Association of longitudinal pet ownership with wheezing in 3-year-old children using the distributed lag model: the Japan Environment and Children's Study.

BACKGROUND: Time-varying exposures like pet ownership pose challenges for identifying critical windows due to multicollinearity when modeled simultaneously. The Distributed Lag Model (DLM) estimates critical windows for time-varying exposures, which are mainly continuous variables. However, applying complex functions such as high-order splines and nonlinear functions within DLMs may not be suitable for situations with limited time points or binary exposure, such as in questionnaire surveys. OBJECTIVES: (1) We examined the estimation performance of a simple DLM with fractional polynomial function for time-varying binary exposures through simulation experiments. (2) We evaluated the impact of pet ownership on childhood wheezing onset and estimate critical windows. METHODS: (1) We compared logistic regression including time-varying exposure in separate models, in one model simultaneously, and using DLM. For evaluation, we employed bias, empirical standard error (EmpSE), and mean squared error (MSE). (2) The Japan Environment and Children's Study (JECS) is a prospective birth cohort study of approximately 100,000 parent-child pairs, registered across Japan from 2011 to 2014. We applied DLM to the JECS data up to age 3. The estimated odds ratios (OR) were considered to be within critical windows when they were significant at the 5% level. RESULTS: (1) DLM and the separate model exhibited lower bias compared to the simultaneously model. Additionally, both DLM and the simultaneously model demonstrated lower EmpSEs than the separate model. In all scenarios, DLM had lower MSEs than the other methods. Specifically, where critical windows is clearly present and exposure correlation is high, DLM showed MSEs about 1/2 to 1/200 of those of other models. (2) Application of DLM to the JECS data showed that, unlike other models, a significant exposure effect was observed only between the ages of 0 and 6 months. During that periods, the highest ORs were 1.07 (95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 1.14) , observed between the ages of 2 and 5 months. CONCLUSIONS: (1) A simple DLM improves the accuracy of exposure effect and critical windows estimation. (2) 0-6 months may be the critical windows for the effect of pet ownership on the wheezing onset at 3 years.

Preoperative chemoradiotherapy using tegafur/uracil, oral leucovorin, and irinotecan (TEGAFIRI) followed by oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy as total neoadjuvant therapy for locally advanced rectal cancer: the study protocol for a phase II trial.

BACKGROUND: Total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) is a novel treatment strategy that is an alternative to preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). However, an optimal protocol for TNT has not yet been established. The present study will be an open-label, single-arm, single-center trial to develop a new protocol. METHODS: Thirty LARC patients at high risk of distant metastasis will receive CRT consisting of long-course radiation, concurrent with tegafur/uracil, oral leucovorin, irinotecan (TEGAFIRI), followed by mFOLFOX-6 or CAPOX before undergoing surgery. DISCUSSION: Since previous findings showed a high percentage of grade 3-4 adverse events with the TEGAFIRI regimen for CRT and TNT, the primary outcome of this study will be safety and feasibility. Our regimen for CRT consists of the biweekly administration of irinotecan for good patient compliance. The novel combination approach of this treatment may improve the long-term outcomes of LARC. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Japan Registry of Clinical Trials jRCTs031210660.

Impact of correlations between prioritized outcomes on the net benefit and its estimate by generalized pairwise comparisons.

Benefit-risk balance is gaining interest in clinical trials. For the comprehensive assessment of benefits and risks, generalized pairwise comparisons are increasingly used to estimate the net benefit based on multiple prioritized outcomes. Although previous research has demonstrated that the correlations between the outcomes impact the net benefit and its estimate, the direction and magnitude of this impact remain unclear. In this study, we investigated the impact of correlations between two binary or Gaussian variables on the true net benefit values via theoretical and numerical analyses. We also explored the impact of correlations between survival and categorical variables on the net benefit estimates based on four existing methods (Gehan, Péron, Gehan with correction, and Péron with correction) in the presence of right censoring via simulation and application to actual oncology clinical trial data. Our theoretical and numerical analyses revealed that the true net benefit values were impacted by the correlations in various directions depending on the outcome distributions. With binary endpoints, this direction was governed by a simple rule with a threshold of 50% for a favorable outcome. Our simulation showed that the net benefit estimates based on Gehan's or Péron's scoring rule could be substantially biased in the presence of right censoring, and that the direction and magnitude of this bias were associated with the outcome correlations. The recently proposed correction method greatly reduced this bias, even in the presence of strong outcome correlations. The impact of correlations should be carefully considered when interpreting the net benefit and its estimate.

The net benefit for time-to-event outcome in oncology clinical trials with treatment switching.

