A cross-sectional pilot household study of Schistosoma mansoni burden and associated morbidities in Lake Albert, Uganda.

OBJECTIVES: Schistosomiasis is persistent in Lake Albert, Uganda, but local data are limited. This study aims to describe the local burden of moderate-to-heavy infection and associated morbidity in all ages and identify factors associated with these outcomes to guide further research. METHODS: This cross-sectional pilot study was conducted in July-August, 2022 in four village sites (Walukuba, Rwentale, Kyabarangwa and Runga) of the Praziquantel in Preschoolers (PIP) trial. Residents (approximately four per household) of any age of households of PIP participants were eligible, but individuals <10 years were only enrolled if no older individuals were available. Socio-demographic information, household location, single stool Kato-Katz and hepatic ultrasound results were obtained for a convenience sampled subset of trial households. The primary outcome, moderate-to-heavy infection (≥100 eggs per gram of faeces), was analysed using mixed-effects logistic regression, with a household random effect. Univariate analyses were used for the secondary outcome, periportal fibrosis (Niamey protocol ultrasound image pattern C-F). RESULTS: Of 243 participants with a median age of 22 (interquartile range 12-33) years from 66 households, 49.8% (103/207 with a Kato-Katz result) had moderate-to-heavy infection and 11.2% (25/224 with ultrasound data) had periportal fibrosis. Moderate-to-heavy infection clustered by household (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.11) and, in multivariable analysis, varied by village (Walukuba vs. Kyabarangwa adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.11, 95% CI 0.02-0.71), was highest in participants aged 10-15 years (vs. 5-9 years aOR 6.14, 95% CI 1.61-23.38) and lower in those reporting praziquantel treatment in the past year (aOR 0.39, 95% CI 0.18-0.88). CONCLUSIONS: In this setting, schistosome infection and morbidity are pervasive in all age groups. More intensive interventions are needed, for example more frequent praziquantel treatment, under investigation in the PIP trial and improved water and sanitation. More research is needed to understand local treatment barriers and optimal control strategies.

Sustainable Surveillance of Neglected Tropical Diseases for the Post-Elimination Era.

The World Health Organization's (WHO's) 2030 road map for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) emphasizes the importance of strengthened, institutionalized "post-elimination" surveillance. The required shift from disease-siloed, campaign-based programming to routine, integrated surveillance and response activities presents epidemiological, logistical, and financial challenges, yet practical guidance on implementation is lacking. Nationally representative survey programs, such as demographic and health surveys (DHS), may offer a platform for the integration of NTD surveillance within national health systems and health information systems. Here, we describe characteristics of DHS and other surveys conducted within the WHO Africa region in terms of frequency, target populations, and sample types and discuss applicability for post-validation and post-elimination surveillance. Maximizing utility depends not only on the availability of improved diagnostics but also on better understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of transmission at low prevalence. To this end, we outline priorities for obtaining additional data to better characterize optimal post-elimination surveillance platforms.

Podoconiosis in Uganda: prevalence, geographical distribution and risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Podoconiosis is a neglected debilitating yet preventable disease. Despite its public health significance, podoconiosis is often misdiagnosed and confused with lymphatic filariasis. No appropriate diagnostic tests exist, contributing to underestimation and the absence of control interventions. METHODS: A population-based cross-sectional survey was conducted in seven districts with suspected or reported cases of podoconiosis or an altitude of 1200 m above sea level. Conducted from 30 January to 19 March 2023, the survey employed multilevel stratified sampling to reach eligible household members. RESULTS: Of the 10 023 participants sampled, 187 (confidence interval 1.25 to 2.78) had clinical features of podoconiosis. The highest prevalence was recorded in Nakapiripirit (7.2% [58/809]) and Sironko (2.8 [44/1564]) and the lowest in Kasese (0.3% [5/1537]), but ranged from 1.1 to 1.8% in Zombo, Rukungiri, Gomba and Hoima districts. The duration of podoconiosis was reported to range from 1 to 57 y. Factors associated with podoconiosis occurrence included advanced age, tungiasis, household cleanliness and personal hygiene. Sleeping on a bed, bathing daily, use of soap and use of footwear in at least moderate condition were protective against podoconiosis. CONCLUSIONS: Podoconiosis occurred in all the sampled districts and was linked to personal hygiene. Long-standing cases suggest an absence of treatment. There is potential for early intervention using a holistic care model in managing this condition. Urgent action and stakeholder engagement are essential for effective podoconiosis management.

