Cost-effectiveness of COVID rapid diagnostic tests for patients with severe/critical illness in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for coronavirus disease (COVID) are used in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to inform treatment decisions. However, to date, it is unclear when this use is cost-effective. Existing analyses are limited to a narrow set of countries and uses. The aim of this study is to assess the cost-effectiveness of COVID RDTs to inform the treatment of patients with severe illness in LMICs, considering real world practice. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We assessed the cost-effectiveness of COVID testing across LMICs using a decision tree model, differentiating results by country income level, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) prevalence, and testing scenario (none, RDTs, polymerase chain reaction tests-PCRs and combinations). LMIC experts defined realistic care pathways and treatment options. Using a healthcare provider perspective and net monetary benefit approach, we assessed both intended (COVID symptom alleviation) and unintended (treatment side effects) health and economic impacts for each testing scenario. We included the side effects of corticosteroids, which are often the only available treatment for COVID. Because side effects depend both on the treatment and the patient's underlying illness (COVID or COVID-like illnesses, such as influenza), we considered the prevalence of COVID-like illnesses in our analyses. We found that SARS-CoV-2 testing of patients with severe COVID-like illness can be cost-effective in all LMICs, though only in some circumstances. High influenza prevalence among suspected COVID cases improves cost-effectiveness, since incorrectly provided corticosteroids may worsen influenza outcomes. In low- and some lower-middle-income countries, only patients with a high index of suspicion for COVID should be tested with RDTs, while other patients should be presumed to not have COVID. In some lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income countries, suspected severe COVID cases should almost always be tested. Further, in these settings, negative test results in patients with a high initial index of suspicion should be confirmed through PCR and, during influenza outbreaks, positive results in patients with a low initial index of suspicion should also be confirmed with a PCR. The use of interleukin-6 receptor blockers, when supported by testing, may also be cost-effective in higher-income LMICs. The cost at which they would be cost-effective in low-income countries ($162 to $406 per treatment course) is below current prices. The primary limitation of our analysis is substantial uncertainty around some of the parameters in our model due to limited data, most notably on current COVID mortality with standard of care, and insufficient evidence on the impact of corticosteroids on patients with severe influenza. CONCLUSIONS: COVID testing can be cost-effective to inform treatment of LMIC patients with severe COVID-like disease. The optimal algorithm is driven by country income level and health budgets, the level of suspicion that the patient may have COVID, and influenza prevalence. Further research to better characterize the unintended effects of corticosteroids, particularly on influenza cases, could improve decision making around the treatment of those with COVID-like symptoms in LMICs.

Longitudinal lung function trajectories in response to azithromycin therapy for chronic lung disease in children with HIV infection: a secondary analysis of the BREATHE trial.

BACKGROUND: Chronic lung disease (CLD) is common among children with HIV (CWH) including in those taking antiretroviral therapy (ART). Azithromycin has both antimicrobial and anti-inflammatory effects and has been effective in improving lung function in a variety of lung diseases. We investigated lung function trajectories among CWH with CLD on ART enrolled in a randomized controlled trial of adjuvant azithromycin. We also investigated factors that modified the effect of azithromycin on lung function. METHODS: The study used data from a double-blinded placebo-controlled trial conducted in Malawi and Zimbabwe of 48 weeks on azithromycin (BREATHE: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02426112) among CWH aged 6 to 19 years taking ART for at least six months who had a forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) z-score <-1.0. Participants had a further follow-up period of 24 weeks after intervention cessation. FEV1, forced vital capacity (FVC) and FEV1/FVC were measured at baseline, 24, 48 and 72-weeks and z-scores values calculated. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) models were used to determine the mean effect of azithromycin on lung-function z-scores at each follow-up time point. RESULTS: Overall, 347 adolescents (51% male, median age 15 years) were randomized to azithromycin or placebo. The median duration on ART was 6.2 (interquartile range: 3.8-8.6) years and 56.2% had an HIV viral load < 1000copies/ml at baseline. At baseline, the mean FEV1 z-score was - 2.0 (0.7) with 44.7% (n = 155) having an FEV1 z-score <-2, and 10.1% had microbiological evidence of azithromycin resistance. In both trial arms, FEV1 and FVC z-scores improved by 24 weeks but appeared to decline thereafter. The adjusted overall mean difference in FEV1 z-score between the azithromycin and placebo arms was 0.004 [-0.08, 0.09] suggesting no azithromycin effect and this was similar for other lung function parameters. There was no evidence of interaction between azithromycin effect and baseline age, lung function, azithromycin resistance or HIV viral load. CONCLUSION: There was no observed azithromycin effect on lung function z-scores at any time point suggesting no therapeutic effect on lung function. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02426112. First registered on 24/04/2015.

