Identifying predictors of translocation success in rare plant species.

The fundamental goal of a rare plant translocation is to create self-sustaining populations with the evolutionary resilience to persist in the long term. Yet, most plant translocation syntheses focus on a few factors influencing short-term benchmarks of success (e.g., survival and reproduction). Short-term benchmarks can be misleading when trying to infer future growth and viability because the factors that promote establishment may differ from those required for long-term persistence. We assembled a large (n = 275) and broadly representative data set of well-documented and monitored (7.9 years on average) at-risk plant translocations to identify the most important site attributes, management techniques, and species' traits for six life-cycle benchmarks and population metrics of translocation success. We used the random forest algorithm to quantify the relative importance of 29 predictor variables for each metric of success. Drivers of translocation outcomes varied across time frames and success metrics. Management techniques had the greatest relative influence on the attainment of life-cycle benchmarks and short-term population trends, whereas site attributes and species' traits were more important for population persistence and long-term trends. Specifically, large founder sizes increased the potential for reproduction and recruitment into the next generation, whereas declining habitat quality and the outplanting of species with low seed production led to increased extinction risks and a reduction in potential reproductive output in the long-term, respectively. We also detected novel interactions between some of the most important drivers, such as an increased probability of next-generation recruitment in species with greater seed production rates, but only when coupled with large founder sizes. Because most significant barriers to plant translocation success can be overcome by improving techniques or resolving site-level issues through early intervention and management, we suggest that by combining long-term monitoring with adaptive management, translocation programs can enhance the prospects of achieving long-term success.

Identificación de pronosticadores del éxito de reubicación en especies raras de plantas Resumen El objetivo fundamental de la reubicación de plantas raras es la creación de poblaciones autosuficientes con resiliencia evolutiva que persistan a la larga. De todas maneras, la mayoría de las síntesis de estas reubicaciones se enfocan en unos cuantos factores que influyen sobre los parámetros a corto plazo del éxito (supervivencia y reproducción). Los parámetros a corto plazo pueden ser engañosos si se intenta inferir el crecimiento y la viabilidad en el futuro ya que los factores que promueven el establecimiento pueden diferir de aquellos requeridos para la persistencia a largo plazo. Ensamblamos un conjunto grande de datos representativos en general (n = 275) de las reubicaciones de plantas en riesgo bien documentadas y monitoreadas (7.9 años en promedio) para identificar los atributos de sitio más importantes, las técnicas de manejo y los rasgos de las especies para seis parámetros de ciclos de vida y medidas poblacionales del éxito de reubicación. Usamos el algoritmo de bosque aleatorio para cuantificar la importancia relativa de las 29 variables de pronosticadores para cada medida del éxito. Los factores en los resultados de las reubicaciones variaron con los marcos temporales y las medidas de éxito. Las técnicas de manejo tuvieron la mayor influencia relativa sobre la obtención de parámetros de ciclos de vida y tendencias poblacionales a corto plazo, mientras que los atributos de sitio y los rasgos de la especie fueron más importantes para la persistencia poblacional y las tendencias a largo plazo. En específico, las grandes cantidades de fundadores incrementaron el potencial de reproducción y reclutamiento de la siguiente generación, mientras que la declinación de la calidad del hábitat incrementó el riesgo de extinción y el trasplante de especies con baja producción de semillas redujo el rendimiento del potencial reproductivo a la larga. También detectamos interacciones novedosas entre algunos de los factores más importantes, como el aumento en la probabilidad del reclutamiento en la siguiente generación en especies con tasas mayores de producción de semillas, pero sólo cuando se emparejó con grandes cantidades de fundadores. Ya que las barreras más significativas para el éxito de la reubicación de plantas pueden superarse al mejorar las técnicas o resolver los temas a nivel de sitio por medio de un manejo y una intervención temprana, sugerimos que con la combinación del monitoreo a largo plazo con el manejo adaptativo los programas de reubicación pueden aumentar el prospecto de lograr el éxito a largo plazo.

Effects of life history and reproduction on recruitment time lags in reintroductions of rare plants.

