Predicting vaginal birth after cesarean section: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a model to predict vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC) in our population and to compare the accuracy of this model to the accuracy of a previously published widely used model. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Women attempting trial of labor after cesarean delivery (TOLAC) at our institution from January 1, 2000 through May 30, 2010 were evaluated for inclusion. Demographic and clinical data were collected. Associations of these characteristics with VBAC were evaluated with univariate and multivariate logistic regression. We critically compared the accuracy of the resulting model to a previously published widely utilized model for predicting VBAC. RESULTS: A total of 2,635 deliveries with at least 1 prior cesarean delivery were identified. TOLAC was attempted in 599 (22.7%) and resulted in 456 VBACs (76.0%) and 143 repeat cesareans (24.0%). VBAC success was independently associated with age <30 years, a body mass index <30, prior vaginal delivery, prior VBAC, and absence of a recurrent indication for cesarean. This model provided a range of successful probability of VBAC (38-98%) with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.723. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides an accurate and simple model that can be utilized to guide decisions related to TOLAC.

Primary appendiceal mucinous adenocarcinoma in two first-degree relatives: case report and review.

Carcinomas of the appendix are exceedingly rare tumors and have an annual age-adjusted incidence of around 0.4 cases per 100,000. Appendiceal adenocarcinoma accounts for < 0.5% of all gastrointestinal neoplasms and, of these, mucinous adenocarcinomas account for the majority. Published accounts of familial instances of primary appendiceal tumors are strikingly rare. We report two siblings who both developed primary mucinous adenocarcinomas. A genetics evaluation was conducted to determine if there was a recognizable underlying single gene disorder; no DNA mismatch repair defect was evident, and no other diagnosis was apparent. A review of appendiceal cancers seen at Mayo Clinic from l997 to the present was conducted to search for additional familial cases. Among 316 cases of primary appendiceal cancer of any histologic type, this sib pair was the only family reporting a second affected family member. The occurrence of appendiceal cancer in siblings may represent a random occurrence. An exceedingly rare predisposition syndrome cannot be ruled out.