Gestational age at birth and type 1 diabetes in childhood and young adulthood: a nationwide register study in Finland, Norway and Sweden.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Children and adults born preterm have an increased risk of type 1 diabetes. However, there is limited information on risk patterns across the full range of gestational ages, especially after extremely preterm birth (23-27 weeks of gestation). We investigated the risk of type 1 diabetes in childhood and young adulthood across the full range of length of gestation at birth. METHODS: Data were obtained from national registers in Finland, Norway and Sweden. In each country, information on study participants and gestational age was collected from the Medical Birth Registers, information on type 1 diabetes diagnoses was collected from the National Patient Registers, and information on education, emigration and death was collected from the respective national register sources. Individual-level data were linked using unique personal identity codes. The study population included all individuals born alive between 1987 and 2016 to mothers whose country of birth was the respective Nordic country. Individuals were followed until diagnosis of type 1 diabetes, death, emigration or end of follow-up (31 December 2016 in Finland, 31 December 2017 in Norway and Sweden). Gestational age was categorised as extremely preterm (23-27 completed weeks), very preterm (28-31 weeks), moderately preterm (32-33 weeks), late preterm (34-36 weeks), early term (37-38 weeks), full term (39-41 weeks; reference) and post term (42-45 weeks). HRs and 95% CIs from country-specific covariate-adjusted Cox regression models were combined in a meta-analysis using a common-effect inverse-variance model. RESULTS: Among 5,501,276 individuals, 0.2% were born extremely preterm, 0.5% very preterm, 0.7% moderately preterm, 4.2% late preterm, 17.7% early term, 69.9% full term, and 6.7% post term. A type 1 diabetes diagnosis was recorded in 12,326 (0.8%), 6364 (0.5%) and 16,856 (0.7%) individuals at a median age of 8.2, 13.0 and 10.5 years in Finland, Norway and Sweden, respectively. Individuals born late preterm or early term had an increased risk of type 1 diabetes compared with their full-term-born peers (pooled, multiple confounder-adjusted HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.07, 1.18; and 1.15, 95% CI 1.11, 1.18, respectively). However, those born extremely preterm or very preterm had a decreased risk of type 1 diabetes (adjusted HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.45, 0.88; and 0.78, 95% CI 0.67, 0.92, respectively). These associations were similar across all three countries. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Individuals born late preterm and early term have an increased risk of type 1 diabetes while individuals born extremely preterm or very preterm have a decreased risk of type 1 diabetes compared with those born full term.

Estimating the impact of bias in causal epidemiological studies: the case of health outcomes following assisted reproduction.

Researchers interested in causal questions must deal with two sources of error: random error (random deviation from the true mean value of a distribution), and bias (systematic deviance from the true mean value due to extraneous factors). For some causal questions, randomization is not feasible, and observational studies are necessary. Bias poses a substantial threat to the validity of observational research and can have important consequences for health policy developed from the findings. The current piece describes bias and its sources, outlines proposed methods to estimate its impacts in an observational study, and demonstrates how these methods may be used to inform debate on the causal relationship between medically assisted reproduction (MAR) and health outcomes, using cancer as an example. In doing so, we aim to enlighten researchers who work with observational data, especially regarding the health effects of MAR and infertility, on the pitfalls of bias, and how to address them. We hope that, in combination with the provided example, we can convince readers that estimating the impact of bias in causal epidemiologic research is not only important but necessary to inform the development of robust health policy and clinical practice recommendations.

Risk of stroke the year following a delivery after using assisted reproductive technologies.

BACKGROUND: Studies indicate that individuals who deliver after assisted reproductive technologies (ART) may have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). A recent large study from the U.S. showed a higher risk of stroke during the first year after delivery. OBJECTIVES: To compare the risk of stroke during the first year after delivery according to the use of ART in the Nordic countries. METHODS: Registry-based cohort study using nationwide data from Denmark (1994-2014), Finland (1990-2014), Norway (1984-2015) and Sweden (1985-2015). Data on ART conception were available from ART quality registries and/or Medical Birth Registries (MBRs). National data on stroke were available from hospital and cause-of-death registries. The risk of stroke during the first year after delivery was estimated with Cox proportional hazard regression, adjusting for age, calendar year of delivery, multiple births, and country. RESULTS: A total of 2,659,272 primiparous individuals had a registered delivery in the MBRs during the study period, and 91,466 (4%) of these gave birth after ART. We observed no overall increased risk of stroke during the first year after delivery among individuals conceiving after ART (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.10, 95% CI 0.77, 1.57). Similarly, there was no convincing evidence that the short-term risk of stroke was higher within 1, 2, 3, or 6 months after delivery, with adjusted HRs ranging between 1.23 and 1.33 and confidence intervals including the null value for all time periods. A secondary analysis also including multiparous individuals (n = 3,335,478) at the start of follow-up yielded similar findings. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence of an increased short-term risk of stroke among individuals who delivered after using ART.

Non-progressive breast carcinomas detected at mammography screening: a population study.

