Resurgence of Ebola virus in 2021 in Guinea suggests a new paradigm for outbreaks.

Seven years after the declaration of the first epidemic of Ebola virus disease in Guinea, the country faced a new outbreak-between 14 February and 19 June 2021-near the epicentre of the previous epidemic1,2. Here we use next-generation sequencing to generate complete or near-complete genomes of Zaire ebolavirus from samples obtained from 12 different patients. These genomes form a well-supported phylogenetic cluster with genomes from the previous outbreak, which indicates that the new outbreak was not the result of a new spillover event from an animal reservoir. The 2021 lineage shows considerably lower divergence than would be expected during sustained human-to-human transmission, which suggests a persistent infection with reduced replication or a period of latency. The resurgence of Zaire ebolavirus from humans five years after the end of the previous outbreak of Ebola virus disease reinforces the need for long-term medical and social care for patients who survive the disease, to reduce the risk of re-emergence and to prevent further stigmatization.

Comparative performance study of three Ebola rapid diagnostic tests in Guinea.

BACKGROUND: The 2014/15 Ebola outbreak in West Africa resulted in 11,000 deaths and massive strain on local health systems, and the ongoing outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo has afflicted more than 3000 people. Accurate, rapid Ebola diagnostics suitable for field deployment would enable prompt identification and effective response to future outbreaks, yet remain largely unavailable. The purpose of this study was to assess the accuracy of three novel rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs): an Ebola, an Ebola-Malaria, and a Fever Panel test that includes Ebola, all from a single manufacturer. METHODS: We evaluated the three RDTs in 109 Ebola-positive and 96 Ebola-negative stored serum samples collected during the outbreak in Guinea in 2014/15, and tested by real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Sensitivity, specificity, and overall percent agreement were calculated for each RDT using RT-PCR as a reference standard, stratified by Ct value ranges. RESULTS: All tests performed with high accuracy on samples with low Ct value (high viral load). The Fever Panel test performed with the highest accuracy, with a sensitivity of 89.9% and specificity of 90.6%. The Ebola and Ebola-Malaria tests performed comparably to each other: sensitivity was 77.1 and 78% respectively, and specificity was 91.7% for the Ebola test and 95.8% for the Ebola-Malaria test. CONCLUSIONS: This study evaluated the accuracy of three novel rapid diagnostic tests for Ebola. The tests may have significant public health relevance, particularly the Fever Panel test, which detects seven pathogens including Ebola. Given limitations to the study resulting from uncertain sample quality, further evaluation is warranted. All tests performed with highest accuracy on samples with low Ct value (high viral load), and the data presented here suggests that these RDTs may be useful for point-of-care diagnosis of cases in the context of an outbreak. Restrictions to their use in non-severe Ebola cases or for longitudinal monitoring, when viral loads are lower, may be appropriate. Highlighting the challenge in developing and evaluating Ebola RDTs, there were concerns regarding sample integrity and reference testing, and there is a need for additional research to validate these assays.

Emergence of Zaire Ebola virus disease in Guinea.

In March 2014, the World Health Organization was notified of an outbreak of a communicable disease characterized by fever, severe diarrhea, vomiting, and a high fatality rate in Guinea. Virologic investigation identified Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) as the causative agent. Full-length genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis showed that EBOV from Guinea forms a separate clade in relationship to the known EBOV strains from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Gabon. Epidemiologic investigation linked the laboratory-confirmed cases with the presumed first fatality of the outbreak in December 2013. This study demonstrates the emergence of a new EBOV strain in Guinea.

Deployment of a Reverse Transcription Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification Test for Ebola Virus Surveillance in Remote Areas in Guinea.

To strengthen the laboratory diagnostic capacity for Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the remote areas of Guinea, we deployed a mobile field laboratory and implemented reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) for postmortem testing. We tested 896 oral swab specimens and 21 serum samples, using both RT-LAMP and reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Neither test yielded a positive result, and the results from RT-LAMP and RT-PCR were consistent. More than 95% of the samples were tested within 2 days of sample collection. These results highlight the usefulness of the RT-LAMP assay as an EVD diagnostic testing method in the field or remote areas.

Development and deployment of a rapid recombinase polymerase amplification Ebola virus detection assay in Guinea in 2015.

