Vitamin D did not reduce multiple sclerosis disease activity after a clinically isolated syndrome.

Low serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and low sunlight exposure are known risk factors for the development of multiple sclerosis. Add-on vitamin D supplementation trials in established multiple sclerosis have been inconclusive. The effects of vitamin D supplementation to prevent multiple sclerosis is unknown. We aimed to test the hypothesis that oral vitamin D3 supplementation in high-risk clinically isolated syndrome (abnormal MRI, at least three T2 brain and/or spinal cord lesions), delays time to conversion to definite multiple sclerosis, that the therapeutic effect is dose-dependent, and that all doses are safe and well tolerated. We conducted a double-blind trial in Australia and New Zealand. Eligible participants were randomized 1:1:1:1 to placebo, 1000, 5000 or 10 000 international units (IU) of oral vitamin D3 daily within each study centre (n = 23) and followed for up to 48 weeks. Between 2013 and 2021, we enrolled 204 participants. Brain MRI scans were performed at baseline, 24 and 48 weeks. The main study outcome was conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis based on the 2010 McDonald criteria defined as either a clinical relapse or new brain MRI T2 lesion development. We included 199 cases in the intention-to-treat analysis based on assigned dose. Of these, 116 converted to multiple sclerosis by 48 weeks (58%). Compared to placebo, the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for conversion were 1000 IU 0.87 (0.50, 1.50); 5000 IU 1.37 (0.82, 2.29); and 10 000 IU 1.28 (0.76, 2.14). In an adjusted model including age, sex, latitude, study centre and baseline symptom number, clinically isolated syndrome onset site, presence of infratentorial lesions and use of steroids, the hazard ratios (versus placebo) were 1000 IU 0.80 (0.45, 1.44); 5000 IU 1.36 (0.78, 2.38); and 10 000 IU 1.07 (0.62, 1.85). Vitamin D3 supplementation was safe and well tolerated. We did not demonstrate reduction in multiple sclerosis disease activity by vitamin D3 supplementation after a high-risk clinically isolated syndrome.

Low intensity repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation enhances remyelination by newborn and surviving oligodendrocytes in the cuprizone model of toxic demyelination.

In people with multiple sclerosis (MS), newborn and surviving oligodendrocytes (OLs) can contribute to remyelination, however, current therapies are unable to enhance or sustain endogenous repair. Low intensity repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (LI-rTMS), delivered as an intermittent theta burst stimulation (iTBS), increases the survival and maturation of newborn OLs in the healthy adult mouse cortex, but it is unclear whether LI-rTMS can promote remyelination. To examine this possibility, we fluorescently labelled oligodendrocyte progenitor cells (OPCs; Pdgfrα-CreER transgenic mice) or mature OLs (Plp-CreER transgenic mice) in the adult mouse brain and traced the fate of each cell population over time. Daily sessions of iTBS (600 pulses; 120 mT), delivered during cuprizone (CPZ) feeding, did not alter new or pre-existing OL survival but increased the number of myelin internodes elaborated by new OLs in the primary motor cortex (M1). This resulted in each new M1 OL producing ~ 471 µm more myelin. When LI-rTMS was delivered after CPZ withdrawal (during remyelination), it significantly increased the length of the internodes elaborated by new M1 and callosal OLs, increased the number of surviving OLs that supported internodes in the corpus callosum (CC), and increased the proportion of axons that were myelinated. The ability of LI-rTMS to modify cortical neuronal activity and the behaviour of new and surviving OLs, suggests that it may be a suitable adjunct intervention to enhance remyelination in people with MS.

Exploring the cost-effectiveness of EBV vaccination to prevent multiple sclerosis in an Australian setting.

