Secreted mutant calreticulins as rogue cytokines in myeloproliferative neoplasms.

Mutant calreticulin (CALR) proteins resulting from a -1/+2 frameshifting mutation of the CALR exon 9 carry a novel C-terminal amino acid sequence and drive the development of myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs). Mutant CALRs were shown to interact with and activate the thrombopoietin receptor (TpoR/MPL) in the same cell. We report that mutant CALR proteins are secreted and can be found in patient plasma at levels up to 160 ng/mL, with a mean of 25.64 ng/mL. Plasma mutant CALR is found in complex with soluble transferrin receptor 1 (sTFR1) that acts as a carrier protein and increases mutant CALR half-life. Recombinant mutant CALR proteins bound and activated the TpoR in cell lines and primary megakaryocytic progenitors from patients with mutated CALR in which they drive thrombopoietin-independent colony formation. Importantly, the CALR-sTFR1 complex remains functional for TpoR activation. By bioluminescence resonance energy transfer assay, we show that mutant CALR proteins produced in 1 cell can specifically interact in trans with the TpoR on a target cell. In comparison with cells that only carry TpoR, cells that carry both TpoR and mutant CALR are hypersensitive to exogenous mutant CALR proteins and respond to levels of mutant CALR proteins similar to those in patient plasma. This is consistent with CALR-mutated cells that expose TpoR carrying immature N-linked sugars at the cell surface. Thus, secreted mutant CALR proteins will act more specifically on the MPN clone. In conclusion, a chaperone, CALR, can turn into a rogue cytokine through somatic mutation of its encoding gene.

Whole-genome CRISPR screening identifies N-glycosylation as a genetic and therapeutic vulnerability in CALR-mutant MPNs.

Calreticulin (CALR) mutations are frequent, disease-initiating events in myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs). Although the biological mechanism by which CALR mutations cause MPNs has been elucidated, there currently are no clonally selective therapies for CALR-mutant MPNs. To identify unique genetic dependencies in CALR-mutant MPNs, we performed a whole-genome clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR) knockout depletion screen in mutant CALR-transformed hematopoietic cells. We found that genes in the N-glycosylation pathway (among others) were differentially depleted in mutant CALR-transformed cells as compared with control cells. Using a focused pharmacological in vitro screen targeting unique vulnerabilities uncovered in the CRISPR screen, we found that chemical inhibition of N-glycosylation impaired the growth of mutant CALR-transformed cells, through a reduction in MPL cell surface expression. We treated Calr-mutant knockin mice with the N-glycosylation inhibitor 2-deoxy-glucose (2-DG) and found a preferential sensitivity of Calr-mutant cells to 2-DG as compared with wild-type cells and normalization of key MPNs disease features. To validate our findings in primary human cells, we performed megakaryocyte colony-forming unit (CFU-MK) assays. We found that N-glycosylation inhibition significantly reduced CFU-MK formation in patient-derived CALR-mutant bone marrow as compared with bone marrow derived from healthy donors. In aggregate, our findings advance the development of clonally selective treatments for CALR-mutant MPNs.

Ropeginterferon phase 2 randomized study in low-risk polycythemia vera: 5-year drug survival and efficacy outcomes.

In patients with low-risk polycythemia vera, exposure to low-dose Ropeginterferon alfa-2b (Ropeg) 100 µg every 2 weeks for 2 years was more effective than the standard treatment of therapeutic phlebotomy in maintaining target hematocrit (HCT) (< 45%) with a reduction in the need for phlebotomy without disease progression. In the present paper, we analyzed drug survival, defined as a surrogate measure of the efficacy, safety, adherence, and tolerability of Ropeg in patients followed up to 5 years. During the first 2 years, Ropeg and phlebotomy-only (Phl-O) were discontinued in 33% and 70% of patients, respectively, for lack of response (12 in the Ropeg arm vs. 34 in the Phl-O arm) or adverse events (6 vs. 0) and withdrawal of consent in (3 vs. 10). Thirty-six Ropeg responders continued the drug for up to 3 years, and the probability of drug survival after a median of 3.15 years was 59%. Notably, the primary composite endpoint was maintained in 97%, 94%, and 94% of patients still on drug at 3, 4, and 5 years, respectively, and 60% of cases were phlebotomy-free. Twenty-three of 63 Phl-O patients (37%) failed the primary endpoint and were crossed over to Ropeg; among the risk factors for this failure, the need for more than three bloodletting procedures in the first 6 months emerged as the most important determinant. In conclusion, to improve the effectiveness of Ropeg, we suggest increasing the dose and using it earlier driven by high phlebotomy need in the first 6 months post-diagnosis.

