Thermal affinity as the dominant factor changing Mediterranean fish abundances.

Recent decades have seen profound changes in species abundance and community composition. In the marine environment, the major anthropogenic drivers of change comprise exploitation, invasion by nonindigenous species, and climate change. However, the magnitude of these stressors has been widely debated and we lack empirical estimates of their relative importance. In this study, we focused on Eastern Mediterranean, a region exposed to an invasion of species of Red Sea origin, extreme climate change, and high fishing pressure. We estimated changes in fish abundance using two fish trawl surveys spanning a 20-year period, and correlated these changes with estimated sensitivity of species to the different stressors. We estimated sensitivity to invasion using the trait similarity between indigenous and nonindigenous species; sensitivity to fishing using a published composite index based on the species' life-history; and sensitivity to climate change using species climatic affinity based on occurrence data. Using both a meta-analytical method and random forest analysis, we found that for shallow-water species the most important driver of population size changes is sensitivity to climate change. Species with an affinity to warm climates increased in relative abundance and species with an affinity to cold climates decreased suggesting a strong response to warming local sea temperatures over recent decades. This decrease in the abundance of cold-water-associated species at the trailing "warm" end of their distribution has been rarely documented. Despite the immense biomass of nonindigenous species and the presumed high fishing pressure, these two latter factors seem to have only a minor role in explaining abundance changes. The decline in abundance of indigenous species of cold-water origin indicates a future major restructuring of fish communities in the Mediterranean in response to the ongoing warming, with unknown impacts on ecosystem function.

Remarkable size-spectra stability in a marine system undergoing massive invasion.

The Mediterranean Sea is an invasion hotspot, with non-indigenous species suspected to be a major driver behind community changes. We used size spectra, a reliable index of food web structure, to examine how the influx of Red Sea fishes into the Mediterranean Sea has impacted the indigenous species community. This is the first attempt to use changes in the size spectra to reveal the effect of biological invasions. We used data from trawl catches along Israel's shoreline spanning 20 years to estimate changes in the community size spectra of both indigenous and non-indigenous species. We found that the relative biomass of non-indigenous species increased over the 20 years, especially for small and large species, leading to a convergence with the indigenous species size spectra. Hence, the biomass of indigenous and non-indigenous species has become identical for all size classes, suggesting similar energetic constraints and sensitivities to fishing. However, over this time period the size spectrum of indigenous species has remained remarkably constant. This suggests that the wide-scale invasion of non-indigenous species into the Mediterranean may have had little impact on the community structure of indigenous species.