Continental configuration controls ocean oxygenation during the Phanerozoic.

The early evolutionary and much of the extinction history of marine animals is thought to be driven by changes in dissolved oxygen concentrations ([O2]) in the ocean1-3. In turn, [O2] is widely assumed to be dominated by the geological history of atmospheric oxygen (pO2)4,5. Here, by contrast, we show by means of a series of Earth system model experiments how continental rearrangement during the Phanerozoic Eon drives profound variations in ocean oxygenation and induces a fundamental decoupling in time between upper-ocean and benthic [O2]. We further identify the presence of state transitions in the global ocean circulation, which lead to extensive deep-ocean anoxia developing in the early Phanerozoic even under modern pO2. Our finding that ocean oxygenation oscillates over stable thousand-year (kyr) periods also provides a causal mechanism that might explain elevated rates of metazoan radiation and extinction during the early Palaeozoic Era6. The absence, in our modelling, of any simple correlation between global climate and ocean ventilation, and the occurrence of profound variations in ocean oxygenation independent of atmospheric pO2, presents a challenge to the interpretation of marine redox proxies, but also points to a hitherto unrecognized role for continental configuration in the evolution of the biosphere.

Post-extinction recovery of the Phanerozoic oceans and biodiversity hotspots.

The fossil record of marine invertebrates has long fuelled the debate as to whether or not there are limits to global diversity in the sea1-5. Ecological theory states that, as diversity grows and ecological niches are filled, the strengthening of biological interactions imposes limits on diversity6,7. However, the extent to which biological interactions have constrained the growth of diversity over evolutionary time remains an open question1-5,8-11. Here we present a regional diversification model that reproduces the main Phanerozoic eon trends in the global diversity of marine invertebrates after imposing mass extinctions. We find that the dynamics of global diversity are best described by a diversification model that operates widely within the exponential growth regime of a logistic function. A spatially resolved analysis of the ratio of diversity to carrying capacity reveals that less than 2% of the global flooded continental area throughout the Phanerozoic exhibits diversity levels approaching ecological saturation. We attribute the overall increase in global diversity during the Late Mesozoic and Cenozoic eras to the development of diversity hotspots under prolonged conditions of Earth system stability and maximum continental fragmentation. We call this the 'diversity hotspots hypothesis', which we propose as a non-mutually exclusive alternative to the hypothesis that the Mesozoic marine revolution led this macroevolutionary trend12,13.

Sensitivity of ocean circulation to warming during the Early Eocene greenhouse.

Multiple abrupt warming events ("hyperthermals") punctuated the Early Eocene and were associated with deep-sea temperature increases of 2 to 4 °C, seafloor carbonate dissolution, and negative carbon isotope (δ13C) excursions. Whether hyperthermals were associated with changes in the global ocean overturning circulation is important for understanding their driving mechanisms and feedbacks and for gaining insight into the circulation's sensitivity to climatic warming. Here, we present high-resolution benthic foraminiferal stable isotope records (δ13C and δ18O) throughout the Early Eocene Climate Optimum (~53.26 to 49.14 Ma) from the deep equatorial and North Atlantic. Combined with existing records from the South Atlantic and Pacific, these indicate consistently amplified δ13C excursion sizes during hyperthermals in the deep equatorial Atlantic. We compare these observations with results from an intermediate complexity Earth system model to demonstrate that this spatial pattern of δ13C excursion size is a predictable consequence of global warming-induced changes in ocean overturning circulation. In our model, transient warming drives the weakening of Southern Ocean-sourced overturning circulation, strengthens Atlantic meridional water mass aging gradients, and amplifies the magnitude of negative δ13C excursions in the equatorial to North Atlantic. Based on model-data consistency, we conclude that Eocene hyperthermals coincided with repeated weakening of the global overturning circulation. Not accounting for ocean circulation impacts on δ13C excursions will lead to incorrect estimates of the magnitude of carbon release driving hyperthermals. Our finding of weakening overturning in response to past transient climatic warming is consistent with predictions of declining Atlantic Ocean overturning strength in our warm future.

