Real-Time Use of a Dynamic Model To Measure the Impact of Public Health Interventions on Measles Outbreak Size and Duration - Chicago, Illinois, 2024.

Measles is a highly infectious, vaccine-preventable disease that can cause severe illness, hospitalization, and death. A measles outbreak associated with a migrant shelter in Chicago occurred during February-April 2024, in which a total of 57 confirmed cases were identified, including 52 among shelter residents, three among staff members, and two among community members with a known link to the shelter. CDC simulated a measles outbreak among shelter residents using a dynamic disease model, updated in real time as additional cases were identified, to produce outbreak forecasts and assess the impact of public health interventions. As of April 8, the model forecasted a median final outbreak size of 58 cases (IQR = 56-60 cases); model fit and prediction range improved as more case data became available. Counterfactual analysis of different intervention scenarios demonstrated the importance of early deployment of public health interventions in Chicago, with a 69% chance of an outbreak of 100 or more cases had there been no mass vaccination or active case-finding compared with only a 1% chance when those interventions were deployed. This analysis highlights the value of using real-time, dynamic models to aid public health response, set expectations about outbreak size and duration, and quantify the impact of interventions. The model shows that prompt mass vaccination and active case-finding likely substantially reduced the chance of a large (100 or more cases) outbreak in Chicago.

Characteristics of reported mumps cases in the United States: 2018-2023.

BACKGROUND: This paper highlights recent clinical complications of mumps reported in the United States and summarizes appropriate confirmatory testing for mumps, encouraging vigilance for mumps disease, an endemic vaccine-preventable illness. METHODS: Surveillance data from jurisdictions reporting confirmed and probable cases of mumps in the United States were descriptively analyzed to assess epidemiologic trends from January 1, 2018 - December 31, 2023. Data were reported to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System and the Epidemiology and Laboratory Capacity Project O. Cases were classified according to the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists 2011 mumps case definition. RESULTS: From 2018-2023, United States health departments reported 8,006 confirmed and probable mumps cases to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System, of which 85.4% occurred during January 1, 2018-April 4, 2020 and 14.6% during April 5, 2020-December 31, 2023. The incidence of mumps was highest among those aged 18-24 years during 2018-2020 (maximum of 4.54 cases per 100,000 persons in 2019), and highest among those aged 1-4 years during 2021-2023 (maximum 0.67 per 100,000 persons in 2023). Incidence among all age groups during 2021-2023 remained below levels during 2018-2020. Fewer than 12% of mumps cases were confirmed during 2021-2023, compared to >50% during 2018-2019. CONCLUSIONS: Although incidence has declined since the COVID-19 pandemic, these surveillance data highlight that mumps remains endemic in the United States. Therefore, maintaining high MMR vaccination coverage is essential to prevent future vaccine-preventable outbreaks and minimize severe complications from infection.

Development of COVID-19 vaccine policy - United States, 2020-2023.

COVID-19 vaccines represent a great scientific and public health achievement in the face of overwhelming pressures from a global pandemic, preventing millions of hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19 vaccines in the United States. Over 675 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered in the United States, and over 80% of the U.S. population has had at least 1 dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, over one million people died from COVID-19, and over six million were hospitalized. It has been estimated that COVID-19 vaccines prevented more than 18 million additional hospitalizations and more than 3 million additional deaths due to COVID-19 in the United States. From the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 through June 2023, ACIP had 35 COVID-19 focused meetings and 24 votes for COVID-19 vaccine recommendations. ACIP had the critical task of rapidly and thoroughly reviewing emerging and evolving data on COVID-19 epidemiology and vaccines, as well as making comprehensive population-based recommendations for vaccine policy and considerations for implementation through a transparent and evidence-based framework. Safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines, recommended through transparent policy discussions with ACIP, remain the best tool we have to prevent serious illness, hospitalization and death from COVID-19.