Policy, practice, and prediction: model-based approaches to evaluating N. gonorrhoeae antibiotic susceptibility test uptake in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) represents a significant threat to global health with Neisseria gonorrhoea emerging as a key pathogen of concern. In Australia, the Australian Gonococcal Surveillance Program (AGSP) plays a critical role in monitoring resistance patterns. However, antibiotic susceptibility test (AST) uptake - a crucial component for effective resistance surveillance - remains to be a limiting factor. The study aims to model the processes involved in generating AST tests for N. gonorrhoea isolates within the Australian healthcare system and assess the potential impact of systematic and policy-level changes. METHODS: Two models were developed. The first model was a mathematical stochastic health systems model (SHSM) and a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) to simulate the clinician-patient dynamics influencing AST initiation. Key variables were identified through systematic literature review to inform the construction of both models. Scenario analyses were conducted with the modification of model parameters. RESULTS: The SHSM and BBN highlighted clinician education and the use of clinical support tools as effective strategies to improve AST. Scenario analysis further identified adherence to guidelines and changes in patient-level factors, such as persistence of symptoms and high-risk behaviours, as significant determinants. Both models supported the notion of mandated testing to achieve higher AST initiation rates but with considerations necessary regarding practicality, laboratory constraints, and culture failure rate. CONCLUSION: The study fundamentally demonstrates a novel approach to conceptualising the patient-clinician dynamic within AMR testing utilising a model-based approach. It suggests targeted interventions to educational, support tools, and legislative framework as feasible strategies to improve AST initiation rates. However, the research fundamentally highlights substantial research gaps in the underlying understanding of AMR.

Exercise as airway clearance therapy (ExACT) in cystic fibrosis: a UK-based e-Delphi survey of patients, caregivers and health professionals.

Replacing traditional airway clearance therapy (tACT) with exercise (ExACT) in people with cystic fibrosis (pwCF) is a top research priority. A UK-based e-Delphi consensus was performed to inform the type(s), duration and intensity of ExACT. The expert panel comprised CF physiotherapists, doctors, pwCF and parents/partners. Exercise ACT was considered to be aerobic activity, of at least 20 min duration and intense enough to elicit deep breathing. Consensus was reached that assessment breaths, coughs and huffs should accompany exercise to remove loose secretions, with support for trials to investigate ExACT versus tACT during times of stable disease but not pulmonary exacerbations.

Strengthening antimicrobial resistance surveillance systems: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an emerging global public health crisis. Surveillance is a fundamental component in the monitoring and evaluation of AMR mitigation endeavours. The primary aim of the scoping review is to identify successes, barriers, and gaps in implementing AMR surveillance systems and utilising data from them. METHODS: PubMed, Web of Science, SCOPUS, and EMBASE databases were searched systematically to identify literature pertaining to implementation, monitoring, and evaluation of AMR surveillance systems. A thematic analysis was conducted where themes within the literature were inductively grouped based on the described content. RESULTS: The systematic search yielded 639 journal articles for screening. Following deduplication and screening, 46 articles were determined to be appropriate for inclusion. Generally, most studies focused on human AMR surveillance (n = 38, 82.6%). Regionally, there was equal focus on low- and middle-income countries (n = 7, 15.2%) and trans-national contexts (n = 7, 14.5%). All included articles (n = 46, 100.0%) discussed barriers to either implementing or utilising AMR surveillance systems. From the scoping review, 6 themes emerged: capacity for surveillance, data infrastructure, policy, representativeness, stakeholder engagement, and sustainability. Data infrastructure was most frequently discussed as problematic in evaluation of surveillance systems (n = 36, 75.0%). The most frequent success to surveillance system implementation was stakeholder engagement (n = 30, 65.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Experiences of AMR surveillance systems are diverse across contexts. There is a distinct separation of experiences between systems with emerging surveillance systems and those with established systems. Surveillance systems require extensive refinement to become representative and meet surveillance objectives.

Nursing experiences in antimicrobial optimisation in the intensive care unit: A convergent analysis of a national survey.

