Phage capsid recognition triggers activation of a bacterial toxin-antitoxin defense system.

Zhang et al.1 reveal a previously unknown route to toxin activation whereby bacteriophage capsid proteins bind the antitoxin domain of the CapRel fused toxin-antitoxin system, triggering translational inhibition via pyrophosporylation of tRNAs and culminating in abortive infection-mediated phage resistance.

Type III CRISPR-Cas provides resistance against nucleus-forming jumbo phages via abortive infection.

Bacteria have diverse defenses against phages. In response, jumbo phages evade multiple DNA-targeting defenses by protecting their DNA inside a nucleus-like structure. We previously demonstrated that RNA-targeting type III CRISPR-Cas systems provide jumbo phage immunity by recognizing viral mRNA exported from the nucleus for translation. Here, we demonstrate that recognition of phage mRNA by the type III system activates a cyclic triadenylate-dependent accessory nuclease, NucC. Although unable to access phage DNA in the nucleus, NucC degrades the bacterial chromosome, triggers cell death, and disrupts phage replication and maturation. Hence, type-III-mediated jumbo phage immunity occurs via abortive infection, with suppression of the viral epidemic protecting the population. We further show that type III systems targeting jumbo phages have diverse accessory nucleases, including RNases that provide immunity. Our study demonstrates how type III CRISPR-Cas systems overcome the inaccessibility of jumbo phage DNA to provide robust immunity.

CRISPR-Cas immunity is repressed by the LysR-type transcriptional regulator PigU.

Bacteria protect themselves from infection by bacteriophages (phages) using different defence systems, such as CRISPR-Cas. Although CRISPR-Cas provides phage resistance, fitness costs are incurred, such as through autoimmunity. CRISPR-Cas regulation can optimise defence and minimise these costs. We recently developed a genome-wide functional genomics approach (SorTn-seq) for high-throughput discovery of regulators of bacterial gene expression. Here, we applied SorTn-seq to identify loci influencing expression of the two type III-A Serratia CRISPR arrays. Multiple genes affected CRISPR expression, including those involved in outer membrane and lipopolysaccharide synthesis. By comparing loci affecting type III CRISPR arrays and cas operon expression, we identified PigU (LrhA) as a repressor that co-ordinately controls both arrays and cas genes. By repressing type III-A CRISPR-Cas expression, PigU shuts off CRISPR-Cas interference against plasmids and phages. PigU also represses interference and CRISPR adaptation by the type I-F system, which is also present in Serratia. RNA sequencing demonstrated that PigU is a global regulator that controls secondary metabolite production and motility, in addition to CRISPR-Cas immunity. Increased PigU also resulted in elevated expression of three Serratia prophages, indicating their likely induction upon sensing PigU-induced cellular changes. In summary, PigU is a major regulator of CRISPR-Cas immunity in Serratia.

Processing speed and executive functioning in relation to off-topic verbosity among young adults and older adults.

PURPOSE: Off-topic verbosity (OTV) is a tendency towards excessive, off-topic speech and has been linked with age-related deficits in executive functioning, particularly inhibition. However, there are numerous disagreements within the literature on what constitutes OTV, and there is a further lack of investigation into alternative cognitive explanations for the link between inhibition and OTV. The purpose of this study was to investigate the speech characteristics of OTV in young and older adults as well as to examine whether variations in OTV are better explained by diminished executive functioning or processing speed, as measured by the D-KEFS Stroop test. METHODS: Young adults (n = 65; age 18-28) and older adults (n = 85; age 60-98) completed the D-KEFS Color-Word Interference Test and provided verbal samples of autobiographical episodic and procedural speech. These speech samples were rated on three facets of OTV: tangentiality, egocentrism and quantity of speech. RESULTS: Procedural autobiographical speech was found to best measure age cohort variations in OTV, and higher OTV was associated with poorer Stroop test performance in older adults but not in young adults. In fact, young adults only displayed associations between poorer Stroop performance and a reduction in speech quantity. Finally, processing speed deficits were more associated with increased OTV in older adults than executive functioning. CONCLUSION: These results provide support for links between age-related cognitive decline and OTV, but the results suggest that processing speed may be more implicated than executive functioning.

