Comparison of definitions of early knee osteoarthritis for likelihood of progression at 2-year and 5-year follow-up: the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study.

BACKGROUND: Preventing worsening osteoarthritis (OA) in persons with early OA is a major treatment goal. We evaluated if different early OA definitions yielded enough cases of worsening OA within 2-5 years to make trial testing treatments feasible. METHODS: We assessed different definitions of early OA using data from Multicenter Osteoarthritis (MOST) Study participants who were followed up longitudinally. We defined early OA as having at least minimal knee pain (WOMAC (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index) pain ≥3/20) with different levels of pre-radiographic OA. For MRI, we required knee pain and used MRI definitions with combinations of cartilage damage, osteophytes, bone marrow lesions and meniscus damage.The primary outcome, worsening OA at 2 or 5 years, combined structural (Kellgren and Lawrence grade ≥2 with joint space narrowing ≥1) and symptom (WOMAC pain ≥6 with increase ≥2 from baseline) outcomes. We also examined structural and symptom outcomes separately. RESULTS: For worsening OA at 2 years, we included 750 participants (mean age 65 years, 60% female, 90% white, mean body mass index 29.2 kg/m2). Fewer than 10% of early OA knees had the combined outcome at 2 or 5 years. At 2 years, for several early OA definitions, roughly 20% of knees had either structural or symptom worsening outcomes. Two-year trials of either, but not both, outcomes would need to recruit over 1200 patients. CONCLUSION: Most knees with early OA are stable and do not progress. Some painful knees experience worse pain but not structural progression and vice versa. Trial testing treatments to prevent OA illness or disease will be challenging.

Assessing the association of epigenetic age acceleration with osteoarthritis in the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST).

PURPOSE: Advancing age is one of the strongest risk factors for osteoarthritis (OA). DNA methylation-based measures of epigenetic age acceleration may provide insights into mechanisms underlying OA. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study in a subset of 671 participants ages 45-69 years with no or mild radiographic knee OA. DNA methylation was assessed with the Illumina Infinium MethylationEPIC 850K array. We calculated predicted epigenetic age according to Hannum, Horvath, PhenoAge, and GrimAge epigenetic clocks, then regressed epigenetic age on chronological age to obtain the residuals. Associations between the residuals and knee, hand, and multi-joint OA were assessed using logistic regression, adjusted for chronological age, sex, clinical site, smoking status, and race. RESULTS: Twenty-three percent met criteria for radiographic hand OA, 25% met criteria for radiographic knee OA, and 8% met criteria for multi-joint OA. Mean chronological age (SD) was 58.4 (6.7) years. Mean predicted epigenetic age (SD) according to Horvath, Hannum, PhenoAge, and GrimAge epigenetic clocks was 64.9 (6.4), 68.6 (5.9), 50.5 (7.7), and 67.0 (6.2), respectively. Horvath epigenetic age acceleration was not associated with an increased odds of hand OA, odds ratio (95% confidence intervals) = 1.03 (0.99-1.08), with similar findings for knee and multi-joint OA. We found similar magnitudes of associations for Hannum epigenetic age, PhenoAge, and GrimAge acceleration compared to Horvath epigenetic age acceleration. CONCLUSIONS: Epigenetic age acceleration as measured by various well-validated epigenetic clocks based on DNA methylation was not associated with increased risk of knee, hand, or multi-joint OA independent of chronological age.

Exploring different models of pain phenotypes and their association with pain worsening in people with early knee osteoarthritis: The MOST cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine i) pain phenotypes (PP) in people with early-stage knee osteoarthritis (EKOA); ii) the longitudinal association between the phenotypes and pain worsening at two years. DESIGN: We studied participants with EKOA from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study defined as pain intensity ≤3/10, Kellgren and Lawrence grade ≤2, intermittent pain none to sometimes, and no constant pain. Two models of PP were explored. Model A included pressure pain thresholds, temporal summation, conditioned pain modulation, pain catastrophizing, sleep quality, depression, and widespread pain (WSP). In Model B, gait characteristics, quadriceps strength, comorbidities, and magnetic resonance imaging features were added to Model A. Latent Class Analysis was used to create phenotypes, and logistic regression was used to determine their association with pain worsening. RESULTS: 750 individuals (60% females), mean age [standard deviation (SD)]: 60.3 (9.4) were included in Model A and 333 individuals (60% females), mean age (SD): 59.4 (8.1) in Model B. 3-class and 4-class solutions were chosen for Model A and Model B. In Model A, the most "severe" phenotype was dominated by psychosocial factors, WSP, and measures of nervous system sensitization. Similarly in Model B, the Model A phenotype plus gait variables, quadriceps strength, and comorbidities were dominant. Surprisingly, none of the phenotypes in either model had a significant relationship with pain worsening. CONCLUSION: Phenotypes based upon various factors thought to be important for the pain experience were identified in those with EKOA but were not significantly related to pain worsening. These phenotypes require validation with clinically relevant endpoints.

