Forestation at the right time with the right species can generate persistent carbon benefits in China.

Previous evaluations on the biophysical potential of forest carbon sink have focused on forestation area distribution and the associated carbon stock for equilibrium-state forests after centuries-long growth. These approaches, however, have limited relevance for climate policies because they ignore the near-term and mid-term decadal carbon uptake dynamics and suitable forest species for forestation. This study developed a forestation roadmap to support China's "carbon neutrality" objective in 2060 by addressing three key questions of forestation: where, with what forest species, and when to afforest. The results yielded a high-confidence potential forestation map for China at a resolution of 1 km with the identified optimal native forest type or species. Our analysis revealed an additional 78 Mha suitable for forestation up to the 2060s, a 43% increase on the current forest area. Selecting forest species for maximal carbon stock in addition to maximizing local environmental suitability enabled almost a doubling in forest carbon sink potential. Progressive forestation of this area can fix a considerable amount of CO2 and compensate for the carbon sink decline in existing forests. Altogether, the entire forest ecosystem can support a persistent biophysical carbon sink potential of 0.4 Pg C y-1 by 2060 and 0.2 Pg C y-1 by 2100, offsetting 7 to 14% of the current national fossil CO2 emissions. Our research provides an example of building a forestation roadmap toward a sustained forest carbon sink, which creates a critical time window for the emission cuts required by the goal of carbon neutrality.

A meta-analysis highlights globally widespread potassium limitation in terrestrial ecosystems.

Potassium (K+ ) is the most abundant inorganic cation in plant cells, playing a critical role in various plant functions. However, the impacts of K on natural terrestrial ecosystems have been less studied compared with nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). Here, we present a global meta-analysis aimed at quantifying the response of aboveground production to K addition. This analysis is based on 144 field K fertilization experiments. We also investigate the influences of climate, soil properties, ecosystem types, and fertilizer regimes on the responses of aboveground production. We find that: K addition significantly increases aboveground production by 12.3% (95% CI: 7.4-17.5%), suggesting a widespread occurrence of K limitation across terrestrial ecosystems; K limitation is more prominent in regions with humid climates, acidic soils, or weathered soils; the effect size of K addition varies among climate zones/regions, and is influenced by multiple factors; and previous N : K and K : P thresholds utilized to detect K limitation in wetlands cannot be applied to other biomes. Our findings emphasize the role of K in limiting terrestrial productivity, which should be integrated into future terrestrial ecosystems models.

Weakened connection between spring leaf-out and autumn senescence in the Northern Hemisphere.

Vegetation autumn phenology is critical in regulating the ecosystem carbon cycle and regional climate. However, the dominant drivers of autumn senescence and their temporal shifts under climate change remain poorly understood. Here, we conducted a multi-factor analysis considering both direct climatic controls and biological carryover effects from start-of-season (SOS) and seasonal peak vegetation activities on the end-of-season (EOS) to fill these knowledge gaps. Combining satellite and ground observations across the northern hemisphere, we found that carryover effects from early-to-peak vegetation activities exerted greater influence on EOS than the direct climatic controls on nearly half of the vegetated land. Unexpectedly, the carryover effects from SOS on EOS have significantly weakened over recent decades, accompanied by strengthened climatic controls. Such results indicate the weakened constraint of leaf longevity on senescence due to prolonged growing season in response to climate change. These findings underscore the important role of biological carryover effects in regulating vegetation autumn senescence under climate change, which should be incorporated into the formulation and enhancement of phenology modules utilized in land surface models.

Slower changes in vegetation phenology than precipitation seasonality in the dry tropics.