Identification of Streptococcus pneumoniae genes associated with hypothiocyanous acid tolerance through genome-wide screening.

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a commensal bacterium and invasive pathogen that causes millions of deaths worldwide. The pneumococcal vaccine offers limited protection, and the rise of antimicrobial resistance will make treatment increasingly challenging, emphasizing the need for new antipneumococcal strategies. One possibility is to target antioxidant defenses to render S. pneumoniae more susceptible to oxidants produced by the immune system. Human peroxidase enzymes will convert bacterial-derived hydrogen peroxide to hypothiocyanous acid (HOSCN) at sites of colonization and infection. Here, we used saturation transposon mutagenesis and deep sequencing to identify genes that enable S. pneumoniae to tolerate HOSCN. We identified 37 genes associated with S. pneumoniae HOSCN tolerance, including genes involved in metabolism, membrane transport, DNA repair, and oxidant detoxification. Single-gene deletion mutants of the identified antioxidant defense genes sodA, spxB, trxA, and ahpD were generated and their ability to survive HOSCN was assessed. With the exception of ΔahpD, all deletion mutants showed significantly greater sensitivity to HOSCN, validating the result of the genome-wide screen. The activity of hypothiocyanous acid reductase or glutathione reductase, known to be important for S. pneumoniae tolerance of HOSCN, was increased in three of the mutants, highlighting the compensatory potential of antioxidant systems. Double deletion of the gene encoding glutathione reductase and sodA sensitized the bacteria significantly more than single deletion. The HOSCN defense systems identified in this study may be viable targets for novel therapeutics against this deadly pathogen. IMPORTANCE Streptococcus pneumoniae is a human pathogen that causes pneumonia, bacteremia, and meningitis. Vaccination provides protection only against a quarter of the known S. pneumoniae serotypes, and the bacterium is rapidly becoming resistant to antibiotics. As such, new treatments are required. One strategy is to sensitize the bacteria to killing by the immune system. In this study, we performed a genome-wide screen to identify genes that help this bacterium resist oxidative stress exerted by the host at sites of colonization and infection. By identifying a number of critical pneumococcal defense mechanisms, our work provides novel targets for antimicrobial therapy.

Mast Cell and Innate Immune Cell Communication in Cholestatic Liver Disease.

Mast cells (MCs) contribute to the pathogenesis of cholestatic liver diseases (primary sclerosing cholangitis [PSC] and primary biliary cholangitis [PBC]). PSC and PBC are immune-mediated, chronic inflammatory diseases, characterized by bile duct inflammation and stricturing, advancing to hepatobiliary cirrhosis. MCs are tissue resident immune cells that may promote hepatic injury, inflammation, and fibrosis formation by either direct or indirect interactions with other innate immune cells (neutrophils, macrophages/Kupffer cells, dendritic cells, natural killer, and innate lymphoid cells). The activation of these innate immune cells, usually through the degranulation of MCs, promotes antigen uptake and presentation to adaptive immune cells, exacerbating liver injury. In conclusion, dysregulation of MC-innate immune cell communications during liver injury and inflammation can lead to chronic liver injury and cancer.

Histopathologic and Transcriptomic Profiling Identifies Novel Trophoblast Defects in Patients With Preeclampsia and Maternal Vascular Malperfusion.

Preeclampsia (PE) is a heterogeneous disease for which the current clinical classification system is based on the presence or absence of specific clinical features. PE-associated placentas also show heterogeneous findings on pathologic examination, suggesting that further subclassification is possible. We combined clinical, pathologic, immunohistochemical, and transcriptomic profiling of placentas to develop integrated signatures for multiple subclasses of PE. In total, 303 PE and 1388 nonhypertensive control placentas were included. We found that maternal vascular malperfusion (MVM) in the placenta was associated with preterm PE with severe features and with small-for-gestational-age neonates. Interestingly, PE placentas with either MVM or no histologic pattern of injury showed a linear decrease in proliferative (p63+) cytotrophoblast per villous area with increasing gestational age, similar to placentas obtained from the nonhypertensive patient cohort; however, PE placentas with fetal vascular malperfusion or villitis of unknown etiology lost this phenotype. This is mainly because of cases of fetal vascular malperfusion in placentas of patients with preterm PE and villitis of unknown etiology in placentas of patients with term PE, which are associated with a decrease or increase, respectively, in the cytotrophoblast per villous area. Finally, a transcriptomic analysis identified pathways associated with hypoxia, inflammation, and reduced cell proliferation in PE-MVM placentas and further subclassified this group into extravillous trophoblast-high and extravillous trophoblast-low PE, confirmed using an immunohistochemical analysis of trophoblast lineage-specific markers. Our findings suggest that within specific histopathologic patterns of placental injury, PE can be subclassified based on specific cellular and molecular defects, allowing the identification of pathways that may be targeted for diagnostic and therapeutic purposes.

