Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on compulsory notification of meningitis during the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil: an ecological study using P-score.

BACKGROUND: Meningitis is listed as one of the diseases requiring compulsory notification in Brazil. It can affect all age groups and also has no seasonality. Cases can be recorded in all months of the year and in all states of Brazil. Despite its importance, the obligation of immediate notification may have been compromised by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the immediate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on compulsory notifications of meningitis in Brazil and its states during the first wave of the pandemic. DESIGN AND SETTING: This was an ecological study involving all confirmed cases of meningitis in Brazil, in its regions and in its states. METHODS: Data for the months from 2015 to 2020 were obtained from the database of the Notifiable Diseases Information System (Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação, SINAN), in the Department of Informatics of the National Health System (Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde, DATASUS). The P-score was used to obtain the percentage change in the numbers of cases reported in 2020. RESULTS: A 45.7% reduction in notifications of meningitis in Brazil was observed. Regarding the regions and the states, with the exception of Roraima, all of them showed a negative P-score, with decreasing curves each month. CONCLUSION: The pandemic caused a negative impact on meningitis notifications in Brazil.

In-Hospital Mortality from Cardiovascular Diseases in Brazil during the First Year of The COVID-19 Pandemic. / Excesso de Mortalidade Hospitalar por Doenças Cardiovasculares no Brasil Durante o Primeiro Ano da Pandemia de COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact on mortality from several diseases worldwide, especially cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Brazil is a continent-sized country with significant differences in the health care structure between its federative units. OBJECTIVE: Analyze in-hospital mortality from CVDs in the Brazilian public health system during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020). METHODS: This is an ecological study analyzing the absolute number of in-hospital deaths and the rate of in-hospital mortality in Brazil, its macro-regions, and federative units. Data were obtained from the Hospital Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. To analyze excess mortality, the P-score was used. It compares the events observed with those expected for a given place and period. The P-score was corrected by the joinpoint regression model, with a 95% confidence interval and 5% significance level. RESULTS: There were 93,104 in-hospital deaths due to CVD in Brazil in 2020, representing 1,495 fewer deaths (P score: -1.58) than expected. The central-west region had a positive P-score, with a 15.1% increase in the number of deaths. Ten federative units showed a greater number of deaths in 2020. There was also a 13.3% excess in-hospital mortality at the country level, and an excess in-hospital mortality in all macro-regions. CONCLUSIONS: There was a decrease in the absolute number of in-hospital deaths, as well as an increase in in-hospital mortality from CVD in Brazil, in 2020, after the COVID-19 pandemic onset.

FUNDAMENTO: A pandemia da COVID-19 tem causado um impacto sobre a mortalidade por várias doenças em todo o mundo, especialmente por doenças cardiovasculares (DCVs). O Brasil é um país de dimensões continentais com diferenças significativas na estrutura de saúde entre seus estados. OBJETIVO: Analisar a mortalidade hospitalar por DCV no sistema público de saúde durante o primeiro ano da pandemia por COVID-19 (2020) no Brasil. MÉTODOS: Este é um estudo ecológico analisando o número absoluto de mortes hospitalares e a taxa de mortalidade hospitalar no Brasil, suas macrorregiões, e unidades federativas. Os dados foram obtidos do Sistema de Informações Hospitalares (SIH) do Ministério da Saúde. O P-escore foi usado para analisar o excesso de mortalidade. O escore compara os eventos observados com os eventos esperados para um dado local e período. O escore-P foi corrigido por um modelo de regressão joinpoint, com um intervalo de confiança de 95% e nível de significância de 5%. RESULTADOS: Houve 93.104 óbitos hospitalares por DCV no Brasil em 2020, o que representa 1495 menos óbitos (escore-P: -1,58) que o esperado. A região centro-oeste apresentou um escore-P positivo, com um aumento de 15,1% no número de mortes. Dez estados apresentaram um maior número de óbitos em 2020. Ainda, observou-se um excesso de 13,3% de mortalidade hospitalar no país como um todo, e um excesso de mortalidade hospitalar em todas as macrorregiões. CONCLUSÕES: Houve uma diminuição no número absoluto de óbitos hospitalares, bem como um aumento na taxa de mortalidade por DCV no Brasil em 2020, após o início da pandemia por COVID-19.

