Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic Lockdown on Emergency Medical Service Utilisation, and Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Volume-An Australian Perspective.

BACKGROUND: Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) admissions and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) volume declined during periods of COVID-19 lockdown internationally in 2020. The effect of lockdown on emergency medical service (EMS) utilisation, and PCI volume during the initial phase of the pandemic in Australia has not been well described. METHOD: We analysed data from the Victorian Cardiac Outcomes Registry (VCOR), a state-wide PCI registry, linked with the Ambulance Victoria EMS registry. PCI volume, 30-day major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE; composite of mortality, myocardial infarction, stent thrombosis, unplanned revascularisation, and stroke), and EMS utilisation were compared over four time periods: lockdown (26 Mar 2020-12 May 2020); pre-lockdown (26 Feb 2020-25 Mar 2020); post-lockdown (13 May 2020-10 Jul 2020); and the year prior (26 Mar 2019-12 May 2019). Interrupted time series analysis was performed to assess PCI trends within and between consecutive periods. RESULTS: The EMS utilisation for ACS during lockdown was higher compared with other periods: lockdown 39.4% vs pre-lockdown 29.7%; vs post-lockdown 33.6%; vs year prior 27.1%; all p<0.01. Median daily PCI cases were similar: 31 (IQR 10, 38) during lockdown; 39 (15, 49) pre-lockdown; 39.5 (11, 44) post-lockdown; and, 42 (10, 49) the year prior; all p>0.05. Median door-to-procedure time for ACS indication during lockdown was shorter at 3 hours (1.2, 20.6) vs pre-lockdown 3.9 (1.7, 21); vs post-lockdown 3.5 (1.5, 21.26); and, the year prior 3.5 (1.5, 23.7); all p<0.05. Lockdown period was associated with lower odds for 30-day MACCE compared to pre-lockdown (odds ratio [OR] 0.55 [0.33-0.93]; p=0.026); post-lockdown (OR 0.66; [0.40-1.06]; p=0.087); and the year prior (OR 0.55 [0.33-0.93]; p=0.026). CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to international trends, EMS utilisation for ACS increased during lockdown but PCI volumes remained similar throughout the initial stages of the pandemic in Victoria, with no observed adverse effect on 30-day MACCE during lockdown. These data suggest that the public health response in Victoria was not associated with poorer quality cardiovascular care in patients receiving PCI.

ECG predictors of AF: A systematic review (predicting AF in ischaemic stroke-PrAFIS).

In 25% of patients presenting with embolic stroke, a cause is not determined. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a commonly identified mechanism of stroke in this population, particularly in older patients. Conventional investigations are used to detect AF, but can we predict AF in this population and generally? We performed a systematic review to identify potential predictors of AF on 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG). METHOD: We conducted a search of EMBASE and Medline databases for prospective and retrospective cohorts, meta-analyses or case-control studies of ECG abnormalities in sinus rhythm predicting subsequent atrial fibrillation. We assessed quality of studies based on the Newcastle-Ottawa scale and data were extracted according to PRISMA guidelines. RESULTS: We identified 44 studies based on our criteria. ECG patterns that predicted the risk of developing AF included interatrial block, P-wave terminal force lead V1, P-wave dispersion, abnormal P-wave-axis, abnormal P-wave amplitude, prolonged PR interval, left ventricular hypertrophy, QT prolongation, ST-T segment abnormalities and atrial premature beats. Furthermore, we identified that factors such as increased age, high CHADS-VASC, chronic renal disease further increase the positive-predictive value of some of these parameters. Several of these have been successfully incorporated into clinical scoring systems to predict AF. CONCLUSION: There are several ECG abnormalities that can predict AF both independently, and with improved predictive value when combined with clinical risk factors, and if incorporated into clinical risk scores. Improved and validated predictive models could streamline selection of patients for cardiac monitoring and initiation of oral anticoagulants.

Percutaneous coronary intervention outcomes based on American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association coronary lesion classification over 14 years - Melbourne interventional group (MIG) registry.