BACKGROUND: Some breast carcinomas detected at screening, especially ductal carcinoma in situ, may have limited potential for progression to symptomatic disease. To determine non-progression is a challenge, but if all screening-detected breast tumors eventually reach a clinical stage, the cumulative incidence at a reasonably high age would be similar for women with or without screening, conditional on the women being alive. METHODS: Using high-quality population data with 24 years of follow-up from the gradually introduced BreastScreen Norway program, we studied whether all breast carcinomas detected at mammography screening 50-69 years of age would progress to clinical symptoms within 85 years of age. First, we estimated the incidence rates of breast carcinomas by age in scenarios with or without screening, based on an extended age-period-cohort incidence model. Next, we estimated the frequency of non-progressive tumors among screening-detected cases, by calculating the difference in the cumulative rate of breast carcinomas between the screening and non-screening scenarios at 85 years of age. RESULTS: Among women who attended BreastScreen Norway from the age of 50 to 69 years, we estimated that 1.1% of the participants were diagnosed with a breast carcinoma without the potential to progress to symptomatic disease by 85 years of age. This proportion of potentially non-progressive tumors corresponded to 15.7% [95% CI 3.3, 27.1] of breast carcinomas detected at screening. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that nearly one in six breast carcinomas detected at screening may be non-progressive.

Risk of ovarian cancer in women who give birth after assisted reproductive technology (ART)-a registry-based Nordic cohort study with follow-up from first pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: There is concern that assisted reproductive technology (ART) may increase ovarian cancer risk, but previous studies are inconclusive. We compared ovarian cancer risk for women who gave birth after ART vs natural conception. METHODS: Through linkage of nationwide registry data, we followed 3,303,880 initially nulliparous women in Denmark (1994-2014), Finland (1990-2014), Norway (1984-2015) and Sweden (1985-2015) from first pregnancy ≥22 weeks to ovarian cancer, emigration, death or end of follow-up (2014/2015). We estimated hazard ratios (HRs), adjusting for age, parity, maternal birth year and country, and for body mass index and smoking in subsamples. RESULTS: Mean age at first birth was 27.7 years. During a mean follow-up of 14.4 person-years, 2683 participants (0.08%) developed ovarian cancer; 135 after ART and 2548 after natural conception only (incidence rates 11.6 and 5.5 per 100,000 person-years, respectively). The risk was higher for women who ever gave birth after ART (HR 1.70, 95% confidence interval 1.42-2.03) compared to natural conception. Associations were stronger for conventional in vitro fertilisation than for intracytoplasmic sperm injection. CONCLUSIONS: Among parous women, ART-conception was associated with a higher risk of ovarian cancer than natural conception. Further studies should decipher whether this is causal or confounded by infertility or other factors.

Preterm birth and asthma and COPD in adulthood: a nationwide register study from two Nordic countries.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth affects lungs in several ways but few studies have follow-up until adulthood. We investigated the association of the entire spectrum of gestational ages with specialist care episodes for obstructive airway disease (asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)) at age 18-50 years. METHODS: We used nationwide registry data on 706 717 people born 1987-1998 in Finland (4.8% preterm) and 1 669 528 born 1967-1999 in Norway (5.0% preterm). Care episodes of asthma and COPD were obtained from specialised healthcare registers, available in Finland for 2005-2016 and in Norway for 2008-2017. We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for having a care episode with either disease outcome. RESULTS: Odds of any obstructive airway disease in adulthood for those born at <28 or 28-31 completed weeks were 2-3-fold of those born full term (39-41 completed weeks), persisting after adjustments. For individuals born at 32-33, 34-36 or 37-38 weeks, the odds were 1.1- to 1.5-fold. Associations were similar in the Finnish and the Norwegian data and among people aged 18-29 and 30-50 years. For COPD at age 30-50 years, the OR was 7.44 (95% CI 3.49-15.85) for those born at <28 weeks, 3.18 (95% CI 2.23-4.54) for those born at 28-31 weeks and 2.32 (95% CI 1.72-3.12) for those born at 32-33 weeks. Bronchopulmonary dysplasia in infancy increased the odds further for those born at <28 and 28-31 weeks. CONCLUSION: Preterm birth is a risk factor for asthma and COPD in adulthood. The high odds of COPD call for diagnostic vigilance when adults born very preterm present with respiratory symptoms.

