A comprehensive analysis of all-cause and cause-specific excess deaths in 30 countries during 2020.

The impact of COVID-19 on mortality from specific causes of death remains poorly understood. This study analysed cause-of-death data provided by the World Health Organization from 2011 to 2019 to estimate excess deaths in 2020 in 30 countries. Over-dispersed Poisson regression models were used to estimate the number of deaths that would have been expected if the pandemic had not occurred, separately for men and women. The models included year and age categories to account for temporal trends and changes in size and age structure of the populations. Excess deaths were calculated by subtracting observed deaths from expected ones. Our analysis revealed significant excess deaths from ischemic heart diseases (IHD) (in 10 countries), cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) (in 10 countries), and diabetes (in 19 countries). The majority of countries experienced excess mortality greater than 10%, including Mexico (+ 38·8% for IHD, + 34·9% for diabetes), Guatemala (+ 30·0% for IHD, + 10·2% for CVD, + 39·7% for diabetes), Cuba (+ 18·8% for diabetes), Brazil (+ 12·9% for diabetes), the USA (+ 15·1% for diabetes), Slovenia (+ 33·8% for diabetes), Poland (+ 30·2% for IHD, + 19·5% for CVD, + 26 1% for diabetes), Estonia (+ 26·9% for CVD, + 34·7% for diabetes), Bulgaria (+ 22·8% for IHD, + 11·4% for diabetes), Spain (+ 19·7% for diabetes), Italy (+ 18·0% for diabetes), Lithuania (+ 17·6% for diabetes), Finland (+ 13·2% for diabetes) and Georgia (+ 10·7% for IHD, + 19·0% for diabetes). In 2020, 22 out of 30 countries had a significant increase in total mortality. Some of this excess was attributed to COVID-19, but a substantial increase was also observed in deaths attributed to cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.

Cancer mortality associated with low education in Italy.

BACKGROUND: This study provides a nationwide representative quantification of the impact of educational inequalities on cancer mortality in Italy. METHODS: The study is based on prevalence data and mortality rate ratios according to levels of education obtained from the Italian 2011 census cohort, including >35 million individuals aged 30-74. We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) and the number of cancer deaths associated with low education (below university degree) in Italy by sex. RESULTS: PAFs for low levels of education were 29.1% among men and 13.3% among women, corresponding to 22,271 cancer deaths associated with low education in men and 7456 in women in 2019. PAFs by cancer site in men were: 53.0% for upper aerodigestive tract (UADT), 44.6% for liver, 41.3% for stomach, 41.3% for lung, 37.0% for bladder, 18.5% for colorectal, 9.8% for prostate and 9.1% for pancreatic cancers. PAFs in women were: 44.5% for cervical, 36.1% for UADT, 34.9% for stomach and 13.9% for colorectal cancers. The cancer sites with the highest number of deaths associated with low education were lung among men (7902/22,271, 35.5%) and colorectum among women (780/7456, 10.5%). CONCLUSIONS: About a quarter of cancer deaths in 2019 in Italy may be prevented by reducing the socioeconomic determinants that contribute to educational disparities in cancer mortality.

Mammographic breast density and survival in women with invasive breast cancer.

PURPOSE: We explored the under-debate association between mammographic breast density (MBD) and survival. METHODS: From the Piedmont Cancer Registry, we identified 693 invasive breast cancer (BC) cases. We analyzed the overall survival in strata of MBD through the Kaplan-Meier method. Using the Cox proportional hazards model, we estimated the hazard ratios (HRs) of death; using the cause-specific hazards regression model, we estimated the HRs of BC-related and other causes of death. Models included term for Breast Imaging-Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) MBD (categorized as BI-RADS 1 and BI-RADS 2-4) and were adjusted for selected patient and tumour characteristics. RESULTS: There were 102 deaths, of which 49 were from BC. After 5 years, the overall survival was 69% in BI-RADS 1 and 88% in BI-RADS 2-4 (p < 0.01). Compared to BI-RADS 2-4, the HRs of death for BI-RADS 1 were 1.65 (95% CI 1.06-2.58) in the crude model and 1.35 (95% CI 0.84-2.16) in the fully adjusted model. Compared to BI-RADS 2-4, the fully adjusted HRs for BI-RADS 1 were 1.52 (95% CI 0.74-3.13) for BC-related death and 1.83 (95% CI 0.84-4.00) for the other causes of death. CONCLUSION: Higher MBD is one of the strongest independent risk factors for BC, but it seems not to have an unfavorable impact on survival.