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence suggests the potential of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) vaccination in preventing multiple sclerosis (MS). We aimed to explore the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical EBV vaccination to prevent MS in an Australian setting. METHODS: A five-state Markov model was developed to simulate the incidence and subsequent progression of MS in a general Australian population. The model inputs were derived from published Australian sources. Hypothetical vaccination costs, efficacy and strategies were derived from literature. Total lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated for two hypothetical prevention strategies versus no prevention from the societal and health system payer perspectives. Costs and QALYs were discounted at 5% annually. One-way, two-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: From societal perspective, EBV vaccination targeted at aged 0 and aged 12 both dominated no prevention (ie, cost saving and increasing QALYs). However, vaccinating at age 12 was more cost-effective (total lifetime costs reduced by $A452/person, QALYs gained=0.007, ICER=-$A64 571/QALY gained) than vaccinating at age 0 (total lifetime costs reduced by $A40/person, QALYs gained=0.003, ICER=-$A13 333/QALY gained). The probabilities of being cost-effective under $A50 000/QALY gained threshold for vaccinating at ages 0 and 12 were 66% and 90%, respectively. From health system payer perspective, the EBV vaccination was cost-effective at age 12 only. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated the cost-effectiveness of EBV vaccination to prevent MS under a wide range of plausible scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: MS prevention using future EBV vaccinations, particularly targeted at adolescence population, is highly likely to be cost-effective.

Long-term disability trajectories in multiple sclerosis: a group-based trajectory analysis of the AusLong cohort.

BACKGROUND: Previous natural history studies highlighted a consistent heterogeneity of disability trajectories among individuals with primary or secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (MS). However, evidence on disability progression in relapsing onset MS is scarce.The aim of this study was to investigate heterogeneity in disability accumulation over 10 years following a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system demyelination (FCD) and identify genetic, demographic, environmental and clinical factors associated with these trajectories. METHODS: We used group-based trajectory models to measure heterogeneity in disability trajectories based on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) in a prospectively assessed cohort of 263 participants. To capture sustained neurological impairments and avoid issues related to significant changes in EDSS associated with relapse, we did not consider EDSS points recorded within 3 months of a relapse. RESULTS: We identified three distinct and clinically meaningful disability trajectories: No/minimal, moderate and severe. Those in the no/minimal disability trajectory showed no appreciable progression of disability (median EDSS∼1 at 10-year review) while those in the moderate and severe disability trajectories experienced disability worsening (median time to reach EDSS 4 was 9 and 7 years, respectively). Compared with the no/minimal disability trajectory, those with older age, a higher number of relapses within the first 5 years post-FCD, and a higher number of comorbidities at baseline were more likely to be in the worse disability trajectory. Surprisingly, baseline MRI and anatomical site of initial symptoms did not influence long-term outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Those at higher risk of faster MS disability progression can be identified based on their early clinical characteristics with potential therapeutic implications for early intervention and treatment escalation.

The disease-modifying therapy utilisation and cost trend for multiple sclerosis in Australia between 2013 and 2022.

BACKGROUND: The MS disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) prescribing landscape in Australia have changed over time. OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the utilisation and cost trends of MS-related DMTs in Australia over 10 years and investigated differences between States/Territories. METHODS: The prescription and costs of 16 DMTs were extracted from the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme for 2013-2022. Descriptive approaches analysed the total number of people prescribed DMTs and total DMT costs per 10,000 population, proportions of prescriptions/costs by DMT groups and the number of people prescribed each individual DMT and costs of each DMT over the 10-year period. All estimates were for Australia and each State/Territory individually. RESULTS: The number of people prescribed DMT and costs per 10,000 population had substantial growth between 2013 and 2022: 125%/164% for Australia, and 94%-251%/129%-373% for individual States/Territories. Higher efficacy group accounted for 54% of total people prescribed DMTs in 2013 and 75% in 2022. Fingolimod was the most popular DMT until 2020, then was dominated by ocrelizumab. The trends of individual DMT prescriptions and costs differed between states particularly in Western Australia (WA), Tasmania and Northern Territory (NT). CONCLUSION: DMT prescriptions and costs continuously increased over the last decade, particularly for higher efficacy DMTs, and their trends differed between States/Territories.

