Immunological Role of IgG Subclasses.

The loss of tolerance to self-antigens is the unequivocal "red line" of autoimmunity: both development of autoreactive T and B cells and production of polyclonal autoantibodies represent seminal keys to the pathogenesis of protean autoimmune diseases. Most of these autoantibodies are immunoglobulins G (IgG), functionally distinguished in four subclasses named IgG1, IgG2, IgG3, and IgG4, due to structural differences in the hinge and heavy chain constant regions. Different studies analyzed serum levels of IgG subclasses in the course of different disorders, showing that they might have a pathogenic role by regulating interactions among immunoglobulins, Fc-gamma receptors, and complement. To date, the mechanisms promoting different IgG subclasses distribution during the natural history of most autoimmune diseases remain somewhat unclear. Evidence from the medical literature shows that the serum IgG profile is peculiar for many autoimmune diseases, suggesting that different subclasses could be specific for the underlying driving autoantigens. A better knowledge of IgG subsets may probably help to elucidate their pathological task, but also to define their relevance for diagnostic purposes, patients' personalized management, and prognosis assessment.

Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound in the Short-Term Evaluation of Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Locoregional Treatment.

BACKGROUND: Contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) with second-generation contrast agents performed 1 month after hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treatment is almost as sensitive as contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) in depicting the residual tumor. However, the efficacy of CEUS performed early after the procedure is still debated. AIM: We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy (DA) of CEUS for the assessment of tumor response shortly after locoregional therapy in patients with unresectable HCC. METHODS: Ninety-four patients with 104 HCC lesions who were scheduled to receive percutaneous ethanol injection, radiofrequency ablation, transcatheter arterial chemoembolization, or combined treatment were enrolled in this study. With CECT at 1-month as the reference standard, the DA of CEUS performed 48-h after the procedure was evaluated. Patients were followed-up to look for tumor or disease progression. RESULTS: Based on CECT findings, 43/104 lesions were diagnosed as having residual viability after 1 month. CEUS performed 48 h after treatment detected residual tumor in 34/43 nodules with treatment failure at CECT with a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of 79.1, 96.7, 94.4, 86.8, and 89%, respectively. There was a high degree of concordance between CEUS and CECT (kappa coefficient = 0.78). A hyperemic halo was detectable in 35 lesions without a statistically significant difference between concordant and discordant cases. In patients with uninodular disease responders according to 48 h CEUS had a significantly longer mean overall survival and time to progression compared to nonresponders. CONCLUSION: CEUS performed 48 h after treatment can be considered a reliable modality for the evaluation of the real extent of necrosis and has prognostic value in the assessment of HCC.

Patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma need a personalized management: A lesson from clinical practice.

The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) advanced stage (BCLC C) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) includes a heterogeneous population, where sorafenib alone is the recommended treatment. In this study, our aim was to assess treatment and overall survival (OS) of BCLC C patients subclassified according to clinical features (performance status [PS], macrovascular invasion [MVI], extrahepatic spread [EHS] or MVI + EHS) determining their allocation to this stage. From the Italian Liver Cancer database, we analyzed 835 consecutive BCLC C patients diagnosed between 2008 and 2014. Patients were subclassified as: PS1 alone (n = 385; 46.1%), PS2 alone (n = 146; 17.5%), MVI (n = 224; 26.8%), EHS (n = 51; 6.1%), and MVI + EHS (n = 29; 3.5%). MVI, EHS, and MVI + EHS patients had larger and multifocal/massive HCCs and higher alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels than PS1 and PS2 patients. Median OS significantly declined from PS1 (38.6 months) to PS2 (22.3 months), EHS (11.2 months), MVI (8.2 months), and MVI + EHS (3.1 months; P < 0.001). Among MVI patients, OS was longer in those with peripheral than with central (portal trunk) MVI (11.2 vs. 7.1 months; P = 0.005). The most frequent treatments were: curative approaches in PS1 (39.7%), supportive therapy in PS2 (41.8%), sorafenib in MVI (39.3%) and EHS (37.3%), and best supportive care in MVI + EHS patients (51.7%). Independent prognostic factors were: Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, Child-Pugh class, ascites, platelet count, albumin, tumor size, MVI, EHS, AFP levels, and treatment type. CONCLUSION: BCLC C stage does not identify patients homogeneous enough to be allocated to a single stage. PS1 alone is not sufficient to include a patient into this stage. The remaining patients should be subclassified according to PS and tumor features, and new patient-tailored therapeutic indications are needed. (Hepatology 2018;67:1784-1796).