Evidence on postoperative abdominal binding: A systematic review with meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Midline laparotomy is an unavoidable approach to many surgical procedures. Many surgeons prescript the use of postoperative abdominal binder during the first mobilization after surgery. The use and the cost effective of this device is still debated by many surgeons. METHODS: PubMed, EMBASE and the CENTRAL were systematically searched for randomized controlled trials (RCT) comparing patients who wore abdominal binder ("binder") and patient who did not wear any abdominal binder ("non-binder") up to March 2020. The primary outcomes measured in the comparison were postoperative pain, pulmonary functions, the entity of physical activity, the comfort. A meta-analysis of relevant studies was performed using RevMan 5.3. RESULTS: wearing an abdominal binder after midline laparotomy seems to reduce postoperative pain on first and third postoperative day, to improve the physical activity on third postoperative day, and not affect pulmonary functions. Generally, an elastic abdominal binder is well tolerated during postoperative. CONCLUSIONS: the use of elastic abdominal binder permits a comfortable early postoperative mobilization reducing pain, increases physical activity and seems to not affect pulmonary functions.

The impact of selected risk factors among breast cancer molecular subtypes: a case-only study.

PURPOSE: Breast cancer (BC) risk factors have been differentially associated with BC subtypes, but quantification is still undefined. Therefore, we compared selected risk factors with BC subtypes, using a case-case approach. METHODS: We retrieved 1321 invasive female BCs from the Piedmont Cancer Registry. Through record linkage of clinical records, we obtained data on estrogen (Er) and progesterone (Pr) receptors, Ki67 and HER2+ status, BC family history, breast imaging reporting and data system (BI-RADS) density, reproductive risk factors and education. We defined BC subtypes as follows : luminal A (Er+ and/or Pr+ , HER2- , low Ki67), luminal BH- (Er+ and/or Pr + , HER2- , Ki67 high), luminal BH+ (Er+ and/or Pr + , HER2+), HER2+ (Er - , Pr - , HER2+), ) and triple negative (Er - , Pr - , HER2-). Using a multinomial regression model, we estimated the odds ratios (ORs) for selected BC risk factors considering luminal A as reference. RESULTS: For triple negative, the OR for BC family history was 1.83 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-2.97). Compared to BI-RADS 1, for triple negative, the OR for BI-RADS 2 was 0.56 (95% CI 0.27-1.14) and for BI-RADS 3-4 was 0.37 (95% CI 0.15-0.88); for luminal BH +, the OR for BI-RADS 2 was 2.36 (95% CI 1.08-5.11). For triple negative, the OR for high education was 1.78 (95% CI 1.03-3.07), and for late menarche, the OR was 1.69 (95% CI 1.02-2.81). For luminal BH + , the OR for parous women was 0.56 (95% CI 0.34-0.92). CONCLUSIONS: This study supported BC etiologic heterogeneity across subtypes, particularly for triple negative.