Temporal Trend of Mortality Due to Ischemic Heart Diseases in Northeastern Brazil (1996-2016): An Analysis According to Gender and Age Group. / Tendência Temporal da Mortalidade por Doenças Isquêmicas do Coração no Nordeste Brasileiro (1996­2016): Uma Análise Segundo Gênero e Faixa Etária.

BACKGROUND: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is the leading cause of death among cardiovascular diseases (CVD). OBJECTIVE: To describe the sociodemographic profile and analyze the trend in the mortality rate due to IHD, according to sex and by age group, in the states of the Northeast region of Brazil, from 1996 to 2016. METHODS: Ecological study involving IHD mortality in the northeastern states. Variables analyzed: sex, age, education, marital status, ICD-10 category and state of residence. Crude and standardized rates were calculated. Death data were collected from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and population data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). In temporal analyzes the regression model by inflection points was used, with the calculation of annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change of the period (AAPC). A 95% confidence interval and a significance level of 5% were considered. RESULTS: 405916 deaths due to IHD were registered in the northeast region during the study period. The death profile is characterized by men (n=229006; 56,42%), elderly (n=301379; 74,25%), race/color brown (n=197936; 48,76%), elementary or <4 years at school (n=232599; 57,30%) and married (n=179599; 44,25%). There was an unusual highlight to the increase in the annual growth rate in the age group of adolescents (AAPC: 5,2%, p <0.01). The standardized regional mortality rate grew from 30,7 per 100,000 inhabitants in 1996 to 53.8 per 100,000 in 2016 (AAPC 2.8%; p<0.01). All nine states presented a statistically significant growth trend, with emphasis on Maranhão (AAPC 7,6%; p<0.01) and Piauí (AAPC 6,0%; p<0.01). CONCLUSION: The prevalent observed profile was male, elderly, race/color brown, low education level and married. Mortality due to IHD presented an upward trend in all states, although with an uneven pattern among the federated units.

FUNDAMENTOS: As doenças isquêmicas do coração (DIC) são a primeira causa de mortes dentre as doenças cardiovasculares (DCV). OBJETIVO: Descrever o perfil sociodemográfico e analisar tendência da taxa de mortalidade por DIC, segundo sexo e por faixa etária, nos estados da região Nordeste do Brasil, 1996-2016. MÉTODOS: Estudo ecológico envolvendo a mortalidade por DIC nos estados do Nordeste. Variáveis analisadas: sexo, idade, escolaridade, estado civil, categoria do CID-10 e estado de residências. Foram calculadas taxas brutas e padronizadas. Os dados de óbitos foram coletados do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade; e os dados populacionais, do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Nas análises temporais, utilizou-se o modelo de regressão por pontos de inflexão, com cálculo do percentual de variação anual (APC, Annual Percent Change) e do percentual de variação médio do período (AAPC, Average Annual Percent Change). Considerou-se intervalo de confiança de 95% e significância de 5%. RESULTADOS: Registrou-se 405.916 óbitos por DIC na região Nordeste durante o período estudado. O perfil de óbitos caracteriza-se por homens (n=229.006; 56,42%), idosos (n=301.379; 74,25%), raça/cor parda (n=197.936; 48,76%), fundamental ou <4 anos na escola (n=232.599; 57,30%) e casados (n=179.599; 44,25%). Houve destaque incomum para o aumento na taxa de incremento anual na faixa etária de adolescentes (AAPC: 5,2%, p<0,01). A taxa de mortalidade regional padronizada cresceu de 30,7/100 mil habitantes, em 1996, para 53,8/100 mil, em 2016 (AAPC:2,8%; p<0,01). Todos os nove estados apresentaram tendência estatisticamente significante de crescimento, com ênfases para o Maranhão (AAPC:7,6%; p<0,01) e o Piauí (AAPC:6,0%; p<0,01). CONCLUSÃO: O perfil prevalente observado foi de homens, idosos, raça/cor parda, baixa escolaridade e casados. A mortalidade por DIC apresentou tendência de crescimento em todos os estados, ainda que com padrão desigual entre as unidades federadas.

