragmatic, multicentre, parallel-group, individually randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: People with multiple and persistent physical symptoms have impaired quality of life and poor experiences of health care. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a community-based symptom-clinic intervention in people with multiple and persistent physical symptoms, hypothesising that this symptoms clinic plus usual care would be superior to usual care only. METHODS: The Multiple Symptoms Study 3 was a pragmatic, multicentre, parallel-group, individually randomised controlled trial conducted in 108 general practices in the UK National Health Service in four regions of England between Dec 6, 2018, and June 30, 2023. Participants were individually randomised (1:1) to the symptom-clinic intervention plus usual care or to usual care only via a computer-generated, pseudo-random list stratified by trial centre. Allocation was done by the trial statistician and concealed with a centralised, web-based randomisation system; masking participants was not possible due to the nature of the intervention. The symptom-clinic intervention was a sequence of up to four medical consultations that aimed to elicit a detailed clinical history, fully hear and validate the participant, offer rational explanations for symptoms, and assist the participant to develop ways of managing their symptoms; it was delivered by general practitioners with an extended role. The primary outcome was Patient Health Questionnaire-15 (PHQ-15) score 52 weeks after randomisation, analysed by intention to treat. The trial is registered on the ISRCTN registry (ISRCTN57050216). FINDINGS: 354 participants were randomly assigned; 178 (50%) were assigned to receive the community-based symptoms clinic plus usual care and 176 (50%) were assigned to receive usual care only. At the primary-outcome point of 52 weeks, PHQ-15 scores were 14·1 (SD 3·7) in the group receiving usual care and 12·2 (4·5) in the group receiving the intervention. The adjusted between-group difference of -1·82 (95% CI -2·67 to -0·97) was statistically significantly in favour of the intervention group (p<0·0001). There were 39 adverse events in the group receiving usual care and 36 adverse events in the group receiving the intervention. There were no statistically significant between-group differences in the proportion of participants who had non-serious adverse events (-0·03, 95% CI -0·11 to 0·05) or serious adverse events (0·02, -0·02 to 0·07). No serious adverse event was deemed to be related to the trial intervention. INTERPRETATION: Our symptom-clinic intervention, which focused on explaining persistent symptoms to participants in order to support self-management, led to sustained improvement in multiple and persistent physical symptoms. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Understanding patient barriers and facilitators to uptake of lung screening using low dose computed tomography: a mixed methods scoping review of the current literature.

BACKGROUND: Targeted lung cancer screening is effective in reducing mortality by upwards of twenty percent. However, screening is not universally available and uptake is variable and socially patterned. Understanding screening behaviour is integral to designing a service that serves its population and promotes equitable uptake. We sought to review the literature to identify barriers and facilitators to screening to inform the development of a pilot lung screening study in Scotland. METHODS: We used Arksey and O'Malley's scoping review methodology and PRISMA-ScR framework to identify relevant literature to meet the study aims. Qualitative, quantitative and mixed methods primary studies published between January 2000 and May 2021 were identified and reviewed by two reviewers for inclusion, using a list of search terms developed by the study team and adapted for chosen databases. RESULTS: Twenty-one articles met the final inclusion criteria. Articles were published between 2003 and 2021 and came from high income countries. Following data extraction and synthesis, findings were organised into four categories: Awareness of lung screening, Enthusiasm for lung screening, Barriers to lung screening, and Facilitators or ways of promoting uptake of lung screening. Awareness of lung screening was low while enthusiasm was high. Barriers to screening included fear of a cancer diagnosis, low perceived risk of lung cancer as well as practical barriers of cost, travel and time off work. Being health conscious, provider endorsement and seeking reassurance were all identified as facilitators of screening participation. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding patient reported barriers and facilitators to lung screening can help inform the implementation of future lung screening pilots and national lung screening programmes.

Optimizing the implementation of lung cancer screening in Scotland: Focus group participant perspectives in the LUNGSCOT study.

INTRODUCTION: Targeted lung cancer screening is effective in reducing lung cancer and all-cause mortality according to major trials in the United Kingdom and Europe. However, the best ways of implementing screening in local communities requires an understanding of the population the programme will serve. We undertook a study to explore the views of those potentially eligible for, and to identify potential barriers and facilitators to taking part in, lung screening, to inform the development of a feasibility study. METHODS: Men and women aged 45-70, living in urban and rural Scotland, and either self-reported people who smoke or who recently quit, were invited to take part in the study via research agency Taylor McKenzie. Eleven men and 14 women took part in three virtual focus groups exploring their views on lung screening. Focus group transcripts were transcribed and analysed using thematic analysis, assisted by QSR NVivo. FINDINGS: Three overarching themes were identified: (1) Knowledge, awareness and acceptability of lung screening, (2) Barriers and facilitators to screening and (3) Promoting screening and implementation ideas. Participants were largely supportive of lung screening in principle and described the importance of the early detection of cancer. Emotional and psychological concerns as well as system-level and practical issues were discussed as posing barriers and facilitators to lung screening. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding the views of people potentially eligible for a lung health check can usefully inform the development of a further study to test the feasibility and acceptability of lung screening in Scotland. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: The LUNGSCOT study has convened a patient advisory group to advise on all aspects of study development and implementation. Patient representatives commented on the focus group study design, study materials and ethics application, and two representatives read the focus group transcripts.