Cancer mortality patterns in selected Northern and Southern African countries.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases have been rapidly increasing in African countries. We provided updated cancer death patterns in selected African countries over the last two decades. METHODS: We extracted official death certifications and population data from the WHO and the United Nations Population Division databases. We computed country- and sex-specific age-standardized mortality rates per 100 000 person-years for all cancers combined and ten major cancer sites for the periods 2005-2007 and 2015-2017. RESULTS: Lung cancer ranked first for male cancer mortality in all selected countries in the last available period (with the highest rates in Réunion 24/100 000), except for South Africa where prostate cancer was the leading cause of death (23/100 000). Prostate cancer ranked second in Morocco and Tunisia and third in Mauritius and Réunion. Among Egyptian men, leukemia ranked second (with a stable rate of 4.2/100 000) and bladder cancer third (3.5/100 000). Among women, the leading cancer-related cause of death was breast cancer in all selected countries (with the highest rates in Mauritius 19.6/100 000 in 2015-2017), except for South Africa where uterus cancer ranked first (17/100 000). In the second rank there were colorectal cancer in Tunisia (2/100 000), Réunion (9/100 000) and Mauritius (8/100 000), and leukemia in Egypt (3.2/100 000). Colorectal and pancreas cancer mortality rates increased, while stomach cancer mortality rates declined. CONCLUSION: Certified cancer mortality rates are low on a global scale. However, mortality rates from selected screening detectable cancers, as well as from infection-related cancers, are comparatively high, calling for improvements in prevention strategies.

Cancer mortality and predictions for 2022 in selected Australasian countries, Russia, and Ukraine with a focus on colorectal cancer.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed at predicting cancer mortality rates for the current year for the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Israel, Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Korea, and Australia, with a focus on colorectal cancer. METHODS: We retrieved official death certification and population data from the WHO and the United Nations Population Division databases. We analyzed mortality for all cancers combined and for 10 major cancer sites from 1970 to 2019, or the latest available year. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardized mortality rates for 2022 using Poisson joinpoint regression models. We estimated the number of averted deaths over the period 1994-2022 because of the decline in mortality rates. RESULTS: Total cancer mortality declined in all countries and both sexes. Russia had the highest total cancer predicted rates for 2022: 156.4/100 000 (world standard) in men and 81.4 in women; the lowest rates were reported in Israeli men (90.6/100 000) and Korean women (44.5/100 000). Between 1994 and 2022, a total of 1 487 000 deaths were estimated to be avoided in Russia, 502 000 in Ukraine, 58 000 in Israel, 102 000 in Hong Kong SAR, 1 020 000 in Japan, 533 000 in the Republic of Korea, and 263 000 in Australia. Colorectal cancer mortality trends were downward for the last decades with favorable predictions for 2022 in both sexes. CONCLUSION: In the countries considered, predicted downward trends started later and were less marked than those in the European Union and the USA. Despite overall favorable predictions, colorectal cancer remains one of the major causes of cancer mortality.

Mortality patterns of soft-tissue sarcomas worldwide up to 2018, with predictions for 2025.

OBJECTIVE: The epidemiological evidence on soft-tissue sarcoma (STS) mortality is inconsistent in geographic and time coverage. This study provides mortality trends for STSs in selected countries worldwide over the last 2 decades, together with predicted figures for 2025. METHODS: We extracted official numbers of certified deaths coded as C47 (i.e. malignant neoplasm of peripheral nerves and autonomic nervous system) and C49 (i.e. malignant neoplasm of other connective and soft tissue) according to the 10th Revision of the International Classification of Disease and population estimates from the WHO and the Pan American Health Organization databases. We computed age-standardized (world standard population) mortality rates (ASMRs). We used joinpoint regression analysis to identify significant changes in trends and to predict death numbers and rates for 2025. RESULTS: The pattern emerging from the number of deaths and ASMRs up to 2018 shows an increase in most countries in both sexes. Around 2015 to 2018, ASMRs differed by 2.5-fold in both sexes with the highest rates being registered in Central-Eastern Europe, North America and Australia, while the lowest ones in Latin America, Japan, and Korea. In 2025, the number of STS deaths is predicted to increase in most countries and both sexes, and unfavourable rates are predicted in Central Europe in both sexes. CONCLUSION: In addition to improvements in STSs registration, unfavourable mortality rates reported in this study reflect inadequate referral of patients with STSs to high-volume multidisciplinary centres, as well as insufficient advancements in STS prevention, diagnosis, and treatments.

