The Impact of Nurse Practitioner Care and Accountable Care Organization Assignment on Skilled Nursing Services and Hospital Readmissions.

BACKGROUND: Accountable care organizations (ACOs) and the employment of nurse practitioners (NP) in place of physicians are strategies that aim to reduce the cost and improve the quality of routine care delivered in skilled nursing facilities (SNF). The recent expansion of ACOs and nurse practitioners into SNF settings in the United States may be associated with improved health outcomes for patients. OBJECTIVES: To determine the relationship between ACO attribution and NP care delivery during SNF visits and the relationship between NP care delivery during SNF visits and unplanned hospital readmissions. METHODS: We obtained a sample of 527,329 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with 1 or more SNF stays between 2012 and 2017. We used logistic regression to measure the association between patient ACO attribution and evaluation and management care delivered by NPs in addition to the relationship between evaluation and management services delivered by NPs and hospital readmissions. RESULTS: ACO beneficiaries were 1.26% points more likely to receive 1 or more E&M services delivered by an NP during their SNF visits [Marginal Effect (ME): 0.0126; 95% CI: (0.009, 0.0160)]. ACO-attributed beneficiaries receiving most of their E&M services from NPs during their SNF visits were at a lower risk of readmission than ACO-attributed beneficiaries receiving no NP E&M care (5.9% vs. 7.1%; P <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Greater participation by the NPs in care delivery in SNFs was associated with a reduced risk of patient readmission to hospitals. ACOs attributed beneficiaries were more likely to obtain the benefits of greater nurse practitioner involvement in their care.

Developing an Adjunct Services Approach to Identify the Use of Procedures Not Covered by Health Insurance: The Case of In Vitro Fertilization.

BACKGROUND: Health care claims have an inherent limitation in that noncovered services are unreported. This limitation is particularly problematic when researchers wish to study the effects of changes in the insurance coverage of a service. In prior work, we studied the change in the use of in vitro fertilization (IVF) after an employer added coverage. To estimate IVF use before coverage began, we developed and tested an Adjunct Services Approach that identified patterns of covered services cooccurring with IVF. METHODS: Based on clinical expertise and guidelines, we developed a list of candidate adjunct services and used claims data after IVF coverage began to assess associations of those codes with known IVF cycles and whether any additional codes were also strongly associated with IVF. The algorithm was validated by primary chart review and was then used to infer IVF in the precoverage period. RESULTS: The selected algorithm included pelvic ultrasounds and either menotropin or ganirelix, yielding a sensitivity of 93.0% and specificity of >99.9%. DISCUSSION: The Adjunct Services Approach effectively assessed the change in IVF use postinsurance coverage. Our approach can be adapted to study IVF in other settings or to study other medical services experiencing coverage changes (eg, fertility preservation, bariatric surgery, and sex confirmation surgery). Overall, we find that an Adjunct Services Approach can be useful when (1) clinical pathways exist to define services delivered adjunct to the noncovered service, (2) those pathways are followed for most patients receiving the service, and (3) similar patterns of adjunct services occur infrequently with other procedures.

Impact of Spousal Death on Healthcare Costs and Use Among Medicare Beneficiaries: NHATS 2011-2017.

BACKGROUND: Spousal death is associated with elevated mortality in the surviving partner; less is known about how healthcare costs and use change following spousal death. OBJECTIVES: To examine the causal impact of spousal death on Medicare costs and use over time. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study with an event study design. SETTING: National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) with linked Medicare claims. PARTICIPANTS: Respondents from 2011-2017 who reported spousal death the prior year, limited to those with traditional Medicare (n=491 with 9,766 respondent-quarters). MAIN MEASURES: Total Medicare costs; binary indicators for acute hospitalization; emergency department; sub-acute care (including skilled nursing, rehabilitation, and long-term care); and number of outpatient management visits on a quarterly basis 3 years before and after spousal death. KEY RESULTS: During the first year post-death, quarterly Medicare costs for the surviving spouse were $1,092 higher than pre-death; probability of hospitalization, emergency department, and sub-acute care were 3.3%, 2.8%, and 2.2% higher, respectively; and there were 0.3 more outpatient visits (p<.01 for all). Several outcomes continued to be elevated during the second year, including costs ($1,174 higher per quarter), hospitalization (3.2% higher), and sub-acute care (2.9% higher; p<.01 for all). By the third year, costs returned to pre-death level but hospitalization and sub-acute care (2.9% and 3.1% higher per quarter; p<.05 for both) remained elevated. Cost increases in the first and second years post-death were larger if the deceased spouse was a caregiver ($1,588 and $1,853 per quarter) or female (i.e., among bereaved males; $1,457 and $1,632 per quarter; p<.05 for all). CONCLUSIONS: Spousal death increased total Medicare costs and use of all healthcare categories among the surviving partner; elevations in hospitalization and sub-acute care persisted through the third year. Clinicians and payors may want to target surviving partners as a high-risk population.

Cost Consequences of Age and Comorbidity in Accelerated Postoperative Discharge After Colectomy.