Significantly increasing multiple sclerosis prevalence in Australia from 2010 to 2021.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) prevalence is increasing globally. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether increased prevalence is continuing within Australia using our validated prescription-based ascertainment method. METHODS: We used methods employed in our 2010 and 2017 prevalence estimates. Disease-modifying therapy (DMT) prescriptions were extracted from Australia's Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme data for January-December 2021. DMT penetrance was calculated using data from the Australian MS Longitudinal Study. We divided the total number of monthly prescriptions by 12 or 2 (except alemtuzumab), adjusted for DMT penetrance and Australian population estimates. Prevalences in Australian states/territories were age-standardised. 2021 prevalence estimates were compared with 2010 and 2017 prevalence estimates using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Number of people with MS in Australia in 2021 was 33,335; an increase of 7728 from 2017 (30.2%) and 12,092 from 2010 (56.6%) and increasing at a faster rate than population change (+10.1%, +14.1%). Age-standardised prevalence was 136.1/100,000 (increased from 103.7/100,000 in 2017). The previously demonstrated positive latitudinal gradient in 2010 and 2017 persisted in 2021, with Tasmania (southernmost state) having the highest prevalence (age-standardised: 203.5/100,000) while northernmost states had the lowest. CONCLUSIONS: In line with global trends, MS prevalence is escalating in Australia, particularly in higher-latitude states. MS prevention is crucial to halt this disturbing trend.

The association of comorbidities with sleep quality among Australians with multiple sclerosis: Insights from the Australian Multiple Sclerosis Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND: Comorbidities and poor sleep quality are prevalent among individuals with multiple sclerosis (MS). Our understanding of the effects of comorbidities on sleep quality in MS remains limited. OBJECTIVES: The objectives were to investigate whether the number and presence of specific comorbidities have associations with sleep quality and to assess the relative contribution of comorbidity groups to sleep quality. METHODS: We collected data on sleep quality (using Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI)) and presence of comorbidities in people with MS (n = 1597). Associations between comorbidities and sleep quality were examined using linear regression and dominance analysis. RESULTS: Having more comorbidities was associated with poorer sleep quality (p for trend < 0.001). All 13 groups of comorbidities explained 12.9% of the variance in PSQI from which half of the variance was contributed by mental health disorders. In total, 16 of the 28 comorbidities were associated with significantly worse sleep quality, with the strongest associations seen for 'other autoimmune diseases' (ß = 1.98), depression (ß = 1.76), anxiety (ß = 1.72) and rheumatoid arthritis (ß = 1.62). CONCLUSIONS: Many individual comorbidities are associated with poorer sleep quality, with mental health disorders making the largest relative contribution. Optimal management of comorbidities that make the greatest contributions could have the largest benefit for improving sleep in MS.

No evidence for association between rs10191329 severity locus and longitudinal disease severity in 1813 relapse-onset multiple sclerosis patients from the MSBase registry.

BACKGROUND: The International Multiple Sclerosis Genetics Consortium and MultipleMS Consortium recently reported a genetic variant associated with multiple sclerosis (MS) severity. However, it remains unclear if these variants remain associated with more robust, longitudinal measures of disease severity. METHODS: We examined the top variant, rs10191329, from Harroud et al.'s study in 1813 relapse-onset MS patients from the MSBase Registry to assess association with longitudinal disease severity. RESULTS: Our analysis revealed no significant association between rs10191329 genotype and longitudinal binary disease severity (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: These findings highlight the complexity of genetic factors mediating long-term MS outcomes and the need for further research.

Changes in employment status over time in multiple sclerosis following a first episode of central nervous system demyelination, a Markov multistate model study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Understanding predictors of changes in employment status among people living with multiple sclerosis (MS) can assist health care providers to develop appropriate work retention/rehabilitation programs. We aimed to model longitudinal transitions of employment status in MS and estimate the probabilities of retaining employment status or losing or gaining employment over time in individuals with a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system demyelination (FCD). METHODS: This prospective cohort study comprised adults (aged 18-59 years) diagnosed with FCD (n = 237) who were followed for more than 11 years. At each review, participants were assigned to one of three states: unemployed, part-time, or full-time employed. A Markov multistate model was used to examine the rate of state-to-state transitions. RESULTS: At the time of FCD, participants with full-time employment had an 89% chance of being in the same state over a 1-year period, but this decreased to 42% over the 10-year follow-up period. For unemployed participants, there was a 92% likelihood of remaining unemployed after 1 year, but this probability decreased to 53% over 10 years. Females, those who progressed to clinically definite MS, those with a higher relapse count, and those with a greater level of disability were at increased risk of transitioning to a deteriorated employment state. In addition, those who experienced clinically significant fatigue over the follow-up period were less likely to gain employment after being unemployed. CONCLUSIONS: In our FCD cohort, we found a considerable rate of employment transition during the early years post-diagnosis. Over more than a decade of follow-up post-FCD, we found that females and individuals with a greater disability and a higher relapse count are at higher risk of losing employment.