BACKGROUND: The net benefit is an effect measure for any type of endpoint, including the time-to-event outcome, and can provide intuitive and clinically meaningful interpretation. It is defined as the probability of a randomly selected subject from the experimental arm surviving by at least a clinically relevant time longer than a randomly selected subject from the control arm. In oncology clinical trials, an intercurrent event such as treatment switching is common, which potentially causes informative censoring; nevertheless, conventional methods for the net benefit are not able to deal with it. In this study, we proposed a new estimator using the inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW) method and illustrated an oncology clinical trial with treatment switching (the SHIVA study) to apply the proposed method under the estimand framework. METHODS: The net benefit can be estimated using the survival functions of each treatment group. The proposed estimator was based on the survival functions estimated by the inverse probability of the censoring weighting method that can handle covariate-dependent censoring. The simulation study was undertaken to evaluate the operating characteristics of the proposed estimator under several scenarios; we varied the shapes of the survival curves, treatment effect, covariates effect on censoring, proportion of the censoring, threshold of the net benefit, and sample size. We also applied conventional methods (the scoring rules by Péron or Gehan) and the proposed method to the SHIVA study. RESULTS: Our simulation study showed that the proposed estimator provided less biased results under the covariate-dependent censoring than existing estimators. When applying the proposed method to the SHIVA study, we were able to estimate the net benefit by incorporating the information of the covariates with different estimand strategies to address the intercurrent event of the treatment switching. However, the estimates of the proposed method and those of the aforementioned conventional methods were similar under the hypothetical strategy. CONCLUSIONS: We proposed a new estimator of the net benefit that can include covariates to account for the possibly informative censoring. We also provided an illustrative analysis of the proposed method for the oncology clinical trial with treatment switching using the estimand framework. Our proposed new estimator is suitable for handling the intercurrent events that can potentially cause covariate-dependent censoring.

The clinical impacts of postoperative complications after colon cancer surgery for the clinical course of adjuvant treatment and survival.

AIM: We investigated whether or not postoperative complications (POCs) themselves have a negative survival impact or indirectly worsen the survival due to insufficient adjuvant chemotherapy in a pooled analysis of two large phase III studies performed in Japan PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study examined the patients who enrolled in 1304, phase III study comparing the efficacy of 6 and 12 months of capecitabine as adjuvant chemotherapy for stage III colon cancer patients and in 882, a phase III study to confirm the tolerability of oxaliplatin, fluorouracil, and l-leucovorin in Japanese stage II/III colon cancer patients. In our study, POCs were defined as the following major surgical complications: anastomotic leakage, pneumonia, bowel obstruction/ileus, surgical site infection, postoperative bleeding, urinary tract infection, and fistula. Patients were classified as those with POCs (C group) and those without POCs (NC group). RESULTS: A total of 2095 patients were examined in the present study. POCs were observed in 169 patients (8.1%). The overall survival (OS) rates at 5 years after surgery were 75.3% in the C group and 86.5% in the NC group (p = 0.0017). The hazard ratio of POCs for the OS in multivariate analysis was 1.70 (95% confidence interval, 1.19 to 2.45; p = 0.0040). The time to adjuvant treatment failure (TTF) of adjuvant chemotherapy was similar between the groups, being 68.6% in the C group and 67.1% in the NC group for the 6-month continuation rate of adjuvant chemotherapy. The dose reduction rate of adjuvant chemotherapy and adjuvant treatment suspension rate were also similar between the groups (C vs. NC groups: 45.0% vs. 48.7%, p = 0.3520; and 52.7% vs. 55.0%, p = 0.5522, respectively). CONCLUSION: POCs were associated with a poor prognosis but did not affect the intensity of adjuvant chemotherapy. These results suggested that POCs themselves negatively influence the survival.

Multicenter, single-arm, phase II study of the continuous use of panitumumab in combination with FOLFIRI after FOLFOX for RAS wild-type metastatic colorectal cancer: Exploratory sequential examination of acquired mutations in circulating cell-free DNA.

