Drug resistance and epidemiological success of modern Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineages in western India.

BACKGROUND: Transmission is contributing to the slow decline of tuberculosis (TB) incidence globally. Drivers of TB transmission in India, the country estimated to carry a quarter of the World's burden, are not well studied. We conducted a genomic epidemiology study to compare epidemiological success, host factors and drug resistance (DR) among the four major Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) lineages (L1-4) circulating in Pune, India. METHODS: We performed whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of Mtb sputum culture-positive isolates from participants in two prospective cohort studies and predicted genotypic susceptibility using a validated random forest model. We used maximum likelihood estimation to build phylogenies. We compared lineage specific phylogenetic and time-scaled metrics to assess epidemiological success. RESULTS: Of the 642 isolates that underwent WGS, 612 met sequence quality criteria. Most isolates belonged to L3 (44.6%). The majority (61.1%) of multidrug-resistant isolates belonged to L2 (P < 0.001). In molecular dating, L2 demonstrated a higher rate and more recent resistance acquisition. We measured higher clustering, and time-scaled haplotypic density (THD) for L4 and L2 compared to L3 and/or L1 suggesting higher epidemiological success. L4 demonstrated higher THD and clustering (OR 5.1 (95% CI 2.3-12.3) in multivariate models controlling for host factors and DR. CONCLUSION: L2 shows a higher frequency of DR and both L2 and L4 demonstrate evidence of higher epidemiological success than L3 or L1 in the study setting. Our findings highlight the need for contact tracing around TB cases, and heightened surveillance of TB DR in India.

Undernourished Household Contacts Are at Increased Risk of Tuberculosis (TB) Disease, but not TB Infection- a Multicenter Prospective Cohort Analysis.

Undernutrition is the leading risk factor for tuberculosis (TB) globally and in India. This multicenter prospective cohort analysis from India suggests that undernutrition is associated with increased risk of TB disease but not TB infection among household contacts of persons with TB.

Factors associated with unfavourable treatment outcomes among persons with Pulmonary Tuberculosis: a multicentric prospective cohort study from India.

In this prospective cohort of 2,006 individuals with non-MDR tuberculosis in India, 18% had unfavorable treatment outcomes (4.7% treatment failure, 2.5% recurrent infection, 4.1% death, 6.8% loss to follow-up) over a median 12-month follow-up period. Age, male sex, low education, nutritional status, and alcohol use were predictors of unfavorable outcomes.

QuantiFERON Supernatant-Based Host Biomarkers Predicting Progression to Active Tuberculosis Disease Among Household Contacts of Tuberculosis Patients.

BACKGROUND: The positive predictive value of tuberculin skin test and current generation interferon gamma release assays are very low leading to high numbers needed to treat. Therefore, it is critical to identify new biomarkers with high predictive accuracy to identify individuals bearing high risk of progression to active tuberculosis (TB). METHODS: We used stored QuantiFERON supernatants from 14 household contacts of index TB patients who developed incident active TB during a 2-year follow-up and 20 age and sex-matched non-progressors. The supernatants were tested for an expanded panel of 45 cytokines, chemokines, and growth factors using the Luminex Multiplex Array kit. RESULTS: We found significant differences in the levels of TB-antigen induced production of several analytes between progressors and non-progressors. Dominance analysis identified 15 key predictive biomarkers based on relative percentage importance. Principal component analysis revealed that these biomarkers could robustly distinguish between the 2 groups. Receiver operating characteristic analysis identified interferon-γ inducible protein (IP)-10, chemokine ligand (CCL)19, interferon (IFN)-γ, interleukin (IL)-1ra, CCL3, and granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF) as the most promising predictive markers, with area under the curve (AUC) ≥90. IP-10/CCL19 ratio exhibited maximum sensitivity and specificity (100%) for predicting progression. Through Classification and Regression Tree analysis, a cutoff of 0.24 for IP-10/CCL19 ratio was found to be ideal for predicting short-term risk of progression to TB disease with a positive predictive value of 100 (95% confidence interval [CI] 85.8-100). CONCLUSIONS: The biomarkers identified in this study will pave way for the development of a more accurate test that can identify individuals at high risk for immediate progression to TB disease for targeted intervention.

