Longitudinal assessment of undergraduate dental students: Building evidence for validity.

PURPOSE: To investigate the content and criterion validity, and reliability of longitudinal clinical assessment of undergraduate dental student clinical competence by determining patterns of clinical performance and comparing them with validated standalone undergraduate examinations. METHODS: Group-based trajectory models tracking students' clinical performance over time were produced from LIFTUPP© data for three dental student cohorts (2017-19; n = 235) using threshold models based on the Bayesian information criterion. Content validity was investigated using LIFTUPP© performance indicator 4 as the threshold for competence. Criterion validity was investigated using performance indicator 5 to create distinct trajectories of performance before linking and cross-tabulating trajectory group memberships with a 'top 20%' performance in the final Bachelor of Dental Surgery (BDS) examinations. Reliability was calculated using Cronbach's alpha. RESULTS: Threshold 4 models showed all students followed a single upward trajectory in all three cohorts, showing clear progression in competence over three clinical BDS years. A threshold 5 model produced two distinct trajectories, and in each cohort a 'better performing' trajectory was identified. Students allocated to the 'better performing' trajectories scored higher on average in the final examinations for cohort 2 (29% vs 18% (BDS4); 33% vs. 15% (BDS5)) and cohort 3 (19% vs. 16% (BDS4); 21% vs. 16% (BDS5)). Reliability for the undergraduate examinations was high for all three cohorts (≥0.8815) and did not change appreciably when longitudinal assessment was included. CONCLUSIONS: There is some evidence to support that longitudinal data have a degree of content and criterion validity for assessing the development of clinical competence in undergraduate dental students, which should increase confidence in decisions based on these data. The findings also provide a good foundation for subsequent research.

Selective Caries Removal in Permanent Teeth (SCRiPT) for the treatment of deep carious lesions: a randomised controlled clinical trial in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Dental caries is one of the most prevalent non-communicable disease globally and can have serious health sequelae impacting negatively on quality of life. In the UK most adults experience dental caries during their lifetime and the 2009 Adult Dental Health Survey reported that 85% of adults have at least one dental restoration. Conservative removal of tooth tissue for both primary and secondary caries reduces the risk of failure due to tooth-restoration, complex fracture as well as remaining tooth surfaces being less vulnerable to further caries. However, despite its prevalence there is no consensus on how much caries to remove prior to placing a restoration to achieve optimal outcomes. Evidence for selective compared to complete or near-complete caries removal suggests there may be benefits for selective removal in sustaining tooth vitality, therefore avoiding abscess formation and pain, so eliminating the need for more complex and costly treatment or eventual tooth loss. However, the evidence is of low scientific quality and mainly gleaned from studies in primary teeth. METHOD: This is a pragmatic, multi-centre, two-arm patient randomised controlled clinical trial including an internal pilot set in primary dental care in Scotland and England. Dental health professionals will recruit 623 participants over 12-years of age with deep carious lesions in their permanent posterior teeth. Participants will have a single tooth randomised to either the selective caries removal or complete caries removal treatment arm. Baseline measures and outcome data (during the 3-year follow-up period) will be assessed through clinical examination, patient questionnaires and NHS databases. A mixed-method process evaluation will complement the clinical and economic outcome evaluation and examine implementation, mechanisms of impact and context. The primary outcome at three years is sustained tooth vitality. The primary economic outcome is net benefit modelled over a lifetime horizon. Clinical secondary outcomes include pulp exposure, progession of caries, restoration failure; as well as patient-centred and economic outcomes. DISCUSSION: SCRiPT will provide evidence for the most clinically effective and cost-beneficial approach to managing deep carious lesions in permanent posterior teeth in primary care. This will support general dental practitioners, patients and policy makers in decision making. Trial Registration Trial registry: ISRCTN. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN76503940. Date of Registration: 30.10.2019. URL of trial registry record: https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN76503940?q=ISRCTN76503940%20&filters=&sort=&offset=1&totalResults=1&page=1&pageSize=10&searchType=basic-search .