Cancer in children born after frozen-thawed embryo transfer: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The aim was to investigate whether children born after assisted reproduction technology (ART), particularly after frozen-thawed embryo transfer (FET), are at higher risk of childhood cancer than children born after fresh embryo transfer and spontaneous conception. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed a registry-based cohort study using data from the 4 Nordic countries: Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. The study included 7,944,248 children, out of whom 171,774 children were born after use of ART (2.2%) and 7,772,474 children were born after spontaneous conception, representing all children born between the years 1994 to 2014 in Denmark, 1990 to 2014 in Finland, 1984 to 2015 in Norway, and 1985 to 2015 in Sweden. Rates for any cancer and specific cancer groups in children born after each conception method were determined by cross-linking national ART registry data with national cancer and health data registries and population registries. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the risk of any cancer, with age as the time scale. After a mean follow-up of 9.9 and 12.5 years, the incidence rate (IR) of cancer before age 18 years was 19.3/100,000 person-years for children born after ART (329 cases) and 16.7/100,000 person-years for children born after spontaneous conception (16,184 cases). Adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) was 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.96 to 1.21, p = 0.18. Adjustment was performed for sex, plurality, year of birth, country of birth, maternal age at birth, and parity. Children born after FET had a higher risk of cancer (48 cases; IR 30.1/100,000 person-years) compared to both fresh embryo transfer (IR 18.8/100,000 person-years), aHR 1.59, 95% CI 1.15 to 2.20, p = 0.005, and spontaneous conception, aHR 1.65, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.19, p = 0.001. Adjustment either for macrosomia, birth weight, or major birth defects attenuated the association marginally. Higher risks of epithelial tumors and melanoma after any assisted reproductive method and of leukemia after FET were observed. The main limitation of this study is the small number of children with cancer in the FET group. CONCLUSIONS: Children born after FET had a higher risk of childhood cancer than children born after fresh embryo transfer and spontaneous conception. The results should be interpreted cautiously based on the small number of children with cancer, but the findings raise concerns considering the increasing use of FET, in particular freeze-all strategies without clear medical indications. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Trial registration number: ISRCTN 11780826.

Long term trends of breast cancer incidence according to proliferation status.

BACKGROUND: Long-term breast cancer incidence trends according to proliferation status are poorly described. We studied time-trends in breast cancer incidence, using mitotic count and Ki-67 as markers of proliferation. METHODS: Among 83,298 Norwegian women followed for breast cancer occurrence 1961-2012, 2995 incident breast cancers were diagnosed. Ki-67 was assessed using immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays and mitoses were counted on whole sections. We compared incidence rates according to proliferation status among women born 1886-1928 and 1929-1977, estimating age-specific incidence rate ratios. We performed multiple imputations to account for unknown proliferation status. Mean values of Ki-67 and mitotic counts were calculated, according to age and birth year. We performed separate incidence analyses for HER2+ and triple negative breast cancers. RESULTS: Among women aged 40-69 years, incidence rates of tumours with low-proliferative activity were higher among those born in 1929 or later, compared to before 1929, according to Ki-67 and mitotic count. Incidence rates of tumours with high-proliferative activity were also higher in women born in 1929 or later compared to before 1929 according to Ki-67, but not according to mitotic count. Mean values of Ki-67 and mitotic count varied according to age and birth year. In subtype-specific analyses we found an increase of high-proliferative HER2+ tumours according to Ki-67 in women born in 1929 or later, compared to before 1929. CONCLUSIONS: There has been a temporal increase in both low- and high-proliferative breast cancers.

Separating parental and treatment contributions to perinatal health after fresh and frozen embryo transfer in assisted reproduction: A cohort study with within-sibship analysis.

BACKGROUND: Compared to naturally conceived children, adverse perinatal outcomes are more common among children born after assisted reproductive technology with fresh embryo transfer (fresh-ET) or frozen embryo transfer (frozen-ET). However, most previous studies could not adequately control for family confounding factors such as subfertility. We compared birth size and duration of pregnancy among infants born after fresh-ET or frozen-ET versus natural conception, using a within-sibship design to account for confounding by maternal factors. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This registry-based cohort study with nationwide data from Denmark (1994-2014), Norway (1988-2015), and Sweden (1988-2015) consisted of 4,510,790 live-born singletons, 4,414,703 from natural conception, 78,095 from fresh-ET, and 17,990 from frozen-ET. We identified 33,056 offspring sibling groups with the same mother, conceived by at least 2 different conception methods. Outcomes were mean birthweight, small and large for gestational age, mean gestational age, preterm (<37 weeks, versus ≥37), and very preterm birth (<32 weeks, versus ≥32). Singletons born after fresh-ET had lower mean birthweight (-51 g, 95% CI -58 to -45, p < 0.001) and increased odds of small for gestational age (odds ratio [OR] 1.20, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.34, p < 0.001), while those born after frozen-ET had higher mean birthweight (82 g, 95% CI 70 to 94, p < 0.001) and increased odds of large for gestational age (OR 1.84, 95% CI 1.56 to 2.17, p < 0.001), compared to naturally conceived siblings. Conventional population analyses gave similar results. Compared to naturally conceived siblings, mean gestational age was lower after fresh-ET (-1.0 days, 95% CI -1.2 to -0.8, p < 0.001), but not after frozen-ET (0.3 days, 95% CI 0.0 to 0.6, p = 0.028). There were increased odds of preterm birth after fresh-ET (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.37, p < 0.001), and in most models after frozen-ET, versus naturally conceived siblings, with somewhat stronger associations in population analyses. For very preterm birth, population analyses showed increased odds for both fresh-ET (OR 2.03, 95% CI 1.90 to 2.12, p < 0.001) and frozen-ET (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.94, p < 0.001) compared with natural conception, but results were notably attenuated within siblings (OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.41, p = 0.059, and OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.27, p = 0.6, for fresh-ET and frozen-ET, respectively). Sensitivity analyses in full siblings, in siblings born within 3-year interval, by birth order, and restricting to single embryo transfers and blastocyst transfers were consistent with the main analyses. Main limitations were high proportions of missing data on maternal body mass index and smoking. CONCLUSIONS: We found that infants conceived by fresh-ET had lower birthweight and increased odds of small for gestational age, and those conceived by frozen-ET had higher birthweight and increased odds of large for gestational age. Conception by either fresh-ET or frozen-ET was associated with increased odds of preterm birth. That these findings were observed within siblings, as well as in conventional multivariable population analyses, reduces the likelihood that they are explained by confounding or selection bias. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ISRCTN11780826.