The Rsm (Csr) post-transcriptional regulatory pathway coordinately controls multiple CRISPR-Cas immune systems.

CRISPR-Cas systems provide bacteria with adaptive immunity against phages and plasmids; however, pathways regulating their activity are not well defined. We recently developed a high-throughput genome-wide method (SorTn-seq) and used this to uncover CRISPR-Cas regulators. Here, we demonstrate that the widespread Rsm/Csr pathway regulates the expression of multiple CRISPR-Cas systems in Serratia (type I-E, I-F and III-A). The main pathway component, RsmA (CsrA), is an RNA-binding post-transcriptional regulator of carbon utilisation, virulence and motility. RsmA binds cas mRNAs and suppresses type I and III CRISPR-Cas interference in addition to adaptation by type I systems. Coregulation of CRISPR-Cas and flagella by the Rsm pathway allows modulation of adaptive immunity when changes in receptor availability would alter susceptibility to flagella-tropic phages. Furthermore, we show that Rsm controls CRISPR-Cas in other genera, suggesting conservation of this regulatory strategy. Finally, we identify genes encoding RsmA homologues in phages, which have the potential to manipulate the physiology of host bacteria and might provide an anti-CRISPR activity.

The Development of Normal Fetal External Genitalia Throughout Gestation.

In this review, we describe normal development of fetal genitalia throughout gestation as well as the identification of normal male and female genitalia on ultrasound. We use abnormal and ambiguous genitalia as illustrative tools to assist with the identification of normal genitalia and recognition of some of the most common abnormalities in external genitalia development.

Men's Experiences of Self-Conscious Emotions Following Childhood Sexual Abuse.

Rates of detection and disclosure of childhood sexual abuse (CSA) are believed to be lower in males due to gender socialization fears. The experience of CSA is thought to increase negative self-conscious emotions (shame, guilt, embarrassment, anger, and fear). Such self-conscious emotions have been associated with a range of mental and public health issues. As there has been no research to date that has explored the experience of shame and guilt within the wider context of self-conscious emotional states for males, this research aimed to explore men's experiences of self-conscious emotions following CSA. Nine semi-structured interviews with males were completed. Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis identified three themes: "Invisible In This World" captures participants' isolating circumstances surrounding their CSA, and how this impacted their perception of not being protected or able to speak out; "The Emotional Fallout" describes the overwhelming emotions experienced as a result of the CSA and how such emotions have impacted participants lives, and "Learning To Live With The Wound That May Never Heal" addresses how participants have spent their lives living with the abuse and how it's a process to learn how to adapt and live with the abuse. Findings suggest there is a clear need to recognize the role and power of self-conscious emotions in male CSA, especially for healthcare professionals and services supporting males with CSA. Without addressing such self-conscious emotions, males who have experienced CSA are at risk of enduring the emotional fallout throughout their lives.

What Are the Double Lines of the Fetal Cavum Septi Pellucidi on Ultrasound?

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the significance of the double line appearance of the septi pellucidi laminae (SPL) on fetal ultrasound. METHOD: A total of 522 uncomplicated singleton pregnancies (15 to 39 weeks' gestational age) with fetal ultrasounds were enrolled. The presence of a single versus double line SP as well as measurement of the cavum septi pellucidi (CSP) was determined retrospectively. Ultrasound settings from the CSP images were recorded. Thickness of the SPL was measured in 20 ultrasound and 14 MRI cases; histology was reviewed from one neonate. Maternal BMI and gestational age were also recorded. RESULTS: The presence of double line SPL is a normal sonographic finding, seen in 47% (188/403) of normal fetuses. Thickness of the SPL in 10 cases with double line averaged 1.4 mm and in 10 cases with single line averaged 0.8 mm; MRI measurements were within 0.1 mm of the corresponding ultrasound measurements. Double line cavum was more often seen with mid-dynamic contrast range settings (5, 6) rather than high range settings (7-10) (P value <.05). The double line was only visualized on ultrasound when the angle of insonation was at or near perpendicular to the laminae; it was never visualized on coronal ultrasound imaging or MRI imaging. CONCLUSION: A double line septum pellucidum lamina is a normal finding seen in almost 50% of uncomplicated singleton pregnancies. It may be attributed to borders of cell layers within each lamina that form separate specular reflections on both sides; this can be accentuated by ultrasound settings and beam angulation.