Diversity decoupled from ecosystem function and resilience during mass extinction recovery.

The Chicxulub bolide impact 66 million years ago drove the near-instantaneous collapse of ocean ecosystems. The devastating loss of diversity at the base of ocean food webs probably triggered cascading extinctions across all trophic levels1-3 and caused severe disruption of the biogeochemical functions of the ocean, and especially disrupted the cycling of carbon between the surface and deep sea4,5. The absence of sufficiently detailed biotic data that span the post-extinction interval has limited our understanding of how ecosystem resilience and biochemical function was restored; estimates6-8 of ecosystem 'recovery' vary from less than 100 years to 10 million years. Here, using a 13-million-year-long nannoplankton time series, we show that post-extinction communities exhibited 1.8 million years of exceptional volatility before a more stable equilibrium-state community emerged that displayed hallmarks of resilience. The transition to this new equilibrium-state community with a broader spectrum of cell sizes coincides with indicators of carbon-cycle restoration and a fully functioning biological pump9. These findings suggest a fundamental link between ecosystem recovery and biogeochemical cycling over timescales that are longer than those suggested by proxies of export production7,8, but far shorter than the return of taxonomic richness6. The fact that species richness remained low as both community stability and biological pump efficiency re-emerged suggests that ecological functions rather than the number of species are more important to community resilience and biochemical functions.

Spatial patterns of climate change across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma) is one of our best geological analogs for understanding climate dynamics in a "greenhouse" world. However, proxy data representing the event are only available from select marine and terrestrial sedimentary sequences that are unevenly distributed across Earth's surface, limiting our view of the spatial patterns of climate change. Here, we use paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) to combine climate model and proxy information and create a spatially complete reconstruction of the PETM and the climate state that precedes it ("PETM-DA"). Our data-constrained results support strong polar amplification, which in the absence of an extensive cryosphere, is related to temperature feedbacks and loss of seasonal snow on land. The response of the hydrological cycle to PETM warming consists of a narrowing of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, off-equatorial drying, and an intensification of seasonal monsoons and winter storm tracks. Many of these features are also seen in simulations of future climate change under increasing anthropogenic emissions. Since the PETM-DA yields a spatially complete estimate of surface air temperature, it yields a rigorous estimate of global mean temperature change (5.6 ∘C; 5.4 ∘C to 5.9 ∘C, 95% CI) that can be used to calculate equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). We find that PETM ECS was 6.5 ∘C (5.7 ∘C to 7.4 ∘C, 95% CI), which is much higher than the present-day range. This supports the view that climate sensitivity increases substantially when greenhouse gas concentrations are high.

Decreasing Phanerozoic extinction intensity as a consequence of Earth surface oxygenation and metazoan ecophysiology.

The decline in background extinction rates of marine animals through geologic time is an established but unexplained feature of the Phanerozoic fossil record. There is also growing consensus that the ocean and atmosphere did not become oxygenated to near-modern levels until the mid-Paleozoic, coinciding with the onset of generally lower extinction rates. Physiological theory provides us with a possible causal link between these two observations-predicting that the synergistic impacts of oxygen and temperature on aerobic respiration would have made marine animals more vulnerable to ocean warming events during periods of limited surface oxygenation. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis that changes in surface oxygenation exerted a first-order control on extinction rates through the Phanerozoic using a combined Earth system and ecophysiological modeling approach. We find that although continental configuration, the efficiency of the biological carbon pump in the ocean, and initial climate state all impact the magnitude of modeled biodiversity loss across simulated warming events, atmospheric oxygen is the dominant predictor of extinction vulnerability, with metabolic habitat viability and global ecophysiotype extinction exhibiting inflection points around 40% of present atmospheric oxygen. Given this is the broad upper limit for estimates of early Paleozoic oxygen levels, our results are consistent with the relative frequency of high-magnitude extinction events (particularly those not included in the canonical big five mass extinctions) early in the Phanerozoic being a direct consequence of limited early Paleozoic oxygenation and temperature-dependent hypoxia responses.