BACKGROUND: Prospective payment models have incentivized reductions in length of stay after surgery. The benefits of abbreviated postoperative hospitalization could be undermined by increased readmissions or postacute care use, particularly for older adults or those with comorbid conditions. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine whether hospitals with accelerated postsurgical discharge accrue total episode savings or incur greater postdischarge payments among patients stratified by age and comorbidity. DESIGN: This was a retrospective cross-sectional study. SETTING: National data from the 100% Medicare Provider Analysis and Review files for July 2012 to June 2015 were used. PATIENTS: We included Medicare beneficiaries undergoing elective colectomy and stratified the cohort by age (65-69, 70-79, ≥80 y) and Elixhauser comorbidity score (low: ≤0; medium: 1-5; and high: >5). Patients were categorized by the hospital's mode length of stay, reflecting "usual" care. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: In a multilevel model, we compared mean total episode payments and components thereof among age and comorbidity categories, stratified by hospital mode length of stay. RESULTS: Among 88,860 patients, mean total episode payments were lower in shortest versus longest length of stay hospitals across all age and comorbidity strata and were similar between age groups (65-69 y: $28,951 vs $30,566, p = 0.014; 70-79 y: $31,157 vs $32,044, p = 0.073; ≥80 y: $33,779 vs $35,771, p = 0.005) but greater among higher comorbidity (low: $23,107 vs $24,894, p = 0.001; medium: $30,809 vs $32,282, p = 0.038; high: $44,097 vs $46641, p < 0.001). Postdischarge payments were similar among length-of-stay hospitals by age (65-69 y: ∆$529; 70-79 y: ∆$291; ≥80 y: ∆$872, p = 0.25) but greater among high comorbidity (low: ∆$477; medium: ∆$480; high: ∆$1059; p = 0.02). LIMITATIONS: Administrative data do not capture patient-level factors that influence postacute care use (preference, caregiver availability). CONCLUSIONS: Hospitals achieving shortest length of stay after surgery accrue lower total episode payments without a compensatory increase in postacute care spending, even among patients at oldest age and with greatest comorbidity. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/B624. CONSECUENCIAS DE LA EDAD Y LAS COMORBILIDADES ASOCIADAS, EN EL COSTO DE LA ATENCIN EN PACIENTES SOMETIDOS A COLECTOMA EN PROGRAMAS DE ALTA POSOPERATORIA ACELERADA: ANTECEDENTES:Los modelos de pago prospectivo, han sido un incentivo para reducir la estancia hospitalaria después de la cirugía. Los beneficios de una hospitalización posoperatoria "abreviada" podrían verse afectados por un aumento en los reingresos o en la necesidad de cuidados postoperatorios tempranos luego del periodo agudo, particularmente en los adultos mayores o en aquellos con comorbilidades.OBJETIVO:Determinar si los hospitales que han establecido protocolos de alta posoperatoria "acelerada" generan un ahorro en cada episodio de atención o incurren en mayores gastos después del alta, entre los pacientes estratificados por edad y por comorbilidades.DISEÑO:Estudio transversal retrospectivo.AJUSTE:Revisión a partir de la base de datos nacional del 100% de los archivos del Medicare Provider Analysis and Review desde julio de 2012 hasta junio de 2015.PACIENTES:Se incluye a los beneficiarios de Medicare a quienes se les practicó una colectomía electiva. La cohorte se estratificó por edad (65-69 años, 70-79, ≥80) y por la puntuación de comorbilidad de Elixhauser (baja: ≤0; media: 1-5; y alta: > 5). Los pacientes se categorizaron de acuerdo con la modalidad de la duración de la estancia hospitalaria del hospital, lo que representa lo que se considera es una atención usual para dicho centro.PRINCIPALES MEDIDAS DE RESULTADO:En un modelo multinivel, comparamos la media de los pagos por episodio y los componentes de los mismos, entre las categorías de edad y comorbilidad, estratificados por la modalidad de la duración de la estancia hospitalaria.RESULTADOS:En los 88,860 pacientes, los pagos promedio por episodio fueron menores en los hospitales con una modalidad de estancia más corta frente a los de mayor duración, en todos los estratos de edad y comorbilidad, y fueron similares entre los grupos de edad (65-69: $28,951 vs $30,566, p = 0,014; 70-79: $31,157 vs $32,044, p = 0,073; ≥ 80 $33,779 vs $35,771, p = 0,005), pero mayor entre los pacientes con comorbilidades más altas (baja: $23,107 vs $24,894, p = 0,001; media $30,809 vs $32,282, p = 0,038; alta: $44,097 vs $46,641, p <0,001). Los pagos generados luego del alta hospitalaria fueron similares con relación a la estancia hospitalaria de los diferentes hospitales con respecto a la edad (65-69 años: ∆ $529; 70-79 años: ∆ $291; ≥80 años: ∆ $872, p = 0,25), pero mayores en aquellos con más alta comorbilidad (baja ∆ $477, medio ∆ $480, alto ∆ $1059, p = 0,02).LIMITACIONES:Las bases de datos administrativas no capturan los factores del paciente que influyen en el cuidado luego del estado posoperatorio agudo (preferencia, disponibilidad del proveedor del cuidado).CONCLUSIONES:Los hospitales que logran una estancia hospitalaria más corta después de la cirugía, acumulan pagos más bajos por episodio, sin un incremento compensatorio del gasto en la atención pos-aguda, incluso entre pacientes de mayor edad y con mayor comorbilidad. Consulte Video Resumen en http://links.lww.com/DCR/B624. (Traducción-Dr Eduardo Londoño-Schimmer).