[Spatial and temporal patterns of mortality among motorcyclists in a State of the Brazilian Northeast in the 21st century]. / Padrões espaciais e temporais da mortalidade de motociclistas em estado do nordeste brasileiro no século XXI.

The scope of this work was to analyze the trend and distribution of mortality among motorcyclists in traffic accidents in the State of Alagoas. It involved an ecological study relating to all deaths resulting from motorcycle accidents in the state in the period from 2001 to 2015. Mortality data were obtained from the Mortality Information System (MIS). Mortality rates were calculated and stratified by gender. The joinpoint regression model was used for trend analysis and the Annual Percentage Variation (APV) was calculated with a significance rate of 5%. For the spatial analysis, local empirical Bayesian modeling and Moran statistics and spatial scanning statistics were applied. There were 1,458 deaths of motorcyclists in the period studied, 91.3% of which were men. Three temporal behaviors were observed in this population group: growth (2001-2005), stationary pattern (2005-2013) and decline from 2013 onwards. The highest rates were observed in the 'agreste' and 'sertão' regions of the state of Alagoas. Five spatial clusters were revealed with relation to general and male mortality, all located in the 'agreste' and 'sertão' hinterlands of Alagoas. The modeling showed a reduction of mortality from 2013 onwards and the spatial analysis revealed that the problem is more acute in the interior of the state.

Este trabalho objetivou analisar a tendência e a distribuição espacial da mortalidade de motociclistas em acidentes de transporte no estado de Alagoas. Trata-se de um estudo ecológico referente a todos os óbitos decorrentes de acidentes motociclísticos no estado no período 2001-2015. Os dados de mortalidade foram obtidos do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM). As taxas de mortalidade foram calculadas e estratificadas por sexo. Para a análise de tendência, foi empregado o modelo de regressão por pontos de inflexão. Calculou-se a Variação Percentual Anual (VPA). Significância de 5%. Para a análise espacial, aplicou-se modelagem bayesiana empírica local, estatística de Moran e estatística de varredura espacial. Foram registrados 1.458 óbitos de motociclistas no período estudado, sendo 91,3% homens. Três comportamentos temporais foram observados nessa população: crescimento (2001-2005), padrão estacionário (2005-2013) e declínio a partir de 2013. As maiores taxas foram observadas no agreste e sertão. Cinco aglomerados espaciais foram evidenciados no que se refere à mortalidade geral e masculina, todos situados no agreste e sertão alagoanos. A modelagem mostrou redução da mortalidade a partir de 2013 e a análise espacial evidenciou que o problema é mais grave no interior do estado.

Cerebrovascular Disease Mortality Trend in Brazil (1996 To 2015) and Association with Human Development Index and Social Vulnerability. / Tendência da Mortalidade por Doenças Cerebrovasculares no Brasil (1996-2015) e Associação com Desenvolvimento Humano e Vulnerabilidade Social.

BACKGROUND: Cerebrovascular diseases (CBVD) are the second major cause of death in the world. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the mortality trend of CBVD in Brazil (1996 to 2015) and its association with Human Development Index (HDI) and the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). METHODS: This is an ecological study. We analyzed the mortality rate standardized by CBVD. Death data were obtained from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and populational data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The model of regression by inflection points (Joinpoint regression) was used to perform the temporal analysis, calculating the Annual Percent Change (APC) and Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC), with 95% of confidence interval and a significance of 5%. Trends were classified as increasing, decreasing or stationary. A multivariate regression model was used to analyze the association between mortality by CBVD, HDI and SVI. RESULTS: During this period, 1,850,811 deaths by CBVD were recorded. We observed a reduction in the national mortality rate (APC -2.4; p = 0.001). Twenty federation units showed a significant trend, of which 13 showed reduction, including all states in the Midwest (n=4), Southeast (n=4) and South (n=3). The HDI was positively associated and the SVI was negatively associated with mortality (p = 0.046 and p = 0.026, respectively). CONCLUSION: An unequal epidemiological course of mortality was observed between the regions, being higher in the Southeast and South states, with a significative tendency of reduction, and lower in the North and Northeast states, but with a significative tendency of increase. HDI and SVI showed an association with mortality. (Arq Bras Cardiol. 2021; 116(1):89-99).