A qualitative study on the feasibility and acceptability of institutionalizing health technology assessment in Malawi.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the feasibility and acceptability of institutionalizing Health Technology Assessment (HTA) in Malawi. METHODS: This study employed a document review and qualitative research methods, to understand the status of HTA in Malawi. This was complemented by a review of the status and nature of HTA institutionalization in selected countries.Qualitative research employed a Focus Group Discussion (FGD ) with 7 participants, and Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with12 informants selected based on their knowledge and expertise in policy processes related to HTA in Malawi.Data extracted from the literature was organized in Microsoft Excel, categorized according to thematic areas and analyzed using a literature review framework. Qualitative data from KIIs and the FGD was analyzed using a thematic content analysis approach. RESULTS: Some HTA processes exist and are executed through three structures namely: Ministry of Health Senior Management Team, Technical Working Groups, and Pharmacy and Medicines Regulatory Authority (PMRA) with varyingdegrees of effectiveness.The main limitations of current HTA mechanisms include limited evidence use, lack of a standardized framework for technology adoption, donor pressure, lack of resources for the HTA process and technology acquisition, laws and practices that undermine cost-effectiveness considerations. KII and FGD results showed overwhelming demand for strengthening HTA in Malawi, with a stronger preference for strengthening coordination and capacity of existing entities and structures. CONCLUSION: The study has shown that HTA institutionalization is acceptable and feasible in Malawi. However, the current committee based processes are suboptimal to improve efficiency due to lack of a structured framework. A structured HTA framework has the potential to improve processes in pharmaceuticals and medical technologies decision-making.In the short to medium term, HTA capacity building should focus on generating demand and increasing capacity in cost-effectiveness assessments. Country-specific assessments should precede HTA institutionalization as well as recommendations for new technology adoptions.

Risk factors for sustained virological non-suppression among children and adolescents living with HIV in Zimbabwe and Malawi: a secondary data analysis.

BACKGROUND: We investigated risk factors for sustained virological non-suppression (viral load ≥ 1000 copies/ml on two tests 48 weeks apart) among children and adolescents accessing HIV care in public sector clinics in Harare, Zimbabwe and Blantyre, Malawi. METHODS: Participants were enrolled between 2016 and 2019, were aged 6-19 years, living with HIV, had chronic lung disease (FEV z-score < -1) and had taken antiretroviral therapy (ART) for at least six months. We used multivariate logistic regression to identify risk factors for virological non-suppression after 48 weeks, among participants who were non-suppressed at enrolment. RESULTS: At enrolment 258 participants (64.6%) were on first-line ART and 152/347 (43.8%) had virological non-suppression. After 48 weeks 114/313 (36.4%) were non-suppressed. Participants non-suppressed at baseline had almost ten times higher odds of non-suppression at follow-up (OR = 9.9, 95%CI 5.3-18.4, p < 0.001). Of those who were non-suppressed at enrolment, 87/136 (64.0%) were still non-suppressed at 48 weeks. Among this group non-suppression at 48 weeks was associated with not switching ART regimen (adjusted OR = 5.55; 95%CI 1.41-21.83); p = 0.014) and with older age. Twelve participants switched regimen in Zimbabwe and none in Malawi. CONCLUSIONS: Viral non-suppression was high among this group and many with high viral load were not switched to a new regimen, resulting in continued non-suppression after 48 weeks. Further research could determine whether improved adherence counselling and training clinicians on regimen switches can improve viral suppression rates in this population. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Secondary cohort analysis of data from BREATHE trial (Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02426112 ).

Prevalence and antimicrobial resistance profiles of respiratory microbial flora in African children with HIV-associated chronic lung disease.

BACKGROUND: HIV-associated chronic lung disease (CLD) is common among children living with HIV (CLWH) in sub-Saharan Africa, including those on antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, the pathogenesis of CLD and its possible association with microbial determinants remain poorly understood. We investigated the prevalence, and antibiotic susceptibility of Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP), Staphylococcus aureus (SA), Haemophilus influenzae (HI), and Moraxella catarrhalis (MC) among CLWH (established on ART) who had CLD (CLD+), or not (CLD-) in Zimbabwe and Malawi. METHODS: Nasopharyngeal swabs (NP) and sputa were collected from CLD+ CLWH (defined as forced-expiratory volume per second z-score < - 1 without reversibility post-bronchodilation with salbutamol), at enrolment as part of a randomised, placebo-controlled trial of azithromycin (BREATHE trial - NCT02426112 ), and from age- and sex-matched CLD- CLWH. Samples were cultured, and antibiotic susceptibility testing was conducted using disk diffusion. Risk factors for bacterial carriage were identified using questionnaires and analysed using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 410 participants (336 CLD+, 74 CLD-) were enrolled (median age, 15 years [IQR = 13-18]). SP and MC carriage in NP were higher in CLD+ than in CLD- children: 46% (154/336) vs. 26% (19/74), p = 0.008; and 14% (49/336) vs. 3% (2/74), p = 0.012, respectively. SP isolates from the NP of CLD+ children were more likely to be non-susceptible to penicillin than those from CLD- children (36% [53/144] vs 11% [2/18], p = 0.036). Methicillin-resistant SA was uncommon [4% (7/195)]. In multivariate analysis, key factors associated with NP bacterial carriage included having CLD (SP: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2 [95% CI 1.1-3.9]), younger age (SP: aOR 3.2 [1.8-5.8]), viral load suppression (SP: aOR 0.6 [0.4-1.0], SA: 0.5 [0.3-0.9]), stunting (SP: aOR 1.6 [1.1-2.6]) and male sex (SA: aOR 1.7 [1.0-2.9]). Sputum bacterial carriage was similar in both groups (50%) and was associated with Zimbabwean site (SP: aOR 3.1 [1.4-7.3], SA: 2.1 [1.1-4.2]), being on ART for a longer period (SP: aOR 0.3 [0.1-0.8]), and hot compared to rainy season (SP: aOR 2.3 [1.2-4.4]). CONCLUSIONS: CLD+ CLWH were more likely to be colonised by MC and SP, including penicillin-non-susceptible SP strains, than CLD- CLWH. The role of these bacteria in CLD pathogenesis, including the risk of acute exacerbations, should be further studied.

