Machine learning based lineage tree reconstruction improved with knowledge of higher level relationships between cells and genomic barcodes.

Tracking cells as they divide and progress through differentiation is a fundamental step in understanding many biological processes, such as the development of organisms and progression of diseases. In this study, we investigate a machine learning approach to reconstruct lineage trees in experimental systems based on mutating synthetic genomic barcodes. We refine previously proposed methodology by embedding information of higher level relationships between cells and single-cell barcode values into a feature space. We test performance of the algorithm on shallow trees (up to 100 cells) and deep trees (up to 10 000 cells). Our proposed algorithm can improve tree reconstruction accuracy in comparison to reconstructions based on a maximum parsimony method, but this comes at a higher computational time requirement.

Evaluation of crowdsourced mortality prediction models as a framework for assessing artificial intelligence in medicine.

OBJECTIVE: Applications of machine learning in healthcare are of high interest and have the potential to improve patient care. Yet, the real-world accuracy of these models in clinical practice and on different patient subpopulations remains unclear. To address these important questions, we hosted a community challenge to evaluate methods that predict healthcare outcomes. We focused on the prediction of all-cause mortality as the community challenge question. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using a Model-to-Data framework, 345 registered participants, coalescing into 25 independent teams, spread over 3 continents and 10 countries, generated 25 accurate models all trained on a dataset of over 1.1 million patients and evaluated on patients prospectively collected over a 1-year observation of a large health system. RESULTS: The top performing team achieved a final area under the receiver operator curve of 0.947 (95% CI, 0.942-0.951) and an area under the precision-recall curve of 0.487 (95% CI, 0.458-0.499) on a prospectively collected patient cohort. DISCUSSION: Post hoc analysis after the challenge revealed that models differ in accuracy on subpopulations, delineated by race or gender, even when they are trained on the same data. CONCLUSION: This is the largest community challenge focused on the evaluation of state-of-the-art machine learning methods in a healthcare system performed to date, revealing both opportunities and pitfalls of clinical AI.

Benchmarked approaches for reconstruction of in vitro cell lineages and in silico models of C. elegans and M. musculus developmental trees.

The recent advent of CRISPR and other molecular tools enabled the reconstruction of cell lineages based on induced DNA mutations and promises to solve the ones of more complex organisms. To date, no lineage reconstruction algorithms have been rigorously examined for their performance and robustness across dataset types and number of cells. To benchmark such methods, we decided to organize a DREAM challenge using in vitro experimental intMEMOIR recordings and in silico data for a C. elegans lineage tree of about 1,000 cells and a Mus musculus tree of 10,000 cells. Some of the 22 approaches submitted had excellent performance, but structural features of the trees prevented optimal reconstructions. Using smaller sub-trees as training sets proved to be a good approach for tuning algorithms to reconstruct larger trees. The simulation and reconstruction methods here generated delineate a potential way forward for solving larger cell lineage trees such as in mouse.