The systemic inflammatory response following hand instrumentation versus ultrasonic instrumentation-A randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: This study sought to investigate whether the immediate systemic inflammatory response following full-mouth debridement differs following use of hand compared with ultrasonic instruments. METHODS: Thirty-nine periodontitis patients were randomized to treatment with full-mouth debridement using either hand or ultrasonic instrumentation completed within 24 hr. Serum and periodontal clinical parameters were collected at baseline, day 1, day 7 and day 90 post-treatment. Differences in systemic inflammatory markers were assessed using general linear models at each timepoint, corrected for age, gender, smoking status, body mass index and baseline levels of each marker. RESULTS: Across all patients, serum C-reactive protein increased at day 1, with no differences between hand and ultrasonic groups (p(adjusted) = .22). There was no difference between groups in interleukin-6 (p(adjusted) = .29) or tumour necrosis factor α (p(adjusted) = .53) at day 1. Inflammatory markers returned to baseline levels by day 7. Treatment resulted in equal and marked improvements in clinical parameters in both groups; however, total treatment time was on average shorter for ultrasonic instruments (p(adjusted) = .002). CONCLUSIONS: Ultrasonic instrumentation resulted in shorter treatment time with comparable clinical outcomes. Levels of serum C-reactive protein at day 1 were similar following debridement with hand or ultrasonic instruments.

The effectiveness of Dental Health Support Workers at linking families with primary care dental practices: a population-wide data linkage cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Link workers (lay health workers, health support workers) based in the community provide additional support to individuals and families to facilitate engagement with primary care and other services and resources. This additional support aims to tackle the wider socio-economic determinants of health that lead to inequalities. To date, there is no clear evidence of the effectiveness of these programmes. This study evaluates the effectiveness of Dental Health Support Workers (DHSW) at linking targeted families with young children to primary care dental practices. The DHSW role is one component of Childsmile, the national oral health improvement programme in Scotland. METHODS: A quasi-experimental approach captured the natural variation in the rollout of the DHSW intervention across Scotland in a cohort of children born between 2010 and 2013. Survival analysis explored "time to attendance" at primary care dental practice. Cox's regression models compared attendance rates and time until first attendance between those families who received support from the DHSW and those who did not. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 35236 children. Thirty-three percent of the cohort (n = 11495) were considered to require additional support from a DHSW. Of these, 44% (5087) received that support. These families were more likely to attend a dental practice (Hazard Ratio [95% Confidence Interval] =1.87 [1.8 to 1.9]) and, on average, did so 9 months earlier (median time until first attendance: 8.8 months versus 17.8 months), compared to families not receiving additional support. CONCLUSIONS: Link workers (DHSW) within the Childsmile programme are effective at linking targeted children to primary care dental services and, most notably, at a younger age for prevention. This is the first study of its kind to evaluate the effectiveness of link-worker programmes using a robust quasi-experimental design on three, population-wide, linked datasets. These results will inform future health programmes which aim to improve health and reduce inequalities by reaching and supporting families from more disadvantaged backgrounds.

Trends in socio-economic inequalities in the Scottish diet: 2001-2009.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the association between diet and socio-economic position for 2007-2009 and investigate trends in socio-economic inequalities in the Scottish diet between 2001 and 2009. DESIGN: UK food purchase data (collected annually from 2001 to 2009) were used to estimate household-level consumption data. Population mean food consumption, nutrient intakes and energy density were estimated by quintiles of an area-based index of multiple deprivation. Food and nutrient intakes estimated were those targeted for change in Scotland and others indicative of diet quality. The slope and relative indices of inequality were used to assess trends in inequalities in consumption over time. SETTING: Scotland. SUBJECTS: Scottish households (n 5020). RESULTS: Daily consumption of fruit and vegetables (200 g, 348 g), brown/wholemeal bread (17 g, 26·5 g), breakfast cereals (16 g, 27 g) and oil-rich (21 g, 40 g) and white fish (77 g, 112 g) were lowest, and that of total bread highest (105 g, 91·5 g) in the most deprived compared with the least deprived households, respectively, for the period 2007-2009. With regard to nutrients, there was no association between deprivation and the percentage of food energy from total fat and saturated fat; however, non-milk extrinsic sugar intakes (15·5%, 14·3%) and energy density (741 kJ/100 g, 701 kJ/100 g) were significantly higher in the most deprived households. The slope and relative indices of inequality showed that inequalities in intakes between 2001 and 2009 have changed very little. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence to suggest that the difference in targeted food and nutrient intakes between the least and most deprived has decreased compared with previous years.