Patient-incurred cost of inpatient treatment for Tuberculosis in rural Malawi.

OBJECTIVES: To mitigate the economic burden of tuberculosis (TB), it is important to fully understand the costs of TB treatment from the patient perspective. We therefore sought to quantify the patient-incurred cost of TB treatment in rural Malawi, with specific focus on costs borne by patients requiring inpatient hospitalisation. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 197 inpatients and 156 outpatients being treated for TB in rural Malawi. We collected data on out-of-pocket costs and lost wages, including costs to guardians. Costs for inpatient TB treatment were estimated and compared to costs for outpatient TB treatment. We then explored the equity distribution of inpatient TB treatment cost using concentration curves. RESULTS: Despite free government services, inpatients were estimated to incur a mean of $137 (standard deviation: $147) per initial TB episode, corresponding to >50% of annual household spending among patients in the lowest expenditure quintile. Non-medical hospitalisation costs accounted for 88% of this total. Patients treated entirely as outpatients incurred estimated costs of $25 (standard deviation: $15) per episode. The concentration curves showed that, among individuals hospitalised for an initial TB episode, poorer patients shouldered a much greater proportion of inpatient TB treatment costs than wealthier ones (concentration index: -0.279). CONCLUSION: Patients hospitalised for TB in resource-limited rural Malawi experience devastating costs of TB treatment. Earlier diagnosis and treatment must be prioritised if we are to meet goals of effective TB control, avoidance of catastrophic costs and provision of appropriate patient-centred care in such settings.

OBJECTIFS: Pour atténuer la charge économique de la tuberculose (TB), il est important de bien comprendre les coûts du traitement de la TB du point de vue du patient. Nous avons donc cherché à quantifier les coûts encourus par les patients pour le traitement de la TB dans les zones rurales du Malawi, en mettant l'accent sur les coûts supportés par les patients nécessitant une hospitalisation. MÉTHODES: Nous avons mené une enquête transversale auprès de 197 patients hospitalisés et 156 patients ambulatoires traités pour la TB dans les régions rurales du Malawi. Nous avons collecté des données sur les dépenses payées directement de la poche et les pertes de salaire, y compris les coûts pour les gardiens des malades. Les coûts du traitement anti-TB des patients hospitaliser ont été estimés et comparés aux ceux des patients ambulatoires. Nous avons ensuite exploré la répartition des équités propres au coût du traitement de la TB des patients hospitalisés en utilisant des courbes de concentration. RÉSULTATS: Malgré les services gratuits du gouvernement, les patients hospitalisés encouraient en moyenne estimée de 137 $ (écart-type: 147 $) par épisode initial de TB, ce qui correspond à >50% des dépenses annuelles des ménages chez les patients du quintile de dépenses le plus bas. Les frais d'hospitalisation non médicaux représentaient 88% de ce total. Les patients traités entièrement en ambulatoire encouraient des coûts estimés à 25 $ (écart type: 15 $) par épisode. Les courbes de concentration ont montré que, parmi les personnes hospitalisées pour un premier épisode de TB, les patients les plus pauvres supportaient une proportion beaucoup plus élevée des coûts de traitement de la TB en hospitalisation que les plus riches (indice de concentration: -0,279). CONCLUSION: Les patients hospitalisés pour la TB dans les régions rurales pauvres du Malawi connaissent des coûts dévastateurs pour le traitement de la TB. Le diagnostic et le traitement précoces doivent être priorisés si nous voulons atteindre des objectifs de contrôle efficace de la TB, d'évitement des coûts catastrophiques et de prestation de soins appropriés centrés sur le patient dans de tels contextes .