BACKGROUND: Recent evidence highlights the need for an interdisciplinary approach to antimicrobial stewardship (AMS). Nursing involvement in optimising antimicrobials in the intensive care unit (ICU) remains understudied. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to explore nurses' perceptions and experiences of antimicrobial optimisation or stewardship in ICUs in Australia. METHODS: An anonymous web-based survey was deployed nationally in early 2021 through two ICU nursing networks. Associations between survey responses were analysed descriptively and by using nonparametric tests (with statistical significance established at p ≤ 0.05). Free-text survey responses underwent qualitative thematic analysis. Interpretation and reporting of quantitative and qualitative data were integrated. RESULTS: A total of 226 ICU nurses completed the survey. The majority (197/226; 87%) responded that lack of education limits engagement in AMS. Only 13% (30/226) reported the presence of AMS education and training for nurses in their ICUs. Only about half (108/226; 48%) of the nurses were confident to question prescribers when they considered that the antimicrobial prescribed was unnecessary, with nurses in senior roles more likely to do so than nurses providing bedside care (p < 0.05). Gaps in education (including unfamiliarity with AMS roles), noninclusive antimicrobial discussions, moral distress, and potential workload burden were seen as potential barriers/challenges to engagement. CONCLUSION: The multifactorial barriers identified that inhibit nurses from performing AMS tasks could be addressed by strengthening interprofessional education at all levels and by applying practical AMS interventions that are inclusive for nursing participation. A purposeful culture change that fosters psychological safety and collaborative practice is paramount to supporting nurses in these roles.

Analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons towards a more effective response to public health emergencies.

BACKGROUND: The pandemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a timely reminder of the nature and impact of Public Health Emergencies of International Concern. As of 12 January 2022, there were over 314 million cases and over 5.5 million deaths notified since the start of the pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic takes variable shapes and forms, in terms of cases and deaths, in different regions and countries of the world. The objective of this study is to analyse the variable expression of COVID-19 pandemic so that lessons can be learned towards an effective public health emergency response. METHODS: We conducted a mixed-methods study to understand the heterogeneity of cases and deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Correlation analysis and scatter plot were employed for the quantitative data. We used Spearman's correlation analysis to determine relationship strength between cases and deaths and socio-economic and health systems. We organized qualitative information from the literature and conducted a thematic analysis to recognize patterns of cases and deaths and explain the findings from the quantitative data. RESULTS: We have found that regions and countries with high human development index have higher cases and deaths per million population due to COVID-19. This is due to international connectedness and mobility of their population related to trade and tourism, and their vulnerability related to older populations and higher rates of non-communicable diseases. We have also identified that the burden of the pandemic is also variable among high- and middle-income countries due to differences in the governance of the pandemic, fragmentation of health systems, and socio-economic inequities. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates that every country remains vulnerable to public health emergencies. The aspiration towards a healthier and safer society requires that countries develop and implement a coherent and context-specific national strategy, improve governance of public health emergencies, build the capacity of their (public) health systems, minimize fragmentation, and tackle upstream structural issues, including socio-economic inequities. This is possible through a primary health care approach, which ensures provision of universal and equitable promotive, preventive and curative services, through whole-of-government and whole-of-society approaches.

Student reflections on an interdisciplinary pandemics course utilising systems thinking.

ISSUE ADDRESSED: The complexity and uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic highlights the need to change training of public health professionals in higher education by shifting from siloed specialisations to interdisciplinary collaboration. At the end of 2020 and 2021, public health professionals collaboratively designed and delivered, a week-long intensive course-Public Health in Pandemics. The aim of this research study was to understand whether the use of systems thinking in the design and delivery of the course enabled students to grasp the interdisciplinary nature of contemporary health promotion and public health practice. RESEARCH METHODS: Two focus group interviews (n = 5 and 3/47) and a course opinion survey (n = 11/47) were utilised to gather information from students regarding experiences and perceptions of course design and delivery, and to determine if students felt better able to understand the complex nature of pandemics and pandemic responses. MAJOR FINDINGS: Students provided positive feedback on the course and believed that the course design and delivery assisted in understanding the complex nature of health problems and the ways in which health promotion and public health practitioners need to work across sectors with diverse disciplines for pandemic responses. CONCLUSIONS: The use of an integrated interdisciplinary approach to course design and delivery enabled students used systems thinking to understand the complexity in preparing for and responding to a pandemic. This approach may have utility in preparing an agile, iterative and adaptive health promotion and public health workforce more capable of facing the challenges and complexity in public health.

