MultiToxPred 1.0: a novel comprehensive tool for predicting 27 classes of protein toxins using an ensemble machine learning approach.

Protein toxins are defense mechanisms and adaptations found in various organisms and microorganisms, and their use in scientific research as therapeutic candidates is gaining relevance due to their effectiveness and specificity against cellular targets. However, discovering these toxins is time-consuming and expensive. In silico tools, particularly those based on machine learning and deep learning, have emerged as valuable resources to address this challenge. Existing tools primarily focus on binary classification, determining whether a protein is a toxin or not, and occasionally identifying specific types of toxins. For the first time, we propose a novel approach capable of classifying protein toxins into 27 distinct categories based on their mode of action within cells. To accomplish this, we assessed multiple machine learning techniques and found that an ensemble model incorporating the Light Gradient Boosting Machine and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis algorithms exhibited the best performance. During the tenfold cross-validation on the training dataset, our model exhibited notable metrics: 0.840 accuracy, 0.827 F1 score, 0.836 precision, 0.840 sensitivity, and 0.989 AUC. In the testing stage, using an independent dataset, the model achieved 0.846 accuracy, 0.838 F1 score, 0.847 precision, 0.849 sensitivity, and 0.991 AUC. These results present a powerful next-generation tool called MultiToxPred 1.0, accessible through a web application. We believe that MultiToxPred 1.0 has the potential to become an indispensable resource for researchers, facilitating the efficient identification of protein toxins. By leveraging this tool, scientists can accelerate their search for these toxins and advance their understanding of their therapeutic potential.

Development of an Accessible and Scalable Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction Assay for Monkeypox Virus Detection.

During the 2022 monkeypox (MPX) outbreak, testing has been limited and results delayed, allowing ongoing transmission. Gold-standard quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) diagnostics are difficult to obtain. This research adapted the June 2022 CDC MPX qPCR assay for broad implementation. Validated using MPX stocks in a matrix with multiple sample types, MPX was detected with cycle threshold (Ct) values 17.46-35.59 and titer equivalents 8.01 × 106 to 2.45 × 100 plaque-forming unit (PFU)/mL. The detection limit was 3.59 PFU/mL. Sensitivity and specificity were both 100%. This qPCR assay can be quickly and broadly implemented in research and public health laboratories to increase diagnostic capacity amid the growing MPX outbreak.

Interferon activation status underlies higher antibody response to viral antigens in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus receiving no or light treatment.

OBJECTIVES: Infections have been proposed as an environmental risk factor for autoimmune disease. Responses to microbial antigens may be studied in vivo during vaccination. We therefore followed patients with SLE and controls during split-virion influenza vaccination to quantify antibody responses against viral antigens and associated cellular and proteome parameters. METHODS: Blood samples and clinical data were collected from female patients with SLE with no or HCQ and/or low-dose prednisolone treatment (n = 29) and age- and sex-matched healthy controls (n = 17). Vaccine-specific antibody titres were measured by ELISA and IFN-induced gene expression in monocytes by quantitative PCR. Serum proteins were measured by proximity extension assay and disease-associated symptoms were followed by questionnaires. RESULTS: The vaccine-specific antibody response was significantly higher in patients compared with controls and titres of IgG targeting the viral proteins were higher in patients than controls at both 1 and 3 months after immunization. Clinical disease symptoms and autoantibody titres remained unchanged throughout the study. Notably, a positive pre-vaccination mRNA-based IFN score was associated with a significantly higher vaccine-specific antibody response and with a broader profile of autoantibody specificities. Screening of serum protein biomarkers revealed higher levels of IFN-regulated proteins in patients compared with controls and that levels of such proteins correlated with the vaccine-specific IgG response, with C-C motif chemokine ligand 3 exhibiting the strongest association. CONCLUSION: Augmented antibody responses to viral antigens develop in patients with SLE on no or light treatment and associate with markers of type I IFN system activation at the RNA and protein levels.

Blood component utilization in COVID-19 patients in New York City: Transfusions do not follow the curve.