Impact of Undernutrition on Tuberculosis Treatment Outcomes in India: A Multicenter, Prospective, Cohort Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Undernutrition is the leading risk factor for tuberculosis (TB) globally. Its impact on treatment outcomes is poorly defined. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort analysis of adults with drug-sensitive pulmonary TB at 5 sites from 2015-2019. Using multivariable Poisson regression, we assessed associations between unfavorable outcomes and nutritional status based on body mass index (BMI) nutritional status at treatment initiation, BMI prior to TB disease, stunting, and stagnant or declining BMI after 2 months of TB treatment. Unfavorable outcome was defined as a composite of treatment failure, death, or relapse within 6 months of treatment completion. RESULTS: Severe undernutrition (BMI <16 kg/m2) at treatment initiation and severe undernutrition before the onset of TB disease were both associated with unfavorable outcomes (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR], 2.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.42-2.91 and aIRR, 2.20; 95% CI, 1.16-3.94, respectively). Additionally, lack of BMI increase after treatment initiation was associated with increased unfavorable outcomes (aIRR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.27-2.61). Severe stunting (height-for-age z score <-3) was associated with unfavorable outcomes (aIRR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.00-2.24). Severe undernutrition at treatment initiation and lack of BMI increase during treatment were associated with a 4- and 5-fold higher rate of death, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Premorbid undernutrition, undernutrition at treatment initiation, lack of BMI increase after intensive therapy, and severe stunting are associated with unfavorable TB treatment outcomes. These data highlight the need to address this widely prevalent TB comorbidity. Nutritional assessment should be integrated into standard TB care.

Whole Genome Sequencing Assessing Impact of Diabetes Mellitus on Tuberculosis Mutations and Type of Recurrence in India.

BACKGROUND: Evidence describing the impact of diabetes mellitus (DM) on the recurrence and mutation rate of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) is limited. METHODS: This study was nested in 3 cohort studies of tuberculosis (TB) patients with and without DM in India. Paired Mtb isolates recovered at baseline and treatment failure/recurrence underwent whole genome sequencing. We compared acquisition of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), TB drug resistance mutations, and type of recurrence (endogenous reactivation [<8 SNPs] or exogenous reinfection [≥8 SNPs]) by DM status. RESULTS: Of 1633 enrolled in the 3 parent cohorts, 236 (14.5%) had microbiologically confirmed TB treatment failure/recurrence; 76 Mtb isolate pairs were available for sequencing (22 in TB-DM and 54 in TB-only). The SNP acquisition rate was overall was 0.43 (95% confidence interval [CI], .25-.64) per 1 person-year (PY); 0.77 (95% CI, .40-1.35) per 1 PY, and 0.44 (95% CI, .19-.86) per 1 PY at treatment failure and recurrence, respectively. Significant difference in SNP rates by DM status was seen at recurrence (0.21 [95% CI, .04-.61]) per 1 PY for TB-only vs 1.28 (95% CI, .41-2.98) per 1 PY for TB-DM; P = .02). No significant difference in SNP rates by DM status was observed at treatment failure. Acquired TB drug resistance was seen in 4 of 18 (22%) in TB-DM vs 4 of 45 (9%) in TB-only (P = .21). Thirteen (17%) participants had exogenous reinfection; the reinfection rate at recurrence was 25% (3/12) for TB-DM vs 17% (4/24) in TB-only (P = .66). CONCLUSIONS: Considerable intrahost Mtb mutation rates were present at recurrence among patients with DM in India. One-fourth of patients with DM had exogenous reinfection at recurrence.

Randomized Clinical Trial of High-Dose Rifampicin With or Without Levofloxacin Versus Standard of Care for Pediatric Tuberculous Meningitis: The TBM-KIDS Trial.