In the absence of a vaccine or specific treatments for Ebola virus disease (EVD), early identification of cases is crucial for the control of EVD epidemics. We evaluated a new extraction kit (SpeedXtract (SE), Qiagen) on sera and swabs in combination with an improved diagnostic reverse transcription recombinase polymerase amplification assay for the detection of Ebola virus (EBOV-RT-RPA). The performance of combined extraction and detection was best for swabs. Sensitivity and specificity of the combined SE and EBOV-RT-RPA were tested in a mobile laboratory consisting of a mobile glovebox and a Diagnostics-in-a-Suitcase powered by a battery and solar panel, deployed to Matoto Conakry, Guinea as part of the reinforced surveillance strategy in April 2015 to reach the goal of zero cases. The EBOV-RT-RPA was evaluated in comparison to two real-time PCR assays. Of 928 post-mortem swabs, 120 tested positive, and the combined SE and EBOV-RT-RPA yielded a sensitivity and specificity of 100% in reference to one real-time RT-PCR assay. Another widely used real-time RT-PCR was much less sensitive than expected. Results were provided very fast within 30 to 60 min, and the field deployment of the mobile laboratory helped improve burial management and community engagement.

Rodent control strategies and Lassa virus: some unexpected effects in Guinea, West Africa.

The Natal multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) is the host of Lassa mammarenavirus, causing Lassa haemorrhagic fever in West Africa. As there is currently no operational vaccine and therapeutic drugs are limited, we explored rodent control as an alternative to prevent Lassa virus spillover in Upper Guinea, where the disease is highly endemic in rural areas. In a seven-year experiment, we distributed rodenticides for 10-30 days once a year and, in the last year, added intensive snap trapping for three months in all the houses of one village. We also captured rodents both before and after the intervention period to assess their effectiveness by examining alterations in trapping success and infection rates (Lassa virus RNA and IgG antibodies). We found that both interventions reduced the rodent population by 74-92% but swiftly rebounded to pre-treatment levels, even already six months after the last snap-trapping control. Furthermore, while we observed that chemical control modestly decreased Lassa virus infection rates annually (a reduction of 5% in seroprevalence per year), the intensive trapping unexpectedly led to a significantly higher infection rate (from a seroprevalence of 28% before to 67% after snap trapping control). After seven years, we conclude that annual chemical control, alone or with intensive trapping, is ineffective and sometimes counterproductive in preventing Lassa virus spillover in rural villages. These unexpected findings may result from density-dependent breeding compensation following culling and the survival of a small percentage of chronically infected rodents that may spread the virus to a new susceptible generation of mice.

Spatio-temporal spread of Lassa virus and a new rodent host in the Mano River Union area, West Africa.

The spread of Lassa virus (LASV) in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, which together are named the Mano River Union (MRU) area, was examined phylogeographically. To provide a reliable evolutionary scenario, new rodent-derived, whole LASV sequences were included. These were generated by metatranscriptomic next-generation sequencing from rodents sampled between 2003 and 2020 in 21 localities of Guinea and Sierra Leone. An analysis was performed using BEAST to perform continuous phylogeographic inference and EvoLaps v36 to visualize spatio-temporal spread. LASV was identified as expected in its primary host reservoir, the Natal multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis), and also in two Guinean multimammate mice (Mastomys erythroleucus) in northern Sierra Leone and two rusty-bellied brush-furred mice (Lophuromys sikapusi) in southern Sierra Leone. This finding is consistent with the latter two species being secondary host reservoirs. The strains in these three species were very closely related in LASV lineage IV. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the most recent common ancestor of lineage IV existed 316-374 years ago and revealed distinct, well-supported clades from Sierra Leone (Bo, Kabala and Kenema), Guinea (Faranah, Kissidougou-Guekedou and Macenta) and Liberia (Phebe-Ganta). The phylogeographic scenario suggests southern Guinea as the point of origin of LASV in the MRU area, with subsequent spread to towards Mali, Liberia and Sierra Leone at a mean speed of 1.6 to 1.1 km/year.

Association of hepatitis C virus genotype 2 spread with historic slave trade and commerce routes in Western Africa.

