Clinical characteristics and predictors of human mpox outcome during the 2022 outbreak in Nigeria: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Research from sub-Saharan Africa that contributes to our understanding of the 2022 mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) global outbreak is insufficient. Here, we describe the clinical presentation and predictors of severe disease among patients with mpox diagnosed between Feb 1, 2022, and Jan 30, 2023 in Nigeria. METHODS: We did a cohort study among laboratory-confirmed and probable mpox cases seen in 22 mpox-treatment centres and outpatient clinics across Nigeria. All individuals with confirmed and probable mpox were eligible for inclusion. Exclusion criteria were individuals who could not be examined for clinical characterisation and those who had unknown mortality outcomes. Skin lesion swabs or crust samples were collected from each patient for mpox diagnosis by PCR. A structured questionnaire was used to document sociodemographic and clinical data, including HIV status, complications, and treatment outcomes from the time of diagnosis to discharge or death. Severe disease was defined as mpox associated with death or with a life-threatening complication. Two logistic regression models were used to identify clinical characteristics associated with severe disease and potential risk factors for severe disease. The primary outcome was the clinical characteristics of mpox and disease severity. FINDINGS: We enrolled 160 people with mpox from 22 states in Nigeria, including 134 (84%) adults, 114 (71%) males, 46 (29%) females, and 25 (16%) people with HIV. Of the 160 patients, distinct febrile prodrome (n=94, 59%), rash count greater than 250 (90, 56%), concomitant varicella zoster virus infection (n=48, 30%), and hospital admission (n=70, 48%) were observed. Nine (6%) of the 160 patients died, including seven (78%) deaths attributable to sepsis. The clinical features independently associated with severe disease were a rash count greater than 10 000 (adjusted odds ratio 26·1, 95% CI 5·2-135·0, p<0·0001) and confluent or semi-confluent rash (6·7, 95% CI 1·9-23·9). Independent risk factors for severe disease were concomitant varicella zoster virus infection (3·6, 95% CI 1·1-11·5) and advanced HIV disease (35·9, 95% CI 4·1-252·9). INTERPRETATION: During the 2022 global outbreak, mpox in Nigeria was more severe among those with advanced HIV disease and concomitant varicella zoster virus infection. Proactive screening, management of co-infections, the integration and strengthening of mpox and HIV surveillance, and preventive and treatment services should be prioritised in Nigeria and across Africa. FUNDING: None.

The CircumVent Project: a CPAP/O2 helmet solution for non-invasive ventilation using an implementation research framework.

BACKGROUND: Acute respiratory failure, a major cause of death in COVID-19, is managed with high-flow oxygen therapy via invasive mechanical ventilation. In resource-limited settings like Nigeria, the shortage of ventilators and oxygen supply makes this option challenging. Evidence-based non-invasive alternatives to mechanical ventilation such as the use of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) devices exist, but there have been concerns that non-invasive ventilation may expose healthcare workers to infection from aerosolized dispersion of SARS-CoV-2. We propose to evaluate the feasibility, adaptability and acceptability of a CPAP/O2 helmet solution for non-invasive ventilation among patients with COVID-19 and health workers in eight COVID-19 treatment and isolation centers in Nigeria. METHODS: The study will occur in 4 stages: (1) convene a Steering Committee of key stakeholders and recruit implementation sites; (2) use the integrated Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services (i-PARiHS) framework to guide a needs assessment of treatment centers' capacity to use high-flow oxygen therapy to treat COVID-19 patients and utilize the findings to develop an implementation strategy for the use of a CPAP/O2 helmet solution; (3) build infrastructure to support training and data monitoring processes and to develop implementation protocols to evaluate the adaptability of the strategy for the use of the CPAP/O2 helmet; and (4) train health workers, distribute a CPAP/O2 helmet solution for non-invasive ventilation, pilot test the implementation strategy, and assess feasibility of its use and acceptability that includes monitoring altered risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers. DISCUSSION: The CPAP/O2 helmet solution for non-invasive ventilation in Nigeria can serve as a scalable model for resource-poor countries, and beyond the COVID-19 pandemic, has the potential to be deployed for the treatment of pneumonia and other respiratory diseases. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04929691. Registered June 18, 2021-retrospectively registered, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04929691.