This multicenter single-arm, phase II study evaluated the efficacy and safety of uninterrupted panitumumab usage combined with cytotoxic doublets for unresectable/metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Additionally, clinical value of the RAS/BRAF mutation status in circulating cell-free DNA (ccfDNA) was evaluated; this evaluation was measured independently of the protocol treatment. Eligible patients with RAS wild-type mCRC who had received the first-line panitumumab plus FOLFOX treatment were recruited and administered continuous panitumumab combined with FOLFIRI. Progression-free survival (PFS) at 6 months was the primary endpoint, with threshold and expected values of 35% and 50%, respectively. In total, 54 patients were enrolled between October 2017 and October 2019. The crude 6-month PFS rate was 37.0%, with a 4.8-month median PFS. The response rate and disease control rate were 16.7% and 50.0%, respectively. Notably, of the 54 participants, 17 showed RAS/BRAF mutations until the end of the protocol treatment and of the 22 patients with progressive disease as their best response, 10 possessed RAS/BRAF mutations in their plasma ccfDNA at baseline. The median PFS significantly differed among patients harboring tumors with BRAF and RAS mutations and those with wild-type tumors. In conclusion, our study failed to show the expected efficacy of the continuous panitumumab use in the second-line treatment. Liquid biopsy discriminated the duration of PFS according to the mutation status. The effectiveness of continuous treatment with panitumumab should be evaluated in patients with RAS/BRAF wild-type mCRC determined by liquid biopsy at the start of the second-line treatment.

DENEB: Development of new criteria for curability after local excision of pathological T1 colorectal cancer using liquid biopsy.

According to the current international guidelines, high-risk patients diagnosed with pathological T1 (pT1) colorectal cancer (CRC) who underwent complete local resection but may have risk of developing lymph node metastasis (LNM) are recommended additional intestinal resection with lymph node dissection. However, around 90% of the patients without LNM are exposed to the risk of being overtreated due to the insufficient pathological criteria for risk stratification of LNM. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is a noninvasive biomarker for molecular residual disease and relapse detection after treatments including surgical and endoscopic resection of solid tumors. The CIRCULATE-Japan project includes a large-scale patient-screening registry of the GALAXY study to track ctDNA status of patients with stage II to IV or recurrent CRC that can be completely resected. Based on the CIRCULATE-Japan platform, we launched DENEB, a new prospective study, within the GALAXY study for patients with pT1 CRC who underwent complete local resection and were scheduled for additional intestinal resection with lymph node dissection based on the standard pathologic risk stratification criteria for LNM. The aim of this study is to explore the ability of predicting LNM using ctDNA analysis compared with the standard pathological criteria. The ctDNA assay will build new evidence to establish a noninvasive personalized diagnosis in patients, which will facilitate tailored/optimal treatment strategies for CRC patients.

Phase II Study of Continued Trastuzumab Plus Irinotecan in Patients with HER2-positive Gastric Cancer Previously Treated with Trastuzumab (HGCSG 1201).

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of irinotecan plus continuous trastuzumab beyond progression in patients with gastric cancer previously treated with trastuzumab plus standard first-line chemotherapy has not been reported. METHODS: Patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive advanced gastric cancer who were previously treated with trastuzumab received trastuzumab every 3 weeks and irinotecan every 2 weeks. The primary endpoint was the overall response rate (ORR), and the secondary endpoints included progression-free survival (PFS), 6-month survival rates, safety, and subgroup analysis by HER2 status. RESULTS: Sixteen patients were enrolled in a 3-year pre-planned registration period. This study was prematurely closed due to poor patient accrual. The ORR and disease control rate were 6.7% (95% CI, 0.2-32.0) and 53.3% (95% CI, 26.6-78.7). The median PFS and overall survival (OS) were 2.4 months (95% CI, 0.0-5.2) and 9.7 months (95% CI, 8.2-11.2), respectively. The most frequently reported grades 3-4 adverse events were neutropenia (40%), anemia (27%), anorexia (33%), and fatigue (33%). CONCLUSION: With only 16 patients enrolled, the present study has very low power to detect any clinical benefit of trastuzumab plus irinotecan beyond disease progression in patients with HER2-positive advanced gastric cancer who previously received trastuzumab.Trial Identifier: UMIN000007636.

Predictors of rituximab effect on modified Rodnan skin score in systemic sclerosis: a machine-learning analysis of the DesiReS trial.