Screening for Tuberculosis With Xpert MTB/RIF Assay Versus Fluorescent Microscopy Among Adults Newly Diagnosed With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Rural Malawi: A Cluster Randomized Trial (Chepetsa).

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) remains the leading cause of death among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals globally. Screening for TB at the point of HIV diagnosis with a high-sensitivity assay presents an opportunity to reduce mortality. METHODS: We performed a cluster randomized trial of TB screening among adults newly diagnosed with HIV in 12 primary health clinics in rural Thyolo, Malawi. Clinics were allocated in a 1:1 ratio to perform either point-of-care Xpert MTB/RIF assay (Xpert) or point-of-care light-emitting diode fluorescence microscopy (LED-FM) for individuals screening positive for TB symptoms. Asymptomatic participants were offered isoniazid preventive therapy in both arms. Investigators, but not clinic staff or participants, were masked to allocation. Our primary outcome was the incidence rate ratio (RR) of all-cause mortality within 12 months of HIV diagnosis. RESULTS: Prevalent TB was diagnosed in 24 of 1001 (2.4%) individuals enrolled in clinics randomized to Xpert, compared with 10 of 841 (1.2%) in clinics randomized to LED-FM. All-cause mortality was 22% lower in the Xpert arm than in the LED-FM arm (6.7 vs 8.6 per 100 person-years; RR, 0.78 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .58-1.06]). A planned subgroup analysis suggested that participants with more advanced HIV (World Health Organization clinical stage 3 or 4) disease had lower mortality in clinics randomized to Xpert than to LED-FM (RR, 0.43 [95% CI, .22-.87]). CONCLUSIONS: In rural Malawi, using point-of-care Xpert MTB/RIF to test symptomatic patients for TB at the time of HIV diagnosis reduced all-cause 12-month mortality among individuals with advanced HIV. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT01450085.

Psychometric performance of the Chichewa versions of the EQ-5D-Y-3L and EQ-5D-Y-5L among healthy and sick children and adolescents in Malawi.

OBJECTIVES: The EuroQol Group has developed an extended version of the EQ-5D-Y-3L with five response levels for each of its five dimensions (EQ-5D-Y-5L). The psychometric performance has been reported in several studies for the EQ-5D-Y-3L but not for the EQ-5D-Y-5L. This study aimed to psychometrically evaluate the EQ-5D-Y-3L and EQ-5D-Y-5L Chichewa (Malawi) versions. METHODS: The EQ-5D-Y-3L, EQ-5D-Y-5L and PedsQL™ 4.0 Chichewa versions were administered to children and adolescents aged 8-17 years in Blantyre, Malawi. Both of the EQ-5D-Y versions were evaluated for missing data, floor/ceiling effects, and validity (convergent, discriminant, known-group and empirical). RESULTS: A total of 289 participants (95 healthy, and 194 chronic and acute) self-completed the questionnaires. There was little problem with missing data (< 5%) except in children aged 8-12 years particularly for the EQ-5D-Y-5L. Ceiling effects was generally reduced in moving from the EQ-5D-Y-3L to the EQ-5D-Y-5L. For both EQ-5D-Y-3L and EQ-5D-Y-5L, convergent validity tested with PedsQL™ 4.0 was found to be satisfactory (correlation ≥ 0.4) at scale level but mixed at dimension /sub-scale level. There was evidence of discriminant validity (p > 0.05) with respect to gender and age, but not for school grade (p < 0.05). For empirical validity, the EQ-5D-Y-5L was 31-91% less efficient than the EQ-5D-Y-3L at detecting differences in health status using external measures. CONCLUSIONS: Both versions of the EQ-5D-Y-3L and EQ-5D-Y-5L had issues with missing data in younger children. Convergent validity, discriminant validity with respect to gender and age, and known-group validity of either measures were also met for use among children and adolescents in this population, although with some limitations (discriminant validity by grade and empirical validity). The EQ-5D-Y-3L seems particularly suited for use in younger children (8-12 years) and the EQ-5D-Y-5L in adolescents (13-17 years). However, further psychometric testing is required for test re-test reliability and responsiveness that could not be carried out in this study due to COVID-19 restrictions.

A systematic review of economic evaluations of whole-genome sequencing for the surveillance of bacterial pathogens.

Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) has unparalleled ability to distinguish between bacteria, with many public health applications. The generation and analysis of WGS data require significant financial investment. We describe a systematic review summarizing economic analyses of genomic surveillance of bacterial pathogens, reviewing the evidence for economic viability. The protocol was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42021289030). Six databases were searched on 8 November 2021 using terms related to 'WGS', 'population surveillance' and 'economic analysis'. Quality was assessed with the Drummond-Jefferson checklist. Following data extraction, a narrative synthesis approach was taken. Six hundred and eighty-one articles were identified, of which 49 proceeded to full-text screening, with 9 selected for inclusion. All had been published since 2019. Heterogeneity was high. Five studies assessed WGS for hospital surveillance and four analysed foodborne pathogens. Four were cost-benefit analyses, one was a cost-utility analysis, one was a cost-effectiveness analysis, one was a combined cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis, one combined cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analyses and one was a partial analysis. All studies supported the use of WGS as a surveillance tool on economic grounds. The available evidence supports the use of WGS for pathogen surveillance but is limited by marked heterogeneity. Further work should include analysis relevant to low- and middle-income countries and should use real-world effectiveness data.