Restaging Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Before Additional Treatment Decisions: A Multicenter Cohort Study.

Prognostic assessment of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at the time of diagnosis remains controversial and becomes even more complex at the time of restaging when new variables need to be considered. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the prognostic utility of restaging patients before proceeding with additional therapies for HCC. Two independent Italian prospective databases were used to identify 1,196 (training cohort) and 648 (validation cohort) consecutive patients with HCC treated over the same study period (2008-2015) who had complete restaging before decisions about additional therapies. The performance of the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) prognostic score at restaging was compared with that of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Hong Kong Liver Cancer, and Cancer of the Liver Italian Program systems. A multivariable Cox survival analysis was performed to identify baseline, restaging, or dynamic variables that were able to improve the predictive performance of the prognostic systems. At restaging, 35.3% of patients maintained stable disease; most patients were either down-staged by treatment (27.2%) or had disease progression (37.5%). The ITA.LI.CA scoring system at restaging demonstrated the best prognostic performance in both the training and validation cohorts (c-index 0.707 and 0.722, respectively) among all systems examined. On multivariable analysis, several variables improved the prognostic ability of the ITA.LI.CA score at restaging, including progressive disease after the first treatment, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease at restaging, and choice of nonsurgical treatment as additional therapy. A new ITA.LI.CA restaging model was created that demonstrated high discriminative power in both the training and validation cohorts (c-index 0.753 and 0.745, respectively). CONCLUSION: Although the ITA.LI.CA score demonstrated the best prognostic performance at restaging, other variables should be considered to improve the prognostic assessment of patients at the time of deciding additional therapies for HCC.

Correction: Application of the Intermediate-Stage Subclassification to Patients With Untreated Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

In the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) Group, contributor name Alberta Capelli is misspelled and should be corrected to Alberta Cappelli.

Harmful Effects and Potential Benefits of Anti-Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF)-α on the Liver.

Anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α agents represent an effective treatment for chronic inflammatory diseases. However, some concerns about their potentially undesirable effects on liver function have been reported. On the other hand, evidence of their therapeutic effects on certain liver diseases is accumulating. Many data showed the safety of anti-TNF-α in patients with chronic hepatitis B and C and in liver transplanted patients even if a strict follow-up and prophylaxis are recommended in well-defined subgroups. On the other side, anti-TNF-α-induced liver injury is not a rare event. However, it is often reversible after anti-TNF-α withdrawal. Anti-TNF-α agents have been tested in advanced stages of severe alcoholic hepatitis and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Limited data on the efficacy of anti-TNF-α in patients with autoimmune hepatitis and primary biliary cholangitis are also available. In this review, we explored the hepatic safety concerns in patients receiving anti-TNF-α agents with and without pre-existent hepatic diseases. In addition, the available evidence on their potential benefits in the treatment of specific hepatic diseases is discussed.