Novel drivers and modifiers of MPL-dependent oncogenic transformation identified by deep mutational scanning.

The single transmembrane domain (TMD) of the human thrombopoietin receptor (TpoR/myeloproliferative leukemia [MPL] protein), encoded by exon 10 of the MPL gene, is a hotspot for somatic mutations associated with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs). Approximately 6% and 14% of JAK2 V617F- essential thrombocythemia and primary myelofibrosis patients, respectively, have "canonical" MPL exon 10 driver mutations W515L/K/R/A or S505N, which generate constitutively active receptors and consequent loss of Tpo dependence. Other "noncanonical" MPL exon 10 mutations have also been identified in patients, both alone and in combination with canonical mutations, but, in almost all cases, their functional consequences and relevance to disease are unknown. Here, we used a deep mutational scanning approach to evaluate all possible single amino acid substitutions in the human TpoR TMD for their ability to confer cytokine-independent growth in Ba/F3 cells. We identified all currently recognized driver mutations and 7 novel mutations that cause constitutive TpoR activation, and a much larger number of second-site mutations that enhance S505N-driven activation. We found examples of both of these categories in published and previously unpublished MPL exon 10 sequencing data from MPN patients, demonstrating that some, if not all, of the new mutations reported here represent likely drivers or modifiers of myeloproliferative disease.

Defective interaction of mutant calreticulin and SOCE in megakaryocytes from patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms.

Approximately one-fourth of patients with essential thrombocythemia or primary myelofibrosis carry a somatic mutation of the calreticulin gene (CALR), the gene encoding for calreticulin. A 52-bp deletion (type I mutation) and a 5-bp insertion (type II mutation) are the most frequent genetic lesions. The mechanism(s) by which a CALR mutation leads to a myeloproliferative phenotype has been clarified only in part. We studied the interaction between calreticulin and store-operated calcium (Ca2+) entry (SOCE) machinery in megakaryocytes (Mks) from healthy individuals and from patients with CALR-mutated myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs). In Mks from healthy subjects, binding of recombinant human thrombopoietin to c-Mpl induced the activation of signal transducer and activator of transcription 5, AKT, and extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1/2, determining inositol triphosphate-dependent Ca2+ release from the endoplasmic reticulum (ER). This resulted in the dissociation of the ER protein 57 (ERp57)-mediated complex between calreticulin and stromal interaction molecule 1 (STIM1), a protein of the SOCE machinery that leads to Ca2+ mobilization. In Mks from patients with CALR-mutated MPNs, defective interactions between mutant calreticulin, ERp57, and STIM1 activated SOCE and generated spontaneous cytosolic Ca2+ flows. In turn, this resulted in abnormal Mk proliferation that was reverted using a specific SOCE inhibitor. In summary, the abnormal SOCE regulation of Ca2+ flows in Mks contributes to the pathophysiology of CALR-mutated MPNs. In perspective, SOCE may represent a new therapeutic target to counteract Mk proliferation and its clinical consequences in MPNs.

Arterial thrombosis in Philadelphia-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms predicts second cancer: a case-control study.

Patients with Philadelphia-negative myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN) are prone to the development of second cancers, but the factors associated with these events have been poorly explored. In an international nested case-control study, we recruited 647 patients with carcinoma, nonmelanoma skin cancer, hematological second cancer, and melanoma diagnosed concurrently or after MPN diagnosis. Up to 3 control patients without a history of cancer and matched with each case for center, sex, age at MPN diagnosis, date of diagnosis, and MPN disease duration were included (n = 1234). Cases were comparable to controls for MPN type, driver mutations and cardiovascular risk factors. The frequency of thrombosis preceding MPN was similar for cases and controls (P = .462). Thrombotic events after MPN and before second cancer were higher in cases than in controls (11.6% vs 8.1%; P = .013), because of a higher proportion of arterial thromboses (6.2% vs 3.7%; P = .015). After adjustment for confounders, the occurrence of arterial thrombosis remained independently associated with the risk of carcinoma (odds ratio, 1.97; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-3.41), suggesting that MPN patients experiencing arterial events after MPN diagnosis deserve careful clinical surveillance for early detection of carcinoma. This study was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as NCT03745378.