FundAl Retroflexion (FAR) Angle is a Novel Sonographic Marker Associated With Cesarean Scar Pregnancies in the First Trimester: A Case-Control Study.

OBJECTIVES: Early diagnosis of Cesarean scar pregnancies (CSP) remains difficult. This study describes a novel sonographic marker, the FundAl Retroflexion (FAR) angle, that may be used in the first trimester. The objective of the study is to compare the FAR angle between CSP and normal pregnancies. METHODS: For this case-control study, we reviewed images from our institution's database that were acquired from January 2016 to December 2019. All cases of CSP and randomly selected controls, defined as patients with history of Cesarean delivery and normal implantation, that underwent ultrasound evaluation at <14 weeks were included. The FAR angle, defined as the acute angle created between the endometrial echo and cervical canal, was measured. The mean FAR angle was then compared between the two groups and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was generated. RESULTS: We identified 15 cases of CSP during the study period and were able to measure the FAR angle in 14 of the cases. The mean FAR angle was larger in CSP than in normal control pregnancies (45° versus 27°, respectively, P < 0.001). Using an ROC curve, a FAR angle cut off of 40° maximizes the ability to distinguish between CSP from normal pregnancies. CONCLUSIONS: The FAR angle provides an easily obtainable and numerical measurement. CSP have larger FAR angle compared to normal controls with a distinguishing cut off of 40°. Larger studies are needed to determine if using the FAR angle can improve first trimester diagnosis for CSP.

The autoregulator Aca2 mediates anti-CRISPR repression.

CRISPR-Cas systems are widespread bacterial adaptive defence mechanisms that provide protection against bacteriophages. In response, phages have evolved anti-CRISPR proteins that inactivate CRISPR-Cas systems of their hosts, enabling successful infection. Anti-CRISPR genes are frequently found in operons with genes encoding putative transcriptional regulators. The role, if any, of these anti-CRISPR-associated (aca) genes in anti-CRISPR regulation is unclear. Here, we show that Aca2, encoded by the Pectobacterium carotovorum temperate phage ZF40, is an autoregulator that represses the anti-CRISPR-aca2 operon. Aca2 is a helix-turn-helix domain protein that forms a homodimer and interacts with two inverted repeats in the anti-CRISPR promoter. The inverted repeats are similar in sequence but differ in their Aca2 affinity, and we propose that they have evolved to fine-tune, and downregulate, anti-CRISPR production at different stages of the phage life cycle. Specific, high-affinity binding of Aca2 to the first inverted repeat blocks the promoter and induces DNA bending. The second inverted repeat only contributes to repression at high Aca2 concentrations in vivo, and no DNA binding was detectable in vitro. Our investigation reveals the mechanism by which an Aca protein regulates expression of its associated anti-CRISPR.

Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2020.