Exploring governance for a One Health collaboration for leptospirosis prevention and control in Fiji: Stakeholder perceptions, evidence, and processes.

Fiji has a high burden of leptospirosis, with endemic infection and epidemic outbreaks with high mortality, often associated with flooding and cyclones. As a zoonosis, leptospirosis control requires interventions in sectors beyond the usual control of health-in Fiji, the dairy and sugar industries, and water and sanitation and rodent control in communities. This paper presents the findings of qualitative research to inform policy around governance for a One Health multisectoral approach to leptospirosis control. METHODS: Key informants from relevant government agencies and industry organizations were interviewed in late 2014, and the interviews analyzed and triangulated with documentary analysis. FINDINGS: The analysis identified 5 themes: perceptions of the impact of leptospirosis, governance processes, models for collaboration, leptospirosis control, and preferred leadership for leptospirosis management. Data were limited, with poor communication between ministries, and limited awareness of leptospirosis outside outbreaks. Collaboration during outbreaks was positive but not sustained in endemic periods. Mechanism for enhanced collaboration was developed for endemic and outbreak situations. CONCLUSION: The findings informed a One Health governance approach to leptospirosis, framed within a National Strategic Plan, with a specific National Action Plan for Leptospirosis. The process provides a research based One Health template for application to other zoonotic diseases.

Comparing antibiotic treatment for leptospirosis using network meta-analysis: a tutorial.

BACKGROUND: Network meta-analysis consists of simultaneous analysis of both direct comparisons of interventions within randomized controlled trials and indirect comparisons across trials based on a common comparator. In this paper, we aimed to characterise the conceptual understanding and the rationale for the use of network meta-analysis in assessing drug efficacy. METHODS: We selected randomized controlled trials, assessing efficacy of antibiotics for the treatment of leptospirosis as a case study. A pairwise meta-analysis was conducted using a random effect model, assuming that different studies assessed different but related treatment effects. The analysis was then extended to a network meta-analysis, which consists of direct and indirect evidence in a network of antibiotics trials, using a suite of multivariate meta-analysis routines of STATA (mvmeta command). We also assessed an assumption of 'consistency' that estimates of treatment effects from direct and indirect evidence are in agreement. RESULTS: Seven randomised controlled trials were identified for this analysis. These RCTs assessed the efficacy of antibiotics such as penicillin, doxycycline and cephalosporin for the treatment of human leptospirosis. These studies made comparisons between antibiotics (i.e. an antibiotic versus alternative antibiotic) in the primary study and a placebo, except for cephalosporin. These studies were sufficient to allow the creation of a network for the network meta-analysis; a closed loop in which three comparator antibiotics were connected to each other through a polygon. The comparison of penicillin versus the placebo has the largest contribution to the entire network (31.8%). The assessment of rank probabilities indicated that penicillin presented the greatest likelihood of improving efficacy among the evaluated antibiotics for treating leptospirosis. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that network meta-analysis, a meta-analysis comparing multiple treatments, is feasible and should be considered as better precision of effect estimates for decisions when several antibiotic options are available for the treatment of leptospirosis.

Limiting swimming pool outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis - the roles of regulations, staff, patrons and research.