Economic evaluation of interventions for the treatment of asthma in children: A systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: This systematic review aimed to identify and critique full economic evaluations (EEs) of childhood asthma treatments with the intention to guide researchers and commissioners of pediatric asthma services toward potentially cost-effective strategies. METHODS: "MEDLINE," "Embase," "EconLit," "NHS EED," and "CEA" databases were searched to identify relevant EEs published between 2005 and May 2017. Quality of included studies was assessed with a published checklist. RESULTS: Eighteen studies were identified and comprised one cost-benefit analysis, 11 cost-effectiveness analyses, one cost-minimization analysis, and six cost-utility analyses. Treatments included pharmaceutical (n = 11) and non-pharmaceutical (n = 7) interventions. Fourteen studies identified cost-effective strategies. The quality of the studies varied and there were uncertainties due to the methods and relevance of data used. CONCLUSION: Good-quality economic evaluation studies of pediatric asthma treatments are lacking. EE of new technologies adapted to local settings is recommended and can result in cost savings.

Cost-utility of maintained physical activity and physiotherapy in the management of distal arm pain: an economic evaluation of data from a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Arm pain is common, costly to health services and society. Physiotherapy referral is standard management, and while awaiting treatment, advice is often given to rest, but the evidence base is weak. OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of advice to remain active (AA) versus advice to rest (AR); and immediate physiotherapy (IP) versus usual care (waiting list) physiotherapy (UCP). METHODS: Twenty-six-week within-trial economic evaluation (538 participants aged ≥18 years randomized to usual care, i.e. AA (n = 178), AR (n = 182) or IP (n = 178). Regression analysis estimated differences in mean costs and Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were generated. Primary analysis comprised the 193 patients with complete resource use (UK NHS perspective) and EQ-5D data. Sensitivity analysis investigated uncertainty. RESULTS: Baseline-adjusted cost differences were £88 [95% confidence interval (CI): -14, 201) AA versus AR; -£14 (95% CI: -87, 66) IP versus UCP. Baseline-adjusted QALY differences were 0.0095 (95% CI: -0.0140, 0.0344) AA versus AR; 0.0143 (95% CI: -0.0077, 0.0354) IP versus UCP. There was a 71 and 89% probability that AA (versus AR) and IP (versus UCP) were the most cost-effective option using a threshold of £20,000 per additional QALY.  The results were robust in the sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSION: The difference in mean costs and mean QALYs between the competing strategies was small and not statistically significant. However, decision-makers may judge that IP was not shown to be any more effective than delayed treatment, and was no more costly than delayed physiotherapy. AA is preferable to one that encourages AR, as it is more effective and more likely to be cost-effective than AR.

Comparing inpatient management of chronic pelvic pain flares before and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Abstract: Patients with chronic pelvic pain (CPP) may experience pain exacerbations requiring hospital admissions. Due to the effects of backlogged elective surgeries and outpatient gynaecology appointments resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, we hypothesised that there would be an increased number of women admitted with CPP flares. We conducted a retrospective review of all acute gynaecology admissions at the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh from July to December 2018 (pre-COVID) and 2021 (post-COVID lockdown). We collected information on the proportion of emergency admissions due to CPP, inpatient investigations and subsequent management. Average total indicative hospital inpatient costs for women with CPP were calculated using NHS National Cost Collection data guidance. There was no significant difference in the number of emergency admissions due to pelvic pain before (153/507) and after (160/461) the COVID-19 pandemic. As high as 33 and 31% had a background history of CPP, respectively. Across both timepoints, investigations in women with CPP had low diagnostic yield: <25% had abnormal imaging findings and 0% had positive vaginal swab cultures. Women with CPP received significantly more inpatient morphine, pain team reviews and were more likely to be discharged with strong opioids. Total yearly inpatient costs were £170,104 and £179,156 in 2018 and 2021, respectively. Overall, emergency admission rates for managing CPP flares was similar before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Inpatient resource use for women with CPP remains high, investigations have low diagnostic yield and frequent instigation of opiates on discharge may risk dependence. Improved community care of CPP is needed to reduce emergency gynaecology resource utilisation. Lay summary: Existing treatments for chronic pelvic pain (CPP) and endometriosis focus on surgery or hormone medication, but these are often ineffective or associated with unacceptable side-effects. As a result, women continue to experience chronic pain and often have 'flares' of worsening pain that may lead to hospital admission. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in backlogged gynaecology clinics and surgeries. The aim of this study was to compare the management of emergency pelvic pain admissions for women with CPP before and after COVID-19. We also aimed to better understand their in-hospital management and estimate their hospital length of stay costs. We did not find an increase in CPP patients admitted for pelvic pain flares after the COVID-19 lockdown. Women with CPP often undergo multiple hospital tests and are often prescribed with strong pain medications which can cause long-term problems. Efforts are needed to improve long-term pain management for women with CPP.