Cardiovascular disease, obesity, and type 2 diabetes in children born after assisted reproductive technology: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Some earlier studies have found indications of significant changes in cardiometabolic risk factors in children born after assisted reproductive technology (ART). Most of these studies are based on small cohorts with high risk of selection bias. In this study, we compared the risk of cardiovascular disease, obesity, and type 2 diabetes between singleton children born after ART and singleton children born after spontaneous conception (SC). METHODS AND FINDINGS: This was a large population-based cohort study of individuals born in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark between 1984 and 2015. Data were obtained from national ART and medical birth registers and cross-linked with data from national patient registers and other population-based registers in the respective countries. In total, 122,429 children born after ART and 7,574,685 children born after SC were included. Mean (SD) maternal age was 33.9 (4.3) years for ART and 29.7 (5.2) for SC, 67.7% versus 41.8% were primiparous, and 45.2% versus 32.1% had more than 12 years of education. Preterm birth (<37 weeks 0 days) occurred in 7.9% of children born after ART and 4.8% in children born after SC, and 5.7% versus 3.3% had a low birth weight (<2,500 g). Mean (SD) follow-up time was 8.6 (6.2) years for children born after ART and 14.0 (8.6) years for children born after SC. In total, 135 (0.11%), 645 (0.65%), and 18 (0.01%) children born after ART were diagnosed with cardiovascular disease (ischemic heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, or cerebrovascular disease), obesity or type 2 diabetes, respectively. The corresponding values were 10,702 (0.14%), 30,308 (0.74%), and 2,919 (0.04%) for children born after SC. In the unadjusted analysis, children born after ART had a significantly higher risk of any cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio [HR] 1.24; 95% CI 1.04-1.48; p = 0.02), obesity (HR 1.13; 95% CI 1.05-1.23; p = 0.002), and type 2 diabetes (HR 1.71; 95% CI 1.08-2.73; p = 0.02). After adjustment, there was no significant difference between children born after ART and children born after SC for any cardiovascular disease (adjusted HR [aHR]1.02; 95% CI 0.86-1.22; p = 0.80) or type 2 diabetes (aHR 1.31; 95% CI 0.82-2.09; p = 0.25). For any cardiovascular disease, the 95% CI was reasonably narrow, excluding effects of a substantial magnitude, while the 95% CI for type 2 diabetes was wide, not excluding clinically meaningful effects. For obesity, there was a small but significant increased risk among children born after ART (aHR 1.14; 95% CI 1.06-1.23; p = 0.001). Important limitations of the study were the relatively short follow-up time, the limited number of events for some outcomes, and that the outcome obesity is often not considered as a disease and therefore not caught by registers, likely leading to an underestimation of obesity in both children born after ART and children born after SC. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed no difference in the risk of cardiovascular disease or type 2 diabetes between children born after ART and children born after SC. For obesity, there was a small but significant increased risk for children born after ART. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN11780826.

DTX3 copy number increase in breast cancer: a study of associations to molecular subtype, proliferation and prognosis.

PURPOSE: The degree of cell proliferation is important for subclassification of breast cancers into prognostic and therapeutic groups. DTX3 has been identified as a driver of proliferation in luminal breast cancer. In this study, we describe DTX3 copy number in breast cancer primary tumours and corresponding axillary lymph node metastases, and studied associations with molecular subtype, proliferation and prognosis. METHODS: Using fluorescence in situ hybridization, we assessed DTX3 and chromosome 12 centromere (CEP12) copy number in 542 primary breast cancers and 117 lymph node metastases, from a well-described cohort of Norwegian breast cancer patients. Proliferation was expressed as mitotic counts and Ki67 score. Associations between DTX3 copy number and molecular subtype and proliferation were assessed using Pearson's χ2 test. We studied the effect of copy number increase on prognosis estimating cumulative incidence of breast cancer death and hazard ratios. RESULTS: Mean DTX3 copy number ≥ 4 was found in 23 tumours (4%), and mean ≥ 5 in 9 tumours (1.7%). Copy number increase was found within all molecular subtypes except the 5 negative phenotype and the Luminal B (HER2 +) subtype. DTX3 copy number increase was not accompanied by an increase in CEP12. Point estimates showed that there were associations between DTX3 copy number increase and high proliferation and poor prognosis; however, precision depended on copy number cut-off. CONCLUSIONS: DTX3 copy number increase was present in a small proportion of breast cancer cases. There was an association between copy number increase and high tumour cell proliferation and poor prognosis.