Cryptosporidium is the leading cause of swimming pool outbreaks of gastroenteritis. Transmission occurs through the ingestion of oocysts that are passed in the faeces of an infected person or animal when an accidental faecal release event occurs. Cryptosporidium parasites present specific challenges for infection control as oocysts are highly resistant to chlorine levels used for pool disinfection, infected individuals can shed large numbers of oocysts, there is a long incubation period and shedding of oocysts occurs even after symptom resolution. The purposes of this review are to identify key barriers to limiting swimming pool-associated outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis and to outline needs for research and collaboration to advance co-ordinated management practices. We reviewed swimming pool-associated cryptosporidiosis outbreaks, disinfection teachniques, current regulations and the role of staff and patrons. Key barriers to limiting swimming pool-associated outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis are a lack of uniform national and international standards, poor adherence and understanding of regulations governing staff and patron behaviour, and low levels of public knowledge and awareness.

A process for developing multisectoral strategies for zoonoses: the case of leptospirosis in Fiji.

BACKGROUND: Zoonotic diseases such as leptospirosis occur as a result of the often complex interactions that exist at the human-animal-environment interface. The most obvious consequence of this complexity is the need for the health sector to partner with institutions in other sectors of society such as agriculture, labour and local government. This multisectoral engagement is complicated by the different agendas and cultures of the various institutions and their ability to "see" their role and ant benefits in a collaborative response. METHODS: The research used a realist review methodology combined with systems thinking frameworks to determine the optimal strategy and governance for the prevention and control of leptospirosis in Fiji. The process included facilitated workshops with multiple stakeholders to determine the needs, issues and potential interventions that was guided by a synthesis of locally available data and information on the impact of leptospirosis. This process was informed by interviews with bureaucrats from different government ministries. RESULTS: Stakeholders concurred that leptospirosis generally only received wide-spread attention in outbreaks, when there is media coverage of deaths or a large number of hospitalisations. In general, all ministries expressed support for a multisectoral strategy but saw the Ministry of Health and Medical Services as the lead agency with overall responsibility. The final consultation workshop yielded a clearly articulated goal to reduce the case fatality rate attributable to leptospirosis by 50% by 2020 and 4 overarching strategies: 1) improved clinical management of leptospirosis, 2) improved surveillance for leptospirosis, 3) enhanced communication to minimise risk and improve health seeking behaviours, and 4) strengthening coordination and governance structures. CONCLUSION: Human mortality and morbidity remained the primary drive for government action, defining leptospirosis as a human health problem. The process of deliberative consultation, and the engagement of multidisciplinary partners has provided a platform for collaborative policy development, and a consensus for a National Action Plan from which further negotiated collaboration will be possible.

Comparative pathogenesis of eosinophilic meningitis caused by Angiostrongylus mackerrasae and Angiostrongylus cantonensis in murine and guinea pig models of human infection.

This study investigated comparatively the pathogenicity of experimental infection of mice and guinea pigs, with Angiostrongylus mackerrasae and the closely related species A. cantonensis. Time course analyses showed that A. mackerrasae causes eosinophilic meningitis in these hosts, which suggests that the species has the potential to cause meningitis in humans and domestic animals. Both A. mackerrasae and the genetically similar A. cantonensis caused eosinophilic meningitis in mice at two time points of 14 and 21 days post infection (dpi). The brain lesions in mice infected with A. mackerrasae were more granulomatous in nature and the parasites were more likely to appear degenerate compared with lesions caused by A. cantonensis. This may indicate that the mouse immune system eliminates A. mackerrasae infection more effectively. The immunologic responses of mice infected with the two Angiostrongylus species was compared by assessing ex vivo stimulated spleen derived T cells and cytokines including interferon-gamma, interleukin 4 and interleukin 17 on 14 and 21 dpi. The results were similar for mice infected with A. cantonensis and A. mackerrasae. Serum from the infected animals with either A. cantonensis or A. mackerrasae recognized total soluble antigen of A. cantonensis female worms on Western blot.

Investigation of the morphological diversity of the potentially zoonotic Trypanosoma copemani in quokkas and Gilbert's potoroos.