BACKGROUND: The American College of Cardiology / American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) introduced a coronary lesion classification in 1988 to stratify coronary lesions for probability of procedural success and complications after coronary angioplasty. Our aim is to assess the validity of the ACC/AHA lesion classification in predicting outcomes of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in a contemporary cohort of patients. METHODS: Consecutive PCI procedures performed between 2005 and 2018, were divided into three periods. At each period, the ACC/AHA lesion classification (A, B1, B2, C) was analysed with respect to procedural characteristics, in-hospital and 30-day outcomes, as well as long-term mortality by linkage to the National Death Index (NDI). RESULTS: In total, 21,437 lesions were included with 7399 lesions (2005-2009), 6917 lesions (2010-2014) and 7121 lesions (2015-2018). There was a progressive increase in the number of complex lesions treated over time with ACC/AHA type C (15 %, 21 % and 26 %, p < 0.01). The rate of PCI procedural success decreased with increase in the complexity of lesions treated across all three periods (p < 0.01). Further, in-hospital and 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) increased across all three time periods (all p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our study validates the ACC/AHA lesion classification as a meaningful tool for prediction of PCI outcomes. Despite advances in PCI techniques and technology, complex lesion PCI defined by this classification continues to be associated with adverse outcomes.

Associations Between Metabolic Syndrome and Long-Term Mortality in Patients who underwent Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: An Australian Cohort Analysis.

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) provides significant risk for coronary disease, however long-term prognosis after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has been understudied. We assessed the prevalence and outcomes of patients with MetS from an Australian PCI cohort. We retrospectively examined data from the Melbourne Interventional Group multicenter PCI registry using a modified definition for MetS including ≥3 of the following: hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, and body mass index ≥30 kg/m2. Thirty-day outcomes and long-term mortality were compared with patients without MetS. Cox regression methods were used to assess the multivariable effect of MetS on long-term mortality. Of 41,146 patients, 12,228 (34%) had MetS. Patients with MetS experienced greater 30-day myocardial infarction (2.2% vs 1.8%, p = 0.013), whereas patients without MetS had a trend for greater 30-day mortality (3.0% vs 3.4%, p = 0.051) and greater in-hospital major bleeding (1.7% vs 2.4%, p <0.001). After a median follow-up of 5.62 years (Q1 2.03, Q3 8.89), patients with MetS experienced greater mortality (24% vs 19%, p <0.001). After adjustment, MetS was not an independent predictor of long-term mortality (hazard ratio 0.95 confidence interval 0.86 to 1.05, p = 0.35). In sensitivity analyses, MetS-Diabetic patients had the highest, and MetS-NonDiabetic obese patients had the lowest long-term mortality. One in 3 patients who underwent all-comer PCI presented with MetS and experienced greater long-term mortality compared with others. However, this association was lost after adjustment for baseline confounders, highlighting that MetS is a marker of risk after PCI. Our findings support the obesity paradox and confirm robust associations between diabetes mellitus and long-term mortality.

Prevalence and outcomes of patients with SMuRF-less acute coronary syndrome undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing awareness that patients without standard modifiable risk factors (SMuRFs; diabetes, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension and smoking) may represent a unique subset of patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We aimed to investigate the prevalence and outcomes of patients with SMuRF-less ACS undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) compared with those with SMuRFs. METHODS: We analysed data from the Melbourne Interventional Group PCI Registry. Patients with coronary artery disease were excluded. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included in-hospital and 30-day events. Long-term mortality was investigated using Cox-proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: From 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2020, 2727/18 988 (14.4%) patients were SMuRF less, with the proportion increasing over time. Mean age was similar for patients with and without SMuRFs (63 years), and fewer females were SMuRF-less (19.8% vs 25.4%, p<0.001). SMuRF-less patients were more likely to present with cardiac arrest (6.6% vs 3.9%, p<0.001) and ST-elevation myocardial infarction (59.1% vs 50.8%, p<0.001) and were more likely to experience postprocedural cardiogenic shock (4.5% vs 3.6%, p=0.019) and arrhythmia (11.2% vs 9.9%, p=0.029). At 30 days, mortality, myocardial infarction, revascularisation and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events did not differ between the groups. During median follow-up of 7 years, SMuRF-less patients had an adjusted 13% decreased rate of mortality (HR 0.87 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.97)). CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of SMuRF-less patients increased over time. Presentation was more often a devastating cardiac event compared with those with SMuRFs. No difference in 30-day outcomes was observed and SMuRF-less patients had lower hazard for long-term mortality.

