Prediction of outcomes for high-count monoclonal B lymphocytosis using an epigenetic and immunogenetic signature.

ABSTRACT: Monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL) progresses to chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) requiring therapy at 1% to 5% per year. Improved prediction of progression would greatly benefit individuals with MBL. Patients with CLL separate into 3 distinct epigenetic subtypes (epitypes) with high prognostic significance, and recently the intermediate epitype has been shown to be enriched for high-risk immunoglobulin lambda variable (IGLV) 3-21 rearrangements, impacting outcomes for these patients. Here, we employed this combined strategy to generate the epigenetic and light chain immunoglobulin (ELCLV3-21) signature to classify 219 individuals with MBL. The ELCLV3-21 high-risk signature distinguished MBL individuals with a high probability of progression (39.9% and 71.1% at 5 and 10 years, respectively). ELCLV3-21 improved the accuracy of predicting time to therapy for individuals with MBL compared with other established prognostic indicators, including the CLL international prognostic index (c-statistic, 0.767 vs 0.668, respectively). Comparing ELCLV3-21 risk groups in MBL vs a cohort of 226 patients with CLL revealed ELCLV3-21 high-risk individuals with MBL had significantly shorter time to therapy (P = .003) and reduced overall survival (P = .03) compared with ELCLV3-21 low-risk individuals with CLL. These results highlight the power of the ELCLV3-21 approach to identify individuals with a higher likelihood of adverse clinical outcome and may provide a more accurate approach to classify individuals with small B-cell clones.

Progression and survival of MBL: a screening study of 10 139 individuals.

Monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL) is a common hematological premalignant condition that is understudied in screening cohorts. MBL can be classified into low-count (LC) and high-count (HC) types based on the size of the B-cell clone. Using the Mayo Clinic Biobank, we screened for MBL and evaluated its association with future hematologic malignancy and overall survival (OS). We had a two-stage study design including discovery and validation cohorts. We screened for MBL using an eight-color flow-cytometry assay. Medical records were abstracted for hematological cancers and death. We used Cox regression to evaluate associations and estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusting for age and sex. We identified 1712 (17%) individuals with MBL (95% LC-MBL), and the median follow-up time for OS was 34.4 months with 621 individuals who died. We did not observe an association with OS among individuals with LC-MBL (P = .78) but did among HC-MBL (hazard ratio, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-3.1; P = .03). Among the discovery cohort with a median of 10.0 years follow-up, 31 individuals developed hematological cancers with two-thirds being lymphoid malignancies. MBL was associated with 3.6-fold risk of hematological cancer compared to controls (95% CI, 1.7-7.7; P < .001) and 7.7-fold increased risk for lymphoid malignancies (95% CI:3.1-19.2; P < .001). LC-MBL was associated with 4.3-fold risk of lymphoid malignancies (95% CI, 1.4-12.7; P = .009); HC-MBL had a 74-fold increased risk (95% CI, 22-246; P < .001). In this large screening cohort, we observed similar survival among individuals with and without LC-MBL, yet individuals with LC-MBL have a fourfold increased risk of lymphoid malignancies. Accumulating evidence indicates that there are clinical consequences to LC-MBL, a condition that affects 8 to 10 million adults in the United States.

Monocyte response to SARS-CoV-2 protein ORF8 is associated with severe COVID-19 infection in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

The open reading frame 8 (ORF8) protein, encoded by the SARS-CoV-2 virus after infection, stimulates monocytes/macrophages to produce pro-inflammatory cytokines. We hypothesized that a positive ex vivo monocyte response to ORF8 protein pre-COVID-19 would be associated with subsequent severe Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We tested ORF8 ex vivo on peripheral blood mononuclear cells from 26 anonymous healthy blood donors and measured intracellular cytokine/ chemokine levels in monocytes by flow cytometry. The percentage of positive monocyte staining in the sample and change in mean fluorescence intensity (ΔMFI) after ORF8 were used to calculate the adjusted MFI for each cytokine. We then tested pre-COVID-19 peripheral blood mononuclear cell samples from 60 chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients who subsequently developed COVID-19 infection. Severe COVID-19 was defined as hospitalization due to COVID-19. In the 26 normal donor samples, the adjusted MFI for interleukin (IL)-1ß, IL-6, IL-8, and CCL-2 were significantly different with ORF8 stimulation versus controls. We next analyzed monocytes from pre-COVID-19 PBMC samples from 60 CLL patients. The adjusted MFI to ORF8 stimulation of monocyte intracellular IL-1ß was associated with severe COVID-19 and a reactive ORF8 monocyte response was defined as an IL-1ß adjusted MFI ≥0.18 (sensitivity 67%, specificity 75%). The median time to hospitalization after infection in CLL patients with a reactive ORF8 response was 12 days versus not reached for patients with a non-reactive ORF8 response with a hazard ratio of 7.7 (95% confidence interval: 2.4-132; P=0.005). These results provide new insight on the monocyte inflammatory response to virus with implications in a broad range of disorders involving monocytes.