Hospital-physician integration and risk-coding intensity.

Hospital-physician integration has surged in recent years. Integration may allow hospitals to share resources and management practices with their integrated physicians that increase the reported diagnostic severity of their patients. Greater diagnostic severity will increase practices' payment under risk-based arrangements. We offer the first analysis of whether hospital-physician integration affects providers' coding of patient severity. Using a two-way fixed effects model, an event study, and a stacked difference-in-differences analysis of 5 million patient-year observations from 2010 to 2015, we find that the integration of a patient's primary care doctor is associated with a robust 2%-4% increase in coded severity, the risk-score equivalent of aging a physician's patients by 4-8 months. This effect was not driven by physicians treating different patients nor by physicians seeing patients more often. Our evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that hospitals share organizational resources with acquired physician practices to increase the measured clinical severity of patients. Increases in the intensity of coding will improve vertically-integrated practices' performance in alternative payment models and pay-for-performance programs while raising overall health care spending.

Clinical and Economic Outcomes of Enhanced Recovery Dissemination in Michigan Hospitals.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate real-world effects of enhanced recovery protocol (ERP) dissemination on clinical and economic outcomes after colectomy. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Hospitals aiming to accelerate discharge and reduce spending after surgery are increasingly adopting perioperative ERPs. Despite their efficacy in specialty institutions, most studies have lacked adequate control groups and diverse hospital settings and have considered only in-hospital costs. There remain concerns that accelerated discharge might incur unintended consequences. METHODS: Retrospective, population-based cohort including patients in 72 hospitals in the Michigan Surgical Quality Collaborative clinical registry (N = 13,611) and/or Michigan Value Collaborative claims registry (N = 14,800) who underwent elective colectomy, 2012 to 2018. Marginal effects of ERP on clinical outcomes and risk-adjusted, price-standardized 90-day episode payments were evaluated using mixed-effects models to account for secular trends and hospital performance unrelated to ERP. RESULTS: In 24 ERP hospitals, patients Post-ERP had significantly shorter length of stay than those Pre-ERP (5.1 vs 6.5 days, P < 0.001), lower incidence of complications (14.6% vs 16.9%, P < 0.001) and readmissions (10.4% vs 11.3%, P = 0.02), and lower episode payments ($28,550 vs $31,192, P < 0.001) and postacute care ($3,384 vs $3,909, P < 0.001). In mixed-effects adjusted analyses, these effects were significantly attenuated-ERP was associated with a marginal length of stay reduction of 0.4 days (95% confidence interval 0.2-0.6 days, P = 0.001), and no significant difference in complications, readmissions, or overall spending. CONCLUSIONS: ERPs are associated with small reduction in postoperative length of hospitalization after colectomy, without unwanted increases in readmission or postacute care spending. The real-world effects across a variety of hospitals may be smaller than observed in early-adopting specialty centers.

Comparative Effectiveness of Neoadjuvant Therapy and Upfront Resection for Patients with Resectable Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma: An Instrumental Variable Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) is increasingly being used in the management of patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC); however, there is a lack of evidence regarding the benefit among these patients. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate overall survival (OS) in PDAC patients with resectable disease treated with NAT or upfront resection through instrumental variable (IV) analysis. DESIGN: A national cohort study of resectable PDAC patients in the National Cancer Data Base (2007-2015) treated with either upfront surgery or resection after NAT. Using multivariable modeling and IV methods, OS was compared between those treated with NAT and upfront resection. The IV was hospital-level NAT utilization in the most recent year prior to treatment. RESULTS: The cohort included 16,666 patients (14,012 upfront resection; 2654 NAT) treated at 779 hospitals. Among those treated with upfront resection, 59.9% received any adjuvant therapy. NAT patients had higher median (27.9 months, 95% confidence interval [CI] 26.2-29.1) and 5-year OS (24.1%, 95% CI 21.9-26.3%) compared with those treated with upfront surgery (median 21.2 months, 95% CI 20.7-21.6; 5-year survival 20.9%, 95% CI 20.1-21.7%). After multivariable modeling, NAT was associated with an approximately 20% decrease in the risk of death (hazard ratio [HR] 0.78, 95% CI 0.73-0.84), and this effect was magnified in the IV analysis (HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.47-0.79). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with resectable PDAC, NAT is associated with improved survival relative to upfront resection. Given the benefits of multimodality therapy and the challenges in receiving adjuvant therapy, consideration should be given to treating all PDAC patients with NAT.

The Relationship Between Imaging and Thyroid Cancer Diagnosis and Survival.