Feasibility of comparing medical management and surgery (with neurosurgery or stereotactic radiosurgery) with medical management alone in people with symptomatic brain cavernoma - protocol for the Cavernomas: A Randomised Effectiveness (CARE) pilot trial.

INTRODUCTION: The top research priority for cavernoma, identified by a James Lind Alliance Priority setting partnership was 'Does treatment (with neurosurgery or stereotactic radiosurgery) or no treatment improve outcome for people diagnosed with a cavernoma?' This pilot randomised controlled trial (RCT) aims to determine the feasibility of answering this question in a main phase RCT. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will perform a pilot phase, parallel group, pragmatic RCT involving approximately 60 children or adults with mental capacity, resident in the UK or Ireland, with an unresected symptomatic brain cavernoma. Participants will be randomised by web-based randomisation 1:1 to treatment with medical management and with surgery (neurosurgery or stereotactic radiosurgery) versus medical management alone, stratified by prerandomisation preference for type of surgery. In addition to 13 feasibility outcomes, the primary clinical outcome is symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage or new persistent/progressive focal neurological deficit measured at 6 monthly intervals. An integrated QuinteT Recruitment Intervention (QRI) evaluates screening logs, audio recordings of recruitment discussions, and interviews with recruiters and patients/parents/carers to identify and address barriers to participation. A Patient Advisory Group has codesigned the study and will oversee its progress. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the Yorkshire and The Humber-Leeds East Research Ethics Committee (21/YH/0046). We will submit manuscripts to peer-reviewed journals, describing the findings of the QRI and the Cavernomas: A Randomised Evaluation (CARE) pilot trial. We will present at national specialty meetings. We will disseminate a plain English summary of the findings of the CARE pilot trial to participants and public audiences with input from, and acknowledgement of, the Patient Advisory Group. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN41647111.

Modeling the impact of screening policy and screening compliance on incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in the post-HPV vaccination era.

BACKGROUND: In Norway, pap smear screening target women aged 25-69 years on a triennial basis. The introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) mass immunization in 2009 raises questions regarding the cost-saving future changes to current screening strategies. METHODS: We calibrated a dynamic HPV transmission model to Norwegian data and assessed the impact of changing screening 20 or 30 years after vaccine introduction, assuming 60 or 90% vaccination coverage. Screening compliance among vaccinated women was assumed at 80 or 50%. Strategies considered: (i) 5-yearly screening of women of 25-69 years, (ii) 3-yearly screening of women of 30-69 years and (iii) 3-yearly screening of women of 25-59 years. RESULTS: Greatest health gains were accomplished by ensuring a high vaccine uptake. In 2060, cervical cancer incidence was reduced by an estimated 36-57% compared with that of no vaccination. Stopping screening at the age of 60 years, excluding opportunistic screening, increased cervical cancer incidence by 3% (2060) compared with maintaining the current screening strategy, resulting in 1.0-2.4% extra cancers (2010-2060). The 5-yearly screening strategy elevated cervical cancer incidence by 30% resulting in 4.7-11.3% additional cancers. CONCLUSION: High vaccine uptake in the years to come is of primary concern. Screening of young women <30 years remains important, even under the conditions of high vaccine coverage.

Generating EQ-5D-5L health utility scores from BASDAI and BASFI: a mapping study in patients with axial spondyloarthritis using longitudinal UK registry data.