Lung cancer mortality in the wake of the changing smoking epidemic: a descriptive study of the global burden in 2020 and 2040.

OBJECTIVES: Lung cancer (LC) is the leading cause of cancer death in 2020, responsible for almost one in five (18.0%) deaths. This paper provides an overview of the descriptive epidemiology of LC based on national mortality estimates for 2020 from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), and in the context of recent tobacco control policies. DESIGN AND SETTING: For this descriptive study, age-standardised mortality rates per 100 000 person-years of LC for 185 countries by sex were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database and stratified by Human Development Index (HDI). LC deaths were projected to 2040 based on demographic changes alongside scenarios of annually increasing, stable or decreasing rates from the baseline year of 2020. RESULTS: LC mortality rates exhibited marked variations by geography and sex. Low HDI countries, many of them within sub-Saharan Africa, tend to have low levels of mortality and an upward trend in LC deaths is predicted for both sexes until 2040 according to demographic projections, irrespective of trends in rates. In very high HDI countries, including Europe, Northern America and Australia/New Zealand, there are broadly decreasing trends in men whereas in women, rates are still increasing or reaching a plateau. CONCLUSION: The current and future burden of LC in a country or region largely depends on the present trajectory of the smoking epidemic in its constituent populations, with distinct gender differences in smoking patterns, both in transitioning and transitioned countries. Further elevations in LC mortality are expected worldwide, raising important social and political questions, especially in low-income and middle-income countries.

New Insights into the Epidemiology of Vulvar Cancer: Systematic Literature Review for an Update of Incidence and Risk Factors.

The aim of this review was an update of vulvar cancer incidence rates and trends and of all known and putative risk factors for the disease. The most recent incidence data were sought from official sources (WHO Cancer Incidence in Five Continents). To obtain an estimate of time trends in some areas, we compared data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents with the few available studies that measured incidence using comparable methods. With respect to risk factors, a systematic PubMed search identified 1585 relevant articles published between 1980 and 2021. Abstracts and full texts were screened. Sixty-nine eligible original cohort and case-control studies were selected. Information was extracted using a PRISMA predesigned form. Nineteen risk factors, or risk factor categories, were investigated by two or more original studies. Solitary, unreplicated studies addressed the putative role of eight more factors. Recent advances have provided further evidence supporting the carcinogenic model centred on human papillomavirus infection with different defects of the immune function. Conversely, the model centred on the role of vulvar lichen sclerosus and the often associated differentiated vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia has continued to be epidemiologically understudied. More research on the association between these two conditions and vulvar cancer is a priority.

The epidemiological landscape of thyroid cancer worldwide: GLOBOCAN estimates for incidence and mortality rates in 2020.

BACKGROUND: Thyroid cancer incidence rates have increased in many countries and settings; however, mortality rates have remained stable at lower rates. This epidemiological pattern has been largely attributed to an overdiagnosis effect. Timely evidence for the global epidemiological status is necessary to identify the magnitude of this problem and the areas mostly affected by it. We therefore aimed to provide an up-to-date assessment on the global distribution of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality rates in 2020. METHODS: We extracted age-standardised incidence and mortality rates per 100 000 person-years of thyroid cancer as defined by the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology 10th Revision (code C73), for 185 countries or territories by sex and 18 age groups (ie, 0-4, 5-9, …, 80-84, and ≥85 years) from the GLOBOCAN database. Both incidence and mortality estimates were presented by country and aggregated across the 20 UN-defined world regions and according to the UN's four-tier Human Development Index (ie, low, medium, high, and very high) in 2020. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2020, the age-standardised incidence rates of thyroid cancer were 10·1 per 100 000 women and 3·1 per 100 000 men, and age-standardised mortality rates were 0·5 per 100 000 women and 0·3 per 100 000 men. In both sexes, incidence rates were five times higher in high and very high Human Development Index countries than in low and medium Human Development Index countries, whereas mortality rates were relatively similar across different settings. Incidence rates in women differed by more than 15 times across world regions, with the highest incidence rates being in the Federated States of Micronesia and French Polynesia (18·5 per 100 000 women), North America (18·4 per 100 000), and east Asia (17·8 per 100 000, with South Korea reaching 45 per 100 000). Mortality rates were less than one per 100 000 in most countries and in both sexes. South Korea had the highest incidence-to-mortality rate ratio in both sexes, followed by Cyprus and Canada. INTERPRETATION: The current thyroid cancer epidemiological landscape is strongly suggestive of a large effect of overdiagnosis in many countries and settings worldwide, confirming the relevance of thyroid cancer overdiagnosis as a global public health problem. FUNDING: None.