The dry tropics occupy ~40% of the tropical land surface and play a dominant role in the trend and interannual variability of the global carbon cycle. Previous studies have reported considerable changes in the dry tropical precipitation seasonality due to climate change, however, the accompanied changes in the length of the vegetation growing season (LGS)-the key period of carbon sequestration-have not been examined. Here, we used long-term satellite observations along with in-situ flux measurements to investigate phenological changes in the dry tropics over the past 40 years. We found that only ~18% of the dry tropics show a significant (p ≤ .1) increasing trend in LGS, while ~13% show a significant decreasing trend. The direction of the LGS change depended not only on the direction of precipitation seasonality change but also on the vegetation water use strategy (i.e. isohydricity) as an adaptation to the long-term average precipitation seasonality (i.e. whether the most of LGS is in the wet season or dry season). Meanwhile, we found that the rate of LGS change was on average ~23% slower than that of precipitation seasonality, caused by a buffering effect from soil moisture. This study uncovers potential mechanisms driving phenological changes in the dry tropics, offering guidance for regional vegetation and carbon cycle studies.

Increased crossing of thermal stress thresholds of vegetation under global warming.

Temperature extremes exert a significant influence on terrestrial ecosystems, but the precise levels at which these extremes trigger adverse shifts in vegetation productivity have remained elusive. In this study, we have derived two critical thresholds, using standard deviations (SDs) of growing-season temperature and satellite-based vegetation productivity as key indicators. Our findings reveal that, on average, vegetation productivity experiences rapid suppression when confronted with temperature anomalies exceeding 1.45 SD above the mean temperature during 2001-2018. Furthermore, at temperatures exceeding 2.98 SD above the mean, we observe the maximum level of suppression, particularly in response to the most extreme high-temperature events. When Earth System Models are driven by a future medium emission scenario, they project that mean temperatures will routinely surpass both of these critical thresholds by approximately the years 2050 and 2070, respectively. However, it is important to note that the timing of these threshold crossings exhibits spatial variation and will appear much earlier in tropical regions. Our finding highlights that restricting global warming to just 1.5°C can increase safe areas for vegetation growth by 13% compared to allowing warming to reach 2°C above preindustrial levels. This mitigation strategy helps avoid exposure to detrimental extreme temperatures that breach these thresholds. Our study underscores the pivotal role of climate mitigation policies in fostering the sustainable development of terrestrial ecosystems in a warming world.

Uppermost global tree elevations are primarily limited by low temperature or insufficient moisture.

The impact of anthropogenic global warming has induced significant upward dispersal of trees to higher elevations at alpine treelines. Assessing vertical deviation from current uppermost tree distributions to potential treeline positions is crucial for understanding ecosystem responses to evolving global climate. However, due to data resolution constraints and research scale limitation, comprehending the global pattern of alpine treeline elevations and driving factors remains challenging. This study constructed a comprehensive quasi-observational dataset of uppermost tree distribution across global mountains using Google Earth imagery. Validating the isotherm of mean growing-season air temperature at 6.6 ± 0.3°C as the global indicator of thermal treeline, we found that around two-thirds of uppermost tree distribution records significantly deviated from it. Drought conditions constitute the primary driver in 51% of cases, followed by mountain elevation effect which indicates surface heat (27%). Our analyses underscore the multifaceted determinants of global patterns of alpine treeline, explaining divergent treeline responses to climate warming. Moisture, along with temperature and disturbance, plays the most fundamental roles in understanding global variation of alpine treeline elevation and forecasting alpine treeline response to ongoing global warming.

Benzenepoly(carboxylic acid)s as Exclusive Intrinsic Markers to Assess Riverine Export of Dissolved Black Carbon.