BACKGROUND: Pediatric tuberculous meningitis (TBM) commonly causes death or disability. In adults, high-dose rifampicin may reduce mortality. The role of fluoroquinolones remains unclear. There have been no antimicrobial treatment trials for pediatric TBM. METHODS: TBM-KIDS was a phase 2 open-label randomized trial among children with TBM in India and Malawi. Participants received isoniazid and pyrazinamide plus: (i) high-dose rifampicin (30 mg/kg) and ethambutol (R30HZE, arm 1); (ii) high-dose rifampicin and levofloxacin (R30HZL, arm 2); or (iii) standard-dose rifampicin and ethambutol (R15HZE, arm 3) for 8 weeks, followed by 10 months of standard treatment. Functional and neurocognitive outcomes were measured longitudinally using Modified Rankin Scale (MRS) and Mullen Scales of Early Learning (MSEL). RESULTS: Of 2487 children prescreened, 79 were screened and 37 enrolled. Median age was 72 months; 49%, 43%, and 8% had stage I, II, and III disease, respectively. Grade 3 or higher adverse events occurred in 58%, 55%, and 36% of children in arms 1, 2, and 3, with 1 death (arm 1) and 6 early treatment discontinuations (4 in arm 1, 1 each in arms 2 and 3). By week 8, all children recovered to MRS score of 0 or 1. Average MSEL scores were significantly better in arm 1 than arm 3 in fine motor, receptive language, and expressive language domains (P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: In a pediatric TBM trial, functional outcomes were excellent overall. The trend toward higher frequency of adverse events but better neurocognitive outcomes in children receiving high-dose rifampicin requires confirmation in a larger trial. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02958709.

Host lipidome and tuberculosis treatment failure.

INTRODUCTION: Host lipids play important roles in tuberculosis (TB) pathogenesis. Whether host lipids at TB treatment initiation (baseline) affect subsequent treatment outcomes has not been well characterised. We used unbiased lipidomics to study the prospective association of host lipids with TB treatment failure. METHODS: A case-control study (n=192), nested within a prospective cohort study, was used to investigate the association of baseline plasma lipids with TB treatment failure among adults with pulmonary TB. Cases (n=46) were defined as TB treatment failure, while controls (n=146) were those without failure. Complex lipids and inflammatory lipid mediators were measured using liquid chromatography mass spectrometry techniques. Adjusted least-square regression was used to assess differences in groups. In addition, machine learning identified lipids with highest area under the curve (AUC) to classify cases and controls. RESULTS: Baseline levels of 32 lipids differed between controls and those with treatment failure after false discovery rate adjustment. Treatment failure was associated with lower baseline levels of cholesteryl esters and oxylipin, and higher baseline levels of ceramides and triglycerides compared to controls. Two cholesteryl ester lipids combined in a unique classifier model provided an AUC of 0.79 (95% CI 0.65-0.93) in the test dataset for prediction of TB treatment failure. CONCLUSIONS: We identified lipids, some with known roles in TB pathogenesis, associated with TB treatment failure. In addition, a lipid signature with prognostic accuracy for TB treatment failure was identified. These lipids could be potential targets for risk-stratification, adjunct therapy and treatment monitoring.

Baseline IL-6 is a biomarker for unfavourable tuberculosis treatment outcomes: a multisite discovery and validation study.

