Incidence and Predictors of Progression to Chagas Cardiomyopathy: Long-Term Follow-Up of Trypanosoma cruzi-Seropositive Individuals.

BACKGROUND: There are few contemporary cohorts of Trypanosoma cruzi-seropositive individuals, and the basic clinical epidemiology of Chagas disease is poorly understood. Herein, we report the incidence of cardiomyopathy and death associated with T. cruzi seropositivity. METHODS: Participants were selected in blood banks at 2 Brazilian centers. Cases were defined as T. cruzi-seropositive blood donors. T. cruzi-seronegative controls were matched for age, sex, and period of donation. Patients with established Chagas cardiomyopathy were recruited from a tertiary outpatient service. Participants underwent medical examination, blood collection, ECG, and echocardiogram at enrollment (2008-2010) and at follow-up (2018-2019). The primary outcomes were all-cause mortality and development of cardiomyopathy, defined as the presence of a left ventricular ejection fraction <50% or QRS complex duration ≥120 ms, or both. To handle loss to follow-up, a sensitivity analysis was performed using inverse probability weights for selection. RESULTS: We enrolled 499 T. cruzi-seropositive donors (age 48±10 years, 52% male), 488 T. cruzi-seronegative donors (age 49±10 years, 49% male), and 101 patients with established Chagas cardiomyopathy (age 48±8 years, 59% male). The mortality in patients with established cardiomyopathy was 80.9 deaths/1000 person-years (py) (54/101, 53%) and 15.1 deaths/1000 py (17/114, 15%) in T. cruzi-seropositive donors with cardiomyopathy at baseline. Among T. cruzi-seropositive donors without cardiomyopathy at baseline, mortality was 3.7 events/1000 py (15/385, 4%), which was no different from T. cruzi-seronegative donors with 3.6 deaths/1000 py (17/488, 3%). The incidence of cardiomyopathy in T. cruzi-seropositive donors was 13.8 (95% CI, 9.5-19.6) events/1000 py (32/262, 12%) compared with 4.6 (95% CI, 2.3-8.3) events/1000 py (11/277, 4%) in seronegative controls, with an absolute incidence difference associated with T. cruzi seropositivity of 9.2 (95% CI, 3.6-15.0) events/1000 py. T. cruzi antibody level at baseline was associated with development of cardiomyopathy (adjusted odds ratio, 1.4 [95% CI, 1.1-1.8]). CONCLUSIONS: We present a comprehensive description of the natural history of T. cruzi seropositivity in a contemporary patient population. The results highlight the central importance of anti-T. cruzi antibody titer as a marker of Chagas disease activity and risk of progression.

Cytokine gene functional polymorphisms and phenotypic expression as predictors of evolution from latent to clinical rheumatic heart disease.

INTRODUCTION: Inflammation associated with rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is influenced by gene polymorphisms and inflammatory cytokines. There are currently no immunologic and genetic markers to discriminate latent versus clinical patients, critical to predict disease evolution. Employing machine-learning, we searched for predictors that could discriminate latent versus clinical RHD, and eventually identify latent patients that may progress to clinical disease. METHODS: A total of 212 individuals were included, 77 with latent, 100 with clinical RHD, and 35 healthy controls. Circulating levels of 27 soluble factors were evaluated using Bio-Plex ProTM® Human Cytokine Standard 27-plex assay. Gene polymorphism analyses were performed using RT-PCR for the following genes: IL2, IL4, IL6, IL10, IL17A, TNF and IL23. RESULTS: Serum levels of all cytokines were higher in clinical as compared to latent RHD patients, and in those groups than in controls. IL-4, IL-8, IL-1RA, IL-9, CCL5 and PDGF emerged in the final multivariate model as predictive factors for clinical, compared with latent RHD. IL-4, IL-8 and IL1RA had the greater power to predict clinical RHD. In univariate analysis, polymorphisms in IL2 and IL4 were associated with clinical RHD and in the logistic analysis, IL6 (GG + CG), IL10 (CT + TT), IL2 (CA + AA) and IL4 (CC) genotypes were associated with RHD. CONCLUSION: Despite higher levels of all cytokines in clinical RHD patients, IL-4, IL-8 and IL-1RA were the best predictors of clinical disease. An association of polymorphisms in IL2, IL4, IL6 and IL10 genes and clinical RHD was observed. Gene polymorphism and phenotypic expression of IL-4 accurately discriminate latent versus clinical RHD, potentially instructing clinical management.