Development of an integrated and decentralised skin health strategy to improve experiences of skin neglected tropical diseases and other skin conditions in Atwima Mponua District, Ghana.

Integrated strategies are recommended to tackle neglected tropical diseases of the skin (skin NTDs), which pose a substantial health and economic burden in many countries, including Ghana. We describe the development of an integrated and decentralised skin health strategy designed to improve experiences of skin NTDs in Atwima Mponua district in Ashanti Region. A multidisciplinary research team led an iterative process to develop an overall strategy and specific interventions, based on a theory of change informed by formative research conducted in Atwima Mponua district. The process involved preparatory work, four co-development workshops (August 2021 to November 2022), collaborative working groups to operationalise intervention components, and obtaining ethical approval. Stakeholders including affected individuals, caregivers, other community members and actors from different levels of the health system participated in co-development activities. We consulted these stakeholders at each stage of the research process, including discussion of study findings, development of our theory of change, identifying implementable solutions to identified challenges, and protocol development. Participants determined that the intervention should broadly address wounds and other skin conditions, rather than only skin NTDs, and should avoid reliance on non-governmental organisations and research teams to ensure sustainable implementation by district health teams and transferability elsewhere. The overall strategy was designed to focus on a decentralised model of care for skin conditions, while including other interventions to support a self-care delivery pathway, community engagement, and referral. Our theory of change describes the pathways through which these interventions are expected to achieve the strategy's aim, the assumptions, and problems addressed. This complex intervention strategy has been designed to respond to the local context, while maximising transferability to ensure wider relevance. Implementation is expected to begin in 2023.

Improving experiences of neglected tropical diseases of the skin: Mixed methods formative research for development of a complex intervention in Atwima Mponua District, Ghana.

Integrated approaches to managing co-endemic neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) of the skin within primary healthcare services are complex and require tailoring to local contexts. We describe formative research in Atwima Mponua District in Ghana's Ashanti Region designed to inform the development of a sustainable intervention to improve access to skin NTD care. We employed a convergent, parallel, mixed-methods design, collecting data from February 2021 to February 2022. We quantitatively assessed service readiness using a standardised checklist and reviewed outpatient department registers and condition-specific case records in all government health facilities in the district. Alongside a review of policy documents, we conducted 49 interviews and 7 focus group discussions with purposively selected affected persons, caregivers, community members, health workers, and policy-makers to understand skin NTD care-seeking practices and the policy landscape. Outside the district hospital, skin NTD reporting rates in the surveyed facilities were low; supply chains for skin NTD diagnostics, consumables, and medicines had gaps; and health worker knowledge of skin NTDs was limited. Affected people described fragmented care, provided mostly by hospitals (often outside the district) or traditional healers, resulting in challenges obtaining timely diagnosis and treatment and high care-seeking costs. Affected people experienced stigma, although the extent to which stigma influenced care-seeking behaviour was unclear. National actors were more optimistic than district-level actors about local resource availability for skin NTD care and were sceptical of including traditional healers in interventions. Our findings indicate that improvement of the care cascade for affected individuals to reduce the clinical, economic, and psychosocial impact of skin NTDs is likely to require a complementary set of interventions. These findings have informed the design of a strategy to support high-quality, integrated, decentralised care for skin NTDs in Atwima Mponua, which will be assessed through a multidisciplinary evaluation.

Research priorities to support the development of integrated national strategies to control skin-neglected tropical diseases.