BACKGROUND: Biomarkers of unfavourable tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes are needed to accelerate new drug and regimen development. Whether plasma cytokine levels can predict unfavourable TB treatment outcomes is unclear. METHODS: We identified and internally validated the association between 20 a priori selected plasma inflammatory markers and unfavourable treatment outcomes of failure, recurrence and all-cause mortality among adults with drug-sensitive pulmonary TB in India. We externally validated these findings in two independent cohorts of predominantly diabetic and HIV co-infected TB patients in India and South Africa, respectively. RESULTS: Pre-treatment interferon-γ, interleukin (IL)-13 and IL-6 were associated with treatment failure in the discovery analysis. Internal validation confirmed higher pre-treatment IL-6 concentrations among failure cases compared with controls. External validation among predominantly diabetic TB patients found an association between pre-treatment IL-6 concentrations and subsequent recurrence and death. Similarly, external validation among predominantly HIV co-infected TB patients found an association between pre-treatment IL-6 concentrations and subsequent treatment failure and death. In a pooled analysis of 363 TB cases from the Indian and South African validation cohorts, high pre-treatment IL-6 concentrations were associated with higher risk of failure (adjusted OR (aOR) 2.16, 95% CI 1.08-4.33; p=0.02), recurrence (aOR 5.36, 95% CI 2.48-11.57; p<0.001) and death (aOR 4.62, 95% CI 1.95-10.95; p<0.001). Adding baseline IL-6 to a risk prediction model comprised of low body mass index, high smear grade and cavitation improved model performance by 15% (C-statistic 0.66 versus 0.76; p=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Pre-treatment IL-6 is a biomarker for unfavourable TB treatment outcomes. Future studies should identify optimal IL-6 concentrations for point-of-care risk prediction.

Mullen Scales of Early Learning Adaptation for Assessment of Indian Children and Application to Tuberculous Meningitis.

INTRODUCTION: Tuberculous meningitis (TBM) results in significant morbidity and mortality among children worldwide. Associated neurocognitive complications are common but not well characterized. The Mullen Scales of Early Learning (MSEL), a well-established measure for assessment of neurodevelopment, has not yet been adapted for use in India. This study's goal was to adapt the MSEL for local language and culture to assess neurocognition among children in India, and apply the adapted measure for assessment of children with TBM. METHODS: Administration of MSEL domains was culturally adapted. Robust translation procedures for instructions took place for three local languages: Marathi, Hindi and Tamil. Multilingual staff compared instructions against the original version for accuracy. The MSEL stimuli and instructions were reviewed by psychologists and pediatricians in India to identify items concerning for cultural bias. RESULTS: MSEL stimuli unfamiliar to children in this setting were identified and modified within Visual Reception, Fine-Motor, Receptive Language and Expressive Language Scales. Item category was maintained for adaptations of items visually or linguistically different from those observed in daily life. Adjusted items were administered to six typically developing children to determine modification utility. Two children diagnosed with confirmed TBM (ages 11 and 29 months) were evaluated with the adapted MSEL before receiving study medications. Skills were below age-expectation across visual reception, fine motor and expressive language domains. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to assess children with TBM using the MSEL adapted for use in India. Future studies in larger groups of Indian children are warranted to validate the adapted measure.

Transcriptomic Profiles of Confirmed Pediatric Tuberculosis Patients and Household Contacts Identifies Active Tuberculosis, Infection, and Treatment Response Among Indian Children.

BACKGROUND: Gene expression profiling is emerging as a tool for tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment response monitoring, but limited data specific to Indian children and incident tuberculosis infection (TBI) exist. METHODS: Sixteen pediatric Indian tuberculosis cases were age- and sex-matched to 32 tuberculosis-exposed controls (13 developed incident TBI without subsequent active tuberculosis). Longitudinal samples were collected for ribonucleic acid sequencing. Differential expression analysis generated gene lists that identify tuberculosis diagnosis and tuberculosis treatment response. Data were compared with published gene lists. Population-specific risk score thresholds were calculated. RESULTS: Seventy-one genes identified tuberculosis diagnosis and 25 treatment response. Within-group expression was partially explained by age, sex, and incident TBI. Transient changes in gene expression were identified after both infection and treatment. Application of 27 published gene lists to our data found variable performance for tuberculosis diagnosis (sensitivity 0.38-1.00, specificity 0.48-0.93) and treatment response (sensitivity 0.70-0.80, specificity 0.40-0.80). Our gene lists found similarly variable performance when applied to published datasets for diagnosis (sensitivity 0.56-0.85, specificity 0.50-0.85) and treatment response (sensitivity 0.49- 0.86, specificity 0.50-0.84). CONCLUSIONS: Gene expression profiles among Indian children with confirmed tuberculosis were distinct from adult-derived gene lists, highlighting the importance of including distinct populations in differential gene expression models.