The CLL International Prognostic Index predicts outcomes in monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis and Rai 0 CLL.

The utility of the chronic lymphocytic leukemia-international prognostic index (CLL-IPI) in predicting outcomes of individuals with Rai 0 stage CLL and monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL) is unclear. We identified 969 individuals (415 MBL and 554 Rai 0 CLL; median age, 64 years; 65% men) seen at Mayo Clinic between 1 January 2001 and 1 October 2018, and ascertained time to first therapy (TTFT) and overall survival (OS). After a median follow up of 7 years, the risk of disease progression needing therapy was 2.9%/y for MBL (median, not reached) and 5%/y for Rai 0 CLL (median, 10.4 years). Among patients with low, intermediate, and high/very high-risk CLL-IPI risk groups, the estimated 5-year risk of TTFT was 13.5%, 30%, and 58%, respectively, P< .0001 (c-statistic = 0.69); and the estimated 5-year OS was 96.3%, 91.5%, and 76%, respectively, P< .0001 (c-statistic = 0.65). In a multivariable analysis of absolute B-cell count with individual factors of the CLL-IPI, the absolute B-cell count was associated with shorter TTFT (hazard ratio [HR] for each 10 × 109/L increase: 1.31; P< .0001) and shorter OS (HR: 1.1; P = .02). The OS of the entire cohort was similar to that of the age- and sex-matched general population of Minnesota (P = .17), although Rai 0 CLL patients with high and very high-risk CLL-IPI score had significantly shorter OS (P= .01 and P= .0001, respectively). The results of this study demonstrate the ability of CLL-IPI to predict time from diagnosis to first treatment (an end point not affected by therapy) in a large cohort of patients whose only manifestation of disease is a circulating clonal lymphocyte population.

Natural history of monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis among relatives in CLL families.

Chronic lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL) has one of the highest familial risks among cancers. Monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL), the precursor to CLL, has a higher prevalence (13%-18%) in families with 2 or more members with CLL compared with the general population (5%-12%). Although, the rate of progression to CLL for high-count MBLs (clonal B-cell count ≥500/µL) is ∼1% to 5%/y, no low-count MBLs have been reported to progress to date. We report the incidence and natural history of MBL in relatives from CLL families. In 310 CLL families, we screened 1045 relatives for MBL using highly sensitive flow cytometry and prospectively followed 449 of them. MBL incidence was directly age- and sex-adjusted to the 2010 US population. CLL cumulative incidence was estimated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves. At baseline, the prevalence of MBL was 22% (235/1045 relatives). After a median follow-up of 8.1 years among 449 relatives, 12 individuals progressed to CLL with a 5-year cumulative incidence of 1.8%. When considering just the 139 relatives with low-count MBL, the 5-year cumulative incidence increased to 5.7%. Finally, 264 had no MBL at baseline, of whom 60 individuals subsequently developed MBL (2 high-count and 58 low-count MBLs) with an age- and sex-adjusted incidence of 3.5% after a median of 6 years of follow-up. In a screening cohort of relatives from CLL families, we reported progression from normal-count to low-count MBL to high-count MBL to CLL, demonstrating that low-count MBL precedes progression to CLL. We estimated a 1.1% annual rate of progression from low-count MBL, which is in excess of that in the general population.