BACKGROUND: Skin-presenting neglected tropical diseases (skin-NTDs) impose large burdens on affected people, families and communities. The NTD Roadmap 2021-2030 presents a strategic plan to guide collaborative, multisectoral action to overcome these burdens, defining targets to control, eliminate and/or eradicate skin-NTDs by 2030. One of its targets is for 40 countries to adopt integrated skin-NTD strategies. Despite this high-level support for integration, only four countries were implementing integrated skin-NTD strategies in 2020. METHODS: We hosted workshops at the 2021 annual meeting of the Coalition for Operational Research on NTDs, to discuss the operationalisation of Roadmap goals into national strategies and interventions for skin-NTD control. Speakers included NTD Programme Managers from NTD-endemic countries, technical experts and researchers of different aspects of skin-NTDs. RESULTS: Challenges include community perceptions of interventions, demonstrating the cost-effectiveness of integrated care, availability and accessibility of community-based and primary healthcare services, the quality of data on skin-NTD morbidity and changes to operational structures required for integration. Research priorities included the identification of optimal case detection platforms, evaluation of integrated care, understanding the impacts of integration on community members and community health staff and development of point-of-care diagnostics. CONCLUSIONS: The operational research priorities are intended to support the scale-up of integrated skin-NTDs programmes.

Implementation of a formal sleep center-based screening protocol for primary aldosteronism in patients with obstructive sleep apnea.

BACKGROUND: There is a bidirectional association between primary aldosteronism and obstructive sleep apnea, with evidence suggesting that the treatment of primary aldosteronism can reduce obstructive sleep apnea severity. Current guidelines recommend screening for primary aldosteronism in patients with comorbid hypertension and obstructive sleep apnea, identifying potential candidates for treatment. However, emerging data suggest current screening practices are unsatisfactory. Moreover, data regarding the true incidence of primary aldosteronism among this population are limited. This study aimed to assess the primary aldosteronism screening rate among patients with obstructive sleep apnea and hypertension at our institution and estimate the prevalence of primary aldosteronism among this population. METHODS: Sleep studies conducted at our institution between January and September 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. Adult patients with a sleep study diagnostic of obstructive sleep apnea (respiratory disturbance index ≥5) and a diagnosis of hypertension were included. Patient medical records were reviewed and laboratory data of those with biochemical screening for primary aldosteronism were assessed by an experienced endocrinologist. Screening rates were compared before and after initiation of a screening protocol in accordance with the 2016 Endocrine Society guidelines. RESULTS: A total of 1,005 patients undergoing sleep studies were reviewed; 354 patients had comorbid obstructive sleep apnea and hypertension. Patients were predominantly male (67%), with a mean age of 58 years (standard deviation = 12.9) and mean body mass index of 34 (standard deviation = 8.1). The screening rate for primary aldosteronism among included patients was 19% (n = 67). The screening rate was significantly higher after initiation of a dedicated primary aldosteronism screening protocol (23% vs 12% prior; P = .01). Fourteen screens (21%) were positive for primary aldosteronism, whereas 45 (67%) were negative and 8 (12%) were indeterminate. Four had prior abdominal cross-sectional imaging, with 3 revealing an adrenal adenoma. Compared with patients without primary aldosteronism, patients with positive primary aldosteronism screens were more likely to have a history of hypokalemia (36% vs 4.4%; P = .002). The frequency of hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, and left ventricular hypertrophy did not differ between patients with positive versus negative screens. CONCLUSION: Current screening practices for primary aldosteronism among patients with comorbid obstructive sleep apnea and hypertension are suboptimal. Patients evaluated at sleep centers may represent an optimal population for screening, as the prevalence of primary aldosteronism among this cohort appears high.

The contribution of active case detection to malaria elimination in Thailand.

INTRODUCTION: Thailand's malaria surveillance system complements passive case detection with active case detection (ACD), comprising proactive ACD (PACD) methods and reactive ACD (RACD) methods that target community members near index cases. However, it is unclear if these resource-intensive surveillance strategies continue to provide useful yield. This study aimed to document the evolution of the ACD programme and to assess the potential to optimise PACD and RACD. METHODS: This study used routine data from all 6 292 302 patients tested for malaria from fiscal year 2015 (FY15) to FY21. To assess trends over time and geography, ACD yield was defined as the proportion of cases detected among total screenings. To investigate geographical variation in yield from FY17 to FY21, we used intercept-only generalised linear regression models (binomial distribution), allowing random intercepts at different geographical levels. A costing analysis gathered the incremental financial costs for one instance of ACD per focus. RESULTS: Test positivity for ACD was low (0.08%) and declined over time (from 0.14% to 0.03%), compared with 3.81% for passive case detection (5.62%-1.93%). Whereas PACD and RACD contributed nearly equal proportions of confirmed cases in FY15, by FY21 PACD represented just 32.37% of ACD cases, with 0.01% test positivity. Each geography showed different yields. We provide a calculator for PACD costs, which vary widely. RACD costs an expected US$226 per case investigation survey (US$1.62 per person tested) or US$461 per mass blood survey (US$1.10 per person tested). CONCLUSION: ACD yield, particularly for PACD, is waning alongside incidence, offering an opportunity to optimise. PACD may remain useful only in specific microcontexts with sharper targeting and implementation. RACD could be narrowed by defining demographic-based screening criteria rather than geographical based. Ultimately, ACD can continue to contribute to Thailand's malaria elimination programme but with more deliberate targeting to balance operational costs.