BACKGROUND: Preference-based health-state utility values (HSUVs), such as the EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L), are needed to calculate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for cost-effectiveness analyses. However, these are rarely used in clinical trials of interventions in axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). In these cases, mapping can be used to predict HSUVs. OBJECTIVE: To develop mapping algorithms to estimate EQ-5D-5L HSUVs from the Bath Ankylosing Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) and the Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (BASFI). METHODS: Data from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register in Ankylosing Spondylitis (BSRBR-AS) provided 5122 observations with complete BASDAI, BASFI, and EQ-5D-5L responses covering the full range of disease severity. We compared direct mapping using adjusted limited dependent variable mixture models (ALDVMMs) and optional inclusion of the gap between full health and the next feasible value with indirect response mapping using ordered probit (OPROBIT) and generalised ordered probit (GOPROBIT) models. Explanatory variables included BASDAI, BASFI, and age. Metrics to assess model goodness-of-fit and performance/accuracy included Akaike and Bayesian information criteria (AIC/BIC), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE), plotting predictive vs. observed estimates across the range of BASDAI/BASFI and comparing simulated data with the original data set for the preferred/best model. RESULTS: Overall, the ALDVMM models that did not formally include the gap between full health and the next feasible value outperformed those that did. The four-component mixture models (with squared terms included) performed better than the three-component models. Response mapping using GOPROBIT (no squared terms included) or OPROBIT (with squared terms included) offered the next best performing models after the three-component ALDVMM (with squared terms). Simulated data of the preferred model (ALDVMM with four-components) did not significantly underestimate uncertainty across most of the range of EQ-5D-5L values, however the proportion of data at full health was underrepresented, likely due in part to model fitting on a small number of observations at this point in the actual data (4%). CONCLUSIONS: The mapping algorithms developed in this study enabled the generation of EQ-5D-5L utilities from BASDAI/BASFI. The indirect mapping equations reported for the EQ-5D-5L facilitate the calculation of the EQ-5D-5L utility scores using other UK and country-specific value sets.

Exercise as an Airway Clearance Technique in people with Cystic Fibrosis (ExACT-CF): rationale and study protocol for a randomised pilot trial.

Background: Chest physiotherapy is an established cornerstone of care for people with cystic fibrosis (pwCF), but is often burdensome. Guidelines recommend at least one chest physiotherapy session daily, using various airway clearance techniques (ACTs). Exercise (with huffs and coughs) may offer an alternative ACT, however the willingness of pwCF to be randomised into a trial needs testing. The 'ExACT-CF: Exercise as an Airway Clearance Technique in people with Cystic Fibrosis' trial will test the feasibility of recruiting pwCF to be randomised to continue usual care (chest physiotherapy) or replace it with exercise ACT (ExACT) for 28-days. Secondary aims include determining the short-term clinical impact (and safety) of stopping routine chest physiotherapy and replacing it with ExACT, and effects on physical activity, sleep, mood, quality of life and treatment burden, alongside preliminary health economic measures and acceptability. Methods: Multi-centre, two-arm, randomised (1:1 allocation using minimisation), pilot trial at two sites. Fifty pwCF (≥10 years, FEV 1 >40% predicted, stable on Elexacaftor/Tezacaftor/Ivacaftor (ETI)) will be randomised to an individually-customised ExACT programme (≥once daily aerobic exercise of ≥20-minutes duration at an intensity that elicits deep breathing, with huffs and coughs), or usual care. After baseline assessments, secondary outcomes will be assessed after 28-days, with additional home lung function and exacerbation questionnaires at 7, 14 and 21-days, physical activity and sleep monitoring throughout, and embedded qualitative and health-economic components. Feasibility measures include recruitment, retention, measurement completion, adverse events, interviews exploring the acceptability of trial procedures, and a trial satisfaction questionnaire. Discussion: Co-designed with the UK CF community, the ExACT-CF pilot trial is the first multi-centre RCT to test the feasibility of recruiting pwCF stable on ETI into a trial investigating ExACT. This pilot trial will inform the feasibility, design, management, likely external validity for progression to a main phase randomised controlled trial. Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT05482048).

Cystic fibrosis (CF) is the UK's most common inherited genetic condition and affects > 10,500 people. CF causes problems with the movement of salt and water in the body, resulting in sticky mucus building up, mostly in the lungs and gut. Thick mucus in the airways leads to repeated infections which can damage the lungs. Chest physiotherapy is routinely prescribed to keep pwCF healthy, by loosening and clearing sticky, thick mucus from the airways. However, many find it time-consuming and burdensome. People with CF (pwCF) have asked if doing exercise could have the same effect for clearing mucus. Surveys show that many pwCF have occasionally replaced chest physiotherapy with exercise for airway clearance. We also showed that many pwCF, their families, physiotherapists and doctors in the UK consider that hard exercise with huffs and coughs may be able to clear mucus from the airways. We now need to know if they would be willing to take part in research that asks some to stop chest physiotherapy and do intense exercise with huffs and coughs instead. We will study 50 pwCF (> 10 years old) for 28 days. We will ask half to continue their usual care, and half to stop chest physiotherapy and do exercise that gets them breathing deeply (with huffs and coughs) instead. We will see if people are willing to start and continue with such a study and what they think of the processes. We will also see how stopping chest physiotherapy and replacing it with exercise affects measurements of their lung function. Within the study we will talk with pwCF and members of their CF team to understand their experiences. This information will tell us whether a larger study can answer whether certain forms of exercise can safely be used as an alternative to chest physiotherapy.