Cerebral palsy in ART children has declined substantially over time: a Nordic study from the CoNARTaS group.

STUDY QUESTION: Are the decreasing multiple birth rates after ART associated with a simultaneous drop in the incidence of cerebral palsy (CP) in ART children over time? SUMMARY ANSWER: The relative odds of CP in ART children have declined in the Nordic countries over the past two decades concurrently with declining multiple birth rates. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: In the Nordic countries, the rate of twin pregnancies after ART has decreased from 30% in the early 1990s to 4-13% in 2014, following the implementation of elective single embryo transfer (SET). Consequently, preterm birth rates have declined substantially in ART pregnancies. However, whether the risk of CP, a known consequence of preterm birth, has decreased correspondingly is still unknown. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Retrospective register-based cohort study based on data on all singletons, twins, and higher-order multiples born in Denmark (birth year 1994-2010), Finland (1990-2010), and Sweden (1990-2014), corresponding to 111 844 ART children and 4 679 351 spontaneously conceived children. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIAL, SETTING, METHODS: Data were obtained from a large Nordic cohort of children born after ART and spontaneous conception initiated by the Committee of Nordic ART and Safety-CoNARTaS. The CoNARTaS cohort was established by cross-linking national register data using the unique personal identification number, allocated to every citizen in the Nordic countries. Data from the National Medical Birth Registers, where information on maternal, obstetric, and perinatal outcomes is recorded, were cross-linked to data from the National ART- and Patients Registers to obtain information on fertility treatments and CP diagnoses. Relative risks of CP for ART compared to spontaneous conception were estimated as odds ratios from multivariate logistic regression analyses across all birth years, as well as for the following birth year categories: 1990-1993, 1994-1998, 1999-2002, 2003-2006, 2007-2010, and 2011-2014. Analyses were made for all children and for singletons and twins, separately. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: The main outcome measure was the relative odds of CP in different time periods for ART versus spontaneously conceived children. CP was diagnosed in 661 ART children and 16 478 spontaneously conceived children born between 1990 and 2014. In 1990-1993, the relative odds of CP were substantially higher in all ART children (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.76 (95% CI 2.03-3.67)) compared with all spontaneously conceived children, while in 2011-2014, it was only moderately higher (aOR 1.39 (95% CI 1.01-1.87)). In singletons, the higher relative odds of CP in ART children diminished over time from 1990 to 1993 (aOR 2.02 (95% CI 1.22-3.14)) to 2003-2006 (aOR 1.18 (95% CI 0.91-1. 49)) and was not significantly increased for birth cohorts 2007-2010 and 2011-2014. For ART twins versus spontaneously conceived twins, the relative odds of CP was not statistically significantly increased throughout the study period. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The main limitation of the study was a shorter follow-up time and younger age at first CP diagnosis for ART children compared with spontaneously conceived children. However, analyses ensuring a minimum of bias from differences in age at CP diagnosis and follow-up time confirmed the results, hence, we do not consider this to cause substantial bias. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: A SET policy in ART treatments has the potential to reduce the increased risk of cerebral palsy in the ART population due to lower rates of multiple deliveries. At a time with high survival rates of frozen/thawed embryos, this study provides a strong argument against the continued use of multiple embryo transfer in most ART settings. Larger cohort studies including also the number of gestational sacs in early pregnancy will be preferable to show an effect of vanishing twins on the risk of CP in the ART population. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): The study was financed by grants from NordForsk (grant number 71450), Elsass Foundation (19-3-0444), the ALF-agreement (ALFGBG 70940), and The Research Fund of Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen University Hospital. There are no conflicts of interest to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN11780826.

Growth in children conceived by ART.