The impact of stress testing to guide PCI in patients with chronic coronary disease.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines and international appropriate use criteria increasingly endorse non-invasive stress testing to evaluate patients with suspected chronic coronary disease (CCD). We sought to review the real-world utilisation of non-invasive stress testing and investigate whether their use prior to PCI associates with outcomes in patients with CCD. METHODS: Consecutive patients from a multicentre registry who underwent PCI for CCD between 2006 and 2018 were included. Clinical characteristics and outcomes were stratified according to whether stress testing was performed prior to PCI (stress vs no-stress groups). The primary outcome was 3-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among the 8251 patients included, 4970 (60.2 %) underwent pre-PCI stress testing and this proportion increased over time (p-for-trend<0.001). The stress group had a lower prevalence of prior revascularization, myocardial infarction, or heart failure, and a lower incidence of triple vessel disease, in stent re-stenosis, and ACC/AHA class B2/C lesions (all p < 0.001). When comparing post-procedural outcomes, the stress group had lower rates of arrhythmia (1.5 % vs 2.6 %, p = 0.001), new heart failure (0.2 % vs 0.8 %, p = 0.001), renal impairment, and a shorter length of stay (1.6 vs 2.1 days, p < 0.001). Mortality at 3-years was lower in those undergoing PCI following stress testing (5.8 % vs 8.8 %, p < 0.001). After adjusting for key clinical variables, stress guided revascularization was associated with a significantly lower risk of 3-year mortality (adjusted Hazard Ratio 0.77, 95 % CI 0.64-0.92). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with CCD, PCI guided by non-invasive stress testing is increasingly utilized and associated with improved survival. Further studies are necessary to investigate whether this results from differences in patient characteristics, optimized patient selection, or refined choice of target vessel.

Associations between Dual Anti-Platelet Therapy score and long-term mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention: Analysis of >27,000 patients.

BACKGROUND: The dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) score was developed to identify patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) who are likely to derive benefit (score ≥2) or harm (score <2) from extended DAPT beyond 1-year post-PCI with respect to ischaemic and bleeding outcomes. We examined the associations between DAPT score at index PCI and long-term mortality from an all-comers PCI registry in patients receiving DAPT as per the standard of care. METHODS: We retrospectively examined prospectively collected data from the Melbourne Interventional Group PCI database (2005- 2018) and grouped patients as having DAPT score ≥2 or <2. Long-term mortality was assessed from the Australian National Death Index linkage. The primary endpoint was long-term mortality using survival analysis. Secondary endpoints included in-hospital events and 30-day major adverse cardiac events (MACE), a composite of death, myocardial infarction, or target vessel revascularization. RESULTS: Of 27,740 study patients, 9,402 (33.9%) had DAPT score ≥2. Patients with DAPT score ≥2 were younger and included more females with higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. Patients with DAPT score ≥2 had higher in-hospital mortality (3.0% vs. 1.0%) and major bleeding (2.3% vs. 1.6%), 30-day MACE (7.1% vs. 3.1%), and long-term mortality at a median follow-up of 5.17 years (21.9% vs. 16.5%), p<0.001 for all. CONCLUSION: A third of all-comer patients undergoing PCI had a DAPT score ≥2 with greater short-term ischaemic and bleeding risk, and higher long-term mortality. Risk assessment using the DAPT score may guide the duration and intensity of DAPT beyond the early post-PCI period.

No-Reflow Prediction in Acute Coronary Syndrome During Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: The NORPACS Risk Score.

BACKGROUND: Suboptimal coronary reperfusion (no reflow) is common in acute coronary syndrome percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and is associated with poor outcomes. We aimed to develop and externally validate a clinical risk score for angiographic no reflow for use following angiography and before PCI. METHODS: We developed and externally validated a logistic regression model for prediction of no reflow among adult patients undergoing PCI for acute coronary syndrome using data from the Melbourne Interventional Group PCI registry (2005-2020; development cohort) and the British Cardiovascular Interventional Society PCI registry (2006-2020; external validation cohort). RESULTS: A total of 30 561 patients (mean age, 64.1 years; 24% women) were included in the Melbourne Interventional Group development cohort and 440 256 patients (mean age, 64.9 years; 27% women) in the British Cardiovascular Interventional Society external validation cohort. The primary outcome (no reflow) occurred in 4.1% (1249 patients) and 9.4% (41 222 patients) of the development and validation cohorts, respectively. From 33 candidate predictor variables, 6 final variables were selected by an adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model for inclusion (cardiogenic shock, ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction with symptom onset >195 minutes pre-PCI, estimated stent length ≥20 mm, vessel diameter <2.5 mm, pre-PCI Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction flow <3, and lesion location). Model discrimination was very good (development C statistic, 0.808; validation C statistic, 0.741) with excellent calibration. Patients with a score of ≥8 points had a 22% and 27% risk of no reflow in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The no-reflow prediction in acute coronary syndrome risk score is a simple count-based scoring system based on 6 parameters available before PCI to predict the risk of no reflow. This score could be useful in guiding preventative treatment and future trials.