Study protocol for the Multiple Symptoms Study 3: a pragmatic, randomised controlled trial of a clinic for patients with persistent (medically unexplained) physical symptoms.

INTRODUCTION: Persistent physical symptoms (which cannot be adequately attributed to physical disease) affect around 1 million people (2% of adults) in the UK. They affect patients' quality of life and account for at least one third of referrals from General Practitioners (GPs) to specialists. These referrals give patients little benefit but have a real cost to health services time and diagnostic resources. The symptoms clinic has been designed to help people make sense of persistent physical symptoms (especially if medical tests have been negative) and to reduce the impact of symptoms on daily life. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This pragmatic, multicentre, randomised controlled trial will assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of the symptoms clinic intervention plus usual care compared with usual care alone. Patients were identified through GP searches and mail-outs and recruited by the central research team. 354 participants were recruited and individually randomised (1:1). The primary outcome is the self-reported Physical Health Questionnaire-15 at 52 weeks postrandomisation. Secondary outcome measures include the EuroQol 5 dimension 5 level and healthcare resource use. Outcome measures will also be collected at 13 and 26 weeks postrandomisation. A process evaluation will be conducted including consultation content analysis and interviews with participants and key stakeholders. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval has been obtained via Greater Manchester Central Research Ethics Committee (Reference 18/NW/0422). The results of the trial will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals, presented at relevant conferences and disseminated to trial participants and patient interest groups. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN57050216.

The BSR-PsA: study protocol for the British Society for Rheumatology psoriatic arthritis register.

BACKGROUND: Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) presents a unique clinical challenge. Affecting joints, skin, nails, and other organs, it is associated with various comorbidities and has a significant impact on quality of life, social participation and working life. While biologic and other targeted synthetic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (bDMARDs and tsDMARDs) have revolutionised therapy, questions remain about the long-term safety of these agents, and their effectiveness and cost-effectiveness in the real-world clinical setting. METHODS/DESIGN: The British Society for Rheumatology Psoriatic Arthritis Register (BSR-PsA) is a prospective registry of patients with PsA, recruited from across Great Britain, who are (a) commencing a bDMARD/tsDMARD; or (b) naïve to all bDMARDs/tsDMARDs. Ethical approval was given by the NHS West of Scotland Research Ethics Committee 3 (reference: 18/WS/0126). Clinical data are extracted from participants' medical records, including symptom onset and diagnosis, joint, skin and nail symptoms, dactylitis and enthesitis. Physical measurements (height, weight and 66/68 joint counts) and a detailed drug history are taken. Participants are also asked to complete questionnaires comprising instruments relating to general health and quality of life, axial disease, sleep and fatigue, impact of disease, functional status, mental health, other symptoms, and occupational status. The study duration is 5 years in the first instance, and all participants are followed up annually until the end of the study. Participants commencing a bDMARD/tsDMARD are also followed up three and six months after the start of therapy. Disease activity, including C-reactive protein, is assessed at each visit; and participants from some centres are invited to donate blood and urine samples for the creation of a biobank. DISCUSSION: Complementing data from randomised trials, results from this study will contribute to the evidence base underpinning the clinical management of psoriatic arthritis. Various analyses will determine the effectiveness and safety of bDMARDs/tsDMARDs in the real-world, will examine the clinical and biological predictors of treatment response, and will provide real-world data on the cost-effectiveness of these therapies, as well as providing informative data important to patients such as quality of life and occupational outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The full study protocol is registered on the Open Science Framework ( https://osf.io/jzs8n ).