Hepatic decompensation is the major driver of death in HCV-infected cirrhotic patients with successfully treated early hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Assessment of long-term outcome is required in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients with cirrhosis, who have been successfully treated for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage A hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, problems arise due to the lack of models accounting for early changes during follow-up. The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of early events (HCC recurrence or hepatic decompensation within 12months of complete radiological response) on 5-year overall survival (OS) in a large cohort of patients with HCV and cirrhosis, successfully treated HCC. METHODS: A total of 328 consecutive Caucasian patients with HCV-related cirrhosis and BCLC stage 0/A HCC who had complete radiological response after curative resection or thermal ablation were prospectively recruited to this study. Primary endpoint of the study was 5-year OS. Independent baseline and time-dependent predictors of 5-year OS were identified by Cox model. RESULTS: The observed 5-year survival rate was 44%. The observed HCC early recurrence and early hepatic decompensation rate were 21% and 10%, respectively. Early hepatic decompensation (Hazard Ratio [HR] 7.52; 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.23-13.48) and HCC early recurrence as time-dependent covariates (HR 2.50; 95%CI: 1.23-5.05), presence of esophageal varices at baseline (HR 1.66; 95% CI: 1.02-2.70) and age (HR 1.04; 95% CI: 1.02-1.07) were significantly associated with the 5-year OS. CONCLUSION: Survival in HCV-infected patients with cirrhosis and successfully treated HCC is influenced by early hepatic decompensation. Our study indirectly suggests that direct-acting antiviral agents could improve OS of HCC patients through long-term preservation of liver function, resulting in a lower cirrhosis-related mortality and a greater change of receiving curative treatments. LAY SUMMARY: Survival in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infected patients with cirrhosis and successfully treated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), is mainly influenced by early hepatic decompensation. HCV eradication after treatment with new direct-acting antiviral agents could improve overall survival of HCC patients through long-term preservation of liver function.

Curative therapies are superior to standard of care (transarterial chemoembolization) for intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer intermediate stage (BCLC-B) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) includes extremely heterogeneous patients in terms of tumour burden and liver function. Transarterial-chemoembolization (TACE) is the first-line treatment for these patients although it may be risky/useless for someone, while others could undergo curative treatments. This study assesses the treatment type performed in a large cohort of BCLC-B patients and its outcome. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of 485 consecutive BCLC-B patients from the ITA.LI.CA database diagnosed with naïve HCC after 1999. Patients were stratified by treatment. RESULTS: 29 patients (6%) were lost to follow-up before receiving treatment. Treatment distribution was: TACE (233, 51.1%), curative treatments (145 patients, 31.8%), sorafenib (18, 3.9%), other (39, 8.5%), best supportive care (BSC) (21, 4.6%). Median survival (95% CI) was 45 months (37.4-52.7) for curative treatments, 30 (24.7-35.3) for TACE, 14 (10.5-17.5) for sorafenib, 14 (5.2-22.7) for other treatments and 10 (6.0-14.2) for BSC (P<.0001). Independent prognosticators were gender and treatment. Curative treatments reduced mortality (HR 0.197, 95%CI: 0.098-0.395) more than TACE (HR 0.408, 95%CI: 0.211-0.789) (P<.0001) as compared with BSC. Propensity score matching confirmed the superiority of curative therapies over TACE. CONCLUSIONS: In everyday practice TACE represents the first-line therapy in an half of patients with naïve BCLC-B HCC since treatment choice is driven not only by liver function and nodule characteristics, but also by contraindications to procedures, comorbidities, age and patient opinion. The treatment type is an independent prognostic factor in BCLC-B patients and curative options offer the best outcome.

The evolutionary scenario of hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy: an update.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma is changing worldwide. This study aimed at evaluating the changing scenario of aetiology, presentation, management and prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy during the last 15 years. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of the ITA.LI.CA (Italian Liver Cancer) database including 5192 hepatocellular carcinoma patients managed in 24 centres from 2000 to 2014. Patients were divided into three groups according to the date of cancer diagnosis (2000-2004, 2005-2009 and 2010-2014). RESULTS: The main results were as follows: (i) progressive patient aging; (ii) progressive expansion of non-viral cases and, namely, of "metabolic" hepatocellular carcinomas; (iii) increasing proportion of hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosed during a correct (semi-annual) surveillance programme; (iv) favourable cancer stage migration; (v) increased use of radiofrequency ablation to the detriment of percutaneous ethanol injection; (vi) improved outcomes of ablative and transarterial treatments; (vii) improved overall survival (adjusted for the lead time in surveyed patients), particularly after 2009, of both viral and non-viral patients presenting with an early- or intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: During the last 15 years several aetiological and clinical features of hepatocellular carcinoma patients have changed, as their management. The observed improvement of overall survival was owing both to the wider use of semi-annual surveillance, expanding the proportion of tumours that qualified for curative treatments, and to the improved outcome of loco-regional treatments.

Can We Predict the Efficacy of Anti-TNF-α Agents?