PD-L1 overexpression correlates with JAK2-V617F mutational burden and is associated with 9p uniparental disomy in myeloproliferative neoplasms.

Myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) are chronic stem cell disorders characterized by enhanced proliferation of myeloid cells, immune deregulation, and drug resistance. JAK2 somatic mutations drive the disease in 50-60% and CALR mutations in 25-30% of cases. Published data suggest that JAK2-V617F-mutated MPN cells express the resistance-related checkpoint PD-L1. By applying RNA-sequencing on granulocytes of 113 MPN patients, we demonstrate that PD-L1 expression is highest among polycythemia vera patients and that PD-L1 expression correlates with JAK2-V617F mutational burden (R = 0.52; p < .0001). Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays showed that chromosome 9p uniparental disomy (UPD) covers both PD-L1 and JAK2 in all MPN patients examined. MPN cells in JAK2-V617F-positive patients expressed higher levels of PD-L1 if 9p UPD was present compared to when it was absent (p < .0001). Moreover, haplotype-based association analyses provided evidence for germline genetic factors at PD-L1 locus contributing to MPN susceptibility independently of the previously described GGCC risk haplotype. We also found that PD-L1 is highly expressed on putative CD34+ CD38- disease-initiating neoplastic stem cells (NSC) in both JAK2 and CALR-mutated MPN. PD-L1 overexpression decreased upon exposure to JAK2 blockers and BRD4-targeting agents, suggesting a role for JAK2-STAT5-signaling and BRD4 in PD-L1 expression. Whether targeting of PD-L1 can overcome NSC resistance in MPN remains to be elucidated in forthcoming studies.

Mutational landscape of the transcriptome offers putative targets for immunotherapy of myeloproliferative neoplasms.

Ph-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are hematological cancers that can be subdivided into entities with distinct clinical features. Somatic mutations in JAK2, CALR, and MPL have been described as drivers of the disease, together with a variable landscape of nondriver mutations. Despite detailed knowledge of disease mechanisms, targeted therapies effective enough to eliminate MPN cells are still missing. In this study of 113 MPN patients, we aimed to comprehensively characterize the mutational landscape of the granulocyte transcriptome using RNA sequencing data and subsequently examine the applicability of immunotherapeutic strategies for MPN patients. Following implementation of customized workflows and data filtering, we identified a total of 13 (12/13 novel) gene fusions, 231 nonsynonymous single nucleotide variants, and 21 insertions and deletions in 106 of 113 patients. We found a high frequency of SF3B1-mutated primary myelofibrosis patients (14%) with distinct 3' splicing patterns, many of these with a protein-altering potential. Finally, from all mutations detected, we generated a virtual peptide library and used NetMHC to predict 149 unique neoantigens in 62% of MPN patients. Peptides from CALR and MPL mutations provide a rich source of neoantigens as a result of their unique ability to bind many common MHC class I molecules. Finally, we propose that mutations derived from splicing defects present in SF3B1-mutated patients may offer an unexplored neoantigen repertoire in MPNs. We validated 35 predicted peptides to be strong MHC class I binders through direct binding of predicted peptides to MHC proteins in vitro. Our results may serve as a resource for personalized vaccine or adoptive cell-based therapy development.

Myeloproliferative and lymphoproliferative disorders: State of the art.

Myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs), including polycythemia vera (PV), essential thrombocythemia (ET), and primary myelofibrosis (PMF), are clonal disorders complicated mainly by vascular events and transformation to myelofibrosis (for PV and ET) or leukemia. Although secondary malignancies, in particular, lymphoproliferative disorders (LPNs), are rare, they occur at a higher frequency than found in the general population, and there has been recent scientific discussion regarding a hypothetical relationship between treatment with JAK inhibitors in MPN and the risk of development of LPN. This has prompted increased interest regarding the coexistence of MPN and LPN. This review focuses on the role of JAK2 and the JAK/STAT pathway in MPN and LPN, whether there is a role for the genetic background in the occurrence of both MPN and LPN and whether there is a role for cytoreductive drugs in the occurrence of both MPN and LPN. Furthermore, whether an increased risk of lymphoma development is limited to patients who receive the JAK inhibitor ruxolitinib, is a more general phenomenon that occurs following JAK1/2 inhibition or is associated with preferential JAK1 or JAK2 targeting is discussed.

Impaired virus-specific T cell responses in patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms treated with ruxolitinib.