BACKGROUND: Controversy exists over whether there has been a true increase in the occurrence of thyroid cancer or overdiagnosis secondary to imaging practices. Because cancer overdiagnosis is associated with detection of indolent disease, overdiagnosis can be associated with perceived improvement in survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare linked database was used to determine the relationship between type of imaging leading to thyroid cancer diagnosis and survival. Disease-specific and overall survival were evaluated in 11,945 patients aged ≥66 years with differentiated thyroid cancer diagnosed between January 1, 2001, and September 30, 2015, who prior to their cancer diagnosis initially underwent thyroid ultrasound versus other imaging capturing the neck. Analyses were performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards model with propensity score. RESULTS: Patients who underwent thyroid ultrasound as compared with other imaging had improved disease-specific and overall survival (p < .001, p < .001). However, those who underwent thyroid ultrasound were less likely to have comorbidities (p < .001) and more likely to be younger (p < .001), be female (p < .001), have localized cancer (p < .001), and have tumor size ≤1 cm (p < .001). After using propensity score analysis and adjusting for tumor characteristics, type of initial imaging still correlated with better overall survival but no longer correlated with better disease-specific survival. CONCLUSION: There is improved disease-specific survival in patients diagnosed with thyroid cancer after thyroid ultrasound as compared with after other imaging. However, better disease-specific survival is related to these patients being younger and healthier and having lower-risk cancer, suggesting that thyroid ultrasound screening contributes to cancer overdiagnosis. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: The findings from this study have implications for patients, physicians, and policy makers. Patients who have thyroid ultrasound as their initial imaging are fundamentally different from those who are diagnosed after other imaging. Because patients undergoing ultrasound are younger and healthier and are diagnosed with lower-risk thyroid cancer, they are less likely to die of their thyroid cancer. However, being diagnosed with thyroid cancer can lead to cancer-related worry and create risks for harm from treatments. Thus, efforts are needed to reduce inappropriate use of ultrasound, abide by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendations, and apply nodule risk stratification tools when appropriate.

Quality of Care in Chronic Kidney Disease and Incidence of End-stage Renal Disease in Older Patients: A Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The quality of care received by a growing number of older patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) has not been adequately examined. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the quality of CKD care among older patients and to clarify its association with the incidence of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). RESEARCH DESIGN: This was a population-based cohort study. SUBJECTS: Older (65 y and above) CKD patients diagnosed between October 2010 and September 2014 from the National Database of Health Insurance Claims of Japan. MEASURES: A composite quality score (QS) of 3 quality measures for CKD care during the 6 months after CKD diagnosis was computed. The validated quality measures included urine testing for proteinuria, nutritional guidance, and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs avoidance. To assess the association between the QS and ESRD incidence, we used instrumental variable analysis after stratification for the history of diabetes. RESULTS: Among the 890,773 older CKD patients, 2.9% progressed to ESRD (incidence rate of 12.5 per thousand person-years). In total, 59.9% underwent urine testing, 4.5% received nutritional guidance, and 91.2% avoided regular use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. An instrumental variable analysis revealed that a higher QS was associated with-lower ESRD incidence in patients diagnosed with diabetes (hazard ratio: 0.25, 95% confidence interval: 0.24-0.27 for each point higher score) but not in patients without a diagnosis of diabetes (hazard ratio: 0.99, 95% confidence interval: 0.92-1.05). CONCLUSION: Among older CKD patients, quality of CKD care varied between patients, and better quality of CKD care was associated with a lower ESRD incidence in patients with diabetes but not in nondiabetic patients.

Low-Value Care and Clinician Engagement in a Large Medicare Shared Savings Program ACO: a Survey of Frontline Clinicians.

BACKGROUND: Although the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) created new incentives for organizations to improve healthcare value, Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) have achieved only modest reductions in the use of low-value care. OBJECTIVE: To assess ACO engagement of clinicians and whether engagement was associated with clinicians' reported difficulty implementing recommendations against low-value care. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey of ACO clinicians in 2018. PARTICIPANTS: 1289 clinicians in the Physician Organization of Michigan ACO, including generalist physicians (18%), internal medicine specialists (16%), surgeons (10%), other physician specialists (27%), and advanced practice providers (29%). Response rate was 34%. MAIN MEASURES: Primary exposures included clinicians' participation in ACO decision-making, awareness of ACO incentives, perceived influence on practice, and perceived quality improvement. Our primary outcome was clinicians' reported difficulty implementing recommendations against low-value care. RESULTS: Few clinicians participated in the decision to join the ACO (3%). Few clinicians were aware of ACO incentives, including knowing the ACO was accountable for both spending and quality (23%), successfully lowered spending (9%), or faced upside risk only (3%). Few agreed (moderately or strongly) the ACO changed compensation (20%), practice (19%), or feedback (15%) or that it improved care coordination (17%) or inappropriate care (13%). Clinicians reported they had difficulty following recommendations against low-value care 18% of the time; clinicians reported patients had difficulty accepting recommendations 36% of the time. Increased ACO awareness (1 standard deviation [SD]) was associated with decreased difficulty (- 2.3 percentage points) implementing recommendations (95% confidence interval [CI] - 3.8, - 0.7), as was perceived quality improvement (1 SD increase, - 2.1 percentage points, 95% CI, - 3.4, - 0.8). Participation in ACO decision-making and perceived influence on practice were not associated with recommendation implementation. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians participating in a large Medicare ACO were broadly unaware of and unengaged with ACO objectives and activities. Whether low clinician engagement limits ACO efforts to reduce low-value care warrants further longitudinal study.