Subtherapeutic Rifampicin Concentration Is Associated With Unfavorable Tuberculosis Treatment Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: The relationships between first-line drug concentrations and clinically important outcomes among patients with tuberculosis (TB) remain poorly understood. METHODS: We enrolled a prospective cohort of patients with new pulmonary TB receiving thrice-weekly treatment in India. The maximum plasma concentration of each drug was determined at months 1 and 5 using blood samples drawn 2 hours postdose. Subtherapeutic cutoffs were: rifampicin <8 µg/mL, isoniazid <3 µg/mL, and pyrazinamide <20 µg/mL. Factors associated with lower log-transformed drug concentrations, unfavorable outcomes (composite of treatment failure, all-cause mortality, and recurrence), and individual outcomes were examined using Poisson regression models. RESULTS: Among 404 participants, rifampicin, isoniazid, and pyrazinamide concentrations were subtherapeutic in 85%, 29%, and 13%, respectively, at month 1 (with similar results for rifampicin and isoniazid at month 5). Rifampicin concentrations were lower with human immunodeficiency virus coinfection (median, 1.6 vs 4.6 µg/mL; P = .015). Unfavorable outcome was observed in 19%; a 1-µg/mL decrease in rifampicin concentration was independently associated with unfavorable outcome (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR], 1.21 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.01-1.47]) and treatment failure (aIRR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.05-1.28]). A 1-µg/mL decrease in pyrazinamide concentration was associated with recurrence (aIRR, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.01-1.11]). CONCLUSIONS: Rifampicin concentrations were subtherapeutic in most Indian patients taking a thrice-weekly TB regimen, and low rifampicin and pyrazinamide concentrations were associated with poor outcomes. Higher or more frequent dosing is needed to improve TB treatment outcomes in India.

The association of household fine particulate matter and kerosene with tuberculosis in women and children in Pune, India.

OBJECTIVES: Household air pollution (HAP) is a risk factor for respiratory disease, however has yet to be definitively associated with tuberculosis (TB). We aimed to assess the association between HAP and TB. METHODS: A matched case-control study was conducted among adult women and children patients with TB and healthy controls matched on geography, age and sex. HAP was assessed using questionnaires for pollution sources and 24-hour household concentrations of particulate matter <2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5). RESULTS: In total, 192 individuals in 96 matched pairs were included. The median 24-hour time-weighted average PM2.5 was nearly seven times higher than the WHO's recommendation of 25 µg/m3, and did not vary between controls (179 µg/m3; IQR: 113-292) and cases (median 157 µg/m3; 95% CI 93 to 279; p=0.57). Reported use of wood fuel was not associated with TB (OR 2.32; 95% CI 0.65 to 24.20) and kerosene was significantly associated with TB (OR 5.49, 95% CI 1.24 to 24.20) in adjusted analysis. Household PM2.5 was not associated with TB in univariate or adjusted analysis. Controlling for PM2.5 concentration, kerosene was not significantly associated with TB, but effect sizes ranged from OR 4.30 (95% CI 0.78 to 30.86; p=0.09) to OR 5.49 (0.82 to 36.75; p=0.08). CONCLUSIONS: Use of kerosene cooking fuel is positively associated with TB in analysis using reported sources of exposure. Ubiquitously high levels of particulates limited detection of a difference in household PM2.5 between cases and controls.

Addressing knowledge gaps and prevention for tuberculosis-infected Indian adults: a vital part of elimination.