STUDY QUESTION: Is the growth pattern of children conceived by ART different compared to naturally conceived children. SUMMARY ANSWER: Both ART and underlying parental subfertility may contribute to differences in early childhood growth between children conceived with and without the use of ART. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Children conceived by ART weigh less and are shorter at the time of delivery. The extent to which differences in growth according to mode of conception persist during childhood, and the role of underlying parental subfertility, remains unclear. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We conducted a prospective study population-based study. We studied 81 461 children participating in the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) and 544 113 adolescents screened for military conscription. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Conception by ART as registered in the Medical Birth Registry. We compared maternally reported length/height and weight among children in MoBa from mid-pregnancy to age 7 according to mode of conception using mixed-effects linear regression. Differences in self-reported height and weight at 17 years of age at screening for military conscription were assessed with linear regression. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: At birth, children conceived by ART were shorter (boys -0.3 cm; 95% CI, -0.5 to -0.1), girls -0.4 cm; 95% CI, -0.5 to -0.3) and lighter (boys -113 grams; 95% CI, -201 to -25, girls -107 grams; 95% CI, -197 to -17). After birth, children conceived by ART grew more rapidly, achieving both greater height and weight at age 3. Children conceived by ART had a greater height up to age 7, but did not have a greater height or weight by age 17. Naturally conceived children of parents taking longer time to conceive had growth patterns similar to ART children. Children born after frozen embryo transfer had larger ultrasound measures and were longer and heavier the first 2 years than those born after fresh embryo transfer. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTIONS: Selection bias could have been introduced due to the modest participation rate in the MoBa cohort. Our reliance on self-reported measures of length/height and weight could have introduced measurement error. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: : Our findings provide reassurance that offspring conceived by ART are not different in height, weight or BMI from naturally conceived once they reach adolescence. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): Research Council of Norway; Medical Research Council; National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. The authors have no competing interest. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

The association of women's birth size with risk of molecular breast cancer subtypes: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Because birth size appears to be positively associated with breast cancer risk, we have studied whether this risk may differ according to molecular breast cancer subtypes. METHODS: A cohort of 22,931 women born 1920-1966 were followed up for breast cancer occurrence from 1961 to 2012, and 870 were diagnosed during follow-up. Archival diagnostic material from 537 patients was available to determine molecular breast cancer subtype, specified as Luminal A, Luminal B (human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-), Luminal B (HER2+), HER2 type, and Triple negative (TN) breast cancer. Information on the women's birth weight, birth length and head circumference at birth was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for each molecular subtype, applying Cox regression, and stratified by maternal height. RESULTS: Birth length (per 2 cm increments) was positively associated with Luminal A (HR = 1.2, 95% CI, 1.0-1.3), Luminal B (HER2+) (HR = 1.3, 95% CI, 1.0-1.7), and TN breast cancer (HR = 1.4, 95% CI, 1.0-1.9). No clear association was found for birth weight and head circumference. The positive associations of birth length were restricted to women whose mothers were relatively tall (above population median). CONCLUSION: We found a positive association of birth length with risk of Luminal A, Luminal B (HER2+) and TN breast cancer that appears to be restricted to women whose mothers were relatively tall. This may support the hypothesis that breast cancer risk is influenced by determinants of longitudinal growth and that this finding deserves further scrutiny.

Gestational age and the risk of autism spectrum disorder in Sweden, Finland, and Norway: A cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: The complex etiology of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is still unresolved. Preterm birth (<37 weeks of gestation) and its complications are the leading cause of death of babies in the world, and those who survive often have long-term health problems. Length of gestation, including preterm birth, has been linked to ASD risk, but robust estimates for the whole range of gestational ages (GAs) are lacking. The primary objective of this study was to provide a detailed and robust description of ASD risk across the entire range of GAs while adjusting for sex and size for GA. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Our study had a multinational cohort design, using population-based data from medical registries in three Nordic countries: Sweden, Finland, and Norway. GA was estimated in whole weeks based on ultrasound. Children were prospectively followed from birth for clinical diagnosis of ASD. Relative risk (RR) of ASD was estimated using log-binomial regression. Analyses were also stratified by sex and by size for GA. The study included 3,526,174 singletons born 1995 to 2015, including 50,816 (1.44%) individuals with ASD. In the whole cohort, 165,845 (4.7%) were born preterm. RR of ASD increased by GA, from 40 to 24 weeks and from 40 to 44 weeks of gestation. The RR of ASD in children born in weeks 22-31, 32-36, and 43-44 compared to weeks 37-42 were estimated at 2.31 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.15-2.48; 1.67% vs 0.83%; p-value < 0.001), 1.35 (95% CI 1.30-1.40; 1.08% vs 0.83%; p-value < 0.001), and 1.37 (95% CI 1.21-1.54; 1.74% vs 0.83%; p-value < 0.001), respectively. The main limitation of this study is the lack of data on potential causes of pre- or postterm birth. Also, the possibility of residual confounding should be considered. CONCLUSION: In the current study, we observed that the RR of ASD increased weekly as the date of delivery diverged from 40 weeks, both pre- and postterm, independently of sex and size for GA. Given the unknown etiology of ASD and the lifelong consequences of the disorder, identifying groups of increased risk associated with a potentially modifiable risk factor is important.

MRPS23 amplification and gene expression in breast cancer; association with proliferation and the non-basal subtypes.