OBJECTIVES: The double-blind, parallel-group comparison, investigators initiated phase II clinical trial of IDEC-C2B8 (Rituximab) in patients with Systemic sclerosis (DesiReS) trial showed that rituximab is effective in treating skin sclerosis in SSc. However, which patient groups are likely to benefit from rituximab is unknown. METHODS: We performed post-hoc analysis of prospective data from 54 patients who received rituximab or placebo in the DesiReS trial. Twenty-seven baseline factors were used to investigate subpopulations with different magnitudes of rituximab effect on modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) change at 24 weeks. Based on a machine-learning algorithm called the causal tree, we explored the combination of predictors needed to identify subpopulations that would respond to rituximab and have good treatment outcomes. RESULTS: Three factors were identified as branches of the decision tree: peripheral blood CD19-positive cell counts', 'mRSS', and 'serum surfactant protein D (SP-D) levels'. It was only in the subpopulation of patients with CD19-positive cell counts of <57/µl that rituximab did not show a significant improvement in mRSS vs placebo. In the subpopulation of patients with CD19-positive cell counts of ≥57/µl and mRSS ≥ 17, mRSS was most improved with rituximab [difference -17.06 (95% CI: -24.22, -9.89)]. The second greatest improvement in mRSS with rituximab was in the subpopulation with CD19-positive cell counts of ≥57/µl, mRSS < 17, and serum SP-D levels of ≥151 ng/ml [difference -10.35 (95% CI: -14.77, -5.93)]. CONCLUSION: SSc patients who have high CD19-positive cell counts and high mRSS are expected to have greater improvement in mRSS with rituximab. When the patients with high CD19-positive cell counts show low mRSS, serum SP-D levels may modify the treatment effect. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, https://clinicaltrials.gov, NCT04274257 and UMIN-CTR; https://center6.umin.ac.jp, UMIN000030139.

Improvement in Surgical Outcomes Using 3-Dimensional Printed Models for Lateral Pelvic Lymph Node Dissection in Rectal Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Lateral pelvic lymph node dissection for rectal cancer is challenging due to the complexity of the pelvic wall anatomy, and incomplete lateral pelvic lymph node dissection may result in local recurrence in the lateral pelvis. Although 3-dimensional printed organ models are useful for understanding spatial anatomy, it is currently unclear whether they improve surgical outcomes. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess whether the surgical effectiveness of lateral pelvic lymph node dissection is increased by the use of individualized 3-dimensional printed pelvic models. DESIGN: This was a retrospective study using a propensity matching analysis. SETTINGS: This study was conducted at a university hospital in Japan. PATIENTS: In total, 115 patients comprising 184 pelvic sides (right, 85 sides; left, 99 sides) who underwent lateral pelvic lymph node dissection for colorectal adenocarcinoma between January 2012 and December 2019 were enrolled. INTERVENTIONS: We compared surgical outcomes using 3-dimensional printed pelvic models with control outcomes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the number of harvested lateral pelvic lymph nodes on 1 pelvic side after the propensity matching analysis. RESULTS: After matching, 35 pelvic sides each were allocated to the 3-dimensional model and control groups, and no significant differences were observed in patient characteristics between the 2 groups. The number of harvested lateral pelvic lymph nodes was significantly higher in the 3-dimensional model group (median, 9; range, 3-16) than in the control group (median, 6; range, 0-22; p = 0.047). LIMITATIONS: This was a retrospective study using propensity score matching. However, historical backgrounds were not matched, and the majority of lateral pelvic lymph node dissection procedures in the 3-dimensional model group were recently performed. This limitation may have influenced surgical outcomes. CONCLUSION: The present study demonstrated that, by referring to individualized 3-dimensional printed pelvic models, colorectal surgeons harvested a larger number of lateral pelvic lymph nodes during lateral pelvic lymph node dissection. This result suggests that 3-dimensional printed models help surgeons to complete more detailed procedures. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/B776. MEJORA DE LOS RESULTADOS QUIRRGICOS MEDIANTE EL USO DE MODELOS IMPRESOS EN D PARA LA DISECCIN LATERAL DE LOS GANGLIOS LINFTICOS PLVICOS EN EL CNCER DE RECTO: ANTECEDENTES:La disección lateral de los ganglios linfáticos de la pelvis en el cáncer de recto es un desafío debido a la complejidad de la anatomía de la pared pélvica; la disección incompleta de las mismas puede resultar en una recidiva local en dicha zona. Aunque la impresión tridimensional de modelos de órganos es útil para comprender la estructura anatómica espacial, actualmente no está claro si mejoran los resultados quirúrgicos.OBJETIVO:Nuestro objetivo fue evaluar si la efectividad quirúrgica de la disección de los ganglios linfáticos laterales de la pelvis aumenta mediante el uso individualizado de modelos pélvicos impresos en 3D.DISEÑO:Este fue un estudio retrospectivo que utilizó un análisis de coincidencia de propensión.AJUSTE:Este estudio se realizó en un hospital universitario de Japón.PACIENTES:En total, se enrolaron 115 pacientes que comprendían 184 lados pélvicos (85 de lado derecho; 99 de lado izquierdo) que fueron sometidas a disección lateral de ganglios linfáticos de la pelvis por adenocarcinoma colorrectal entre enero de 2012 y diciembre de 2019.INTERVENCIONES:Comparamos los resultados quirúrgicos mediante modelos pélvicos tridimensionales impresos con los resultados de control.PRINCIPALES MEDIDAS DE RESULTADO:El resultado primario fue el número de ganglios linfáticos laterales pélvicos extraídos en un lado pélvico después del análisis de coincidencia de propensión.RESULTADOS:Después del emparejamiento, se asignaron 35 lados pélvicos cada uno, tanto al modelo tridimensional como al grupo de control; no se observaron diferencias significativas con respecto a las características de los pacientes entre los dos grupos. El número de ganglios linfáticos pélvicos laterales extraídos fue significativamente mayor en el grupo del modelo tridimensional (mediana, 9; rango 3-16) que en el grupo de control (mediana, 6; rango, 0-22) (p = 0.047).LIMITACIONES:Este fue un estudio retrospectivo que utilizó el emparejamiento por puntuación de propensión. Sin embargo, antecedentes históricos no fueron encontrados y la mayoría de los procedimientos de disección de los ganglios linfáticos laterales pélvicos en el grupo del modelo tridimensional se realizaron recientemente. Esta limitación pudo haber influido en los resultados quirúrgicos.CONCLUSIONES:El presente estudio demostró que al referirse a modelos pélvicos individualizados impresos en 3D, los cirujanos colorrectales recolectaron un mayor número de ganglios linfáticos laterales de la pelvis durante la disección lateral. Este resultado sugiere que los modelos tridimensionales impresos ayudan a los cirujanos a completar procedimientos más detallados. Consulte Video Resumen en http://links.lww.com/DCR/B776.