FUNDAMENTO: As doenças cerebrovasculares (DCBV) constituem a segunda causa de mortes no mundo. OBJETIVO: Analisar a tendência da mortalidade por DCVB no Brasil (1996-2015) e associação com o índice de desenvolvimento humano (IDH) e o índice de vulnerabilidade social (IVS). MÉTODOS: Trata-se de estudo ecológico envolvendo as taxas de mortalidade padronizadas por DCBV. Os dados dos óbitos foram obtidos do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade e os dados populacionais, do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Para as análises temporais, foi utilizado o modelo de regressão por pontos de inflexão, sendo calculado o percentual de variação anual (annual percent change [APC]) e médio do período (average annual percent change [AAPC]), com intervalo de confiança de 95% e significância de 5%. As tendências foram classificadas em crescente, decrescente ou estacionária. O modelo de regressão multivariada foi utilizado para testar a associação entre a mortalidade por DCBV, IDH e IVS. RESULTADOS: Foram registrados 1.850.811 óbitos por DCBV no período estudado. Observou-se redução da taxa de mortalidade nacional (APC: -2,4; p = 0,001). Vinte unidades federativas apresentaram tendências significativas, sendo 13 de redução, incluindo todos das regiões Centro-Oeste (n = 4), Sudeste (n = 4) e Sul (n = 3). O IDH teve associação positiva e o IVS, associação negativa com a mortalidade (p = 0,046 e p = 0,026, respectivamente). CONCLUSÃO: O estudo mostrou comportamento epidemiológico desigual da mortalidade entre as regiões, sendo maior nos estados do Sudeste e Sul, porém com tendência significativa de redução, e menor nos estados do Norte e Nordeste, mas com tendência significativa de crescimento. O IDH e o IVS associaram-se com a mortalidade. (Arq Bras Cardiol. 2021; 116(1):89-99).

Leprosy in Brazil in the 21st century: analysis of epidemiological and operational indicators using inflection point regression.

The objective of this study was to analyze the trend of epidemiological and operational indicators of leprosy in Brazil, from 2001 to 2017. This was a time series study involving nine indicators. The inflection point regression model was used. Decreasing trends were observed for the following: general detection (-4.8%), children under 15 (-3.7%), prevalence (-7.0%), and grade 2/million inhabitants (-3.5%). The proportion of individuals with grade 2 disability showed an upward trend (2.0%) from 2001 as well as contacts examined from 2003 (5.0%). The proportions of cure and of individuals with a degree of disability assessed at the time of the diagnosis and the cure showed a stationary behavior. Although advances are noted, there are still challenges to be overcome.

Epidemiological monitoring of leprosy indicators in Sergipe (2001-2015): segmented regression analysis.

This study analyzed the trend of leprosy indicators in Sergipe, between 2001 and 2015. It was a time series study that analyzed the trend for general detection coefficient, children under 15 years of age, and new cases with grade 2 disability. The joinpoint model was used. Two (2.6%) municipalities had an increasing trend in general detection coefficient, five (6.6%) had an increasing trend in detection rate in children under 15, and 19 (25.3%) had an increasing trend in detection coefficient of new leprosy cases with grade 2 disability. The findings suggest maintenance of the chain of transmission.

Tuberculosis in Northeastern Brasil (2001-2016): trend, clinical profile, and prevalence of risk factors and associated comorbidities.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the temporal trend, clinical profile, and the prevalence of risk factors and associated comorbidities in new cases of tuberculosis in the Northeast (2001-2016). METHODS: A prevalence study involving all tuberculosis cases registered in Northeast Brasil, 2001-2016. Data were obtained from the National System of Notification of Disorders. For statistical analysis, the inflection point regression model and descriptive statistics were used. RESULTS: 331,245 cases of tuberculosis were reported. The overall incidence rate decreased from 44.84/100,000 inhabitants (2001) to 30.92/100,000 inhabitants (2016), with a decreasing trend (AAPC: -2.3; p<0.001). The profile was characterized by men (73.53%), age 20-59 years (73.56%), pulmonary tuberculosis (86.37%), positive smear microscopy (54.78%). The main risk factors and comorbidities were: AIDS (4.64%), HIV (12.10%), Diabetes mellitus (5.46%), alcohol (11.63%), institutionalized, (4.31%) and deprived of liberty (2.30%). The cure rate was 70.66% and the abandonment rate was 9.11%. CONCLUSIONS: Even with a reduced incidence, tuberculosis represents a real public health problem in the Northeast region. The profile was characterized by a male population, in economically-active age, lung smear-positive pulmonary presentation, and the risk factors and comorbidities of Aids, TB/HIV co-infection, diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption, institutionalized and deprived of freedom reflect the complexity of the challenges in facing the disease.