Energy density of the Scottish diet estimated from food purchase data: relationship with socio-economic position and dietary targets.

Frequent consumption of energy-dense foods has been strongly implicated in the global increase of obesity. The World Cancer Research Fund suggests a population-level energy density (ED) goal for diets of 523 kJ/100 g (125 kcal/100 g) as desirable for reducing weight gain and related co-morbidities. However, there is limited information about the ED of diets of contemporary populations. The aims of the present study were to (1) estimate the mean ED of the Scottish diet, (2) assess differences in ED over time by socio-economic position, by household (HH) composition and for HH meeting dietary targets for fat and fruit and vegetables, and (3) assess the relationship between ED and the consumption of foods and nutrients, which are indicative of diet quality. ED of the diet was estimated from food (including milk) from UK food purchase survey data. The average ED of the Scottish diet was estimated as 718 kJ/100 g with no change between the survey periods 2001 and 2009. Individuals living in the most deprived areas had a higher mean ED than those living in the least deprived areas (737 v. 696 kJ/100 g). Single-parent HH had the highest mean ED (765 kJ/100 g) of all the HH surveyed. The mean ED of HH achieving dietary targets for fat and fruit and vegetables was 576 kJ/100 g compared with 731 kJ/100 g for non-achievers. HH within the lowest quintile of ED were, on average, closest to meeting most dietary guidelines. Food purchase data can be used to monitor the quality of the diet in terms of dietary ED of the population and subgroups defined by an area-based measure of socio-economic status.

Obesity and dental caries in childhood: trends in prevalence and socioeconomic inequalities-a multicohort population-wide data linkage study.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify levels of coexisting obesity and caries experience in children in Scotland, and any associated socioeconomic inequalities over the years 2011/2012-2017/2018. DESIGN: A multicohort population-wide data linkage study. SETTING: Local authority primary schools in Scotland. PATIENTS: 335 361 primary 1 (approximately 5 years old) schoolchildren in Scotland between 2011/2012 and 2017/2018. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence and inequalities in coexisting caries and obesity. RESULTS: The prevalence of coexisting obesity and caries experience was 3.4% (n=11 494 of 335 361) and did not change over the 7 years. Children living in the 20% most deprived areas had more than sixfold greater odds of coexisting obesity and caries experience than children from the 20% least deprived areas (adjusted OR=6.63 (95% CI=6.16 to 7.14; p<0.001)). There was a large persistent socioeconomic gradient across the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation groups, with the Slope and Relative Indices of Inequality remaining unchanged over the 7 cohort years. CONCLUSIONS: Despite improvements in oral health in children in Scotland, the prevalence of coexisting obesity and caries experience has remained static, with large persistent inequalities. These conditions are likely to signal increased risk of chronic conditions including multimorbidity in adulthood and therefore early identification of children most at risk and timely intervention tackling common risk factors should be developed and evaluated.

Slow pace of dietary change in Scotland: 2001-9.