Individual Risk Factors of Mycetoma Occurrence in Eastern Sennar Locality, Sennar State, Sudan: A Case-Control Study.

Mycetoma is a serious chronic subcutaneous granulomatous inflammatory disease that is endemic in tropical and subtropical regions, where it impacts profoundly on patients, families, and communities. Individual-level risk factors for the disease are poorly understood. To address this, a case-control study was conducted based on data collected from 60 villages in Eastern Sennar Locality, Sennar State, Sudan. Based on the presence of swelling in any part of the body, or sinus formation with or without grain discharge evident from the lesion by ultrasound examination, we diagnosed 359 cases of mycetoma. For each case, we included three healthy sex-matched persons, with no evidence of mycetoma, from the same village as the control group (n = 1077). The odds for mycetoma were almost three times higher in individuals in the age group 16-30 years (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 2.804, 95% CI = 1.424-5.523) compared to those in age group ≤ 15 years. Other factors contributing to the odds of mycetoma were history of local trauma (AOR = 1.892, 95% CI = 1.425-2.513), being unmarried (AOR = 3.179, 95% CI = 2.339-4.20) and owning livestock (AOR = 3.941, 95% CI = 2.874-5.405). In conclusion, certain factors found to be associated with mycetoma in this study could inform a high index of suspicion for mycetoma diagnosis, which would improve early case detection. Other factors found to be associated could inform the development of an interventional program for mycetoma control in Sudan, including education on healthy farming practices and the risks of puncture wounds for individuals residing in endemic areas. However, this work was conducted in one endemic state, while mycetoma cases occur in all states of Sudan. Replicating this study over a wider area would give a fuller picture of the situation, providing the control program with more comprehensive information on the risk factors for the disease.

Global estimates of pregnancies at risk of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infection in 2020 and changes in risk patterns since 2000.

BACKGROUND: Women are at risk of severe adverse pregnancy outcomes attributable to Plasmodium spp. infection in malaria-endemic areas. Malaria control efforts since 2000 have aimed to reduce this burden of disease. METHODS: We used data from the Malaria Atlas Project and WorldPop to calculate global pregnancies at-risk of Plasmodium spp. infection. We categorised pregnancies as occurring in areas of stable and unstable P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission. We further stratified stable endemicity as hypo-endemic, meso-endemic, hyper-endemic, or holo-endemic, and estimated pregnancies at risk in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2017, and 2020. FINDINGS: In 2020, globally 120.4M pregnancies were at risk of P. falciparum, two-thirds (81.0M, 67.3%) were in areas of stable transmission; 85 2M pregnancies were at risk of P. vivax, 93.9% (80.0M) were in areas of stable transmission. An estimated 64.6M pregnancies were in areas with both P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission. The number of pregnancies at risk of each of P. falciparum and P. vivax worldwide decreased between 2000 and 2020, with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa, where the total number of pregnancies at risk of P. falciparum increased from 37 3M in 2000 to 52 4M in 2020. INTERPRETATION: Historic investments in malaria control have reduced the number of women at risk of malaria in pregnancy in all endemic regions except sub-Saharan Africa. Population growth in Africa has outpaced reductions in malaria prevalence. Interventions that reduce the risk of malaria in pregnancy are needed as much today as ever.

Effectiveness of community-based burden estimation to achieve elimination of lymphatic filariasis: A comparative cross-sectional investigation in Côte d'Ivoire.

For lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination, endemic countries must document the burden of LF morbidity (LFM). Community-based screening (CBS) is used to collect morbidity data, but evidence demonstrating its reliability is limited. Recent pilots of CBS for LFM alongside mass drug administration (MDA) in Côte d'Ivoire suggested low LFM prevalence (2.1-2.2 per 10,000). We estimated LFM prevalence in Bongouanou District, Côte d'Ivoire, using a comparative cross-sectional design. We compared CBS implemented independently of MDA, adapted from existing Ministry of Health protocols, to a population-based prevalence survey led by formally trained nurses. We evaluated the reliability of case identification, coverage, equity, and cost of CBS. CBS identified 87.4 cases of LFM per 10,000; the survey identified 47.5 (39.4-56.3; prevalence ratio [PR] 1.84; 95% CI 1.64-2.07). CBS identified 39.7 cases of suspect lymphoedema per 10,000; the survey confirmed 35.1 (29.2-41.5) filarial lymphoedema cases per 10,000 (PR 1.13 [0.98-1.31]). CBS identified 96.5 scrotal swellings per 10,000; the survey found 91.3 (83.2-99.8; PR 1.06 [0.93-1.21]); including 33.9 (27.7-38.8) filarial hydrocoele per 10,000 (PR of suspect to confirmed hydrocele 2.93 [2.46-3.55]). Positive predictive values for case identification through CBS were 65.0% (55.8-73.5%) for filarial lymphoedema; 93.7% (89.3-96.7%) for scrotal swellings; and 34.0% (27.3-41.2%) for filarial hydrocoele. Households of lower socioeconomic status and certain minority languages were at risk of exclusion. Direct financial costs were $0.17 per individual targeted and $69.62 per case confirmed. Our community-based approach to LFM burden estimation appears scalable and provided reliable prevalence estimates for LFM, scrotal swellings and LF-lymphoedema. The results represent a step-change improvement on CBS integrated with MDA, whilst remaining at programmatically feasible costs. Filarial hydrocoele cases were overestimated, attributable to the use of case definitions suitable for mass-screening by informal staff. Our findings are broadly applicable to countries aiming for LF elimination using CBS. The abstract is available in French in the S1 File.

Modelling the spatial distribution of mycetoma in Sudan.

BACKGROUND: Mycetoma is a neglected tropical disease that is reported worldwide and Sudan has the highest reported number of mycetoma infections across the globe. The incidence, prevalence and burden of mycetoma globally are not precisely known and its risk factors remain largely unelucidated. METHODS: This study aimed to identify the environmental predictors of fungal and bacterial mycetoma in Sudan and to identify areas of the country where these niche predictors are met. Demographic and clinical data from confirmed mycetoma patients seen at the Mycetoma Research Centre from 1991 to 2018 were included in this study. Regression and machine learning techniques were used to model the relationships between mycetoma occurrence in Sudan and environmental predictors. RESULTS: The strongest predictors of mycetoma occurrence were aridity, proximity to water, low soil calcium and sodium concentrations and the distribution of various species of thorny trees. The models predicted the occurrence of eumycetoma and actinomycetoma in the central and southeastern states of Sudan and along the Nile river valley and its tributaries. CONCLUSION: Our results showed that the risk of mycetoma in Sudan varies geographically and is linked to identifiable environmental risk factors. Suitability maps are intended to guide health authorities, academic institutes and organisations involved in planning national scale surveys for early case detection and management, leading to better patient treatment, prevention and control of mycetoma.

Mapping suitability for Buruli ulcer at fine spatial scales across Africa: A modelling study.

Buruli ulcer (BU) is a disabling and stigmatising neglected tropical disease (NTD). Its distribution and burden are unknown because of underdiagnosis and underreporting. It is caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans, an environmental pathogen whose environmental niche and transmission routes are not fully understood. The main control strategy is active surveillance to promote early treatment and thus limit morbidity, but these activities are mostly restricted to well-known endemic areas. A better understanding of environmental suitability for the bacterium and disease could inform targeted surveillance, and advance understanding of the ecology and burden of BU. We used previously compiled point-level datasets of BU and M. ulcerans occurrence, evidence for BU occurrence within national and sub-national areas, and a suite of relevant environmental covariates in a distribution modelling framework. We fitted relationships between BU and M. ulcerans occurrence and environmental predictors by applying regression and machine learning based algorithms, combined in an ensemble model to characterise the optimal ecological niche for the disease and bacterium across Africa at a resolution of 5km x 5km. Proximity to waterbodies was the strongest predictor of suitability for BU, followed potential evapotranspiration. The strongest predictors of suitability for M. ulcerans were deforestation and potential evapotranspiration. We identified patchy foci of suitability throughout West and Central Africa, including areas with no previous evidence of the disease. Predicted suitability for M. ulcerans was wider but overlapping with that of BU. The estimated population living in areas predicted suitable for the bacterium and disease was 46.1 million. These maps could be used to inform burden estimations and case searches which would generate a more complete understanding of the spatial distribution of BU in Africa, and may guide control programmes to identify cases beyond the well-known endemic areas.