"The effect of 48-weeks azithromycin therapy on levels of soluble biomarkers associated with HIV-associated chronic lung disease".

OBJECTIVES: HIV-associated immune activation contributes to chronic lung disease (CLD) in children and adolescents living with HIV. Azithromycin has immunomodulatory and anti-microbial properties that may be useful for treating HIV-associated CLD (HCLD). This study describes the effect of azithromycin on expression of plasma soluble biomarkers in children and adolescents with HCLD. METHODS: This study was nested within a multi-site double-blind, placebo controlled, randomised controlled trial (RCT) of azithromycin in individuals aged 6-19 years with HCLD (defined as FEV1 z-score < -1) in Malawi and Zimbabwe (BREATHE (NCT02426112)). Participants were randomized 1:1 to once-weekly oral azithromycin with weight-based dosing, for 48 weeks, or placebo. Twenty-six plasma soluble biomarkers were measured on a MagPix Luminex instrument at enrolment, after 48-weeks of treatment and 24-weeks after treatment cessation. Mixed effects models were constructed to compare biomarker expression across treatment and placebo groups. RESULTS: Weekly azithromycin was associated with reduced levels of C-Reactive Protein (CRP), E-Selectin, Matrix metalloproteinase 10 (MMP-10). Treatment effects for all soluble biomarkers were not sustained 24-weeks after treatment cessation with biomarker expression returning to pre-treatment levels. CONCLUSIONS: We observed real-world effects of azithromycin on acute inflammation, neutrophil accumulation, and extracellular matrix degradation, that were not sustained after treatment cessation. These results are pertinent when using azithromycin for its immunomodulatory properties, or targeting pathways represented by the soluble biomarkers in this study.

COVID-19 vaccine inequity in African low-income countries.

Equitable access and utilization of the COVID-19 vaccine is the main exit strategy from the pandemic. This paper used proceedings from the Second Extraordinary Think-Tank conference, which was held by the Health Economics and Policy Unit at the Kamuzu University of Health Sciences in collaboration with the Malawi Ministry of Health, complemented by a review of literature. We found disparities in COVID-19 vaccine coverage among low-income countries. This is also the case among high income countries. The disparities are driven mainly by insufficient supply, inequitable distribution, limited production of the vaccine in low-income countries, weak health systems, high vaccine hesitancy, and vaccine misconceptions. COVID-19 vaccine inequity continues to affect the entire world with the ongoing risks of emergence of new COVID-19 variants, increased morbidity and mortality and social and economic disruptions. In order to reduce the COVID-19 vaccination inequality in low-income countries, there is need to expand COVAX facility, waive intellectual property rights, transform knowledge and technology acquired into vaccines, and conduct mass COVID-19 vaccination campaigns.

Proposing the "Value- and Evidence-Based decision making and Practice" (VEDMAP) framework for Priority-Setting and knowledge translation in low and Middle-Income Countries: A novel framework for Decision-Making in Low-and middle income countries like Malawi.

The existence and availability of evidence on its own does not guarantee that the evidence will be demanded and used by decision and policy makers. Decision and policy-makers, especially in low-income settings, often confront ethical dilemmas about determining the best available evidence and its utilization. This dilemma can be in the form of conflict of evidence, scientific and ethical equipoise and competing evidence or interests. Consequently, decisions are made based on convenience, personal preference, donor requirements, and political and social considerations which can result in wastage of resources and inefficiency. To mitigate these challenges, the use of "Value- and Evidence-Based Decision Making and Practice" (VEDMAP) framework is proposed. This framework was developed by Joseph Mfutso-Bengo in 2017 through a desk review. It was pretested through a scoping study under the Thanzi la Onse (TLO) Project which assessed the feasibility and acceptability of using the VEDMAP as a priority setting tool for Health Technology Assessment (HTA) in Malawi. The study used mixed methods whereby it conducted a desk review to map out and benchmark normative values of different countries in Africa and HTA; focus group discussion and key informant interviews to map out the actual (practised) values in Malawi. The results of this review confirmed that the use of VEDMAP framework was feasible and acceptable and can bring efficiency, traceability, transparency and integrity in decision- policy making process and implementation.

Growth Profiles of Children and Adolescents Living with and without Perinatal HIV Infection in Southern Africa: A Secondary Analysis of Cohort Data.