BACKGROUND: Cancer projections to the current year help in policy development, planning of programs and allocation of resources. We sought to provide an overview of the expected incidence and mortality of cancer in Canada in 2020 in follow-up to the Canadian Cancer Statistics 2019 report. METHODS: We obtained incidence data from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System (1984-1991) and Canadian Cancer Registry (1992-2015). Mortality data (1984-2015) were obtained from the Canadian Vital Statistics - Death Database. All databases are maintained by Statistics Canada. Cancer incidence and mortality counts and age-standardized rates were projected to 2020 for 23 cancer types by sex and geographic region (provinces and territories) for all ages combined. RESULTS: An estimated 225 800 new cancer cases and 83 300 cancer deaths are expected in Canada in 2020. The most commonly diagnosed cancers are expected to be lung overall (29 800), breast in females (27 400) and prostate in males (23 300). Lung cancer is also expected to be the leading cause of cancer death, accounting for 25.5% of all cancer deaths, followed by colorectal (11.6%), pancreatic (6.4%) and breast (6.1%) cancers. Incidence and mortality rates will be generally higher in the eastern provinces than in the western provinces. INTERPRETATION: The number of cancer cases and deaths remains high in Canada and, owing to the growing and aging population, is expected to continue to increase. Although progress has been made in reducing deaths for most major cancers (breast, prostate and lung), there has been limited progress for pancreatic cancer, which is expected to be the third leading cause of cancer death in Canada in 2020. Additional efforts to improve uptake of existing programs, as well as to advance research, prevention, screening and treatment, are needed to address the cancer burden in Canada.

Ultrasound and Magnetic Resonance Imaging of Agenesis of the Corpus Callosum in Fetuses: Frontal Horns and Cavum Septi Pellucidi Are Clues to Earlier Diagnosis.

OBJECTIVES: We hypothesized that: (1) fetal frontal horn (FH) morphology and their proximity to the cavum septi pellucidi (CSP) can assist in suspecting complete agenesis of the corpus callosum (cACC) and partial agenesis of the corpus callosum (pACC) earlier than known indirect ultrasound (US) findings; (2) FHs assist in differentiating a true CSP from a pseudocavum; and (3) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is useful in learning FH morphology and pseudocavum etiology. METHODS: Thirty-two patients with cACC and 9 with pACC were identified on an Institutional Review Board-approved retrospective review. Of the 41 cases, 40 had prenatal US, and 21 had prenatal MRI; 17 had follow-up neonatal US, and 14 had follow-up neonatal MRI. Variables evaluated retrospectively were the presence of a CSP or a pseudocavum, ventricle size and shape, and FH shape (comma, trident, parallel, golf club, enlarged, or fused). Displacement between the inferior edge of the FH and the midline or cavum/pseudocavum was measured. RESULTS: Fetal FHs had an abnormal shape in 77% ≤20 weeks' gestation, 86% ≤24 weeks, and 90% >24 weeks. Frontal horns were laterally displaced greater than 2 mm in 85% ≤20 weeks, 91% ≤24 weeks, and 95% >24 weeks. The CSP was absent in 100% of cACC cases and 78% of pACC cases, and a pseudocavum was present in 88% of cACC cases and 78% of pACC cases across gestation. Magnetic resonance imaging confirmed US pseudocavums to be focal interhemispheric fluid or an elevated/dilated third ventricle. CONCLUSIONS: Frontal horns assist in assessing ACC ≤24 weeks and throughout gestation. Pseudocavums, often simulating CSPs, are common in ACC. Frontal horn lateral displacement and abnormal morphology, recognized by MRI correlations, are helpful in differentiating a pseudocavum from a true CSP. A normal CSP should not be cleared on screening US unless normally shaped FHs are seen directly adjacent to it.

Maximizing research impacts on cancer prevention: An integrated knowledge translation approach used by the Canadian Population Attributable Risk of Cancer (ComPARe) study.

With a strong focus on end user, or knowledge user, engagement throughout the study, an integrated knowledge translation approach (iKT) is expected to enhance the quality, relevance and reach of research findings. From its initiation, the Canadian Population Attributable Risk of Cancer (ComPARe) study combined the expertise of the knowledge producers (cancer prevention researchers) and select knowledge users in an iKT approach. We describe in detail our iKT approach, including governance, outputs and early reflections. In our model, knowledge users were integrated as members of the research team or members of a KT Advisory Committee. The integrated knowledge users took a lead role on the KT activities for ComPARe, including developing the KT Blueprint, a four phase systematic approach to guide the planning and implementation of KT activities. This approach included planning, knowledge product development, dissemination and evaluation, with advisory committee engagement built in throughout. Our early reflections identified enablers and challenges of an iKT approach for this study. Enablers included co-investigators' commitment and attitude towards iKT, support for iKT from the funding agency, an established partnership early on, understanding of and experience in each other's area of expertise, dedicated funding, clearly delineated roles, advisory committee buy-in and existing tools. Challenges included anticipating all costs, continuity of involvement, competing priorities, relationship management and geographic distance. A future evaluation will determine the effectiveness and impact of the iKT approach and KT Blueprint. In the interim, the approach we describe here can be modeled by others interested in collaborative, action-oriented research.