Impact of type 2 diabetes on mortality, cause of death, and treatment in chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

Age-related comorbid conditions are exceedingly common in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). As the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is predicted to double during the next two decades, a better understanding of the interplay between CLL and T2D is of increasing importance. In this study, analyses were performed in parallel in two separate cohorts, based on Danish national registers and the Mayo Clinic CLL Resource. The primary outcomes were overall survival (OS) from time of CLL diagnosis, OS from time of treatment, and time to first treatment (TTFT), studied using Cox proportional hazard regression analysis and Fine-Gray regression analysis. In the Danish CLL cohort, the prevalence of T2D was 11%, in the Mayo CLL cohort, it was 12%. Patients with CLL and T2D had shorter OS both from time of diagnosis and from first-line treatment for were less likely to receive treatment for CLL compared with patients with CLL and without T2D. The increased mortality was largely driven by an increased risk of death due to infections, especially in the Danish cohort. The findings of this study emphasize a substantial subgroup of CLL patients with co-occurring T2D with an inferior prognosis and a possible unmet treatment need requiring additional interventions and further research.

A rare germline CDKN2A variant (47T>G; p16-L16R) predisposes carriers to pancreatic cancer by reducing cell cycle inhibition.

Germline mutations in CDKN2A, encoding the tumor suppressor p16, are responsible for a large proportion of familial melanoma cases and also increase risk of pancreatic cancer. We identified four families through pancreatic cancer probands that were affected by both cancers. These families bore a germline missense variant of CDKN2A (47T>G), encoding a p16-L16R mutant protein associated with high cancer occurrence. Here, we investigated the biological significance of this variant. When transfected into p16-null pancreatic cancer cells, p16-L16R was expressed at lower levels than wild-type (WT) p16. In addition, p16-L16R was unable to bind CDK4 or CDK6 compared with WT p16, as shown by coimmunoprecipitation assays and also was impaired in its ability to inhibit the cell cycle, as demonstrated by flow cytometry analyses. In silico molecular modeling predicted that the L16R mutation prevents normal protein folding, consistent with the observed reduction in expression/stability and diminished function of this mutant protein. We isolated normal dermal fibroblasts from members of the families expressing WT or L16R proteins to investigate the impact of endogenous p16-L16R mutant protein on cell growth. In culture, p16-L16R fibroblasts grew at a faster rate, and most survived until later passages than p16-WT fibroblasts. Further, western blotting demonstrated that p16 protein was detected at lower levels in p16-L16R than in p16-WT fibroblasts. Together, these results suggest that the presence of a CDKN2A (47T>G) mutant allele contributes to an increased risk of pancreatic cancer as a result of reduced p16 protein levels and diminished p16 tumor suppressor function.

Combined ibrutinib and venetoclax for treatment of patients with ibrutinib-resistant or double-refractory chronic lymphocytic leukaemia.

Patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) disease progression on ibrutinib or after sequential ibrutinib and venetoclax-based treatments (double-refractory) have poor outcomes. In this retrospective study, we analysed outcomes with combined ibrutinib and venetoclax treatment in these groups of patients. The median treatment-free and overall survival for 22 patients with prior progression on ibrutinib (venetoclax-naïve) were 23.7 and 47.1 months respectively. In 11 patients with double-refractory CLL, the median treatment-free and overall survival were 11.2 and 27.0 months respectively. The combination of ibrutinib and venetoclax may help bridge the current gap in options for patients with disease refractory to the most commonly used novel agents.

Pancreatic cancer risk to siblings of probands in bilineal cancer settings.

PURPOSE: Pancreatic cancer (PC) risk is increased in families, but PC risk and risk perception have been understudied when both parents have cancer. METHODS: An unbiased method defining cancer triads (proband with PC and both parents with cancer) in a prospective registry estimated risk of PC to probands' siblings in triad group 1 (no parent with PC), group 2 (1 parent with PC), and group 3 (both parents with PC). We estimated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) using a Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) reference. We also estimated the risk when triad probands carried germline pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants in any of the 6 PC-associated genes (ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, CDKN2A, MLH1, and TP53). PC risk perception/concern was surveyed in siblings and controls. RESULTS: Risk of PC was higher (SIR = 3.5; 95% CI = 2.2-5.2) in 933 at-risk siblings from 297 triads. Risk increased by triad group: 2.8 (95% CI = 1.5-4.5); 4.5 (95% CI = 1.6-9.7); and 21.2 (95% CI = 4.3-62.0). SIR in variant-negative triads was 3.0 (95% CI = 1.6-5.0), whereas SIR in variant-positive triads was 10.0 (95% CI = 3.2-23.4). Siblings' perceived risk/concern of developing PC increased by triad group. CONCLUSION: Sibling risks were 2.8- to 21.2-fold higher than that of the general population. Positive variant status increased the risk in triads. Increasing number of PC cases in a triad was associated with increased concern and perceived PC risk.