PURPOSE: MRPS23 is recognized as a driver of proliferation in luminal breast cancer. The aims of the present study were to describe MRPS23 copy number change in breast cancer, and to assess associations between MRPS23 copy number change and molecular subtype, proliferation and prognosis, and between MRPS23 gene expression and molecular subtype and prognosis. METHODS: Using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), we examined MRPS23 and centromere 17 copy number in 590 formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded primary tumours and 144 corresponding lymph node metastases from a cohort of Norwegian breast cancer patients. Furthermore, we analysed MRPS23 gene expression data in 1971 primary breast cancer tumours from the METABRIC dataset. We used Pearson's χ2 test to assess associations between MRPS23 copy number and molecular subtype and proliferation, and between MRPS23 expression and molecular subtype. We studied prognosis by estimating hazard ratios and cumulative incidence of death from breast cancer according to MRPS23 copy number and MRPS23 expression status. RESULTS: We found MRPS23 amplification (mean MRPS23 copy number ≥ 6 and/or MRPS23/chromosome 17 ratio ≥ 2) in 8% of primary tumours. Copy number increase associated with non-basal subtypes and higher tumour cell proliferation (Ki67). Higher MRPS23 expression associated with the Luminal B subtype. We found no significant association between MRPS23 amplification or MRSP23 gene expression, and prognosis. CONCLUSION: Amplification of MRPS23 is associated with higher proliferation and non-basal subtypes in breast cancer. High MRPS23 expression is associated with the Luminal B subtype.

Time trends in placenta-mediated pregnancy complications after assisted reproductive technology in the Nordic countries.

BACKGROUND: The use of assisted reproductive technology is increasing worldwide and conception after assisted reproduction currently comprises 3%-6% of birth cohorts in the Nordic countries. The risk of placenta-mediated pregnancy complications is greater after assisted reproductive technology compared with spontaneously conceived pregnancies. Whether the excess risk of placenta-mediated pregnancy complications in pregnancies following assisted reproduction has changed over time, is unknown. OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether time trends in risk of pregnancy complications (hypertensive disorders in pregnancy, placental abruption and placenta previa) differ for pregnancies after assisted reproductive technology compared with spontaneously conceived pregnancies during 3 decades of assisted reproduction treatment in the Nordic countries. STUDY DESIGN: In a population-based cohort study, with data from national health registries in Denmark (1994-2014), Finland (1990-2014), Norway (1988-2015) and Sweden (1988-2015), we included 6,830,578 pregnancies resulting in delivery. Among these, 146,998 (2.2%) were pregnancies after assisted reproduction (125,708 singleton pregnancies, 20,668 twin pregnancies and 622 of higher order plurality) and 6,683,132 (97.8%) pregnancies were conceived spontaneously (6,595,185 singleton pregnancies, 87,106 twin pregnancies and 1,289 of higher order plurality). We used logistic regression with post-estimation to estimate absolute risks and risk differences for each complication. We repeated analyses for singleton and twin pregnancies, separately. In subsamples with available information, we also adjusted for maternal body mass index, smoking during pregnancy, previous cesarean delivery, culture duration, and cryopreservation. RESULTS: The risk of each placental complication was consistently greater in pregnancies following assisted reproductive technology compared with spontaneously conceived pregnancies across the study period, except for hypertensive disorders in twin pregnancies, where risks were similar. Risk of hypertensive disorders increased over time in twin pregnancies for both conception methods, but more strongly for pregnancies following assisted reproductive technology (risk difference, 1.73 percentage points per 5 years; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-2.11) than for spontaneously conceived twins (risk difference, 0.75 percentage points; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.89). No clear time trends were found for hypertensive disorders in singleton pregnancies. Risk of placental abruption decreased over time in all groups. Risk differences were -0.16 percentage points (95% confidence interval, -0.19 to -0.12) and -0.06 percentage points (95% confidence interval, -0.06 to -0.05) for pregnancies after assisted reproduction and spontaneously conceived pregnancies, respectively, for singletons and multiple pregnancies combined. Over time, the risk of placenta previa increased in pregnancies after assisted reproduction among both singletons (risk difference, 0.21 percentage points; 95% confidence interval, 0.14-0.27) and twins (risk difference, 0.30 percentage points; 95% confidence interval, 0.16-0.43), but remained stable in spontaneously conceived pregnancies. When adjusting for culture duration, the temporal increase in placenta previa became weaker in all groups of assisted reproductive technology pregnancies, whereas adjustment for cryopreservation moderately attenuated trends in assisted reproductive technology twin pregnancies. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of placenta-mediated pregnancy complications following assisted reproductive technology remains higher compared to spontaneously conceived pregnancies, despite declining rates of multiple pregnancies. For hypertensive disorders in pregnancy and placental abruption, pregnancies after assisted reproduction follow the same time trends as the background population, whereas for placenta previa, risk has increased over time in pregnancies after assisted reproductive technology.

Perinatal and maternal outcome after vitrification of blastocysts: a Nordic study in singletons from the CoNARTaS group.