BACKGROUND: Blood suppliers and transfusion services have worked diligently to maintain an adequate blood supply during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our experience has shown that some COVID-19 inpatients require transfusion support; understanding this need is critical to blood product inventory management. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Hospital-wide and COVID-19 specific inpatient blood product utilization data were collected retrospectively for our network's two tertiary academic medical centers over a 9-week period (March 1, 2020-May 2, 2020), when most inpatients had COVID-19. Utilization data were merged with a COVID-19 patient database to investigate clinical demographic characteristics of transfused COVID-19 inpatients relative to non-transfused ones. RESULTS: Overall, 11 041 COVID-19 patients were admitted and 364 received blood product transfusions for an overall transfusion rate of 3.3%. COVID-19 patients received 1746 blood components in total, the majority of which were red blood cells. COVID-19 patients' weekly transfusion rate increased as the pandemic progressed, possibly reflecting their increased severity of illness. Transfusion was significantly associated with several indicators of severe disease, including mortality, intubation, thrombosis, longer hospital admission, lower hemoglobin and platelet nadirs, and longer prothrombin and activated partial thromboplastin times. As the pandemic progressed, institutional adherence to transfusion guidelines improved for RBC transfusions compared to prior year trends but did not improve for platelets or plasma. CONCLUSION: There is a need to closely monitor the blood product inventory and demand throughout the COVID-19 pandemic as patients' transfusion needs may increase over time. Daily or weekly trending of patients' clinical status and laboratory values may assist blood banks in inventory management.

Sociospatial ties and postdisaster reconstruction: An analysis of the assemblage in the mega-fire of Valparaíso.

Disasters affect sociospatial links in a dynamic and unstable meshwork of aspects that are reconfigured. In this sense, accounting for this complexity is central to analyze the transformation of the sociospatial linkage of the affected people and communities. Addressing from community environmental psychology, we propose the concept of assemblage to guide a situated reading of subjective, material, and community aspects present in a reconstruction process after a disaster. Following a qualitative methodology, using spatially referenced narrative interviews (n = 16) and thematic analysis, it is described how these links are presented in a community that lived the mega-fire of a part of the city of Valparaíso in Chile. The results describe that the experience of being a community is a variable flow within a process defined by an ever-emerging configuration of spatial, technological, personal, social, and sensory characteristics. We conclude by pointing out the qualities of the communities when considered from an assemblage perspective.

Clinical Performance of SARS-CoV-2 Molecular Tests.

Molecular testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the gold standard for diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but the clinical performance of these tests is still poorly understood, particularly with regard to disease course, patient-specific factors, and viral shedding. From 10 March to 1 May 2020, NewYork-Presbyterian laboratories performed 27,377 SARS-CoV-2 molecular assays from 22,338 patients. Repeat testing was performed for 3,432 patients, of which 2,413 had initial negative and 802 had initial positive results. Repeat-tested patients were more likely to have severe disease and low viral loads. The negative predictive value of the first-day result among repeat-tested patients was 81.3% The clinical sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 molecular assays was estimated between 58% and 96%, depending on the unknown number of false-negative results in single-tested patients. Conversion to negative was unlikely to occur before 15 to 20 days after initial testing or 20 to 30 days after the onset of symptoms, with 50% conversion occurring at 28 days after initial testing. Conversion from first-day negative to positive results increased linearly with each day of testing, reaching 25% probability in 20 days. Sixty patients fluctuated between positive and negative results over several weeks, suggesting that caution is needed when single-test results are acted upon. In summary, our study provides estimates of the clinical performance of SARS-CoV-2 molecular assays and suggests time frames for appropriate repeat testing, namely, 15 to 20 days after a positive test and the same day or next 2 days after a negative test for patients with high suspicion for COVID-19.

Bacteremia and Blood Culture Utilization during COVID-19 Surge in New York City.