Novel plasma and brain proteins that are implicated in multiple sclerosis.

Understanding how variations in the plasma and brain proteome contribute to multiple sclerosis susceptibility can provide important insights to guide drug repurposing and therapeutic development for the disease. However, the role of genetically predicted protein abundance in multiple sclerosis remains largely unknown. Integrating plasma proteomics (n = 3301) and brain proteomics (n = 376 discovery; n = 152 replication) into multiple sclerosis genome-wide association studies (n = 14 802 cases and 26 703 controls), we employed summary-based methods to identify candidate proteins involved in multiple sclerosis susceptibility. Next, we evaluated associations of the corresponding genes with multiple sclerosis at tissue-level using large gene expression quantitative trait data from whole-blood (n = 31 684) and brain (n = 1194) tissue. Further, to assess transcriptional profiles for candidate proteins at cell-level, we examined gene expression patterns in immune cell types (Dataset 1: n = 73 cases and 97 controls; Dataset 2: n = 31 cases and 31 controls) for identified plasma proteins, and in brain cell types (Dataset 1: n = 4 cases and 5 controls; Dataset 2: n = 5 cases and 3 controls) for identified brain proteins. In a longitudinal multiple sclerosis cohort (n = 203 cases followed up to 15 years), we also assessed the corresponding gene-level associations with the outcome of disability worsening. We identified 39 novel proteins associated with multiple sclerosis risk. Based on five identified plasma proteins, four available corresponding gene candidates showed consistent associations with multiple sclerosis risk in whole-blood, and we found TAPBPL upregulation in multiple sclerosis B cells, CD8+ T cells and natural killer cells compared with controls. Among the 34 candidate brain proteins, 18 were replicated in a smaller cohort and 14 of 21 available corresponding gene candidates also showed consistent associations with multiple sclerosis risk in brain tissue. In cell-specific analysis, six identified brain candidates showed consistent differential gene expression in neuron and oligodendrocyte cell clusters. Based on the 39 protein-coding genes, we found 23 genes that were associated with disability worsening in multiple sclerosis cases. The findings present a set of candidate protein biomarkers for multiple sclerosis, reinforced by high concordance in downstream transcriptomics findings at tissue-level. This study also highlights the heterogeneity of cell-specific transcriptional profiles for the identified proteins and that numerous candidates were also implicated in disease progression. Together, these findings can serve as an important anchor for future studies of disease mechanisms and therapeutic development.

Not all roads lead to the immune system: the genetic basis of multiple sclerosis severity.