The use of biologic agents, particularly anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, has revolutionized the treatment of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), modifying their natural history. Several data on the efficacy of these agents in inducing and maintaining clinical remission have been accumulated over the past two decades: their use avoid the need for steroids therapy, promote mucosal healing, reduce hospitalizations and surgeries and therefore dramatically improve the quality of life of IBD patients. However, primary non-response to these agents or loss of response over time mainly due to immunogenicity or treatment-related side-effects are a frequent concern in IBD patients. Thus, the identification of predicting factors of efficacy is crucial to allow clinicians to efficiently use these therapies, avoiding them when they are ineffective and eventually shifting towards alternative biological therapies with the end goal of optimizing the cost-effectiveness ratio. In this review, we aim to identify the predictive factors of short- and long-term benefits of anti-TNF-α therapy in IBD patients. In particular, multiple patient-, disease- and treatment-related factors have been evaluated.

Development and Validation of a New Prognostic System for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic assessment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. Using the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database as a training set, we sought to develop and validate a new prognostic system for patients with HCC. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Prospective collected databases from Italy (training cohort, n = 3,628; internal validation cohort, n = 1,555) and Taiwan (external validation cohort, n = 2,651) were used to develop the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system. We first defined ITA.LI.CA stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, C) using only tumor characteristics (largest tumor diameter, number of nodules, intra- and extrahepatic macroscopic vascular invasion, extrahepatic metastases). A parametric multivariable survival model was then used to calculate the relative prognostic value of ITA.LI.CA tumor stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, Child-Pugh score (CPS), and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in predicting individual survival. Based on the model results, an ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score (from 0 to 13 points) was constructed, and its prognostic power compared with that of other integrated systems (BCLC, HKLC, MESIAH, CLIP, JIS). Median follow-up was 58 mo for Italian patients (interquartile range, 26-106 mo) and 39 mo for Taiwanese patients (interquartile range, 12-61 mo). The ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score showed optimal discrimination and calibration abilities in Italian patients. Observed median survival in the training and internal validation sets was 57 and 61 mo, respectively, in quartile 1 (ITA.LI.CA score ≤ 1), 43 and 38 mo in quartile 2 (ITA.LI.CA score 2-3), 23 and 23 mo in quartile 3 (ITA.LI.CA score 4-5), and 9 and 8 mo in quartile 4 (ITA.LI.CA score > 5). Observed and predicted median survival in the training and internal validation sets largely coincided. Although observed and predicted survival estimations were significantly lower (log-rank test, p < 0.001) in Italian than in Taiwanese patients, the ITA.LI.CA score maintained very high discrimination and calibration features also in the external validation cohort. The concordance index (C index) of the ITA.LI.CA score in the internal and external validation cohorts was 0.71 and 0.78, respectively. The ITA.LI.CA score's prognostic ability was significantly better (p < 0.001) than that of BCLC stage (respective C indexes of 0.64 and 0.73), CLIP score (0.68 and 0.75), JIS stage (0.67 and 0.70), MESIAH score (0.69 and 0.77), and HKLC stage (0.68 and 0.75). The main limitations of this study are its retrospective nature and the intrinsically significant differences between the Taiwanese and Italian groups. CONCLUSIONS: The ITA.LI.CA prognostic system includes both a tumor staging-stratifying patients with HCC into six main stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, and C)-and a prognostic score-integrating ITA.LI.CA tumor staging, CPS, ECOG performance status, and AFP. The ITA.LI.CA prognostic system shows a strong ability to predict individual survival in European and Asian populations.

Application of the Intermediate-Stage Subclassification to Patients With Untreated Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