Associations of pain sensitivity and conditioned pain modulation with physical activity: findings from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST).

OBJECTIVE: Individuals with chronic pain due to knee osteoarthritis (OA) are insufficiently physically active, and alterations of facilitatory and inhibitory nociceptive signaling are common in this population. Our objective was to examine the association of these alterations in nociceptive signaling with objective accelerometer-based measures of physical activity in a large observational cohort. DESIGN: We used data from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study. Measures of peripheral and central pain sensitivity included pressure pain threshold at the knee and mechanical temporal summation at the wrist, respectively. The presence of descending pain inhibition was assessed by conditioned pain modulation (CPM). Physical activity was quantitatively assessed over 7 days using a lower back-worn activity monitor. Summary metrics included steps/day, activity intensity, and sedentary time. Linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the association of pain sensitivity and the presence of descending pain inhibition with physical activity measures. RESULTS: Data from 1873 participants was analyzed (55.9% female, age = 62.8 ± 10.0 years). People having greater peripheral and central sensitivity showed lower step counts. CPM was not significantly related to any of the physical activity measures, and none of the exposures were significantly related to sedentary time. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort, greater peripheral and central sensitivity were associated with reduced levels of objectively-assessed daily step counts. Further research may investigate ways to modify or treat heightened pain sensitivity as a means to increase physical activity in older adults with knee OA.

Clinical and imaging findings associated with preservation of knee joint health over 8 years in individuals aged 65 and over: data from the OAI.

OBJECTIVE: While risk factors for osteoarthritis (OA) are well known, it is not well understood why certain individuals maintain high mobility and joint health throughout their life while others demonstrate OA at older ages. The purpose of this study was to assess which demographic, clinical and MRI quantitative and semi-quantitative factors are associated with preserving healthy knees in older individuals. METHODS: This study analyzed data from the OA Initiative (OAI) cohort of individuals at the age of 65 years or above. Participants without OA at baseline (BL) (Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) ≤ 1) were followed and classified as incident cases (KL ≥ 2 during follow-up; n = 115) and as non-incident (KL ≤ 1 over 96-month; n = 391). Associations between the predictor-variables sex, age, BMI, race, clinical scoring systems, T2 relaxation times and Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging-Score (WORMS) readings at BL and the preservation of healthy knees (KL ≤ 1) during a 96-month follow-up period were assessed using logistic regression models. RESULTS: Obesity and presence of pain showed a significant inverse association with maintaining radiographically normal joints in patients aged 65 and above. T2 relaxation times of the lateral femur and tibia as well as the medial femur were also significantly associated with maintaining radiographically normal knee joints. Additionally, absence of lesions of the lateral meniscus and absence of cartilage lesions in the medial and patellofemoral compartments were significantly associated with maintaining healthy knee joints. CONCLUSION: Overall, this study provides protective clinical parameters as well as quantitative and semi-quantitative MR-imaging parameters associated with maintaining radiographically normal knee joints in an older population over 8 years.