Multiple sclerosis is a leading cause of neurological disability in adults. Heterogeneity in multiple sclerosis clinical presentation has posed a major challenge for identifying genetic variants associated with disease outcomes. To overcome this challenge, we used prospectively ascertained clinical outcomes data from the largest international multiple sclerosis registry, MSBase. We assembled a cohort of deeply phenotyped individuals of European ancestry with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis. We used unbiased genome-wide association study and machine learning approaches to assess the genetic contribution to longitudinally defined multiple sclerosis severity phenotypes in 1813 individuals. Our primary analyses did not identify any genetic variants of moderate to large effect sizes that met genome-wide significance thresholds. The strongest signal was associated with rs7289446 (ß = -0.4882, P = 2.73 × 10-7), intronic to SEZ6L on chromosome 22. However, we demonstrate that clinical outcomes in relapse-onset multiple sclerosis are associated with multiple genetic loci of small effect sizes. Using a machine learning approach incorporating over 62 000 variants together with clinical and demographic variables available at multiple sclerosis disease onset, we could predict severity with an area under the receiver operator curve of 0.84 (95% CI 0.79-0.88). Our machine learning algorithm achieved positive predictive value for outcome assignation of 80% and negative predictive value of 88%. This outperformed our machine learning algorithm that contained clinical and demographic variables alone (area under the receiver operator curve 0.54, 95% CI 0.48-0.60). Secondary, sex-stratified analyses identified two genetic loci that met genome-wide significance thresholds. One in females (rs10967273; ßfemale = 0.8289, P = 3.52 × 10-8), the other in males (rs698805; ßmale = -1.5395, P = 4.35 × 10-8), providing some evidence for sex dimorphism in multiple sclerosis severity. Tissue enrichment and pathway analyses identified an overrepresentation of genes expressed in CNS compartments generally, and specifically in the cerebellum (P = 0.023). These involved mitochondrial function, synaptic plasticity, oligodendroglial biology, cellular senescence, calcium and G-protein receptor signalling pathways. We further identified six variants with strong evidence for regulating clinical outcomes, the strongest signal again intronic to SEZ6L (adjusted hazard ratio 0.72, P = 4.85 × 10-4). Here we report a milestone in our progress towards understanding the clinical heterogeneity of multiple sclerosis outcomes, implicating functionally distinct mechanisms to multiple sclerosis risk. Importantly, we demonstrate that machine learning using common single nucleotide variant clusters, together with clinical variables readily available at diagnosis can improve prognostic capabilities at diagnosis, and with further validation has the potential to translate to meaningful clinical practice change.

The quality of life impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns for people living with multiple sclerosis (MS): evidence from the Australian MS Longitudinal Study.

PURPOSE: People living with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) in metropolitan Victoria, Australia, experienced a 112-day, COVID-19-related lockdown in mid-2020. Contemporaneously, Australian PwMS elsewhere experienced minimal restrictions, resulting in a natural experiment. This study investigated the relationships between lockdowns, COVID-19-related adversity, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). It also generated health state utilities (HSU) representative of changes in HRQoL. METHODS: Data were extracted from Australian MS Longitudinal Study surveys, which included the Assessment of Quality of Life-Eight Dimensions (AQoL-8D) instrument and a COVID-19 questionnaire. This COVID-19 questionnaire required participants to rank their COVID-19-related adversity across seven health dimensions. Ordered probits were used to identify variables contributing to adversity. Linear and logit regressions were applied to determine the impact of adversity on HRQoL, defined using AQoL-8D HSUs. Qualitative data were examined thematically. RESULTS: N = 1666 PwMS (average age 58.5; 79.8% female; consistent with the clinical presentation of MS) entered the study, with n = 367 (22.0%) exposed to the 112-day lockdown. Lockdown exposure and disability severity were strongly associated with higher adversity rankings (p < 0.01). Higher adversity rankings were associated with lower HSUs. Participants reporting major adversity, across measured health dimensions, had a mean HSU 0.161 (p < 0.01) lower than participants reporting no adversity and were more likely (OR: 2.716, p < 0.01) to report a clinically significant HSU reduction. Themes in qualitative data supported quantitative findings. CONCLUSIONS: We found that COVID-19-related adversity reduced the HRQoL of PwMS. Our HSU estimates can be used in health economic models to evaluate lockdown cost-effectiveness for people with complex and chronic (mainly neurological) diseases.

Self-reported behaviour change among multiple sclerosis community members and interested laypeople 6 months following participation in a free online course about multiple sclerosis.

ISSUE ADDRESSED: Evaluated the impact of the Understanding Multiple Sclerosis (MS) massive open online course, which was intended to increase understanding and awareness about MS, on self-reported health behaviour change 6 months after course completion. METHODS: Observational cohort study evaluating precourse(baseline) and postcourse (immediately postcourse and six-month follow-up) survey data. The main study outcomes were self-reported health behaviour change; change type; and measurable improvement. We also collected participant characteristic data (eg, age, physical activity). We compared participants who reported health behaviour change at follow-up to those who did not and compared those who improved to those who did not using χ2 and t tests. Participant characteristics, change types and change improvement were described descriptively. Consistency between changes reported immediately postcourse and at the 6-month follow-up was assessed using χ2 tests and textual analysis. RESULTS: N = 303 course completers were included in this study. The study cohort included MS community members (eg, people with MS, healthcare providers) and nonmembers. N = 127 (41.9%) reported behaviour change in ≥1 area at follow-up. Of these, 90 (70.9%) reported a measured change, and of these, 57 (63.3%) showed improvement. The most reported change types were knowledge, exercise/physical activity and diet. N = 81 (63.8% of those reporting a change) reported a change in both immediately and 6 months after course completion, with 72.0% of those that described both changes giving similar responses each time. CONCLUSION: Understanding MS encourages health behaviour change among course completers up to 6 months after course completion. SO WHAT?: An online education intervention can effectively encourage health behaviour change over a 6-month follow-up period, suggesting a transition from acute change to maintenance. The primary mechanisms underpinning this effect are information provision, including both scientific evidence and lived experience, and goal-setting activities and discussions.