Trypanosomes are blood-borne parasites that can cause severe disease in both humans and animals, yet little is known of the pathogenicity and life-cycles of trypanosomes in native Australian mammals. Trypanosoma copemani is known to be infective to a variety of Australian marsupials and has recently been shown to be potentially zoonotic as it is resistant to normal human serum. In the present study, in vivo and in vitro examination of blood and cultures from Australian marsupials was conducted using light microscopy, immunofluorescence, scanning electron microscopy and fluorescence in situ hybridization. Promastigote, sphaeromastigote and amastigote life-cycle stages were detected in vivo and in vitro. Novel trypanosome-like stages were also detected both in vivo and in vitro representing an oval stage, an extremely thin stage, an adherent stage and a tiny round stage. The tiny round and adherent stages appeared to adhere to erythrocytes causing potential haematological damage with clinical effects similar to haemolytic anaemia. The present study shows for the first time that trypomastigotes are not the only life-cycle stages circulating within the blood stream of trypanosome infected Australian native marsupials and provides insights into possible pathogenic mechanisms of this potentially zoonotic trypanosome species.

A 'training of trainers' programme for operational research: increasing capacity remotely.

BACKGROUND: Operational research (OR) is a process to improve health system capacity by evaluating interventions to improve health delivery and outcomes. The World Health Organization (WHO) Structured Operational Research Training Initiative (SORT-IT) programme promotes how OR contributes to improved health care delivery and health outcomes. A partnership project between the International Institute of Primary Health Care (IPHCE) in Ethiopia and The University of Queensland (UQ) in Australia modified the SORT-IT programme to deliver a hybrid Training of Trainers programme and improve OR capacity. OBJECTIVE: This study was performed to develop and evaluate the effectiveness of Train-the Trainers approach in building capability to expand the capacity of the IPHCE to deliver the SORT-IT programme. METHODS: Recruitment of participants and training were aligned with the principles of the SORT-IT programme. Training was face-to-face for the first session with subsequent training sessions delivered via Zoom over a 13-week period. Participants were required to complete all activities in line with SORT-IT deliverables. Slide decks supporting the SORT-IT training videos were developed and adapted to the Ethiopian context. RESULTS: Participants had diverse experience from programme directors to research officers. All training sessions were recorded and available for participants to watch and review when required. All participants completed OR protocols to the draft stage. Course evaluation revealed participants found the content and format of the training useful, pertinent, and interesting. CONCLUSION: A hybrid model (face-to-face and video platform) for OR training was implemented. Managing contextual challenges such as information technology were managed easily by programme staff. Translating course requirements at a management level proved challenging with data collection for the protocols but provided insight into potential future challenges. This OR Training of Trainers course demonstrated that sharing of skills and knowledge can occur through a hybrid delivery model and contribute to developing capacity.

Greenspace and risk of obesity-related cancer in the UK Biobank cohort: An analysis of private residential gardens and other greenspace types.

BACKGROUND: Cohort studies linking greenspace exposure to a lower risk of obesity-related cancer (ORC) are scarce. Existing evidence on site-specific cancers has predominantly relied on non-specific greenspace measures, including vegetation indices. We examined the associations of total greenspace, private residential gardens, and other greenspace types with the risk of being diagnosed with overall and site-specific ORC. METHODS: We used data from the participants in the UK Biobank recruited between 2006 and 2010 and censored until December 31, 2016. We defined greenspace variables using Ordnance Survey MasterMap™ greenspace categories. The incidence of ORC was ascertained through data linkage to cancer registries. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models and adjusted for covariates. We conducted mediation and modification analysis by physical activity, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D], and particulate matter air pollution with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), as well as subgroup analysis by covariates. RESULTS: Among 279,326 participants, 9550 developed ORC over a median follow-up period of 7.82 years. An increase in private residential gardens within a 100 m buffer was associated with a decreased risk of overall ORC (HR:0.92; 95 % CI: 0.88, 0.96), breast cancer (HR: 0.91; 95 % CI: 0.84, 0.98), and uterine cancer (HR:0.80; 95 % CI: 0.67, 0.96). There was no association between other greenspace types and ORC, except for uterine cancer. The association for ORC was partly mediated by NO2 and modified by physical activity levels, 25(OH)D, PM2.5, and NO2, and sociodemographic factors, including sex and neighbourhood socioeconomic status. CONCLUSION: Increased exposure to private residential gardens may lower the risk of being diagnosed with obesity-related cancer, particularly breast and uterine cancer. Future studies might move beyond considering greenspace quantity to explore functional types of greenspace exposure that should be prioritized for targeted health intervention and cancer prevention.