Preoperative sarcopenia is a poor prognostic factor in lower rectal cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the effect of sarcopenia on the prognosis of advanced lower rectal cancer patients receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Sarcopenia has been recognized as an adverse factor for surgical outcomes in several malignancies. However, the impact of preoperative sarcopenia on rectal cancer patients receiving CRT is still unknown. METHODS: This retrospective study included cT3-T4 anyN M0 lower rectal cancer patients who underwent CRT followed by R0 resection at our institution between October 2003 and December 2016. CRT consisted of 5-fluorouracil-based oral chemotherapy and long course radiation (50.4 Gy/28 fr). The psoas muscle area at the third lumbar vertebra level was evaluated by computed tomography before and after CRT, and was adjusted by the square of the height to obtain the psoas muscle mass index (PMI). Sarcopenia was defined as the sex-specific lowest quartile of the PMI. We assessed the association between pre- and post-CRT sarcopenia and postoperative prognosis. RESULTS: Among 234 patients, 55 and 179 patients were categorized as sarcopenia and non-sarcopenia patients, respectively. Although post-CRT sarcopenia correlated with residual tumor size, it had no association with other pathological features. The median follow-up period was 72.9 months, and the 5-year DFS and OS were 67.0% and 85.8%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that post-CRT sarcopenia was independently associated with poor DFS (HR: 1.76; P = 0.036), OS (HR: 2.01; P = 0.049), and recurrence in the liver (HR: 3.01; P = 0.025). CONCLUSIONS: Sarcopenia is a poor prognostic indicator in lower advanced rectal cancer patients treated with CRT.

Evaluating the feasibility of a remote-based training program supported by information and communications technology in the older adults living at home.

BACKGROUND: Exercise has been one of the key strategies for preventing frailty. While training programs for preventing frailty have been mainly developed in person, which have now become difficult to perform due to the coronavirus disease pandemic. It would be worthwhile to explore a feasibility of methods for a remote-based training with information and communications technology (ICT) in the pre-frail/robust older adults living at home. METHODS: We assessed the feasibility of a remote-based training with ICT device in terms of 1) a measurement accuracy and 2) whether it could be used for remote-based training of different intensities. To evaluate a measurement accuracy of the ICT device, we evaluated an inter-rater reliability between a true score and scores obtaining from the ICT device in 20 participants aged 65 years and older. Intraclass correlation was calculated. To evaluate a feasibility of remote-based training interventions of different intensities, we did a parallel, randomized, active controlled trial. Participants aged 65 years or older were randomly allocated to the two 3-month intervention programs with different intensity of exercise with the ICT (i.e., an Exercise-Intensive program and a Light-load exercise program). The primary outcome was 3-month scores of the 30-s chair-stand test (CS-30), which was compared between two groups using mixed models for repeated measures to account for within-person correlations. RESULTS: The ICT device showed a high intraclass correlation of over 0.99 for all outcomes including CS-30. Between Aug and Oct 2020, 70 participants (36 and 34 in the Exercise-Intensive and Light-load exercise programs, respectively) were randomized. After 3 months of intervention, CS-30 scores and other physical function improved in both groups. Difference in the 3-month CS-30 scores between two programs was found to be 0.08 (95% confidence interval: - 2.64, 2.79; p = 0.955), which was not statistically significant. No harmful incidents, such as falls, occurred in either group. CONCLUSION: We showed a remote-based training with ICT device in the older adults living at home was feasible. Further studies are warranted to determine what kind of remote exercise intervention programs is more effective for maintaining a physical performance and, beyond that, preventing frailty. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: UMIN000041616 (05/09/2020) https://center6.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr/ctr.cgi?function=brows&action=brows&recptno=R000047504&type=summary&language=E.