The burden of cancer attributable to modifiable risk factors in Canada: Methods overview.

Up-to-date estimates of current and projected future cancer burden attributable to various exposures are essential for planning and implementing cancer prevention initiatives. The Canadian Population Attributable Risk of Cancer (ComPARe) study was conducted to: i) estimate the number and proportion of cancers diagnosed among adults in Canada in 2015 that are attributable to modifiable risk factors and ii) project the future avoidable cancers by 2042 under various intervention targets. We estimated the population attributable risk (with 95% confidence intervals) and the potential impact fraction of cancers associated with selected lifestyle, environmental, and infectious factors. Exposure-specific sensitivity analyses were also completed where appropriate. Several exposures of interest included active and passive smoking, obesity and abdominal adiposity, leisure-time physical inactivity, sedentary behaviour, alcohol consumption, insufficient fruit and vegetable intake, red and processed meat consumption, air pollution (PM2.5, NO2), indoor radon gas, ultraviolet radiation (UVR), hepatitis B and C virus, Helicobacter pylori, Epstein-Barr virus, human papillomavirus, human herpesvirus type 8 and human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1. We used the 2015 cancer incidence data for 35 cancer sites from the Canadian Cancer Registry and projected cancer incidence to 2042 using historical data from 1983 to 2012. Here, we provide an overview of the data sources and methods used in estimating the current and future cancer burden in Canada. Specific methodologic details for each exposure are included in the individual articles included as part of this special issue.

Age-standardized cancer-incidence trends in Canada, 1971-2015.

BACKGROUND: Although cancer incidence over time is well documented in Canada, trends by birth cohort and age group are less well known. We analyzed age- and sex-standardized incidence trends in Canada for 16 major cancer sites and all cancers combined. METHODS: We obtained nationally representative population-based cancer incidence data in Canada between 1971 and 2015 from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System (1969-1992) and the Canadian Cancer Registry (1992-2015). We analyzed cancer-incidence trends, reported as annual percent change (APC) for each 10-year group from age 20 to 89 years. We also estimated age-adjusted incidence rate ratios from fitted birth cohort models. RESULTS: Across most age categories, the most recent trends show significant decreases in the incidence of cervical (APC -8.8% to -0.33%), lung (men: -7.42% to -0.36%; women: -6.27% to 1.07%), bladder (women: -4.12% to -0.07%; men: -5.13% to -0.38%) and prostate cancer (-11.11% to -1.11%). Significant increasing trends were observed for kidney, thyroid and uterine cancers. Overall incidence has increased among both sexes younger than 50 years of age, with recent increases in pancreatic cancer among men, breast cancer among women and colorectal cancer among both sexes. From the birth cohort analysis, we observed increasing trends in colorectal, liver and prostate cancers among men; kidney cancer and melanoma among women; and thyroid cancer among both sexes. We observed decreasing trends in cervical and ovarian cancers, and in bladder and lung cancers among men. INTERPRETATION: Cancer incidence is decreasing at many sites targeted by primary-prevention efforts, such as smoking cessation and screening programs. Substantial increases in incidence among younger populations are driven by cancers possibly associated with obesity.

