Nature-based solutions are critical for putting Brazil on track towards net-zero emissions by 2050.

Most of the world's nations (around 130) have committed to reaching net-zero carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, yet robust policies rarely underpin these ambitions. To investigate whether existing and expected national policies will allow Brazil to meet its net-zero GHG emissions pledge by 2050, we applied a detailed regional integrated assessment modelling approach. This included quantifying the role of nature-based solutions, such as the protection and restoration of ecosystems, and engineered solutions, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Our results highlight ecosystem protection as the most critical cost-effective climate mitigation measure for Brazil, whereas relying heavily on costly and not-mature-yet engineered solutions will jeopardise Brazil's chances of achieving its net-zero pledge by mid-century. We show that the full implementation of Brazil's Forest Code (FC), a key policy for emission reduction in Brazil, would be enough for the country to achieve its short-term climate targets up to 2030. However, it would reduce the gap to net-zero GHG emissions by 38% by 2050. The FC, combined with zero legal deforestation and additional large-scale ecosystem restoration, would reduce this gap by 62% by mid-century, keeping Brazil on a clear path towards net-zero GHG emissions by around 2040. While some level of deployment of negative emissions technologies will be needed for Brazil to achieve and sustain its net-zero pledge, we show that the more mitigation measures from the land-use sector, the less costly engineered solutions from the energy sector will be required. Our analysis underlines the urgent need for Brazil to go beyond existing policies to help fight climate emergency, to align its short- and long-term climate targets, and to build climate resilience while curbing biodiversity loss.

Getting the message right on nature-based solutions to climate change.

Nature-based solutions (NbS)-solutions to societal challenges that involve working with nature-have recently gained popularity as an integrated approach that can address climate change and biodiversity loss, while supporting sustainable development. Although well-designed NbS can deliver multiple benefits for people and nature, much of the recent limelight has been on tree planting for carbon sequestration. There are serious concerns that this is distracting from the need to rapidly phase out use of fossil fuels and protect existing intact ecosystems. There are also concerns that the expansion of forestry framed as a climate change mitigation solution is coming at the cost of carbon rich and biodiverse native ecosystems and local resource rights. Here, we discuss the promise and pitfalls of the NbS framing and its current political traction, and we present recommendations on how to get the message right. We urge policymakers, practitioners and researchers to consider the synergies and trade-offs associated with NbS and to follow four guiding principles to enable NbS to provide sustainable benefits to society: (1) NbS are not a substitute for the rapid phase out of fossil fuels; (2) NbS involve a wide range of ecosystems on land and in the sea, not just forests; (3) NbS are implemented with the full engagement and consent of Indigenous Peoples and local communities in a way that respects their cultural and ecological rights; and (4) NbS should be explicitly designed to provide measurable benefits for biodiversity. Only by following these guidelines will we design robust and resilient NbS that address the urgent challenges of climate change and biodiversity loss, sustaining nature and people together, now and into the future.

Mapping the effectiveness of nature-based solutions for climate change adaptation.

Nature-based solutions (NbS) to climate change currently have considerable political traction. However, national intentions to deploy NbS have yet to be fully translated into evidence-based targets and action on the ground. To enable NbS policy and practice to be better informed by science, we produced the first global systematic map of evidence on the effectiveness of nature-based interventions for addressing the impacts of climate change and hydrometeorological hazards on people. Most of the interventions in natural or semi-natural ecosystems were reported to have ameliorated adverse climate impacts. Conversely, interventions involving created ecosystems (e.g., afforestation) were associated with trade-offs; such studies primarily reported reduced soil erosion or increased vegetation cover but lower water availability, although this evidence was geographically restricted. Overall, studies reported more synergies than trade-offs between reduced climate impacts and broader ecological, social, and climate change mitigation outcomes. In addition, nature-based interventions were most often shown to be as effective or more so than alternative interventions for addressing climate impacts. However, there were substantial gaps in the evidence base. Notably, there were few studies of the cost-effectiveness of interventions compared to alternatives and few integrated assessments considering broader social and ecological outcomes. There was also a bias in evidence toward the Global North, despite communities in the Global South being generally more vulnerable to climate impacts. To build resilience to climate change worldwide, it is imperative that we protect and harness the benefits that nature can provide, which can only be done effectively if informed by a strengthened evidence base.

Species coexistence and the dynamics of phenotypic evolution in adaptive radiation.