A surge of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presenting to New York City hospitals in March 2020 led to a sharp increase in blood culture utilization, which overwhelmed the capacity of automated blood culture instruments. We sought to evaluate the utilization and diagnostic yield of blood cultures during the COVID-19 pandemic to determine prevalence and common etiologies of bacteremia and to inform a diagnostic approach to relieve blood culture overutilization. We performed a retrospective cohort analysis of 88,201 blood cultures from 28,011 patients at a multicenter network of hospitals within New York City to evaluate order volume, positivity rate, time to positivity, and etiologies of positive cultures in COVID-19. Ordering volume increased by 34.8% in the second half of March 2020 compared to the level in the first half of the month. The rate of bacteremia was significantly lower among COVID-19 patients (3.8%) than among COVID-19-negative patients (8.0%) and those not tested (7.1%) (P < 0.001). COVID-19 patients had a high proportion of organisms reflective of commensal skin microbiota, which, when excluded, reduced the bacteremia rate to 1.6%. More than 98% of all positive cultures were detected within 4 days of incubation. Bloodstream infections are very rare for COVID-19 patients, which supports the judicious use of blood cultures in the absence of compelling evidence for bacterial coinfection. Clear communication with ordering providers is necessary to prevent overutilization of blood cultures during patient surges, and laboratories should consider shortening the incubation period from 5 days to 4 days, if necessary, to free additional capacity.

High-resolution genomic alterations in Barrett's metaplasia of patients who progress to esophageal dysplasia and adenocarcinoma.

The main risk factor for esophageal dysplasia and adenocarcinoma (DAC) is Barrett's esophagus (BE), characterized by intestinal metaplasia. The critical genomic mechanisms that lead to progression of nondysplastic BE to DAC remain poorly understood and require analyses of longitudinal patient cohorts and high-resolution assays. We tested BE tissues from 74 patients, including 42 nonprogressors from two separate groups of 21 patients each and 32 progressors (16 in a longitudinal cohort before DAC/preprogression-BE and 16 with temporally concurrent but spatially separate DAC/concurrent-BE). We interrogated genome-wide somatic copy number alterations (SCNAs) at the exon level with high-resolution SNP arrays in DNA from formalin-fixed samples histologically confirmed as nondysplastic BE. The most frequent abnormalities were SCNAs involving FHIT exon 5, CDKN2A/B or both in 88% longitudinal BE progressors to DAC vs. 24% in both nonprogressor groups (p = 0.0004). Deletions in other genomic regions were found in 56% of preprogression-BE but only in one nonprogressor-BE (p = 0.0004). SCNAs involving FHIT exon 5 and CDKN2A/B were also frequently detected in BE temporally concurrent with DAC. TP53 losses were detected in concurrent-BE but not earlier in preprogression-BE tissues of patients who developed DAC. CDKN2A/p16 immunohistochemistry showed significant loss of expression in BE of progressors vs. nonprogressors, supporting the genomic data. Our data suggest a role for CDKN2A/B and FHIT in early progression of BE to dysplasia and adenocarcinoma that warrants future mechanistic research. Alterations in CDKN2A/B and FHIT by high-resolution assays may serve as biomarkers of increased risk of progression to DAC when detected in BE tissues.

[William Hunter (1718-1783): his legacy three hundred years from his birthday]. / William Hunter (1718-1783): su legado a trescientos años de su nacimiento.

The aim of this paper is to evaluate some aspects of the life of William Hunter (1718-1783), and to argue that he deserves a better place in history as he was one of the most outstanding figures in British medicine of the 18th century. A Scotsman, Presbyterian, from a family without means or connections, he underwent a classic education at the University of Glasgow, completed with apprenticeships with William Cullen and Alexander Monro first in Scotland, and then in London, with William Smellie, James Douglas and James Wilkie, in anatomy, obstetrics and surgery, respectively. Despite initial disadvantages, he was highly successful as an anatomist, educator, surgeon, man-midwife, artist, gentleman and collector. He moved and had influences in the highest medical, cultural and social circles of his time, was named Physician Extraordinary to Queen Charlotte, and was a member of many scientific, medical and cultural societies in Great Britain and in France, such as the Royal Society, the Royal College of Physicians and the Societé Royale de Médicine of Paris. His museum was notable in its magnitude and its diversity, including anatomical preparations, coins, shells, plants, birds, insects, fossils, and minerals. He donated his great museum to the University of Glasgow. His figure has been relegated mainly due to the absence of heirs, individuals or institutional, that could have cared for, maintained, and increased his legacy as happened with his brother John.

When to re-order laboratory tests? Learning laboratory test shelf-life.