Very large release of mostly volcanic carbon during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

The Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was a global warming event that occurred about 56 million years ago, and is commonly thought to have been driven primarily by the destabilization of carbon from surface sedimentary reservoirs such as methane hydrates. However, it remains controversial whether such reservoirs were indeed the source of the carbon that drove the warming. Resolving this issue is key to understanding the proximal cause of the warming, and to quantifying the roles of triggers versus feedbacks. Here we present boron isotope data-a proxy for seawater pH-that show that the ocean surface pH was persistently low during the PETM. We combine our pH data with a paired carbon isotope record in an Earth system model in order to reconstruct the unfolding carbon-cycle dynamics during the event. We find strong evidence for a much larger (more than 10,000 petagrams)-and, on average, isotopically heavier-carbon source than considered previously. This leads us to identify volcanism associated with the North Atlantic Igneous Province, rather than carbon from a surface reservoir, as the main driver of the PETM. This finding implies that climate-driven amplification of organic carbon feedbacks probably played only a minor part in driving the event. However, we find that enhanced burial of organic matter seems to have been important in eventually sequestering the released carbon and accelerating the recovery of the Earth system.

Bistability in the redox chemistry of sediments and oceans.

For most of Earth's history, the ocean's interior was pervasively anoxic and showed occasional shifts in ocean redox chemistry between iron-buffered and sulfide-buffered states. These redox transitions are most often explained by large changes in external inputs, such as a strongly altered delivery of iron and sulfate to the ocean, or major shifts in marine productivity. Here, we propose that redox shifts can also arise from small perturbations that are amplified by nonlinear positive feedbacks within the internal iron and sulfur cycling of the ocean. Combining observational evidence with biogeochemical modeling, we show that both sedimentary and aquatic systems display intrinsic iron-sulfur bistability, which is tightly linked to the formation of reduced iron-sulfide minerals. The possibility of tipping points in the redox state of sediments and oceans, which allow large and nonreversible geochemical shifts to arise from relatively small changes in organic carbon input, has important implications for the interpretation of the geological rock record and the causes and consequences of major evolutionary transitions in the history of Earth's biosphere.

Exploring the impact of climate change on the global distribution of non-spinose planktonic foraminifera using a trait-based ecosystem model.

Planktonic foraminifera are one of the primary calcifiers in the modern ocean, contributing 23%-56% of total global pelagic carbonate production. However, a mechanistic understanding of how physiology and environmental conditions control their abundance and distribution is lacking, hindering the projection of the impact of future climate change. This understanding is important, not only for ecosystem dynamics, but also for marine carbon cycling because of foraminifera's key role in carbonate production. Here we present and apply a global trait-based ecosystem model of non-spinose planktonic foraminifera ('ForamEcoGEnIE') to assess their ecology and global distribution under future climate change. ForamEcoGEnIE considers the traits of calcium carbonate production, shell size, and foraging. It captures the main characteristic of biogeographical patterns of non-spinose species - with maximum biomass concentrations found in mid- to high-latitude waters and upwelling areas. The model also reproduces the magnitude of global carbonate production relatively well, although the foraminifera standing stock is systematically overestimated. In response to future scenarios of rising atmospheric CO2 (RCP6 and RCP8.5), on a regional scale, the modelled foraminifera biomass and export flux increases in the subpolar regions of the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean while it decreases everywhere else. In the absence of adaptation, the biomass decline in the low-latitude South Pacific suggests extirpation. The model projects a global average loss in non-spinose foraminifera biomass between 8% (RCP6) and 11% (RCP8.5) by 2050 and between 14% and 18% by 2100 as a response to ocean warming and associated changes in primary production and ecological dynamics. Global calcium carbonate flux associated with non-spinose foraminifera declines by 13%-18% by 2100. That decline can slow down the ocean carbonate pump and create short-term positive feedback on rising atmospheric pCO2 .

Changing atmospheric CO2 concentration was the primary driver of early Cenozoic climate.