Interactions between species can promote evolutionary divergence of ecological traits and social signals, a process widely assumed to generate species differences in adaptive radiation. However, an alternative view is that lineages typically interact when relatively old, by which time selection for divergence is weak and potentially exceeded by convergent selection acting on traits mediating interspecific competition. Few studies have tested these contrasting predictions across large radiations, or by controlling for evolutionary time. Thus the role of species interactions in driving broad-scale patterns of trait divergence is unclear. Here we use phylogenetic estimates of divergence times to show that increased trait differences among coexisting lineages of ovenbirds (Furnariidae) are explained by their greater evolutionary age in relation to non-interacting lineages, and that--when these temporal biases are accounted for--the only significant effect of coexistence is convergence in a social signal (song). Our results conflict with the conventional view that coexistence promotes trait divergence among co-occurring organisms at macroevolutionary scales, and instead provide evidence that species interactions can drive phenotypic convergence across entire radiations, a pattern generally concealed by biases in age.

Range-wide spatial mapping reveals convergent character displacement of bird song.

A long-held view in evolutionary biology is that character displacement generates divergent phenotypes in closely related coexisting species to avoid the costs of hybridization or ecological competition, whereas an alternative possibility is that signals of dominance or aggression may instead converge to facilitate coexistence among ecological competitors. Although this counterintuitive process-termed convergent agonistic character displacement-is supported by recent theoretical and empirical studies, the extent to which it drives spatial patterns of trait evolution at continental scales remains unclear. By modelling the variation in song structure of two ecologically similar species of Hypocnemis antbird across western Amazonia, we show that their territorial signals converge such that trait similarity peaks in the sympatric zone, where intense interspecific territoriality between these taxa has previously been demonstrated. We also use remote sensing data to show that signal convergence is not explained by environmental gradients and is thus unlikely to evolve by sensory drive (i.e. acoustic adaptation to the sound transmission properties of habitats). Our results suggest that agonistic character displacement driven by interspecific competition can generate spatial patterns opposite to those predicted by classic character displacement theory, and highlight the potential role of social selection in shaping geographical variation in signal phenotypes of ecological competitors.

Multi-modal signal evolution in birds: re-examining a standard proxy for sexual selection.

Sexual selection is proposed to be an important driver of speciation and phenotypic diversification in animal systems. However, previous phylogenetic tests have produced conflicting results, perhaps because they have focused on a single signalling modality (visual ornaments), whereas sexual selection may act on alternative signalling modalities (e.g. acoustic ornaments). Here, we compile phenotypic data from 259 avian sister species pairs to assess the relationship between visible plumage dichromatism-a standard index of sexual selection in birds-and macroevolutionary divergence in the other major avian signalling modality: song. We find evidence for a strong negative relationship between the degree of plumage dichromatism and divergence in song traits, which remains significant even when accounting for other key factors, including habitat type, ecological divergence and interspecific interactions. This negative relationship is opposite to the pattern expected by a straightforward interpretation of the sexual selection-diversification hypothesis, whereby higher levels of dichromatism indicating strong sexual selection should be related to greater levels of mating signal divergence regardless of signalling modality. Our findings imply a 'trade-off' between the elaboration of visual ornaments and the diversification of acoustic mating signals, and suggest that the effects of sexual selection on diversification can only be determined by considering multiple alternative signalling modalities.

Sexual selection, speciation and constraints on geographical range overlap in birds.

The role of sexual selection as a driver of speciation remains unresolved, not least because we lack a clear empirical understanding of its influence on different phases of the speciation process. Here, using data from 1306 recent avian speciation events, we show that plumage dichromatism (a proxy for sexual selection) does not predict diversification rates, but instead explains the rate at which young lineages achieve geographical range overlap. Importantly, this effect is only significant when range overlap is narrow (< 20%). These findings are consistent with a 'differential fusion' model wherein sexual selection reduces rates of fusion among lineages undergoing secondary contact, facilitating parapatry or limited co-existence, whereas more extensive sympatry is contingent on additional factors such as ecological differentiation. Our results provide a more mechanistic explanation for why sexual selection appears to drive early stages of speciation while playing a seemingly limited role in determining broad-scale patterns of diversification.

Species interactions and the structure of complex communication networks.