The Arabin pessary to prevent preterm birth in women with a twin pregnancy and a short cervix: the STOPPIT 2 RCT.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth is common in twins and accounts for significant mortality and morbidity. There are no effective preventative treatments. Some studies have suggested that, in twin pregnancy complicated by a short cervix, the Arabin pessary, which fits around the cervix and can be inserted as an outpatient procedure, reduces preterm birth and prevents neonatal morbidity. OBJECTIVE: STOPPIT 2 aimed to evaluate the clinical utility of the Arabin cervical pessary in preventing preterm birth in women with a twin pregnancy and a short cervix. DESIGN: STOPPIT 2 was a pragmatic, open label, multicentre randomised controlled trial with two treatment group - the Arabin pessary plus standard care (intervention) and standard care alone (control). Participants were initially recruited into the screening phase of the study, when cervical length was measured. Women with a measured cervical length of ≤ 35 mm were then recruited into the treatment phase of the study. An economic evaluation considered cost-effectiveness and a qualitative substudy explored the experiences of participants and clinicians. SETTING: Antenatal clinics in the UK and elsewhere in Europe. PARTICIPANTS: Women with twin pregnancy at < 21 weeks' gestation with known chorionicity and gestation established by scan at ≤ 16 weeks' gestation. INTERVENTIONS: Ultrasound scan to establish cervical length. Women with a cervical length of ≤ 35 mm at 18+ 0-20+ 6 weeks' gestation were randomised to standard care or Arabin pessary plus standard care. Randomisation was performed by computer and accessed through a web-based browser. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Obstetric - all births before 34+ 0 weeks' gestation following the spontaneous onset of labour; and neonatal - composite of adverse outcomes, including stillbirth or neonatal death, periventricular leukomalacia, early respiratory morbidity, intraventricular haemorrhage, necrotising enterocolitis or proven sepsis, all measured up to 28 days after the expected date of delivery. RESULTS: A total of 2228 participants were recruited to the screening phase, of whom 2170 received a scan and 503 were randomised: 250 to Arabin pessary and 253 to standard care alone. The rate of the primary obstetric outcome was 18.4% (46/250) in the intervention group and 20.6% (52/253) in the control group (adjusted odds ratio 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.55 to 1.38; p = 0.54). The rate of the primary neonatal outcome was 13.4% (67/500) and 15.0% (76/506) in the intervention group and control group, respectively (adjusted odds ratio 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.54 to 1.36; p = 0.52). The pessary was largely well tolerated and clinicians found insertion and removal 'easy' or 'fairly easy' in the majority of instances. The simple costs analysis showed that pessary treatment is no more costly than standard care. LIMITATIONS: There was the possibility of a type II error around smaller than anticipated benefit. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the Arabin pessary did not reduce preterm birth or adverse neonatal outcomes in women with a twin pregnancy and a short cervix. The pessary either is ineffective at reducing preterm birth or has an effect size of < 0.4. FUTURE WORK: Women with twin pregnancy remain at risk of preterm birth; work is required to find treatments for this. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN98835694 and ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02235181. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 44. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Women who are pregnant with twins have a much higher risk of going into labour early and having an early (preterm) birth than women who are pregnant with only one baby. For this reason, babies who are twins are much more likely to die or to have serious health complications in the first months of life. Although we know that women with twin pregnancy are at risk, there are no treatments that are recommended to prevent early births. Some studies have suggested that the Arabin pessary can help. The Arabin pessary is a silicone ring that fits around the cervix (neck of the womb). The pessary can be put in place in a clinic without any need for an anaesthetic. Some studies have suggested that the Arabin pessary helps and others have suggested that it does not. It appears to be most helpful when the cervix (neck of the womb) is already shortening. Shortening of the neck of the womb is a sign that early birth is even more likely. We asked women with twin pregnancy to take part in STOPPIT 2. Women who agreed had an ultrasound scan of the neck of the womb, which measured its length. Those with a short cervix were randomised to be offered the Arabin pessary (in addition to standard care) or standard care alone. This allocation was carried out 'at random' by a computer. We followed women up until the end of their pregnancy and collected information on the babies' health after birth. We found that the Arabin pessary did not reduce the risk of an early birth; nor did it reduce the risk of health complications for the baby. We conclude that the Arabin pessary should not be used for this purpose.

Cost-effectiveness of etanercept in patients with severe ankylosing spondylitis in Germany.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of etanercept (ETN) plus usual care (including NSAIDs) compared with usual care alone (including NSAIDs) in patients with severe AS in Germany. METHODS: A mathematical model previously applied to the UK was adapted using resource use and cost data (for 2007) from the national database of the German Collaborative Arthritis Centres. Social health insurance (SHI) and societal perspectives were analysed. Assumptions on initial response and changes in health-related quality of life were based on Phase III randomized controlled trials. Initial treatment response according to British Society for Rheumatology guidelines were assumed as a conservative estimate in the German context. Long-term disease progression was based on the available literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were expressed as euros/quality-adjusted life year (QALY), for a cohort of 1000 patients over 25 years. Sensitivity analyses explored uncertainty in results. RESULTS: In the base case, ETN plus usual care (including NSAIDs) yielded 1475 more QALYs at an additional cost of €80,827,668 (SHI) or €32,657,590 (societal) leading to an ICER of €54,815/QALY and €22,147/QALY, respectively. Over a shorter time horizon of 10 years, the ICERs were €59,006 and €29,815 for SHI and societal viewpoints, respectively. Assumptions having the largest impact on results included withdrawal rates from ETN, quality of life, disease costs and initial response. CONCLUSIONS: Cost-effectiveness for ETN in patients with severe AS in Germany differs according to the cost perspective. Study estimates were higher than in the UK but comparable with reported cost-effectiveness of anti-TNF treatments in patients with RA in Germany.