Ruxolitinib is effective in myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) but can cause reactivation of silent infections. We aimed at evaluating viral load and T-cell responses to human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) in a cohort of 25 MPN patients treated with ruxolitinib. EBV-DNA and HCMV-DNA were quantified monthly using real-time polimerase chain reaction (PCR) on peripheral blood samples, and T-cell subsets were analyzed by flowcytometry. HCMV and EBV-directed T-cell responses were evaluated using the IFN-γ ELISPOT assay. Most patients had CD4+ and/or CD8+ T-cells below the normal range; these reductions were related to the duration of ruxolitinib treatment. In fact, reduced T-lymphocytes' subsets were found in 93% of patients treated for ≥5 years and in 45% of those treated for <5 years (P = .021). The former also had lower median numbers of CD4+ and CD8+ cells. Subclinical reactivation of EBV and HCMV occurred in 76% and 8% of patients. We observed a trend to an inverse relationship between EBV and CMV-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell responses and viral load, and a trend to an inverse correlation with ruxolitinib dose. Therefore, our data suggest that the ruxolitinib treatment may interfere with immunosurveillance against EBV and HCMV.

Tracing the decision-making process for myelofibrosis: diagnosis, stratification, and management of ruxolitinib therapy in real-word practice.

The management of patients with myelofibrosis (MF) has dramatically changed since the introduction of ruxolitinib as a tailored treatment strategy. However, the perceptions about the use of this drug in clinical practice remain, at times, a matter of discussion. We conducted a survey about the diagnostic evaluation, prognostic assessment, and management of ruxolitinib in real-life clinical practice in 18 Italian hematology centers. At diagnosis, most hematologists do not use genetically or molecularly inspired score systems to assess prognosis, mainly due to scarce availability of next-generation sequencing (NGS) methodology, with NGS conversely reserved only for a subset of lower-risk MF patients with the aim of possibly improving the treatment strategy. Some common points in the management of ruxolitinib were 1) clinical triggers for ruxolitinib therapy, regardless of risk category; 2) evaluation of infectious risk before the starting of the drug; and 3) schedule of monitoring during the first 12 weeks with the need, in some instances, of supportive treatment. Further development of international recommendations and insights will allow the achievement of common criteria for the management of ruxolitinib in MF, before and after treatment, and for the definition of response and failure.

Splanchnic vein thromboses associated with myeloproliferative neoplasms: An international, retrospective study on 518 cases.

Myeloproliferative Neoplasms (MPN) course can be complicated by thrombosis involving unusual sites as the splanchnic veins (SVT). Their management is challenging, given their composite vascular risk. We performed a retrospective, cohort study in the framework of the International Working Group for MPN Research and Treatment (IWG-MRT), and AIRC-Gruppo Italiano Malattie Mieloproliferative (AGIMM). A total of 518 MPN-SVT cases were collected and compared with 1628 unselected, control MPN population, matched for disease subtype. Those with MPN-SVT were younger (median 44 years) and enriched in females compared to controls; PV (37.1%) and ET (34.4%) were the most frequent diagnoses. JAK2V617F mutation was highly prevalent (90.2%), and 38.6% of cases had an additional hypercoagulable disorder. SVT recurrence rate was 1.6 per 100 patient-years. Vitamin K-antagonists (VKA) halved the incidence of recurrence (OR 0.48), unlike cytoreduction (OR 0.96), and were not associated with overall or gastrointestinal bleeding in multivariable analysis. Esophageal varices were the only independent predictor for major bleeding (OR 17.4). Among MPN-SVT, risk of subsequent vascular events was skewed towards venous thromboses compared to controls. However, MPN-SVT clinical course was overall benign: SVT were enriched in PMF with lower IPSS, resulting in significantly longer survival than controls; survival was not affected in PV and slightly reduced in ET. MPN-U with SVT (n = 55) showed a particularly indolent phenotype, with no signs of disease evolution. In the to-date largest, contemporary cohort of MPN-SVT, VKA were confirmed effective in preventing recurrence, unlike cytoreduction, and safe; the major risk factor for bleeding was esophageal varices that therefore represent a major therapeutic target.

Second cancers in MPN: Survival analysis from an international study.