Factors associated with compliance to AHA/ACC performance measures in a myocardial infarction system of care in Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate compliance with American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology (AHA/ACC) performance measures for adults with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and to investigate the factors associated with compliance, in an AMI System of Care in Brazil. DESIGN: Observational longitudinal study. SETTING: A high-complexity University Hospital, part of the AMI System of Care implemented in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, in 2010. PARTICIPANTS: Of note, 1129 patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) admitted to a single center over 36 months (between 2011 and 2014). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Compliance with 13 pre-specified AHA/ACC AMI performance measures was evaluated for patients with AMI, observing exclusion criteria and appropriate numerators and denominators. Median compliance was calculated and variables independently associated with compliance rates were evaluated. RESULTS: Median age was 60 (51/68) years, 67.7% male, 69.8% presented with STEMI and hospital mortality was 8.7%. Median compliance with performance measures was 83% (75/88). Among patients with STEMI, 56% received reperfusion therapy. Overall, 67.3% of patients complied with ≥80% of quality measures. Factors independently associated with better compliance were later date of presentation (semester), likely reflecting ongoing training (OR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10-1.28, P < 0.001), male gender (OR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.00-1.76, P < 0.046), Killip I/II on admission (OR = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.36-2.80, P < 0.001) and diagnosis of NSTEMI (OR = 5.0, 95% CI: 3.51-7.11, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Compliance with AHA/ACC AMI performance measures remains below target in Brazil, but the time trends observed suggest improvement. Continuing education, reduction of system delays and prioritizing high-risk groups are needed to optimize AMI systems of care and improve patient outcomes.

Predictors of ischemic stroke in Chagas disease: Insights into mechanisms beyond cardiomyopathy severity.

BACKGROUND: Chagas disease is a risk factor for ischemic stroke, which causes high mortality rates and significant disability. This study aims to determine the incidence and risk factors for ischemic strokes in a large cohort of Chagas cardiomyopathy patients, with a particular focus on the mechanisms involved in the pathophysiology of stroke in this condition. METHODS: The study enrolled 517 patients with Chagas cardiomyopathy who were referred to our institution from March 2000 to December 2021. All patients underwent systematic cardiological and neurological assessments. The primary outcome was the occurrence of ischemic stroke during the follow-up period, classified based on the SSS-TOAST and CCS criteria. Natural cubic splines functions were applied to examine the potential nonlinear association between continuous variables and stroke risk. RESULTS: The mean age of the cohort was 52 ± 13 years, and 299 (58 %) were men. During a mean follow-up period of 4.8 years (interquartile range-IQR 1.1 to 7.1 years), a total of 72 patients (14.8 %) had an ischemic stroke, being fatal in 10. The overall incidence rate of ischemic stroke was 3.0/100 patient-years (95 % confidence interval 2.4 to 3.8). The stroke subtypes were cardioembolic (n = 41), undetermined (n = 11), and other subtypes (n = 20). The predictors of stroke were age, left atrial volume, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), LV thrombus and prior stroke with thrombus. There was a nonlinear relationship between stroke risk, LVEF, and left atrial volume. A bimodal distribution of stroke occurrences was observed according to the severity of LV dysfunction, with a threshold for LVEF of 45 %. The final model for stroke risk prediction showed good discrimination, with a C statistic of 0.775. CONCLUSIONS: In a contemporary cohort of Chagas disease patients with a broad spectrum of disease severity, stroke incidence remains high despite anticoagulation. Stroke risk shows a nonlinear association with ventricular dysfunction and left atrial size, highlighting a distinct bimodal pattern of stroke occurrence in Chagas disease.