Landscape fires annually generate large quantities of black carbon. The water-soluble fraction of black carbon (i.e., dissolved black carbon/DBC) is an important constituent of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) pool, playing a crucial role in the global budget of refractory carbon and climate change. A key challenge in constraining the flux and fate of riverine DBC is to develop targeted and accurate quantification methods. Herein, we report that benzenepentacarboxylic acid (B5CA) intrinsically present in DBC can be used as an exclusive and holistic marker (representing both condensed aromatics and less-/nonaromatic fractions) for DBC quantification. B5CA was universally detected in water extractions of biochar and fire-affected soils with relatively large abundance but not produced by nonthermogenic processes. It has good mobility in the environment as it is not readily precipitated by cations or adsorbed by common geosorbents. B5CA also represents the recalcitrant components of DBC with excellent stability against photodegradation and biodegradation. Applying B5CA as the DBC marker in surface waters of the Changjiang River (i.e., the third largest river in the world), we calculate the DBC concentration in the downstream Changjiang River to be 4.8 ± 5.5% of the DOC flux. Our work provides a simple and reliable approach for the accurate quantification and source tracking of DBC in the soil and aquatic carbon pools.

The contributions of individual countries and regions to the global radiative forcing.

Knowing the historical relative contribution of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) to global radiative forcing (RF) at the regional level can help understand how future GHGs emission reductions and associated or independent reductions in SLCFs will affect the ultimate purpose of the Paris Agreement. In this study, we use a compact Earth system model to quantify the global RF and attribute global RF to individual countries and regions. As our evaluation, the United States, the first 15 European Union members, and China are the top three contributors, accounting for 21.9 ± 3.1%, 13.7 ± 1.6%, and 8.6 ± 7.0% of global RF in 2014, respectively. We also find a contrast between developed countries where GHGs dominate the RF and developing countries where SLCFs including aerosols and ozone are more dominant. In developing countries, negative RF caused by aerosols largely masks the positive RF from GHGs. As developing countries take measures to improve the air quality, their negative contributions from aerosols will likely be reduced in the future, which will in turn enhance global warming. This underlines the importance of reducing GHG emissions in parallel to avoid any detrimental consequences from air quality policies.

Climate change increases carbon allocation to leaves in early leaf green-up.

Global greening, characterized by an increase in leaf area index (LAI), implies an increase in foliar carbon (C). Whether this increase in foliar C under climate change is due to higher photosynthesis or to higher allocation of C to leaves remains unknown. Here, we explored the trends in foliar C accumulation and allocation during leaf green-up from 2000 to 2017 using satellite-derived LAI and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) across the Northern Hemisphere. The accumulation of foliar C accelerated in the early green-up period due to both increased photosynthesis and higher foliar C allocation driven by climate change. In the late stage of green-up, however, we detected decreasing trends in foliar C accumulation and foliar C allocation. Such stage-dependent trends in the accumulation and allocation of foliar C are not represented in current terrestrial biosphere models. Our results highlight that a better representation of C allocation should be incorporated into models.

Radiation-constrained boundaries cause nonuniform responses of the carbon uptake phenology to climatic warming in the Northern Hemisphere.

Climatic warming has lengthened the photosynthetically active season in recent decades, thus affecting the functioning and biogeochemistry of ecosystems, the global carbon cycle and climate. Temperature response of carbon uptake phenology varies spatially and temporally, even within species, and daily total intensity of radiation may play a role. We empirically modelled the thresholds of temperature and radiation under which daily carbon uptake is constrained in the temperate and cold regions of the Northern Hemisphere, which include temperate forests, boreal forests, alpine and tundra biomes. The two-dimensionality of the temperature-radiation constraint was reduced to one single variable, θ, which represents the angle in a polar coordinate system for the temperature-radiation observations during the start and end of the growing season. We found that radiation will constrain the trend towards longer growing seasons with future warming but differently during the start and end of season and depending on the biome type and region. We revealed that radiation is a major factor limiting photosynthetic activity that constrains the phenology response to temperature during the end-of-season. In contrast, the start of the carbon uptake is overall highly sensitive to temperature but not constrained by radiation at the hemispheric scale. This study thus revealed that while at the end-of-season the phenology response to warming is constrained at the hemispheric scale, at the start-of-season the advance of spring onset may continue, even if it is at a slower pace.

CO2 fertilization contributed more than half of the observed forest biomass increase in northern extra-tropical land.

