Ecological Transition and Sustainable Development, A Multivariate Statistical Analysis to Guide the Policies of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan.

The sustainable development goals are a call to action by all upper-middle-income countries and developing countries to promote development while protecting the planet. The United Nations defines sustainable "a development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs". The present work proposes a first mapping of the correspondences between the SDGs and the 6 Missions envisaged by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP). In this paper, the data referred to Mission 2 (Green Revolution and Ecological Transition) will be analyzed at a provincial level in order to evaluate the territorial adequacy of the economic planning through multivariate statistical methodologies (Totally Fuzzy and Relative method and DBScan). Data analysis allows to develop an integrated approach for the evaluation of the government policies of the territory and for monitor the progress of the subsequent intervention policies of the Italian Government.

A dynamic causal modeling of the second outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy.

While the vaccination campaign against COVID-19 is having its positive impact, we retrospectively analyze the causal impact of some decisions made by the Italian government on the second outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Italy, when no vaccine was available. First, we analyze the causal impact of reopenings after the first lockdown in 2020. In addition, we also analyze the impact of reopening schools in September 2020. Our results provide an unprecedented opportunity to evaluate the causal relationship between the relaxation of restrictions and the transmission in the community of a highly contagious respiratory virus that causes severe illness in the absence of prophylactic vaccination programs. We present a purely data-analytic approach based on a Bayesian methodology and discuss possible interpretations of the results obtained and implications for policy makers.

Ecological transition and sustainable development: integrated statistical indicators to support public policies.

The evolution of the concept of sustainability and the availability of new statistical information requires constant checks on the set of indicators so that they accurately perform the task of representing well-being in our society. The Sustainable Development Goals refer to various development domains relating to environmental, social, economic, and institutional issues that have been placed at the basis of the Missions envisaged by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP). Specifically, the subject of ecological transition and the related statistical indicators and the evaluations of the effectiveness of the programming implemented by the NRRP to pursue it in practice are of significant interest. The numerous data available were analyzed at a regional level through multivariate statistical methodologies (Totally Fuzzy and Relative method) capable of synthesizing the various information to evaluate the territorial adequacy of the economic planning of its various components. Through the representation on a GIS basis of the geographical distribution of the synthesis values of the fuzzy indices, the paper highlights the different starting point existing between Italian regions. So, these integrated statistical indicators can help public policies to be oriented in a more coherent way with their environmental declared objectives. Starting from the availability of multiple data, it is developed an integrated approach to the evaluation of the local government policies in place and to monitor the progress of subsequent interventions by the Italian government.