Monitoring changes in the food and nutrient intake of a nation is important for informing the design and evaluation of policy. Surveys of household food consumption have been carried out annually in the UK since 1940 and, despite some changes over the years 1940-2000, the method used for the Expenditure and Food Survey (Living Costs and Food Survey from 2008) has been fundamentally the same since 2001. Using these surveys an analytical procedure was devised to compare food consumption and nutrient intake in Scotland with the Scottish dietary targets, and monitor change. This method takes into account contributions to composite foods and losses due to food preparation, as well as inedible and edible waste. There were few consistent improvements in consumption of foods or nutrients targeted for change over the period 2001-9. A significant but small increase was seen in mean fruit and vegetable consumption (259 g/d in 2001, 279 g/d in 2009, equating to an increase of less than 3 g/person per year). There was also a significant decrease in the percentage of food energy from SFA (15·5 % in 2001, 15·1 % in 2009) and from non-milk extrinsic sugars (15·5 % in 2001, 14·8 % in 2009), concurrent with a reduction in whole milk consumption and soft drink consumption, respectively. These small changes are encouraging, but highlight the time taken for even modest changes in diet to occur. To achieve a significant impact on the health of the present Scottish population, the improvements in diet will need to be greater and more rapid.

Effectiveness and reach of a directed-population approach to improving dental health and reducing inequalities: a cross sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Childsmile School adopts a directed-population approach to target fluoride varnish applications to 20% of the primary one (P1) population in priority schools selected on the basis of the proportion of enrolled children considered to be at increased-risk of developing dental caries. The study sought to compare the effectiveness of four different methods for identifying individuals most in need when a directed-population approach is taken. METHODS: The 2008 Basic National Dental Inspection Programme (BNDIP) cross-sectional P1 Scottish epidemiological survey dataset was used to model four methods and test three definitions of increased-risk. Effectiveness was determined by the positive predictive value (PPV) and explored in relation to 1-sensitivity and 1-specificity. RESULTS: Complete data was available on 43,470 children (87% of the survey). At the Scotland level, at least half (50%) of the children targeted were at increased-risk irrespective of the method used to target or the definition of increased-risk. There was no one method across all definitions of increased-risk that maximised PPV. Instead, PPV was highest when the targeting method complimented the definition of increased-risk. There was a higher percentage of children at increased-risk who were not targeted (1-sensitivity) when caries experience (rather than deprivation) was used to define increased-risk, irrespective of the method used for targeting. Over all three definitions of increased-risk, there was no one method that minimised (1-sensitivity) although this was lowest when the method and definition of increased-risk were complimentary. The false positive rate (1-specificity) for all methods and all definitions of increased-risk was consistently low (<20%), again being lowest when the method and definition of increased-risk were complimentary. CONCLUSION: Developing a method to reach all (or even the vast majority) of individuals at increased-risk defined by either caries experience or deprivation is difficult using a directed-population approach at a group level. There is a need for a wider debate between politicians and public health experts to decide how best to reach those most at need of intervention to improve health and reduce inequalities.

Periodontal instrumentation technique: an exploratory analysis of clinical outcomes and financial aspects.

Objective This exploratory post hoc analysis sought to investigate clinical outcomes comparing non-surgical treatment for periodontal disease using exclusively hand instruments, exclusively ultrasonic instruments or a combination approach. Differences in time efficiency and equipment use with each treatment method were evaluated.Methods In total, 55 patients with periodontitis were treated across two studies (randomised controlled trial and cohort study) with non-surgical periodontal therapy using hand instruments (HI), ultrasonic instruments (UI) or a combination approach (CI). All patients were re-evaluated 90 days after treatment. Clinical parameters, time taken and financial implications of non-surgical periodontal therapy were explored with a descriptive analysis within this post hoc analysis.Results There were no clinically relevant differences in clinical parameters across all groups at day 90. Inter-group comparisons showed no clinically relevant differences in treatment outcome between groups. UI required less time on average to complete treatment compared to HI. UI provided using a half mouth approach had fewest overall episodes of expenditure and lowest maintenance costs.Conclusions Comparison of clinical outcomes between HI, UI and CI yielded no clinically relevant differences. When comparing HI and UI, UI had a shorter treatment time on average. Full mouth treatment was associated with the least patient visits. UI was least costly on a recurring basis.