The hepatitis C virus genotype 2 (HCV2) is endemic in Western and Central Africa. The HCV2 evolutionary origins remain uncertain due to the paucity of available genomes from African settings. In this study, we investigated the molecular epidemiology of HCV infections in rural Guinea, Western Africa, during 2004 and 2014. Broadly reactive nested reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-based screening of sera from 1,571 asymptomatic adults resulted in the detection of 25 (1.5 per cent; 95 per cent confidence interval 0.9-2.3) positive samples, with a median viral load of 2.54E + 05 IU/ml (interquartile range 6.72E + 05). HCV-infected persons had a median age of 47 years, and 62.5 per cent were male and 37.5 per cent were female. The full polyprotein-encoding genes were retrieved by a combination of high throughput and Sanger sequencing from 17 samples showing sufficiently high viral loads. Phylogenetic analysis and sequence distances ≥13 per cent averaged over the polyprotein genes compared to other HCV2 subtypes revealed nine previously unknown HCV2 subtypes. The time to the most recent common ancestor of the Guinean HCV2 strains inferred in a Bayesian framework was 493 years (95 per cent Highest posterior density (HPD) 453-532). Most of the Guinean strains clustered poorly by location on both the level of sampling sites within Guinea and the level of countries in the phylogenetic reconstructions. Ancestral state reconstruction provided decisive support (Bayes factor > 100) for an origin of HCV2 in Western Africa. Phylogeographic reconstructions in a Bayesian framework pointed to a radial diffusion of HCV2 from Western African regions encompassing today's countries like Ghana, Guinea Bissau, or Burkina Faso, to Central and Northern African regions that took place from the 16th century onwards. The spread of HCV2 coincided in time and space with the main historic slave trade and commerce routes, supported by Bayesian tip-association significance testing (P = 0.01). Our study confirms the evolutionary origins of HCV2 in Western Africa and provides a potential link between historic human movements and HCV2 dispersion.

Differential Laboratory Diagnosis of Acute Fever in Guinea: Preparedness for the Threat of Hemorrhagic Fevers.

Acute febrile illnesses occur frequently in Guinea. Acute fever itself is not a unique, hallmark indication (pathognomonic sign) of any one illness or disease. In the infectious disease context, fever's underlying cause can be a wide range of viral or bacterial pathogens, including the Ebola virus. In this study, molecular and serological methods were used to analyze samples from patients hospitalized with acute febrile illness in various regions of Guinea. This analysis was undertaken with the goal of accomplishing differential diagnosis (determination of causative pathogen) in such cases. As a result, a number of pathogens, both viral and bacterial, were identified in Guinea as causative agents behind acute febrile illness. In approximately 60% of the studied samples, however, a definitive determination could not be made.

A Sporadic and Lethal Lassa Fever Case in Forest Guinea, 2019.

Lassa fever is a rodent-borne disease caused by Lassa virus (LASV). It causes fever, dizziness, vertigo, fatigue, coughing, diarrhea, internal bleeding and facial edema. The disease has been known in Guinea since 1960 but only anectodical acute cases have been reported to date. In January 2019, a 35-year-old man, a wood merchant from Kissidougou, Forest Guinea, presented himself at several health centers with persistent fever, frequent vomiting and joint pain. He was repeatedly treated for severe malaria, and died three weeks later in Mamou regional hospital. Differential diagnosis identified LASV as the cause of death. No secondary cases were reported. The complete LASV genome was obtained using next-generation sequencing. Phylogenetic analysis showed that this strain, namely the Kissidougou strain, belongs to the clade IV circulating in Guinea and Sierra Leone, and is thought to have emerged some 150 years ago. Due to the similarity of symptoms with malaria, Lassa fever is still a disease that is difficult to recognize and that may remain undiagnosed in health centers in Guinea.

Development and Evaluation of a One-Step Quantitative RT-PCR Assay for Detection of Lassa Virus.

Lassa fever is a severe viral hemorrhagic illness caused by Lassa virus. Based on estimates, the number of LASV infections ranges from 300,000 to 500,000 cases in endemic areas with a fatality rate of 1%. Development of fast and sensitive tools for the control and prevention of Lassa virus infection as well as for clinical diagnostics of Lassa fever are crucial. Here we reported development and evaluation of a one-step quantitative RT-qPCR assay for the Lassa virus detection - LASV-Fl. This assay is suitable for the detection of lineages I-IV of Lassa virus. The limit of detection of the assay ranged from 103 copies/ml to 105 copies/ml and has 96.4% diagnostic sensitivity, whereas analytical and diagnostic specificities both were 100%. Serum, whole blood and tissue are suitable for use with the assay. The assay contains all the necessary components to perform the analysis, including an armored positive control (ARC+) and an armored internal control (IC). The study was done during the mission of specialized anti-epidemic team of the Russian Federation (SAET) in the Republic of Guinea in 2015-2018. Based on sequencing data, LASV-specific assay was developed using synthetic MS2-phage-based armored RNA particles, RNA from Lassa virus strain Josiah, and further, evaluated in field conditions using samples from patients and Mastomys natalensis rodents.