Achieving the High-Value Colectomy: Preventing Complications or Improving Efficiency.

BACKGROUND: There is increased focus on the value of surgical care. Postoperative complications decrease value, but it is unknown whether high-value hospitals spend less than low-value hospitals in cases without complications. Previous studies have not evaluated both expenditures and validated outcomes in the same patients, limiting the understanding of interactions between clinical performance, efficient utilization of services, and costliness of surgical episodes. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to identify payment differences between low- and high-value hospitals in colectomy cases without adverse outcomes using a linked data set of multipayer claims and validated clinical outcomes. DESIGN: This is a retrospective observational cohort study. We assigned each hospital a value score (ratio of cases without adverse outcome to mean episode payment). We stratified hospitals into tertiles by value and used analysis of variance tests to compare payments between low- and high-value hospitals, first for all cases, and then cases without adverse outcome. SETTING: January 2012 to December 2016, this investigation used clinical registry data from 56 hospitals participating in the Michigan Surgical Quality Collaborative, linked with 30-day episode payments from the Michigan Value Collaborative. PATIENTS: A total of 2947 patients undergoing elective colectomy were selected. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measured was risk-adjusted, price-standardized 30-day episode payments. RESULTS: The mean adjusted complication rate was 31% (±10.7%) at low-value hospitals and 14% (±4.6%) at high-value hospitals (p < 0.001). Low-value hospitals were paid $3807 (17%) more than high-value hospitals ($22,271 vs $18,464, p < 0.001). Among cases without adverse outcome, payments were still $2257 (11%) higher in low-value hospitals ($19,424 vs $17,167, p = 0.04). LIMITATIONS: This study focused on outcomes and did not consider processes of care as drivers of value. CONCLUSIONS: In elective colectomy, high-value hospitals achieve lower episode payments than low-value hospitals for cases without adverse outcome, indicating mechanisms for increasing value beyond reducing complications. Worthwhile targets to optimize value in elective colectomy may include enhanced recovery protocols or other interventions that increase efficiency in all phases of care. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/B56. LOGRANDO LA COLECTOMÍA DE ALTO VALOR: PREVINIENDO COMPLICACIONES O MEJORANDO LA EFICIENCIA: Hay un mayor enfoque en el valor de la atención quirúrgica. Las complicaciones postoperatorias disminuyen el valor, pero se desconoce si en los casos sin complicaciones, los hospitales de alto valor gastan menos que los hospitales de bajo valor. Estudios anteriores no han evaluado ambos gastos y validado resultados en los mismos pacientes, limitando la comprensión de las interacciones entre el rendimiento clínico, utilización eficiente de los servicios y costos de los episodios quirúrgicos.Identificar las diferencias de pago entre los hospitales de alto y bajo valor, en casos de colectomía sin resultados adversos, utilizando un conjunto de datos vinculados de reclamos de pago múltiple y resultados clínicos validados.Estudio de cohorte observacional retrospectivo. Asignamos a cada hospital una puntuación de valor (proporción de casos sin resultado adverso al pago medio del episodio). Estratificamos los hospitales por valor en terciles y utilizamos el análisis de pruebas de varianza para comparar los pagos entre hospitales de bajo y alto valor, primero para todos los casos y luego casos sin resultados adversos.De enero del 2012 a diciembre del 2016, utilizando datos de registro clínico de 56 hospitales que participan en el Michigan Surgical Quality Collaborative, vinculado con pagos de episodios de 30 días, del Michigan Value Collaborative.Un total de 2947 pacientes con colectomía electiva.Pagos por episodio de 30 días, ajustados al riesgo y estandarizados por precio.La tasa media de complicación ajustada fue de 31% (±10.7%) en hospitales de bajo valor y 14% (±4.6%) en hospitales de alto valor (p < 0.001). A los hospitales de bajo valor se les pagó $3807 (17%) más que a los hospitales de alto valor ($22,271 frente a $18,464, p < 0.001). Entre los casos sin resultados adversos, los pagos fueron de $2257 (11%) más altos en hospitales de bajo valor ($19,424 vs $17,167, p = 0.04).Este estudio se centró en los resultados y no se consideraron a los procesos de atención, como impulsores de valor.En la colectomía electiva, los hospitales de alto valor logran pagos de episodios más bajos, que en los hospitales de bajo valor con casos sin resultados adversos, indicando mecanismos para aumentar el valor, más allá que la reducción de complicaciones. Objetivos valiosos para optimizar el valor de la colectomía electiva, pueden incluir mejoras en los protocolos de recuperación, así como otras intervenciones que aumenten la eficiencia en todas las fases de la atención. Vea el resumen del video en http://links.lww.com/DCR/B56.

Performance in the Medicare Shared Savings Program After Accounting for Nonrandom Exit: An Instrumental Variable Analysis.