A universal challenge faced by animal species is the need to communicate effectively against a backdrop of heterospecific signals. It is often assumed that this need results in signal divergence to minimize interference among community members, yet previous support for this idea is mixed, and few studies have tested the opposing hypothesis that interactions among competing species promote widespread convergence in signaling regimes. Using a null model approach to analyze acoustic signaling in 307 species of Amazonian birds, we show that closely related lineages signal together in time and space and that acoustic signals given in temporal or spatial proximity are more similar in design than expected by chance. These results challenge the view that multispecies choruses are structured by temporal, spatial, or acoustic partitioning and instead suggest that social communication between competing species can fundamentally organize signaling assemblages, leading to the opposite pattern of clustering in signals and signaling behavior.

Biodiversity in the Anthropocene: prospects and policy.

Meeting the ever-increasing needs of the Earth's human population without excessively reducing biological diversity is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity, suggesting that new approaches to biodiversity conservation are required. One idea rapidly gaining momentum-as well as opposition-is to incorporate the values of biodiversity into decision-making using economic methods. Here, we develop several lines of argument for how biodiversity might be valued, building on recent developments in natural science, economics and science-policy processes. Then we provide a synoptic guide to the papers in this special feature, summarizing recent research advances relevant to biodiversity valuation and management. Current evidence suggests that more biodiverse systems have greater stability and resilience, and that by maximizing key components of biodiversity we maximize an ecosystem's long-term value. Moreover, many services and values arising from biodiversity are interdependent, and often poorly captured by standard economic models. We conclude that economic valuation approaches to biodiversity conservation should (i) account for interdependency and (ii) complement rather than replace traditional approaches. To identify possible solutions, we present a framework for understanding the foundational role of hard-to-quantify 'biodiversity services' in sustaining the value of ecosystems to humanity, and then use this framework to highlight new directions for pure and applied research. In most cases, clarifying the links between biodiversity and ecosystem services, and developing effective policy and practice for managing biodiversity, will require a genuinely interdisciplinary approach.

Widespread correlations between climatic niche evolution and species diversification in birds.

The adaptability of species' climatic niches can influence the dynamics of colonization and gene flow across climatic gradients, potentially increasing the likelihood of speciation or reducing extinction in the face of environmental change. However, previous comparative studies have tested these ideas using geographically, taxonomically and ecologically restricted samples, yielding mixed results, and thus the processes linking climatic niche evolution with diversification remain poorly understood. Focusing on birds, the largest and most widespread class of terrestrial vertebrates, we test whether variation in species diversification among clades is correlated with rates of climatic niche evolution and the extent to which these patterns are modified by underlying gradients in biogeography and species' ecology. We quantified climatic niches, latitudinal distribution and ecological traits for 7657 (˜75%) bird species based on geographical range polygons and then used Bayesian phylogenetic analyses to test whether niche evolution was related to species richness and rates of diversification across genus- and family-level clades. We found that the rate of climatic niche evolution has a positive linear relationship with both species richness and diversification rate at two different taxonomic levels (genus and family). Furthermore, this positive association between labile climatic niches and diversification was detected regardless of variation in clade latitude or key ecological traits. Our findings suggest either that rapid adaptation to unoccupied areas of climatic niche space promotes avian diversification, or that diversification promotes adaptation. Either way, we propose that climatic niche evolution is a fundamental process regulating the link between climate and biodiversity at global scales, irrespective of the geographical and ecological context of speciation and extinction.

Species interactions regulate the collapse of biodiversity and ecosystem function in tropical forest fragments.

Competitive interactions among species with similar ecological niches are known to regulate the assembly of biological communities. However, it is not clear whether such forms of competition can predict the collapse of communities and associated shifts in ecosystem function in the face of environmental change. Here, we use phylogenetic and functional trait data to test whether communities of two ecologically important guilds of tropical birds (frugivores and insectivores) are structured by species interactions in a fragmented Amazonian forest landscape. In both guilds, we found that forest patch size, quality, and degree of isolation influence the phylogenetic and functional trait structure of communities, with small, degraded, or isolated forest patches having an increased signature of competition (i.e., phylogenetic and functional trait overdispersion in relation to null models). These results suggest that local extinctions in the context of fragmentation are nonrandom, with a consistent bias toward more densely occupied regions of niche space. We conclude that the loss of biodiversity in fragmented landscapes is mediated by niche-based competitive interactions among species, with potentially far-reaching implications for key ecosystem processes, including seed dispersal and plant damage by phytophagous insects.

Sexual selection accelerates signal evolution during speciation in birds.