Multiple sclerosis mortality in New Zealand: a nationwide prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Mortality data from Europe and North America show a shorter life expectancy for people with multiple sclerosis (MS). It is not known if a similar mortality risk exists in the southern hemisphere. We analysed the mortality outcomes of a comprehensive New Zealand (NZ) MS cohort, 15 years postrecruitment. METHODS: All participants of the nationwide 2006 NZ MS prevalence study were included and mortality outcomes were compared with life table data from the NZ population using classic survival analyses, standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and excess death rates (EDRs). RESULTS: Of 2909 MS participants, 844 (29%) were deceased at the end of the 15-year study period. Median survival age for the MS cohort was 79.4 years (78.5, 80.3), compared with 86.6 years (85.5, 87.7) for the age-matched and sex-matched NZ population. The overall SMR was 1.9 (1.8, 2.1)). Symptom onset between 21 and 30 years corresponded to an SMR of 2.8 and a median survival age 9.8 years lower than the NZ population. Progressive-onset disease was associated with a survival gap of 9 years compared with 5.7 years for relapsing onset. The EDR for those diagnosed in 1997-2006 was 3.2 (2.6, 3.9) compared with 7.8 (5.8, 10.3) for those diagnosed between 1967 and 1976. CONCLUSIONS: New Zealanders with MS have a median survival age 7.2 years lower than the general population and twice the mortality risk. The survival gap was greater for progressive-onset disease and for those with an early age of onset.

Using qualitative free-text data to investigate the lived experience of the COVID-19 pandemic for a large cohort of Australians with different multiple sclerosis related disability levels.

BACKGROUND: No large-scale qualitative studies have investigated the lived experience of people living with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) during the pandemic according to their disability level. We used qualitative research methods to investigate the lived experience of a large cohort of Australians living with differing multiple sclerosis (MS)-related disability levels during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also provided useful contextualisation to existing quantitative work. METHODS: This was a retrospective survey-based mixed-methods cohort study. A quality-of-life study was conducted within the Australian MS Longitudinal Study during the pandemic. Disability severity was calculated using the Patient Determined Disease Steps. Qualitative free-text data regarding COVID-19 impacts was collected/analysed for word frequency and also thematically (inductively/deductively using sophisticated grounded theory) using NVivo software. We also triangulated word frequency with emerging themes. RESULTS: N=509 PwMS participated providing n=22 530 words of COVID-19-specific data. Disability severity could be calculated for n=501 PwMS. The word 'working' was important for PwMS with no disability, and 'support' and 'isolation' for higher disability levels. For PwMS with milder disability, thematic analysis established that multitasking increased stress levels, particularly if working from home (WFH) and home-schooling children. If not multitasking, WFH was beneficial for managing fatigue. PwMS with severe disability raised increased social isolation as a concern including prepandemic isolation. CONCLUSIONS: We found negative impacts of multitasking and social isolation for PwMS during the pandemic. WFH was identified as beneficial for some. We recommend targeted resourcing decisions for PwMS in future pandemics including child-care relief and interventions to reduce social isolation and suggest that these could be incorporated into some form of advanced care planning. As the nature of work changes postpandemic, we also recommend a detailed investigation of WFH for PwMS including providing tailored employment assistance.

Genetically determined serum serine level has a novel causal effect on multiple sclerosis risk and predicts disability progression.