Most laboratory results are valid for only a certain time period (laboratory tests shelf-life), after which they are outdated and the test needs to be re-administered. Currently, laboratory test shelf-lives are not centrally available anywhere but the implicit knowledge of doctors. In this work we propose an automated method to learn laboratory test-specific shelf-life by identifying prevalent laboratory test order patterns in electronic health records. The resulting shelf-lives performed well in the evaluation of internal validity, clinical interpretability, and external validity.

High-definition CpG methylation of novel genes in gastric carcinogenesis identified by next-generation sequencing.

Gastric cancers are the most frequent gastric malignancy and usually arise in the sequence of Helicobacter pylori-associated chronic gastritis. CpG methylation is a central mechanism of epigenetic gene regulation affecting cancer-related genes, and occurs early in gastric carcinogenesis. DNA samples from non-metaplastic gastric mucosa with variable levels of gastritis (non-metaplastic mucosa), intestinal metaplasia, or gastric cancer were screened with methylation arrays for CpG methylation of cancer-related genes and 30 gene targets were further characterized by high-definition bisulfite next-generation sequencing. In addition, data from The Cancer Genome Atlas were analyzed for correlation of methylation with gene expression. Overall, 13 genes had significantly increased CpG methylation in gastric cancer vs non-metaplastic mucosa (BRINP1, CDH11, CHFR, EPHA5, EPHA7, FGF2, FLI1, GALR1, HS3ST2, PDGFRA, SEZ6L, SGCE, and SNRPN). Further, most of these genes had corresponding reduced expression levels in gastric cancer compared with intestinal metaplasia, including novel hypermethylated genes in gastric cancer (FLI1, GALR1, SGCE, and SNRPN), suggesting that they may regulate neoplastic transformation from non-malignant intestinal metaplasia to cancer. Our data suggest a tumor-suppressor role for FLI1 in gastric cancer, consistent with recently reported data in breast cancer. For the genes with strongest methylation/expression correlation, namely FLI1, the expression was lowest in microsatellite-unstable tumors compared with other gastric cancer molecular subtypes. Importantly, reduced expression of hypermethylated BRINP1 and SGCE was significantly associated with favorable survival in gastric cancer. In summary, we report novel methylation gene targets that may have functional roles in discrete stages of gastric carcinogenesis and may serve as biomarkers for diagnosis and prognosis of gastric cancer.

Mutational analysis by next generation sequencing of gastric type dysplasia occurring in hyperplastic polyps of the stomach: Mutations in gastric hyperplastic polyps.

UNLABELLED: Gastric hyperplastic polyps (GHP) are the most common type of polyps occurring in the stomach. Although GHP are broadly interpreted as benign lesions, they may progress to dysplasia and adenocarcinoma. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we aimed to identify genomic mutations that characterize and may drive malignant transformation in GHP by using next-generation sequencing. Eight GHP (2 with dysplasia, 1 indefinite for dysplasia and 5 without dysplasia) were studied. Only large polyps (>1cm) with gastric differentiation were included in this study, while adenomatous polyps (intestinal-type) were excluded. Immunohistochemistry for MUC2, MUC5A, MUC6, CDX2, p53, and Ki67 was performed. DNA was extracted from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded sections and sequenced for the detection of somatic mutations. Multiplex sequencing was done with the TrueSeq Amplicon Cancer Panel in the MiSeq platform. Variant annotation and visualization were performed using NextGENe (SoftGenetics) software. No pathogenic mutations were detected in GHP without dysplasia. TP53 gene mutations were the most common alteration in dysplastic GHP (2 of 2 dysplastic cases). PIK3CA mutation was identified in a GHP with pyloric-type dysplasia, whereas foveolar-type dysplasia carried TP53 mutations. In conclusion, TP53 gene mutations are a common alteration in the early dysplastic stage during malignant transformation of GHP. GHP with dysplasia may show dual differentiation. In our study, pyloric-type dysplasia was associated with a PIK3CA alteration whereas foveolar dysplasia carried TP53 mutations. The identification of carcinoma-associated mutations in large GHP provides additional evidence of their neoplastic potential and emphasizes the need for their complete resection and follow-up.

Identifying and mitigating biases in EHR laboratory tests.