The existence of a large-biomass carbon (C) sink in Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical ecosystems (NHee) is well-established, but the relative contribution of different potential drivers remains highly uncertain. Here we isolated the historical role of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) fertilization by integrating estimates from 24 CO2 -enrichment experiments, an ensemble of 10 dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and two observation-based biomass datasets. Application of the emergent constraint technique revealed that DGVMs underestimated the historical response of plant biomass to increasing [CO2 ] in forests ( ß Forest Mod ) but overestimated the response in grasslands ( ß Grass Mod ) since the 1850s. Combining the constrained ß Forest Mod (0.86 ± 0.28 kg C m-2 [100 ppm]-1 ) with observed forest biomass changes derived from inventories and satellites, we identified that CO2 fertilization alone accounted for more than half (54 ± 18% and 64 ± 21%, respectively) of the increase in biomass C storage since the 1990s. Our results indicate that CO2 fertilization dominated the forest biomass C sink over the past decades, and provide an essential step toward better understanding the key role of forests in land-based policies for mitigating climate change.

Anthropogenic activities dominated tropical forest carbon balance in two contrary ways over the Greater Mekong Subregion in the 21st century.

The tropical forest carbon (C) balance threatened by extensive socio-economic development in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) in Asia is a notable data gap and remains contentious. Here we generated a long-term spatially quantified assessment of changes in forests and C stocks from 1999 to 2019 at a spatial resolution of 30 m, based on multiple streams of state-of-the-art high-resolution satellite imagery and in situ observations. Our results show that (i) about 0.54 million square kilometers (21.0% of the region) experienced forest cover transitions with a net increase in forest cover by 4.3% (0.11 million square kilometers, equivalent to 0.31 petagram of C [Pg C] stocks); (ii) forest losses mainly in Cambodia, Thailand, and in the south of Vietnam, were also counteracted by forest gains in China due mainly to afforestation; and (iii) at the national level during the study period an increase in both C stocks and C sequestration (net C gain of 0.087 Pg C) in China from new plantation, offset anthropogenetic emissions (net C loss of 0.074 Pg C) mainly in Cambodia and Thailand from deforestation. Political, social, and economic factors significantly influenced forest cover change and C sequestration in the GMS, positively in China while negatively in other countries, especially in Cambodia and Thailand. These findings have implications on national strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation in other hotspots of tropical forests.

Dryness limits vegetation pace to cope with temperature change in warm regions.

Climate change leads to increasing temperature and more extreme hot and drought events. Ecosystem capability to cope with climate warming depends on vegetation's adjusting pace with temperature change. How environmental stresses impair such a vegetation pace has not been carefully investigated. Here we show that dryness substantially dampens vegetation pace in warm regions to adjust the optimal temperature of gross primary production (GPP) ( T opt GPP ) in response to change in temperature over space and time. T opt GPP spatially converges to an increase of 1.01°C (95% CI: 0.97, 1.05) per 1°C increase in the yearly maximum temperature (Tmax ) across humid or cold sites worldwide (37o S-79o N) but only 0.59°C (95% CI: 0.46, 0.74) per 1°C increase in Tmax across dry and warm sites. T opt GPP temporally changes by 0.81°C (95% CI: 0.75, 0.87) per 1°C interannual variation in Tmax at humid or cold sites and 0.42°C (95% CI: 0.17, 0.66) at dry and warm sites. Regardless of the water limitation, the maximum GPP (GPPmax ) similarly increases by 0.23 g C m-2 day-1 per 1°C increase in T opt GPP in either humid or dry areas. Our results indicate that the future climate warming likely stimulates vegetation productivity more substantially in humid than water-limited regions.

Increasing riverine export of dissolved organic carbon from China.