Communicable Diseases Prevalence among Refugees and Asylum Seekers: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Communicable diseases remain a significant global health issue. The increase in refugees and asylum seekers associated with conflicts may alter the burden of communicable diseases in host countries. We conducted a systematic review of the prevalence of TB, HBC, HCV, and HIV among refugees and asylum seekers by regions of asylum and origin. METHODS: Four electronic databases were searched from initiation to the 25 December 2022. Prevalence estimates were pooled into a random-effect model and were stratified by the region of origin and asylum. Meta-analysis was conducted to explore the heterogeneity of the included studies. RESULTS: The most-reported asylum region was The Americas, represented by the United States of America. Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean was the region of the most-reported origin. The highest reported prevalence of active TB and HIV was among African refugees and asylum seekers. The highest reported prevalence of latent TB, HBV and HCV was among Asian and Eastern Mediterranean refugees and asylum seekers. High heterogeneity was found regardless of the communicable disease type or stratification. CONCLUSION: This review provided insights about refugees' and asylum seekers' status around the world and attempted to connect refugees' and asylum seekers' distribution and the burden of communicable diseases.

Enhancing Insights into Australia's Gonococcal Surveillance Programme through Stochastic Modelling.

Continued surveillance of antimicrobial resistance is critical as a feedback mechanism for the generation of concerted public health action. A characteristic of importance in evaluating disease surveillance systems is representativeness. Scenario tree modelling offers an approach to quantify system representativeness. This paper utilises the modelling approach to assess the Australian Gonococcal Surveillance Programme's representativeness as a case study. The model was built by identifying the sequence of events necessary for surveillance output generation through expert consultation and literature review. A scenario tree model was developed encompassing 16 dichotomous branches representing individual system sub-components. Key classifications included biological sex, clinical symptom status, and location of healthcare service access. The expected sensitivities for gonococcal detection and antibiotic status ascertainment were 0.624 (95% CI; 0.524, 0.736) and 0.144 (95% CI; 0.106, 0.189), respectively. Detection capacity of the system was observed to be high overall. The stochastic modelling approach has highlighted the need to consider differential risk factors such as sex, health-seeking behaviours, and clinical behaviour in sample generation. Actionable points generated by this study include modification of clinician behaviour and supplementary systems to achieve a greater contextual understanding of the surveillance data generation process.

In-orbit demonstration of a re-trainable machine learning payload for processing optical imagery.

Cognitive cloud computing in space (3CS) describes a new frontier of space innovation powered by Artificial Intelligence, enabling an explosion of new applications in observing our planet and enabling deep space exploration. In this framework, machine learning (ML) payloads-isolated software capable of extracting high level information from onboard sensors-are key to accomplish this vision. In this work we demonstrate, in a satellite deployed in orbit, a ML payload called 'WorldFloods' that is able to send compressed flood maps from sensed images. In particular, we perform a set of experiments to: (1) compare different segmentation models on different processing variables critical for onboard deployment, (2) show that we can produce, onboard, vectorised polygons delineating the detected flood water from a full Sentinel-2 tile, (3) retrain the model with few images of the onboard sensor downlinked to Earth and (4) demonstrate that this new model can be uplinked to the satellite and run on new images acquired by its camera. Overall our work demonstrates that ML-based models deployed in orbit can be updated if new information is available, paving the way for agile integration of onboard and onground processing and "on the fly" continuous learning.

A review of the circumstances and health-seeking behaviours associated with bat exposures in high-income countries.