BACKGROUND: India plans to eliminate tuberculosis (TB) by 2025, and has identified screening and prevention as key activities. Household contacts (HHCs) of index TB cases are a high-risk population that would benefit from rapid implementation of these strategies. However, best practices for TB prevention and knowledge gaps among HHCs have not been studied. We evaluated TB knowledge and understanding of prevention among tuberculin skin-test (TST) positive HHCs. While extensive information is available in other high-burden settings regarding TB knowledge gaps, identifying how Indian adult contacts view their transmission risk and prevention options may inform novel screening algorithms and education efforts that will be part of the new elimination plan. METHODS: We approached adult HHC to administer a questionnaire on TB knowledge and understanding of infection. Over 1 year, 100 HHC were enrolled at a tertiary hospital in Pune, India. RESULTS: The study population was 61% (n = 61) female, with a mean age of 36.6 years (range 18-67, SD = 12). Education levels were high, with 78 (78%) having at least a high school education, and 23 (24%) had at least some college education. Four (4%) of our participants were HIV-infected. General TB knowledge among HHC was low, with a majority of participants believing that you can get TB from sharing dishes (70%) or touching something that has been coughed on (52%). Understanding of infection was also low, with 42% believing that being skin-test positive means you have disease. To assess readiness for preventive therapy, we asked participants whether they are at a higher risk of progressing to active disease because of their LTBI status. Fifty-four (55%) felt that they are at higher risk. Only 8% had heard of preventive therapy. CONCLUSION: Our TB knowledge survey among HHCs with evidence of recent exposure found that knowledge is poor and families are confused about transmission in the household. It is imperative that the Indian program develop tools and incentives that can be used to educate TB cases and their families on what infected HHCs can do to prevent disease, including preventive therapy.

The sound of silent RNA in tuberculosis and the lncRNA role on infection.

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the leading causes of death worldwide, and Diabetes Mellitus is one of the major comorbidities (TB/DM) associated with the disease. A total of 103 differentially expressed ncRNAs have been identified in the TB and TB/DM comparisons. A machine learning algorithm was employed to identify the most informative lncRNAs: ADM-DT, LINC02009, LINC02471, SOX2-OT, and GK-AS1. These lncRNAs presented substantial accuracy in classifying TB from HC (AUCs >0.85) and TB/DM from HC (AUCs >0.90) in the other three countries. Genes with significant correlations with the five lncRNAs enriched common pathways in Brazil and India for both TB and TB/DM. This suggests that lncRNAs play an important role in the regulation of genes related to the TB immune response.

Comparative immune responses to Mycobacterium tuberculosis in people with latent infection or sterilizing protection.

There is great need for vaccines against tuberculosis (TB) more efficacious than the licensed BCG. Our goal was to identify new vaccine benchmarks by identifying immune responses that distinguish individuals able to eradicate the infection (TB-resisters) from individuals with latent infection (LTBI-participants). TB-resisters had higher frequencies of circulating CD8+ glucose monomycolate (GMM)+ Granzyme-B+ T cells than LTBI-participants and higher proportions of polyfunctional conventional and nonconventional T cells expressing Granzyme-B and/or PD-1 after ex vivo M. tuberculosis stimulation of blood mononuclear cells. LTBI-participants had higher expression of activation markers and cytokines, including IL10, and IFNγ. An exploratory analysis of BCG-recipients with minimal exposure to TB showed absence of CD8+GMM+Granzyme-B+ T cells, lower or equal proportions of Granzyme-B+PD-1+ polyfunctional T cells than TB-resisters and higher or equal than LTBI-participants. In conclusion, high Granzyme-B+PD-1+ T cell responses to M. tuberculosis and, possibly, of CD8+GMM+Granzyme-B+ T cells may be desirable for new TB vaccines.

Early Microbiologic Markers of Pulmonary Tuberculosis Treatment Outcomes.