Comparison of treatment costs in inadequately controlled type 2 diabetes in Germany based on the APOLLO trial with insulin glargine.

OBJECTIVE: A cost analysis of once-daily insulin glargine versus three-times daily insulin lispro in combination with oral antidiabetic drugs (OADs) for insulin-naive type 2 diabetes patients in Germany based on the APOLLO trial (A Parallel design comparing an Oral antidiabetic drug combination therapy with either Lantus once daily or Lispro at mealtime in type 2 diabetes patients failing Oral treatment). METHODS: Annual direct treatment costs were estimated from the perspective of the German statutory health insurance (SHI). Costs accounted for included insulin medication, disposable pens and consumable items (needles, blood glucose test strips and lancets). Sensitivity analyses (on resource use and unit costs) were performed to reflect current German practice. RESULTS: Average treatment costs per patient per year in the base case were 1,073 euro for glargine and 1,794 euro for lispro. Insulin costs represented 65% vs. 37% of total costs respectively. Acquisition costs of glargine were offset by the lower costs of consumable items (380 euro vs. 1,139 euro). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the results in favour of glargine. All scenarios yielded cost savings in total treatment costs ranging from 84 euro to 727 euro. CONCLUSIONS: Combination therapy of once-daily insulin glargine versus three-times daily insulin lispro both with OADs, in the management of insulin-dependent type 2 diabetes offers the potential for substantial cost savings from the German SHI perspective.

Atrial fibrillation case finding in over 65 s with cardiovascular risk factors - Results of initial Scottish clinical experience.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major preventable risk factor for stroke and may be silent in elderly individuals who are at especially high risk. This paper describes the first phase of implementation of a clinical AF detection programme in a community setting. Objectives were (i) to determine the feasibility of using a handheld ECG recording system for AF detection among individuals aged 65 years or more, who have cardiovascular risk factors. (ii) to estimate the yield of previously undiagnosed atrial fibrillation cases, and the proportion of these who would be suitable for oral anticoagulation. METHODS: a handheld ECG monitor was placed in each of 23 primary care practices across Scotland. Eligible patients attending for annual health checks had ECGs recorded, and the ECGs were transmitted and interpreted by two senior cardiologists. ECG quality was rated, and an adjudication made on the rhythm. For patients confirmed with AF, stroke and bleeding risk were estimated using CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scoring tools. RESULTS: single lead ECGs were recorded in 1805 patients (703 female and 1102 male), mean (SD) age 74.9 (7.1) years. Rhythm regularity could be assessed in 98.7% of ECGs recorded. 92 patients (5.1%) were found to have AF. Median [range]CHA2DS2-VASc score was 4 ([2-7) and median [range] HAS-BLED score was 2 (1-5). CONCLUSION: handheld ECG recording can be used to identify AF in the primary care setting, with minimal training. The yield was relatively high.

Randomised controlled trial to assess the impact of a lifestyle intervention (ActWELL) in women invited to NHS breast screening.

INTRODUCTION: In Scotland, the incidence of breast cancer is predicted to rise significantly in the next few decades and while there are measures to support reductions in morbidity and mortality, the breast cancer community is currently exploring preventative opportunities including supporting weight management programmes in postmenopausal women. This study aims to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a theory-based, community delivered, minimal contact, weight management (diet, physical activity and behaviour change techniques) programme (ActWELL) in women with a body mass index (BMI) >25 kg/m2 attending routine breast cancer screening appointments. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The study will be a four-centre, 1:1 parallel group randomised controlled trial of a 12-month weight management intervention initiated in breast cancer screening centres, delivered by trained Breast Cancer Now lifestyle coaches in community settings. The intervention programme involves two intervention meetings with coaches plus (up to) nine telephone contacts over 12 months. The programme will focus on personalised diet (including alcoholic and sugary drinks) and physical activity habits. Behaviour change techniques include self-monitoring, goal setting, implementation intentions, action and coping plans. The study has a sample size of 414 women with a BMI >25 kg/m2 attending routine National Health Service breast cancer screening appointments. Measures will be taken at baseline, 12 weeks and at 12-month follow-up, complemented by qualitative interviews exploring perceived acceptability and impact on habitual behaviours. The two co-primary outcomes are mean change in measured body weight and change in physical activity between groups to 12 months. Secondary outcomes are changes in eating habits, alcohol intake, sedentary time, quality of life, waist circumference, lipid, haemoglobin A1c and insulin profiles, blood pressure and cost-effectiveness of the intervention. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The protocol has been approved by East of Scotland Research Ethics Committee (17/ES/0073). All participants provide written informed consent. Dissemination will be through peer-reviewed publication and conference presentations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN11057518; Pre-results.