Impaired linear growth and slower pubertal growth can be associated with perinatal HIV infection. We characterised growth relative to population norms, among the full adolescent period in southern Africa to better understand processes leading to morbidity in adulthood. We conducted a secondary analysis of 945 adolescents aged 8-20 years from urban Malawi and Zimbabwe; we included children with HIV (CWH), an uninfected comparison group from a cohort study, and CWH with co-morbid chronic lung disease (CLD) from a randomised controlled trial. We used latent class analysis of anthropometric Z-scores generated from British 1990 reference equations at two annual time-points, to identify growth trajectory profiles and used multinomial logistic regression to identify factors associated with growth profiles. Growth faltering (one or more of weight-for-age, height-for-age, or BMI-for-age Z-scores < -2) occurred in 38% (116/303) of CWH from the cohort study, 62% (209/336) of CWH with CLD, and 14% (44/306) of HIV-uninfected participants. We identified seven different growth profiles, defined, relatively, as (1) average growth, (2) tall not thin, (3) short not thin, (4) stunted not thin, (5) thin not stunted, (6) thin and stunted and (7) very thin and stunted. Females in profile 3 exhibited the highest body fat percentage, which increased over 1 year. Males at older age and CWH especially those with CLD were more likely to fall into growth profiles 4-7. Improvements in height-for-age Z-scores were observed in profiles 6-7 over 1 year. Interventions to target those with the worst growth faltering and longer-term follow-up to assess the impact on adult health are warranted.

Sputum bacterial load and bacterial composition correlate with lung function and are altered by long-term azithromycin treatment in children with HIV-associated chronic lung disease.

BACKGROUND: Long-term azithromycin (AZM) treatment reduces the frequency of acute respiratory exacerbation in children and adolescents with HIV-associated chronic lung disease (HCLD). However, the impact of this treatment on the respiratory bacteriome is unknown. METHOD: African children with HCLD (defined as forced expiratory volume in 1 s z-score (FEV1z) less than - 1.0 with no reversibility) were enrolled in a placebo-controlled trial of once-weekly AZM given for 48-weeks (BREATHE trial). Sputum samples were collected at baseline, 48 weeks (end of treatment) and 72 weeks (6 months post-intervention in participants who reached this timepoint before trial conclusion). Sputum bacterial load and bacteriome profiles were determined using 16S rRNA gene qPCR and V4 region amplicon sequencing, respectively. The primary outcomes were within-participant and within-arm (AZM vs placebo) changes in the sputum bacteriome measured across baseline, 48 weeks and 72 weeks. Associations between clinical or socio-demographic factors and bacteriome profiles were also assessed using linear regression. RESULTS: In total, 347 participants (median age: 15.3 years, interquartile range [12.7-17.7]) were enrolled and randomised to AZM (173) or placebo (174). After 48 weeks, participants in the AZM arm had reduced sputum bacterial load vs placebo arm (16S rRNA copies/µl in log10, mean difference and 95% confidence interval [CI] of AZM vs placebo - 0.54 [- 0.71; - 0.36]). Shannon alpha diversity remained stable in the AZM arm but declined in the placebo arm between baseline and 48 weeks (3.03 vs. 2.80, p = 0.04, Wilcoxon paired test). Bacterial community structure changed in the AZM arm at 48 weeks compared with baseline (PERMANOVA test p = 0.003) but resolved at 72 weeks. The relative abundances of genera previously associated with HCLD decreased in the AZM arm at 48 weeks compared with baseline, including Haemophilus (17.9% vs. 25.8%, p < 0.05, ANCOM ω = 32) and Moraxella (1% vs. 1.9%, p < 0.05, ANCOM ω = 47). This reduction was sustained at 72 weeks relative to baseline. Lung function (FEV1z) was negatively associated with bacterial load (coefficient, [CI]: - 0.09 [- 0.16; - 0.02]) and positively associated with Shannon diversity (0.19 [0.12; 0.27]). The relative abundance of Neisseria (coefficient, [standard error]: (2.85, [0.7], q = 0.01), and Haemophilus (- 6.1, [1.2], q < 0.001) were positively and negatively associated with FEV1z, respectively. An increase in the relative abundance of Streptococcus from baseline to 48 weeks was associated with improvement in FEV1z (3.2 [1.11], q = 0.01) whilst an increase in Moraxella was associated with decline in FEV1z (-2.74 [0.74], q = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: AZM treatment preserved sputum bacterial diversity and reduced the relative abundances of the HCLD-associated genera Haemophilus and Moraxella. These bacteriological effects were associated with improvement in lung function and may account for reduced respiratory exacerbations associated with AZM treatment of children with HCLD. Video Abstract.

The ethics of testing a test: randomized trials of the health impact of diagnostic tests for infectious diseases.