Child oral health and preventive dental service access among children with intellectual disabilities, autism and other educational additional support needs: A population-based record linkage cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Inequalities in child oral health are a global challenge and the intersection of socioeconomic factors with educational additional support needs (ASN), including children with intellectual disabilities or autism, have thus far received limited attention in relatively small clinical studies. We aimed to address this evidence gap by investigating oral health and access to preventive dental services among children with ASN compared to the general child population. METHODS: Cohort study linking data from six Scotland-wide health and education databases compared: dental caries experience and tooth extraction via general anaesthetic; receipt of school-based dental inspection; access to primary care and hospital dental services; and access to the Childsmile national oral health improvement programme between children with a range of ASN (intellectual disabilities, autism, social and other) and their peers for the school years 2016/17-2018/19 (n = 166 781). RESULTS: Children with any ASN had higher rates of caries experience than those with no ASN, however, after adjustment for socioeconomic deprivation, sex, year, and school type only those with a social or other ASN remained at increased risk. Rates of tooth extraction under general anaesthesia in hospital were higher among children with intellectual disabilities (aRR = 1.67;95% CI = [1.16-2.37]). School-based dental inspection access improved for children with intellectual disability and/or autism from 2016/17 onwards, although higher rates of child refusal on the day were observed in these groups (no ASN refusal: 5.4%; intellectual disability: 35.8%; autism: 40.3%). Children with any ASN were less likely to attend primary dental-care regularly, and in those who attended, children with intellectual disability or autism were less likely than their peers to receive prevention (fluoride varnish, oral-hygiene instruction, or dietary advice). Childsmile nursery-supervised toothbrushing programme access among children with any ASN was similar to children with no ASN and children with intellectual disability (aRR = 1.27;95% CI = [1.12-1.45]) or autism (aRR = 1.32;95% CI = [1.19-1.45]) were more likely to receive support from Childsmile dental health support worker. CONCLUSIONS: We have identified inequalities in oral health and dental care for children with different ASN in Scotland with both a greater burden of disease among some groups and higher complexity of care; compounded by reduced and variable access to preventive dental services. Further efforts are needed to develop and improve preventive care pathways for children with ASN and integrate oral health to wider healthcare systems for these children to mitigate against oral health inequalities.

Estimated impact of the UK soft drinks industry levy on childhood hospital admissions for carious tooth extractions: interrupted time series analysis.

Introduction: Tooth extraction due to dental caries is associated with socioeconomic deprivation and is a major reason for elective childhood hospital admissions in England. Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages is a risk factor for dental caries. We examined whether the soft drinks industry levy (SDIL), announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018, was associated with changes in incidence rates of hospital admissions for carious tooth extraction in children, 22 months post-SDIL implementation. Methods: Changes in incidence rates of monthly National Health Service hospital admissions for extraction of teeth due to a primary diagnosis of dental caries (International Classification of Diseases; ICD-10 code: K02) in England, between January 2012 and February 2020, were estimated using interrupted time series and compared with a counterfactual scenario where SDIL was not announced or implemented. Periodical changes in admissions, autocorrelation and population structure were accounted for. Estimates were calculated overall, by Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) fifths and by age group (0-4 years, 5-9 years, 10-14 years, 15-18 years). Results: Compared with the counterfactual scenario, there was a relative reduction of 12.1% (95% CI 17.0% to 7.2%) in hospital admissions for carious tooth extractions in all children (0-18 years). Children aged 0-4 years and 5-9 years had relative reductions of 28.6% (95% CI 35.6% to 21.5%) and 5.5% (95% CI 10.5% to 0.5%), respectively; no change was observed for older children. Reductions were observed in children living in most IMD areas regardless of deprivation. Conclusion: The UK SDIL was associated with reductions in incidence rates of childhood hospital admissions for carious tooth extractions, across most areas regardless of deprivation status and especially in younger children. Trial registration number: ISRCTN18042742.