Mortality of motorcyclists due to traffic injuries in Brasil: a population-based study in Brazilian capitals.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the mortality trend of young men who were victims of traffic injuries involving motorcycles in all Brazilian capitals from 2001 to 2015. METHODS: A time-series study on all deaths of men aged 20-39 years old due to traffic injuries involving motorcycles in all 27 Brazilian capitals. We used the joinpoint regression model for temporal analysis and calculated the Annual Percent Change (APC) and Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) to verify the mortality trends. RESULTS: A total of 12,058 deaths of young men were recorded in the Brazilian capitals during the period studied. The highest mortality rates were observed in Boa Vista/Roraima (34.0/100,000 population) and Palmas/Tocantins (29.80/100,000). Twelve of the 27 capitals showed an increasing trend in mortality, with the highest percentage increase being observed in Salvador (APC: 29.0%) and São Paulo (APC: 13.1%). None of the capitals showed a decline in the trend of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the mortality of young men from traffic injuries involving motorcycles shows an increasing trend in 12 of the 27 capitals, which represents a public health problem that requires the implementation of more effective public policies.

Syphilis among pregnant women in Northeast Brazil from 2008 to 2015: a trend analysis according to sociodemographic and clinical characteristics.

INTRODUCTION: The number of syphilis cases among pregnant women in Brazil has increased. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trend of syphilis indicators among pregnant women in Northeast Brazil. METHODS: A time-series study was performed. RESULTS: We observed an increase in the detection rate of syphilis among pregnant women, those aged 15-19 years, and those of brown ethnicity. A strong correlation was observed between the detection rate of syphilis and family health strategy coverage. CONCLUSIONS: Despite an increase in primary care coverage, The increase in cases of syphilis among pregnant women is still considered a challenge.

Trend of leprosy detection rate in Brazil, 1990 to 2016.

The objective of this study was to describe the trend of detection of the disease in Brazil from 1990 to 2016. The joinpoint regression model was used. There was a significant trend of decreased detection in the country (average annual percent change -1.8%) and in the South (average annual percent change=-3.5%) and Southeast regions (average annual percent change=-4.5%). The Northeast (average annual percent change=0.2%), the Central-West (average annual percent change=-1.5%), and the North (average annual percent change=-2.6%) showed a stationary trend (p>0.05). Eleven states showed a decreasing trend. Alagoas (average annual percent change=2.1%) and Rio Grande do Norte (average annual percent change=1.4%) presented significant increase (p<0.001). The heterogeneous pattern of trend between regions and states shows that efforts are needed to eliminate the disease.

Trends in tuberculosis mortality in Brazil (1990-2015): joinpoint analysis.

The objective of this study was to analyze trends in the tuberculosis mortality rate in Brazil (1990-2015) in an ecological time-series analysis. The indicators were obtained from the Brazilian National Ministry of Health. A joinpoint regression model was applied for the temporal analysis, with a level of significance of 5%. During the period in question, there was a trend toward a reduction in mortality in the country as a whole (p < 0.001) and in each of its five regions. The states with the highest tuberculosis mortality rates were Rio de Janeiro (7.0/100,000 population) and Pernambuco (5.0/100,000 population). Eleven states and the Federal District of Brasília showed downward trends. Only the state of Alagoas showed a significant increase (p < 0.001). The temporal behavior observed indicates that tuberculosis continues to be a major public health problem in Brazil.

Mortality in motorcycle accidents in Alagoas (2001-2015): temporal and spatial modeling before and after the "lei seca".