BACKGROUND: There are currently no specific biomarkers for multiple sclerosis (MS). Identifying robust biomarkers for MS is crucial to improve disease diagnosis and management. METHODS: This study first used six Mendelian randomisation methods to assess causal relationship of 174 metabolites with MS, incorporating data from European-ancestry metabolomics (n=8569-86 507) and MS (n=14 802 MS cases, 26 703 controls) genomewide association studies. Genetic scores for identified causal metabolite(s) were then computed to predict MS disability progression in an independent longitudinal cohort (AusLong study) of 203 MS cases with up to 15-year follow-up. RESULTS: We found a novel genetic causal effect of serine on MS onset (OR=1.67, 95% CI 1.51 to 1.84, p=1.73×10-20), such that individuals whose serine level is 1 SD above the population mean will have 1.67 times the risk of developing MS. This is robust across all sensitivity methods (OR ranges from 1.49 to 1.67). In an independent longitudinal MS cohort, we then constructed time-dynamic and time-fixed genetic scores based on serine genetic instrument single-nucleotide polymorphisms, where higher scores for raised serum serine level were associated with increased risk of disability worsening, especially in the time-dynamic model (RR=1.25, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.42, p=7.52×10-4). CONCLUSIONS: These findings support investigating serine as an important candidate biomarker for MS onset and disability progression.

A pro-inflammatory diet in people with multiple sclerosis is associated with an increased rate of relapse and increased FLAIR lesion volume on MRI in early multiple sclerosis: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: A pro-inflammatory diet has been posited to induce chronic inflammation within the central nervous system (CNS), and multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory disease of the CNS. OBJECTIVE: We examined whether Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII®)) scores are associated with measures of MS progression and inflammatory activity. METHODS: A cohort with a first clinical diagnosis of CNS demyelination was followed annually (10 years, n = 223). At baseline, 5- and 10-year reviews, DII and energy-adjusted DII (E-DIITM) scores were calculated (food frequency questionnaire) and assessed as predictors of relapses, annualised change in disability (Expanded Disability Status Scale) and two magnetic resonance imaging measures; fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) lesion volume and black hole lesion volume. RESULTS: A more pro-inflammatory diet was associated with a higher relapse risk (highest vs. lowest E-DII quartile: hazard ratio = 2.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -1.16, 4.33, p = 0.02). When we limited analyses to those assessed on the same manufacturer of scanner and those with a first demyelinating event at study entry (to reduce error and disease heterogeneity), an association between E-DII score and FLAIR lesion volume was evident (ß = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.04, 0.72, p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: There is a longitudinal association between a higher DII and a worsening in relapse rate and periventricular FLAIR lesion volume in people with MS.

Risk of a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system demyelination in relation to human herpesviruses in the context of Epstein-Barr virus.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is implicated in multiple sclerosis (MS) risk; evidence for other herpesviruses is inconsistent. Here, we test blood markers of infection with human herpesvirus 6 (HHV-6), varicella zoster virus (VZV), and cytomegalovirus (CMV) as risk factors for a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system demyelination (FCD) in the context of markers of EBV infection. METHODS: In the Ausimmune case-control study, cases had an FCD, and population controls were matched on age, sex, and study region. We quantified HHV-6- and VZV-DNA load in whole blood and HHV-6, VZV, and CMV antibodies in serum. Conditional logistic regression tested associations with FCD risk, adjusting for Epstein-Barr nuclear antigen (EBNA) IgG, EBV-DNA load, and other covariates. RESULTS: In 204 FCD cases and 215 matched controls, only HHV-6-DNA load (positive vs. negative) was associated with FCD risk (adjusted odds ratio = 2.20, 95% confidence interval = 1.08-4.46, p = 0.03). Only EBNA IgG and HHV-6-DNA positivity were retained in a predictive model of FCD risk; the combination had a stronger association than either alone. CMV-specific IgG concentration modified the association between an MS risk-related human leucocyte antigen gene and FCD risk. Six cases and one control had very high HHV-6-DNA load (>1.0 × 106 copies/mL). CONCLUSIONS: HHV-6-DNA positivity and high load (possibly due to inherited HHV-6 chromosomal integration) were associated with increased FCD risk, particularly in association with markers of EBV infection. With growing interest in prevention/management of MS through EBV-related pathways, there should be additional consideration of the role of HHV-6 infection.