One out of ten patients with Philadelphia-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) develop a second cancer (SC): in such patients we aimed at assessing the survival impact of SC itself and of MPN-specific therapies. Data were therefore extracted from an international nested case-control study, recruiting 798 patients with SC diagnosed concurrently or after the MPN. Overall, 2995 person-years (PYs) were accumulated and mortality rate (MR) since SC diagnosis was 5.9 (5.1-6.9) deaths for every 100 PYs. A "poor prognosis" SC (stomach, esophagus, liver, pancreas, lung, ovary, head-and-neck or nervous system, osteosarcomas, multiple myeloma, aggressive lymphoma, acute leukemia) was reported in 26.3% of the patients and was the cause of death in 65% of them (MR 11.0/100 PYs). In contrast, patients with a "non-poor prognosis" SC (NPPSC) incurred a MR of 4.6/100 PYs: 31% of the deaths were attributed to SC and 15% to MPN evolution. At multivariable analysis, death after SC diagnosis was independently predicted (HR and 95% CI) by patient age greater than 70 years (2.68; 1.88-3.81), the SC prognostic group (2.57; 1.86-3.55), SC relapse (1.53; 10.6-2.21), MPN evolution (2.72; 1.84-4.02), anemia at SC diagnosis (2.32; 1.49-3.59), exposure to hydroxyurea (1.89; 1.26-2.85) and to ruxolitinib (3.63; 1.97-6.71). Aspirin was protective for patients with a NPPSC (0.60; 0.38-0.95). In conclusion, SC is a relevant cause of death competing with MPN evolution. Prospective data are awaited to confirm the role of cytoreductive and anti-platelet drugs in modulating patient survival after the occurrence of a SC.

The Genetic Basis of Primary Myelofibrosis and Its Clinical Relevance.

Among classical BCR-ABL-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN), primary myelofibrosis (PMF) is the most aggressive subtype from a clinical standpoint, posing a great challenge to clinicians. Whilst the biological consequences of the three MPN driver gene mutations (JAK2, CALR, and MPL) have been well described, recent data has shed light on the complex and dynamic structure of PMF, that involves competing disease subclones, sequentially acquired genomic events, mostly in genes that are recurrently mutated in several myeloid neoplasms and in clonal hematopoiesis, and biological interactions between clonal hematopoietic stem cells and abnormal bone marrow niches. These observations may contribute to explain the wide heterogeneity in patients' clinical presentation and prognosis, and support the recent effort to include molecular information in prognostic scoring systems used for therapeutic decision-making, leading to promising clinical translation. In this review, we aim to address the topic of PMF molecular genetics, focusing on four questions: (1) what is the role of mutations on disease pathogenesis? (2) what is their impact on patients' clinical phenotype? (3) how do we integrate gene mutations in the risk stratification process? (4) how do we take advantage of molecular genetics when it comes to treatment decisions?

A journey through infectious risk associated with ruxolitinib.

Ruxolitinib has proved to be effective for the treatment of patients with myelofibrosis (either primary or secondary) and polycythaemia vera, and its approval led to a significant change in the current treatment algorithm. Despite its efficacy and beyond its well described haematological toxicity, a peculiar immunosuppressive effect emerged as our clinical experience grew, both within and outside of a clinical trial setting. Definite and negative interactions with multiple pathways of the immune system of patients have been reported so far, involving both adaptive and innate immune responses. These pathophysiological mechanisms may contribute to the increased risk of reactivation of silent infections (e.g., tuberculosis, hepatitis B virus and varicella zoster virus) that have been associated with the drug. Even though such infectious events may be fatal or may lead to significant impairment of organ function, compromising the eligibility of patients for an allotransplant procedure, there are no dedicated guidelines that may help us in assessing and managing the risk of developing serious infections. On this basis, our aim for the present work was to review the current knowledge on the pathophysiological mechanisms through which ruxolitinib may exert its immunosuppressive effect, and to illustrate our personal approach to the management of three peculiar clinical scenarios, for which a risk-based algorithm is suggested.

Diagnosis, risk stratification, and response evaluation in classical myeloproliferative neoplasms.