Reintroductions are important components of conservation and recovery programs for rare plant species, but their long-term success rates are poorly understood. Previous reviews of plant reintroductions focused on short-term (e.g., ≤3 years) survival and flowering of founder individuals rather than on benchmarks of intergenerational persistence, such as seedling recruitment. However, short-term metrics may obscure outcomes because the unique demographic properties of reintroductions, including small size and unstable stage structure, could create lags in population growth. We used time-to-event analysis on a database of unusually well-monitored and long-term (4-28 years) reintroductions of 27 rare plant species to test whether life-history traits and population characteristics of reintroductions create time-lagged responses in seedling recruitment (i.e., recruitment time lags [RTLs]), an important benchmark of success and indicator of persistence in reintroduced populations. Recruitment time lags were highly variable among reintroductions, ranging from <1 to 17 years after installation. Recruitment patterns matched predictions from life-history theory with short-lived species (fast species) exhibiting consistently shorter and less variable RTLs than long-lived species (slow species). Long RTLs occurred in long-lived herbs, especially in grasslands, whereas short RTLs occurred in short-lived subtropical woody plants and annual herbs. Across plant life histories, as reproductive adult abundance increased, RTLs decreased. Highly variable RTLs were observed in species with multiple reintroduction events, suggesting local processes are just as important as life-history strategy in determining reintroduction outcomes. Time lags in restoration outcomes highlight the need to scale success benchmarks in reintroduction monitoring programs with plant life-history strategies and the unique demographic properties of restored populations. Drawing conclusions on the long-term success of plant reintroduction programs is premature given that demographic processes in species with slow life-histories take decades to unfold.

Efectos de la Historia de Vida y la Reproducción sobre las Demoras en el Tiempo de Reclutamiento en la Reintroducción de Plantas Raras Resumen Las reintroducciones son componentes importantes de los programas de conservación y recuperación de especies raras de plantas, pero las tasas de éxito a largo plazo cuentan con muy poco entendimiento. Las revisiones previas de las reintroducciones de plantas se han enfocado en la supervivencia a corto plazo (p. ej.: ≤ 3 años) y en el florecimiento de individuos fundadores en lugar de enfocarse en puntos de referencia para la persistencia inter-generacional, como el reclutamiento de plántulas. Sin embargo, las medidas a corto plazo pueden ocultar los resultados ya que las propiedades demográficas únicas de las reintroducciones, incluyendo el menor tamaño y la estructura inestable de estadio, podrían crear demoras en el crecimiento poblacional. Usamos un análisis de tiempo-para-evento en una base de datos de reintroducciones inusualmente bien monitoreadas y de largo plazo (4-28 años) de 27 especies raras de plantas para probar si los atributos de la historia de vida y las características poblacionales de la reintroducción crean respuestas con demoras temporales en el reclutamiento de plántulas (es decir, demoras temporales en el reclutamiento), un punto de referencia importante para el éxito y un indicador de la persistencia en poblaciones reintroducidas. Las demoras temporales de reclutamiento (RTLs, en inglés) fueron muy variables entre las reintroducciones, abarcando desde <1 hasta 17 años después de la instalación. Los patrones de reclutamiento se acoplaron a las predicciones de la teoría de historias de vida, donde las especies de vida corta (especies rápidas) exhibieron RTLs consistentemente más cortas y menos variables que las especies de vida larga (especies lentas). Las RTLs largas ocurrieron en hierbas de vida larga, especialmente en los pastizales, mientras que las RTLs cortas ocurrieron en plantas leñosas subtropicales de vida corta y en hierbas anuales. En todas las historias de vida de las plantas, conforme incrementó la abundancia de adultos reproductivos, las RTLs disminuyeron. Se observaron RTLs altamente variables en las especies con eventos de reintroducción múltiples, lo que sugiere que los procesos locales son igual de importantes que la estrategia de historia de vida para determinar los resultados de las reintroducciones. Las demoras temporales en los resultados de restauración resaltan la necesidad de poner a escala los puntos de referencia de éxito en los programas de monitoreo de reintroducciones que tengan estrategias de historia de vida de las plantas y las propiedades demográficas únicas de las poblaciones restauradas. La obtención de conclusiones sobre el éxito a largo plazo de los programas de reintroducción de plantas es algo prematuro ya que los procesos demográficos de especies con historias de vida lentas tardan décadas en desarrollarse.

Geographic coincidence of richness, mass, conservation value, and response to climate of U.S. land birds.