Socioeconomic status and risk of lung cancer by histological subtype in the Nordic countries.

BACKGROUND: While the excess in lung cancer risk among lower socioeconomic status individuals has been widely described, the magnitude of this association across lung cancer subtypes, as well as histotype-related long-term incidence trends, are inconclusively reported. AIMS: We explored the variation in the incidence of the three main lung cancer histotypes (i.e. squamous cell carcinoma, small cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma) by socioeconomic status (SES, i.e. upper and lower white collar, upper and lower blue collar, and farming/forestry/fishing) in the adult population of four Nordic countries (i.e. Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark). MATERIALS & METHODS: We have used data from the Nordic Occupational Cancer Study (NOCCA), computing age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 person-years truncated at ages 50-69 years, by sex, histotype, country and SES, for the period 1971-2005. We estimated relative risks and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals through Poisson regression models, including terms for SES, age, sex and country, as indicated. RESULTS: A clear socioeconomic gradient, with a progressive increase in lung cancer risk as SES level decreases, was observed in all subtypes and in both sexes. Favourable lung cancer incidence trends were seen among men for squamous cell and small cell carcinomas, although for adenocarcinomas rates were increasing everywhere except for Finland. Among women, upward temporal trends were seen in all SES groups and for all subtypes, although rates increased to a greater extent for low, compared to high, SES, especially in Denmark and Norway. Farmers showed comparatively lower risks compared to other SES categories. DISCUSSION: This prospective cohort study shows that substantial socioeconomic inequalities in the incidence of the most important lung cancer histotypes exist in the Nordic Countries, and that these inequalities are on the rise, especially among women. CONCLUSION: Smoking habits are likely to largely explain the observed social gradient for lung cancer histotypes in both sexes.

Cigarettes smoking and androgen receptor-positive breast cancer.

OBJECTIVES: Cigarette smoking is related to higher levels of circulating androgens, but its association with androgen receptor (AR) status is still unaddressed. METHODS: We analysed, with a case-only approach, smoking habits according to AR status in 112 cases of invasive female breast cancer, from the Piedmont Cancer Registry. We used a multivariate logistic regression model to estimate the odds ratio (OR) and the corresponding confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: The OR of AR-positive breast cancer (versus AR-negative) for ever smokers (versus never) was 2.85 (95% CI 1.02-7.96). CONCLUSION: Smoking is related to AR-positive breast cancer.

Trends in male breast cancer mortality: a global overview.

OBJECTIVES: Recent trends in male breast cancer have been inadequately studied. We updated mortality trends in selected countries and regions worldwide using most recent available data and we predicted figures for 2020. METHODS: We extracted official death certification data for male breast cancer and population estimates from the WHO and the Pan American Health Organization databases, from 2000 to 2017. We computed age-standardized (world population) death rates for selected countries and regions worldwide. We used joinpoint regression analysis to identify significant changes in trends and to predict death numbers and rates for 2020. RESULTS: In 2015-2017, Central-Eastern Europe had a rate of 2.85/1 000 000, and Russia of 2.22, ranking among the highest. North-Western and Southern Europe, the European Union as a whole and the USA showed rates ranging between 1.5 and 2.0. Lower rates were observed in most Latin American countries, with values below 1.35/1 000 000, in Australia, 1.22, and Japan, 0.58. Between 2000-2004 and 2015-2017, age-adjusted death rates decreased between 10 and 40% in North-Western Europe, Russia, and the USA, and between 1.5 and 25% in the other areas under study, except Latin America (+0.8%). Except for Central-Eastern Europe, predicted rates for 2020 were favourable. CONCLUSION: Advancements in management are likely the main drivers of the favourable trends in male breast cancer death rates over the last decades. Delayed diagnosis and limited access to effective care explain the higher mortality in some areas.