Electronic health record (EHR) data show promise for deriving new ways of modeling human disease states. Although EHR researchers often use numerical values of laboratory tests as features in disease models, a great deal of information is contained in the context within which a laboratory test is taken. For example, the same numerical value of a creatinine test has different interpretation for a chronic kidney disease patient and a patient with acute kidney injury. We study whether EHR research studies are subject to biased results and interpretations if laboratory measurements taken in different contexts are not explicitly separated. We show that the context of a laboratory test measurement can often be captured by the way the test is measured through time. We perform three tasks to study the properties of these temporal measurement patterns. In the first task, we confirm that laboratory test measurement patterns provide additional information to the stand-alone numerical value. The second task identifies three measurement pattern motifs across a set of 70 laboratory tests performed for over 14,000 patients. Of these, one motif exhibits properties that can lead to biased research results. In the third task, we demonstrate the potential for biased results on a specific example. We conduct an association study of lipase test values to acute pancreatitis. We observe a diluted signal when using only a lipase value threshold, whereas the full association is recovered when properly accounting for lipase measurements in different contexts (leveraging the lipase measurement patterns to separate the contexts). Aggregating EHR data without separating distinct laboratory test measurement patterns can intermix patients with different diseases, leading to the confounding of signals in large-scale EHR analyses. This paper presents a methodology for leveraging measurement frequency to identify and reduce laboratory test biases.

CDKN2A-p16 Deletion and Activated KRASG12D Drive Barrett's-Like Gland Hyperplasia-Metaplasia and Synergize in the Development of Dysplasia Precancer Lesions.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Barrett's esophagus is the precursor of esophageal dysplasia and esophageal adenocarcinoma. CDKN2A-p16 deletions were reported in 34%-74% of patients with Barrett's esophagus who progressed to dysplasia and esophageal adenocarcinoma, suggesting that p16 loss may drive neoplastic progression. KRAS activation frequently occurs in esophageal adenocarcinoma and precancer lesions. LGR5+ stem cells in the squamocolumnar-junction (SCJ) of mouse stomach contribute as Barrett's esophagus progenitors. We aimed to determine the functional effects of p16 loss and KRAS activation in Barrett's-like metaplasia and dysplasia development. METHODS: We established mouse models with conditional knockout of CDKN2A-p16 (p16KO) and/or activated KRASG12D expression targeting SCJ LGR5+ cells in interleukin 1b transgenic mice and characterized histologic alterations (mucous-gland hyperplasia/metaplasia, inflammation, and dysplasia) in mouse SCJ. Gene expression was determined by microarray, RNA sequencing, and immunohistochemistry of SCJ tissues and cultured 3-dimensional organoids. RESULTS: p16KO mice exhibited increased mucous-gland hyperplasia/metaplasia versus control mice (P = .0051). Combined p16KO+KRASG12D resulted in more frequent dysplasia and higher dysplasia scores (P = .0036), with 82% of p16KO+KRASG12D mice developing high-grade dysplasia. SCJ transcriptome analysis showed several activated pathways in p16KO versus control mice (apoptosis, tumor necrosis factor-α/nuclear factor-kB, proteasome degradation, p53 signaling, MAPK, KRAS, and G1-to-S transition). CONCLUSIONS: p16 deletion in LGR5+ cell precursors triggers increased SCJ mucous-gland hyperplasia/metaplasia. KRASG12D synergizes with p16 deletion resulting in higher grades of SCJ glandular dysplasia, mimicking Barrett's high-grade dysplasia. These genetically modified mouse models establish a functional role of p16 and activated KRAS in the progression of Barrett's-like lesions to dysplasia in mice, representing an in vivo model of esophageal adenocarcinoma precancer. Derived 3-dimensional organoid models further provide in vitro modeling opportunities of esophageal precancer stages.

Normoblastemia in COVID-19 patients is associated with more severe disease and adverse outcome.