Estimating the disutility of relapse in relapsing-remitting and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis using the EQ-5D-5L, AQoL-8D, EQ-5D-5L-psychosocial, and SF-6D: implications for health economic evaluation models.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Relapses are an important clinical feature of multiple sclerosis (MS) that result in temporary negative changes in quality of life (QoL), measured by health state utilities (HSUs) (disutilities). We aimed to quantify disutilities of relapse in relapsing remitting MS (RRMS), secondary progressive MS (SPMS), and relapse onset MS [ROMS (including both RRMS and SPMS)] and examine these values by disability severity using four multi-attribute utility instruments (MAUIs). METHODS: We estimated (crude and adjusted and stratified by disability severity) disutilities (representing the mean difference in HSUs of 'relapse' and 'no relapse' groups as well as 'unsure' and 'no relapse' groups) in RRMS (n = 1056), SPMS (n = 239), and ROMS (n = 1295) cohorts from the Australian MS Longitudinal Study's 2020 QoL survey, using the EQ-5D-5L, AQoL-8D, EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial, and SF-6D MAUIs. RESULTS: Adjusted mean overall disutilities of relapse in RMSS/SPMS/ROMS were - 0.101/- 0.149/- 0.129 (EQ-5D-5L), - 0.092/- 0.167/- 0.113 (AQoL-8D), - 0.080/- 0.139/- 0.097 (EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial), and - 0.116/- 0.161/- 0.130 (SF-6D), approximately 1.5 times higher in SPMS than in RRMS, in all MAUI. All estimates were statistically significant and/or clinically meaningful. Adjusted disutilities of RRMS and ROMS demonstrated a U-shaped relationship between relapse disutilities and disability severity. Relapse disutilities were higher in 'severe' disability than 'mild' and 'moderate' in the SPMS cohort. CONCLUSION: MS-related relapses are associated with substantial utility decrements. As the type and severity of MS influence disutility of relapse, the use of disability severity and MS-type-specific disutility inputs is recommended in future health economic evaluations of MS. Our study supports relapse management and prevention as major mechanisms to improve QoL in people with MS.

Validation of the EQ-5D-5L and psychosocial bolt-ons in a large cohort of people living with multiple sclerosis in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory, neurodegenerative disease of the central nervous system which results in disability over time and reduced quality of life. To increase the sensitivity of the EQ-5D-5L for psychosocial health, four bolt-on items from the AQoL-8D were used to create the nine-item EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial. We aimed to externally validate the EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial in a large cohort of people with MS (pwMS) and explore the discriminatory power of the new instrument with EQ-5D-5L/AQoL-8D. METHODS: A large representative sample from the Australian MS Longitudinal Study completed the AQoL-8D and EQ-5D-5L (including EQ VAS) and both instruments health state utilities (HSUs) were scored using Australian tariffs. Sociodemographic/clinical data were also collected. External validity of EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial scoring algorithm was assessed with mean absolute errors (MAE) and Spearman's correlation coefficient. Discriminatory sensitivity was assessed with an examination of ceiling/floor effects, and disability severity classifications. RESULTS: Among 1683 participants (mean age: 58.6 years; 80% female), over half (55%) had moderate or severe disability. MAE (0.063) and the distribution of the prediction error were similar to the original development study. Mean (± standard deviation) HSUs were EQ-5D-5L: 0.58 ± 0.32, EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial 0.62 ± 0.29, and AQoL-8D: 0.63 ± 0.20. N = 157 (10%) scored perfect health (i.e. HSU = 1.0) on the EQ-5D-5L, but reported a mean HSU of 0.90 on the alternative instruments. The Sleep bolt-on dimension was particularly important for pwMS. CONCLUSIONS: The EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial is more sensitive than the EQ-5D-5L in pwMS whose HSUs approach those reflecting full health. When respondent burden is taken into account, the EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial is preferential to the AQoL-8D. We suggest a larger confirmatory study comparing all prevalent multi-attribute utility instruments for pwMS.