Rationale: Earlier biomarkers of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) treatment outcomes are critical to monitor shortened anti-TB treatment (ATT). Objectives: To identify early microbiologic markers of unfavorable TB treatment outcomes. Methods: We performed a subanalysis of 2 prospective TB cohort studies conducted from 2013 to 2019 in India. We included participants aged ⩾18 years who initiated 6-month ATT for clinically or microbiologically diagnosed drug-sensitive PTB and completed at least one follow-up visit. Sputum specimens were subjected to a baseline Xpert Mycobacterium tuberculosis/rifampin (MTB/RIF) assay, acid-fast bacilli (AFB) microscopy and liquid and solid cultures, and serial AFB microscopy and liquid and solid cultures at weeks 2, 4, and 8. Poisson regression was used to assess the impact of available microbiologic markers (test positivity, smear grade, time to detection, and time to conversion) on a composite outcome of failure, recurrence, or death by 18 months after the end of treatment. Models were adjusted for age, sex, nutritional status, diabetes, smoking, alcohol consumption, and regimen type. Results: Among 1,098 eligible cases, there were 251 (22%) adverse TB treatment outcomes: 127 (51%) treatment failures, 73 (29%) recurrences, and 51 (20%) deaths. The primary outcome was independently associated with the Xpert MTB/RIF assay (medium-positive adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR], 1.91; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-3.40; high-positive aIRR, 2.51; 95% CI, 1.41-4.46), positive AFB smear (aIRR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.06-2.06), and positive liquid culture (aIRR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.21-3.23) at baseline; Week 2 positive liquid culture (aIRR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.04-2.09); and Week 8 positive AFB smear (aIRR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.06-2.50) and positive liquid culture (aIRR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.07-2.22). There was no evidence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis growth in the Mycobacterium Growth Indicator Tube at Week 4 conferring a higher risk of adverse outcomes (aIRR, 1.25; 95% CI, 0.89-1.75). Conclusions: Our analysis identifies Week 2 respiratory mycobacterial culture as the earliest microbiologic marker of unfavorable PTB treatment outcomes.

Predictive performance of interferon-gamma release assays and the tuberculin skin test for incident tuberculosis: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

Background: Evidence on the comparative performance of purified protein derivative tuberculin skin tests (TST) and interferon-gamma release assays (IGRA) for predicting incident active tuberculosis (TB) remains conflicting. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis to directly compare the predictive performance for incident TB disease between TST and IGRA to inform policy. Methods: We searched Medline and Embase from 1 January 2002 to 4 September 2020, and studies that were included in previous systematic reviews. We included prospective longitudinal studies in which participants received both TST and IGRA and estimated performance as hazard ratios (HR) for the development of all diagnoses of TB in participants with dichotomised positive test results compared to negative results, using different thresholds of positivity for TST. Secondary analyses included an evaluation of the impact of background TB incidence. We also estimated the sensitivity and specificity for predicting TB. We explored heterogeneity through pre-defined sub-group analyses (e.g. country-level TB incidence). Publication bias was assessed using funnel plots and Egger's test. This review is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020205667. Findings: We obtained data from 13 studies out of 40 that were considered eligible (N = 32,034 participants: 36% from countries with TB incidence rate ≥100 per 100,000 population). All reported data on TST and QuantiFERON Gold in-Tube (QFT-GIT). The point estimate for the TST was highest with higher cut-offs for positivity and particularly when stratified by bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine (BCG) status (15 mm if BCG vaccinated and 5 mm if not [TST5/15 mm]) at 2.88 (95% CI 1.69-4.90). The pooled HR for QFT-GIT was higher than for TST at 4.15 (95% CI 1.97-8.75). The difference was large in countries with TB incidence rate <100 per 100,000 population (HR 10.38, 95% CI 4.17-25.87 for QFT-GIT VS. HR 5.36, 95% CI 3.82-7.51 for TST5/15 mm) but much of this difference was driven by a single study (HR 5.13, 95% CI 3.58-7.35 for TST5/15 mm VS. 7.18, 95% CI 4.48-11.51 for QFT-GIT, when excluding the study, in which all 19 TB cases had positive QFT-GIT results). The comparative performance was similar in the higher burden countries (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.23-2.10 for QFT-GIT VS. HR 1.72, 95% CI 0.98-3.01 for TST5/15 mm). The predictive performance of both tests was higher in countries with TB incidence rate <100 per 100,000 population. In the lower TB incidence countries, the specificity of TST (76% for TST5/15 mm) and QFT-GIT (74%) for predicting active TB approached the minimum World Health Organization target (≥75%), but the sensitivity was below the target of ≥75% (63% for TST5/15 mm and 65% for QFT-GIT). The absolute differences in positive and negative predictive values between TST15 mm and QFT-GIT were small (positive predictive values 2.74% VS. 2.46%; negative predictive values 99.42% VS. 99.52% in low-incidence countries). Egger's test did not show evidence of publication bias (0.74 for TST15 mm and p = 0.68 for QFT-GIT). Interpretation: IGRA appears to have higher predictive performance than the TST in low TB incidence countries, but the difference was driven by a single study. Any advantage in clinical performance may be small, given the numerically similar positive and negative predictive values. Both IGRA and TST had lower performance in countries with high TB incidence. Test choice should be contextual and made considering operational and likely clinical impact of test results. Funding: YH, IA, and MXR were supported by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), United Kingdom (RP-PG-0217-20009). MQ was supported by the Medical Research Council [MC_UU_00004/07].