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the epidemiological profile and the Spatio-temporal distribution of mortality in motorcycle accidents in Alagoas before (2001-2007) and after the "Lei seca" (2008-2015). METHODS: This is a mixed ecologic study. All deaths in the state with the codes V20-V29 (ICD-10) as the basic cause were included in the study. Sociodemographic variables and mortality rates per sex were analyzed. For the temporal analysis, the inflection point regression model was used. For spatial analysis, the rates were smoothed by the Local Empirical Bayesian Model and, subsequently, the Global and Local Moran statistic was used to identify the spatial clusters of risk. RESULTS: There were 1458 deaths caused by motorcycle accidents in the period studied; the following characteristics about the victims stand out: male (91.29%), economically active age (82.93%), and brown race (78.12%). In the male population, there was a growth trend between 2001 and 2007 (19.0%, p<0.001), and a decline from 2008 (-11.2%, p<0.001). Spatial modeling showed that the areas with the highest risk of mortality are located in the agreste and sertão of the state (p = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Mortality in motorcycle accidents is an important public health problem in Alagoas, with an emphasis on male mortality and geographic concentration within the state.

Social determinants of mortality due to visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil (2001-2015): an ecological study.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to analyze the relationship between visceral leishmaniasis mortality and social determinants of health (SDH). METHODS: This was an ecological study of all leishmaniasis-related deaths in Brazil, from 2001 to 2015. We analyzed 49 indicators of human development and social vulnerability. The association was tested using the classical and spatial regression model. RESULTS: Mortality was associated with indicators that expressed low human development and high social vulnerability: lack of garbage collection, low schooling, unemployment rate, low per capita income, and income inequality (Gini index). CONCLUSIONS: There was an association between high mortality by leishmaniasis and low SDH.

Physical disabilities due to leprosy in Alagoas State, Northeast Brazil: a temporal and spatial modeling.

INTRODUCTION: Monitoring disability trends is required to evaluate leprosy elimination. We assessed the trends in disability indicators and its association with space in Alagoas, Brazil. METHODS: We conducted an ecological study in all leprosy cases from 2006 to 2016. Disability indicators were analyzed using the joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: The proportion of new cases with grade 2 disability at diagnosis ranged from 4.7% to 11.9% (annual percent change, 1.4; P= 0.7), while at discharge, it ranged from 0.0% to 12.3% (annual percent change, -21.8; P= 0.2). CONCLUSIONS: Disability indicators had a stable trend over the study period.

Schistosomiasis mansoni in the northeast region of brazil: temporal modeling of positivity, hospitalization,and mortality rates.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to analyze trends in Schistosomiasis positivity, mortality, and hospitalization rates in Northeast Brazil. METHODS: We conducted an ecological study using data from the Brazilian Schistosomiasis Control Program, and Hospital and Mortality Information Systems. A joinpoint regression model was used for temporal analysis. RESULTS: The positivity(-4.7%;p<0.001) and hospitalization(-17.7%;p<0.001) rates declined globally, while the mortality remained stationary (-0.8%;p>0.05). However, the hospitalization in Alagoas(27.1%;p<0.001) and Pernambuco (35.1%;p<0.001), and the mortality in Bahia(2.9%;p<0.001) and Sergipe(4.1%;p<0.001), increased. CONCLUSIONS: Schistosomiasis mansoni represents an important public health problem in Pernambuco, Alagoas, Sergipe, and Bahia.

Spatial study of leprosy in Bahia, Brazil, 2001-2012: an approach based on the local empirical Bayesian model. / Estudo espacial da hanseníase na Bahia, 2001-2012: abordagem a partir do modelo bayesiano empírico local.

OBJECTIVE: to compare the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of epidemiological indicators of leprosy, both crude and also corrected using the empirical Bayesian model, Bahia, Brazil, 2001-2012. METHODS: this was an ecological study using data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System; all 417 municipalities in Bahia were included and the following indicators per 100,000 inhabitants were analyzed - detection rate of new cases in the general population, in those <15 years old, and in those with grade 2 physical disability -; the local empirical Bayesian model was used to smoothen the indicators, and Student's t-test was used to compare means. RESULTS: indicators estimated by the model were higher than crude indicators; estimated detection rates in the general population and in those <15 years old were higher than crude rates in 253 (60.7%) and 209 (50.1%) municipalities, respectively; areas of greatest risk were concentrated in the northwestern and southern regions of the state. CONCLUSION: spatial distribution of the disease was heterogeneous and there was possible underreporting of cases.