International prognostic score for asymptomatic early-stage chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

Most patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) are diagnosed with early-stage disease and managed with active surveillance. The individual course of patients with early-stage CLL is heterogeneous, and their probability of needing treatment is hardly anticipated at diagnosis. We aimed at developing an international prognostic score to predict time to first treatment (TTFT) in patients with CLL with early, asymptomatic disease (International Prognostic Score for Early-stage CLL [IPS-E]). Individual patient data from 11 international cohorts of patients with early-stage CLL (n = 4933) were analyzed to build and validate the prognostic score. Three covariates were consistently and independently correlated with TTFT: unmutated immunoglobulin heavy variable gene (IGHV), absolute lymphocyte count higher than 15 × 109/L, and presence of palpable lymph nodes. The IPS-E was the sum of the covariates (1 point each), and separated low-risk (score 0), intermediate-risk (score 1), and high-risk (score 2-3) patients showing a distinct TTFT. The score accuracy was validated in 9 cohorts staged by the Binet system and 1 cohort staged by the Rai system. The C-index was 0.74 in the training series and 0.70 in the aggregate of validation series. By meta-analysis of the training and validation cohorts, the 5-year cumulative risk for treatment start was 8.4%, 28.4%, and 61.2% among low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk patients, respectively. The IPS-E is a simple and robust prognostic model that predicts the likelihood of treatment requirement in patients with early-stage CLL. The IPS-E can be useful in clinical management and in the design of early intervention clinical trials.

Humoral and cellular immune responses to recombinant herpes zoster vaccine in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia and monoclonal B cell lymphocytosis.

Monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL) and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) are clonal B-cell disorders associated with an increased risk of infections and impaired vaccination responses. We investigated the immunogenicity of recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) in these patients. Individuals with MBL/untreated CLL and Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitor (BTKi)-treated CLL patients were given two doses of RZV separated by 2 months. Responses assessed at 3 and 12 months from the first dose of RZV by an anti-glycoprotein E ELISA antibody assay and by dual-color Interferon-γ and Interleukin-2FLUOROSPOT assays were compared to historic controls matched by age and sex. About 62 patients (37 MBL/untreated CLL and 25 BTKi-treated CLL) were enrolled with a median age of 68 years at vaccination. An antibody response at 3 months was seen in 45% of participants, which was significantly lower compared to historic controls (63%, p = .03). The antibody response did not significantly differ between MBL/untreated CLL and BTKi-treated CLL (51% vs. 36%, respectively, p = .23). The CD4+ T-cell response to vaccination was significantly lower in study participants compared to controls (54% vs. 96%, p < .001), mainly due to lower responses among BTKi-treated patients compared to untreated MBL/CLL (32% vs. 73%, p = .008). Overall, only 29% of participants achieved combined antibody and cellular responses to RZV. Among participants with response assessment at 12 months (n = 47), 24% had antibody titers below the response threshold. Hypogammaglobulinemia and BTKi therapy were associated with reduced T-cell responses in a univariate analysis. Strategies to improve vaccine response to RZV among MBL/CLL patients are needed.

A risk prediction tool for individuals with a family history of breast, ovarian, or pancreatic cancer: BRCAPANCPRO.

INTRODUCTION: Identifying families with an underlying inherited cancer predisposition is a major goal of cancer prevention efforts. Mendelian risk models have been developed to better predict the risk associated with a pathogenic variant of developing breast/ovarian cancer (with BRCAPRO) and the risk of developing pancreatic cancer (PANCPRO). Given that pathogenic variants involving BRCA2 and BRCA1 predispose to all three of these cancers, we developed a joint risk model to capture shared susceptibility. METHODS: We expanded the existing framework for PANCPRO and BRCAPRO to jointly model risk of pancreatic, breast, and ovarian cancer and validated this new model, BRCAPANCPRO on three data sets each reflecting the common target populations. RESULTS: BRCAPANCPRO outperformed the prior BRCAPRO and PANCPRO models and yielded good discrimination for differentiating BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers from non-carriers (AUCs 0.79, 95% CI: 0.73-0.84 and 0.70, 95% CI: 0.60-0.80) in families seen in high-risk clinics and pancreatic cancer family registries, respectively. In addition, BRCAPANCPRO was reasonably well calibrated for predicting future risk of pancreatic cancer (observed-to-expected (O/E) ratio = 0.81 [0.69, 0.94]). DISCUSSION: The BRCAPANCPRO model provides improved risk assessment over our previous risk models, particularly for pedigrees with a co-occurrence of pancreatic cancer and breast and/or ovarian cancer.