The Kynurenine/Tryptophan Ratio Is a Sensitive Biomarker for the Diagnosis of Pediatric Tuberculosis Among Indian Children.

Objectives: Pediatric tuberculosis (TB) remains difficult to diagnose. The plasma kynurenine to tryptophan ratio (K/T ratio) is a potential biomarker for TB diagnosis and treatment response but has not been assessed in children. Methods: We performed a targeted diagnostic accuracy analysis of four biomarkers: kynurenine abundance, tryptophan abundance, the K/T ratio, and IDO-1 gene expression. Data were obtained from transcriptome and metabolome profiling of children with confirmed tuberculosis and age- and sex-matched uninfected household contacts of pulmonary tuberculosis patients. Each biomarker was assessed as a baseline diagnostic and in response to successful TB treatment. Results: Despite non-significant between-group differences in unbiased analysis, the K/T ratio achieved an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.667 and 81.5% sensitivity for TB diagnosis. Kynurenine, tryptophan, and IDO-1 demonstrated diagnostic AUCs of 0.667, 0.602, and 0.463, respectively. None of these biomarkers demonstrated high AUCs for treatment response. The AUC of the K/T ratio was lower than biomarkers identified in unbiased analysis, but improved sensitivity over existing commercial assays for pediatric TB diagnosis. Conclusions: Plasma kynurenine and the K/T ratio may be useful biomarkers for pediatric TB. Ongoing studies in geographically diverse populations will determine optimal use of these biomarkers worldwide.

Integration of metabolomics and transcriptomics reveals novel biomarkers in the blood for tuberculosis diagnosis in children.

Pediatric tuberculosis (TB) remains a major global health problem. Improved pediatric diagnostics using readily available biosources are urgently needed. We used liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry to analyze plasma metabolite profiles of Indian children with active TB (n = 16) and age- and sex-matched, Mycobacterium tuberculosis-exposed but uninfected household contacts (n = 32). Metabolomic data were integrated with whole blood transcriptomic data for each participant at diagnosis and throughout treatment for drug-susceptible TB. A decision tree algorithm identified 3 metabolites that correctly identified TB status at distinct times during treatment. N-acetylneuraminate achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.66 at diagnosis. Quinolinate achieved an AUC of 0.77 after 1 month of treatment, and pyridoxate achieved an AUC of 0.87 after successful treatment completion. A set of 4 metabolites (gamma-glutamylalanine, gamma-glutamylglycine, glutamine, and pyridoxate) identified treatment response with an AUC of 0.86. Pathway enrichment analyses of these metabolites and corresponding transcriptional data correlated N-acetylneuraminate with immunoregulatory interactions between lymphoid and non-lymphoid cells, and correlated pyridoxate with p53-regulated metabolic genes and mitochondrial translation. Our findings shed new light on metabolic dysregulation in children with TB and pave the way for new diagnostic and treatment response markers in pediatric TB.