Highly comparative time series analysis of oxygen saturation and heart rate to predict respiratory outcomes in extremely preterm infants.

Objective.Highly comparative time series analysis (HCTSA) is a novel approach involving massive feature extraction using publicly available code from many disciplines. The Prematurity-Related Ventilatory Control (Pre-Vent) observational multicenter prospective study collected bedside monitor data from>700extremely preterm infants to identify physiologic features that predict respiratory outcomes.Approach. We calculated a subset of 33 HCTSA features on>7 M 10 min windows of oxygen saturation (SPO2) and heart rate (HR) from the Pre-Vent cohort to quantify predictive performance. This subset included representatives previously identified using unsupervised clustering on>3500HCTSA algorithms. We hypothesized that the best HCTSA algorithms would compare favorably to optimal PreVent physiologic predictor IH90_DPE (duration per event of intermittent hypoxemia events below 90%).Main Results.The top HCTSA features were from a cluster of algorithms associated with the autocorrelation of SPO2 time series and identified low frequency patterns of desaturation as high risk. These features had comparable performance to and were highly correlated with IH90_DPE but perhaps measure the physiologic status of an infant in a more robust way that warrants further investigation. The top HR HCTSA features were symbolic transformation measures that had previously been identified as strong predictors of neonatal mortality. HR metrics were only important predictors at early days of life which was likely due to the larger proportion of infants whose outcome was death by any cause. A simple HCTSA model using 3 top features outperformed IH90_DPE at day of life 7 (.778 versus .729) but was essentially equivalent at day of life 28 (.849 versus .850).Significance. These results validated the utility of a representative HCTSA approach but also provides additional evidence supporting IH90_DPE as an optimal predictor of respiratory outcomes.

Highly comparative time series analysis of oxygen saturation and heart rate to predict respiratory outcomes in extremely preterm infants.

Objective: Highly comparative time series analysis (HCTSA) is a novel approach involving massive feature extraction using publicly available code from many disciplines. The Prematurity-Related Ventilatory Control (Pre-Vent) observational multicenter prospective study collected bedside monitor data from > 700 extremely preterm infants to identify physiologic features that predict respiratory outcomes. We calculated a subset of 33 HCTSA features on > 7M 10-minute windows of oxygen saturation (SPO2) and heart rate (HR) from the Pre-Vent cohort to quantify predictive performance. This subset included representatives previously identified using unsupervised clustering on > 3500 HCTSA algorithms. Performance of each feature was measured by individual area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) at various days of life and binary respiratory outcomes. These were compared to optimal PreVent physiologic predictor IH90 DPE, the duration per event of intermittent hypoxemia events with threshold of 90%. Main Results: The top HCTSA features were from a cluster of algorithms associated with the autocorrelation of SPO2 time series and identified low frequency patterns of desaturation as high risk. These features had comparable performance to and were highly correlated with IH90_DPE but perhaps measure the physiologic status of an infant in a more robust way that warrants further investigation. The top HR HCTSA features were symbolic transformation measures that had previously been identified as strong predictors of neonatal mortality. HR metrics were only important predictors at early days of life which was likely due to the larger proportion of infants whose outcome was death by any cause. A simple HCTSA model using 3 top features outperformed IH90_DPE at day of life 7 (.778 versus .729) but was essentially equivalent at day of life 28 (.849 versus .850). These results validated the utility of a representative HCTSA approach but also provides additional evidence supporting IH90_DPE as an optimal predictor of respiratory outcomes.

The principles of whole-hospital predictive analytics monitoring for clinical medicine originated in the neonatal ICU.

In 2011, a multicenter group spearheaded at the University of Virginia demonstrated reduced mortality from real-time continuous cardiorespiratory monitoring in the neonatal ICU using what we now call Artificial Intelligence, Big Data, and Machine Learning. The large, randomized heart rate characteristics trial made real, for the first time that we know of, the promise that early detection of illness would allow earlier and more effective intervention and improved patient outcomes. Currently, though, we hear as much of failures as we do of successes in the rapidly growing field of predictive analytics monitoring that has followed. This Perspective aims to describe the principles of how we developed heart rate characteristics monitoring for neonatal sepsis and then applied them throughout adult ICU and hospital medicine. It primarily reflects the work since the 1990s of the University of Virginia group: the theme is that sudden and catastrophic deteriorations can be preceded by subclinical but measurable physiological changes apparent in the continuous cardiorespiratory monitoring and electronic health record.

The critical care data exchange format: a proposed flexible data standard for combining clinical and high-frequency physiologic data in critical care.

Objective.To develop a standardized format for exchanging clinical and physiologic data generated in the intensive care unit. Our goal was to develop a format that would accommodate the data collection pipelines of various sites but would not require dataset-specific schemas or ad-hoc tools for decoding and analysis.Approach.A number of centers had independently developed solutions for storing clinical and physiologic data using Hierarchical Data Format-Version 5 (HDF5), a well-supported standard already in use in multiple other fields. These individual solutions involved design choices that made the data difficult to share despite the underlying common framework. A collaborative process was used to form the basis of a proposed standard that would allow for interoperability and data sharing with common analysis tools.Main Results.We developed the HDF5-based critical care data exchange format which stores multiparametric data in an efficient, self-describing, hierarchical structure and supports real-time streaming and compression. In addition to cardiorespiratory and laboratory data, the format can, in future, accommodate other large datasets such as imaging and genomics. We demonstated the feasibility of a standardized format by converting data from three sites as well as the MIMIC III dataset.Significance.Individual approaches to the storage of multiparametric clinical data are proliferating, representing both a duplication of effort and a missed opportunity for collaboration. Adoption of a standardized format for clinical data exchange will enable the development of a digital biobank, facilitate the external validation of machine learning models and be a powerful tool for sharing multiparametric, high frequency patient level data in multisite clinical trials. Our proposed solution focuses on supporting standardized ontologies such as LOINC allowing easy reading of data regardless of the source and in so doing provides a useful method to integrate large amounts of existing data.

Advancing Continuous Predictive Analytics Monitoring: Moving from Implementation to Clinical Action in a Learning Health System.

In the intensive care unit, clinicians monitor a diverse array of data inputs to detect early signs of impending clinical demise or improvement. Continuous predictive analytics monitoring synthesizes data from a variety of inputs into a risk estimate that clinicians can observe in a streaming environment. For this to be useful, clinicians must engage with the data in a way that makes sense for their clinical workflow in the context of a learning health system (LHS). This article describes the processes needed to evoke clinical action after initiation of continuous predictive analytics monitoring in an LHS.