OBJECTIVES: The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) intermediate stage (BCLC B) includes a heterogeneous population of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Recently, in order to facilitate treatment decisions, a panel of experts proposed to subclassify BCLC B patients. In this study, we aimed to assess the prognostic capability of the BCLC B stage reclassification in a large cohort of patients with untreated HCC managed by the Italian Liver Cancer Group. METHODS: We assessed the prognosis of 269 untreated HCC patients observed in the period 1987-2012 who were reclassified according to the proposed subclassification of the BCLC B stage from stage B1 to stage B4. We evaluated and compared the survival of the various substages. RESULTS: Median survival progressively decreased from stage B1 (n=65, 24.2%: 25 months) through stages B2 (n=105, 39.0%: 16 months) and B3 (n=22, 8.2%: 9 months), to stage B4 (n=77, 28.6%: 5 months; P<0.0001). Moreover, we observed a significantly different survival between contiguous stages (B1 vs. B2, P=0.0002; B2 vs. B3, P<0.0001; B3 vs. B4, P=0.0219). In multivariate analysis, the BCLC B subclassification (P<0.0001), MELD score (P=0.0013), and platelet count (P=0.0252) were independent predictors of survival. CONCLUSIONS: The subclassification of the intermediate-stage HCC predicts the prognosis of patients with untreated HCC. The prognostic figures identified in this study may be used as a benchmark to assess the efficacy of therapeutic intervention in the various BCLC B substages, whereas it remains to be established whether incorporation of the MELD score might improve the prognosis of treated patients.

Prognosis of untreated hepatocellular carcinoma.

UNLABELLED: The prognosis of untreated patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is heterogeneous, and survival data were mainly obtained from control arms of randomized studies. Clinical practice data on this topic are urgently needed, so as to help plan studies and counsel patients. We assessed the prognosis of 600 untreated patients with HCC managed by the Italian Liver Cancer Group. Prognosis was evaluated by subdividing patients according to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) classification. We also assessed the main demographic, clinical, and oncological determinants of survival in the subgroup of patients with advanced HCC (BCLC C). Advanced (BCLC C: n = 138; 23.0%) and end-stage HCC (BCLC D; n = 210; 35.0%) represented the majority of patients. Overall median survival was 9 months, and the principal cause of death was tumor progression (n = 279; 46.5%). Patients' median survival progressively and significantly decreased as BCLC stage worsened (BCLC 0: 38 months; BCLC A: 25 months; BCLC B: 10 months; BCLC C: 7 months; BCLC D: 6 months; P < 0.0001). Female gender (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.55; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.33-0.90; P = 0.018), ascites (HR = 1.81; 95% CI = 1.21-2.71; P = 0.004), and multinodular (>3) HCC (HR = 1.79; 95% CI = 1.21-2.63; P = 0.003) were independent predictors of survival in patients with advanced HCC (BCLC C). CONCLUSION: BCLC adequately predicts the prognosis of untreated HCC patients. In untreated patients with advanced HCC, female gender, clinical decompensation of cirrhosis, and multinodular tumor are independent prognostic predictors and should be taken into account for patient stratification in future therapeutic studies.

Survival benefit of liver resection for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma across different Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stages: a multicentre study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The role of hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in different Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages is controversial. We aimed at measuring the survival benefit of resection vs. non-surgical-therapies in each BCLC stage. METHODS: Using the ITA.LI.CA database, we identified 2090 BCLC A, B, and C HCC patients observed between 2000 and 2012: 550 underwent resection, 1046 loco-regional therapy (LRT), and 494 best supportive care (BSC). A multivariate log-logistic model was chosen to predict median survival (MS) after resection vs. MS after LRT or BSC. The results were expressed as net survival benefit of resection: (MS resection-MS LRT)/MS BSC. RESULTS: After stratifying for BCLC stage, the median net survival benefit of resection over LRT was: BCLC 0=62% (40%, 82%), A=45% (13%, 65%), B=46% (9%, 76%), C=-16% (-55%, 33%). Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score>9, Child B class, and performance status (PST)=2 were the main risk factors for liver resection. 1181 Child A patients (57%) with MELD⩽9 and PST<2 had always a large positive net survival benefit of resection over LRT, independently of BCLC stage: BCLC 0=64% (44%, 85%), A=59% (45%, 74%), B=71% (52%, 90%), C=56% (36%, 78%). Among the 909 (43%) patients with at least one risk factor (MELD>9 or PST=2 or Child B class), resection did not prove any survival benefit over LRT. CONCLUSIONS: Resection could result in survival benefit over LRT for HCC patients regardless of their BCLC stage, provided that liver dysfunction (Child B or MELD>9) and PST>1 are absent.