Outcomes of latent rheumatic heart disease: External validation of a simplified score in patients with and without secondary prophylaxis.

BACKGROUND: Secondary antibiotic prophylaxis reduces progression of latent rheumatic heart disease (RHD) but not all children benefit. Improved risk stratification could refine recommendations following positive screening. We aimed to evaluate the performance of a previously developed echocardiographic risk score to predict mid-term outcomes among children with latent RHD. METHODS: We included children who completed the GOAL, a randomized trial of secondary antibiotic prophylaxis among children with latent RHD in Uganda. Outcomes were determined by a 4-member adjudication panel. We applied the point-based score, consisting of 5 variables (mitral valve (MV) anterior leaflet thickening (3 points), MV excessive leaflet tip motion (3 points), MV regurgitation jet length ≥ 2 cm (6 points), aortic valve focal thickening (4 points) and any aortic regurgitation (5 points)), to panel results. Unfavorable outcome was defined as progression of diagnostic category (borderline to definite, mild definite to moderate/severe definite), worsening valve involvement or remaining with mild definite RHD. RESULTS: 799 patients (625 borderline and 174 definite RHD) were included, with median follow-up of 24 months. At total 116 patients (14.5%) had unfavorable outcome per study criteria, 57.8% not under prophylaxis. The score was strongly associated with unfavorable outcome (HR = 1.26, 95% CI 1.16-1.37, p < 0.001). Unfavorable outcome rates in low (≤6 points), intermediate (7-9 points) and high-risk (≥10 points) children at follow-up were 11.8%, 30.4%, and 42.2%, (p < 0.001) respectively (C-statistic = 0.64 (95% CI 0.59-0.69)). CONCLUSIONS: The simple risk score provided an accurate prediction of RHD status at 2-years, showing a good performance in a population with milder RHD phenotypes.

Health Education about Rheumatic Heart Disease: A Community-Based Cluster Randomized Trial: Rheumatic Heart Disease Educational Strategies.

Introduction: The burden of rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is still high in Brazil. Lack of population awareness about the disease limits the efficacy of prevention programs. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of education on RHD in schools, comparing the conventional expository teaching method with tablet-based worked examples. Method: A prospective, cluster randomized trial was conducted over eight months in six randomly selected low-income Brazilian public schools. Each class was considered a cluster (total: 90), being randomized 1:1 to receive one of the educational methods. Pre-test evaluated students' prior knowledge on RHD. Post-tests, 10 days, and three months later, evaluated retention of knowledge. Results: At total 1,301 students (52% female) completed the study, being 63% from high school. Baseline knowledge about RHD was universally low (average score expository classes [G1] 33.9% vs. worked examples [G2] 32.5%, p = 0.23). A significant but similar improvement was observed in both groups in the immediate post-test (pre- vs. post: p < 0.001): G1 57.5% vs. G2 56.7%, p = 0.69. In the late post-test, a significant 20% worsening was observed in both groups and the final scores were again similar: G1 45.0% vs. G2 45.9%, p = 0.87. Highschool students had higher scores (p < 0.001), and girls had better overall performances than boys (p < 0.001). Conclusion: The novel technology of tablet-based worked examples had similar results compared with expository classes for RHD education in schools. Both educational processes resulted in modest gains in knowledge, with low retention. More studies are needed to determine if increased knowledge leads to behavioral changes that could reduce RHD burden. Highlights: In a cluster-randomized trial, two different educational strategies about Rheumatic Heart Disease (RHD) for children - standard expository classes and worked examples based on interactive modules in tablet computers - were compared in public schools of underserved Brazilian neighborhoods.Baseline knowledge was low, and the novel tablet-based technology had similar results compared with traditional teaching for RHD education in schools, with no differences in acquisition and mid-term retention of knowledge.Both educational interventions resulted in similar 71% improvement in the immediate post-test, although with suboptimal retention, with over 20% worsening in three months in both groups.Our data suggests that the optimal strategy for RHD education is yet to be determined, and future studies should be warranted to determine if increased knowledge leads to behavioral changes that could reduce disease burden in endemic areas.