In the last decade, many new rapid diagnostic tests for infectious diseases have been developed. In general, these new tests are developed with the intent to optimize feasibility and population health, not accuracy alone. However, unlike drugs or vaccines, diagnostic tests are evaluated and licensed on the basis of accuracy, not health impact (eg, reduced morbidity or mortality). Thus, these tests are sometimes recommended or scaled up for purposes of improving population health without randomized evidence that they do so. We highlight the importance of randomized trials to evaluate the health impact of novel diagnostics and note that such trials raise distinctive ethical challenges of equipoise, equity, and informed consent. We discuss the distinction between equipoise for patient-important outcomes versus diagnostic accuracy, the equity implications of evaluating health impact of diagnostics under routine conditions, and the importance of offering reasonable choices for informed consent in diagnostic trials.

Cross-Cultural Adaptation of the Beta EQ-5D-Y-5L Into Chichewa (Malawi).

OBJECTIVES: The EuroQol Group is developing a new EQ-5D-Y-5L version with 5 severity levels for each of the 5 dimensions. The 5 severity levels describe different health severities and there is a potential for severity level inversion. This article aims to report the process of cross-cultural adaptation of the beta EQ-5D-Y-5L into Chichewa (Malawi) using the card ranking exercise, which has been added to the EQ-5D-Y-5L translation protocol. METHODS: To assess the correct hierarchical ordering of severity levels, the adaptation followed the EQ-5D-Y-5L translation protocol. Cognitive interviews were undertaken to establish conceptual equivalence. Thereafter, 4 iterations of ranking exercises were conducted, leading to amendments of the translated Chichewa version to arrive at a final version. RESULTS: The iterations were assessed by 18 participants aged 8 to 14 years. Health proved to be a difficult concept to translate as was "discomfort." Cognitive interviews identified further conceptual issues, particularly with the "looking after myself" dimension. Considerations about lack of soap or water indicated that some children did not fully comprehend this dimension as being about the ability to wash and dress themselves. The iterative card ranking exercise detected severity level inversion between "a little bit" and "some," and between "a lot" and "extreme" and alternative Chichewa words/phrases were then tested. Ultimately, the intended hierarchical severity ranking was achieved and an acceptable Chichewa version was produced. CONCLUSIONS: Conceptual and linguistic equivalence to the English EQ-5D-Y-5L was established for the Chichewa EQ-5D-Y-5L version. The card ranking exercise was instrumental in correcting severity level inversion and supporting the comprehensible translation.

Cost of wastewater-based environmental surveillance for SARS-CoV-2: Evidence from pilot sites in Blantyre, Malawi and Kathmandu, Nepal.

Environmental surveillance of rivers and wastewater for SARS-CoV-2 detection has been explored as an innovative way to surveil the pandemic. This study estimated the economic costs of conducting wastewater-based environmental surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 to inform decision making if countries consider continuing these efforts. We estimated the cost of two SARS-CoV-2 environmental surveillance pilot studies conducted in Blantyre, Malawi, and Kathmandu, Nepal. The cost estimation accounted for the consumables, equipment, and human resource time costs used for environmental surveillance from sample selection until pathogen detection and overhead costs for the projects. Costs are reported in 2021 US$ and reported as costs per month, per sample and person per year. The estimated costs for environmental surveillance range from $6,175 to $8,272 per month (Blantyre site) and $16,756 to $30,050 (Kathmandu site). The number of samples processed per month ranged from 84 to 336 at the Blantyre site and 96 to 250 at the Kathmandu site. Consumables costs are variable costs influenced by the number of samples processed and are a large share of the monthly costs for ES (ranging from 39% to 72%). The relatively higher costs per month for the Kathmandu site were attributable to the higher allocation of dedicated human resources and equipment to environmental surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 compared to the Blantyre site where these resources were shared with other activities. The average cost per sample ranged from $25 to $74 (Blantyre) and $120 to $175 (Kathmandu). There were associated economies of scale for human resources and equipment costs with increased sample processing and sharing of resources with other activities. The cost per person in the catchment area per year ranged from $0.07 to $0.10 in Blantyre and $0.07 to $0.13 in Kathmandu. Environmental surveillance may be a low-cost early warning signal for SARS-CoV-2 that can complement other SARS-CoV2 monitoring efforts.