Distributional patterns across the United States of five avian community breeding-season characteristics--community biomass, richness, constituent species' vulnerability to extirpation, percentage of constituent species' global abundance present in the community (conservation index, CI), and the community's position along the ecological gradient underlying species composition (principal curve ordination score, PC--were described, their covariation was analyzed, and projected effects of climate change on the characteristics and their covariation were modeled. Higher values of biomass, richness, and CI were generally preferred from a conservation perspective. However, higher values of these characteristics often did not coincide geographically; thus regions of the United States would differ in their value for conservation depending on which characteristic was chosen for setting conservation priorities. For instance, correlation patterns between characteristics differed among Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Among the five characteristics, community richness and the ecological gradient underlying community composition (PC) had the highest correlations with longitude, with richness declining from east to west across the contiguous United States. The ecological gradient underlying composition exhibited a demarcation near the 100th meridian, separating the contiguous United States grossly into two similar-sized avian ecological provinces. The combined score (CS), a measure of species' threat of decline or extirpation, exhibited the strongest latitudinal pattern, declining from south to north. Over -75% of the lower United States, projected changes in June temperature and precipitation to year 2080 were associated with decreased averaged values of richness, biomass, and CI, implying decreased conservation value for birds. The two ecological provinces demarcated near the 100th meridian diverged from each other, with projected changes in June temperatures and precipitation from the year 2000 to 2080 suggesting increased ecological dissimilarity between the eastern and western halves of the lower United States with changing climate. Anticipated climate-related changes in the five characteristics by 2080 were more weakly correlated with latitude or longitude then the responses themselves, indicating less distinct geographic patterns of characteristic change than in the characteristics themselves. Climate changes projected for 2080 included geographic shifts in avian biomass, CS, and PC values, a moderate overall decline in CI, and general decline in species richness per site.

Heterospecific pollination by an invasive congener threatens the native American bittersweet, Celastrus scandens.

Invasive plants have the potential to interfere with native species' reproductive success through a number of mechanisms, including heterospecific pollination and hybridization. This study investigated reproductive interactions between a native North American woody vine (American bittersweet, Celastrus scandens) and an introduced congener (oriental bittersweet, C. orbiculatus). The decline of C. scandens in the eastern portion of its range is coincident with the introduction and spread of C. orbiculatus, and the two species are known to hybridize. The relationship between proximity and floral production of conspecific and heterospecific males on fertilization and hybridization rates was measured at a field site in northwestern Indiana, USA where both species occur and reproduce. We found that the invasive vine had an extreme advantage in both male and female floral production, producing nearly 200 times more flowers per staminate plant and 65 times more flowers per pistillate plant than the native. Using nuclear microsatellite DNA markers we found that hybridization rates were asymmetric; 39% of the C. scandens seeds tested were hybrids, compared to only 1.6% of C. orbiculatus seeds. The asymmetric hybridization rates were likely not solely due to greater abundance of C. orbiculatus pollen because experimental hand crosses revealed that C. scandens had a higher rate (41%) of heterospecific fertilization than C. orbiculatus (2.4%). We previously reported that few hybrids were observed in the wild, and hybrids had greatly reduced fecundity. Thus, in our system, the threat posed by heterospecific pollen is not replacement by hybrids or introgression, but rather asymmetric reproductive interference. Reproductive interference extended to distances as great as 100 meters, thus, efforts to conserve the native species must reduce its exposure to C. orbiculatus over a relatively large spatial scale.

Floral and nesting resources, habitat structure, and fire influence bee distribution across an open-forest gradient.