Cost-effectiveness of immunoglobulin M-enriched immunoglobulin (Pentaglobin) in the treatment of severe sepsis and septic shock.

PURPOSE: To measure the cost-effectiveness of a specific polyclonal intravenous immune globulin preparation (Pentaglobin) in adult patients treated for severe sepsis and septic shock. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Effectiveness data from a meta-analysis of 9 randomized trials (N=435) were used to populate a decision model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of Pentaglobin and its comparator standard therapy from the hospital perspective in Germany. PRIMARY OUTCOME: all-cause morality; secondary outcome: intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay. Benefit was expressed as lives saved (LS). Published cost data were applied to assess differences in ICU treatment costs. Cost-effectiveness was calculated as incremental cost per LS. RESULTS: Pentaglobin reduced the risk of mortality (P<.001) but had no effect on ICU length of stay. A baseline risk of mortality of 0.4434 (risk ratio=0.5652; absolute risk reduction=0.1928; number-needed-to-treat=5.19) increased ICU treatment costs with Pentaglobin by 2,037 (22,711 vs 24,747) with a cost per LS of 10,565. Sensitivity analyses on baseline mortality risk (95% confidence interval 0.3293-0.5162) and risk ratio (95% confidence interval 0.4306-0.7420) yielded a cost per LS range of 5,715 to 28,443 with a 56.3% probability of cost-effectiveness of 12,000 or less. CONCLUSIONS: Pentaglobin is a promising adjuvant therapy both clinically and economically for treatment of adults with severe sepsis and septic shock.

Obesity and its comorbidities: present and future importance on health status in Switzerland.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to estimate the proportion of various diseases attributable to obesity in Switzerland in order to get a hint of its present and future importance on health status and on our health care budgets. METHODS: The population attributable risk (PAR) for each of 17 obesity-linked conditions was estimated as the proportion of each disease condition which is attributable to obesity. The fraction of each disease that is attributable to obesity in Switzerland was calculated using the proportion (prevalence) of obesity in Switzerland and the relative risk of suffering from a given obesity-related disease in Switzerland or comparable countries. RESULTS: With a PAR of 88.6% diabetes represents the disease with the highest proportion attributable to obesity in Switzerland. It is followed by a PAF of 26.8% for hypertension, 24.7% for oesophageal cancer and 24.4% for gallstones. PARs of 17.4% and 5.7% were estimated for coronary heart disease and depression. CONCLUSION: Treatment of these first four diseases represents 89% of the total health care costs attributable to obesity in Switzerland. The impact the present obesity epidemic on health status as well as its social and economic consequences must be recognised.

Pharmacist-led management of chronic pain in primary care: costs and benefits in a pilot randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: To explore differences in mean costs (from a UK National Health Service perspective) and effects of pharmacist-led management of chronic pain in primary care evaluated in a pilot randomised controlled trial (RCT), and to estimate optimal sample size for a definitive RCT. DESIGN: Regression analysis of costs and effects, using intention-to-treat and expected value of sample information analysis (EVSI). SETTING: Six general practices: Grampian (3); East Anglia (3). PARTICIPANTS: 125 patients with complete resource use and short form-six-dimension questionnaire (SF-6D) data at baseline, 3 months and 6 months. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomised to either pharmacist medication review with face-to-face pharmacist prescribing or pharmacist medication review with feedback to general practitioner or treatment as usual (TAU). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Differences in mean total costs and effects measured as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at 6 months and EVSI for sample size calculation. RESULTS: Unadjusted total mean costs per patient were £452 for prescribing (SD: £466), £570 for review (SD: £527) and £668 for TAU (SD: £1333). After controlling for baseline costs, the adjusted mean cost differences per patient relative to TAU were £77 for prescribing (95% CI -82 to 237) and £54 for review (95% CI -103 to 212). Unadjusted mean QALYs were 0.3213 for prescribing (SD: 0.0659), 0.3161 for review (SD: 0.0684) and 0.3079 for TAU (SD: 0.0606). Relative to TAU, the adjusted mean differences were 0.0069 for prescribing (95% CI -0.0091 to 0.0229) and 0.0097 for review (95% CI -0.0054 to 0.0248). The EVSI suggested the optimal future trial size was between 460 and 690, and between 540 and 780 patients per arm using a threshold of £30,000 and £20,000 per QALY gained, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with TAU, pharmacist-led interventions for chronic pain appear more costly and provide similar QALYs. However, these estimates are imprecise due to the small size of the pilot trial. The EVSI indicates that a larger trial is necessary to obtain more precise estimates of differences in mean effects and costs between treatment groups. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN06131530.