Utility-based criteria for selecting patients with hepatocellular carcinoma for liver transplantation: A multicenter cohort study using the alpha-fetoprotein model as a survival predictor.

The lifetime utility of liver transplantation (LT) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still controversial. The aim of this study was to ascertain when LT is cost-effective for HCC patients, with a view to proposing new transplant selection criteria. The study involved a real cohort of potentially transplantable Italian HCC patients (n = 2419 selected from the Italian Liver Cancer group database) who received nontransplant therapies. A non-LT survival analysis was conducted, the direct costs of therapies were calculated, and a Markov model was used to compute the cost utility of LT over non-LT therapies in Italian and US cost scenarios. Post-LT survival was calculated using the alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) model on the basis of AFP values and radiological size and number of nodules. The primary endpoint was the net health benefit (NHB), defined as LT survival benefit in quality-adjusted life years minus incremental costs (US $)/willingness to pay. The calculated median cost of non-LT therapies per patient was US $53,042 in Italy and US $62,827 in the United States. On Monte Carlo simulation, the NHB of LT was always positive for AFP model values ≤ 3 and always negative for values > 7 in both countries. A multivariate model showed that nontumor variables (patient's age, Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP] class, and alternative therapies) had the potential to shift the AFP model threshold of LT cost-ineffectiveness from 3 to 7. LT proved always cost-effective for HCC patients with AFP model values ≤ 3, whereas the cost-ineffectiveness threshold ranged between 3 and 7 using nontumor variables.

Determinants of alpha-fetoprotein levels in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: implications for its clinical use.

BACKGROUND: α-Fetoprotein (AFP) is a biomarker commonly used in the management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), although the possible determinants of its serum levels in these patients have not been adequately explored. For this study, the authors evaluated the relevance of demographic, clinical, and oncologic factors to the presence of elevated AFP levels in large cohort of patients with HCC. METHODS: In 4123 patients with HCC who were managed by the Italian Liver Cancer Group, AFP levels were assessed along with their association with demographic, biochemical, clinical, and oncologic characteristics. Patients were subdivided according to the presence of elevated AFP (ie, >10 ng/mL). RESULTS: AFP levels were elevated in 62.4% of patients with HCC. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that being a woman (odds ratio [OR], 1.497; 95% confidence interval [95%CI], 1.250-1.793; P < .0001), the presence of cirrhosis (OR, 1.538; 95% CI, 1.050-2.254; P = .027), liver disease with viral etiology (OR, 1.900; 95% CI, 1.589-2.272; P < .0001), an elevated alanine aminotransferase level (OR, 1.878; 95% CI, 1.602-2.202; P < .0001), a low albumin level (OR, 1.301; 95% CI, 1.110-1.525; P = .012), an HCC tumor size >2 cm (OR, 1.346; 95% CI, 1.135-2.596; P = .001), multinodular HCC (OR, 1.641; 95% CI, 1.403-1.920; P < .0001), and the presence of vascular invasion (OR, 1.774; 95% CI, 1.361-2.311; P < .0001) were associated independently with elevated levels of AFP. Both the median AFP level and the proportion of patients who had elevated levels increased with decreasing degrees of HCC differentiation (P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: Sex and features of chronic liver disease were identified as nontumor characteristics that influence serum AFP levels in patients with HCC. These findings should be taken into account as limitations in interpreting the oncologic meaning of this biomarker in clinical practice.

Estimation of lead-time bias and its impact on the outcome of surveillance for the early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Lead-time is the time by which diagnosis is anticipated by screening/surveillance with respect to the symptomatic detection of a disease. Any screening program, including surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), is subject to lead-time bias. Data regarding lead-time for HCC are lacking. Aims of the present study were to calculate lead-time and to assess its impact on the benefit obtainable from the surveillance of cirrhotic patients. METHODS: One-thousand three-hundred and eighty Child-Pugh class A/B patients from the ITA.LI.CA database, in whom HCC was detected during semiannual surveillance (n = 850), annual surveillance (n = 234) or when patients came when symptomatic (n = 296), were selected. Lead-time was estimated by means of appropriate formulas and Monte Carlo simulation, including 1000 patients for each arm. RESULTS: The 5-year overall survival after HCC diagnosis was 32.7% in semiannually surveilled patients, 25.2% in annually surveilled patients, and 12.2% in symptomatic patients (p<0.001). In a 10-year follow-up perspective, the median lead-time calculated for all surveilled patients was 6.5 months (7.2 for semiannual and 4.1 for annual surveillance). Lead-time bias accounted for most of the surveillance benefit until the third year of follow-up after HCC diagnosis. However, even after lead-time adjustment, semiannual surveillance maintained a survival benefit over symptomatic diagnosis (number of patients needed to screen = 13), as did annual surveillance (18 patients). CONCLUSIONS: Lead-time bias is the main determinant of the short-term benefit provided by surveillance for HCC, but this benefit becomes factual in a long-term perspective, confirming the clinical utility of an anticipated diagnosis of HCC.