River transport of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to the ocean is a crucial but poorly quantified regional carbon cycle component. Large uncertainties remaining on the riverine DOC export from China, as well as its trend and drivers of change, have challenged the reconciliation between atmosphere-based and land-based estimates of China's land carbon sink. Here, we harmonized a large database of riverine in-situ measurements and applied a random forest model, to quantify riverine DOC fluxes (FDOC ) and DOC concentrations (CDOC ) in rivers across China. This study proposes the first DOC modeling effort capable of reproducing well the magnitude of riverine CDOC and FDOC , as well as its trends, on a monthly scale and with a much wider spatial distribution over China compared to previous studies that mainly focused on annual-scale estimates and large rivers. Results show that over the period 2001-2015, the average CDOC was 2.25 ± 0.45 mg/L and average FDOC was 4.04 ± 1.02 Tg/year. Simultaneously, we found a significant increase in FDOC (+0.044 Tg/year2 , p = .01), but little change in CDOC (-0.001 mg/L/year, p > .10). Although the trend in CDOC is not significant at the country scale, it is significantly increasing in the Yangtze River Basin and Huaihe River Basin (0.005 and 0.013 mg/L/year, p < .05) while significantly decreasing in the Yellow River Basin and Southwest Rivers Basin (-0.043 and -0.014 mg/L/year, p = .01). Changes in hydrology, play a stronger role than direct impacts of anthropogenic activities in determining the spatio-temporal variability of FDOC and CDOC across China. However, and in contrast with other basins, the significant increase in CDOC in the Yangtze River Basin and Huaihe River Basin is attributable to direct anthropogenic activities. Given the dominance of hydrology in driving FDOC , the increase in FDOC is likely to continue under the projected increase in river discharge over China resulting from a future wetter climate.

Deceleration of China's human water use and its key drivers.

Increased human water use combined with climate change have aggravated water scarcity from the regional to global scales. However, the lack of spatially detailed datasets limits our understanding of the historical water use trend and its key drivers. Here, we present a survey-based reconstruction of China's sectoral water use in 341 prefectures during 1965 to 2013. The data indicate that water use has doubled during the entire study period, yet with a widespread slowdown of the growth rates from 10.66 km3⋅y-2 before 1975 to 6.23 km3⋅y-2 in 1975 to 1992, and further down to 3.59 km3⋅y-2 afterward. These decelerations were attributed to reduced water use intensities of irrigation and industry, which partly offset the increase driven by pronounced socioeconomic development (i.e., economic growth, population growth, and structural transitions) by 55% in 1975 to 1992 and 83% after 1992. Adoptions for highly efficient irrigation and industrial water recycling technologies explained most of the observed reduction of water use intensities across China. These findings challenge conventional views about an acceleration in water use in China and highlight the opposing roles of different drivers for water use projections.

Spatio-temporal changes in the speed of canopy development and senescence in temperate China.

China has been suggested to be the country with the largest vegetation greenness over the last four decades. In this study, we investigated the change in the speed of canopy development and senescence as well as its linkage with climate at monthly scale across temperate China, using satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 1982 to 2015. A significant increase in mean monthly NDVI occurred across all growing-season months except June and November, but this greening trend was mainly contributed by the faster speed of canopy development in April and the slower speed of canopy senescence in October. The average of VNDVI (the difference in NDVI between 2 consecutive months) over temperate China is significantly increased only in April (7.75 × 10-4  year-1 , p < .05) and October (4.98 × 10-4  year-1 , p < .05). In contrast, VNDVI in November is significantly decreased, indicating an increasing trend in the magnitude of leaf fall in the last month of the growing season due to both increase in season maximum greenness and slower canopy senescence in October. We also found clear seasonal differences in the correlations between VNDVI and climatic factors, especially temperature. In April and October, the correlations between VNDVI and temperature were generally positive, while they were negative in June. VNDVI in spring (early growing season) and summer (middle growing season) was also positively correlated with precipitation in semiarid regions. Such seasonally distinct climatic controls on VNDVI should be considered in modelling vegetation responses to climate change. Overall, our findings can help quantify the contribution of different climatic drivers on the shifts in canopy development and senescence and better elucidate the change in vegetation greenness under future climate change.