Philadelphia-negative classical myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) include polycythemia vera (PV), essential thrombocythemia (ET), and primary myelofibrosis (PMF). The 2016 revision of the WHO Classification of Tumours of Haematopoietic and Lymphoid Tissues includes new criteria for the diagnosis of these disorders. Somatic mutations in the 3 driver genes, that is, JAK2, CALR, and MPL, represent major diagnostic criteria in combination with hematologic and morphological abnormalities. PV is characterized by erythrocytosis with suppressed endogenous erythropoietin production, bone marrow panmyelosis, and JAK2 mutation. Thrombocytosis, bone marrow megakaryocytic proliferation, and presence of JAK2, CALR, or MPL mutation are the main diagnostic criteria for ET. PMF is characterized by bone marrow megakaryocytic proliferation, reticulin and/or collagen fibrosis, and presence of JAK2, CALR, or MPL mutation. Prefibrotic myelofibrosis represents an early phase of myelofibrosis, and is characterized by granulocytic/megakaryocytic proliferation and lack of reticulin fibrosis in the bone marrow. The genomic landscape of MPNs is more complex than initially thought and involves several mutant genes beyond the 3 drivers. Comutated, myeloid tumor-suppressor genes contribute to phenotypic variability, phenotypic shifts, and progression to more aggressive disorders. Patients with myeloid neoplasms are at variable risk of vascular complications, including arterial or venous thrombosis and bleeding. Current prognostic models are mainly based on clinical and hematologic parameters, but innovative models that include genetic data are being developed for both clinical and trial settings. In perspective, molecular profiling of MPNs might also allow for accurate evaluation and monitoring of response to innovative drugs that target the mutant clone.

Presentation and outcome of patients with 2016 WHO diagnosis of prefibrotic and overt primary myelofibrosis.

The 2016 revision of the World Health Organization (WHO) classification of myeloproliferative neoplasms defines 2 stages of primary myelofibrosis (PMF): prefibrotic/early (pre-PMF) and overt fibrotic (overt PMF) phase. In this work, we studied the clinical and molecular features of patients belonging to these categories of PMF. The diagnosis of 661 PMF patients with a bone marrow biopsy at presentation was revised according to modern criteria; clinical information and annotation of somatic mutations in both driver and selected nondriver myeloid genes were available for all patients. Compared with pre-PMF, overt PMF was enriched in patients with anemia, thrombocytopenia, leukopenia, higher blast count, symptoms, large splenomegaly, and unfavorable karyotype. The different types of driver mutations were similarly distributed between the 2 categories, whereas selected mutations comprising the high mutation risk (HMR) category (any mutations in ASXL1, SRSF2, IDH1/2, EZH2) were more represented in overt PMF. More patients with overt PMF were in higher International Prognostic Scoring System risk categories at diagnosis, and the frequency increased during follow-up, suggesting greater propensity to disease progression compared with pre-PMF. Median survival was significantly shortened in overt PMF (7.2 vs 17.6 years), with triple negativity for driver mutations and presence of HMR mutations representing independent predictors of unfavorable outcome. The findings of this "real-life" study indicate that adherence to 2016 WHO criteria allows for identification of 2 distinct categories of patients with PMF where increased grades of fibrosis are associated with more pronounced disease manifestations, adverse mutation profile, and worse outcome, overall suggesting they might represent a phenotypic continuum.

Clinical significance of somatic mutation in unexplained blood cytopenia.

Unexplained blood cytopenias, in particular anemia, are often found in older persons. The relationship between these cytopenias and myeloid neoplasms like myelodysplastic syndromes is currently poorly defined. We studied a prospective cohort of patients with unexplained cytopenia with the aim to estimate the predictive value of somatic mutations for identifying subjects with, or at risk of, developing a myeloid neoplasm. The study included a learning cohort of 683 consecutive patients investigated for unexplained cytopenia, and a validation cohort of 190 patients referred for suspected myeloid neoplasm. Using granulocyte DNA, we looked for somatic mutations in 40 genes that are recurrently mutated in myeloid malignancies. Overall, 435/683 patients carried a somatic mutation in at least 1 of these genes. Carrying a somatic mutation with a variant allele frequency ≥0.10, or carrying 2 or more mutations, had a positive predictive value for diagnosis of myeloid neoplasm equal to 0.86 and 0.88, respectively. Spliceosome gene mutations and comutation patterns involving TET2, DNMT3A, or ASXL1 had positive predictive values for myeloid neoplasm ranging from 0.86 to 1.0. Within subjects with inconclusive diagnostic findings, carrying 1 or more somatic mutations was associated with a high probability of developing a myeloid neoplasm during follow-up (hazard ratio = 13.9, P < .001). The predictive values of mutation analysis were confirmed in the independent validation cohort. The findings of this study indicate that mutation analysis on peripheral blood granulocytes may significantly improve the current diagnostic approach to unexplained cytopenia and more generally the diagnostic accuracy of myeloid neoplasms.