Adherence to additional medication for management of HIV-associated comorbidities among older children and adolescents taking antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: Management of co-morbidities among persons living with HIV is an emerging priority, which may require additional medication over and above life-long antiretroviral therapy (ART). We explored factors associated with adherence to the trial drug among children and adolescents with perinatally acquired HIV taking antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the Bronchopulmonary Function in Response to Azithromycin Treatment for Chronic Lung Disease in HIV-Infected Children (BREATHE) trial. METHODS: The BREATHE trial recruited 6-19 year olds with perinatally acquired HIV and co-morbid chronic lung disease as measured by FEV1. This two-site trial was individually randomised (1:1), double-blind and placebo-controlled. Participants received a once-weekly weight-based dose of 1-5 tablets of azithromycin (AZM: 250mg) or placebo, taken orally. We used pharmacy dispensing records and count of returned pills to measure adherence to study medication. Logistic regression was used to explore factors associated with adherence coverage. Poisson regression with Lexis expansion for time was used to explore whether adherence modified the effect of azithromycin on the incidence of acute respiratory exacerbation, a secondary outcome of the trial. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02426112. RESULTS: The 347 participants (median age 15.3, 51% male) consumed 14,622 doses of study medication over 16,220 person-weeks under study. Adherence was higher for those randomised to AZM (73.4%) than placebo (68.4%) and declined over the 48 weeks of the study (Score test for trend <0.02). Those with unsuppressed HIV viral load at baseline had 2.08 (95% CI: 1.19, 3.63) times the odds of non-adherence than those with viral suppression. Differences were also observed between trial sites. CONCLUSION: The majority of children and adolescents tolerated the addition of a once-weekly dose of medication to their pill burden. Barriers in adhering to treatment for co-morbid conditions are likely common to barriers in adhering to ART. Control of co-morbidities will therefore present additional challenges in HIV care.

The impact of long-term azithromycin on antibiotic resistance in HIV-associated chronic lung disease.

Selection for resistance to azithromycin (AZM) and other antibiotics such as tetracyclines and lincosamides remains a concern with long-term AZM use for treatment of chronic lung diseases (CLD). We investigated the impact of 48 weeks of AZM on the carriage and antibiotic resistance of common respiratory bacteria among children with HIV-associated CLD. Nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs and sputa were collected at baseline, 48 and 72 weeks from participants with HIV-associated CLD randomised to receive weekly AZM or placebo for 48 weeks and followed post-intervention until 72 weeks. The primary outcomes were prevalence and antibiotic resistance of Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP), Staphylococcus aureus (SA), Haemophilus influenzae (HI) and Moraxella catarrhalis (MC) at these timepoints. Mixed-effects logistic regression and Fisher's exact test were used to compare carriage and resistance, respectively. Of 347 (174 AZM, 173 placebo) participants (median age 15 years (IQR 13-18), female 49%), NP carriage was significantly lower in the AZM (n=159) compared to placebo (n=153) arm for SP (18% versus 41%, p<0.001), HI (7% versus 16%, p=0.01) and MC (4% versus 11%, p=0.02); SP resistance to AZM (62% (18 out of 29) versus 13% (8 out of 63), p<0.0001) or tetracycline (60% (18 out of 29) versus 21% (13 out of 63), p<0.0001) was higher in the AZM arm. Carriage of SA resistant to AZM (91% (31 out of 34) versus 3% (1 out of 31), p<0.0001), tetracycline (35% (12 out of 34) versus 13% (4 out of 31), p=0.05) and clindamycin (79% (27 out of 34) versus 3% (1 out of 31), p<0.0001) was also significantly higher in the AZM arm and persisted at 72 weeks. Similar findings were observed for sputa. The persistence of antibiotic resistance and its clinical relevance for future infectious episodes requiring treatment needs further investigation.

TB morbidity estimates overlook the contribution of post-TB disability: evidence from urban Malawi.

INTRODUCTION: Despite growing evidence of the long-term impact of tuberculosis (TB) on quality of life, Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates of TB-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) do not include post-TB morbidity, and evaluations of TB interventions typically assume treated patients return to pre-TB health. Using primary data, we estimate years of life lost due to disability (YLDs), years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL) and DALYs associated with post-TB cardiorespiratory morbidity in a low-income country. METHODS: Adults aged ≥15 years who had successfully completed treatment for drug-sensitive pulmonary TB in Blantyre, Malawi (February 2016-April 2017) were followed-up for 3 years with 6-monthly and 12-monthly study visits. In this secondary analysis, St George's Respiratory Questionnaire data were used to match patients to GBD cardiorespiratory health states and corresponding disability weights (DWs) at each visit. YLDs were calculated for the study period and estimated for remaining lifespan using Malawian life table life expectancies. YLL were estimated using study mortality data and aspirational life expectancies, and post-TB DALYs derived. Data were disaggregated by HIV status and gender. RESULTS: At treatment completion, 222/403 (55.1%) participants met criteria for a cardiorespiratory DW, decreasing to 15.6% after 3 years, at which point two-thirds of the disability burden was experienced by women. Over 90% of projected lifetime-YLD were concentrated within the most severely affected 20% of survivors. Mean DWs in the 3 years post-treatment were 0.041 (HIV-) and 0.025 (HIV+), and beyond 3 years estimated as 0.025 (HIV-) and 0.010 (HIV+), compared with GBD DWs of 0.408 (HIV+) and 0.333 (HIV-) during active disease. Our results imply that the majority of TB-related morbidity occurs post-treatment. CONCLUSION: TB-related DALYs are greatly underestimated by overlooking post-TB disability. The total disability burden of TB is likely undervalued by both GBD estimates and economic evaluations of interventions, particularly those aimed at early diagnosis and prevention.