Sexual selection is proposed to be an important driver of diversification in animal systems, yet previous tests of this hypothesis have produced mixed results and the mechanisms involved remain unclear. Here, we use a novel phylogenetic approach to assess the influence of sexual selection on patterns of evolutionary change during 84 recent speciation events across 23 passerine bird families. We show that elevated levels of sexual selection are associated with more rapid phenotypic divergence between related lineages, and that this effect is restricted to male plumage traits proposed to function in mate choice and species recognition. Conversely, we found no evidence that sexual selection promoted divergence in female plumage traits, or in male traits related to foraging and locomotion. These results provide strong evidence that female choice and male-male competition are dominant mechanisms driving divergence during speciation in birds, potentially linking sexual selection to the accelerated evolution of pre-mating reproductive isolation.

The latitudinal gradient in dispersal constraints: ecological specialisation drives diversification in tropical birds.

Physiological and behavioural constraints arising from ecological specialisation are proposed to limit gene flow and promote diversification in tropical lineages. In this study, we use phylogenetic analyses to test this idea in 739 Amazonian bird species. We show that patterns of species and subspecies richness are best predicted by a suite of avian specialisms common in tropical avifaunas but rare in the temperate zone. However, this only applied to niche traits associated with dispersal limitation rather than vagility. These findings are consistent with the view that diversity is promoted by more finely partitioned niches, although not simply by coevolutionary adaptation and niche packing as is often assumed. Instead, they suggest that diversification is driven by dispersal constraints, and that niches characterised by these constraints are biased towards tropical systems. We conclude that specialised tropical niches reduce the likelihood of dispersal across barriers, thereby increasing allopatric diversification and contributing to the latitudinal diversity gradient.

Harnessing the potential of nature-based solutions for mitigating and adapting to climate change.

Although many governments, financial institutions, and corporations are embracing nature-based solutions as part of their sustainability and net-zero carbon strategies, some nations, Indigenous peoples, local community groups, and grassroots organizations have rejected this term. This pushback is fueled by (i) critical uncertainties about when, where, how, and for whom nature-based solutions are effective and (ii) controversies surrounding their misuse in greenwashing, violations of human rights, and threats to biodiversity. To clarify how the scientific community can help address these issues, I provide an overview of recent research on the benefits and limits of nature-based solutions, including how they compare with technological approaches, and highlight critical areas for future research.

Evaluating artisanal fishing of globally threatened sharks and rays in the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh.

Sharks and rays are at risk of extinction globally. This reflects low resilience to increasing fishing pressure, exacerbated by habitat loss, climate change, increasing value in a trade and inadequate information leading to limited conservation actions. Artisanal fisheries in the Bay of Bengal of Bangladesh contribute to the high levels of global fishing pressure on elasmobranchs. However, it is one of the most data-poor regions of the world, and the diversity, occurrence and conservation needs of elasmobranchs in this region have not been adequately assessed. This study evaluated elasmobranch diversity, species composition, catch and trade within the artisanal fisheries to address this critical knowledge gap. Findings show that elasmobranch diversity in Bangladesh has previously been underestimated. In this study, over 160000 individual elasmobranchs were recorded through landing site monitoring, comprising 88 species (30 sharks and 58 rays) within 20 families and 35 genera. Of these, 54 are globally threatened according to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, with ten species listed as Critically Endangered and 22 species listed as Endangered. Almost 98% juvenile catch (69-99% for different species) for large species sand a decline in numbers of large individuals were documented, indicating unsustainable fisheries. Several previously common species were rarely landed, indicating potential population declines. The catch pattern showed seasonality and, in some cases, gear specificity. Overall, Bangladesh was found to be a significant contributor to shark and ray catches and trade in the Bay of Bengal region. Effective monitoring was not observed at the landing sites or processing centres, despite 29 species of elasmobranchs being protected by law, many of which were frequently landed. On this basis, a series of recommendations were provided for improving the conservation status of the elasmobranchs in this region. These include the need for improved taxonomic research, enhanced monitoring of elasmobranch stocks, and the highest protection level for threatened taxa. Alongside political will, enhancing national capacity to manage and rebuild elasmobranch stocks, coordinated regional management measures are essential.

Character displacement from the receiver's perspective: species and mate recognition despite convergent signals in suboscine birds.