Cancer mortality and predictions for 2020 in selected Australasian countries, Russia and Ukraine.

OBJECTIVES: Predicted cancer mortality figures are useful for public health planning. We predicted cancer mortality rates in Israel, Hong Kong, Japan, the Philippines, Korea, Australia, Russia and Ukraine for the year 2020 using the most recent available data. We focused on breast cancer. METHODS: We obtained cancer death certification and population data from the WHO and the United Nations Population Division databases. We derived figures for 10 major cancer sites and total cancers over 1970-2017. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardized mortality rates for 2020 through joinpoint regression models. We calculated the number of avoided deaths from 1994-2020. RESULTS: Overall, total cancer mortality is predicted to decline. Russia had the highest all cancers rates in 2020, 151.9/100 000 men and 79.6 women; the Philippines had the lowest rate in men, 78.0/100 000, Korea in women, 47.5. Stomach cancer rates declined over the whole period in all countries considered, colorectal cancer since the late 1990s. Trends for pancreas were inconsistent. Predicted rates for lung and breast cancer were favourable; women from Hong Kong, Korea and Australia had lung cancer death rates higher than breast ones. Predicted rates for uterine, ovarian, prostate and bladder cancers and leukaemias were downward for most countries. Between 1994 and 2020, over 3.3 million cancer deaths were avoided in the considered countries, except for the Philippines where no reduction was observed. CONCLUSION: Predicted cancer rates were lower than in the European Union and the USA, even though falls started later and were less marked.

Epidemiological findings on interventional cardiology procedures during the COVID-19 pandemic: A multi-center study.

BACKGROUND: The rates of in-hospital mortality following percutaneous interventional procedures (PIP) during the COVID-19 pandemic period compared to the non-pandemic period has not been reported so far. METHODS: We retrospectively enrolled all consecutive patients admitted for PIP across five centers from February 2020 to May 2020. RESULTS: A total of 4092 PIP were performed during the reference periods. The total number of procedures dropped from 2380 to 1712 (28.0% reduction). Overall in-hospital mortality increased from 1.1% in 2019, to 2.6% in 2020 (63% relative increase). CONCLUSION: During the COVID-19 pandemic, in-hospital all-cause mortality significantly increased in patients admitted for cardiological PIP.

Exploring the link between diabetes and pancreatic cancer.

Introduction: Epidemiological studies indicate an association between type 2 diabetes and pancreatic cancer but the complex and multidirectional relationship between them remains unclear. Areas covered: We summarized epidemiological evidence on diabetes and pancreatic cancer exploring the time-risk relationship. We described mechanisms linking long-standing diabetes to pancreatic cancer. We discussed pancreatic cancer-associated diabetes and its implication in the early detection of pancreatic cancer. Expert opinion: The markedly increased risk of pancreatic cancer in patients with new-onset diabetes compared with long-standing diabetes observed in several epidemiological studies indicates a complex and bidirectional connection, with long-standing diabetes being a predisposing factor for pancreatic cancer (increasing the risk of the malignancy 1.5- to 2-fold) and new-onset diabetes an early manifestation of the tumor. Identifying clinical features and biomarkers to distinguish pancreatic cancer-associated diabetes from type 2 diabetes is an important goal to improve management and survival of this cancer. Imaging (MRI) for middle-age patients with new-onset diabetes may be considered.