Evaluating childsmile, Scotland's National Oral Health Improvement Programme for children.

In the early 2000s, a Scottish Government Oral Health Action Plan identified the need for a national programme to improve child oral health and reduce inequalities. 'Childsmile' aimed to improve child oral health in Scotland, reduce inequalities in outcomes and access to dental services, and to shift the balance of care from treatment to prevention through targeted and universal components in dental practice, community and educational settings. This paper describes how an embedded, theory-based research and evaluation arm with multi-disciplinary input helps determine priorities and provides important strategic direction. Programme theory is articulated in dedicated, dynamic logic models, and evaluation themes are as follows: population-level data linkage; trials and economic evaluations; investigations drawing from behavioural and implementation science; evidence reviews and updates; and applications of systems science. There is also a growing knowledge sharing network internationally. Collaborative working from all stakeholders is necessary to maintain gains and to address areas that may not be working as well, and never more so with the major disruptions to the programme from the COVID-19 pandemic and response. Conclusions are that evaluation and research are synergistic with a complex, dynamic programme like Childsmile. The evidence obtained allows for appraisal of the relative strengths of component interventions and the reach and impact of Childsmile to feed into national policy.

Inequalities in access to NHS primary care dental services in Scotland during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Introduction This study aimed to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on access and inequalities in primary care dental services among children and adults in Scotland.Methods Access was measured as any NHS Scotland primary care dental contacts derived from administrative data from January 2019 to May 2022, linked to the area-based Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation for children and adults, and related to population denominator estimates from National Record Scotland. Inequalities for pre-pandemic (January 2019-January 2020) and recent (December 2021-February 2022, and March 2022-May 2022) periods for both children and adults were calculated and compared using the slope index of inequality and relative index of inequality.Results Following the first lockdown (March 2020) there was a dramatic fall to near zero dental contacts, followed by a slow recovery to 64.8% of pre-pandemic levels by May 2022. There was initial widening of relative inequalities in dental contacts in early 2022, which, more recently, had begun to return to pre-pandemic levels.Conclusion COVID-19 had a major impact on access to NHS primary dental care, and while inequalities in access are apparent as services recover from lockdown, these inequalities are not a new phenomenon.

Periodontitis in non-smoking type 1 diabetic adults: a cross-sectional study.

AIM: To compare levels of periodontitis in non-smoking type 1 diabetic patients and controls. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Type 1 diabetic patients, aged 20-55 years, were recruited from outpatient clinics at five hospitals in Glasgow, UK. Control subjects were recruited from physiotherapy clinics, using the buddy system and through an advertisement in a free newspaper. The primary outcome was severe periodontitis defined by clinical attachment level ≥6 mm on ≥1 tooth. RESULTS: There were 34 well controlled patients (HbA1c ≤ 7.5%), 169 poorly controlled patients and 112 non-diabetic subjects. Prevalence of severe periodontitis was higher in all type 1 diabetic patients [24.1% (95% CI: 18.4-30.6%)] and poorly controlled patients [27.2% (20.7-34.6%)] than in controls [20.5% (13.5-29.2%)]. The fully adjusted odds ratios (ORs) in never smokers comparing the whole diabetic group, and the poorly controlled group, with the control group were 1.35 [0.66-2.8] (p = 0.41) and 1.58 [0.75-3.33] (p = 0.23), respectively. Mean clinical attachment level was higher in all type 1 diabetic and poorly controlled patients than in controls (both p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate worse periodontal health in type 1 diabetic patients than in control subjects. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was registered with the UKCRN, ID: 9314 and Scottish Diabetes Research Network registration number: 128.

Infant feeding in relation to eating patterns in the second year of life and weight status in the fourth year.