Prevalence and intensity of soil-transmitted helminth infections of children in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a geospatial analysis.

BACKGROUND: Driven by global targets to eliminate soil-transmitted helminths as a public health problem, governments have rapidly rolled out control programmes using school and community-based platforms. To justify and target ongoing investment, quantification of impact and identification of remaining high-risk areas are needed. We aimed to assess regional progress towards these targets. METHODS: We did a continental-scale ecological analysis using a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model to estimate the effects of known environmental, socioeconomic, and control-related factors on the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths, and we mapped the probability that implementation units had achieved moderate-to-heavy intensity infection prevalence of less than 2% among children aged 5-14 years between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2018. FINDINGS: We incorporated data from 26 304 georeferenced surveys, spanning 3096 (60%) of the 5183 programmatic implementation units. Our findings suggest a reduction in the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths in children aged 5-14 years in sub-Saharan Africa, from 44% in 2000 to 13% in 2018, driven by sustained delivery of preventive chemotherapy, improved sanitation, and economic development. Nevertheless, 1301 (25%) of 5183 implementation units still had an estimated prevalence of moderate-to-heavy intensity infection exceeding the 2% target threshold in 2018, largely concentrated in nine countries (in 1026 [79%] of 1301 implementation units): Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Cameroon, Angola, Mozambique, Madagascar, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates highlight the areas to target and strengthen interventions, and the areas where data gaps remain. If elimination of soil-transmitted helminths as a public health problem is to be achieved in sub-Saharan Africa by 2030, continued investment in treatment and prevention activities are essential to ensure that no areas are left behind. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Evaluating survey designs for targeting preventive chemotherapy against Schistosoma haematobium and Schistosoma mansoni across sub-Saharan Africa: a geostatistical analysis and modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Schistosomiasis control programmes primarily use school-based surveys to identify areas for mass drug administration of preventive chemotherapy. However, as the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis can be highly focal, transmission may not be detected by surveys implemented at districts or larger spatial units. Improved mapping strategies are required to accurately and cost-effectively target preventive chemotherapy to remaining foci across all possible spatial distributions of schistosomiasis. METHODS: Here, we use geostatistical models to quantify the spatial heterogeneity of Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni across sub-Saharan Africa using the most comprehensive dataset available on school-based surveys. Applying this information to parameterise simulations, we assess the accuracy and cost of targeting alternative implementation unit sizes across the range of plausible schistosomiasis distributions. We evaluate the consequences of decisions based on survey designs implemented at district and subdistrict levels sampling different numbers of schools. Cost data were obtained from field surveys conducted across multiple countries and years, with cost effectiveness evaluated as the cost per correctly identified school. RESULTS: Models identified marked differences in prevalence and spatial distributions between countries and species; however, results suggest implementing surveys at subdistrict level increase the accuracy of treatment classifications across most scenarios. While sampling intensively at the subdistrict level resulted in the highest classification accuracy, this sampling strategy resulted in the highest costs. Alternatively, sampling the same numbers of schools currently recommended at the district level but stratifying by subdistrict increased cost effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a new tool to evaluate schistosomiasis survey designs across a range of transmission settings. Results highlight the importance of considering spatial structure when designing sampling strategies, illustrating that a substantial proportion of children may be undertreated even when an implementation unit is correctly classified. Control programmes need to weigh the increased accuracy of more detailed mapping strategies against the survey costs and treatment priorities.

Developing consensus of evidence to target case finding surveys for podoconiosis: a potentially forgotten disease in India.