OBJECTIVES: The clinical, pathological, and laboratory correlates of normoblastemia in COVID-19 patients have not been adequately explored. We sought to assess the frequency of normoblastemia in COVID-19, its association with other markers of disease, as well as other clinical outcomes. METHODS: All COVID-19 patients seen at our institution with at least one automated complete blood count (aCBC) evaluation from March to May 2020 were included in this retrospective cohort analysis. Results of aCBC and tests for markers of the acute phase response performed within 5 days before the first COVID-19 positive test and 14 days after the last positive test were reviewed. We also evaluated histologic features of the reticuloendothelial system of COVID-19 decedents. RESULTS: Among a total of 2501 COVID-19 patients, 715 (28.6%) were found to have normoblastemia. Patients with this abnormality had significantly higher (median, (1st quartile, 3rd quartile) WBC (15.7 (11.2, 23.1) u/L vs. 8.3 (6.2, 11.5) u/L), absolute neutrophil count (7.0 (5.1, 10.1) u/L vs. 5.1 (3.7, 7.3) u/L), immature granulocyte percentage (0.8 (0.5, 1.3)% vs. 0.5 (0.3, 0.8)%), ESR (76.0 (60.5, 100.0) mm/hr vs. 66.0 (45.0, 87.0) mm/hr), ferritin (1404.5 (645.0, 2871.0) ng/mL vs. 672.7 (313.4, 1348.0) ng/mL), INR (1.4 (1.2, 1.7) vs. 1.2 (1.1, 1.3)), D-dimer (8.2 (2.8, 20.0) ug/mL FEU vs. 1.5 (0.8, 3.7) µg/mL FEU), and IL-6 (216.6 (77.7, 315.0) pg/mL vs. 54.3 (23.2, 127.8) pg/mL) levels, and lower hemoglobin (12.5 (10.7, 14.2) g/dL vs. 13.2 (11.8, 14.6) g/dL) and absolute lymphocyte count (1.0 (0.7, 1.3) u/L vs. 1.1 (0.8, 1.5) u/L). The incidence of intubation and ventilation support (61.3% (65/106) vs. 10.5% (31/263)) and mortality rates (37.9%, 271/715 vs. 11.8%, 210/1786), were higher in normoblastemic patients. Multivariable logistic regression revealed normoblastemia to be an independent predictive biomarker of short-term mortality in COVID-19. CONCLUSION: Normoblastemia in COVID-19 is associated with markers of severe disease, extramedullary erythropoiesis, and adverse clinical outcome.

Building the Model.

CONTEXT.­: Machine learning (ML) allows for the analysis of massive quantities of high-dimensional clinical laboratory data, thereby revealing complex patterns and trends. Thus, ML can potentially improve the efficiency of clinical data interpretation and the practice of laboratory medicine. However, the risks of generating biased or unrepresentative models, which can lead to misleading clinical conclusions or overestimation of the model performance, should be recognized. OBJECTIVES.­: To discuss the major components for creating ML models, including data collection, data preprocessing, model development, and model evaluation. We also highlight many of the challenges and pitfalls in developing ML models, which could result in misleading clinical impressions or inaccurate model performance, and provide suggestions and guidance on how to circumvent these challenges. DATA SOURCES.­: The references for this review were identified through searches of the PubMed database, US Food and Drug Administration white papers and guidelines, conference abstracts, and online preprints. CONCLUSIONS.­: With the growing interest in developing and implementing ML models in clinical practice, laboratorians and clinicians need to be educated in order to collect sufficiently large and high-quality data, properly report the data set characteristics, and combine data from multiple institutions with proper normalization. They will also need to assess the reasons for missing values, determine the inclusion or exclusion of outliers, and evaluate the completeness of a data set. In addition, they require the necessary knowledge to select a suitable ML model for a specific clinical question and accurately evaluate the performance of the ML model, based on objective criteria. Domain-specific knowledge is critical in the entire workflow of developing ML models.

Biopolitics and speculative objects in Chilean health projects.

'Biopolitics' is a much-used concept in recent academic literature. One of its main fields of application is in the analysis of public health projects. This article analyses the national Explicit Health Guarantees project in Chile from that perspective. However, we criticize the standard invocation of 'biopolitics' by observing that such public health projects require technoscientific operations that establish truths and regimes of obligation for the groups involved -understanding regime both as a set of imposed orders and a set of regulated processes. Specifically, the Explicit Health Guarantees project defines what we call 'speculative objects'. These have two characteristics: (a) They relate highly diverse entities into integrated wholes that are and involve objects of knowledge and uncertainty, and (b) this integration creates regimes of obligation considered as scientific truths on many different groups. We conclude by proposing new questions about the notion of biopolitics and its relationship with uncertainty and speculation.