The Early Eocene Climate Optimum (EECO, which occurred about 51 to 53 million years ago), was the warmest interval of the past 65 million years, with mean annual surface air temperature over ten degrees Celsius warmer than during the pre-industrial period. Subsequent global cooling in the middle and late Eocene epoch, especially at high latitudes, eventually led to continental ice sheet development in Antarctica in the early Oligocene epoch (about 33.6 million years ago). However, existing estimates place atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels during the Eocene at 500-3,000 parts per million, and in the absence of tighter constraints carbon-climate interactions over this interval remain uncertain. Here we use recent analytical and methodological developments to generate a new high-fidelity record of CO2 concentrations using the boron isotope (δ(11)B) composition of well preserved planktonic foraminifera from the Tanzania Drilling Project, revising previous estimates. Although species-level uncertainties make absolute values difficult to constrain, CO2 concentrations during the EECO were around 1,400 parts per million. The relative decline in CO2 concentration through the Eocene is more robustly constrained at about fifty per cent, with a further decline into the Oligocene. Provided the latitudinal dependency of sea surface temperature change for a given climate forcing in the Eocene was similar to that of the late Quaternary period, this CO2 decline was sufficient to drive the well documented high- and low-latitude cooling that occurred through the Eocene. Once the change in global temperature between the pre-industrial period and the Eocene caused by the action of all known slow feedbacks (apart from those associated with the carbon cycle) is removed, both the EECO and the late Eocene exhibit an equilibrium climate sensitivity relative to the pre-industrial period of 2.1 to 4.6 degrees Celsius per CO2 doubling (66 per cent confidence), which is similar to the canonical range (1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius), indicating that a large fraction of the warmth of the early Eocene greenhouse was driven by increased CO2 concentrations, and that climate sensitivity was relatively constant throughout this period.

Fundamentally different global marine nitrogen cycling in response to severe ocean deoxygenation.

The present-day marine nitrogen (N) cycle is strongly regulated by biology. Deficiencies in the availability of fixed and readily bioavailable nitrogen relative to phosphate (P) in the surface ocean are largely corrected by the activity of diazotrophs. This feedback system, termed the "nitrostat," is thought to have provided close regulation of fixed-N speciation and inventory relative to P since the Proterozoic. In contrast, during intervals of intense deoxygenation such as Cretaceous ocean anoxic event (OAE) 2, a few regional sedimentary δ15N records hint at the existence of a different mode of marine N cycling in which ammonium plays a major role in regulating export production. However, the global-scale dynamics during this time remain unknown. Here, using an Earth System model and taking the example of OAE 2, we provide insights into the global marine nitrogen cycle under severe ocean deoxygenation. Specifically, we find that the ocean can exhibit fundamental transitions in the species of nitrogen dominating the fixed-N inventory--from nitrate (NO3-) to ammonium (NH4+)--and that as this transition occurs, the inventory can partially collapse relative to P due to progressive spatial decoupling between the loci of NH4+ oxidation, NO3- reduction, and nitrogen fixation. This finding is relatively independent of the specific state of ocean circulation and is consistent with nitrogen isotope and redox proxy data. The substantive reduction in the ocean fixed-N inventory at an intermediate state of deoxygenation may represent a biogeochemical vulnerability with potential implications for past and future (warmer) oceans.

Rapid ocean acidification and protracted Earth system recovery followed the end-Cretaceous Chicxulub impact.

Mass extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary coincides with the Chicxulub bolide impact and also falls within the broader time frame of Deccan trap emplacement. Critically, though, empirical evidence as to how either of these factors could have driven observed extinction patterns and carbon cycle perturbations is still lacking. Here, using boron isotopes in foraminifera, we document a geologically rapid surface-ocean pH drop following the Chicxulub impact, supporting impact-induced ocean acidification as a mechanism for ecological collapse in the marine realm. Subsequently, surface water pH rebounded sharply with the extinction of marine calcifiers and the associated imbalance in the global carbon cycle. Our reconstructed water-column pH gradients, combined with Earth system modeling, indicate that a partial ∼50% reduction in global marine primary productivity is sufficient to explain observed marine carbon isotope patterns at the K-Pg, due to the underlying action of the solubility pump. While primary productivity recovered within a few tens of thousands of years, inefficiency in carbon export to the deep sea lasted much longer. This phased recovery scenario reconciles competing hypotheses previously put forward to explain the K-Pg carbon isotope records, and explains both spatially variable patterns of change in marine productivity across the event and a lack of extinction at the deep sea floor. In sum, we provide insights into the drivers of the last mass extinction, the recovery of marine carbon cycling in a postextinction world, and the way in which marine life imprints its isotopic signal onto the geological record.