Age at last screening and remaining lifetime risk of cervical cancer in older, unvaccinated, HPV-negative women: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of empirical evidence to inform the age at which to stop cervical cancer screening. The recommended age to stop screening generally varies between age 50-70 years worldwide. However, cervical cancer incidence and mortality remain high in older women. We used a Markov model of cervical cancer screening to estimate the remaining lifetime risk of cervical cancer at different ages and with different exit screening tests, with the aim of informing recommendations of the age at which to stop cervical cancer screening in developed countries. METHODS: For this modelling study, we developed a state transition (Markov) model of cervical cancer natural history and screening. We developed, calibrated, and validated our model using Canadian provincial registries and survey data. To simulate an age-structured population in the model, a new cohort of 236 564 women (one fifth of the population of Canadian women aged 20-24 years in 2012) entered the model every year and were successively modelled in parallel. Successive cohorts entered the model at age 10 years, creating an age-structured population of women aged 10-100 years. Women who had a total hysterectomy were excluded from the analyses. We calibrated our model to human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and cancer incidence with data from Statistics Canada, which compiles the data from 13 individual provincial registries. We chose a three-stage progressive cervical intraepithelial neoplasia model to include differences in management and treatment decisions depending on lesion severity. We modelled infections with four high-risk HPV groups: HPV16 and HPV18; HPV31, HPV33, HPV45, HPV52, and HPV58; HPV35, HPV39, HPV51, HPV56, HPV59, HPV66, and HPV68; and a generic group of other potentially oncogenic HPVs. We estimated 5-year, 10-year, and remaining lifetime risk of cervical cancer for older, unvaccinated women who stopped screening at different ages and underwent different screening tests. FINDINGS: Cervical cancer incidence excluding women with hysterectomies underestimated the incidence of cervical cancer in women with a cervix by up to 71% in women aged 80-84 years. Our model predicted that women without HPV vaccination who have been never screened have a 1 in 45 (95% percentile interval 1 in 32 to 1 in 64) lifetime risk of cervical cancer. Perfect adherence (100% of women screened) to cytology screening every 3 years between the ages of 25 years and 69 years could reduce the lifetime risk of cervical cancer to 1 in 532 women (95% percentile interval 1 in 375 to 1 in 820) without HPV vaccination. Increasing the age at which women stopped cytology screening from 55 years to 75 years led to incremental decreases in cancer risk later in life. A 70-year old woman whose screening history was unknown had an average remaining lifetime risk of 1 in 588 (<1%; 95% percentile interval 1 in 451 to 1 in 873) if she stopped screening. Her remaining lifetime risk at age 70 years was reduced to 1 in 1206 (2·0 times reduction; 95% percentile interval 1 in 942 to 1 in 1748) if she had a negative cytology test, 1 in 6525 (12·9 times reduction; 95% percentile interval 1 in 3167 to 1 in 18 664) if she had a negative HPV test, and 1 in 9550 (18·1 times reduction; 95% percentile interval 1 in 4928 to 1 in 23 228) if she had a negative co-test for cytology and HPV. INTERPRETATION: Cervical cancer risk reductions might be achieved by screening with cytology up to age 75 years, although with diminishing returns. A negative exit oncogenic HPV test or negative HPV test plus cytology correlates with a low remaining lifetime cervical cancer risk for unvaccinated women with a cervix after the age of 55 years. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccination in girls and the risk of autoimmune disorders: the Ontario Grade 8 HPV Vaccine Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Despite demonstrated effectiveness in real-world settings, concerns persist regarding the safety of the quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV4) vaccine. We sought to assess the risk of autoimmune disorders following HPV4 vaccination among grade 8 girls eligible for Ontario's school-based HPV vaccination program. METHODS: We undertook a population-based retrospective cohort study using Ontario's administrative health and vaccination databases from 2007 to 2013. The self-controlled case series method was used to compare the rate of a composite end point of autoimmune disorders diagnosed during days 7-60 post-vaccination ("exposed" follow-up) to that at any other time ("unexposed"). The analysis was repeated to assess the effect of a history of immune-mediated diseases and time since vaccination. We also conducted an exploratory analysis of individual autoimmune disorders. Rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using conditional Poisson regression, adjusted for age, seasonality, concomitant vaccinations and infections. RESULTS: The study cohort consisted of 290 939 girls aged 12-17 years who were eligible for vaccination between 2007 and 2013. There was no significant risk for developing an autoimmune disorder following HPV4 vaccination (n = 681; rate ratio 1.12, 95% CI 0.85-1.47), and the association was unchanged by a history of immune-mediated disorders and time since vaccination. Exploratory analyses of individual autoimmune disorders found no significant risks, including for Bell palsy (n = 65; rate ratio 1.73, 95% CI 0.77-3.89), optic neuritis (n = 67; rate ratio 1.57, 95% CI 0.74-3.33) and Graves disease (n = 47; rate ratio 1.55, 95% CI 0.92-2.63). INTERPRETATION: We did not observe an increased risk of autoimmune disorders following HPV4 vaccination among teenaged girls. These findings should reassure parents and health care providers.