Developmental subtypes assessed by DNA methylation-iPLEX forecast the natural history of chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

Alterations in global DNA methylation patterns are a major hallmark of cancer and represent attractive biomarkers for personalized risk stratification. Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) risk stratification studies typically focus on time to first treatment (TTFT), time to progression (TTP) after treatment, and overall survival (OS). Whereas TTFT risk stratification remains similar over time, TTP and OS have changed dramatically with the introduction of targeted therapies, such as the Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitor ibrutinib. We have shown that genome-wide DNA methylation patterns in CLL are strongly associated with phenotypic differentiation and patient outcomes. Here, we developed a novel assay, termed methylation-iPLEX (Me-iPLEX), for high-throughput quantification of targeted panels of single cytosine guanine dinucleotides from multiple independent loci. Me-iPLEX was used to classify CLL samples into 1 of 3 known epigenetic subtypes (epitypes). We examined the impact of epitype in 1286 CLL patients from 4 independent cohorts representing a comprehensive view of CLL disease course and therapies. We found that epitype significantly predicted TTFT and OS among newly diagnosed CLL patients. Additionally, epitype predicted TTP and OS with 2 common CLL therapies: chemoimmunotherapy and ibrutinib. Epitype retained significance after stratifying by biologically related biomarkers, immunoglobulin heavy chain mutational status, and ZAP70 expression, as well as other common prognostic markers. Furthermore, among several biological traits enriched between epitypes, we found highly biased immunogenetic features, including IGLV3-21 usage in the poorly characterized intermediate-programmed CLL epitype. In summary, Me-iPLEX is an elegant method to assess epigenetic signatures, including robust classification of CLL epitypes that independently stratify patient risk at diagnosis and time of treatment.

Atrial fibrillation in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) treated with ibrutinib: risk prediction, management, and clinical outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Ibrutinib therapy is associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). Risk assessment tools and outcomes of AF in these patients are not well described. METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of patients with CLL treated with ibrutinib at Mayo Clinic between October 2012 and November 2018. RESULTS: Two hundred ninety-eight patients were identified with a median time on ibrutinib of 19 months (range 0.23-69.7 months). Fifty-one patients developed treatment-emergent AF; the risk of treatment-emergent AF at 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years was 9%, 12%, and 16%, respectively. The following were associated with an increased risk of treatment-emergent AF on multivariable analyses: past history of AF (hazard ratio [HR] 3.5, p = 0.0072) and heart failure (HR 3.4, p = 0.0028). Most patients are able to continue ibrutinib therapy (dose reduced in 43%). Development of treatment-emergent AF was associated with shorter event-free survival (EFS; HR 2.0, p = 0.02) and shorter overall survival (OS; HR 3.2, p = 0.001), after adjusting for age, prior treatment status, TP53 disruption, heart failure, valvular disease, and past history of AF. CONCLUSIONS: Patient comorbidities, rather than CLL-related factors, predict risk of treatment-emergent AF in patients treated with ibrutinib. Although the vast majority of patients with treatment-emergent AF are able to continue ibrutinib (with dose reduction in 43%), treatment-emergent AF appears to be associated with worse outcomes, independent of other adverse prognostic factors.