Excesso de Mortalidade Hospitalar por Doenças Cardiovasculares no Brasil Durante o Primeiro Ano da Pandemia de COVID-19 / In-Hospital Mortality from Cardiovascular Diseases in Brazil during the First Year of The COVID-19 Pandemic

Resumo Fundamento: A pandemia da COVID-19 tem causado um impacto sobre a mortalidade por várias doenças em todo o mundo, especialmente por doenças cardiovasculares (DCVs). O Brasil é um país de dimensões continentais com diferenças significativas na estrutura de saúde entre seus estados. Objetivo: Analisar a mortalidade hospitalar por DCV no sistema público de saúde durante o primeiro ano da pandemia por COVID-19 (2020) no Brasil. Métodos: Este é um estudo ecológico analisando o número absoluto de mortes hospitalares e a taxa de mortalidade hospitalar no Brasil, suas macrorregiões, e unidades federativas. Os dados foram obtidos do Sistema de Informações Hospitalares (SIH) do Ministério da Saúde. O P-escore foi usado para analisar o excesso de mortalidade. O escore compara os eventos observados com os eventos esperados para um dado local e período. O escore-P foi corrigido por um modelo de regressão joinpoint, com um intervalo de confiança de 95% e nível de significância de 5%. Resultados: Houve 93.104 óbitos hospitalares por DCV no Brasil em 2020, o que representa 1495 menos óbitos (escore-P: -1,58) que o esperado. A região centro-oeste apresentou um escore-P positivo, com um aumento de 15,1% no número de mortes. Dez estados apresentaram um maior número de óbitos em 2020. Ainda, observou-se um excesso de 13,3% de mortalidade hospitalar no país como um todo, e um excesso de mortalidade hospitalar em todas as macrorregiões. Conclusões: Houve uma diminuição no número absoluto de óbitos hospitalares, bem como um aumento na taxa de mortalidade por DCV no Brasil em 2020, após o início da pandemia por COVID-19.

Abstract Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact on mortality from several diseases worldwide, especially cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Brazil is a continent-sized country with significant differences in the health care structure between its federative units. Objective: Analyze in-hospital mortality from CVDs in the Brazilian public health system during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020). Methods: This is an ecological study analyzing the absolute number of in-hospital deaths and the rate of in-hospital mortality in Brazil, its macro-regions, and federative units. Data were obtained from the Hospital Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. To analyze excess mortality, the P-score was used. It compares the events observed with those expected for a given place and period. The P-score was corrected by the joinpoint regression model, with a 95% confidence interval and 5% significance level. Results: There were 93,104 in-hospital deaths due to CVD in Brazil in 2020, representing 1,495 fewer deaths (P score: −1.58) than expected. The central-west region had a positive P-score, with a 15.1% increase in the number of deaths. Ten federative units showed a greater number of deaths in 2020. There was also a 13.3% excess in-hospital mortality at the country level, and an excess in-hospital mortality in all macro-regions. Conclusions: There was a decrease in the absolute number of in-hospital deaths, as well as an increase in in-hospital mortality from CVD in Brazil, in 2020, after the COVID-19 pandemic onset.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on compulsory notification of meningitis during the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil: an ecological study using P-score

Abstract BACKGROUND: Meningitis is listed as one of the diseases requiring compulsory notification in Brazil. It can affect all age groups and also has no seasonality. Cases can be recorded in all months of the year and in all states of Brazil. Despite its importance, the obligation of immediate notification may have been compromised by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the immediate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on compulsory notifications of meningitis in Brazil and its states during the first wave of the pandemic. DESIGN AND SETTING: This was an ecological study involving all confirmed cases of meningitis in Brazil, in its regions and in its states. METHODS: Data for the months from 2015 to 2020 were obtained from the database of the Notifiable Diseases Information System (Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação, SINAN), in the Department of Informatics of the National Health System (Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde, DATASUS). The P-score was used to obtain the percentage change in the numbers of cases reported in 2020. RESULTS: A 45.7% reduction in notifications of meningitis in Brazil was observed. Regarding the regions and the states, with the exception of Roraima, all of them showed a negative P-score, with decreasing curves each month. CONCLUSION: The pandemic caused a negative impact on meningitis notifications in Brazil.