A point-of-care diagnostic for differentiating Ebola from endemic febrile diseases.

Hemorrhagic fever outbreaks such as Ebola are difficult to detect and control because of the lack of low-cost, easily deployable diagnostics and because initial clinical symptoms mimic other endemic diseases such as malaria. Current molecular diagnostic methods such as polymerase chain reaction require trained personnel and laboratory infrastructure, hindering diagnostics at the point of need. Although rapid tests such as lateral flow can be broadly deployed, they are typically not well-suited for differentiating among multiple diseases presenting with similar symptoms. Early detection and control of Ebola outbreaks require simple, easy-to-use assays that can detect and differentiate infection with Ebola virus from other more common febrile diseases. Here, we developed and tested an immunoassay technology that uses surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) tags to simultaneously detect antigens from Ebola, Lassa, and malaria within a single blood sample. Results are provided in <30 min for individual or batched samples. Using 190 clinical samples collected from the 2014 West African Ebola outbreak, along with 163 malaria positives and 233 negative controls, we demonstrated Ebola detection with 90.0% sensitivity and 97.9% specificity and malaria detection with 100.0% sensitivity and 99.6% specificity. These results, along with corresponding live virus and nonhuman primate testing of an Ebola, Lassa, and malaria 3-plex assay, indicate the potential of the SERS technology as an important tool for outbreak detection and clinical triage in low-resource settings.

Fluctuation of abundance and Lassa virus prevalence in Mastomys natalensis in Guinea, West Africa.

Based on empiric surveillance data, the incidence of human Lassa fever (LF) cases in Guinea and other West African countries has been reported to increase during the dry season compared to the rainy season. To investigate possible links with the ecology of the rodent reservoir of the virus, we conducted a 2-year longitudinal survey of Mastomys natalensis in a region of high human Lassa virus (LASV) seropositivity in Guinea. Standardized rodent trapping with similar trapping efforts between seasons was performed in three villages and 53.5% (601/1123) of the animals were identified as M. natalensis using morphometric and molecular criteria. Mean trapping success (TS) of M. natalensis was always higher inside houses than in proximal cultivations. In the dry season, mean TS increased 2-fold inside houses and decreased up to 10-fold outside (p < 0.0001), suggesting aggregation of rodents inside houses due to restricted food supply. 14.5% (80/553) of M. natalensis were tested positive for Lassa virus by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR; range, 5%-30%) and prevalence of the virus was two to three times higher in rodents captured in the rainy season than in the dry season (p < 0.05). Inside houses, however, the LASV prevalence fluctuated nonsignificantly with season. These data suggest that in Guinea the risk of LASV transmission from rodents to humans is present both in the rainy and the dry season, reflected by the occurrence of LF cases throughout the year. In the dry season, however, the increased risk of humans encountering Mastomys and their excreta inside of houses may result in an increase of human Lassa fever cases.

No measurable adverse effects of Lassa, Morogoro and Gairo arenaviruses on their rodent reservoir host in natural conditions.

BACKGROUND: In order to optimize net transmission success, parasites are hypothesized to evolve towards causing minimal damage to their reservoir host while obtaining high shedding rates. For many parasite species however this paradigm has not been tested, and conflicting results have been found regarding the effect of arenaviruses on their rodent host species. The rodent Mastomys natalensis is the natural reservoir host of several arenaviruses, including Lassa virus that is known to cause Lassa haemorrhagic fever in humans. Here, we examined the effect of three arenaviruses (Gairo, Morogoro and Lassa virus) on four parameters of wild-caught Mastomys natalensis: body mass, head-body length, sexual maturity and fertility. After correcting for the effect of age, we compared these parameters between arenavirus-positive (arenavirus RNA or antibody) and negative animals using data from different field studies in Guinea (Lassa virus) and Tanzania (Morogoro and Gairo viruses). RESULTS: Although the sample sizes of our studies (1297, 749 and 259 animals respectively) were large enough to statistically detect small differences in body conditions, we did not observe any adverse effects of these viruses on Mastomys natalensis. We did find that sexual maturity was significantly positively related with Lassa virus antibody presence until a certain age, and with Gairo virus antibody presence in general. Gairo virus antibody-positive animals were also significantly heavier and larger than antibody-free animals. CONCLUSION: Together, these results suggest that the pathogenicity of arenaviruses is not severe in M. natalensis, which is likely to be an adaptation of these viruses to optimize transmission success. They also suggest that sexual behaviour might increase the probability of M. natalensis to become infected with arenaviruses.