Heart rate variability as predictor of mortality in sepsis: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is a serious medical condition with increasing prevalence and high mortality. The role of the autonomic nervous system in pathophysiology of sepsis has been increasingly researched. The objective of this study is to evaluate the Heart rate variability (HRV) as a predictor of mortality in septic patients. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort of patients diagnosed with sepsis. Patient recruitment was carried out at ICU in tertiary university hospital between March 2012 and February 2014. Clinical data and laboratory exams were collected at admission. Each patient underwent a 20-minute Holter and a 24-hour Holter on the first day of enrollment. The primary outcome was the 28-day all-cause mortality. RESULTS: A total of 63 patients were included. Patients were categorized into nonsurvivor group (n = 16) or survivor group (n = 47) depending on this endpoint. Survivors were younger (48.6 years vs. 63.0 years), had better renal function and lower values in severity scores (APACHE II and SOFA) compared to nonsurvivors. In the 20-minute Holter, SDNN, Total Power, VLF Power, LF Power and LF/HF of nonsurvivors were significantly lower than those of survivors (p = <0.001, p = 0.003, p = 0.002, p = 0.006, p = 0.009 respectively). ROC curve of SDNN was built, showing area under the curve of 0.772 (0.638-0.906) for mortality. The value of 17ms was chosen as best SDNN cutoff to discriminate survivors and nonsurvivors. In the Cox proportional regression, adjusted for SOFA score and for APACHE II, a SDNN ≤ 17ms was associated with a greater risk of death, with hazard ratios of 6.3 (1.4-28.0; p = 0.015) and 5.5 (1,2-24,8; p = 0.027), respectively. The addition of the dichotomized SDNN to the SOFA model reduced AIC and increased the concordance statistic and the R2, indicating that predictive power of the SDNN + SOFA model is better than predictive power of SOFA only. CONCLUSIONS: Several HRV parameters are reduced in nonsurviving septic patients. SDNN ≤17 is a risk factor for death in septic patients, even after adjusting for severity scores.

A single FTO gene variant rs9939609 is associated with body weight evolution in a multiethnic extremely obese population that underwent bariatric surgery.

OBJECTIVES: The rs9939609 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the fat mass and obesity-associated (FTO) gene is involved in obesity. Few studies have been conducted on patients who underwent bariatric surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of FTO SNPs on body weight, body composition, and weight regain during a 60-mo follow-up period after bariatric surgery. METHODS: The rs9939609 was genotyped in 146 individuals using a real-time polymerase chain reaction TaqMan assay. Data for lifestyle, comorbidities, body weight, body mass index (BMI), excess weight loss (EWL), and body composition were obtained before and 6, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48, and 60 mo after surgery. Data were analyzed by comparing two groups of patients according to rs9939609 FTO gene polymorphism. Mixed-regression models were constructed to evaluate the dynamics of body weight, BMI, and EWL over time in female patients. RESULTS: No differences were observed between the groups during the first 24 mo after surgery. After 36, 48, and 60 mo, body weight, fat mass, and BMI were higher, whereas fat-free mass and EWL were lower in the FTO-SNP patient group. Weight regain was more frequent and occurred sooner in the FTO-SNP group. CONCLUSIONS: There is a different evolution of weight loss in obese carriers of the FTO gene variant rs9939609 after bariatric surgery. However, this pattern was evident at only 2 y postbariatric surgery, inducing a lower proportion of surgery success and a greater and earlier weight regain.