Background: Accountable care organizations (ACOs) in the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) are associated with modest savings. However, prior research may overstate this effect if high-cost clinicians exit ACOs. Objective: To evaluate the effect of the MSSP on spending and quality while accounting for clinicians' nonrandom exit. Design: Similar to prior MSSP analyses, this study compared MSSP ACO participants versus control beneficiaries using adjusted longitudinal models that accounted for secular trends, market factors, and beneficiary characteristics. To further account for selection effects, the share of nearby clinicians in the MSSP was used as an instrumental variable. Hip fracture served as a falsification outcome. The authors also tested for compositional changes among MSSP participants. Setting: Fee-for-service Medicare, 2008 through 2014. Patients: A 20% sample (97 204 192 beneficiary-quarters). Measurements: Total spending, 4 quality indicators, and hospitalization for hip fracture. Results: In adjusted longitudinal models, the MSSP was associated with spending reductions (change, -$118 [95% CI, -$151 to -$85] per beneficiary-quarter) and improvements in all 4 quality indicators. In instrumental variable models, the MSSP was not associated with spending (change, $5 [CI, -$51 to $62] per beneficiary-quarter) or quality. In falsification tests, the MSSP was associated with hip fracture in the adjusted model (-0.24 hospitalizations for hip fracture [CI, -0.32 to -0.16 hospitalizations] per 1000 beneficiary-quarters) but not in the instrumental variable model (0.05 hospitalizations [CI, -0.10 to 0.20 hospitalizations] per 1000 beneficiary-quarters). Compositional changes were driven by high-cost clinicians exiting ACOs: High-cost clinicians (99th percentile) had a 30.4% chance of exiting the MSSP, compared with a 13.8% chance among median-cost clinicians (50th percentile). Limitation: The study used an observational design and administrative data. Conclusion: After adjustment for clinicians' nonrandom exit, the MSSP was not associated with improvements in spending or quality. Selection effects-including exit of high-cost clinicians-may drive estimates of savings in the MSSP. Primary Funding Source: Horowitz Foundation for Social Policy, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and National Institute on Aging.

Putting Providers At-Risk through Capitation or Shared Savings: How Strong are Incentives for Upcoding and Treatment Changes?

BACKGROUND: Alternative payment models, including Accountable Care Organizations and fully capitated models, change incentives for treatment over fee-for-service models and are widely used in a variety of settings. The level of payment may affect the assignment to a payment category, but to date the upcoding literature has been motivated largely incorporating financial penalties for upcoding rather than by a theoretical model that incorporates the downstream effects of upcoding on service provision requirements. AIMS OF THE STUDY: In this paper, we contribute to the literature on upcoding by developing a new theoretical model that is applicable to capitated, case-rate and shared savings payment systems. This model incorporates the downstream effects of upcoding on service provision requirements rather than just the avoidance of penalties. This difference is important especially for shared-savings models with quality benchmarks. METHODS: We test implications of our theoretical model on changes in severity determination and service use associated with changes in case-rate payments in a publicly-funded mental health care system. We model provider-assigned severity categories as a function of risk-adjusted capitated payments using conditional logit regressions and counts of service days per month using negative binomial models. RESULTS: We find that severity determination is only weakly associated with the payment rate, with relatively small upcoding effects, but that level of use shows a greater degree of association. DISCUSSION: These results are consistent with our theoretical predictions where the marginal utility of savings or profit is small, as would be expected from public sector agencies. Upcoding did seem to occur, but at very small levels and may have been mitigated after the county and providers had some experience with the new system. The association between the payment levels and the number of service days in a month, however, was significant in the first period, and potentially at a clinically important level. Limitations include data from a single county/multiple provider system and potential unmeasured confounding during the post-implementation period. IMPLICATIONS FOR HEALTH CARE PROVISION AND USE: Providers in our data were not at risk for inpatient services but decreases in use of outpatient services associated with rate decreases may lead to further increases in inpatient use and therefore expenditures over time. IMPLICATIONS FOR HEALTH POLICIES: Health program directors and policy makers need to be acutely aware of the interplay between provider payments and patient care and eventual health and mental health outcomes. IMPLICATIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH: Further research could examine the implications of the theoretical model of upcoding in other payment systems, estimate the power of the tiered-risk systems, and examine their influence on clinical outcomes.

Intersectoral Costs and Benefits of Mental and Behavioural Disorders in the Education Sector: an Exploration of Costing Methods.