Disease Flare During Temporary Interruption of Ibrutinib Therapy in Patients with Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 25% of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) experience a flare of disease following ibrutinib discontinuation. A critical question is whether this phenomenon may also occur when ibrutinib is temporarily held. This study aimed to determine the frequency and characteristics of disease flares in this setting and assess risk factors and clinical outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We identified all patients with CLL seen at Mayo Clinic between October 2012 and March 2019 who received ibrutinib. Temporary interruptions in treatment and associated clinical findings were ascertained. RESULTS: Among the 372 patients identified, 143 (38%) had at least one temporary interruption (median 1 hold, range 1-7 holds) in treatment. The median duration of interruption was 8 days (range 1-59 days) and the most common indication was periprocedural. Among the 143 patients with ≥1 hold, an associated disease flare was seen in 35 (25%) patients: mild (constitutional symptoms only) in 21 patients and severe (constitutional symptoms with exam/radiographic findings or laboratory changes) in 14 patients. Disease flare resolved with resuming ibrutinib in all patients. Predictive factors of disease flare included progressive disease at time of hold and ≥ 24 months of ibrutinib exposure. The occurrence of disease flare with an ibrutinib hold was associated with shorter event-free survival (hazard ratio 2.3; 95% confidence interval 1.3-4.1; p = .007) but not overall survival. CONCLUSION: Temporary interruptions in ibrutinib treatment of patients with CLL are common, and one quarter of patients who held ibrutinib in this study experienced a disease flare. Resolution with resuming ibrutinib underscores the importance of awareness of this phenomenon for optimal management. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: Ibrutinib is a very effective treatment for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) but needs to be taken continuously. Side effects, such as increased bleeding risk with procedures, require temporary interruptions in this continuous treatment. Rapid CLL progression following ibrutinib discontinuation has been increasingly recognized. This study demonstrates that similar flares in disease signs or symptoms may occur during ibrutinib holds as well. Importantly, management with restarting ibrutinib led to quick clinical improvement. Awareness of this phenomenon among clinicians is critical to avoid associated patient morbidity and premature cessation of effective treatment with ibrutinib if the flare is misidentified as true progression of disease.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of Richter transformation: experience of 204 patients from a single center.

The natural history, prognostication and optimal treatment of Richter transformation developed from chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) are not well defined. We report the clinical characteristics and outcomes of a large series of biopsy-confirmed Richter transformation (diffuse large B-cell lymphoma or high grade B-cell lymphoma, n=204) cases diagnosed from 1993 to 2018. After a median follow up of 67.0 months, the median overall survival (OS) was 12.0 months. Patients who received no prior treatment for CLL had significantly better OS (median 46.3 vs. 7.8 months; P<0.001). Patients with elevated lactate dehydrogenase (median 6.2 vs. 39.9 months; P<0.0001) or TP53 disruption (median 8.3 vs. 12.8 months; P=0.046) had worse OS than those without. Immunoglobulin heavy chain variable region gene mutation, cell of origin, Myc/Bcl-2 double expression and MYC/BCL2/BCL6 double-/triple-hit status were not associated with OS. In multivariable Cox regression, elevated lactate dehydrogenase [Hazard ratio (HR) 2.3, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.3-4.1; P=0.01], prior CLL treatment (HR 2.0, 95%CI: 1.2-3.5; P=0.01), and older age (HR 1.03, 95%CI: 1.01-1.05; P=0.01) were associated with worse OS. Twenty-four (12%) patients underwent stem cell transplant (20 autologous and 4 allogeneic), and had a median post-transplant survival of 55.4 months. In conclusion, the overall outcome of Richter transformation is poor. Richter transformation developed in patients with untreated CLL has significantly better survival. Stem cell transplant may benefit select patients.

A laboratory-based scoring system predicts early treatment in Rai 0 chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

We present a laboratory-based prognostic calculator (designated CRO score) to risk stratify treatment-free survival in early stage (Rai 0) chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) developed using a training-validation model in a series of 1,879 cases from Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States. By means of regression analysis, we identified five prognostic variables with weighting as follows: deletion of the short arm of chromosome 17 and unmutated immunoglobulin heavy chain gene status, 2 points; deletion of the long arm of chromosome 11, trisomy of chromosome 12, and white blood cell count >32.0x103/microliter, 1 point. Low-, intermediate- and high-risk categories were established by recursive partitioning in a training cohort of 478 cases, and then validated in four independent cohorts of 144 / 395 / 540 / 322 cases, as well as in the composite validation cohort. Concordance indices were 0.75 in the training cohort and ranged from 0.63 to 0.74 in the four validation cohorts (0.69 in the composite validation cohort). These findings advocate potential application of our novel prognostic calculator to better stratify early-stage CLL, and aid case selection in risk-adapted treatment for early disease. Furthermore, they support immunocytogenetic analysis in Rai 0 CLL being performed at the time of diagnosis to aid prognosis and treatment, particularly in today's chemofree era.

Bayesian copy number detection and association in large-scale studies.