Tropical tall forests are more sensitive and vulnerable to drought than short forests.

Our limited understanding of the impacts of drought on tropical forests significantly impedes our ability in accurately predicting the impacts of climate change on this biome. Here, we investigated the impact of drought on the dynamics of forest canopies with different heights using time-series records of remotely sensed Ku-band vegetation optical depth (Ku-VOD), a proxy of top-canopy foliar mass and water content, and separated the signal of Ku-VOD changes into drought-induced reductions and subsequent non-drought gains. Both drought-induced reductions and non-drought increases in Ku-VOD varied significantly with canopy height. Taller tropical forests experienced greater relative Ku-VOD reductions during drought and larger non-drought increases than shorter forests, but the net effect of drought was more negative in the taller forests. Meta-analysis of in situ hydraulic traits supports the hypothesis that taller tropical forests are more vulnerable to drought stress due to smaller xylem-transport safety margins. Additionally, Ku-VOD of taller forests showed larger reductions due to increased atmospheric dryness, as assessed by vapor pressure deficit, and showed larger gains in response to enhanced water supply than shorter forests. Including the height-dependent variation of hydraulic transport in ecosystem models will improve the simulated response of tropical forests to drought.

The contribution of China's emissions to global climate forcing.

Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on "common but differentiated responsibilities" reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China's present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China's relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China's strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China's eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.

Optimal temperature of vegetation productivity and its linkage with climate and elevation on the Tibetan Plateau.

Vegetation productivity first increases and then decreases with temperature; and temperature corresponding to the maximum productivity is called optimal temperature (Topt ). In this study, we used satellite derived near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRv ) data to map Topt of vegetation productivity at the spatial resolution of 0.1° on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), one of most sensitive regions in the climate system. The average Topt of non-forest vegetation on the TP is about 14.7°C, significantly lower than the Topt value used in current ecosystem models. A remarkable geographical heterogeneity in Topt is observed over the TP. Higher Topt values generally appear in the north-eastern TP, while the south-western TP has relatively lower Topt (<10°C), in line with the difference of climate conditions and topography across different regions. Spatially, Topt tends to decrease by 0.41°C per 100 m increase in elevation, faster than the elevational elapse rate of growing season temperature, implying a potential CO2 regulation of Topt in addition to temperature acclimation. Topt increases by 0.66°C for each 1°C of rising mean annual temperature as a result of vegetation acclimation to climate change. However, at least at the decadal scale, there is no significant change in Topt between 2000s and 2010s, suggesting that the Topt climate acclimation may not keep up with the warming rate. Finally, future (2091-2100) warming could be close to and even surpass Topt on the TP under different RCP scenarios without considering potential climate acclimation. Our analyses imply that the temperature tipping point when the impact of future warming shifts from positive to negative on the TP is greatly overestimated by current vegetation models. Future research needs to include varying thermal and CO2 acclimation effects on Topt across different time scales in vegetation models.

Data-driven estimates of global litter production imply slower vegetation carbon turnover.

Accurate quantification of vegetation carbon turnover time (τveg ) is critical for reducing uncertainties in terrestrial vegetation response to future climate change. However, in the absence of global information of litter production, τveg could only be estimated based on net primary productivity under the steady-state assumption. Here, we applied a machine-learning approach to derive a global dataset of litter production by linking 2401 field observations and global environmental drivers. Results suggested that the observation-based estimate of global natural ecosystem litter production was 44.3 ± 0.4 Pg C year-1 . By contrast, land-surface models (LSMs) overestimated the global litter production by about 27%. With this new global litter production dataset, we estimated global τveg (mean value 10.3 ± 1.4 years) and its spatial distribution. Compared to our observation-based τveg , modelled τveg tended to underestimate τveg at high latitudes. Our empirically derived gridded datasets of litter production and τveg will help constrain global vegetation models and improve the prediction of global carbon cycle.