Ecosystem function after the K/Pg extinction: decoupling of marine carbon pump and diversity.

The ocean biological pump is the mechanism by which carbon and nutrients are transported to depth. As such, the biological pump is critical in the partitioning of carbon dioxide between the ocean and atmosphere, and the rate at which that carbon can be sequestered through burial in marine sediments. How the structure and function of planktic ecosystems in the ocean govern the strength and efficiency of the biological pump and its resilience to disruption are poorly understood. The aftermath of the impact at the Cretaceous/Palaeogene (K/Pg) boundary provides an ideal opportunity to address these questions as both the biological pump and marine plankton size and diversity were fundamentally disrupted. The excellent fossil record of planktic foraminifera as indicators of pelagic-biotic recovery combined with carbon isotope records tracing biological pump behaviour, show that the recovery of ecological traits (diversity, size and photosymbiosis) occurred much later (approx. 4.3 Ma) than biological pump recovery (approx. 1.8 Ma). We interpret this decoupling of diversity and the biological pump as an indication that ecosystem function had sufficiently recovered to drive an effective biological pump, at least regionally in the South Atlantic.

Strategies in times of crisis-insights into the benthic foraminiferal record of the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

Climate change is predicted to alter temperature, carbonate chemistry and oxygen availability in the oceans, which will affect individuals, populations and ecosystems. We use the fossil record of benthic foraminifers to assess developmental impacts in response to environmental changes during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). Using an unprecedented number of µ-computed tomography scans, we determine the size of the proloculus (first chamber), the number of chambers and the final size of two benthic foraminiferal species which survived the extinction at sites 690 (Atlantic sector, Southern Ocean, palaeodepth 1900 m), 1210 (central equatorial Pacific, palaeodepth 2100 m) and 1135 (Indian Ocean sector, Southern Ocean, palaeodepth 600-1000 m). The population at the shallowest site, 1135, does not show a clear response to the PETM, whereas those at the other sites record reductions in diameter or proloculus size. Temperature was similar at all sites, thus it is not likely to be the reason for differences between sites. At site 1210, small size coincided with higher chamber numbers during the peak event, and may have been caused by a combination of low carbonate ion concentrations and low food supply. Dwarfing at site 690 occurred at lower chamber numbers, and may have been caused by decreasing carbonate saturation at sufficient food levels to reproduce. Proloculus size varied strongly between sites and through time, suggesting a large influence of environment on both microspheric and megalospheric forms without clear bimodality. The effect of the environmental changes during the PETM was more pronounced at deeper sites, possibly implicating carbonate saturation.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Hyperthermals: rapid and extreme global warming in our geological past'.

A Cenozoic record of the equatorial Pacific carbonate compensation depth.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and climate are regulated on geological timescales by the balance between carbon input from volcanic and metamorphic outgassing and its removal by weathering feedbacks; these feedbacks involve the erosion of silicate rocks and organic-carbon-bearing rocks. The integrated effect of these processes is reflected in the calcium carbonate compensation depth, which is the oceanic depth at which calcium carbonate is dissolved. Here we present a carbonate accumulation record that covers the past 53 million years from a depth transect in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The carbonate compensation depth tracks long-term ocean cooling, deepening from 3.0-3.5 kilometres during the early Cenozoic (approximately 55 million years ago) to 4.6 kilometres at present, consistent with an overall Cenozoic increase in weathering. We find large superimposed fluctuations in carbonate compensation depth during the middle and late Eocene. Using Earth system models, we identify changes in weathering and the mode of organic-carbon delivery as two key processes to explain these large-scale Eocene fluctuations of the carbonate compensation depth.