Analysis of the radial and ulnar arteries using ultrasound and a vascular visualization device in children.

BACKGROUND: Radial artery is the preferred site for cannulation. Recently, the ulnar artery was chosen as an alternative in adults. AIMS: We aimed to measure the diameter and depth of the ulnar and radial arteries using ultrasound, and our secondary purpose was to evaluate their anatomical position using a near-infrared transcutaneous illumination device. METHODS: Forty-eight children (age range: 0-144 months) were assigned to the following groups: group Infant (aged <12 months), group Preschool (aged ≤12 to <72 months), and group School (aged ≥72 months). The diameter, depth, and position of the ulnar and radial arteries were compared between groups. RESULTS: There was no significant difference between the diameters of the ulnar and radial arteries. In group Infant, group Preschool, and group School, mean diameters of the ulnar artery were 1.27 ± 0.15 mm, 1.62 ± 0.27 mm, and 2.03 ± 0.28 mm, respectively, and the radial artery were 1.29 ± 0.15 mm, 1.69 ± 0.27 mm, and 2.06 ± 0.29 mm, respectively. The corresponding differences between the diameters of ulnar and radial arteries were -0.02 mm, -0.07 mm, and -0.02 mm [95% CI -0.16 mm to 0.12 mm, -0.25 mm to 0.11 mm, and -0.25 mm to 0.21 mm; p = .776, p = .411, and p = .852]. In groups Preschool and School, the ulnar artery was at the recommended depth of 2-4 mm for arterial cannulation compared with the radial artery. In the Infant, Preschool, and School age groups, the ulnar and radial arteries were at the recommended depth of 2-4 mm for arterial cannulation in 70.0%, 100.0%, 93.8%, and 80.0%, 65.0%, and 50.0% of the cases, respectively. (difference: -10.0%, 35.0%, and 43.8%, 95%; CI -43.4% to 23.4%, 14.1% to 55.9%, and 19.4% to 68.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The ulnar artery can be considered a promising alternative to the radial artery for facilitating arterial cannulation in children.

Bayesian adaptive randomization design incorporating propensity score-matched historical controls.

Incorporating historical control data to augment the control arm in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) is one way of increasing their efficiency and feasibility when adequate RCTs cannot be conducted. In recent work, a Bayesian adaptive randomization design incorporating historical control data has been proposed to reduce sample size according to the amount of information that could be borrowed, assessed at interim assessment in respect to prior-data conflict. However, the approach does not distinguish between the two sources of prior-data conflict: (1) imbalance in measured covariates, and (2) imbalance in unmeasured covariates. In this paper, we propose an extension of the Bayesian adaptive randomization design to incorporate propensity score-matched historical controls. At interim assessment, historical controls similar to the concurrent controls in terms of measured covariates are selected using propensity score matching. Then, final sample size of the control arm is adjusted according to the extent of borrowing from the matched historical controls quantified by effective historical sample size. The conditional power prior approach and commensurate prior approach are adopted for designing the prior, and addressing prior-data conflict due to unmeasured covariate imbalance. Simulation results show that the proposed method yields reduced bias in treatment effect estimates, type I error at the nominal level, and reduced sample size while maintaining statistical power. Even when residual imbalance exists due to unmeasured covariates, the proposed method borrowed more information without risking substantially inflated type I error and bias, providing meaningful implications for use of historical controls to facilitate the conduct of adequate RCTs.