Many social animals use long-distance signals to attract mates and defend territories. They face the twin challenges of discriminating between species to identify conspecific mates, and between individuals to recognize collaborators and competitors. It is therefore often assumed that long-distance signals are under strong selection for species-specificity and individual distinctiveness, and that this will drive character displacement when closely related species meet, particularly in noisy environments. However, the occurrence of signal stereotypy and convergence in rainforest species seems to contradict these ideas, and raises the question of whether receivers in these systems can recognize species or individuals by long-distance signals alone. Here, we test for acoustically mediated recognition in two sympatric antbird species that are known to have convergent songs. We show that male songs are stereotyped yet individually distinctive, and we use playback experiments to demonstrate that females can discriminate not only between conspecific and heterospecific males, but between mates and strangers. These findings provide clear evidence that stereotypy and convergence in male signals can be accommodated by fine tuning of perceptual abilities in female receivers, suggesting that the evolutionary forces driving divergent character displacement in animal signals are weaker than is typically assumed.

Harnessing employment-based social assistance programmes to scale up nature-based climate action.

As the severity of the triple challenges of global inequality, climate change and biodiversity loss becomes clearer, governments and international development institutions must find effective policy instruments to respond. We examine the potential of social assistance policies in this context. Social assistance refers to transfers to poor, vulnerable and marginalized groups to reduce their vulnerability and livelihood risks, and to enhance their rights and status. Substantial public funds support social assistance programmes globally. Collectively, lower- and middle-income countries spend approximately 1.5% of their GDP on social assistance annually. We focus on the potential of paid employment schemes to promote effective ecosystem stewardship. Available evidence suggests such programmes can offer multiple benefits in terms of improvements in local ecosystems and natural capital, carbon sequestration and local biodiversity conservation. We review evidence from three key case studies: in India (the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme), Ethiopia (the Productive Safety Nets Programme) and Mexico (the Temporary Employment Programme). We conclude that, to realize the potential of employment-based social assistance for ecosystem benefits it will be necessary to address two challenges: first, the weak design and maintenance of local public works outputs in many schemes, and second, the concern that social protection schemes may become less effective if they are overburdened with additional objectives. Overcoming these challenges requires an evolution of institutional systems for delivering social assistance to enable a more effective combination of social and environmental objectives. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Understanding the value and limits of nature-based solutions to climate change and other global challenges.

There is growing awareness that 'nature-based solutions' (NbS) can help to protect us from climate change impacts while slowing further warming, supporting biodiversity and securing ecosystem services. However, the potential of NbS to provide the intended benefits has not been rigorously assessed. There are concerns over their reliability and cost-effectiveness compared to engineered alternatives, and their resilience to climate change. Trade-offs can arise if climate mitigation policy encourages NbS with low biodiversity value, such as afforestation with non-native monocultures. This can result in maladaptation, especially in a rapidly changing world where biodiversity-based resilience and multi-functional landscapes are key. Here, we highlight the rise of NbS in climate policy-focusing on their potential for climate change adaptation as well as mitigation-and discuss barriers to their evidence-based implementation. We outline the major financial and governance challenges to implementing NbS at scale, highlighting avenues for further research. As climate policy turns increasingly towards greenhouse gas removal approaches such as afforestation, we stress the urgent need for natural and social scientists to engage with policy makers. They must ensure that NbS can achieve their potential to tackle both the climate and biodiversity crisis while also contributing to sustainable development. This will require systemic change in the way we conduct research and run our institutions. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions.

The rapid anthropogenic climate change that is being experienced in the early twenty-first century is intimately entwined with the health and functioning of the biosphere. Climate change is impacting ecosystems through changes in mean conditions and in climate variability, coupled with other associated changes such as increased ocean acidification and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. It also interacts with other pressures on ecosystems, including degradation, defaunation and fragmentation. There is a need to understand the ecological dynamics of these climate impacts, to identify hotspots of vulnerability and resilience and to identify management interventions that may assist biosphere resilience to climate change. At the same time, ecosystems can also assist in the mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change. The mechanisms, potential and limits of such nature-based solutions to climate change need to be explored and quantified. This paper introduces a thematic issue dedicated to the interaction between climate change and the biosphere. It explores novel perspectives on how ecosystems respond to climate change, how ecosystem resilience can be enhanced and how ecosystems can assist in addressing the challenge of a changing climate. It draws on a Royal Society-National Academy of Sciences Forum held in Washington DC in November 2018, where these themes and issues were discussed. We conclude by identifying some priorities for academic research and practical implementation, in order to maximize the potential for maintaining a diverse, resilient and well-functioning biosphere under the challenging conditions of the twenty-first century. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.