OBJECTIVE: To explore associations of early infant feeding with (i) eating patterns in the second year of life and (ii) weight status in the fourth year of life in a prospective cohort of children in Scotland. DESIGN: Growing Up in Scotland (GUS) longitudinal birth cohort study (2005-2008). SETTING: Scotland, UK. SUBJECTS: Children aged 9-12 months (n 5217) followed through to 45-48 months. RESULTS: Infant feeding was associated with eating patterns, defined by using SPSS two-step cluster analysis, in the second year of life. Children who were ever breast-fed compared with never breast-fed (adjusted OR = 1·48, 95 % CI 1·27, 1·73) were more likely to have a positive eating pattern (Cluster 2). Children who started complementary feeding at 4-5 months or 6-10 months compared with 0-3 months (adjusted OR = 1·32, 95 % CI 1·09, 1·59 or AOR = 1·50, 95 % CI 1·19, 1·89) were more likely to belong to Cluster 2. Breast-feeding was negatively associated with being overweight or obese in the fourth year of life compared with no breast-feeding (adjusted OR = 0·81, 95 % CI 0·81, 1·01). Introduction of complementary feeding at 4-5 months compared with 0-3 months was negatively associated with being overweight or obese (adjusted OR = 0·74, 95 % CI 0·57, 0·97). CONCLUSIONS: Breast-feeding and introduction of complementary feeding after 4 months were associated with a positive eating pattern in the second year of life. Introduction of complementary feeding at 4-5 months compared with 0-3 months was negatively associated with being overweight or obese.

To what extent do weight gain and eating avidity during infancy predict later adiposity?

OBJECTIVE: To determine the extent to which weight gain and eating behaviours in infancy predict later adiposity. DESIGN: Population-based, prospective, longitudinal birth cohort study. Weights collected in infancy were used to calculate Z-scores for weight gain to age 1 year conditional on birth weight (CWG). To avoid multiple significance tests, variables from the parent questionnaire completed at age 1 year describing eating avidity were combined using general linear modelling to create an infancy avidity score. Anthropometry, skinfold thicknesses and bioelectrical impedance data collected at age 7-8 years were combined using factor analysis, to create an adiposity index. SETTING: Gateshead, UK. SUBJECTS: Members of the Gateshead Millennium Study cohort with data at both time points (n 561). RESULTS: CWG in infancy significantly predicted adiposity at age 7 years, but related more strongly to length and lean mass. High adiposity (> 90th internal percentile) at age 7 years was significantly associated with high CWG (relative risk 2·76; 95% CI 1·5, 5·1) in infancy, but less so with raised (> 74th internal percentile) eating avidity in infancy (relative risk 1·87; 95% CI 0·9, 3·7). However, the majority of children with high weight gain (77·6%) or avidity (85·5%) in infancy did not go on to have high adiposity at age 7 years. CONCLUSIONS: Rapid weight gain in infancy and the eating behaviours which relate to it do predict later adiposity, but are more strongly predictive of later stature and lean mass.

A qualitative study of organisational resilience in care homes in Scotland.

Providing care for the dependent older person is complex and there have been persistent concerns about care quality as well as a growing recognition of the need for systems approaches to improvement. The I-SCOPE (Improving Systems of Care for the Older person) project employed Resilient Healthcare (RHC) theory and the CARE (Concepts for Applying Resilience) Model to study how care organisations adapt to complexity in everyday work, with the aim of exploring how to support resilient performance. The project was an in-depth qualitative study across multiple sites over 24 months. There were: 68 hours of non-participant observation, shadowing care staff at work and starting broad before narrowing to observe care domains of interest; n = 33 recorded one-to-one interviews (32 care staff and one senior inspector); three focus groups (n = 19; two with inspectors and one multi-disciplinary group); and five round table discussions on emergent results at a final project workshop (n = 31). All interviews and discussion groups were recorded and transcribed verbatim. Resident and family interviews (n = 8) were facilitated through use of emotional touchpoints. Analysis using QSR NVivo 12.0 focused on a) capturing everyday work in terms of the interplay between demand and capacity, adaptations and intended and unintended outcomes and b) a higher-level thematic description (care planning and use of information; coordination of everyday care activity; providing person-centred care) which gives an overview of resilient performance and how it might be enhanced. This gives important new insight for improvement. Conclusions are that resilience can be supported through more efficient use of information, supporting flexible adaptation, coordination across care domains, design of the physical environment, and family involvement based on realistic conversations about quality of life.