BACKGROUND: The inclusion of indirect spillover costs and benefits that occur in non-healthcare sectors of society is necessary to make optimal societal decisions when assessing the cost effectiveness of healthcare interventions. Education costs and benefits are relevant in the disease area of mental and behavioral disorders, but their inclusion in economic evaluations is largely neglected due to lack of methodological knowledge. AIM OF THE STUDY: This study aims to explore, using a scoping review, the identification, measurement, and valuation methods used to assess the impact of mental and behavioural disorders on education costs and benefits. METHODS: A scoping review was conducted to identify articles that were set in the education sector and assessed education costs and benefits. An adapted 5-step approach was used: (i) initating a scoping review; (ii) identifying component studies; (iii) data extraction; (iv) reporting results; (v) discussion and interpretation of findings. Results were summarized in a narrative synthesis per identification, measurement, and valuation method. RESULTS: 177 component articles were identified in the scoping review that reported 61 mutually exclusive education costs and benefits. The nomenclature used to describe the costs and benefits was poorly defined, heterogeneous in nature and largely context dependent. This was also reflected in the diverse number of measurement and valuation methods found in the component articles. DISCUSSION: This is the first study, which offers a classification of education costs and benefits and costing methods reported by studies set in the education sector. In conclusion, mental and behavioral disorders have a notable impact on a variety of different education costs and benefits. IMPLICATIONS FOR HEALTH POLICIES: The classification provided in the current study gives an indication of the wide-spread impact of mental and behavioral disorders on the education sector. Hence, the inclusion of relevant education costs and benefits in economic evaluations for mental and behavioral disorders is necessary to make optimal societal decisions. IMPLICATIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH: By exploring a new area of research from a sector-specific perspective, the current study adds to the existing intersectoral cost and benefit literature base. Future research should focus on standardizing costing methods in pharmacoeconomic guidelines and assessing the relative importance of individual education costs and benefits in economic evaluations for specific interventions and diseases.

Association Between Hospital Participation in Medicare Shared Savings Program Accountable Care Organizations and Readmission Following Major Surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of Medicare Shared Savings Program accountable care organizations (ACOs) on hospital readmission after common surgical procedures. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Hospital readmissions following surgery lead to worse patient outcomes and wasteful spending. ACOs, and their associated hospitals, have strong incentives to reduce readmissions from 2 distinct Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services policies. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using a 20% national Medicare sample to identify beneficiaries undergoing 1 of 7 common surgical procedures-abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, colectomy, cystectomy, prostatectomy, lung resection, total knee arthroplasty, and total hip arthroplasty-between 2010 and 2014. The primary outcome was 30-day risk-adjusted readmission rate. We performed difference-in-differences analyses using multilevel logistic regression models to quantify the effect of hospital ACO affiliation on readmissions following these procedures. RESULTS: Patients underwent a procedure at one of 2974 hospitals, of which 389 were ACO affiliated. The 30-day risk-adjusted readmission rate decreased from 8.4% (95% CI, 8.1-8.7%) to 7.0% (95% CI, 6.7-7.3%) for ACO affiliated hospitals (P < 0.001) and from 7.9% (95% CI, 7.8-8.0%) to 7.1% (95% CI, 6.9-7.2%) for non-ACO hospitals (P < 0.001). The difference-in-differences of the 2 trends demonstrated an additional 0.52% (95% CI, 0.97-0.078%) absolute reduction in readmissions at ACO hospitals (P = 0.021), which would translate to 4410 hospitalizations avoided. CONCLUSION: Readmissions following common procedures decreased significantly from 2010 to 2014. Hospital affiliation with Shared Savings ACOs was associated with significant additional reductions in readmissions. This emphasis on readmission reduction is 1 mechanism through which ACOs improve value in a surgical population.

Testing for family influences on obesity: The role of genetic nurture.

A large literature has documented strong positive correlations among siblings in health, including body mass index (BMI) and obesity. This paper tests whether that is explained by a specific type of peer effect in obesity: genetic nurture. Specifically, we test whether an individual's weight is affected by the genes of their sibling, controlling for the individual's own genes. Using genetic data in Add Health, we find no credible evidence that an individual's BMI is affected by the polygenic risk score for BMI of their full sibling when controlling for the individual's own polygenic risk score for BMI. Thus, we find no evidence that the positive correlations in BMI between siblings are attributable to genetic nurture within families.

Variation in prostate cancer treatment and spending among Medicare shared savings program accountable care organizations.

BACKGROUND: Accountable care organizations (ACOs) have been shown to reduce prostate cancer treatment among men unlikely to benefit because of competing risks (ie, potential overtreatment). This study assessed whether the level of engagement in ACOs by urologists affected rates of treatment, overtreatment, and spending. METHODS: A 20% sample of national Medicare data was used to identify men diagnosed with prostate cancer between 2012 and 2014. The extent of urologist engagement in an ACO, as measured by the proportion of patients in an ACO managed by an ACO-participating urologist, served as the exposure. The use of treatment, potential overtreatment (ie, treatment in men with a ≥75% risk of 10-year noncancer mortality), and average payments in the year after diagnosis for each ACO were modeled. RESULTS: Among 2822 men with newly diagnosed prostate cancer, the median rates of treatment and potential overtreatment by an ACO were 71.3% (range, 23.6%-79.5%) and 53.6% (range, 12.4%-76.9%), respectively. Average Medicare payments among ACOs in the year after diagnosis ranged from $16,523.52 to $34,766.33. Stronger urologist-ACO engagement was not associated with treatment (odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.6-1.2; P = .4) or spending (9.7% decrease in spending; P = .08). However, urologist engagement was associated with a lower likelihood of potential overtreatment (odds ratio, 0.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.1-0.86; P = .03). CONCLUSIONS: ACOs vary widely in treatment, potential overtreatment, and spending for prostate cancer. ACOs with stronger urologist engagement are less likely to treat men with a high risk of noncancer mortality, and this suggests that organizations that better engage specialists may be able to improve the value of specialty care. Cancer 2018. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Early effect of Medicare Shared Savings Program accountable care organization participation on prostate cancer care.