Given bees' central effect on vegetation communities, it is important to understand how and why bee distributions vary across ecological gradients. We examined how plant community composition, plant diversity, nesting suitability, canopy cover, land use, and fire history affected bee distribution across an open-forest gradient in northwest Indiana, USA, a gradient similar to the historic Midwest United States landscape mosaic. When considered with the other predictors, plant community composition was not a significant predictor of bee community composition. Bee abundance was negatively related to canopy cover and positively to recent fire frequency, bee richness was positively related to plant richness and abundance of potential nesting resources, and bee community composition was significantly related to plant richness, soil characteristics potentially related to nesting suitability, and canopy cover. Thus, bee abundance was predicted by a different set of environmental characteristics than was bee species richness, and bee community composition was predicted, in large part, by a combination of the significant predictors of bee abundance and richness. Differences in bee community composition along the woody vegetation gradient were correlated with relative abundance of oligolectic, or diet specialist, bees. Because oligoleges were rarer than diet generalists and were associated with open habitats, their populations may be especially affected by degradation of open habitats. More habitat-specialist bees were documented for open and forest/scrub habitats than for savanna/woodland habitats, consistent with bees responding to habitats of intermediate woody vegetation density, such as savannas, as ecotones rather than as distinct habitat types. Similarity of bee community composition, similarity of bee abundance, and similarity of bee richness between sites were not significantly related to proximity of sites to each other. Nestedness analysis indicated that species composition in species-poor sites was not merely a subset of species composition at richer sites. The lack of significant proximity or nestedness effects suggests that factors at a small spatial scale strongly influence bees' use of sites. The findings indicate that patterns of plant diversity, nesting resource availability, recent fire, and habitat shading, present at the scale of a few hundred meters, are key determinants of bee community patterns in the mosaic open-savanna-forest landscape.

Changes in conservation value from grasslands to savannas to forests: How a temperate canopy cover gradient affects butterfly community composition.

Temperate savannas and grasslands are globally threatened. In the Midwest United States of America (USA), for example, oak savannas persist today at a small percentage of recent historic coverage. Therefore, restoration of habitats of low and intermediate canopy cover is a landscape conservation priority that often emphasizes returning tree density to a savanna-like target value. Understanding how animal species react to such changes in vegetation structure is important for assessing the value of these restoration plans. We examined how butterfly community attributes in northwest Indiana USA, including community composition, richness, and abundance responded to a grassland-to-forest gradient of canopy cover. Butterfly community composition under intermediate canopy cover differed significantly from community composition in the most open or closed-canopy habitats. Composition of the plant community in flower was a significant predictor of three assessed attributes of the butterfly community-composition, richness, and abundance. Phenology, expressed as day-of-the-year, was also a strong predictor of these butterfly community attributes. Few butterfly species were habitat specialists as adults although canopy cover was a more important predictor of adult community composition than of richness or abundance of butterflies. Therefore, adult butterfly community differences along the canopy cover gradient were less about butterfly communities filled with habitat specialists for different canopy-defined habitats and more about gradual changes in community composition along this gradient. Overall, butterfly community richness was predicted to peak at about 34% canopy cover, butterfly abundance at about 53% canopy cover, community conservation value at about 59% canopy cover, and a combination of desirable conservation attributes-high diversity, high abundance, and high conservation value-was predicted to reach a peak of co-occurrence at about 67% canopy cover suggesting that habitats of intermediate canopy cover might be particularly effective for butterfly conservation in this region.

The effect of canopy cover and seasonal change on host plant quality for the endangered Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeidesmelissasamuelis).

Larvae of the Karner blue butterfly, Lycaeidesmelissasamuelis, feed solely on wild lupine, Lupinusperennis, from the emergence to summer senescence of the plant. Wild lupine is most abundant in open areas but Karner blue females oviposit more frequently on lupines growing in moderate shade. Can differences in lupine quality between open and shaded areas help explain this disparity in resource use? Furthermore, many lupines are senescent before the second larval brood completes development. How does lupine senescence affect larval growth? We addressed these questions by measuring growth rates of larvae fed lupines of different phenological stages and lupines growing under different shade conditions. The habitat conditions under which lupines grew and plant phenological stage did not generally affect final larval or pupal weight but did significantly affect duration of the larval period. Duration was shortest for larvae fed leaves from flowering lupines and was negatively correlated with leaf nitrogen concentration. Ovipositing in areas of moderate shade should increase␣second-brood larval exposure to flowering lupines. In addition, larval growth was significantly faster on shade-grown lupines that were in seed than on similar sun-grown lupines. These are possible advantages of the higher-than-expected oviposition rate on shade-grown lupines. Given the canopy-related trade-off between lupine␣abundance and quality, maintenance of canopy heterogeneity is an important conservation management goal. Larvae were also fed leaves growing in poor soil conditions and leaves with mildew infection. These and other feeding treatments that we anticipated would inhibit larval growth often did not. In particular, ant-tended larvae exhibited the highest weight gain per amount of lupine eaten and a relatively fast growth rate. This represents an advantage of ant tending to Karner blue larvae.