Effect of weight loss on knee joint synovitis over 48 months and mediation by subcutaneous fat around the knee: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Obesity influences the development of osteoarthritis via low-grade inflammation. Progression of local inflammation (= synovitis) increased with weight gain in overweight and obese women compared to stable weight. Synovitis could be associated with subcutaneous fat (SCF) around the knee. Purpose of the study was to investigate the effect of weight loss on synovitis progression and to assess whether SCF around the knee mediates the relationship between weight loss and synovitis progression. METHODS: We included 234 overweight and obese participants (body mass index [BMI] ≥ 25 kg/m2) from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) with > 10% weight loss (n = 117) or stable overweight (< ± 3% change, n = 117) over 48 months matched for age and sex. In magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at baseline and 48 months, effusion-synovitis and Hoffa-synovitis using the MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score (MOAKS) and average joint-adjacent SCF (ajSCF) were assessed. Odds-ratios (ORs) for synovitis progression over 48 months (≥ 1 score increase) were calculated in logistic regression models adjusting for age, sex, baseline BMI, Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE), and baseline SCF measurements. Mediation of the effect of weight loss on synovitis progression by local SCF change was assessed. RESULTS: Odds for effusion-synovitis progression decreased with weight loss and ajSCF decrease (odds ratio [OR] = 0.61 and 0.56 per standard deviation [SD] change, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.44, 0.83 and 0.40, 0.79, p = 0.002 and 0.001, respectively), whereas odds for Hoffa-synovitis progression increased with weight loss and ajSCF decrease (OR = 1.47 and 1.48, CI 1.05, 2.04 and 1.02, 2.13, p = 0.024 and 0.038, respectively). AjSCF decrease mediated 39% of the effect of weight loss on effusion-synovitis progression. CONCLUSIONS: Effusion-synovitis progression was slowed by weight loss and decrease in local subcutaneous fat. Hoffa-synovitis characterized by fluid in the infrapatellar fat pad increased at the same time, suggesting a decreasing fat pad rather than active synovitis. Decrease in local subcutaneous fat partially mediated the systemic effect of weight loss on synovitis.

Thigh muscle and fat volumes are associated with knee cartilage abnormalities and bone marrow edema-like lesions: data from the osteoarthritis initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the associations of thigh muscle and fat volumes with structural abnormalities on MRI related to knee osteoarthritis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: MRI studies of the thighs and knees from 100 individuals were randomly selected from the Osteoarthritis Initiative Cohort. Whole Organ MR Scoring (WORMS) and effusion-synovitis scoring were performed in all knee MRI. Thigh muscles, intermuscular fat, and subcutaneous fat were manually segmented in 15 consecutive MR thigh images. Radiographic Kellgren-Lawrence grades (KLG) were also obtained in all knee radiographs. Independent t-tests were used to investigate the associations between thigh muscle and fat volumes, and sex. Mixed-effects analyses were obtained to investigate the associations between thigh muscle and fat volumes, KLG, WOMAC pain score, cartilage and bone marrow WORMS, as well as effusion-synovitis scores. RESULTS: Women had higher subcutaneous fat volume than men (616.82 vs. 229.13 cm3, p < 0.01) and men had higher muscle volumes than women (p < 0.01). Quadriceps (coef = -2.15, p = 0.01) and vastus medialis (coef = -1.84, p = 0.03) volumes were negatively associated with the WORMS cartilage scores. Intermuscular fat volume (coef = 0.48, p = 0.01) was positively associated with WORMS bone marrow edema-like lesion (BMEL) scores. The quadriceps (coef = -0.99, p < 0.01) and hamstring (coef = -0.59, p = 0.01) volumes were negatively associated with WORMS BMEL scores. No evidence of an association was found between thigh muscle and fat volumes with KLG and effusion-synovitis grading (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Increased quadriceps and hamstring volumes were negatively associated with cartilage lesion and BMEL scores while no evidence of an association was found between thigh muscle and fat volumes, and radiographic knee osteoarthritis or effusion-synovitis grading.

Associations between weight change, knee subcutaneous fat and cartilage thickness in overweight and obese individuals: 4-Year data from the osteoarthritis initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To assess (i) the impact of changes in body weight on changes in joint-adjacent subcutaneous fat (SCF) and cartilage thickness over 4 years and (ii) the relation between changes in joint-adjacent SCF and knee cartilage thickness. DESIGN: Individuals from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (total=399) with > 10% weight gain (n=100) and > 10% weight loss (n=100) over 4 years were compared to a matched control cohort with less than 3% change in weight (n=199). 3.0T Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) of the right knee was performed at baseline and after 4 years to quantify joint-adjacent SCF and cartilage thickness. Linear regression models were used to evaluate the associations between the (i) weight change group and 4-year changes in both knee SCF and cartilage thickness, and (ii) 4-year changes in knee SCF and in cartilage thickness. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, baseline body mass index (BMI), tibial diameter (and weight change group in analysis (ii)). RESULTS: Individuals who lost weight over 4-years had significantly less joint-adjacent SCF (beta range, medial/lateral joint sides: 2.2-4.2 mm, p < 0.001) than controls; individuals who gained weight had significantly greater joint-adjacent SCF than controls (beta range: -1.4 to -3.9 mm, p < 0.001). No statistically significant associations were found between weight change and cartilage thickness change. However, increases in joint-adjacent SCF over 4 years were significantly associated with decreases in cartilage thickness (p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Weight change was associated with joint-adjacent SCF, but not with change in cartilage thickness. However, 4-year increases in joint-adjacent SCF were associated with decreases in cartilage thickness independent of baseline BMI and weight change group.