Spatial and temporal evolution of Lassa virus in the natural host population in Upper Guinea.

This study aimed at reconstructing the spatial and temporal evolution of Lassa virus (LASV) in the natural host population. To this end, we generated 132 partial nucleoprotein sequences of LASV from M. natalensis trapped in 12 villages around Faranah, Upper Guinea, over a period of 12 years. This study reveals two main features of LASV evolution in M. natalensis. First, the virus evolves in the reservoir with a molecular clock rate of 9 (7-11) × 10(-4) position(-1) year(-1) implying that contemporary LASV lineages circulate in the Faranah area since less than 100 years. Second, viruses circulating in a specific village are diverse and polyphyletic. We observed, however, there are monophyletic clusters at village and sub-village level at specific points in time. In conclusion, our data indicate that the temporal and spatial pattern of LASV evolution in the natural reservoir is characterized by a combination of stationary circulation within a village and virus movement between villages. The latter feature is relevant for rodent control strategies, as it implies that recurrence of the virus from neighbouring villages may occur in villages where the virus has previously been eradicated.

Chains of transmission and control of Ebola virus disease in Conakry, Guinea, in 2014: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: An epidemic of Ebola virus disease of unprecedented size continues in parts of west Africa. For the first time, large urban centres such as Conakry, the capital of Guinea, are affected. We did an observational study of patients with Ebola virus disease in three regions of Guinea, including Conakry, aiming to map the routes of transmission and assess the effect of interventions. METHODS: Between Feb 10, 2014, and Aug 25, 2014, we obtained data from the linelist of all confirmed and probable cases in Guinea (as of Sept 16, 2014), a laboratory database of information about patients, and interviews with patients and their families and neighbours. With this information, we mapped chains of transmission, identified which setting infections most probably originated from (community, hospitals, or funerals), and computed the context-specific and overall reproduction numbers. FINDINGS: Of 193 confirmed and probable cases of Ebola virus disease reported in Conakry, Boffa, and Télimélé, 152 (79%) were positioned in chains of transmission. Health-care workers contributed little to transmission. In March, 2014, individuals with Ebola virus disease who were not health-care workers infected a mean of 2·3 people (95% CI 1·6-3·2): 1·4 (0·9-2·2) in the community, 0·4 (0·1-0·9) in hospitals, and 0·5 (0·2-1·0) at funerals. After the implementation of infection control in April, the reproduction number in hospitals and at funerals reduced to lower than 0·1. In the community, the reproduction number dropped by 50% for patients that were admitted to hospital, but remained unchanged for those that were not. In March, hospital transmissions constituted 35% (seven of 20) of all transmissions and funeral transmissions constituted 15% (three); but from April to the end of the study period, they constituted only 9% (11 of 128) and 4% (five), respectively. 82% (119 of 145) of transmission occurred in the community and 72% (105) between family members. Our simulations show that a 10% increase in hospital admissions could have reduced the length of chains by 26% (95% CI 4-45). INTERPRETATION: In Conakry, interventions had the potential to stop the epidemic, but reintroductions of the disease and poor cooperation of a few families led to prolonged low-level spread, showing the challenges of Ebola virus disease control in large urban centres. Monitoring of chains of transmission is crucial to assess and optimise local control strategies for Ebola virus disease. FUNDING: Labex IBEID, Reacting, PREDEMICS, NIGMS MIDAS initiative, Institut Pasteur de Dakar.

Mastomys natalensis and Lassa fever, West Africa.

PCR screening of 1,482 murid rodents from 13 genera caught in 18 different localities of Guinea, West Africa, showed Lassa virus infection only in molecularly typed Mastomys natalensis. Distribution of this rodent and relative abundance compared with M. erythroleucus correlates geographically with Lassa virus seroprevalence in humans.