BACKGROUND: Accountable care organizations (ACOs) can improve prostate cancer care by decreasing treatment variations (ie, avoidance of treatment in low-value settings). Herein, the authors performed a study to understand the effect of Medicare Shared Savings Program ACOs on prostate cancer care. METHODS: Using a 20% Medicare sample, the authors identified men with newly diagnosed prostate cancer from 2010 through 2013. Rates of treatment, potential overtreatment (ie, treatment in men with a ≥75% chance of 10-year mortality from competing risks), and Medicare payments were measured using regression models. The impact of ACO participation was assessed using difference-in-differences analyses. RESULTS: Before implementation of ACOs, the treatment rate was 71.8% (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 70.2%-73.3%) for ACO-aligned beneficiaries and 72.3% (95% CI, 71.7%-73.0% [P = .51]) for non-ACO-aligned beneficiaries. After implementation, this rate declined to 68.4% (95% CI, 66.1%-70.7% [P = .017]) for ACO-aligned beneficiaries and 69.3% (95% CI, 68.5%-70.1% [P<.001]) for non-ACO-aligned beneficiaries. There was no differential effect noted for ACO participation. The rate of potential overtreatment decreased from 48.2% (95% CI, 43.1%-53.3%) to 40.2% (95% CI, 32.4%-48.0% [P = .087]) for ACO-aligned beneficiaries and increased from 44.3% (95% CI, 42.1%-46.5%) to 47.0% (95% CI, 44.5%-49.5% [P = .11]) for non-ACO-aligned beneficiaries. These changes resulted in a significant relative decrease in overtreatment of 17% for ACO-aligned beneficiaries (difference-in-differences, 10.8%; P = .031). Payments were not found to be differentially affected by ACO alignment. CONCLUSIONS: The treatment of prostate cancer and annual payments decreased significantly between 2010 and 2013, but ACO participation did not appear to impact these trends. Among men least likely to benefit, Medicare Shared Savings Program ACO alignment was associated with a significant decline in prostate cancer treatment. Cancer 2018;124:563-70. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Strategies for Reducing Population Surgical Costs in Medicare: Local Referrals to Low-cost Hospitals.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to assess hospital cost variation for elective inpatient surgical procedures within small geographic areas. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Previous studies have documented cost variation for inpatient surgical procedures on a national basis, suggesting opportunities for savings. Cost variation within small geographic areas is more relevant to policymakers, providers, and patients, but it has not been studied. METHODS: Using Medicare payment data, we identified elderly patients undergoing 1 of 7 elective inpatient surgical procedures during 2010-2012. We calculated 30-day surgical episode costs including payments for the index hospitalization, readmission, physician services, and post-acute care. Using hierarchical regression models, we identified hospitals with significantly higher average costs than the least expensive hospitals in their metropolitan statistical areas. RESULTS: The proportion of patients undergoing surgery at the lowest-cost hospitals in their metropolitan statistical areas ranged from 10% for hip replacement to 25% for coronary artery bypass grafting. In contrast, the proportion of patients undergoing surgery at significantly higher-cost hospitals ranged from 5.0% for bariatric surgery to 64% for hip replacement. These high-cost hospitals had higher complication and readmission rates than their lowest-cost peers. Surgery at high-cost hospitals resulted in Medicare expenditures that were $4427 to $10,417 higher than those at the lowest-cost hospitals, increasing episode costs by 25% to 47% per case. CONCLUSIONS: Significant excess expenditures are incurred due to care at hospitals with substantially higher average costs than their nearby peers. This finding highlights the potential for substantial savings without the need to refer patients over long distances. Some of the procedures studied may represent appropriate targets for future Medicare bundled payment initiatives.

The Challenge of Measuring Surgeon Spending for Payment Policies.

OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to understand the reliability of profiling surgeons on average health care spending. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Under its Merit-based Incentive Payment System (MIPS), Medicare will measure surgeon spending and tie performance to payments. Although the intent of this cost-profiling is to reward low-cost surgeons, it is unknown whether surgeons can be accurately distinguished from their peers. METHODS: We used Michigan Medicare and commercial payer claims data to construct episodes of surgical care and to calculate average annual spending for individual surgeons. We then estimated the "reliability" (ie, the ability to distinguish surgeons from their peers) of these cost-profiles and the case-volume that surgeons would need in order to achieve high reliability [intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) >0.8]. Finally, we calculated the reliability of 2 alternative methods of profiling surgeons (ie, using multiple years of data and grouping surgeons by hospitals). RESULTS: We found that annual cost-profiles of individual surgeons had poor reliability; the ICC ranged from <0.001 for CABG to 0.061 for cholecystectomy. We found that few surgeons in the state of Michigan have sufficient case-volume to be reliably compared; 1% had the minimum yearly case. Finally, we found that the reliability of the cost-profiles can be improved by measuring spending at the hospital-level and/or by incorporating additional years of data. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that the Medicare program should measure surgeon spending at a group level or incorporate multiple years of data to reduce misclassification of surgeon performance in the MIPS program.