STUDY QUESTION: Is transfer of vitrified blastocysts associated with higher perinatal and maternal risks compared with slow-frozen cleavage stage embryos and fresh blastocysts? SUMMARY ANSWER: Transfer of vitrified blastocysts is associated with a higher risk of preterm birth (PTB) when compared with slow-frozen cleavage stage embryos and with a higher risk of a large baby, hypertensive disorders in pregnancy (HDPs) and postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) but a lower risk of placenta previa when compared with fresh blastocysts. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Transfer of frozen-thawed embryos (FETs) plays a central role in modern fertility treatment, limiting the risk of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome and multiple pregnancies. Following FET, several studies report a lower risk of PTB, low birth weight (LBW) and small for gestational age (SGA) yet a higher risk of fetal macrosomia and large for gestational age (LGA) compared with fresh embryos. In recent years, the introduction of new freezing techniques has increased treatment success. The slow-freeze technique combined with cleavage stage transfer has been replaced by vitrification and blastocyst transfer. Only few studies have compared perinatal and maternal outcomes after vitrification and slow-freeze and mainly in cleavage stage embryos, with most studies indicating similar outcomes in the two groups. Studies on perinatal and maternal outcomes following vitrified blastocysts are limited. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This registry-based cohort study includes singletons born after frozen-thawed and fresh transfers following the introduction of vitrification in Sweden and Denmark, in 2002 and 2009, respectively. The study includes 3650 children born after transfer of vitrified blastocysts, 8123 children born after transfer of slow-frozen cleavage stage embryos and 4469 children born after transfer of fresh blastocysts during 2002-2015. Perinatal and maternal outcomes in singletons born after vitrified blastocyst transfer were compared with singletons born after slow-frozen cleavage stage transfer and singletons born after fresh blastocyst transfer. Main outcomes included PTB, LBW, macrosomia, HDP and placenta previa. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Data were obtained from the CoNARTaS (Committee of Nordic ART and Safety) group. Based on national registries in Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Norway, the CoNARTaS cohort includes all children born after ART treatment in public and private clinics 1984-2015. Outcomes were assessed with logistic multivariable regression analysis, adjusting for the country and year of birth, maternal age, body mass index, parity, smoking, parental educational level, fertilisation method (IVF/ICSI), single embryo transfer, number of gestational sacs and the child's sex. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: A higher risk of PTB (<37 weeks) was noted in the vitrified blastocyst group compared with the slow-frozen cleavage stage group (adjusted odds ratio, aOR [95% CI], 1.33 [1.09-1.62]). No significant differences were observed for LBW (<2500 g), SGA, macrosomia (≥4500 g) and LGA when comparing the vitrified blastocyst with the slow-frozen cleavage stage group. For maternal outcomes, no significant difference was seen in the risk of HDP, placenta previa, placental abruption and PPH in the vitrified blastocyst versus the slow frozen cleavage stage group, although the precision was limited.When comparing vitrified and fresh blastocysts, we found higher risks of macrosomia (≥4500 g) aOR 1.77 [1.35-2.31] and LGA aOR 1.48 [1.18-1.84]. Further, the risks of HDP aOR 1.47 [1.19-1.81] and PPH aOR 1.68 [1.39-2.03] were higher in singletons born after vitrified compared with fresh blastocyst transfer while the risks of SGA aOR 0.58 [0.44-0.78] and placenta previa aOR 0.35 [0.25-0.48] were lower. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Since vitrification was introduced simultaneously with blastocyst transfer in Sweden and Denmark, it was not possible to explore the effect of vitrification per se in this study. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The results from the change of strategy to vitrification of blastocysts are reassuring, indicating that the freezing technique per se has no major influence on the perinatal and maternal outcomes. The higher risk of PTB may be related to the extended embryo culture rather than vitrification. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): The study is part of the ReproUnion Collaborative study, co-financed by the European Union, Interreg V ÖKS. The study was also financed by grants from the Swedish state under the agreement between the Swedish government and the county councils, the ALF agreement (LUA/ALF 70940), Hjalmar Svensson Research Foundation and NordForsk (project 71 450). There are no conflicts of interest to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN11780826.

Menopausal hormone therapy and breast cancer risk: effect modification by body mass through life.

It is not known whether increased breast cancer risk caused by menopausal hormone therapy (HT) depends on body mass patterns through life. In a prospective study of 483,241 Norwegian women aged 50-69 years at baseline, 7656 women developed breast cancer during follow-up (2006-2013). We combined baseline information on recalled body mass in childhood/adolescence and current (baseline) body mass index (BMI) to construct mutually exclusive life-course body mass patterns. We assessed associations of current HT use with breast cancer risk according to baseline BMI and life-course patterns of body mass, and estimated relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI). Within all levels of baseline BMI, HT use was associated with increased risk. Considering life-course body mass patterns as a single exposure, we used women who "remained at normal weight" through life as the reference, and found that being "overweight as young" was associated with lower risk (hazard ratio (HR) 0.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-0.94), whereas women who "gained weight" had higher risk (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.12-1.28). Compared to never users of HT who were "overweight as young", HT users who either "remained at normal weight" or "gained weight" in adulthood were at higher risk than expected when adding the separate risks (RERI 0.52, 95% CI 0.09-0.95, and RERI 0.37, 95% CI - 0.07-0.80), suggesting effect modification. Thus, we found that women who remain at normal weight or gain weight in adulthood may be more susceptible to the risk increasing effect of HT compared to women who were overweight as young.