RESUMO
The carambola fruit fly Bactrocera carambolae Drew and Hancock (Diptera: Tephritidae) is an invasive fruit fly reported in North Brazil that threatens Brazilian fruit culture. Assessing the potential risk of establishing this pest is necessary to reduce the threat of B. carambolae dispersion to other countries and Brazilian regions and to avoid damage to the fruit trade. In this study, the CLIMEX model was used to understand the response of B. carambolae to climate change and to determine its potential global distribution with and without irrigation practices. Based on ecophysiological parameters, the model simulates factors limiting species distribution concerning the climate. To assess the seasonal variation in the density of B. carambolae, monitoring data in Uiramutã municipality, Roraima, from 2013 to 2019 was used. According to the CLIMEX forecast, large parts of America, Africa, and Asia, mainly in areas closest to the equator, are highly suitable for the survival of B. carambolae. Brazil is a good part of its territory with high suitability for B. carambolae, especially the North, South, and Southeast regions and the entire coastal area. The periods of the highest climatic suitability in the five Brazilian regions were January-May and October-December. The potential distribution area expands under irrigation and is highly suitable for most areas without cold stress. The CLIMEX model for B. carambolae generated in the present study provides important information for the Brazilian eradication program and other surveillance activities established in pest-free areas.