Impact of Body Weight Gain on the Incidence of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Nonobese Japanese Individuals.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to investigate the effect of recent short-term weight gain on the incidence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in nonobese (body mass index < 25 kg/m) participants. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included nonobese individuals who participated in an annual health checkup between 2008 and 2018 in Tokyo, Japan. We estimated the multivariable adjusted hazard ratio for the development of NAFLD diagnosed via ultrasound after a 3-kg unit gain in weight measured at a 2-year landmark time point postbaseline. Multivariable adjustments included weight change from the age of 20 and other relevant confounding factors. Sensitivity analyses using additional landmark time points at 1, 3, 4, and 5 years postbaseline and time-dependent Cox proportional hazards regressions were performed. RESULTS: Among the 27,064 nonobese participants (142,699 person years of follow-up), 2,895 were diagnosed with NAFLD. Approximately 90% of the patients with NAFLD maintained their nonobese status before disease diagnosis. The adjusted hazard ratio for the development of NAFLD (for a 3-kg unit of weight gain) at the 2-year landmark time point postbaseline was 1.60 (95% confidence interval, 1.46-1.76) in nonobese men and 1.66 (95% confidence interval, 1.51-1.83) in nonobese women. This association was maintained in the sensitivity analyses. DISCUSSION: Recent short-term weight gain is an independent risk factor for NAFLD development in nonobese men and women. Clinicians should be mindful of the association between weight gain and NAFLD onset, even in the nonobese population.

Safety and efficacy of panitumumab in combination with trifluridine/tipiracil for pre-treated patients with unresectable, metastatic colorectal cancer with wild-type RAS: The phase 1/2 APOLLON study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess the safety and efficacy of combination treatment with panitumumab plus trifluridine/tipiracil (FTD/TPI) in patients with wild-type RAS metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) who were refractory/intolerant to standard therapies other than anti-epidermal growth factor receptor therapy. METHODS: APOLLON was an open-label, multicentre, phase 1/2 trial. In the phase 1 part, 3 + 3 de-escalation design was used to investigate the recommended phase 2 dose (RP2D); all patients in the phase 2 part received the RP2D. The primary endpoint was investigator-assessed progression-free survival (PFS) rate at 6 months. Secondary endpoints included PFS, overall survival (OS), overall response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), time to treatment failure (TTF), and safety. RESULTS: Fifty-six patients were enrolled (phase 1, n = 7; phase 2, n = 49) at 25 Japanese centres. No dose-limiting toxicities were observed in patients receiving panitumumab (6 mg/kg every 2 weeks) plus FTD/TPI (35 mg/m2 twice daily; days 1-5 and 8-12 in a 28-day cycle), which became RP2D. PFS rate at 6 months was 33.3% (90% confidence interval [CI] 22.8-45.3). Median PFS, OS, ORR, DCR, and TTF were 5.8 months (95% CI 4.5-6.5), 14.1 months (95% CI 12.2-19.3), 37.0% (95% CI 24.3-51.3), 81.5% (95% CI 68.6-90.8), and 5.8 months (95% CI 4.29-6.21), respectively. Neutrophil count decreased (47.3%) was the most common Grade 3/4 treatment-emergent adverse event. No treatment-related deaths occurred. CONCLUSION: Panitumumab plus FTD/TPI exhibited favourable anti-tumour activity with a manageable safety profile and may be a therapeutic option for pre-treated mCRC patients.

Risk factors for outlet obstruction after laparoscopic surgery and diverting ileostomy for rectal cancer.

PURPOSE: Outlet obstruction is defined as bowel obstruction at the stoma opening. The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk factors for outlet obstruction in patients with rectal cancer who underwent laparoscopic surgery and diverting ileostomy. METHODS: Among consecutive patients who underwent laparoscopic curative resection for primary rectal cancer between 2013 and 2015, 261 patients with diverting ileostomy were included in the analysis. The thickness of the abdominal wall, including the thickness of the rectus abdominis muscle, was measured using preoperative computed tomography. The clinicopathological factors were compared between the patients with and without outlet obstruction. RESULTS: Fourteen (5.4%) patients were diagnosed with outlet obstruction, but reoperation was not required. The rectus abdominis muscle was significantly thicker in male patients with outlet obstruction compared to those without outlet obstruction, but not in females. In a multivariate analysis, a rectus abdominis muscle thickness of 10 mm or more was determined to be an independent risk factor for outlet obstruction (odds ratio, 7.0482; p = 0.0061). CONCLUSIONS: The thickness of the rectus abdominis muscle may be used to predict the occurrence of outlet obstruction in male patients with rectal cancer who undergo laparoscopic surgery and diverting ileostomy.

Phase Ib/II Study of Biweekly TAS-102 in Combination with Bevacizumab for Patients with Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Refractory to Standard Therapies (BiTS Study).

