Incidence of new-onset diabetes mellitus and association with mortality in childhood solid organ transplant recipients: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Precise estimates of the long-term risk of new-onset diabetes and its impact on mortality among transplanted children are not known. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study comparing children undergoing solid organ (kidney, heart, liver, lung and multiple organ) transplant (n = 1020) between 1991 and 2014 with healthy non-transplanted children (n = 7 134 067) using Ontario health administrative data. Outcomes included incidence of diabetes among transplanted and non-transplanted children, the relative hazard of diabetes among solid organ transplant recipients, overall and at specific intervals posttransplant, and mortality among diabetic transplant recipients. RESULTS: During 56 019 824 person-years of follow-up, the incidence rate of diabetes was 17.8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 15-21] and 2.5 (95% CI 2.5-2.5) per 1000 person-years among transplanted and non-transplanted children, respectively. The transplant cohort had a 9-fold [hazard ratio (HR) 8.9; 95% CI 7.5-10.5] higher hazard of diabetes compared with those not transplanted. Risk was highest within the first year after transplant (HR 20.7; 95% CI 15.9-27.1), and remained elevated even at 5 and 10 years of follow-up. Lung and multiple organ recipients had a 5-fold (HR 5.4; 95% CI 3.0-9.8) higher hazard of developing diabetes compared with kidney transplant recipients. Transplant recipients with diabetes had a three times higher hazard of death compared with those who did not develop diabetes (HR 3.3; 95% CI 2.3-4.8). CONCLUSIONS: The elevated risk of diabetes in transplant recipients persists even after a decade, highlighting the importance of ongoing surveillance. Diabetes after transplantation increases the risk of mortality among childhood transplant recipients.

Socioeconomic status and risk of hemorrhage during warfarin therapy for atrial fibrillation: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Among patients taking warfarin, lower socioeconomic status is associated with poorer control of anticoagulation. However, the extent to which socioeconomic status influences the risk of hemorrhage is unknown. We examined the extent to which socioeconomic status influences the risk of hemorrhage in older individuals newly commencing warfarin therapy for atrial fibrillation. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study of individuals 66 years or older with atrial fibrillation who commenced warfarin therapy between April 1, 1997, and November 30th 2011, in Ontario, Canada. We used neighborhood-level income quintiles as a measure of socioeconomic status. The primary outcome was an emergency department visit or hospitalization for hemorrhage, and the secondary outcome was fatal hemorrhage. RESULTS: We studied 166,742 older patients with atrial fibrillation who commenced warfarin therapy. Of these, 16,371 (9.8%) were hospitalized for hemorrhage during a median follow-up of 369 (interquartile range 102-865) days. After multivariable adjustment using Cox proportional hazards regression, we found that those in the lowest-income quintile faced an increased risk of hospitalization for hemorrhage relative to those in the highest quintile (adjusted hazard ratio 1.18, 95% CI 1.12-1.23). Similarly, the risk of fatal hemorrhage (n = 1,802) was increased in the lowest-income relative to the highest-income quintile (adjusted hazard ratio 1.28, 95% CI 1.11-1.48). CONCLUSIONS: Among older individuals receiving warfarin therapy for atrial fibrillation, lower socioeconomic status is a risk factor for hemorrhage and hemorrhage-related mortality. This factor should be carefully considered when initiating and monitoring warfarin therapy.

Incremental healthcare utilisation and costs among new senior high-cost users in Ontario, Canada: a retrospective matched cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To describe healthcare use and spending before and on becoming a new (incident) senior high-cost user (HCU) compared with senior non-HCUs; to estimate the incremental costs, overall and by service category, attributable to HCU status; and to quantify its monetary impact on the provincial healthcare budget in Ontario, Canada. DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective, population-based comparative cohort study using administrative healthcare records. Incremental healthcare utilisation and costs were determined using the method of recycled predictions allowing adjustment for preincident and incident year values, and covariates. Estimated budget impact was computed as the product of the mean annual total incremental cost and the number of senior HCUs. PARTICIPANTS: Incident senior HCUs were defined as Ontarians aged ≥66 years who were in the top 5% of healthcare cost users during fiscal year 2013 (FY2013) but not during FY2012. The incident HCU cohort was matched with senior non-HCUs in a ratio of 1 HCU:3 non-HCU. RESULTS: Senior HCUs (n=175 847) reached the annual HCU threshold of CAD$10 192 through different combinations of incurred costs. Although HCUs had higher healthcare utilisation and costs at baseline, HCU status was associated with a substantial spike in both, with prolonged hospitalisations playing a major role. Twelve per cent of HCUs reached the HCU expenditure threshold without hospitalisation. Compared with non-HCUs (n=5 27 541), HCUs incurred an additional CAD$25 527 per patient in total healthcare costs; collectively CAD$4.5 billion or 9% of the 2013 Ontario healthcare budget. Inpatient care had the highest incremental costs: CAD$13 427, 53% of the total incremental spending. CONCLUSIONS: Costs attributable to incident senior HCU status accounted for almost 1/10 of the provincial healthcare budget. Prolonged hospitalisations made a major contribution to the total incremental costs. A subgroup of patients that became HCU without hospitalisation requires further investigation.