Human-bat interactions are now the source of the majority of locally acquired human lyssavirus infections in many high-income countries without hematophagous or 'vampire' bat species. This study aims to identify the most common types and circumstances of bat exposures occurring among members of the general public in high-income countries with no hematophagous bats, and to describe the health-seeking behaviours associated with exposures in these settings. We conducted a scoping review of relevant academic and grey literature on bat exposures and confirmed bat lyssavirus infections among members of the general public in Australia, Canada, the United States and high-income European countries from 1996 to 2019. Case studies and population-based studies were included for analysis, and findings were extracted and synthesized by the literature type and geographic region. A total of 63 publications were identified, including: 47 case studies and 16 population-based studies. Overall, most exposures in Australia and Europe were intentionally initiated by humans and involved attempts to handle, touch or help a bat. In North America, however, household exposures were more common and predominantly involved a bat being found in a room or area where a person had slept. Studies also showed that a proportion of bat exposures in high-income countries go unreported in the absence of a public health investigation and are therefore unlikely to receive prompt treatment. The results of this review suggest that the most effective strategies for preventing bat exposures vary between regions and that health-seeking behaviours following bat exposures could be improved in high-income settings.

A review of national action plans on antimicrobial resistance: strengths and weaknesses.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization developed the Global Action Plan on Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) as a priority because of the increasing threat posed to human health, animal health and agriculture. Countries around the world have been encouraged to develop their own National Action Plans (NAPs) to help combat AMR. The objective of this review was to assess the content of the NAPs and determine alignment with the Global Action Plan on Antimicrobial Resistance using a policy analysis approach. BODY: National Action Plans were accessed from the WHO Library and systematically analysed using a policy analysis approach for actors, process, context and content. Information was assessed using a 'traffic light' system to determine agreeance with the five WHO Global Action Plans objectives. A total of 78 NAPs (70 WHO approved, eight not approved) from the five global regions were analysed. National action plans which provided more information regarding the consultative process and the current situation regarding AMR allowed greater insight to capabilities of the country. Despite the availability of guidelines to inform the development of the plans, there were many differences between plans with the content of information provided. High income countries indicated greater progression with objectives achievement while low and middle-income countries presented the need for human and financial resources. CONCLUSION: The national action plans provide an overview of activities underway to combat AMR globally. This analysis reveals how disconnected the process has been and how little information is being gathered globally.

Estimating the duration of antibody positivity and likely time of Leptospira infection using data from a cross-sectional serological study in Fiji.

BACKGROUND: Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease prevalent throughout the world, but with particularly high burden in Oceania (including the Pacific Island Countries and Territories). Leptospirosis is endemic in Fiji, with outbreaks often occurring following heavy rainfall and flooding. As a result of non-specific clinical manifestation and diagnostic challenges, cases are often misdiagnosed or under-ascertained. Furthermore, little is known about the duration of persistence of antibodies to leptospirosis, which has important clinical and epidemiological implications. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using the results from a serosurvey conducted in Fiji in 2013, we fitted serocatalytic models to estimate the duration of antibody positivity and the force of infection (FOI, the rate at which susceptible individuals acquire infection or seroconversion), whilst accounting for seroreversion. Additionally, we estimated the most likely timing of infection. Using the reverse catalytic model, we estimated the duration of antibody persistence to be 8.33 years (4.76-12.50; assuming constant FOI) and 7.25 years (3.36-11.36; assuming time-varying FOI), which is longer than previous estimates. Using population age-structured seroprevalence data alone, we were not able to distinguish between these two models. However, by bringing in additional longitudinal data on antibody kinetics we were able to estimate the most likely time of infection, lending support to the time-varying FOI model. We found that most individuals who were antibody-positive in the 2013 serosurvey were likely to have been infected within the previous two years, and this finding is consistent with surveillance data showing high numbers of cases reported in 2012 and 2013. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to use serocatalytic models to estimate the FOI and seroreversion rate for Leptospira infection. As well as providing an estimate for the duration of antibody positivity, we also present a novel method to estimate the most likely time of infection from seroprevalence data. These approaches can allow for richer, longitudinal information to be inferred from cross-sectional studies, and could be applied to other endemic diseases where antibody waning occurs.