LESSONS LEARNED: A biweekly TAS-102 plus BEV schedule in patients with heavily pretreated mCRC showed equivalent efficacy with less toxicity compared with the current schedule of TAS-102 plus BEV combination. Biweekly TAS-102 plus BEV combination could reduce unnecessary dose reduction of TAS-102, maintain higher doses, and possibly be effective even in cases without chemotherapy-induced neutropenia (CIN). The prespecified subgroup analysis of this study showed an obvious association between CIN within the first two cycles and prognosis of biweekly TAS-102 plus BEV. BACKGROUND: TAS-102 (trifluridine/tipiracil) plus bevacizumab (BEV) combination therapy has shown promising activity in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). However, the previously reported dose and schedule for the TAS-102 (70 mg/m2 /day on days 1-5 and 8-12, every 4 weeks) plus BEV (5 mg/kg on day 1, every 2 weeks) regimen is complicated by severe hematological toxicities and difficult administration schedules. Here, we evaluated the efficacy and safety of a more convenient biweekly TAS-102 plus BEV combination. METHODS: Patients with mCRC who were refractory or intolerant to standard chemotherapies were enrolled. Patients received biweekly TAS-102 (twice daily on days 1-5, every 2 weeks) with BEV (5mg/kg on day 1, every 2 weeks). The primary endpoint was progression-free survival rate at 16 weeks (16-w PFS rate). RESULTS: From October 2017 to January 2018, 46 patients were enrolled. The recommended phase II dose was determined to be TAS-102 (70 mg/m2 /day). Of the 44 eligible patients, the 16-w PFS rate was 40.9% (95% confidence interval, 26.3%-56.8%), and the null hypothesis was rejected (p < .0001). Median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival were 4.29 months and 10.86 months, respectively. Disease control rate was 59.1%. Common grade 3 or higher adverse events were hypertension (40.9%), neutropenia (15.9%), and leucopenia (15.9%). CONCLUSION: Biweekly TAS-102 plus BEV showed promising antitumor activity with safety.

Rate of Reoperation Decreased Significantly After Year 2002 in Patients With Crohn's Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with Crohn's disease (CD) can require multiple intestinal surgeries. We examined time trends and risk factors for reoperation in patients with CD who underwent intestinal surgery, focusing on the effects of postoperative medical treatments. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of 1871 patients with CD who underwent initial intestinal resection at 10 tertiary care institutions in Japan, with an initial surgical date after May 1982. We collected data on the background characteristics of all patients, including Montreal Classification, smoking status, and medical therapy after surgery (tumor necrosis factor antagonists [anti-TNF] agents or immunomodulators). The primary outcome was requirement for first reoperation. Rate of reoperation was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and risk factors for reoperation were identified using the Cox regression model. RESULTS: The overall cumulative 5- and 10-year reoperation rates were 23.4% and 48.0%, respectively. Multivariable analysis showed that patients who underwent the initial surgery after May 2002 had a significantly lower rate of reoperation than patients who underwent surgery before April 2002 (hazard ratio [HR], 0.72; 95% CI, 0.61-0.86). Preoperative smoking (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.18-1.68), perianal disease (HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.27-1.77), and ileocolic type of CD (HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.20-1.69) were significant risk factors for reoperation. Postoperative use of immunomodulators (HR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.44-0.81) and anti-TNF therapy (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57-0.88) significantly reduced the risk. Anti-TNF was effective in the bionaive subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of reoperation in patients with CD significantly decreased after May 2002. Postoperative use of anti-TNF agents might reduce the reoperation rate for bionaive patients with CD.

Sustained discontinuation of infliximab with a raising-dose strategy after obtaining remission in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: the RRRR study, a randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is to determine whether the 'programmed' infliximab (IFX) treatment strategy (for which the dose of IFX was adjusted based on the baseline serum tumour necrosis factor α (TNF-α)) is beneficial to induction of clinical remission after 54 weeks and sustained discontinuation of IFX for 1 year. METHODS: In this multicentre randomised trial, patients with IFX-naïve rheumatoid arthritis with inadequate response to methotrexate were randomised to two groups; patients in programmed treatment group received 3 mg/kg IFX until week 6 and after 14 weeks the dose of IFX was adjusted based on the baseline levels of serum TNF-α until week 54; patients in the standard treatment group received 3 mg/kg of IFX. Patients who achieved a simplified disease activity index (SDAI) ≤3.3 at week 54 discontinued IFX. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients who sustained discontinuation of IFX at week 106. RESULTS: A total of 337 patients were randomised. At week 54, 39.4% (67/170) in the programmed group and 32.3% (54/167) in the standard group attained remission (SDAI ≤3.3). At week 106, the 1-year sustained discontinuation rate was not significantly different between two groups; the programmed group 23.5% (40/170) and the standard group 21.6% (36/167), respectively (2.2% difference, 95% CI -6.6% to 11.0%; p=0.631). Baseline SDAI <26.0 was a statistically significant predictor of the successfully sustained discontinuation of IFX at week 106. CONCLUSION: Programmed treatment strategy did not statistically increase the sustained remission rate after 1 year discontinuation of IFX treatment.