BACKGROUND: Germline copy number variants (CNVs) increase risk for many diseases, yet detection of CNVs and quantifying their contribution to disease risk in large-scale studies is challenging due to biological and technical sources of heterogeneity that vary across the genome within and between samples. METHODS: We developed an approach called CNPBayes to identify latent batch effects in genome-wide association studies involving copy number, to provide probabilistic estimates of integer copy number across the estimated batches, and to fully integrate the copy number uncertainty in the association model for disease. RESULTS: Applying a hidden Markov model (HMM) to identify CNVs in a large multi-site Pancreatic Cancer Case Control study (PanC4) of 7598 participants, we found CNV inference was highly sensitive to technical noise that varied appreciably among participants. Applying CNPBayes to this dataset, we found that the major sources of technical variation were linked to sample processing by the centralized laboratory and not the individual study sites. Modeling the latent batch effects at each CNV region hierarchically, we developed probabilistic estimates of copy number that were directly incorporated in a Bayesian regression model for pancreatic cancer risk. Candidate associations aided by this approach include deletions of 8q24 near regulatory elements of the tumor oncogene MYC and of Tumor Suppressor Candidate 3 (TUSC3). CONCLUSIONS: Laboratory effects may not account for the major sources of technical variation in genome-wide association studies. This study provides a robust Bayesian inferential framework for identifying latent batch effects, estimating copy number, and evaluating the role of copy number in heritable diseases.

Tumor mutational load predicts time to first treatment in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis beyond the CLL international prognostic index.

Next-generation sequencing identified about 60 genes recurrently mutated in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). We examined the additive prognostic value of the total number of recurrently mutated CLL genes (i.e., tumor mutational load [TML]) or the individually mutated genes beyond the CLL international prognostic index (CLL-IPI) in newly diagnosed CLL and high-count monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (HC MBL). We sequenced 59 genes among 557 individuals (112 HC MBL/445 CLL) in a multi-stage design, to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for time-to-first treatment (TTT), adjusted for CLL-IPI and sex. TML was associated with shorter TTT in the discovery and validation cohorts, with a combined estimate of continuous HR = 1.27 (CI:1.17-1.39, P = 2.6 × 10-8 ; c-statistic = 0.76). When stratified by CLL-IPI, the association of TML with TTT was stronger and validated within low/intermediate risk (combined HR = 1.54, CI:1.37-1.72, P = 7.0 × 10-14 ). Overall, 80% of low/intermediate CLL-IPI cases with two or more mutated genes progressed to require therapy within 5 years, compared to 24% among those without mutations. TML was also associated with shorter TTT in the HC MBL cohort (HR = 1.53, CI:1.12-2.07, P = .007; c-statistic = 0.71). TML is a strong prognostic factor for TTT independent of CLL-IPI, especially among low/intermediate CLL-IPI risk, and a better predictor than any single gene. Mutational screening at early stages may improve risk stratification and better predict TTT.

Delineation of clinical and biological factors associated with cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma among patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is significantly higher compared with age- and sex-matched controls. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of factors associated with SCC risk. METHODS: Clinical CLL and SCC data were obtained from Mayo Clinic CLL Resource and self-reported questionnaires among patients with newly diagnosed CLL. We computed the CLL International Prognostic Index (CLL-IPI) from CLL prognostic factors, and a polygenic risk score from SCC susceptibility variants. We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Among 1269 patients with CLL, the median follow-up was 7 years, and SCC subsequently developed in 124 patients. Significant associations with SCC risk were history of skin cancer (HR=4.80; 95% CI: 3.37-6.83), CLL-IPI (HR=1.42; 95% CI: 1.13-1.80), and polygenic risk score (HR=2.58; 95% CI: 1.50-4.43). In a multivariable model, these factors were independent predictors (C statistic = 0.69; 95% CI: 0.62-0.76). T-cell immunosuppressive treatments were also associated with SCC risk (HR=2.29; 95% CI: 1.47-3.55; adjusted for age, sex, and prior SCC). LIMITATIONS: The sample size decreases when combining all risk factors in a single model. CONCLUSION: SCC risk includes history of skin cancer, an aggressive disease at time of CLL diagnosis, receiving T-cell immunosuppressive treatments, and high polygenic risk score. Future studies should develop prediction models that include these factors to improved screening guidelines.