Surviving rapid climate change in the deep sea during the Paleogene hyperthermals.

Predicting the impact of ongoing anthropogenic CO2 emissions on calcifying marine organisms is complex, owing to the synergy between direct changes (acidification) and indirect changes through climate change (e.g., warming, changes in ocean circulation, and deoxygenation). Laboratory experiments, particularly on longer-lived organisms, tend to be too short to reveal the potential of organisms to acclimatize, adapt, or evolve and usually do not incorporate multiple stressors. We studied two examples of rapid carbon release in the geological record, Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (∼53.2 Ma) and the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ∼55.5 Ma), the best analogs over the last 65 Ma for future ocean acidification related to high atmospheric CO2 levels. We use benthic foraminifers, which suffered severe extinction during the PETM, as a model group. Using synchrotron radiation X-ray tomographic microscopy, we reconstruct the calcification response of survivor species and find, contrary to expectations, that calcification significantly increased during the PETM. In contrast, there was no significant response to the smaller Eocene Thermal Maximum 2, which was associated with a minor change in diversity only. These observations suggest that there is a response threshold for extinction and calcification response, while highlighting the utility of the geological record in helping constrain the sensitivity of biotic response to environmental change.

Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification.

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40-70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered 'marginal' for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral reef ecosystems is essential to their conservation and management under a changing climate.

Volcanic CO2 degassing postdates thermogenic carbon emission during the end-Permian mass extinction.

Massive carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are widely assumed to be the driver of the end-Permian mass extinction (EPME). However, the rate of and total CO2 released, and whether the source changes with time, remain poorly understood, leaving a key question surrounding the trigger for the EPME unanswered. Here, we assimilate reconstructions of atmospheric Pco2 and carbonate δ13C in an Earth system model to unravel the history of carbon emissions and sources across the EPME. We infer a transition from a CO2 source with a thermogenic carbon isotopic signature associated with a slower emission rate to a heavier, more mantle-dominated volcanic source with an increased rate of emissions. This implies that the CO2 degassing style changed as the Siberian Traps emplacement evolved, which is consistent with geochemical proxy records. Carbon cycle feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystem disturbances may have further amplified the warming and the severity of marine extinctions.

What the geological past can tell us about the future of the ocean's twilight zone.

Paleontological reconstructions of plankton community structure during warm periods of the Cenozoic (last 66 million years) reveal that deep-dwelling 'twilight zone' (200-1000 m) plankton were less abundant and diverse, and lived much closer to the surface, than in colder, more recent climates. We suggest that this is a consequence of temperature's role in controlling the rate that sinking organic matter is broken down and metabolized by bacteria, a process that occurs faster at warmer temperatures. In a warmer ocean, a smaller fraction of organic matter reaches the ocean interior, affecting food supply and dissolved oxygen availability at depth. Using an Earth system model that has been evaluated against paleo observations, we illustrate how anthropogenic warming may impact future carbon cycling and twilight zone ecology. Our findings suggest that significant changes are already underway, and without strong emissions mitigation, widespread ecological disruption in the twilight zone is likely by 2100, with effects spanning millennia thereafter.

Why the Early Paleozoic was intrinsically prone to marine extinction.

The geological record of marine animal biodiversity reflects the interplay between changing rates of speciation versus extinction. Compared to mass extinctions, background extinctions have received little attention. To disentangle the different contributions of global climate state, continental configuration, and atmospheric oxygen concentration (pO2) to variations in background extinction rates, we drive an animal physiological model with the environmental outputs from an Earth system model across intervals spanning the past 541 million years. We find that climate and continental configuration combined to make extinction susceptibility an order of magnitude higher during the Early Paleozoic than during the rest of the Phanerozoic, consistent with extinction rates derived from paleontological databases. The high extinction susceptibility arises in the model from the limited geographical range of marine organisms. It stands even when assuming present-day pO2, suggesting that increasing oxygenation through the Paleozoic is not necessary to explain why extinction rates apparently declined with time.