BACKGROUND: Podoconiosis is a non-infectious geochemical lymphoedema of the lower legs associated with a significant burden of morbidity. There are historical reports of podoconiosis in India, but its current endemicity status is uncertain. In this investigation we aimed to prioritise the selection of districts for pilot mapping of podoconiosis in India. METHODS: Through a consultative workshop bringing together expert opinion on podoconiosis with public health and NTDs in India, we developed a framework for the prioritisation of pilot areas. The four criteria for prioritisation were predicted environmental suitability for podoconiosis, higher relative poverty, occurrence of lymphoedema cases detected by the state health authorities and absence of morbidity management and disability prevention (MMDP) services provided by the National Programme for Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis. RESULTS: Environmental suitability for podoconiosis in India was predicted to be widespread, particularly in the mountainous east and hilly southwest of the country. Most of the districts with higher levels of poverty were in the central east and central west. Of 286 districts delineated by state representatives, lymphoedema was known to the health system in 189 districts and not recorded in 80. Information on MMDP services was unavailable for many districts, but 169 were known not to provide such services. We identified 35 districts across the country as high priority for mapping based on these criteria. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate widespread presence of conditions associated with podoconiosis in India, including areas with known lymphoedema cases and without MMDP services. This work is intended to support a rational approach to surveying for an unrecognised, geographically focal, chronic disease in India, with a view to scaling up to inform a national strategy if required.

Predicting the environmental suitability and population at risk of podoconiosis in Africa.

Podoconiosis is a type of tropical lymphedema that causes massive swelling of the lower limbs. The disease is associated with both economic insecurity, due to long-term morbidity-related loss of productivity, and intense social stigma. The geographical distribution and burden of podoconiosis in Africa are uncertain. We applied statistical modelling to the most comprehensive database compiled to date to predict the environmental suitability of podoconiosis in the African continent. By combining climate and environmental data and overlaying population figures, we predicted the environmental suitability and human population at risk of podoconiosis in Africa. Environmental suitability for podoconiosis was predicted in 29 African countries. In the year 2020, the total population in areas suitable for podoconiosis is estimated at 114.5 million people, (95% uncertainty interval: 109.4-123.9) with 16.9 million in areas suitable for both lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis. Of the total 5,712 implementation units (typically second administrative-level units, such as districts) defined by the World Health Organization in Africa, 1,655 (29.0%) were found to be environmentally suitable for podoconiosis. The majority of implementation units with high environmental suitability are located in Angola (80, 4.8%), Cameroon (170, 10.3%), the DRC (244, 14.7%), Ethiopia (495, 29.9%), Kenya (217, 13.1%), Uganda (116, 7.0%) and Tanzania (112, 6.8%). Of the 1,655 environmentally suitable implementation units, 960 (58.0%) require more detailed community-level mapping. Our estimates provide key evidence of the population at risk and geographical extent of podoconiosis in Africa, which will help decision-makers to better plan more integrated intervention programmes.

Mapping the global distribution of Buruli ulcer: a systematic review with evidence consensus.

BACKGROUND: Buruli ulcer can cause disfigurement and long-term loss of function. It is underdiagnosed and under-reported, and its current distribution is unclear. We aimed to synthesise and evaluate data on Buruli ulcer prevalence and distribution. METHODS: We did a systematic review of Buruli ulcer prevalence and used an evidence consensus framework to describe and evaluate evidence for Buruli ulcer distribution worldwide. We searched PubMed and Web of Science databases from inception to Aug 6, 2018, for records of Buruli ulcer and Mycobacterium ulcerans detection, with no limits on study type, publication date, participant population, or location. English, French, and Spanish language publications were included. We included population-based surveys presenting Buruli ulcer prevalence estimates, or data that allowed prevalence to be estimated, in the systematic review. We extracted geographical data on the occurrence of Buruli ulcer cases and M ulcerans detection from studies of any type for the evidence consensus framework; articles that did not report original data were excluded. For the main analysis, we extracted prevalence estimates from included surveys and calculated 95% CIs using Byar's method. We included occurrence records, reports to WHO and the Global Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology Network, and surveillance data from Buruli ulcer control programmes in the evidence consensus framework to grade the strength of evidence for Buruli ulcer endemicity. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018116260. FINDINGS: 2763 titles met the search criteria. We extracted prevalence estimates from ten studies and occurrence data from 208 studies and five unpublished surveillance datasets. Prevalence estimates within study areas ranged from 3·2 (95% CI 3·1-3·3) cases per 10 000 population in Côte d'Ivoire to 26·9 (23·5-30·7) cases per 10 000 population in Benin. There was evidence of Buruli ulcer in 32 countries and consensus on presence in 12. INTERPRETATION: The global distribution of Buruli ulcer is uncertain and potentially wider than currently recognised. Our findings represent the strongest available evidence on Buruli ulcer distribution so far and have many potential applications, from directing surveillance activities to informing burden estimates. FUNDING: AIM Initiative.