Comparison of evaluation metrics of deep learning for imbalanced imaging data in osteoarthritis studies.

PURPOSE: To compare the evaluation metrics for deep learning methods that were developed using imbalanced imaging data in osteoarthritis studies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study utilized 2996 sagittal intermediate-weighted fat-suppressed knee MRIs with MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score readings from 2467 participants in the Osteoarthritis Initiative study. We obtained probabilities of the presence of bone marrow lesions (BMLs) from MRIs in the testing dataset at the sub-region (15 sub-regions), compartment, and whole-knee levels based on the trained deep learning models. We compared different evaluation metrics (e.g., receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and precision-recall (PR) curves) in the testing dataset with various class ratios (presence of BMLs vs. absence of BMLs) at these three data levels to assess the model's performance. RESULTS: In a subregion with an extremely high imbalance ratio, the model achieved a ROC-AUC of 0.84, a PR-AUC of 0.10, a sensitivity of 0, and a specificity of 1. CONCLUSION: The commonly used ROC curve is not sufficiently informative, especially in the case of imbalanced data. We provide the following practical suggestions based on our data analysis: 1) ROC-AUC is recommended for balanced data, 2) PR-AUC should be used for moderately imbalanced data (i.e., when the proportion of the minor class is above 5% and less than 50%), and 3) for severely imbalanced data (i.e., when the proportion of the minor class is below 5%), it is not practical to apply a deep learning model, even with the application of techniques addressing imbalanced data issues.

Impact of Sustained Synovitis on Knee Joint Structural Degeneration: 4-Year MRI Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Synovial inflammation is a risk factor for osteoarthritis (OA). But to date, there is limited information on how inflammation impacts progression of knee OA. PURPOSE: To investigate how sustained synovitis, assessed with semi-quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scores, impacts progression of knee degenerative changes over 4 years. STUDY TYPE: Retrospective cohort study. SUBJECTS: In 249 participants (N = 132 women [53%]), from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) two definitions for synovitis were used resulting in two groups of participants with sustained synovitis at baseline, 2-year, and 4-year follow-up (N = 80 and N = 132), and two groups without synovitis at all three time points (N = 81 and N = 47). FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE: 3 T intermediate-weighted (IW) turbo spin-echo (TSE) sequence and three-dimensional (3D) dual-echo steady-state (DESS) sequence. ASSESSMENT: Synovitis was scored semi-quantitatively using the Anterior Cruciate Ligament Osteoarthritis Score (ACLOAS), MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score (MOAKS), and synovial proliferation score (SPS). Two MRI-based definitions of synovitis were used: (i) score ≥2 based on cumulative score of MOAKS and ACLOAS, and (ii) score ≥3 based on the cumulative score of ACLOAS, MOAKS, and SPS. Changes in structural abnormalities from baseline to year 4 measured using the whole-organ MRI score (WORMS) were defined as outcomes. STATISTICAL TESTS: Linear regression models were used to compare the differences in longitudinal changes in WORMS scores between participants with and without sustained synovitis for each definition of sustained synovitis. A P-value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Significantly higher rates of progression were found in participants with synovitis for patellar (Beta coeff. = 0.29) and medial tibial cartilage abnormalities (Beta coeff. = 0.29) for definition (i). For definition (ii), patellar (Beta coeff. = 0.36) and medial femoral cartilage (Beta coeff. = 0.30) abnormalities demonstrated significant differences. DATA CONCLUSION: Greater progression of structural degenerative disease was observed in individuals with sustained synovitis compared to those without sustained synovitis, suggesting that sustained synovitis is associated with progressive OA. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 3 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 2.