Incidence of obesity during childhood and adolescence in a large contemporary cohort.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Timing of obesity development during childhood and adolescence is unclear, hindering preventive strategies. The primary aim of the present study was to quantify the incidence of overweight and obesity throughout childhood and adolescence in a large contemporary cohort of English children (the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, ALSPAC; children born 1991-1992). A secondary aim was to examine the persistence of overweight and obesity. METHODS: Longitudinal data on weight and height were collected annually from age 7-15 years in the entire ALSPAC cohort (n=4283), and from 3 to 15 years in a randomly selected subsample of the cohort (n=549; 'Children in Focus' CiF). Incidence of overweight and obesity (BMI (Body mass index) at or above the 85th and 95th centiles relative to U.K. reference data) was calculated. Risk ratios (RR) for overweight and obesity at 15 years based on weight status at 3, 7, and 11 years were also calculated. RESULTS: In the entire cohort, four-year incidence of obesity was higher between ages 7 and 11 years than between 11 and 15 years (5.0% vs. 1.4% respectively). In the CiF sub-sample, four-year incidence of obesity was also highest during mid-childhood (age 7-11years, 6.7%), slightly lower during early childhood (3-7 years, 5.1%) and lowest during adolescence (11-15 years 1.6%). Overweight and obesity at all ages had a strong tendency to persist to age 15 years as indicated by risk ratios (95% CI (Confidence interval)) for overweight and obesity at 15 years from overweight and obesity (relative to healthy weight status) at 3 years (2.4, 1.8-3.1), 7 years (4.6, 3.6-5.8), and 11 years (9.3, 6.5-13.2). CONCLUSION: Mid-late childhood (around age 7-11 years) may merit greater attention in future obesity prevention interventions.

Reconstructing past occupational exposures: how reliable are women's reports of their partner's occupation?

OBJECTIVES: Most of the evidence on agreement between self- and proxy-reported occupational data comes from interview-based studies. The authors aimed to examine agreement between women's reports of their partner's occupation and their partner's own description using questionnaire-based data collected as a part of the prospective, population-based Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. METHODS: Information on present occupation was self-reported by women's partners and proxy-reported by women through questionnaires administered at 8 and 21 months after the birth of a child. Job titles were coded to the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC2000) using software developed by the University of Warwick (Computer-Assisted Structured Coding Tool). The accuracy of proxy-report was expressed as percentage agreement and kappa coefficients for four-, three- and two-digit SOC2000 codes obtained in automatic and semiautomatic (manually improved) coding modes. Data from 6016 couples at 8 months and 5232 couples at 21 months postnatally were included in the analyses. RESULTS: The agreement between men's self-reported occupation and women's report of their partner's occupation in fully automatic coding mode at four-, three- and two-digit code level was 65%, 71% and 77% at 8 months and 68%, 73% and 76% at 21 months. The accuracy of agreement was slightly improved by semiautomatic coding of occupations: 73%/73%, 78%/77% and 83%/80% at 8/21 months respectively. While this suggests that women's description of their partners' occupation can be used as a valuable tool in epidemiological research where data from partners are not available, this study revealed no agreement between these young women and their partners at the two-digit level of SOC2000 coding in approximately one in five cases. CONCLUSION: Proxy reporting of occupation introduces a statistically significant degree of error in classification. The effects of occupational misclassification by proxy reporting in retrospective occupational epidemiological studies based on questionnaire data should be considered.