Mapping the global distribution of podoconiosis: Applying an evidence consensus approach.

BACKGROUND: Podoconiosis is a type of elephantiasis characterised by swelling of the lower legs. It is often confused with other causes of tropical lymphedema and its global distribution is uncertain. Here we synthesise the available information on the presence of podoconiosis to produce evidence consensus maps of its global geographical distribution. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We systematically searched available data on podoconiosis in SCOPUS and MEDLINE from inception, updated to 10 May, 2019, and identified observational and population-based studies reporting podoconiosis. To establish existence of podoconiosis, we used the number of cases reported in studies and prevalence data with geographical locations. We then developed an index to assess evidence quality and reliability, assigning each country an evidence consensus score. Using these summary scores, we then developed a contemporary global map of national-level podoconiosis status. There is evidence of podoconiosis in 17 countries (12 in Africa, three in Latin America, and two in Asia) and consensus on presence in six countries (all in Africa). We have identified countries where surveillance is required to further define the presence or absence of podoconiosis. We have highlighted areas where evidence is currently insufficient or conflicting, and from which more evidence is needed. CONCLUSION: The global distribution of podoconiosis is not clearly known; the disease extent and limits provided here inform the best contemporary map of the distribution of podoconiosis globally from available data. These results help identify surveillance needs, direct future mapping activities, and inform prevention plans and burden estimation of podoconiosis.

Modelling the spatial distribution of aquatic insects (Order Hemiptera) potentially involved in the transmission of Mycobacterium ulcerans in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Biting aquatic insects belonging to the order Hemiptera have been suggested as potential vectors of Mycobacterium ulcerans in endemic areas for Buruli ulcer (BU). If this is the case, these insects would be expected to co-exist with M. ulcerans in the same geographical areas. Here, we studied the geographical distribution of six aquatic Hemiptera families that are thought to be vectors of M. ulcerans and explored their potential geographical overlapping with communities reporting BU cases in endemic countries. METHODS: We have developed ensemble ecological models of predicted distribution for six families of the Hemiptera (Naucoridae, Belostomatidae, Notonectidae, Nepidae, Corixidae and Gerridae) applying a robust modelling framework over a collection of recorded presences and a suite of environmental and topographical factors. Ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) was first used to identify factors that best described the ecological niches for each hemipteran family. Finally, we explored the potential geographical co-occurrence of these insects and BU in two endemic countries, Cameroon and Ghana. RESULTS: Species of the families Naucoridae and Belostomatidae, according to our models, are widely distributed across Africa, although absent from drier and hotter areas. The other two families of biting Hemiptera, the Notonectidae and Nepidae, would have a more restricted distribution, being more predominant in western and southern Africa. All these four families of biting water bugs are widely distributed across coastal areas of West Africa. They would thrive in areas where annual mean temperature varies between 15-22 °C, with moderate annual precipitation (i.e. 350-1000 mm/annual) and near to water courses. Species of all hemipteran families show preference for human-made environments such as agricultural landscapes and urbanized areas. Finally, our analysis suggests that M. ulcerans and species of these aquatic insects might coexist in the same ecological niches, although there would be variation in species diversity between BU endemic areas. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings predict the geographical co-existence of some species of aquatic hemipteran families and BU. Considering the existing biological evidence that points to some of these aquatic insects as potential phoretic vectors of M. ulcerans, its presence in BU endemic areas should be considered a risk factor. The ecological models here presented may be helpful to inform future environmental based models intended to delineate the potential geographical distribution of BU in the African region.