Early prediction of response to sorafenib in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: the role of dynamic contrast enhanced ultrasound.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Sorafenib has become the standard first-line treatment for patients with advanced HCC and acts by inducing alterations in tumor vascularity. We wanted to evaluate the feasibility of dynamic CEUS (D-CEUS) as a predictor of early tumor response to sorafenib and to correlate functional parameters with clinical efficacy end points. METHODS: Twenty-eight HCC patients treated with sorafenib 400mg bid were prospectively enrolled. CEUS was performed at baseline (T0) and after 15 (T1) and 30 (T2) days of treatment. Tumor vasculature was assessed in a specific harmonic mode associated with a perfusion and quantification software (Q-Lab, Philips). Variations between T1/T2 and T0 were calculated for five D-CEUS functional parameters (peak intensity, PI; time to PI, TP; area under the curve, AUC; slope of wash in, Pw; mean transit time, MTT) and were compared for responders and non-responders. The correlation between D-CEUS parameters, overall survival (OS), and progression-free survival (PFS) was also assessed. A p value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: The percentage variation at T1 significantly correlated with response in three D-CEUS parameters (AUC, PI and Pw; p=0.002, <0.001, and 0.003, respectively). A decrease of AUC (p=0.045) and an increased/unchanged value of TP (p=0.029) and MTT (p=0.010) were associated with longer survival. Three D-CEUS parameters (AUC, TP, Pw) were significantly associated with PFS. CONCLUSIONS: D-CEUS provides a reliable and early measure of efficacy for anti-angiogenic therapies and could be an excellent tool for selecting patients who will benefit from treatment.

Anti-TNF-alpha therapies do not increase early postoperative complications in patients with inflammatory bowel disease. An Italian single-center experience.

PURPOSE: The impact of preoperative use of TNF-alpha inhibitors on postoperative complications in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) undergoing abdominal surgery is controversial. The aim of this study was to evaluate the 30-day postoperative outcomes for IBD patients treated with these drugs prior to surgery. METHODS: We analyzed retrospectively the incidence of short-term postoperative complications. Statistical analyses were performed to reveal the independent variables that influenced postoperative complications and the role of preoperative medical therapy with anti-TNF drugs within 12 weeks prior to surgery. RESULTS: One hundred fourteen patients (76 with Crohn's disease (CD) and 38 ulcerative colitis (UC)) underwent abdominal surgery for IBD. Fifty-four patients were treated with anti-TNF-alpha within 12 weeks prior to surgery (anti-TNF group). Postoperative mortality and morbidity were 0% and 21%, respectively. The infection rate was 15%. A significantly higher incidence of postoperative complications was found in patients treated with high-dose steroids (58% vs. 17%; p = 0.003) after univariate analysis. The infection rate was significantly higher in patients treated with high-dose corticosteroids (50% vs. 11%; p = 0.002) and concomitant anti-TNF-alpha (60% vs. 13%; p = 0.023). Multivariate analysis revealed that only therapy with high-dose corticosteroids was significantly associated with cumulative (p = 0.017) and infective postoperative complications (p = 0.046). No significant differences were found between the anti-TNF group and the control group. CONCLUSION: High-dose corticosteroids increased the risk of short-term postoperative cumulative and infective complications. Anti-TNF drugs within 12 weeks prior to abdominal surgery in patients with IBD did not appear to increase the rate of postoperative complications.